Raoul Pal: Get Ready For 'Macro Summer'-Falling Rates, Falling Inflation, And Growth Picking Up

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hey everyone! I hope you enjoy this episode with Raoul Pal as much as I did. Let me know what you think in the comments section below. Please hit the subscribe button, so you won't miss any new episodes. And please keep your guest suggestions coming. Thanks for your support. 💙Julia

[@marketobserved]

Raoul is a charlatan Julia definitely not a good look for the channel

[@mr.bullion6786]

A mistake to interview this guy.

[@alpinismutilitar3886]

must corelate with NPL cycle ... non performing loans cycle...!!! / country / states

[@patrickmcgoohan115]

I'm glad Raoul is so positive. Agenda 2030 is the UN doctrine. If there's one thing the 2020-2022 pan taught .me, they cloud the reasons in the shadows. There's a BIG disconnect between elites and the rest. I think we're still not near "the end of history" yet

[@RichardSKLim]

Raoul Pal is living in the Metaverse.

[@cybermuse6917]

😂

[@richardchapman-u1d]

poor old raoul hasnt got anything right for over two years including his dreadful bond trade he got stopped out of. Prob just needs to live quietly on his goldman pension and lay off with the advice….the tedious exponential age bollocks….

[@itsjustme114]

He was pretty vocal about buying Solana at the bottom. Amazing trade

[@BudToll]

Julia, recently found you on KZbin and I love these podcasts. I’m now addicted and can’t stop watching your interviews. One of the great things on how you facilitate these conversations is that you don’t interrupt your guests. You actually let them talk! All other interviewers regardless of medium always find a way to interrupt their guests. Thank you so much for allowing your audience to actually listen and hear your guests, it’s so refreshing! I do have one suggestion, it would be really helpful if your videos could display the date of the interview, or at the very least if you could state at the beginning of each interview, the date. As when I’m watching, I have absolutely no idea when you spoke to your guest, and I lose all frame of reference. I never know if the interview was a few days, weeks, months or at times years ago. Thanks for the great work, and please keep doing what you’re doing.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you for your kind words. I love listening to my guests. I appreciate the feedback on the dates. If you click the video description, KZbin will include it in the upper left corner. It's not the easiest to find! I can start mentioning it in my episodes. I did in the one I recorded today that will air tomorrow 😊

[@lancemairs4956]

His timelines don’t dovetail. we are years from nuclear or renewables making a significant difference, plus the infrastructure is not there, the grids are a mess. Debt creation has gone vertical. Not only have pensions and 401k’s been slaughtered but they are being drawn down. The world is actively ditching the dollar. I agree that they will do one last cycle of lower rates and more money printing but I think as many people will use this short-sugar-high period to get out as there are people duped to put money in. The cracks are now too many and have crumbled the foundation.

[@ICDeadPeeps]

I don't agree with everything that he said, but he's absolutely right on currency debasement. Governments all around the world know that they can't pay off the debt, so they're taking the easy route and debasing the currency instead. Like he said, it's a hidden form of taxation.

[@prebenpetersen5982]

You can’t go another round. Lower interest and people will fix rates from here to infinity and the inflation is off to the Moon.

[@Ron239]

Fascinating interview and slant on our current situation. Not as optimistic re AI technology as he is. If tech is so hot, why did SVB collapse?

[@matthewsalkeld5326]

Agreed. Basic grid infrastructure is in disrepair beyond its service life. Most wind and solar project proposals fail to launch since developers won't pay the costs to upgrade transmission infrastructure.

[@avordshaw6244]

SVB collapsed because it had way too much invested in low yield treasuries just like every other bank. And when the yield curve inverted and too many of its customers withdrew their money and the bank couldn’t cover the withdrawals. It’s a result of fractional reserve banking, irresponsible investment mix, with an inverted yield curve.

[@claudedelorme5605]

Raoul is the one person in cryptocurrency that I trust the most. He is extremely well researched and has an ability to communicate so well on the 4 year cycle. I always enjoy his interviews and I look forward to the next two years in crypto. Thanks for having him for this great one hour interview

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much!

[@lancemairs4956]

He’s not as sure as he pretends; always before he commits to an opinion he does a nervous tick, generally a quick but hard scratching. He doesn’t really know.

[@salucho7794]

News flash….. no one knows the future…… we take and make bets with higher and lower probabilities of success… if you’re looking for a fortune teller you should go to the Carnival. I have profited a great deal from his advice but it’s all risky and we do our best. That’s all!

[@jaymulla3063]

Great interview asking straight forward great question while letting him speak excellent I learned a lot

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much, Jay. 😊My approach is to speak less and listen more. I want my guests to be the focus. I'm glad you liked it!

[@tomw8418]

Raoul never covers the yield curve inversion. Would love to hear his take on it.

[@erik8719]

There are a lot of haters in the comments. Raoul has been right so far, and I think his thesis will come true. Raoul has helped me in my investing journey. He taught me a lot, and I will always be grateful for his education.

[@issenvan1050]

How can growth pick up while inflation is falling? The opposite of stagflation? 😂

[@Weetorp]

Inflation is lagging.

[@issenvan1050]

@@Weetorp ?

[@mtenniswood]

Hm. Love Raul...think he's way off on his narrative though.

[@petelipson3769]

Great job Julia

[@vonAlec]

Time will tell, but don't really trust a word this guy says. The demand and growth picture in the US is deteriorating, not sure how that works for his spring summer analogy.

[@kombe971]

He’s got a lot right the past 12 months

[@therealtimray]

This was a really good talk, lots of understanding provided

[@lancemairs4956]

There are not two worlds. Crypto world and fear world, how about a real world maybe somewhere in between?

[@stealthcamo712]

(This is long and I'm sorry 😅. Im asking you to walk with me in thought as an opinion and opposite side.) -- I've been listening to Raoul for a few years now and I still understsnd his theories (as best as I know) and I'm still not convinced of his overall view of the new world of Ai and Crypto and the digital communities. Maybe in 10yrs I'm pretty sure we will see some of these things, but not how he's thinking. 50-70% of consumption is things that the consumers don't need (depending on country). If people can't get ahead and Ai will drive GDP and supply... who will buy? Ai needs much less, than us humans (Ai will need networking, storage, chips, other hardware and software. We could add robotics to that in the future). So, Ai will not buy what humans consume.... so again, who buys? And how does Real GDP grow? Crypto has been a true ride in both directions and one of the biggest markets for scams too (XRP, Tether, FTX, Binance, alt-coins). Many have had legal actions, been shutdown, or are virtually worthless. I do believe Bitcoin and Etherium will stay, because one can't have inflation and the other can be used for conditional contracts called 'smart contracts'. This blockchain tech also created NFTs, which have been shown to be worthless as they've been used as receipts for a payment to another party, but have no real value (at least so far). This space will be heavily regulated and also have taxes along with other restrictions and bigger players that will influence the future of crypto. Crypto and the community around it won't influence it's future. -- Lastly, the idea of community in the digital world, yes, this does exist, but not as a socialized group, but as a following to a head-piece (streamers, content creators, corps, service provider). These head-pieces can provide something good and healthy, but also get the money and bulk of the influence. The type of community he's talking about I can't see happening, because I see how people are in this space very often and people revert to the same way of doing things in different mediums. Some of Raoul's ideas I agree with and how it will all turn out, in his view, is simply a view (Im glad he acknowledges this). We don't know how things will be long term just like the creation of the internet, the banking system, the Fed Reserve, the UN, etc. We all want to believe we live in a world where everyone can have equal influence and equal financies, but we do have equal opportunity in our groups with those around us (physically, digitally). All of this newer tech is amazing to watch and scary, but we aren't in control, not yet and if Ai gets it's own individuality and liberty... who knows, folks... I'll be sitting right there with y'all watching.

[@avordshaw6244]

The government will tax the robots to fund the UBI for displaced workers. That’s how.

[@RichardSKLim]

But it"s interesting to listen to him.

[@Laphroaig16]

Recently signed up to the Real Vision platform and love it.

[@stevewoitas7217]

Re. the Macro summer theory, where will investors cash and leverage come from to drive the markets higher from here? High inflation and interest rates have stunted the desire of retail investors to borrow and invest.

[@astronautnoob5070]

It’s not only retail investors. They hardly move the markets in comparison. There’s a lot of funds with cash on the side that is waiting to deploy. Funds sitting on the high billions of dollars.

[@mrs.rabbit621]

Raoul seems convinced that AI and robots are going to increase productivity. Here’s the reason to doubt his theory: He should also consider the issue of where the young people are going to work to be able to purchase the widgets that the robots create. Historically, manufacturing has been the bridge for the uneducated population to advance their positions in the economy. Once the manufacturing jobs are automated, this leaves only low paying service jobs (fast food & retail) or professional jobs (doctors & engineers). We are already seeing the result of disenfranchised youths with the rise in the mass looting of retail stores in big cities. When robots are building everything, where will the nonprofessionals work? It’s always the same, few get richer on the backs of the many. There is a reason AOC wore the dress, “Tax the Rich”. Soon the mantra will be “Kill the Rich”. We need sound money to level the playing field. I envision much turmoil. Edited: I just got to the part where Raoul explains that we are social animals and gravitate to community. We will be cheerleaders for the the chosen few, ie, Taylor Swift. There are those of us with an independent spirit, who won’t be pacified with just being promoters. Our purpose is to create! To be productive! To strive for better! To work harder for the betterment of our children! We don’t want a paycheck without opportunity. Lol. When Social Security was first instituted, there were people who believed that the social security number was the mark of the beast. My great-grandparents would not accept a social security number. The only reason we have mass adoption is due to government regulations. The world that he envisions can only be maintained with strict government control. When he suggests basic income, that is what I know as Socialism. The theory of a socialism society is that all work together for the betterment of all. Unfortunately, in a socialist society, there are those people (leaders) who demand to excel and be seen above all, no matter the consequences for the whole. That’s when leaders like Hitler and Mussolini come to power. I still see turmoil.

[@brocu1]

hence the introduction of universal basic income is inevitable

[@Summerdee223]

@@brocu1 I don't know of a socialist or communist country that has universal basic income. If you do, please name the country.

[@nathanchandler2341]

Logical conclusion I'm hearing... Influencers are the wave of the future 😂

[@ghostgear5104]

@@brocu1 There is now way UBI can cover entire populations...absolutely impossible....Raoul is completely off his rocker.

[@rustyscrapper]

Self driving cars and trucks didn't work. Instead of admitting they can't get it to work, they move on to the next false savior. Robots! Because we couldn't get a robot to productively drive around on 4 tires, so now we're going to make them humanoid shape and then it will work!

[@MS-dx6yz]

Aye, Raug Pul! Fun guest. Thanks for having him on.

[@maryjones8354]

Raoul Pal is THE definition of a hack and no self-respecting show should ever give him airtime. Please never host him again. LOVE YOU & THANK YOU for all you do

[@kimpinkham5804]

What is he smoking

[@shammuk02]

Well Peter Schiff disagrees w raoul … it would be epic if they had a debate

[@eddieonthegotravel]

They have. Worth a search.

[@dongeorge3441]

Raoul and a few others, convinced me to get into BTC for the long term. I'm 56 and still working and building the nest egg. BTC will be the very last asset I sell, as I get older. And then, only if I have to in small pieces.

[@tonyfrattaroli7371]

Julia I would have loved to hear Raoul’s number figure as well. Kudos for asking him.

[@Kevin-eg6vg]

Raoul Paul is a scammer

[@yourdad-rq1zm]

Pal

[@Charles-lz2tz]

Everybody is bullish on stocks and Bitcoin. Crash must be around the corner

[@avordshaw6244]

Whose everybody?? Your average person in the world doesn’t even know what crypto is and the ones who have heard about it think it’s a scam.

[@curtisabbey1388]

The guy is spreading falsehoods about the Federal Reserve.

[@GrinsInc]

Thanks for posting Julia. Cheers SV Good Karma as Grins.

[@WhamskiBam]

love this fucking guy

[@georgejr84]

great pod

[@BatmanBoss]

Robots and AI are going to make everything better so there can be way less people. Thanks

[@neoultramegapunkliberal5148]

I think this dude is not quite aware of what inflation is. Go see the debtclock

[@11227denis]

19:00 Your welcome! That was sweet

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

😊💙

[@sorrycharlie4127]

Wishful thinking....

[@mvexler]

Interesting viewpoint Raoul. I will gladly send my AI powered avatar to live in the cryptoland 😮

[@fab6327]

Very interesting!

[@pamelaberendes6881]

Love it. Great questions! Raoul is my favourite Macro-Crypto Person.

[@XRPm00ning]

I would like to see Raoul Pal have a debate with Warren Buffett who is anti crypto.

[@ThetaBurnVictim]

He got an interesting theory for sure. So really all you need to do according to him is buy BTC and wait for technology to save us from the central bankers and corrupt governments…

[@curtisabbey1388]

This guy needs to stop embarrassing himself.

[@brittburns9582]

Keep up the great work!!!!

[@thiagocury3776]

Growth picking up? We have recession signs though

[@MB-tz7by]

Subscribed!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you 😊

[@gianmariamalmesi4133]

If you wanna get involved in the crypto space without really being exposed to it directly crypto miners are a pretty good option, unless BTC crash RIOT and MARA look quite promising. Talking about AI and biotech names like CRSP, PACB and RENB looks like they are very well positioned to have explosive growth. If we consider AI as the pivot of the new technological revolution some software producers like PATH should grow exponentially considering they serve different industries.

[@ronchandler8799]

If, robots and AI are intended to be the solution for a shrinking population,then what’s the explanation for bringing millions into the country across the southern border, to make sure the welfare offices stay open? He is theorizing something that conflicts with the reality on the ground…

[@istt7114]

Beware Bitcoin!

[@walkonearthofficial]

I just picture Lagarde bringing this guy up in meetings like "Can we just pay him to stop talking, he connects all the dots and just wont stop telling everyone about it!" hahaha!

[@dexinvictus6103]

Lagarde is a dumb criminal, but, she's not bringing up this tool except to laugh at

[@bercoproductsinc.5886]

Raoul should be viewed as many see Jim Kramer. Whatever he predicts *** do the opposite. I think he’s a guy that enjoys hearing himself speak. I think you do a great job of interviewing. Most of your guests have important things to say. Stay away from this guy to help your views and ratings.

[@LibertarianRF]

Yeah he's pushing his own book

[@deanchalmers3866]

Hmmm has been right a lot lately.

[@denniskaye5026]

@Notaslave1961 A con man! See my comment.

[@tomcockcroft9394]

Well Tesla and btc are the best performers over last decade. What have you done? 😂

[@victorsperandeo3609]

Julia your a delight to watch . You should offer personality lessons to Donald Trump ? He would rule the world then ! Your interviews are all good.

[@Russell_Huston]

Every time he says "balance sheet" I wish he would say "money printing" instead. Not a criticism, just a way to make the reality of the thing more clear. What he says about interest being monetized out, even if the debt itself is not, IS interesting. In the end that is inflationary as well. I wish the Fed would just keep their rate at something reasonable, like 4%, so borrowing is available, but demanding some sense of discipline for businesses and individuals. As it stands, the markets seem to believe all problems are solved with liquidity (money printing) and technological innovation, the business cycle (economic gravity) has been repealed, too big to fail continues, and the Fed will always come to the rescue because they can always steer us through the rock and the hard place undamaged. That's faith.

[@jamesbowman1767]

38:31, I'm with him on gene editing and space. META earns money from Ads. When companies face budget restraints, they will cut ad spend. AAPL has a huge weighting in Nasdaq. AAPL is way overvalued.

[@mobfxtrading]

yea, this guys not on planet earth

[@walkonearthofficial]

17:02

[@Weetorp]

His own macro model says we are leaving summer. Winter is coming...

[@thehungergames8918]

Etherium 🏆😃👊

[@b_tang]

8:40 We need technological advances to increase productivity to grow the GDP to pay the debt. But! Increasing productivity is deflationary, which makes the debt harder to pay off. These forces are in conflict. How does this end?

[@jamesbowman1767]

Another out of touch with reality AI freak. I've listened to many hours of Rauls ramblings over the years and he is indeed a smart dude that makes a lot of sense....sometimes. But to get AI where he thinks it will be, it will take MUCH longer and cost MUCH more than his imagination is grasping. And, it will be devastating to certain jobs, which he is underestimating the devastation. Thomas Sowell once said; There are no solutions, but only trade-offs". Not to blame Raul directly, but when you have been a Hedge fund manager (and the likes) for your entire working career and sit down in the Carribean looking around the globe, never having a real job that produces products or goods, you're naturally going to be out of touch. But as the saying goes; "would you rather be right, or would you rather make money" If Wall Street thinks this, they will throw monopoly money at it, and you want to get some of the Cantillon affect. I think he is not doing the math on debt problem well, but I'll keep listening. I'm at 22 minutes now.

[@EMan-cu5zo]

Not a fan of this guy personally.

[@hologramplanes]

Inflation is going NOWHERE 😢 big oversight

[@WingofTech]

This man speaks very eloquently, he should write for more journals!

[@fl0ridaman123]

thank you Julia for another great interview

[@jamesbowman1767]

32:00 min. If companies cash is going up at 5% per year because they are buying 5% yielding bonds and inflation is 10% (not the headline CP Lie) then they are losing 5% per year in real terms. Come on Rual, you know the difference between real and Nominal. You're better than this.

[@anniealexander9616]

Not everything is 10%. When shtf, everything goes on sale. Cash is king during deflation. I was saving cash before the housing crash. It definitely appeared that I was losing money. But I deployed that cash in 07 and 08 and bought homes for pennies on the dollar. This week, I put all of my paycheck in a high yield savings account at 5.5. I'm watching people spend like crazy and run up debt. When they can't make their payments, I'll buy from the bank for pennies on the dollar.

[@juliorivas7428]

Fascinating analysis. Thanks Julia.

[@mattverville9227]

The inflation cause is the only thing that i really disagree with. He blames the chaos of the pandemic. I blame the printing of money. He used post world war 2 as an example but we printed a shit ton of money for thr war. It could be the type of thing where its a little of both but without a doubt, you cant print money infinitely and not expect inflation

[@curtisabbey1388]

Very little credibility.

[@jacquesreilly1850]

He's become a quack. Yep, I said it.

[@martynfenton3814]

And yet you can't even buy a big Mac with bitcoin. Not that would even want to buy that muck

[@wayneatwell7039]

I keep losing respect for Raoul every time he speaks. I can’t believe he actually believes that wind and solar are good for the environment and produce cheap energy. If it is cheap then why do Germany and California that have the most wind and solar have the highest electricity cost? I don’t trust anything he says anymore

[@ICDeadPeeps]

So I have a tinfoil hat theory on the green trend; it's an agenda bought and paid for by China (and possibly Russia). China benefits the most since they control most of the rare earth supply chain tied to "electrification" of everything. Russia benefits because they knew solar and wind doesn't scale well and it isn't feasible for a lot of countries. I believe it's also the reason why the green agenda pushers rejected nuclear energy (see Germany) and it would meaningfully reduce the need for Russia's fossil fuels. I don't think it's a coincidence they rolled out the red carpet for Xi's recent visit to California; China bought them out.

[@fl0ridaman123]

the electricity markets are more nuanced than what you probably believe. I suggest you educate yourself on the issue

[@wayneatwell7039]

@@fl0ridaman123 I have spent thousands of hours researching the energy markets. The majority of my net worth is invested in energy so I take it very seriously

[@kemptonbryan]

Came here to say the same

[@kemptonbryan]

@@fl0ridaman123what’s the renewable plan at night when it isn’t windy?

[@kevinkasimov651]

Overly optimistic

[@spiffffffffff]

"I hope my bitcoin helps me with my down payment." Not unless you sell it, and that won't help pump the ponzi.

[@robertpollard1895]

I've been working in the I.T industry for 15 years. We've been using AI since before I began in I.T. All the people who don't understand AI thinks it's revolutionary, but if you've seen what I've seen, it's very very old news. Nothing new coming here

[@PeterKontor]

Tell this to my boss while our clients business slow if not dead and they are firing people. No chance for a raise while food is 50-100% more expensive. Raul, get off your island and world of charts and come to the real world

[@skillz4life360]

Raoul's one of the best

[@Mike-B.]

Bitcoin ETF is a very BAD thing, VERY BAD !!

[@robertbaldwin5771]

Wow - so wrong? Inflation & interest rates will rise. Shortages will fire inflation not economic growth & speculation. Anyone in govt bonds will lose his shirt.

[@JL-OnwardandUpward]

Come on man, we are 34 Trillion in debt. The stock market is a rigged casino. Raul, Bitcoin and AI is your magic bullet to make everything ok....

[@MsPapalas]

Interest rates and inflation falling while growth is picking up for the whole year? thats oxymoron by definition 😂

[@rustyscrapper]

That happens if the population works harder for less money, saves more and pays off their debts while earning less. Good luck with that. It's possible for human behavior to change and do that, but look at the population we have. It's not happening.

[@markroden9968]

Raol Pal is just a salesman. Look into his background. Dude looks good in a suit but all his calls are wrong.

[@jcpatrick4824]

BRILLIANT SUMMARY👍🎯🙏

[@jcpatrick4824]

10 m

[@jcpatrick4824]

20 minutes

[@QueasyArmadilloGaming-fu9pt]

Thanks for having Raoul on. Really enjoy his content.

[@Mrzizzy69]

what no recession .....