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澳洲统计局数据显示单单2023年,澳洲新增人口66万,其中海外净移民55万,而同期民宅建筑开工量只有102,200套,仅仅是新房实际需求量的40%,同时开工数量呈现连年下降的趋势,就没停下来过。疫情以来移民涌入澳洲,造成房价和房租全都暴涨30%-55%,让无数的澳洲中低收入人群,租不起房买不起房,甚至房产行业从业者都要搬到城市周边居住。用‘住房危机’这个词来形容,再贴切不过了。这不但代表了澳洲,也包括美国,加拿大,欧洲几乎所有国际性大都市的现状。无论是买房还是租房都变得越来越难以承受,好像无法改变。
然而,在全球最大的城市群东京,情况却完全不同。东京圈居住了将近4000万人口。都会23区这么小的面积就住了930万人。尽管东京的面积超过了纽约,人口增长却同样迅速。不同的是,东京却成功避免了严重的住房危机。与悉尼,伦敦,新加坡乃至上海这样的城市相比,东京的房租和房价都惊人地亲民,以至于有人说东京是世界上最后一个住宅可以负担的大城市。
为什么东京房价房租这么稳定呢?如果你对日本不了解,可能会把原因归结为人口老龄化和人口下降。毕竟人口减少就等于住房需求减少么。但现实情况完全不是这样。过去15年间,东京圈人口增长了大约100万,而租金仅上涨了20%。
东京到底如何应对超高密度和飞涨的人口呢?房价和房租为什么能控制到,让更多普通人都能够负担得起?有哪些因素是包括澳洲在内的西方国家可以借鉴,哪些又是想学也学不来的?最关键的问题是如果澳洲采纳东京模式,究竟对20年后的普通居民和房产投资者意味着什么?
00:00 澳洲住房危机爆开! 普通人租房买房没希望!
03:38 二战后的东京
06:02 1968年新城市规划法
07:37 1980年代经济泡沫时期
10:53 规划与条文
12:21 邻避现象(NIMBY)
13:26 遗产税
13:51 消费品属性
14:49 投资者怎么办
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