Raise Cash

The markets will fluctuate said J.P. Morgan. We will add they can fluctuate dramatically and quickly. We are now living that reality daily.
The longest bull market in U.S. history, which began in March of 2009 saw stocks reach new highs in February only to plummet this month at historic speeds and magnitudes. The bull market officially ended on March 11th and the bear market began with a 20% plus decline in major markets from their previous highs. Since then the bear market has been deepening.
The longest economic recovery in U.S. history is also at risk. What seemed highly unlikely to most economists just a few weeks ago, namely a U.S. recession is now becoming a consensus view. All it would take is two consecutive quarters of contracting growth and it looks like the second and third quarters of 2020 will qualify.
Wall Street’s number one economist and WEALTHTRACK guest Ed Hyman issued his U.S. recession forecast on March 7th citing the triple whammies of oil price collapse, coronavirus economic impacts, and China-related supply chain disruptions.
Meanwhile, the bond markets are setting their own records. Yields on U.S. Treasury securities the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond have both been reaching historic lows. When bond prices rise yields fall so Treasuries have once again proven to be safe havens as well as excellent investments in the face of stock market declines.
None of this is a surprise to this week’s guest who has been warning of economic and stock market risks for years on WEALTHTRACK and the value of owning U.S. Treasury securities and cash.
He is Robert Kessler, founder, and CEO of Kessler Investment Advisors, a manager of fixed-income portfolios with a specialty in U.S. Treasuries for institutions and high net worth individuals around the globe.
When Kessler was on WEALTHTRACK a year ago he warned there was a recession dead ahead. He said it’s all about debt.
WEALTHTRACK # 1638 broadcast on March 20, 2020

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Give Kessler his own show....

[@jerryfriedman1183]

I wish Kessler was my uncle. lol. what a great interview. Mack is always great.

[@ioannislazaridis4887]

I really wonder if younger economists - investing strategists have the same passion for their profession and same knowledge. The majority of professionals has brought up in a world with very low interest rates , easy borrowing terms and very low inflation.

[@redsed1565]

these peole are all sick and need a life!

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Kessler is amazing. I would invest with him, but i trust no one but myself with my money

[@billytheweasel]

same When this aired, required bank reserves were lowered to $0 and even vault cash requirement was set t $0.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Thank you wealth track ..great show.

[@jermainewilder3631]

you prolly dont give a damn but does anyone know of a method to get back into an Instagram account?? I was stupid forgot the account password. I appreciate any tips you can give me!

[@hunterkaden2701]

@Jermaine Wilder instablaster ;)

[@gregorioabrego]

Such valuable information!

[@franoreck]

Won’t our dolaor be devalued if the feds keep printing dollars?

[@samuelhastings6859]

maria oreck I have back tested with cash to 1978 it has a major drag on return by almost .5 % difference if 10% of portfolio is in cash vs us total equity - long treasury 50/50

[@billytheweasel]

It seems clear. Many say no, because other countries need USDs to pay their debt, and their central banks are counterfeiting currency like the Fed is here with QE. I say, it's a Ponzi scheme built on a house of cards. Gold has been the go-to store of value for centuries. The USD is tied to nothing but debt and counterfeiting practices. my .02

[@someoneelse.2252]

A good interview.

[@billytheweasel]

Glad we can comment. I love seeing these two. Kessler is a gem. He advised T's last year. (oops, she said that at 3:14) Why does he suggest more cash... store of value? If so, gold is far superior to the QE counterfeited USD. Is it because of the needed USD that foreign borrowers need to pay debt? ...But there is QE counterfeiting to supply Swap Lines... I'm stumped.

[@jc.1191]

The repo problem. No one wanted to get stuck holding those bonds when the market fell, the rates were too low. Oversupply of debt means the government has to buy the rest or rates will explode. Also, too many bad loans getting floated.

[@tombruigom7639]

Who will buy T-Bills when they go negative?

[@samuelhastings6859]

tom bruigom it’s a sign

[@somchai9033]

Japanese because they learned that getting most of your money back is better than losing a bundle in stocks or real estate.

[@jimo5758]

So on March 21, practically the very day the market hit the low point for 2020, Kessler says to "Raise cash." Since March 23, 2020, the S&P has experienced a historic rally, gaining approximately 30% (in one month). In a 30-year Treasury that he recommends, it would take more than 30 years to earn 30%. Timing is everything.

[@somchai9033]

Wrong. I made 30% this year in a 30 year treasury (ETF). You’re looking at the yield and not capital gains generated by falling rates. No one buys long bonds for yield any more

[@gmail3720]

Just sold all my corporate bonds today 4/20/20 ... hope you were right

[@rexmundi273]

Good move.

[@StephenDoty84]

This didn't age well. It sounded reasonable at the time, but the Fed changed the game a few days after this. So, Kessler recommended selling stocks and bonds at their lows for the year (so far), it turns out. If you bought the stock index after this interview, instead, you made about 40%.

[@somchai9033]

Give it another few months

[@StephenDoty84]

@@somchai9033 OK, he's like the clock in my basement. Give it a few more hours, and it will be right. ;)

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Pensions are toast.. Will interest rates ever rise again?

[@jc.1191]

Probably gonna be a while

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

JP moegan can do what ever they want. They will get bailed out in the end

[@billytheweasel]

You win the internet! So true. Corporate debt is now the trough instead of real estate. Same same but different.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Why cant kessler just call them all crooks?

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Define "Moron": a company that borrows billions in debt to do stock buy backs when the stock is waaaaay overpriced. Maybe they sell stock at all time lows to raise money🙄

[@ballergame1017]

Liquid assets is very sacred.

[@ballergame1017]

Commonsense investing indeed.I cant buy groceries with gold or pay for plane tickets so cash is king.

[@redsed1565]

These 2 are insane!

[@bgates275]

23:52, you lost your house? Sorry to hear that.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

No one lost their house, its in general, people lost their homes

[@somchai9033]

Haha. You missed the point

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Recession???? Try depression

[@Luis496]

I like the people in the show but Consuelo interrupts people too much.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Europe is no longer europe

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Im glad to say.... i dont own any stock. Wall street are all parasites

[@rexmundi273]

Indeed Wall Street doesn't produce anything. They steal.

[@jschreadley876]

9:04 "...you'll always get your money and always get the interest." Says who?

[@rexmundi273]

The US government can't default.