Simon Hunt: Will the Dollar or Bond Market Be Sacrificed First in the Next Crisis?

Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. They discuss various economic and geopolitical issues shaping the global landscape. Topics range from potential conflicts and their impact on markets to the shift towards physical assets and a gold-backed monetary system. Simon touches upon underreported inflation, economic instability in America, China's role in reshaping the global economy, potential crisis scenarios, and the importance of diplomacy versus war.
Palisade Radio Links:
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Simon is concerned about the risk of conflicts escalating, with Russia as a key player, and the emergence of gold-backed currencies to counteract perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies. Additionally, they discuss the significance of rising interest rates, potential crises, and implications for U.S. elections and global geopolitical outcomes. Throughout, Simon encourages caution and emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic trends and geopolitical dynamics.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:46 - The World & War
5:38 - Equity Complacency
7:02 - Russia & Syria
9:17 - Economic Catalysts
14:32 - Serious Correction
18:18 - Leveraged Bank System
19:24 - Capital Shifts & China
22:57 - Gold Backed Currency
29:26 - Dollar & Rates
30:53 - Chinese Demographics
33:50 - China's Manufacturing
37:40 - Nuclear Energy
39:31 - China Debt
42:32 - Chasing Rainbows
44:30 - Europe In Recession
48:15 - Inflation Issues
52:25 - Expect More Unknowns
53:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Geopolitical tensions could lead to significant market shocks in equity and base metal markets before mid-year due to underreported inflation and weak economic activity.
- Shift towards gold-backed currencies is inevitable as countries seek alternatives to perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies, with China and Russia likely taking a leading role.
- Diplomacy could prevent war, but tensions between the US and countries like Russia suggest that war may be an outcome if Washington continues to support the dollar at the expense of its treasury market.
Guest Links:
Email: [e-mail]
Website: simon-hunt.com/
Report: www.theinstitutionalstrategis...
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.
Simon is the author of the "Frontline China Report Service," which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China's economy, politics, and financial outlook.
Simon established this company in January 1996.

[@swanee9414]

Simon is on my very.short list of most knowledgeable people on finance, economics, commodities, and the world overall.

[@neilweston7605]

well hewas wrong on oil befores,./

[@goldenwarrior6996]

Excellent Program !!!!! Thanks Simon and Tom

[@radiomanze1296]

I'd say both the dollar and the bond market. Remember Barry Soetoro said years ago, "The national debt doesn't matter"

[@marcbriggs4449]

Simon Hunt is *always* a must-listen! Although I must say I do it on increased playback speed given his deliberate way of speaking.

[@FreeSpeech4All]

Even at 1.5x, it still sounds pretty slow. 😂

[@stuartmarkrigby]

Simons cadence of speech/wisdom is what makes you listen like a magnet to it's attractor.

[@Jack-wk7yi]

Great to see Simon.

[@1SmallDaddy]

Probably the most knowable guest you can have. This is a man to listen to.

[@Josephbasta827]

I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Kathleen Chandler.

[@Charlottehornets4]

You trade with Kathleen Chandler too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@erikyanez5371]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@Josephbasta827]

she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name

[@Josephbasta827]

fxannchandler 💯 ..that's it

[@josephessa9627]

WTF why are you talking about this here? o_o

[@Infodawg2012]

Simon is a wise man who knows and speaks the truth.

[@jennyadams108]

A brilliant guest! Thank you.

[@marsbetelgeuse7599]

Great analysis

[@Carlos-im3hn]

excellent interview. we are now stuck in this epoc of fiat finance since starting 2024, now we are into inflation and hyperinflation going forward. real inflation 10%+ and increasing. Exter's pyramid is in effect...so good money crowds out bad money. We are now looking at the Austrian crack-up boom or meltup. India is importing and buying 5x more silver in 2024 vs. 2023. This is it.

[@FreeSpeech4All]

This is totally worth watching... at 1.5x speed... because then it sounds like normal speed. 😄

[@azrielsmith3167]

Literally...I put it to 1.5x and it sounds like normal cadence lol

[@thehungergames8918]

Simon is a legend 😃✊

[@darrellcross4538]

Greetings from Australia 🇦🇺, this is the first time I’ve listened to Mr Hunt and I found his insight to be very thoughtful and informative, was very well worth listening to.

[@pjbburk.4208]

Simon Hunt is so spot on! Always love hearing what he has to say!!!

[@ddprepper5227]

Excellent report 💯

[@lynnybee888]

Thank you! Simon Hunt is always the best interview ever!

[@JM-gu3tx]

Very nice standard received pronunciation speaking style--pure erudition and class.

[@heldenby]

Great interview. Pro Tip: If you playback at 1.5x he sounds normal.

[@garryw-vc6qm]

If you playback at 1.5 it’s good.

[@alisra007]

👍 ขอบคุณมาก😊

[@kickass9175]

Great listening Thanks Tom

[@burto77]

The best content on KZbin!

[@ivanmejia6843]

Love Simon, but I always have to speed up playback to at least 1.5.

[@goldenwarrior6996]

Excellent Program Thanks !!!! Simon stated in a interview back in the last of 2023 that we would have a Stock Market Correction by somewhere around 30% give or take that would take place in APRIL . Well As of the Week APRIL 8 though the 12th the STOCK MARKET is FALLING and will continue to. Simon has been very Correct with the Market and the timing . Thanks

[@tennesseeprepper5102]

Thank you Simon and Tom

[@dalmatocroate5618]

The most complete overview I ve heard so far , thank you gentlemen for your interview

[@davidotness6199]

Nice surprise. Simon is my #1 go-to for international perspective in finance-economics.

[@Howardjensen1]

BTC can disregard techincals when in a bull, did that in 2020 when it crossed previous ATH... stayed there a few weeks and continued pumping like crazy to 60k. Also, there is one constant... when around 90 on monthly RSI, the end is near. And don't expect crazy price targets of 500k... expect around 100k at most and be happy if there's more after that. If you believe big boys and CEO's of big invesment firms saying targets like 1M this cycle.. you deserve to be their exit liquidity..It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3B'tc to a decent 21B'tc in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@Howardjensen1]

She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.

[@Howardjensen1]

@Lindawilburn

[@22Mandy]

I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Linda’s trade signal service.

[@krytenss]

Trading with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investor s who have little or no time to monitor their trades.

[@gabhrielixx]

The key to financial stability is having the right investment suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.

[@gustav8310]

Great show.👏🏻

[@alexconnors1027]

Everything we see and hear in all by design..

[@goldentiger1841]

Awesome interview !

[@Ozee316]

It is basically a competition between lenders and borrowers. If the currency is devalued borrowers win. If not, then lenders will be forced to repossess assets they lent against. These forces are opposing. Currently the lenders are keeping the value of the dollar high to preserve the value of the loans they hold. Banks and financial asset holders will resist currency devaluation because it reduce the debt burden for borrowers as long as inflation is broad based. This is a delicate balance. If inflation is kept mostly to asset prices (as it has been yhus far) then lenders and financial asset holders will continue to benefit.

[@lorenmerluzzo]

Excellent

[@thane816]

nobody's talking about coal!

[@cruisy3885]

On point as usual !! Great insights.

[@fangzhou3235]

in China, not 1oz nuggets, it is 1 gram nuggets

[@gerardnorris6146]

Simon is by far the best, My Head&Heart tells me he knows more than he tells us,plus he's telling us they might be no election in Nov.

[@garryw-vc6qm]

Cancelling Nov elections will be a disaster for not only the DNC but will likely cause civil disturbance.

[@peterdaly9283]

Kinda scary when you say cookie cutter for nuclear plants in China. Hope they are built better than their city building structures.

[@oliver882k]

@0:30 😂

[@KK-ex3ej]

Here looking for Simon's take on things

[@issenvan1050]

How can copper go up during an upcoming recession in US & a current one in China probably?

[@neilweston7605]

i think most have got oil wrong, because of similar reasons,./

[@chrissalley9468]

We are way closer to the cliff than most believe. I dont think we have years. More like weeks or months

[@josephessa9627]

Give me even one example in the history when there was a 40% drop in the market because of war

[@OldTraffordNorway]

When on Rumble?

[@issenvan1050]

Aren’t wars historically good for the markets?

[@klausburmester1018]

As of Simon we should have been in the first crash correction since months already

[@goldenwarrior6996]

Simon stated back at the end of 2023 the Stock Market would fall or Crash as Simon stated but this one is a BIG Correction really the same thing by at least somewhere around 30% April 2024. That is now is happening as of the week of April 8 though the 12th and will continue. The stock market is breaking down fast as it is falling though all the trind lines on the dow, nasdaq, s&p. Thanks

[@sylviagatterburg5318]

Who can wish this wars upon us all?! perhaps the devil

[@issenvan1050]

Why do gold & DXY go up together?

[@randallolgers8314]

I can only listen to Simon on 1.25 speed.

[@paranoidandroid9825]

Was Simon one of the Hunt brothers who cornered the SILVER market years ago.

[@garryw-vc6qm]

Ha no! Those were the American Hunt brothers. Think they are dead now.

[@garryw-vc6qm]

You should google that market play. I was always surprised the Hunt brothers didn’t see the onerous government ( via the “ independent “ market authorities) trading futures cost escalation that tipped the short squeeze into a rout.

[@josephessa9627]

33:34 Then why there are massive capital outflows from China?

[@stephengoodwin6403]

I see a legacy of GHW Shrub in this

[@FreakinFreedom]

Shadow stats itself is underreporting... Cars, housing, food 100%+ increase

[@MichaelSkelton]

25:40 - "We're not prepared to sell our product for USD" Which then triggers immediate, though necessarily long-running and laborious, process to return ALL manufacturing industries, from plastic baubles and trinkets to pre-assembled furniture to auto-parts and high-end technical gear (chips, main boards), back to continental United States. Is this not a win-win? BRICS is free from the constraints of USD global reserve currency and the attendant baggage. United States gets the industry jobs back that were poached and exported to China, and our military stops becoming the global fiat money police force, which nobody wants (Americans DON'T WANT our soldiers shipped all over to fight wars over oil/nat gas we have under our feet here). Now Mr. Hunt, let us follow the logical deductive process to derive CUI *NON* BONO of the de-dolarization process you describe (HINT: the people most opposed to de-dolarization likely benefit heavily from the "Euro-dollar" system and reside rather close in proximity to your home country, sir). For my part, I welcome de-dolarization as a means of bringing distributed prosperity to each individual region of the globe, and to terminate U.S. military used as a global debt enforcement agency.

[@RuralmoneyOfficial]

Simon wears a copper bracelet. 😊

[@haikuartist4066]

God is in control.

[@ronfesta771]

Me thinketh even at., double the speed both these men speak in a.......very measured manner!@!?😝

[@josephessa9627]

14:33 A correction would lead to monetary easing that would cause 15% inflation. Can you explain me where the inflation comes from if there is a correction ? Monetary easing don't cause inflation. High asset and commodities prices cause inflation. This really looks like a flawed reasoning.

[@camille7493]

EVs are history

[@issenvan1050]

Oct. 7 was Putin’s birthday!

[@RuralmoneyOfficial]

Countries will go to war for gold. 😮

[@tacitus7]

41:00 and following. Not only did Xi divert investment from real estate into manufacturing but also into gold… I think I’m right on that.

[@jasonaris5316]

The western political classes have forgotten that we live in democracies and they work for the people not for a narrow minded tiny elite

[@paranoidandroid9825]

Democracy involves Government don’t confuse it with freedom.

[@dwaynecarroll7985]

dollars are extremely valuable he is wrong Gammon proved in Argentina that you could not find anyone willing to exchange gold silver or bitcoin for pesos. Silver was the best. Gold you would take a 50% haircut to the spot price. The issue is liquidity. Argentina is limited to basically $40 dollars a day abot 40,000 pesos. If you cut of liquidity then the local currency becomes incredibly valuable to the person. They have created one heck of a closed loop system. It wont matter how much gold Simon has. He will never find anyone to exchange with. None of us will. This was eye opening. We are awash in counterparty risk down to peer to peer Simon is losing his shirt on his china bet

[@hb490]

Will humanity survive the next crisis?

[@paranoidandroid9825]

A HU- MAN is a simulacrum of man it is but a MONSTER.

[@mattatuckmanful]

Most of the recent employment in US is from non-native born “newcomers” 🙄

[@issenvan1050]

Inflation is dead. This man does not know what inflation is. He is putting the cart before the horse. & Ep$tein’s friend Larry Summers believes in the Phillips Curve! Enuff said!

[@richgarbacik7182]

1 question not asked was does he think the US has its gold?

[@goldenwarrior6996]

Simon does not say anything about the PM's for one reason. Simon stated he quit because some was trading the markets with what he stated so he does not do that anymore.

[@theresaqueenan105]

Porn Fear!

[@bro.radcliffe9453]

RFK Jr

[@randolphr5074]

He’s been very wrong so far he forecast a crash Last October 😊

[@goldenwarrior6996]

We are in the Stock Market CRASH as of APRIL 8 though the 12th and will continue. Some call it a Crash but this one is a Correction as Simion stated back then of around 30% give or take. Simon Stated and said it would start in APRIL . Well he is CORRECT. Thanks

[@1984gill]

It’s already crash look around .Don’t go on numbers ,they are manipulated.