Excel - Time Series Forecasting - Part 1 of 3

[@tansutazegul8297]

It has been almost 7 years since I graduated MBA classes, you know what, I desperately needed the time series forecasting which I learned back then. Thats exactly what I needed . I have recalled everything thanks to you. The explanation is easy to understand, and very clear.

[@fitfirst4468]

Tansu "the bum with bad memory" Tazegul

[@TimothyChenAllen]

Terrific! I just used the technique from these three videos on a real-world 4-year dataset related to Natural Disasters. The forecast was excellent; I compared the 5th year forecast versus a partial set of actual data from the 5th year, and it fit very nicely! Your explanation was very clear. Thank you so much for sharing this.

[@ajayv304]

Searching for this content from last five years. Thanks a lot.

[@rajnajat]

I disagree with Mr Ivan...... Whatever repetitions you have done not only clarified the subject more, but it also did a bit of revision. One should think about people who are totally alien to the subject , and not about those who know too much ABOUT THE SUBJECT ! I am compelled to say that that the author and commentator of this video is one of the greatest teachers EVER ! ( this is my first video for him, but I am a physician and I know how to evaluate something ! Congratulations to the Jalayer Academy and thanks for being kind to spend your time and money for the common and downtrodden man !

[@SophiaBude-l2n]

I think this series is so helpful in breaking down the steps to this process! I especially like the visualization component of adding a graph. Overall, I appreciate the explanation of why each step is taken in this process - I think it makes the whole equation easier to understand.

[@Aykeikei]

@11:00 why do you take the MVA of 4 quarters and put it in the 3rd quarter location? so you have 2 from the past, 1 current, and the 1 of the future.

[@99imelda]

Did you get an answer to this ?

[@evob20]

I also would like to know why he did this

[@dioneharringtonthedionsaur]

@@evob20 at the end of the day it doesn't matter where he places it, it was just to show the average of all four within that quarter. He said it should really be in the middle but the next best visual idea was to put it in the 3rd cell going down. To clarify, the average is all four added together and divided by 4.

[@dovendriet7739]

When we use odd no moving average say 3. We need to take the moving average only for 1time that means if we take three quarter moving average of 1,2 and 3 the answer which we get by averaging them needs to be place in the centre that is 2 . But in case of even moving average say 4(1,2,3&4) the centre is 2.5 and the centre for the next observation (2,3,4,5) is 3.5 , that's why we need to do moving average again for 1time by taking the value which we get in 2.5 and 3.5 .Now the centre of 2.5 and 3.5 is 3. Hopes this satisfy you

[@jadyndsouza7510]

@@dovendriet7739 thanks for the clarification buddy :))

[@ARIMLEE-i7d]

Thank you so much for all the lessons you’ve shared. Your clear explanations and dedication have helped me a lot.

[@santiagoespinbasany5028]

I learned more with this three videos than with a bunch of books. Thank you very much!

[@joanbadellgiralt3489]

Very good patates amb suc!!!

[@jessicabulger5679]

Thank you for all the help this semester, the youtube videos helped a lot! Happy Holidays!

[@SUNYULLEE]

Thank you for this semester ! Your youtube videos were really helpful. Have a great break!

[@GIANNAKFOURY]

Thank you for this past semester! Have a good break!

[@clivebuhagiar7326]

This series of 3 is fantastic! Thanks so much. It's really straightforward to follow and does exactly what I need.

[@raheem201231]

6 years later, still helpful

[@anushamehrishi]

Thank you for your help this semester, it was really fun and the videos/class powerpoints and explanations made statistics way easier!

[@ameliakoch3846]

Enjoy the holidays, thanks for a great semester! I learned a lot

[@flipflip3271]

Excellent job describing how yo perform a time series analysis. A lot of views but not a lot of subscribers. Support this channel!

[@AUDREYTOBIN-jd9zc]

Thank you for all the helpful videos and lessons! Happy holidays.

[@mohamednazaralali4441]

Dear Jalayer, I would like to thank you for these productive videos. It exactly step by step which I benefit a lot and I appreciate your patience in doing the video, please keep up the great work.

[@engineeringhacks7978]

Excellent tutorial, I am power Engineer and i have learned nice skills here... Bravo, get us more...

[@terrymchale1605]

You saved me bruh! I was struggling with no idea now i can copy paste this, Lifesaver

[@YEONWOOYOO]

Thank you for all the lessons this semester the youtube videos helped a lot !

[@paigedejesus5556]

Thank you for these videos they were very helpful throughout the semester. happy holidays

[@rachelkuannn]

Thank you so much for a great class! Ive learned a lot and these videos are very helpful!

[@dudefromsa]

The theory is sharp and precise and the examples are simply to the point. This 3 part video is easy to understand and practise. Highly recommend this time series tutorial

[@Inquire98]

"Thank GOD 🙏🏾", and thank you very much for sharing your support and time 😉 That was REALLY Really really good 👍🏿 Long, but good...

[@hessamharandi7954]

You have the knowledge and know how to teach. Great job and thanks a lot!

[@garymcnair2073]

Thank you so much for saving me. I have been struggling with this for a few weeks and this assignment is due on Monday. Until I found your video, I had no clue on how to do my assignment and I am grateful that you took time out to post this because I'm hoping that I can use your example to follow to do my assignment and pass my class. Forever thankful :).

[@ANTHONYSALAZARLPZ]

thanks for you tutorial jalayer, i just want to know if that example makes up all the ARIMA process thanks again

[@tbangera]

Awesome, one of the best explanation on Time Series using Excel, you made it look so simple...

[@dhananjaykansal8097]

Just wanna say. May God Bless You! Amen!

[@oddstatschannel]

i paused on 16:59.. till now steps are ok to follow..the one thong i cant understand is the positionof the MA & CMA. To start with if we ask MA of 4 why to put it on 3rd cell? My logic would indicate to me to start at cell 4 in your sheet in actual cell E7...Can someone explain to me? Thank you

[@ibrahimozturk6147]

Great video series. I have learned and applied in bussiness. I am looking forward to see the R version of the series.

[@LIACOLTON]

Great video, using time series forecasting in Excel will help me predict trends and make data-driven decisions in marketing.

[@kailashmehta7568]

Great video ! cover fundamental of forecasting . How to manage forecasting in excel , especially if products or sku is more than 5000.

[@claudiaroman917]

Thank you so much for the videos professor! They were very useful.

[@satishb9975]

Thank you i learnt so much from the videos. I really don't know liked the teaching, tone and the pace is so good to understand easy in details explained you are a great teacher and a gift to the students 👌😀

[@amaturetrader1393]

How can we use this in call centre where we have to forecast interval wise one hour interval..

[@sameeroza6588]

Thanks a ton, it was really helpful, however have couple of questions. 1.I have 5 yrs mnth wise gold price data & so for 12 mnth how shud i take the moving avg for e.g. assume data is in C1:C12, so should I take the first average in D12 & drag all the way down? 2.I observed that there is no cyclic effect in the data, so can the above method be still used to go further with the analysis or is there any model that I should use? I need to make a time series analysis on Gold prices &USD Exchnge rate

[@elrctron_box3561]

Which forecasting model are we using over here?

[@valentinabaiamonte9495]

What if you have different variables over time that you want to analyse altogether? Can you add other variables to your linear regression? How does it work? Your videos are just GEM, you are such a talented tutor, thank you for you work!

[@joebrowning7899]

Awesome job, you saved me a lot of headaches! Thanks so much! You the man!

[@logeshraja9416]

Hey thank you , @jalayer academy , Can you please let how did you decide to do Moving average on 4 periods

[@allandavis6116]

4 periods is one year, the assumption is that the data is cyclic with period 1 year

[@shreyasinha4980]

Thanks for the video. Just wanted to know if I have to do it for a year do I have to take a moving average of 12 months. If so wouldnt it lead to a lot of loss of data?

[@Rahulraj1093]

It was very helpful.....I gone through all 3 videos. Very well explained Thanks you so much

[@ROCKONNORG]

Excellent! Made a very complicated subject easy to understand

[@sgteamx]

Thanks for the video! What types of forecasting is this, and why was it chosen compared to say, exponential smoothing / ARMA / Weighted moving average?

[@mohitmayoor8052]

Awesome one. Made it completely clear. Thanks a lot sir

[@avinashrdy]

Great video. Could you also explain the Holt's winter multiplicative model in forecasting using excel? Also, some of the statistics like MAPE using excel?

[@kanzakicyn]

10 years later, using this for my assignment. Thank you

[@rezaulislam3885]

I did use the technique to forecast the rice of rice and gas over 20 years back data and get good result.

[@Flylikea]

Thanks, I was looking for an excel version of time series.

[@nikhilnayan6003]

Thankyou for the video. Really helped me to clear my understanding of time series forecasting.

[@ernestoseijas]

Do you have a video that discusses the benefit of daily weekly or monthly forecasting?

[@arif28may]

It is extremely illustrative and helpful. Thank you very much

[@LuckUzumaki]

This helped me a lot, i will be using it my final paper. Could you please tell me if there is any article where it explain the methodology or from with book you found it? Thank you for the help

[@ayabouain1291]

Hey can I use this model to forecast exchange rates over 2 years or more? Thank you for the great content!

[@UwaishHusain]

This what I needed. Great explanation. Thanks a lot

[@talebbagazi1435]

Can you please make a video on how to use the column chart, pie chart, and doughnut cart in a perfect professional method?

[@acekinkaid]

Great video. Pro tip: Set the playback speed to 1.5 😉

[@Damodar.Shetty]

Video really helped me very much thanks a ton can you help me with the predictions for hourly in a day

[@ojicletus5066]

Hi Jaylayer academy I want to thank U a lot for vedio on time series in excel, is very helpful and more simpler to understand. Thanks for the great work. One more thing, do you also have vedio on ARIMA model with excel

[@deepaknarasimham3927]

Hi what version of Excel are you using? If I want to use the same for Excel for Mac please let me know which one to download

[@DarraghMurray]

Have you done any videos for the additive (rather than multiplicative) method?

[@roryboytube]

Interestingly if you use a simple average growth extrapolation method you arrive at identical forecasts in under 5 minutes without carrying out all this detail. I'm not sure if that's just a special case with this example but its kind of disconcerting that maybe a lot of this detail is not necessarily getting you a more accurate forecast compared to a simple rule of thumb method?

[@arielspalter7425]

Extremely helpful! Thank you very much.

[@arijitkumar4763]

Explained with such simplicity and clarity,, Kudos :)

[@lelice01]

does this work for purely anual data?

[@aboodshiru]

I built forecasting models based on this video.... THANK YOU SO MUCH

[@liambrochu740]

Which forecasting technique would this be? Would it just be considered moving average?

[@amitchakraborty5997]

Thank you very much. this is exactly the solution to the problem i was facing. Thanks for the step by step instructions.

[@LORENZOMAGTOTO]

Thanks for a great class!

[@leanaphillip8200]

awesome lesson! is there any way to include other variables such like economic factors like employment rates ?

[@VarayaT]

Awesome tutorial. Which method of time series forecasting are you using?

[@viksabharwal2811]

Very well explained in a methodical fashion. How do i do a weekly forecast for upcoming years with historical weekly data available for previous 2 years?

[@eidilehzan2292]

Great video!! However may i know what method would this be called?

[@kitchendocumentary]

Absolute Life Saver.... thank you.

[@milajones7621]

hi there, thank you for your video. isn't there a forward looking bias to the way you seasonalize the data? In taking MA (4), shouldn't we take the 4th quarter data point form the year prior? thanks again!

[@StockSpotlightPodcast]

BINGO!

[@rdjalayer]

thanks for watching, and for the comment

[@ryedc8674]

What type of model is this?

[@1minuteeconomics]

If in one year dip is more compared to other years what to do in that case.

[@EUNJOOHONG-o7j]

Thank you for your class!

[@situmecrois]

J'adore votre vidéo! Merci beaucoup Monsieur Jalayer :) It really helps me

[@chdarmaster]

Nice presentation! if you have data of 2 years (like the above -car sales)is it accurate to make a precision for 5 months later? thank you

[@guganbabu7929]

Can u please tell me how to predict the month wise data using method. Can u please explain it by an example.....

[@priyankamukim1070]

How to do this for yearly data? And will there be CMA in yearly data where MA taken is for 2 years?

[@davidsanderson7948]

Love the explanation of the center moving average and the calculation to correct it for even numbers. I personally think you'd have done better in a real world scenario to just drop down to 3 for the moving average to plot a longer line.

[@saiphanitheja4303]

May I know the theory and formulae behind this example. I mean what should I search for to get the theory

[@badboyambrose]

this is just awesome!!! helped me a lot in my work!!!

[@mohitmayoor8052]

Sir. I am not getting this in your playlist. In which section have u added it. Plz let me know sir

[@shraddhadeshmukh9824]

I have daily interest rates data of the past 2 years. I want to forecast the daily interest rates for the next 1 year. I don't see any definite trend or seasonality, Can it still be forecasted? Also, what should be my moving average period?

[@xinqian8885]

Many thanks for your video! It's very clear and easy to understand! Can I ask you a question? There are a few missing in my time series data. Is there any possible that I can still analyse my data?

[@berkanatas5515]

thx for the help. I have missed one thing that why have we started from the 3. cell when taking moving average?

[@WindaKim]

yes, why start from 3? @jalayer

[@myvinyljourney7908]

Can this be used for monthly data for 2-3 years. In that case how should the moving average and the CMA being done. I mean should it be 3 months or 4 months etc.

[@kiniviral1258]

Hello sir,can i know what method it is?? for example moving average,or exponential or ARIMA ..cause i want to find article about this kind of forcast..tq sory for disturb you

[@tanya.devangi]

Hello I just wanted to know how I should address the above if I have monthly data of last 2 yrs instead of quarterly.. plz help

[@DripLocal]

I am in the process of forecasting retail sales data. If I take a moving average and plot a trend line (against the original sales data) that still has outliers, does this mean I need to increase the MA periods that I am using?

[@rdjalayer]

glad I could help, thanks for your awesome comment

[@Arriyad1]

Instead of computing the CMA, would it be feasible to regress instead?

[@almightydemons1]

Hello, thank you for this amazing video. I have a question: *What if we had 3 years of monthly sales data, and we needed to do a monthly forecast for next 12 months? How would you have approached calculating MA & CMA?*

[@SugolItaly]

thank you and I have one question. in this example if we want to sum of sales for each year, how we can do that in excel? I mean for example for yaer 1 and ...