NVIDIA DCF Valuation Model Built From Scratch | FREE EXCEL INCLUDED (2023)

⬇️ Download the NVIDIA DCF Excel for FREE ⬇️
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⏱Timestamps⏱
0:00 - Agenda
4:55 - Wall Street Prep
7:05 - Income Statement & Cash Flow Line Items
48:15 - Build DCF
1:31:30 - WACC
1:41:30 - Calculating Implied Share Price
2:03:15 - Price Discussion
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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#nvidia #nvda #stocks #dcf

[@rareliquid]

Latest NEW 2024 NVIDIA stream with updated figures - kzbin.infoYuBqd0v7EOw ⬇ Download the NVIDIA DCF Excel for FREE ⬇ ► www.wallstreetprep.com/lc-rl-nvidia-template/ ► Sign up to get emails notifications for my streams and when the excel models are available: forms.gle/jMUPmnSp5pvC9sQb6 🖥Wall Street Prep🖥 ► Use code RARELIQUID for 20% OFF on any course! ► www.wallstreetprep.com/self-study-programs/buy-side-financial-modeling/?wspoc=rliquid 🚀Sign up for my courses🚀 ► How to get into investment banking: forms.gle/wt4cZrezbxVgNzGUA ► How to get into MBA programs: forms.gle/9yEyycuP7NnQBjue8

[@ShawnFX]

Hi Ben, first of thank you for answering my question on stream about learning and memorizing the steps to financial models! You said it would be good to understand the concepts, do you think you could make a video on this when you have some free time in the near future if you haven't do so already? Thank you!

[@devangshetye9332]

Please sir

[@phphphph10]

Hi, we want it!!

[@anivnayar]

did he upload it yet?

[@atangbingana283]

so not available yet ?

[@yashchoudhary6470]

we need more of these streams ben! these are amazing great work buddy!!

[@darrelldas1962]

A video I was eagerly waiting for. Thank you so much for this video. I was making projections on nvidia. And you cleared it.♥️

[@jobinchavez8357]

Hey Ben, really amazing content - appreciate you putting these out for free, and they're incredibly helpful. Any chance you'd be willing to do a formatting / shortcuts video sometime when you get a chance, please? Trying to get better and faster at my DCFs and would love to get some more exposure to the quick keys & formatting tools you're using. Thanks!

[@palmetto.]

I haven’t done a DCF in like two years now lol, watching this is nostalgic and traumatizing all at once 💀

[@novemberchopin]

Keep these educational videos coming! Really appreciate the time you took.

[@xj7937]

thank you for these streams

[@robertthomassian9642]

Hi Ben. Congrats on graduating Wharton and good luck with your future ventures with Rare Liquid! I just used this to model to value my mom’s business so cheers🎉! 😘

[@ryanwesterfield6251]

Love these streams. Keep up the good work

[@bogaziciliceohaluk]

BRO YOU ARE WILD OMG

[@SpiffyGolfTV]

Wow good job for the DCF Valuation

[@sonerguney3225]

Teşekkürler. Güzel bir sunum

[@atangbingana283]

Ty my G keep cooking

[@maherhoussami38]

What service do you use to obtain the financials for any company like you did in the stream?

[@ivangostev1313]

Hi Ben, thanks so much for your amazing video! Have a couple of questions about estimations: 1. What's approach to use for estimates if there is no data on a company on Factset or no access to this platform? 2. Does DCF model fit for a new business unit of a company completely without historicals? What source for data to use in this case?

[@user-um7ij3rj5e]

Try to learn about monte carlo Simulation. It is used in forecasting in DCF model.

[@user-kc5op7lt2n]

when calculating WACC, what year should you get the debt and equity value to get the proportion? year 1 of forecasts? or last year of actual FS?

[@alessandrogiovati2096]

how do you justify the high rate of growth of revenues and ebit? thank you so much, very useful

[@juancassinerio1580]

Amazing video !!! Where did you get the Financial Stements Data From???

[@barryaherne215]

Like a slice of nostalgia from the olden days 😀

[@rareliquid]

haha yeah!

[@christianandreaprile8477]

Thank you

[@xunit94]

What keyboard shortcut are you using to reduce decimal places? I noticed you aren't using Alt H 9

[@tracywang1]

Thanks for sharing! Got a question here, in 1:54:09 if we were standing at Sep 2023, but you assumed the whole 2023 cash would come in in the coming 0.14 year? Shouldn't we just discount 2023Q4 cash? I think you have to do the yearfrac of revenue and then do the discount?

[@elazar997]

amazing

[@anho9878]

how can you make color for each number? do you have any general formatting

[@tonysu8286]

The calendar year of income statement screwed my mind lmao. Thanks for the video btw

[@switchup30]

thanks bro

[@rambouhh]

its crazy that its 9 months later and the annualized revenue for Q1 2024 is already 104 million. What this model had for 2028 revenue will likely be the revenue in 2024

[@daviddirethucus3197]

Hi, in the 00:40:45 when you said converting "Change in NWC" be positive, why should we do this step? and why we only give the minus sign to the first part of the equation: '=-(11/12)*CFS!C32+(1/12)*CFS!D32' ? Thanks.

[@shauntan8760]

I believe its a mistake, I too was confused when he did that. I believe you should parenthesize the whole equation and not just the first part.

[@MrOmertemiz]

First of all, thank you for the video, It is amazing. For the revenue 2014, 11/12 of the revenue should come from the amount as of 25-Jan-15 and 1/12 should come from the figre as of 26-Jan-14. Formula is =(11/12)*IS!C9+(1/12)*IS!B9. There is nothing belongs to 2014 in the report as of 31-Jan-16. Same for the EBIT. Am I right?

[@junshen2942]

yea i think thats right, i got confused as well when he did 1/12 of 2016

[@talweiss4973]

Thank you very much for the video. Do you know if as an individual retail investor can I get access to Factset?

[@MaximMeshkvichev]

FactSet do not currently license for retail investors, unfortunately.

[@jakefrep]

I think you calendarized in the wrong direction. Should have been 1/12 of the 1/31/14 column plus 11/12 of the 1/31/15 column.

[@lucashuijts6482]

Why? Its taking 11 months from year 1 and 1 month from year 2? Since the financial year is from 1/2/14 - 1/1/15? So; 11/12 year 1 (2014) 1/12 year 2 (2105) Or am i missing something?

[@finnbrown7924]

​@@lucashuijts6482 The period you are referring to would be from 1/1/14 to 12/31/2014 - so CY2014. The first part of this CY2014 calculation, where he took 11/12 of FY2015, is correct. However, to this he added 1/12 of FY2016, when he should have added 1/12 of FY2014.

[@parkuuu]

@@lucashuijts6482 Yep it is incorrect. He is getting the pro-rata value corresponding to January 2016. He should have used the 2014 one instead

[@bhavyakaushik4449]

Hey I am unable to download the template from link mentioned in the video description. Page not found is the error I get when I access the link. I request you to please look into the issue and resolve it if possible so that I can access the template and practice it.

[@CaptainUnitas]

Hi Ben, What do you suggest if you don't have access to factset for historical financial data? Are there alternatives that work (cost wise) for individual investors just looking to model companies for personal investing?

[@steffenvergeylen1097]

You can always visit the annual reports on their websites

[@s.m.hassan3887]

can u include an excel template (same like you started in the video) so we can also practice alongside you ?

[@birjushah8181]

Thanks - really good vide but it literally went up over 100 percent

[@romuloaranguibel5826]

where do you find all the data to calculate the DCF? im new sorry

[@brittanyperkins9078]

Is the Excel template still available?

[@tiagofreitas7659]

In calculating the WACC, why did you use the Short-Term Debt. Shouldnt it only be long term as short term debt can be used to make the PV of future CFs as ti wont exist anymore ?

[@DeepVoiceSatish]

Can you make some videos on excel please

[@alecperrone2183]

Draft Kings dcf tomorrow?

[@Foldengold]

is there any update on when the DCF model download is ready? Cheers from denmark

[@rareliquid]

ready now!

[@Foldengold]

@@rareliquid thank you so much!🙌🏼

[@derek96913]

Hi do you use levered or unlevered beta for cost of equity calculation?

[@robinwahlgren5809]

You mainly use the levered beta. However, if you want to calculate an industry beta, you need to first unlever the beta and then relever it for the firm in interest.

[@traderdox]

Hi. I’m a physician and I’m very much interested in finance. I was initially thinking of joining an MBA to understand finance but I just wanted to know the basics. Do you know any place where I can learn the basics of finance so that I can understand your video better?

[@riccardopossenti5099]

If you want to fully understand the video you need to study the entire balance sheet, how to analyze it, corporate finance to understand what's the Wacc, the DCF (the model of the video) and other models, some financial mathematics

[@traderdox]

@@riccardopossenti5099 is there a textbook where I can learn the basics for this

[@apexmemator7239]

Hello! Being a med student, I was in the same place as you some time back but I have learned quite a bit of financial modelling and related concepts of valuation. If you want I can teach you the basics of reading financial statements and modelling for some fees💸💸

[@darren30curry34]

Seems like the DCF model is being taken off from the website. Am wondering if anyone have the access to it. Thanks

[@owenjohnson8386]

when will the excel sheet be ready to download?

[@rareliquid]

ready now!

[@shishkilover]

I think the issue with this is your predictions for the future. You need more information to make a proper prediction for the future for that to be calculated in the DCF

[@adi_LDN]

LMAO loved the confusion about NVIDIA's growth projections. It comes from their datacenters business which all the AI companies are gonna need to build their complex models. If you check the breakdown of their revenue and see where they get their growth from, i suspect data centers will have the most growth. Thanks though this was really helpful

[@culifabrizio1479]

U know thats not true

[@matthewhesham8221]

Wondering what you feel about NVDA now after hitting $1200 yesterday :) !!!

[@dlc180]

where do you download the data ? I have to do a project for my university and I need the balance sheet the income statement the cash flows and calculate the ratios could anyone help me plese ?

[@juancassinerio1580]

from macrotrends you can get 14 years of financial data

[@ashutoshverma8799]

@13:00 Shouldnt It be 11/12 of 2014 cause we are calculating for 2014?

[@snoopybrown1899]

have the same question here

[@Julian-bi6ld]

This is the prof that a DCF or mathematics are not enough to predict a stock price. Currently trading at 877$

[@abdulkadirt7242]

if we have purchase Nvidia share at the time of these video then we would have made lot of money

[@MB-cj8cu]

Change in NWC was calculated incorrectly I think...

[@ryanwesterfield6251]

My professors try to tell me that the terminal growth rate should be 80-85% of the WACC. I tell them no way. Do you agree? I always used 2-3% for TGR

[@lilkidethan]

NOBODY agrees with your professors

[@anubhavonyt]

There is no connection between WACC and TGR. Nobody will agree with that your professors say. I wonder where he got this concept.

[@sumanthasaha61]

I always take the risk free rate as the TGR.

[@anubhavonyt]

@@sumanthasaha61 That is also not correct. In India, risk free rate is higher than that of US. It is around 7%. You cannot take a TGR of 7% even for India which is a developing market.

[@grievousrationality4664]

@@anubhavonytIndia doesn’t have a risk free rate… government bond doesn’t equal risk free rate, the global standard is to use the us 10y bond. So your point isn’t quite relevant, hope that clears it

[@options9969]

한국 사람이신가요?? 이민을 가신거예요?

[@ilyosjonolimjonov]

currently watching this Before market open price of $NVDA is 953.86, up 231% hahah

[@julius5256]

Isn’t all of this basically astrology of the financial markets?

[@sohail.melwani]

Brother, can u help me - I'm using your DCF template for an interview assignment I need to submit tomorrow. I need to make a DCF for Ramco Systems (Indian listed) and I'm stuck on Taxes. The company is negative earning and it's hard to determine the tax rate, could u guide me what to do here? I'm building from 2018 till 2028E

[@sohail.melwani]

To this - Can i pay you $10 to check my model lol - I just need some fixes on the Tax bit more than anything

[@khoidoan04]

you use the NOLs carryfoward, use the operating loss as a deductions for future taxable income

[@king3650]

Back at a point where $NVDA is $925 per share haha

[@frsr416]

crazy he was way of

[@somalianofdd286]

nvidia is not the most cheap maker, it is TSMC

[@paulbulliard6519]

The tax rate is so low it's crazy

[@KK-qc2qs]

just 1-2 bad quarters and it will bite dust

[@natjimoEU]

I think Nvidia is actually going to experience negative revenue growth in 2024.

[@rareliquid]

hmm i wouldn't bet on that for 2024. maybe in future years it's possible if there's a dip in activity though or supply chain isues

[@natjimoEU]

@@rareliquid That's a bet. I'm coming back this comment next year. You owe me a beer if I'm right.

[@justinsimon154]

Welp this was a bad take in hindsight

[@lukacvetkovicc]

This didn't age well haha

[@bingsu1637]

what do you mean

[@lugia8888]

@@bingsu1637 the implied share prices were huge underestimates. Thats why I dont like following these models - models are only good for modeling, not necessarily forecasting (yet hedge funds still do this and lose money too).

[@The_Duude99]

​@@bingsu1637well, he called it overpriced and the share price since then has almost doubled...

[@hansa9159]

?

[@lugia8888]

@@hansa9159 the stock is way higher. DCF is not usually a good model to follow

[@jzhng250]

Fundamental analysis on growth stocks… face palm. You can’t factor in momentum bro.

[@mikes3637]

these are too basic bro! not even a 3 statement model

[@winnershandbook1069]

DCF is nonsense. it's impossible to predict the fair value. all you can do is relative analysis + intuition

[@nivkavaler4127]

you were wrong

[@underratedblastoise3908]

no he wasn't

[@nivkavaler4127]

he literally was@@underratedblastoise3908

[@learn.profit]

Hi Ben! Love your work, I can't download the DCF Excel... It is still available? I would love to see!! Greetings from Portugal :)

[@TryAthletic]

Great video! at the start As the FY of nvidia is delayed by 1 month to apportion to the calendar i tI think you should do 11*12 Nvidia CY + 1/12 Nvidia PY. Thats why your numbers were off quite far from key items table. you took most of the next financial year data. Revenue example 2014 4633.666667 2015:4982.666667 2016:6751.666667 2017:9480.333333

[@stupidchannel1000]

5 months later..... this video aged like milk left in the blistering sun. Good example of how no one truly knows what a stock or the market will do next, and neither technical analysis nor fundamental analysis works all the time. The best thing to do is combine the two and stay within your circle of competence only investing in companies or businesses you truly understand. Or you can index and add on dips until you die. A DCF model isn't the end all be all to financial analysis and your decisions should NEVER be made solely upon it. It's a tool, made to be used in combination with other analysis metrics and tools as well as your gut feel and basic intellectual understanding of the environment and the business in question.

[@rareliquid]

i literally say what you said in the beginning of the video lol. never use this as your only decision making tool but better for some to use a dcf than nothing at all because it provides you a range of what you need to believe to justify certain stock prices