Not Much Wrong With ADM Dividend Stock

[@dylanmoris6211]

My portfolio doesn’t just cater to dividend stocks. I hold $VFIAX (S&P 500 index fund) in my Roth IRA and $VTI (Total Stock Market ETF) in my taxable brokerage account. Two of my largest holdings. The individual dividend stock positions all complement the index holdings.

[@KelvinWallace]

I think the safest strategy is to diversify investments. Like spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown

[@Markjohnson09]

I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.

[@RichardBayer]

This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

[@Markjohnson09]

Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky ” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.

[@RichardBayer]

Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

[@Alex-qw7iz]

I established a Position in ADM and I hope to hold it for a long time as a dividend stock.

[@fepeerreview3150]

Whenever I see one of these "opportunities" I compare it to an S&P500 index fund for the past 1, 5, and 10 years, assuming dividends are reinvested. If it trails the index I ask myself why I should take the risk and volatility of a single stock rather than invest in the index. Has anything changed recently that would cause it to suddenly improve? New management, new acquisition, etc? If not, then I have no reason to expect its results to change either.

[@jayeshchhabra5329]

It's a cyclical stock. You buy when it's ugly and sell when it's pretty. Also keep in mind even when it's ugly like it is right now, you're buying in at an 11 p/e with a high dividend which is growing every quarter. Downside risk is limited on this as far as single stocks go since it's likely to return at least 10% over the long term, but it also has a lot of upside due to the fact that it goes through boom cycles as we saw a few years ago.

[@davidm1436]

The problem is that you want to do better than the index in the future, not in the past 😄

[@Steve-nb9kg]

For a company with little or no pricing power, raising the dividend so consistently over the years is pretty impressive. Payout ratio is still low at 37% making future raises likely.

[@Linette-g-y]

The last time I invested in a stock that did extremely well was during Covid, Moderna & zoom stock. I am sad that I missed out on Nvidia despite having over 300k ready to be reinvested. Any suggestions on new sectors that could outperform for the next five years?

[@cortez9978]

AMD is where the real money is now not NVDA, perhaps you should utilize a financial advisor to be on a safer side

[@M.Herlihy]

Agreed, investing with the aid of an advisor set me up for life. Retired with $1.6m in stock portfolio only. I max out my 401k and have few properties. I worked hard everyday as a teacher for 32 years, and my salary was over 100k annually, enough to get fully invested.

[@StephenTho42]

bravo! mind sharing details of your advisor please? my job doesn't permit me the time to analyze stocks myself. I am a Data Scientist at Deloitte and looking to build my stagnant 100k portfolio

[@M.Herlihy]

Katherine Nance Dietz is the licensed advisor I use. Just google the name and you’d find necessary details. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.

[@Ballesteros-d]

excellent share, curiously inputted Katherine Nance Dietz on the internet, spotted her consulting page ranked top and was able to schedule a call session. Ive seen commentaries about advisors but not one looks this phenomenal

[@pongop]

I've owned ADM a while and I like averaging down at $50-$55. Thank you Sven for pointing it out years ago!

[@Value-Investing]

Very welcome!

[@MarcosVelazquez-de6yh]

Hey, it's at $50 again. Can you make an updated video on possibly a different view now that they adjusted the year-end concensus. I bought back under 50 last time it dipped. Considering buying more.

[@Value-Investing]

the view remains the same!

[@dividendking3686]

Bought during the crash down to $50. Got a dividend yield of 4%, I sleep well at night and plan to hold until $100/share. If it dips to $50 or lower I'm buying more.

[@oldhickory4686]

Thanks Sven, I bought this months ago when you highlighted the dip. This is a solid stock to have in a portfolio, as far as I'm concerned.

[@Pizza-gb1ch]

@5:20 $40 would appear more in-line with your mark on the chart. $50 is merely the 52-wk low.

[@mrx2062]

Return on invested capital is wrong with this company. ROE over the last 10 years: about 10% I guess, ROIC: constantly clearly below 10%, that is less than the return of the S&P500. This company is structured for longtime underperformance. As Charly Munger said, over the long term you do not make much more return than the underlying company makes. That is a trading vehicle at best. nothing you can hold.

[@drzoidberg9589]

Exactly what I was thinking. Cheap for a reason.

[@VTh-f5x]

If you're retired and need low risk dividend stocks with low volatility. This is perfect.

[@drstedman]

I bought some at 51 during the great week of fear about ADM in January. I got lucky there and I plan to hold that 5% of my account forever, but I don't think I'll be adding at higher prices.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@Daan030]

Could you have a look at fertilizer stocks again? Mosaic Nutrien etc? Thank you Sven 🙏

[@Value-Investing]

I recently bought those, could make a vid.

[@johnmcquaid7524]

Really enjoyed this video. I made a few dollars based on some of your previous ADM videos. Thank-you for the update!

[@deadstone3991]

Thanks, very nice ! Will be great to see more similar options. 😊

[@peterholmes2089]

I recently bought 100 ADM shares and sold a 55 ITM Jan 2026 call option against it. The time premium was 5.04, and the expected divs will be 2.50 between now and expiration. This gives me 21% downside protection and a 15.1% gain if assigned (which I most likely will). If the stock is below 55 in 2026, I'll keep the stock at a cost basis of $47.46. Sure, I may not make as much if the stock skyrockets, but my strategy is to earn at least 10% annualized with a lower risk than owning the stock outright.

[@georgechang-q6h]

I have a lump sum in my possession, what about aggressive dividends etf to hold now

[@aytentuncyurek3722]

Hey buddy! Don't be seduced by large dividends. Concentrate on total return. There is no sense in collecting large dividends if your overall investment is going down however I’d say SPYI, JEPQ, QQI and IWMI. But do your research. Personally I put down 1.3m$ on few ETFs, still diversifying. It was this time last year I made a huge break through with 200k. Handed it to a firm here in Texas, I get weekly pay out which I put back on long term ETF's. IWM will probably crush it this quarter

[@georgechang-q6h]

I already added VOO and QQQM, can you share this firm with me

[@aytentuncyurek3722]

Yeah, Jennifer Kristie Taylor use her name to look her up

[@NeilConnor-g9x]

SPY, QQQ, IWM, and currently TLT. I only have 4. Jennifer’s firm grows a good portion of my diversification, I live in Connecticut.

[@davidm1436]

Hi Sven. Probably ADM will open at around 50$ after earnings. Maybe you’ll want to have a look. I’m definitely starting a position at this price. Thanks for the video!

[@Value-Investing]

soon!

[@cunestar]

Nice, waiting anxiously for update! 🎉 Started a 1/2 position already today.

[@thierrymarrec4041]

Net margin of ADM is typically between 3 and 4%, last quarter was worse (2.18%). Even if the business is strong and essential, I still feel insecure with such low margins.

[@mathewwilson9776]

Normal margin is more usually in the 2.5-3% range. The last couple of years have seen better results from high inflation: you can't expect them to sustain these levels. If revenue stabilizes around 80b and net margin tays around 2.7%, the current dividend represents a 45% payout, whih translates into a 4-5% yield when shares trade in the 40-50 range. Another 10% of profits deployed towards buybacks adds another 1% yield at these levels, for a 5-6% total. That leaves almost 50% of profits available for reinvestments, on which they get a 7% return on average. If you add 3% growth from inflation and another 3% from acquisitions, you get to a likely 10% over time, from a well managed business that will likely be here for the foreseeable future. The cheaper you can get such businesses, the better. But overall this is low risk, medium reward, with further upside potential if we get another inflationary wave.

[@SigFigNewton]

Looks to me like, of the four most recently reported quarters, two had profit margins matching the low margins of 2019, 2020, and two quarters had higher profit margins. If we assume that it wouldn’t be too weird for the company to revert back to every quarter having those lower pre-recent-inflation-era margins, there’s still downside risk of well over ten percent. Not as much downside risk as most tech companies.

[@SigFigNewton]

Interesting after-hours selloff from the upper 50s to mid 50s per share, but I like higher risk higher reward companies… to buy this one I’ll need to see it all the way down in the 40s, so that the merely-medium reward potential is balanced by a super low downside risk.

[@JacquesIlle-qr1hf]

Low margins and big debt pose a real danger. 2 harsh years and the company can go bankrupt

[@simpleyampper3544]

​@@mathewwilson9776 exactly

[@tsonez]

Thanks for the video! Good and predictable business, and conservative in terms of return on risk. I like it. Very nice!

[@tubeindahouse]

Thanks for the update with this stock. As you say, everything is related to the PRICE you pay. I feel value for this stock is closer to $40 USD.

[@cemen777]

Thank you, Sven. Do you have any thoughts about Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH)? It seems to be an interesting business. Today, it hit a 52-week low.

[@lyndonklymchuk7391]

I’ve been watching this stock! Looking forward to your update!

[@TheScaryGermanGuy]

An interesting strategy for dividend companies is to sell a long-term covered call on it. This way you get an extra premium that reduces risk/downside and you collect the dividend while not getting exercised on the option.

[@augustus331]

I’ve started a small position in ADM to track it, but I’m mostly invested in emerging markets with a focus on the Indo-Pacific region, targeting economic expansion and increased internet-penetration for industries like retail and tech. The Indo-Pacific region is poised to grow its economy significantly this century and that expansion is what appeals to me. However, something struck me with food companies: this logic doesn’t fully apply. Food demand is inelastic. People don’t eat twice as much just because their income doubles. This means that for food companies, economic expansion is less of a growth driver compared to other sectors. Instead, the weight and strength of the currency in the market they operate in becomes far more important for profitability, as higher currency values in developed markets allow for greater pricing power and stability. Since Western consumers pay higher prices for food, even though per-person demand is fairly constant worldwide, Western food markets offer the best exposure for investing in the food industry.

[@mikkelhansen3714]

How would you compare this with some of the other food stocks you have covered?

[@bn4live]

could you also cover humana stock its severely down, more than 50%

[@conlethkennedy2713]

Asked him via email, doesn't understand US health-care so it's a no from him

[@danielegianetti5599]

ADM - Rubis - Acomo - Ahold, the Sven Carlin's magic quadrant ☺️👍💪

[@OptionData-e6b]

These are the publicly discussed names, which means he likely doesn't own meaningful positions in either.

[@parthisubramanian]

@@OptionData-e6b why does it matter? .

[@dividendking3686]

Holding all and I'm holding for a long time 👌🏻

[@OptionData-e6b]

@@parthisubramanian Because it is his way of telling you that the expected return for these is lower than for his top picks, and/or the risk is higher.

[@Hyper1555]

I like them too! Some great stability for my other more growth/tech oriented stocks!

[@wvvpag]

its on 50...but accounting issues ?? :/

[@henriettahong]

What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.

[@CharlesT.Foster]

There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist

[@manueldrum]

I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders

[@Saviourtina-c4i]

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.

[@manueldrum]

My CFA Stacy Lynn Staples, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@JasonB.Chisolm]

Thanks for the recommendation. I'll email her and hope to get in touch soon.

[@fallskipe]

What about Bunge (stock BG) seems to be at lower valuation and is a very similar bussines model, I work as a truck tank driver in Europe and I have loaded for both of them. They also have multiple factories across Europe.

[@The_reasoning_dude]

Hey Sven, Adm is at approximately $50 now.

[@Value-Investing]

give me 5 hours

[@tobiasazarias4158]

Great content Sven , have you seen the health insurance stocks like Humana it has halved its market value. I believe it could be a value play, would you consider make a video? Thank you.🙏🏻

[@jonnes__4657]

🗽 Earnings in 2022 and 23 were exceptional for ADM.... expected earnings for next year are above the earnings of the year 2021.

[@alanwsh4138]

Thanks Sven, I like the PE 10 but I don’t like the 10B. Vtech (hk 0303) has PE 10 but no debt, 100% payout, so 10% div. Makes children’s toys, half my kid’s toys have vtech products in them, so feels like market power and inflation hedge too. Thoughts Sven?

[@wojaksformula9157]

Reminder!!! ADM is now bellow $50😲

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks!

[@herzerskerzer]

Hello Sven, ADM is under $50, what about a check?

[@Value-Investing]

I am constantly touching on it here or there.... kzbin.info/www/bejne/rXacmayqntiWi80

[@herzerskerzer]

@@Value-Investing thanks!

[@afonsodeportugal]

Thank you for this analysis!

[@beautyestetic8237]

Sven, as you asked, it’s 50€ now. Let’s re check it 😊

[@Value-Investing]

did it already kzbin.info/www/bejne/lWSThH96ht99Y6c

[@alberto_7683]

Great analysis! :)

[@baigani0]

i am heavily invested in ADM, more than 100k, for these years, i am totally -2% unreleased loss, the stock crashed 50% from its all time high, i was working there years ago

[@parthisubramanian]

Should be positive as they are paying dividend. This is my Fourth largest in my portfolio..but just started after the accounting issue.

[@brandonhooper7748]

Don’t sell. I held a good amount of baba for 2yrs and sold for a loss the day before this 25% rally happened. Don’t sell lol

[@PonderDuke]

@@brandonhooper7748 Good advice indeed, if the fundamentals are still good then do not sell, specially at a loss.

[@pantethine66]

@@brandonhooper7748 yikes

[@luigigetsu]

​@@brandonhooper7748are you joking or is it for real? How can one be so unlucky? 😢

[@doesntbalance]

Bought ADM right after the accounting scandal. I'm not really worried about the intersegment sales controversies as long as dividends and cash keeps flowing!

[@doesntbalance]

Also Sven, I bought HAL. It's an interesting play on the energy sector because they drill for most of the big oil and gas companies. Oil and gas companies are currently going through their reserve.. with many car manufacturers delaying their plans for going full EVs, drilling again is a matter of time IMHO.

[@Catumcai]

Thank you, Sven!

[@jazz19101]

Has Sven beaten the SPY in the last year, 2 years, 3 years...?

[@alexblomblom6381]

Weren't they involved in some kind of accounting fraud scandal earlier this year?

[@Value-Investing]

yes, but just part and in one acquisition

[@alexblomblom6381]

Seems as usual with this type of red flags, the hole deepens as more light is shed into the books. Hard to imagine for such a blue chip, but it is what it is... 😬

[@grzesiekszewczuk1741]

The question is why stock sank so bad ? I bought for 80 dollars per share and now it doesen t look to good

[@texaswoody1]

Howdy Sven from Texas! Ok, you asked for a notification when ADM fell to $50 or so, and it's there. Would you mind doing a refresher video on it, and where your analysis finds us today? I've been seriously considering a large position in ADM for some time thanks to you, and feel like we are approaching that sweet spot. If not already there. Thanks a million for all your help!

[@Value-Investing]

will do!

[@texaswoody1]

Thanks so much Sven for all your research, and time input! I don't think most people fully appreciate how much effort goes into analyzing stocks properly, and much less the work of producing a video and editing it based on said research. In any event, I offer you my thanks!

[@yusufozarslan1796]

Most importantly, it is an inflation hedge for portfolios.

[@Spura83]

Yes, everyone needs food, but in inflationary environment, who actually pockets the price increases for the end consumer? People making fertilizers and feeds? Farmers? Companies like ADM? Logistics, storage companies? Retailers like walmart? When consumers push back, due to inablity to pay the ever increasing prices, who gets the short end of the stick, whose margins it hits? ADM could very well be one of these companies and that means 0 or negative margins. I don't think the wider stock market buyers will buy this company, over something with double digit growth. Reminds me of Tyson foods, another 0 margin company.

[@HansFrantz69]

Nice!

[@bn4live]

i also see a minus 6 procent pre market for adm on the sunday.

[@danielegianetti5599]

Out of curiosity, how do you see these premarket values on a Sunday? I was in the understanding that premarket trading for US traded stocks typically only occurs on weekdays, specifically from 4:00 AM to 9:30 AM (Eastern Time)

[@bn4live]

@@danielegianetti5599 i see it now when i search on google, adm stock

[@SigFigNewton]

@@danielegianetti5599 In google finance, I can see it. Welll… not quite. What I see is the after-hours drop in share price occurring on Oct 4. I suppose I can’t claim that I’m looking at pre-open Monday when I’m actually looking at post-close Friday, but anyway it seems that fall occurred on Friday shortly after the market closed. Almost low enough to tempt me in, and I’m more of a tech investor

[@IPQ-sj2zs]

Wouldn't TSN be better? Same category but meat business

[@Barbara-h3c5n]

Watching the Market with detailed logical explanations from my coach has been an incredible experience. It's rare to find someone who explains their thought process while in the Market. Here, we have a true expert who thoroughly explains everything-from managing trades and identifying key confluences to understanding what to look for when in the Market. They also teach how to manage emotions during trading. It's truly remarkable to watch you along side during this times . Your efforts are outstanding, and I am now addicted to this channel's content. It's hard to find such high-quality lessons anywhere else. Thank you Sir, for your invaluable teachings. ... I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@Barbara-h3c5n]

Sandy Barclays program is widely available online..

[@baucha52]

The present market conditions could offer chances to enhance earnings quickly, yet to implement such a plan, expertise is essential.

[@xSMILEx24]

Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.

[@lwmustafa8173]

I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Sandy’s trade signal service.

[@MatheusBarbosa-zw4tw]

Sandy goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..

[@evni6208]

ADM is definitely a stock I would wish to own

[@siggiAg86]

Thanks!

[@justlikeasoldier]

I know dividend investing is most effective when approached with a long-term perspective. However, I'd appreciate valid tips on companies that can help boost performance on my $350K portfolio notwithstanding inflation, my goal is 20 - 40% year over year.

[@beautifulpeopleonearth]

prioritize patience. ideally, utilizing a FA can help with informed buying and selling decisions both for short and long-term gains

[@justamanwithbeliefs]

Right, I once downplayed the role a FA until after 40% portfolio loss amid covid-19 outbreak. At once, I consulted a license professional and my portfolio got revamped thankfully. As of today, I'm just about 10% shy of $1m after 100s of thousands invested.

[@everceen]

@@justamanwithbeliefs sounds good! how to put my money to work has been my daily thought, did my research and most suggestions pointed at the stock market, the thing is i'm an absolute noob at investing... mind if I look up your advisor please?

[@garrickphillips-x1z]

@@justamanwithbeliefs sounds good! how to put my money to work has been my daily thought, did my research and most suggestions pointed at the stock market, the thing is i'm an absolute noob at investing... mind if I look up your advisor please?

[@everceen]

sounds good! how to put my money to work has been my daily thought, did my research and most suggestions pointed at the stock market, the thing is i'm an absolute noob at investing... mind if I look up your advisor please?

[@jesusomarmontoyahernandez9201]

Comming back to this video while the stock price went down to 51 usd

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for refreshing!

[@kimvaneenoo5286]

ADM at 50 Sven😊

[@fabioguerra4291]

Ciao Sven adm sotto i 50$

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@fabioguerra4291]

Ciao Sven, ADM si sta avvicinando ai 50 dollari.

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@Sherif8928]

ADM at 50 , go ahead

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@deepsudeep]

Hey let me know too when it is 50 😅😂😇

[@SigFigNewton]

Fifty might be psychological support for it. -humans are silly, so the fundamentally-arbitrary price of 50 might still be a mentally-important cutoff -since some investors are aware that some investors like the idea of being able to grab shares of this in the forties, some will begin nibbling in the low fifties to avoid missing an opportunity to get in -so it wouldn’t be surprising if it doesn’t actually make it to the forties. I’m basically describing my plan. Nibbling if it gets under 52

[@SigFigNewton]

Happy to miss out if it doesn’t get that low. Always gotta be happy to miss out. Keeps me with most of my money in mutual funds and etfs rather than arrogantly thinking I can allocate well when downside risk is significant

[@carlosg617]

This or Pepsi?

[@JacquesIlle-qr1hf]

Big debt and slim margins=danger

[@shallow33]

It's worth mentioning that ADM has been a repeat offender when it comes to price fixing, corruption and accounting fraud, as recently as Jan 2024.

[@Value-Investing]

Yes, thanks for pointing out, but ADM is like all food companies, should we stop eating then? The real world we live in is much less nice than we would like to think about it :-(

[@prageethwarnak9688]

it is too hard bucket, not an obvious one.

[@-m7048]

They adjusted everything, Even their own mum……

[@thefrack8981]

Sub $50 now...

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@c2225]

Archer Mittal is better

[@whoiswho22]

please invest a better microphone, audio quality is ok but could be much better

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for suggesting. Spent a lot on a few mics but didn't manage to make them work properly :'-(

[@whoiswho22]

@@Value-Investing Never give up until succeeded 😁