No Rate Cut: Housing Market Blow. 5 Fact Friday 21 June 24 Live with Stiggy

It's 5 Fact Friday again 21 Jun 2024. Another week of bumper news in the housing and rental markets. Affordability improving? Great. Transaction volumes slipping? Boooo.
Links to all sources in this video:
mhwc.co.uk/5-fact-friday/rate...
All my links: linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie

[@TheTotalPackage-qo5gx]

I’ve been watching this channel for a few years and it is excellent in my opinion. I have a lot of respect for Charlie and Housing Stig they both speak a lot of sense. Thank you.

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

Thanks and you're welcome!

[@Jimbo8012]

I voted for Corbyn in 2017 and 2019. I'm not a traditional Labour voter or a socialist or even particularly left wing. I've voted Labour twice, Lib Dems in 2005 and 2010, Tories in 2001 and Greens in 2015. I'm a floating voter. I didn't vote for Corbyn because I thought he was a particularly good leader or that he'd be a great PM but because he's not a fucking sociopath like most politicians. He just seems a nice guy who's a popular local MP and you know what, we could do with nicer people being elevated into positions of responsibility. I'm not voting for Starmer's Labour because a) I don't think Labour now stand for anything and b) I don't trust Starmer as far as I could throw him. Just a pathological liar and I don't want someone like this as PM. I'm voting independent this time. She's an NHS nurse and has her heart in the right place. I think we need disruption and more good independents in Westminster. I'd also like to see all the third parties (Liberals, SNP, Green, Workers and even Reform) get many more seats than they have now.

[@sjtfunclub]

We need to reform the election system then voters like us can have more of an impact.

[@Tony_Teacake]

I think immigration does have a affect on house prices in some areas. A lot of people from Hong Kong have been buying houses in South Manchester - Cheshire borders in the last few years bidding prices up.

[@mduffy4861]

Same in Berkshire 💯

[@scarlettspear7447]

Thank you, Charlie. I love Five Fact Friday. Best broadcast of the week, although I am very keen on all the other work too! As your self-proclaimed number-one fan should be.!!

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

Glad you enjoy it!

[@user-io2et5bv2s]

IF, there’s a rate cut this year (debatable), it will come too late to salvage the housing market selling prices during 2024.

[@OJSIMPSONRAP]

A big if. I predict a rate cut won't happen in August. BOE forecasted inflation to increase again during the second half of this year. It was on their charts 2 months ago.

[@paulstoner8672]

love the wording on ONS this second month in a row around 1.7% down a month is "slightly" if this continued for a year its a 20% drop "First-time buyers in Portsmouth paid £230,000 on average in April 2024 The provisional average price paid by first-time buyers was £230,000 in April 2024. This was slightly lower than the revised April 2023 average of £235,000."

[@user-eg7nt1bn1u]

with average salaries around 35k it shows the insanity when Reform talk about stamp duty removal on properties costing 750k as this assumes many people will qualify. This is 20x average salary.

[@andrewg9677]

Costing up to 750k. So it obviously includes all properties within the reach of average salary.

[@missjane782]

This would be a very average property in London for example

[@GT-od9nn]

@@andrewg9677 That sounds good, right? Remember though, what happened after the last stamp duty jubilee: house prices went up and up. This type of policy only helps increase asset values and drive them out of the reach of ordinary people. It also increases speculative purchases at a time when we need to switch from an asset base economy to a productive one.

[@kevinhelton3489]

Put an offer 7% over home report value 3 weeks ago. Ayrshire, Scotland. It was rejected as interest was strong. My solicitor has told me no further notes or interest or offers have been submitted to date. Stubborn seller not budging.

[@Lookup2Wakeup]

Increase your offer then .... 🙂

[@user-io2et5bv2s]

Try that down here around Norfolk, Cambridgeshire and Suffolk and they will bite your hand off. A friend of ours has just sold their elderly mother's detached bungalow (needs work) to a housing company for £160k. It was valued at £275k 2 years ago and the price has been falling ever since.

[@Lookup2Wakeup]

​@@user-io2et5bv2sThat sounds a bargain now ..... 😮

[@LivingALife4Me]

They will still be on the market in 6 months. Leave it with interest noted and keep looking

[@kevinhelton3489]

​@Lookup2Wakeup I offered the max I was willing to pay for that property. I'm comfortable walking away. All the best to the seller. Someone will pay what he wants, it just won't be me.

[@delgriffithification]

The argument that immigration doesn't effect house prices because people arriving don't buy houses is silly. That means it definitely does effect house prices but there is a delay. Maybe they take 10-20 years to buy, maybe their kids buy but it does effect house prices eventually.

[@iplaywaytoomuch]

Not to mention by shoring up rental demand it increases demand for BTL

[@delgriffithification]

I own my house as do my neighbours. They are from, in no particular order, Pakistan,Hong Kong, Poland, Brazil. Oh, and my wife is Peruvian and my mum is from Ireland. I'm pretty sure immigration does effect house prices! 😂

[@stevo728822]

QBE is an Australian company. There have been a lot of Australian building companies going bankrupt.

[@sahark4353]

What about foreign buyers that’s a big reason why esp London market is crazy

[@stevo728822]

You missed the biggest factor of all...declining household size. 30% of households are now single households and growing each year.

[@jj-rh4sc]

I love democracy. You, yes you voted for Corbyn on a local mater. Only in the uk would anyone understand that. Looking at the construction insolvency data i think you are right . This was happening a few months ago. Maybe a bigger reason for an early election timing . Company data lag is 2 months at best. This would put us back to may. Investments ie insurance are definitely pulling out. The next government has a big hill to climb.

[@user-rp5fh7bb5x]

I think we should in some way get rid of stamp duty and have some sort of tax on the property itself like every year like some other countries do. This would also stop a big lump sum to be paid when you buy a property. Even paying a Tax every year, they should then think of getting rid of the inheritance or lowering the 40% Tax threshold, as then no one will mind paying a less tax and not really bother trying to get out of paying inheritance Tax.

[@toiletrollholder]

There's no reason to pay any tax on our home, whether stamp duty or annual. 😮

[@tourrhythmgolf-3to1]

why is nobody talking about the liz truss stamp duty holiday that expires Apr 25?

[@GGfr-ki6pn]

Yes, stamp duty threshold reverting to £125,000 will not help sales.

[@tourrhythmgolf-3to1]

@@GGfr-ki6pn will not help anyone apart from Rachel Reeves. Tax Tax Tax the middle and give it to illegal migrants......

[@sarahwhyld5596]

I agree Charlie. The public blindly listen to main Media about house prices/market and the Media has become lazy in fact checking before they issue their stoies and just repeat Rightmoves stance. Public willingly believe anything that supports what they want to hear. The only people who benefit of high prices are mortgage lenders, government (stamp duty collection) and estate agents earning commission. Downsizers, flippers, not good for 90% if population. Rightmove needs a solid competitor Charlie.

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

Working on it, but Rome wasn't built in a day etc...! :o)

[@ribz747]

50:15 You can be politically neutral, not a ring-winger, and still end up voting for Reform. Free world, vote as you please. Only here for your & Stig's take on housing!

[@mmv3481]

In a lot of other countries UK people ie non native people are not allowed to buy property, full stop; only rent. Or they have strict immigration rules like Singapore has a 60% tax at purchase for foreigners and 65% for an entity or trust. This needs to be replicated in the UK

[@Reverend-Rodger]

Rates don't directly affect me right now as I'm staircasing with cash up from 50% to 60% share in my house with the local housing association. Lower valuations over the next 4 RICS valuations would suit me, either way my future exposure will be limited only by my own ambition. Here's hoping for at least 5 years of stability for all of us. 🍷Cheers

[@davidmullins8193]

Your survey was intentionally misleading."immigration alone" was the only option with "alone" on it. Establishment boy Charlie?

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

No, just did it in a hurry. Would reword it if I was doing it again.

[@davidmullins8193]

I appreciate your reply Charlie and respect your work.​@MovingHomewithCharlie

[@kd3446]

Stamp duty ? Get rid of it in increments say ivermectin Parton 10 years or 20 years that the house prices would stay more stable….

[@user-mn4zv1cz1l]

Not a lot of sense as the predictions are completely wrong but it does get clicks from the hopeful followers. Deluded in my view

[@Lookup2Wakeup]

I have a second home in South Hams, Devon to sell. I'm waiting for the market to improve (for sellers) before I put it on the market. So maybe an improvement after the election or next Spring? ..... 🤔

[@LivingALife4Me]

Really feel that you will be waiting a long time. There has been a lot of employment kept going by borrowed money. All interest has to be repaid even by the government. There is a lot of homes that are still empty and not on the market and not holiday homes or second homes. Look at the results of the agents around you. I looked for who got close to the valuation not who valued the highest and who was good at completing sales. Moved many times.

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

What makes you think the market will improve any time soon? Is there something you're expecting to happen in the economy, or just an autumn uptick? I don't expect either. In my view, especially knowing Devon, the longer you wait the less you will get.

[@missjane782]

Lol good luck 😂

[@LivingALife4Me]

@@MovingHomewithCharlie watched the housing market from being a child myself and see the patterns which follow many things. Did well myself as the non working side of a married couple as I knew what to buy and what to spend money on. Now single and dont have the tools and half of the skills for renovation plus the ill health. I still know that I will do well. Improvement is going to take at least 8 years

[@Nia-mac]

? Charlie: The Greens appear to have the most progressive policy on inequality, 1% tax on interest on wealth over £10 million. Don’t you think this would have an impact the long term housing market?

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

Perhaps yes, but they have zero chance of even being in opposition

[@Nia-mac]

@@MovingHomewithCharlie I totally concede that, but also wish to believe that every vote counts and change might be achieved. This is a surprisingly difficult election and I have not yet decided who I’d vote for other than definitely not conservative or reform/maga-moron.

[@GGfr-ki6pn]

All taxes are regressive, we all know that progressive means socialist.

[@Lookup2Wakeup]

Biass, my a** ..... 😂

[@shimmime]

Housing Stig's reason for why the housing market is up sh*t creek makes a lot of sense to me. But I think also that the high rents make buying a home more desirable. I looked at the houses for sale at my local estate agent's just now and the asking prices were sky high as ever, so there are people out there maxing out or else they wouldn't put the houses on the market for those prices.

[@nancyruby3449]

Enjoy the videos and opinions though not sure why keep referring to other over optimistic forecasts (this channels expected average slide of 35% looks to be out and in error by at least 30%) - all mainstream forecasts point to a flat market over the next year until interest rates/mortgages gradually come down

[@OJSIMPSONRAP]

Mainstream is wrong. They use Rightmove's asking price index to make false judgements. The pumped up asking prices are a bubble ready to pop with the economy.

[@ph8077]

One thing is for certain....you're more of a left or right winger than Phil Foden! 😁

[@kd3446]

Just had friend call me about her five year fixed coming to an end. she is going to have to sell, her mortgage is going to be nearly tripled…..she won’t get a mortgage again at her age…I mention to her May be let out 2 rooms to help cover the cost….. The option is to get repossessed or to give up her job and sign on….the government can pay the interest….

[@garethwilliams4467]

"...people say a lot of shit". Oh the irony on this stream!

[@Nia-mac]

Emphasise the ass… no reform voters in my northerly area. When times are hard the north swing left and the south (of UK) swing right.

[@garethwilliams4467]

It may help if you dedicate your life to being happy. None of this changing the world crap

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

Already done and achieved some time ago. Striving to help others as a purpose in life helps with being happy. Not doing so and wallowing selfishly in wealth leads to self loathing.

[@garethwilliams4467]

@@MovingHomewithCharlie trust me wallowing in wealth does not lead to self loathing... trust me :). You're not actually helping that many ... I' mean a few tidbits of advice here and there ... but what do yo actually think you're going to change ?

[@kquat7899]

Unfortunately your take on landlords today is pure shit. There are no free markets for one thing...

[@OJSIMPSONRAP]

Why do you say that?

[@richardlongmuir8348]

You’re a noisy outlier!

[@garethwilliams4467]

No one thinks youre a right winger. Just a chip on your shoulder about those who have wealth. All this talk of "redistribution" and "fairer".

[@MovingHomewithCharlie]

Who said redistribution? I have never said that nor do I believe in it. Fairer? Yes, absolutely.

[@garethwilliams4467]

@@MovingHomewithCharlie how would you have a "fairer" society without "redistribution" ? One you have convinced everyone that your version of fair ...is, well .... fairer.

[@GrahamGroovyUK]

Well with all the sh*t going on (And much more to come) I dug out my old walkman and popped on Haysi Fantayzee....... Good Times Come To Me Now....... Shiny, Shiny, Bad Times Behind Me...... It's all good!