Outcome Bias (Success = Effort + Environment + Luck)

We all like to be successful in our career. That is why the biography of those people who did achieve success can always get more attention than others. However, when the celebrity is telling the public all the stories to achieve the success, did you ever think about a question: If I follow the same story from today, can I get the same success in the future?
Obviously that won't happen. But why do many people still like to hear others' stories of success and hope they can get the same one day? The truth is, for a person having success, it is easy for us to consider that everything he did is correct. On the contrary, if a person didn't achieve success, we may think all he did is wrong. Of course, the person who did write the stories didn't lie to us. He did tell us all his experience to get the success. However, the final success is a result from a variety of conditions and under a certain type of environment. It may also need a bit of luck to be successful. If somebody else or even the person himself follows the same route today, since those external conditions and environments are not available, it is impossible to get the same success. Nothing in this world can be perfectly copied, including the successful stories.
So, every success is the result from a combination of a variety of conditions, resources and sort of luck. Focusing on the end result only but Ignoring those conditions is called outcome bias. Most of us will think all our actions are rational and we can always make the best decision in the current environment. However, this is not true. Sometimes, the reason which we considered as the cause is not the real cause for a result.
For example, a rooster will crow in the morning and then the sun rises. But a rooster's crowing is not the reason that the sun will rise, although it happens every day. A lottery winner may tell the public what kind of methods he did use to win the jackpot. Different winners may have different stories. Some will keep buying the same group of numbers for a few years and finally get the result. Others may use some special statistical methods to get the winning numbers. However, if you follow the same methods, you will find that neither one will work on you. If you toss a coin 10 times and all results are heads, you still have a 50% chance to get a tail on the next toss. You may think Google's success is due to lots of talented staff. However, how many talented people will be in favor of it when Google is still a start-up company?
Let's consider another example which may happen in our workplace. If you are an investment manager. There are two investment strategies available for your career. The first one is highly risky but it may have a better performance than the other low-risky one. Of course most of us will choose the second one. However, somebody may use the first strategy to achieve some short term success in their career. If you consider it as a success and follow the same route, you will definitely fall into the trap of the outcome bias.
Attribution:
Image from Pixabay: pixabay.com/photos/people-han...