POE How Orbs Of Conflict Work & How Rigged They Are - Path of Exile - Discovered 3.21, Current 3.22

[@voodoo1069]

Feels about right from my experience and how I've always explained it.

[@sirgog]

It's just been so hard to get bulk Conflicts to test it - I tried to get enough in 3.17 to test it and couldn't buy enough.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Markov Chain calculations. I see PoE is fast approaching Eve Online levels of mathematical nerdyness....😶😶‍🌫

[@sirgog]

i miss when eve online was good :(

[@ForbiddenExile]

I love that your poster matches your shirt 🤘🏻

[@uy9572]

I was insanely lucky when these first came out and I thought the way it worked was it always had a high chance of upgrading the higher tier mod, so the way I would use them is after elevating the desired mod I would use a lesser for the non desired mod to keep it as low as possible, and doing this I actually managed to get multiple items to perfect within 3 tries with no fail, of course my fools luck ran out eventually and I ended up spending like 90 exalts trying to get a mod to perfect using this wrong method on an item which led me to investigate how they actually work and made me realize how lucky I actually was before this lol.

[@HaPKoMaTo3]

Oh, Markov chain. I know this thing. I've used it to calculate my chances of enhancing accessories in BDO with crons. Btw i always upgrade by smashing with T4 mods(or higher if it upgrades the wrong one for some reason). For example i buy a few T4 exarchs. Roll the T2 eater, then smash it T4/T2, then T4/T3, then T4/T4, then T4/T5 and finally T4/T6. I think it gives me the best chances to promote the mod i need (eater in this exmaple)

[@sirgog]

Yeah I'd spam Greater or Grand tier to get the mod I want to get right, and Exceptional of the opposite tier.

[@MathieuPilot]

Thanks for rhe info. Never tried it and was wondering whats the best way to reach T5/T4 state.

[@sirgog]

Without running the numbers I think it's spamming Grand in the present league economy, Greater in a fresh economy. If you want to run the numbers properly, the Markov Chain and a small amount of geometric series calculations will give you an exact answer.

[@wtfwasthat16]

Cron slams.... nightmares

[@HaPKoMaTo3]

@@wtfwasthat16 yeah, got myself pen debo neck tho. =) took 10 taps.

[@TheHeroYouDeserve]

I always suspected this, thanks for confirming.

[@peterheath7960]

Wow, Markov Chains in a PoE vid. I'm seriously impressed!!!

[@franciscomellocastro654]

Didn't expect anything less. Poe is for hardcore stats nerds 😂

[@OtterSeaborne8901]

Considering the Markov Chain Patch Notes are more or less a tradition at this point, it's not that surprising.

[@synaruscz5352]

So when I want 1 perfect mode on eater of worlds, i spam grand eldrich ichors until i hit the mode i want and then i slam 1 exceptional eldrich ember and then i orb of conflict it yeah? => Am missing info of with what exarch i should start with if i wanna elevate eater in the mark chains.

[@Mikketamakulo]

this mechanic seriously want me to bash me own head. probability aside I have had a mod go all the way to removed while the other mod stays perfect, Twice in a row now???

[@MaldingSjomp]

I came here because I wanted to see what the chances where off me not reaching exquisite-greater in 32 attempts. Seems like it is pretty low indeed.

[@Viltho]

Thank you so much sirgog for sharing this

[@sirgog]

thanks mate! Not my findings (other than the Markov part) but with people avoiding Reddit at the moment I thought it would be of interest

[@diegoperez4224]

How do you get the markov calculator into dark mode? i cant find the option.

[@sirgog]

I used the Chrome flag to force dark mode on all sites (you'll see that krangled the art on the Orb of Conflict)

[@diegoperez4224]

@@sirgog Thanks

[@sirgog]

It's funny - I slightly prefer the beta dark mode, but it breaks a few things (worst of all, radio buttons in KZbin Studio, the interface for uploading vids) so I can't use it full time, and I usually turn it off after recording a vid with it

[@Xomage999]

Interesting. So these can help calculate things that aren't patch notes...

[@G33KST4R]

Orb of Conflicts are about to shoot through the roof. Wish I could buy some now 😂

[@m.h.4907]

Common. These stupid orbs never work on my Eater mods, it is always the Exarch. They are rigged

[@catmasterOP]

🍻

[@kamilmcki8631]

Ye thats why i was wondering why the fuck i cant elevate from grand to exceptional with literall 30 orbs lol

[@sirgog]

You should get it inside 30 - WAY inside 30. Extreme bad luck not to.

[@heqitao]

tyvm.

[@SIowpoke]

This is just sad.

[@WOMFT]

Wasnt it alrdy found out on release that upgrading a lower compared to higher is always btr, doh tbh this shiet is cursed i once managed to downgrade exquisite to 0 and also thx ggg sometimes exquisite is enough...

[@sirgog]

It's always been known that there's a bias, it's the magnitude of the bias that's the new info. Downgrading Exquisite to 0 is pain. Rare outcome, but it can happen