NIO Stock between fundamentals, the macro environment and stock investor psychology.
Пікірлер: 104
@jimmytran5113 ай бұрын
Wow. Great video Marcel. You should do more videos!!. I am tired of Mr P. So great to hear from you again
@sabinaabrahim77863 ай бұрын
Mr P. Is shorting nio stock all the time so he doesn’t cares
@rl65383 ай бұрын
@@sabinaabrahim7786 😁🤣😂
@kevn993 ай бұрын
Try listening to Money Making Mitch the crackpot from Wealthy Mindset. 😂😂😂. Makes Mr P. sound like a genius.
@tm4s4263 ай бұрын
I can’t even stand seeing Mr.Ps face anymore
@djknaz68053 ай бұрын
Why would you even waste time with Mr P his pants? Its like a bad comedy act.
@dshu19983 ай бұрын
Interesting to see where we have been. It is depression all right. So many macro factors that NIO has no control over. Good news is they are executing and doing all the rights things. Future looks good and can't come soon enough.
@Floorguy10003 ай бұрын
Marcel: LOVE the year by year large view comparison. If I was doing a pitch deck for institutional interest, this is would be my approach. In my strong opinion, the stock price will rebound very sharply at some point, and it will be much earlier than people expect. There is a tremendous amount of risk capital out there that wants to be first ... and they will jump in long before things become more settled, proven, and obvious.
@SurinderSingh-l6q3 ай бұрын
Any chance for NIO to go above $5.00 in coming days. NIO should be or must be above 10++++ at the end of Dec. 2024 in my opinion. Any suggestions
@markocean28113 ай бұрын
Like it or not, as an investment NIO is down 62% this year. $10,000 is worth $3,800. Aside from a crappy investment it has great products.
@ryuaan3 ай бұрын
Great rundown of key Marco points affecting NIO stock. Well done.
@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity3 ай бұрын
Glad you enjoyed it
@valanz_3 ай бұрын
Good summary. Interesting though, that now your expectation of growth for 2024 is 50%, meaning that the guidance of ~250K you said won't be reached in your views, has changed. There is so much uncertainty on the revenue side of NIO Power's partners, that NIO could easily have a catalyst on unexpected surprise, but it won't happen until 2026-2027, beside, ET9 will put NIO on the map, again, if the launch is sucessful. Reaching 250K this year, will open investors eyes again and with Onvo sales, 2025 will continue the growth. is an easy Hold.
@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity3 ай бұрын
I am not expecting 50% in 2024. My personal case is below that, but like I said in the video at current Year to date data we are trending at 50% YoY growth but I think that’s largely due to the Q2 base effect.
@valanz_3 ай бұрын
@@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity 👍
@valanz_3 ай бұрын
@@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity 👍
@fredericracine63233 ай бұрын
Greetings from Canada, I think you are too pessimistic. Market is always forward looking. 1) Onvo and Firefly each sold at each at 10 000 cars per month and NIO at 22 000 - 27 000, which will gave us a range of 42 000 - 46 000 by mid 2025 2) swap will be fully profitable at avr 60 swaps per day / around 900 000 cars on the road that will be reach probably end of 2025 3) NIO don’t need europ in the short term, there is no market for 80 000 $ EU Chinese cars 4) most important NIO need to cut R&D till they break even or profitability. They can achieve the following, the rest of the catalysts will be gravy : Middle East, partnerships / US, thechnology selling, etc. There is no sens valuating this company at cash in the bank account. The only risk is another dilution …
@jamesle41183 ай бұрын
When it was 69 dollars, I thought I was so close to quit my job, now it seems so far away.
@shijersey83363 ай бұрын
did you wait to see it surpassing $100?
@brianteague443 ай бұрын
Average down
@bruhjale3 ай бұрын
Same here. I’m kicking myself for not selling then :(
@cyrusjafari39683 ай бұрын
thanks for your realistic analysis of NIO
@MegaTonyng3 ай бұрын
Good, clear measured analysis. R&D spend is still too high on current revenue projections. Market is concerned with potential further dilution.
@asianfish13 ай бұрын
The market pump the EV sector. Now they pump th AI sector. Next the will pump the biopharmaceuticals. Then back to EV.
@florianmouchette86083 ай бұрын
Would you have few biopharma stocks to advice please ?
@asianfish13 ай бұрын
@@florianmouchette8608 no sir. Not wanting to be risking your money.
@tyronelowe70903 ай бұрын
Thanks for your data and analysis. We are concerned about the tariff pressures being applied by the West. We hope to follow more information on NIO's domestic and international business plans
@nio41283 ай бұрын
Thank you Marcel 👏
@CountryBoyKitchen3 ай бұрын
Thank you as always! How long are you planning on holding Nio until you throw in the towel?
@MegaTonyng3 ай бұрын
Anyone know what % tariffs/tax China poses on imported cars?
@KamranKhan-eb5qg3 ай бұрын
this video does not anything about battery swap partners, revenue generate from battery swapping. nio been signing partnerships left and right and eventually those partnerships will generate revenue for company. nio is not only about car sales. and this content creator seems to have lack of knowledge on company business model.
@stevekoepke80893 ай бұрын
Except the development of the forever battery is close and swaps will not be needed
@TheZwevegemsb3 ай бұрын
Should had mentioned outstanding shares aswell. Praying for nio to rebound in 2024
@06baty3 ай бұрын
Now up to 1,000 shares. Will sit on this for a while
@AliAlizadah-k2k3 ай бұрын
Thanks friend
@lorenzoandujo10123 ай бұрын
Thank you
@frederiklarsen69463 ай бұрын
Please make more videos Marcel❤
@henpil70983 ай бұрын
7 more qtr left 😂
@PGD..3 ай бұрын
🤡🤡🤡🤡
@mikes5783 ай бұрын
Don’t buy this stock
@bertvansteenkiste38433 ай бұрын
2.5$ coming
@ssid39663 ай бұрын
You better sell now and run away !
@UniZi3 ай бұрын
@@ssid3966exactly, don’t get too greedy, what goes around comes around
@nio41283 ай бұрын
I hope so! I will buy another thousand shares 🎉
@aliensofgermany82703 ай бұрын
@@ssid3966😂😂😂
@LetsLearnEconomic3 ай бұрын
I doubt it personally, but if it did I'd load up a lot and probably sell off other stocks even if they lost half there value in the event the market had a giant correction. The stock would be a good bet for me
@UdiKanfi3 ай бұрын
So what NIO Stock price in 27?
@iwanmuzaki80493 ай бұрын
It deserves a 20b M.C
@trussmonkey59103 ай бұрын
NIO has sold over 500,000 EV's to date. ONVO presales are way above expectations according to Willian Li. Possibly around 250,000 at this point. The majority of the Chinese population lives in giant apartment buildings where home charging is not possible. ONVO is affordable and with battery swap they solved this problem for the majority of their population. NIO's problem is retrofitting their Gen 2 swap stations to accept ONVO. Good problems to have.
@djknaz68053 ай бұрын
Dont hold your breath for $3.60. Under $4.20 has a zillion buy orders waiting. Somebody has to sell shares for $3.60 and good luck finding that stooge(s) because it wont happen.
@eyefromsky-fr1no3 ай бұрын
Where are you getting 250k from that's delusional
@ashdaro40433 ай бұрын
We have heard this BS all before and that is exactly what it is. William Li has lost the plot. Should sell NIO and focus on selling fortune cookies .
@trussmonkey59103 ай бұрын
@@eyefromsky-fr1no It's speculation. Willian Li said they expect to sell 100,000 pre orders and he also said they exceeded their estimate by 2-3X.
@leeme1793 ай бұрын
as per William Li ONVO target was 20K per month so 240K per year, if the demand/preorder is above expectation so maybe above 250k per year
@amir_investor62323 ай бұрын
Great analysis with details. I also believe that NIO in 2026 can reach the point of Break-even. I also think If Europe didn't increase the tariffs, we might have seen it earlier. In my opinion, NIO should focus mostly on the countries which are truly welcoming NIO's technologies & products
@brianteague443 ай бұрын
I love NIO. Buying alot to average down
@niosanfrancisco3 ай бұрын
The trend is your friend. Check your emotions at the door and wake up in a few years to a likely surprise. Appreciate the great video.
@LoganDanforth-ne5gn3 ай бұрын
Excellent video. As someone said earlier more videos please! Truth without the hype :)
@AndreaDeBernardi3 ай бұрын
If an intercontinental ballistic missile is heading your way, the size and composition of your portfolio becomes irrelevant. Thus, from a purely financial perspective, you should largely ignore existential risk. Great video
@DanR-v1t3 ай бұрын
Thanks for the video, always look forward to your calmly delivered analysis 👍
@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity3 ай бұрын
Much appreciated!
@shijersey83363 ай бұрын
现在其实看基本面已经没大意义了,主要是人们不再相信也没有耐心了,除非它能证明收支平衡并且盈利。
@jessicaknoll4700Ай бұрын
Nio will be a big player no doubt. Now is the time to get in!
@john00123Ай бұрын
only time can tell.
@jessicaknoll4700Ай бұрын
True.
@anthonypayne8106Ай бұрын
To be honest, I’m not missing this opportunity with Nio.
@nicolasfrankboehmer22403 ай бұрын
Thanx for the video. You are stating "re-accelerating" at the Macro Level in China. With all the information and feedback I get from China I understand the official figures not displaying the recent economical and social difficulties in China, not only in real estate but throughout the all markets particularly in the tech sector and the workforces of all levels. How do you value this in?
@danawc55953 ай бұрын
Lots and lots of hypotheses Hope for the best but no more 2019 easy money liquidity
@nobigdealllll3 ай бұрын
Great summary and prediction. Thanks so much Marcel. To me China is getting weaker bit by bit. America seems keeping up the all-time highs, but God knows one day the country would be hit by the high interest rates. The only truth is that there is no winner and people are suffering.
@littlerickyromaniak1383 ай бұрын
Really good Analyst
@Burgermonster3 ай бұрын
Good to put things in historical perspective. COVID and wars didn't help with supply chain and interest issues. I think management has been pretty adept though buying the factories, making their own chips, adding new product lines, new partners, etc. They are adjusting. I think you're spot on with the chart and when things will possibly turn around. They need to begin showing some break-even quarters before the stock price recovers, but this is a hold for me (and a buying the dip time). Thanks for showing your perspective.👍
@telirai78323 ай бұрын
Excellent analysis. Only NIO video from youtube I am following. I mostly ignore the rest.
@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity3 ай бұрын
I appreciate that!
@I_Can_See_You_9523 ай бұрын
I love this video. It sets the right expectations and it is very pragmatic. In a nutshell, don’t expect much from the stock before 2 years from now
@aliensofgermany82703 ай бұрын
Thanks for qualitative efforts ❤
@LetsLearnEconomic3 ай бұрын
Thank you for the video. I think this was a good break down on why growth and spec stocks moved the way that they did.
@gildasarnaud-gallin5963 ай бұрын
Well waiting for Onvo pre- sells first.
@Slaytheday3883 ай бұрын
Why do high American interest rates matter for a Chinese stock?
@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity3 ай бұрын
because it soaks USD investments out of emerging markets and into perceived safe heaven USD assets. Also high rates mean less appetite for risk assets such as Chinese equities, especially it expected cash flows are far out in the future, like with unprofitable names like NIO is the case. Its a matter of opportunity cost and risk free rate.
@rainerluthershelley51313 ай бұрын
Thanks Marcel.
@relax-ie3mp3 ай бұрын
Marcel, what's the cash flow looking like? Is it a race to turn it to cash flow positive before running out of cash with all the cap exp spend on Onvo, Firefly, Nio house, Nio phone, and swap stations? I closed my eyes and doubled down on triple witch expiration to average down. Wish me luck. Down lots right now.
@pewwf03 ай бұрын
I was taking didi (BYD Qin L I think) in Beijing today trying to spot NIO cars, but I didn’t see any so far. I saw some Li n Xpeng cars, but physical appearance wise was meh. Lastly, the cab BYD range was 900km++ I was shocked it’s probably a hybrid
@CapeFear13 ай бұрын
The writing is on the wall. Despite everybody "thinking the stock price should be higher", this is a penny stock. Those investors still thinking and hoping they are going to be millionaires from NIO are more likely to lose their entire investment than get rich from NIO. Im one of them. Down 68 percent total investment in NIO and I've been in for 4 years, never sold a single share, and lowered by DCA many times by buying on the dip. It's gotten me nowhere. This is a terrible investment and not likely to get any better. Any you tuber keeps citing factor A,B,C, D on why they are sure NIO will succeed are just blowing hot air. Proof is in the stock price.
@KNine3622 күн бұрын
Stock price is not the company and the company is not the stock price, any true investor knows that. I’ve been invested in this stock since 2020 before the big run, I’m also still invested because the company growth potential is through the roof, but most importantly the business model is bulletproof. Nio will be here for a long time. So what the stock price is down, if you really did your research on the business you would know Nio is getting better and bigger. The great depression and great recession had major dips when we were in the moment, now when we look at the chart they look like tiny dips…. What I’m tryna say is look at the bigger picture or sell the stock. Very simple
@CapeFear122 күн бұрын
@KNine36 When someone says the stock price is not the company that is code for I screwed up by investing in NIO. LOL how much are you down? Nio is a crappy investment. Hope I get my money back. It's crap.
@brendonsullivan33543 ай бұрын
This needs a high profile influencer to hype it up to make it move lol
@alan.p.3183 ай бұрын
Haven't reach the real low yet in a bigger picture 😮
@chaimalamute3 ай бұрын
Can you make a new prediction ?
@TheBandageCo3 ай бұрын
American money is leaving China there is zero apatite for Chinese stocks especially over this side of the planet where ev’s have zero resale value, in our country dealers aren’t even talking second hand ev’s they don’t want to go near then. Nio in fairness can solve a problem with battery swap but I think we’re many many many years away from seeing this stock even go past $10 , dilution is imminent and this will further trash the stock, they even state this in there report and any savvy investor who read it would stay well clear of this stock. My initial investment on this was a 5 year plan and that now looks to be extended to 10 years, I’ll get it back but it will be a painful journey. Just thank my lucky stars I didn’t buy this thing when it was at 60, I’m sub $20 thankfully.
@brendonsullivan33543 ай бұрын
My average is about $35 so way under water. I think when interest rates are cut which will happen soon and misinformation about evs disappears nio will rise. Everything goes full circle and globally we are going electric.
@jamesp53013 ай бұрын
The 150kwh battery? I’m pretty sure that’s a failure that shows Nio can’t abandon dead ends
@johnpowell55383 ай бұрын
NIO stock sucks. Bottom line. They could sell 20,000,000 cars this year and the stock will still be $5 in my opinion. The only people making money on NIO are management
@thomaswolek40173 ай бұрын
Another 🤡🤡 in the depression fase 😂😂
@johnpowell55383 ай бұрын
@@thomaswolek4017 put on some glasses. This stock has done nothing for 5 years.