Raoul Pal in Conversation with Grant Williams | Interview | Real Vision™

[@cjsandoval]

I really appreciate when Real Vision puts out these interviews!

[@ausstraya9120]

So nice to listen to people discussing opinions, information, facts and problems without personal insults, agendas and ridicule. Thank You Gentlemen.

[@sophrapsune]

It would be really helpful if RealVision did a focus programme on the Australian bubble. Great discussion, thanks.

[@theartistformerlyknownasbe9703]

It's called the Kangaroo Bubble.

[@joshnalder5011]

I would be really interested in watching this

[@musicalfringe]

"2019's going to clear up a lot of these things... unless something stops this cycle" Just about got chills hearing that in 2021.

[@cclose14111]

Love Grant and Raoul. My humble thoughts on what I think Grant and Raoul (and perhaps a few others?) are missing on Tesla. 1.) $/kWh manufatucring cost for batteries. Tesla is way ahead and getting further ahead. 2.) Being able to regenerate the battery/not drain the battery during acceleration/breaking due to amperage requirements/bottleneck in battery pack. Tesla just bought the global best in class capacitor company that addresses these issues. Very good for cars. Huge fore semi. 3.) Same acquisition has new technology which DOES NOT require solvent/heat based application of cathode anode in battery manufacture. This increases battery density and storage capacity and MASSIVELY decreases energy inputs/cost for manufacturing AND alleviates toxic solvent which must be evaporated off in current process. Decreases manufacturing cost, (See 1 above) and decreases battery volume and weight. Less battery cost/weight/volume and MORE range. Also compare competitors batteries use of cobalt to Tesla's. Eye opening. 4.) New chipset for autonomous driving. Current chipset (nVidia) optimized for video output. In house designed chipset is an order of magnitude faster. 5.) Fleet miles driven using current autopilot. No one is even close, again by an order of magnitude. 6.) Do you think Tesla is getting smarter or dumber in regards to number of parts need to manufacture cars/types of fittings fasteners etc? 7.) Legacy players have dealership networks which chew tinto margins. 8.) Legacy players have internal politics resistance to fight in regards to how to accolocate talent and resources. 9.) Legacy players still have advertising expenses which Tesla has none of. 10.) Supercharger network. Where you gonna charge your Audi, Porsche, etc? 11.) Tesla has vertically integrated their supply chain. Legacy manufacturers exist at behest of 3rd party suppliers. 12.) Rate of innovation matters. #jerk en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics) NO ONE is even close nor can they compete. Just a few points I never hear the bears come within hailing distance of addressing. Have more if interested.

[@cclose14111]

It is indeed hard to make a credible case to a dedicated skeptic. Credo s t mus tis nt, I you he we you they believe. Even Hume's thoughts on belief (A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence.) leaves both sides wanting. For what does what video s t mus tis nt mean?

[@cclose14111]

All that being said biggest threat/credence from the bear side in my estimation is short/medium term cash flow. Cogent analysis from Perseid Capital here. www.perseid-capital.com/blog/2019/03/12/tesla-cashflow-projection/ Curious to see impact from Model Y/Semi deposits on this/precison of underlying data in building model here. Other rabbits could be pulled which will make bears wail (perhaps even rightly so.), but is all fair in love, war, and the existential battle for survival? Also curious to see macro/Fed impact.

[@cclose14111]

Some very tough sledding ahead shaping up from the macro side? threadreaderapp.com/thread/1106888860259233792.html

[@kylemcgregor99]

William Grant has such an incredible point about the “toxic behaviour” from social forums when there is a conflict of opinion. Absolutely brilliant observation, I must admit.

[@johnl4469]

Terrific conversation fellas. Thanks Raoul, thanks Grant.

[@blakedshiel]

Just fantastic gentlemen! Thank you.

[@mrtimharrington]

Any idea why Grant left RV in the end?

[@nunoalexandre6408]

How I Learned To Stop Worrying And start Love The central Banks !!!!! Thank you sir Peter seller !!!!!!!!!!

[@TheAgTeam]

Very enlightening and enjoyable guys. Thanks for the learned insights and objective opinions

[@misty671]

Thanks gents. I really enjoyed the conversation.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Raoul is spot on....

[@doramason]

well this was recorded before powell did a 180 and capitulated to the market. I wonder how Grant feels now.

[@daleholmgren6078]

I was just going to type the same thing now, 4/29/20, with Powell in full money spraying mode. Jay turned out to be just like Janet Yellen, Bernanke, Greenspan, etc.

[@georgiaa213]

It appears that we are stuck in this system if no one can stop throwing paper at the problem. The reset coming will be painful if not downright frightening

[@danriverso1053]

Not just Australia, Canada as well! Great discussion.

[@aleaiactaest8354]

Great conversation!

[@aspant4814]

Great talk. There are enough countries forming alternatives to the USD, simply to step aside from a weaponized dollar. Even countries that work with the US but also trade with sanctioned countries are involved. Swift will die from it's predominant function due to it's obselence and it's politicization and the USD will eventually lose it's reserve status. Slowly at first but as it takes hold it will be unstoppable. Asia and Europe will be the determinants. Aircraft carrier fleets, CIA and NSA won't be enough to hold the system together. Next financial system please!

[@bitethebullet8213]

it's all about the breakdown of trust globally...when trust breaks down...gold shines.

[@andrewgray2029]

Great chat fellas!

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Bill ackman shorted a patently fraudulent Herbalife, yet, because of carl Icahn, he lost his bet. Its like shorting Sears, and still losing money

[@Gunni1972]

Herbalife still exists? i once met a saleswoman. not exactly trustworthy, but Beautiful to look at.

[@rof8200]

Raoul called BTC at $3000, he's still wrong. Sorry. Lol. But Raoul was right about the USD,oil and a bunch of other stuff. And he's way smarter than me.

[@gen-X-trader]

how was that wrong? the low was made at 3128 the week of dec 18 2018

[@rof8200]

@@gen-X-trader He fully sold out at $3,000, as in before the boom.

[@skyoung419z]

Rof Lhard he’s back in btc

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Few people know themselves, therefore, they follow the majority, simply because they themselves do not know how they feel or what to think about anything. Understanding one's self takes much time and hard work. No one encourages self understanding these days.

[@robynellison3790]

So true

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Two of my favorite matadors! I don't care what they discuss.

[@kirstinstrand6292]

@David Chorak I shorted TSLA a while back. It's been a hell of a hold, but it's starting to do what I, and many others knew would happen. Your system sounds doable.

[@dougl8248]

As a gold investor I am shorting everything. Can't see how this continues and it is taking a whole lot of I'm right to hang in there.

[@mld962]

its going to crash on april. Quote me on it

[@dougl8248]

@@mld962 I'll hold you to it.

[@johntheaccountant5594]

@@mld962 April 2019 has passed and it has not crashed. It is now December 2020 and it still has not crashed. They keep pumping/printing money in. It should have crashed but it hasn't and they can keep pumping money in and the Corona Virus BS is enabling that even more.

[@thetruth4548]

Hope you're not as wrong on Bitcoin as you were on TSLA! How do you feel now?

[@NuggetsNews]

I love your commentary but your understanding of bitcoin forks is wrong. The forks have only proven bitcoins resilience and anti fragility.

[@NuggetsNews]

@Maaa-aaa-aaate People in developing countries are using Bitcoin to put food on the table because their government has screwed the monetary system.

[@Sebaiancu]

Love their content but did they really say there is no edge in trading short term ?

[@bicyclingaround8405]

Porsche will make an EV that's 10 times better than Tesla ? In what way exactly will it be 10 times better ? $3500 price tag ? 3000 mile range ? 0-60 in 0.3 seconds ? top speed of 1600 mph ? charging times of 5 mins for full charge ?

[@wabbitrage8358]

I think it was just an expression. I think the point was it will be measurably better than a telsa.

[@kylemcgregor99]

Statistically in a Macro view point! He wasn’t talking about micro view points, product related numbers about performance of a specific vehicle has nothing to do with Tesla’s overvalued price per share and the pressure of competitors entering the market..

[@pirate0jimmy]

Porsche electric vehicles will be amazing. Porsche is a maker of "actual cars" that have an internal combustion engine. When they make an electric, it will be as good or better than the ICE version. Never underestimate Germans and their machines.

[@Felicidade101]

love that ending

[@royreyes8422]

this is nice

[@YuccaSpeedShop]

$TSLAQ

[@YuccaSpeedShop]

And Bitfinex'd, man you guys are living in my world now between this in $TSLAQ. Welcome, haha.

[@Kid_Ikaris]

Tesla's share price should not be where it is - 2018

[@adammac6386]

Still correct, just wrong in the short term. Tesla will go back to $100 long term.

[@Kid_Ikaris]

@@adammac6386 no it won't. It will either be bankrupt or be fundamentally worth more than 100$ per share even using conservative value investing methodologies. Do I think it's over priced. Yes. Do I own any. No. But technology stocks fundamentally don't trade according to 15 P/E average ratios promulgated in the 1950's. The only thing more sad than watching a Tesla Fan boy think the stock will go up forever is the equally zealous detractor.

[@victorsperandeo3609]

When you charge 2+20% you have to be expected to preform. A 3 year lock up is a terrible deal ...perhaps ask why not 50 bps and 5% for 3 years? Managers want there cake...? Also nothing in the markets is honest-all manipulated ! So the game is unpredictable as the “market” does not exist. Would request you gents comment on central banks controlling the markets -in the future. Thank you excellent thoughts.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

So.. were japan now😢?

[@ryanshaeffer103]

forks of bitcoin are not bitcoin! they are copies with modified code.

[@TheJoshGalt]

Who’s Mark?

[@AmitKKarpe]

Mark Cohodes. He’s a well known short seller.

[@stevenoliver9728]

I thought he said Mark Hurd.

[@JustAnotherJarhead]

I loved the banging on Tesla being a hollow false company....lol

[@greigsanderson]

Are they flirting?

[@philnewpower]

watching this in 2021!! GO TO 34:30 !!!!!!

[@lukejolley8354]

LONG AND WWRROONGGGGGGGGGGVVVVVVVVGGGG BABY!

[@Felicidade101]

yields to collapse in bonds?

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

What did marriner Eccles always say..." THERE IS NO AGGREGATE DEMAND"!!!!!!! and thats the problem, fix that, fix the economy

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Gold and bitcoin is great like Tulip bulbs...lets do it🤪🤪🤪

[@mgorbaty]

Tesla & Elon musk mention @ 51:12 “Do you think it’s a total fraud?” “I do. I think it’s a total and utter fraud.”

[@bozwellio]

Such confidence yet so wrong. I wonder what they say about Tesla now. Do they have the ability to change their mind based on new information? I'm guessing they'll both still be bears on Tesla until it reaches 200 billion revenue. Perhaps then that'll be enough evidence for them.

[@Dean10000]

I would like raoul and Grant to answer this lol

[@SuperTommy2005]

I remember that episode, they were looking for a tesla bull for a while. crazy to think that now.

[@idk_bud]

30:35

[@cjoe1950]

Raoul Pal Raol Paul Raon Paul Ron Paul By golly! He is related to Ron Paul!

[@p.m.8316]

buy bitcoin

[@lyonwisss7241]

They assume you know all their cronies.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

They printed 16 trillion dollars globally... gold does go up. Either the market is broke...or gold is junk

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

I would have done a jobs program like fdr and marriner eccles did.... just do what they did...ww3 too would help. Also, tax the rich at 95%

[@longgowhereto]

Rythm is way too loud to listen to Grant with concentration. I leave at 0:24. Not all laptops are equally mixed - Thinkpads somehow support the drums.