Excel - Time Series Forecasting - Part 1 of 3

Part 2: • Excel - Time Series Fo...
Part 3: • Excel - Time Series Fo...
This is Part 1 of a 3 part "Time Series Forecasting in Excel" video lecture. Be sure to watch Parts 2 and 3 upon completing Part 1. The links for 2 and 3 are in the video as well as above.
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[@clivebuhagiar7326]

This series of 3 is fantastic! Thanks so much. It's really straightforward to follow and does exactly what I need.

[@TimothyChenAllen]

Terrific! I just used the technique from these three videos on a real-world 4-year dataset related to Natural Disasters. The forecast was excellent; I compared the 5th year forecast versus a partial set of actual data from the 5th year, and it fit very nicely! Your explanation was very clear. Thank you so much for sharing this.

[@tansutazegul8297]

It has been almost 7 years since I graduated MBA classes, you know what, I desperately needed the time series forecasting which I learned back then. Thats exactly what I needed . I have recalled everything thanks to you. The explanation is easy to understand, and very clear.

[@fitfirst4468]

Tansu "the bum with bad memory" Tazegul

[@raheem201231]

6 years later, still helpful

[@rajnajat]

I disagree with Mr Ivan...... Whatever repetitions you have done not only clarified the subject more, but it also did a bit of revision. One should think about people who are totally alien to the subject , and not about those who know too much ABOUT THE SUBJECT ! I am compelled to say that that the author and commentator of this video is one of the greatest teachers EVER ! ( this is my first video for him, but I am a physician and I know how to evaluate something ! Congratulations to the Jalayer Academy and thanks for being kind to spend your time and money for the common and downtrodden man !

[@mohamednazaralali4441]

Dear Jalayer, I would like to thank you for these productive videos. It exactly step by step which I benefit a lot and I appreciate your patience in doing the video, please keep up the great work.

[@hessamharandi7954]

You have the knowledge and know how to teach. Great job and thanks a lot!

[@ajayv304]

Searching for this content from last five years. Thanks a lot.

[@Inquire98]

"Thank GOD 🙏🏾", and thank you very much for sharing your support and time 😉 That was REALLY Really really good 👍🏿 Long, but good...

[@dudefromsa]

The theory is sharp and precise and the examples are simply to the point. This 3 part video is easy to understand and practise. Highly recommend this time series tutorial

[@situmecrois]

J'adore votre vidéo! Merci beaucoup Monsieur Jalayer :) It really helps me

[@tbangera]

Awesome, one of the best explanation on Time Series using Excel, you made it look so simple...

[@brandfit4927]

Thank you for breaking this down. VERY helpful.

[@santiagoespinbasany5028]

I learned more with this three videos than with a bunch of books. Thank you very much!

[@joanbadellgiralt3489]

Very good patates amb suc!!!

[@badboyambrose]

this is just awesome!!! helped me a lot in my work!!!

[@joebrowning7899]

Awesome job, you saved me a lot of headaches! Thanks so much! You the man!

[@williamxu2402]

Thank you for the videos! They are really useful!

[@nikhilnayan6003]

Thankyou for the video. Really helped me to clear my understanding of time series forecasting.

[@ibrahimozturk6147]

Great video series. I have learned and applied in bussiness. I am looking forward to see the R version of the series.

[@Rahulraj1093]

It was very helpful.....I gone through all 3 videos. Very well explained Thanks you so much

[@dhananjaykansal8097]

Just wanna say. May God Bless You! Amen!

[@arif28may]

It is extremely illustrative and helpful. Thank you very much

[@chiomaodimegwu2091]

you're awesome at breaking things down and explaining. Thank you!

[@arijitkumar4763]

Explained with such simplicity and clarity,, Kudos :)

[@rdjalayer]

missing data is quite a challenging problem to have sometimes, there is a whole field of inquiry into how to handle this, you may have to look into missing data in time series, thanks for watching

[@ROCKONNORG]

Excellent! Made a very complicated subject easy to understand

[@terrymchale1605]

You saved me bruh! I was struggling with no idea now i can copy paste this, Lifesaver

[@amitchakraborty5997]

Thank you very much. this is exactly the solution to the problem i was facing. Thanks for the step by step instructions.

[@flipflip3271]

Excellent job describing how yo perform a time series analysis. A lot of views but not a lot of subscribers. Support this channel!

[@rdjalayer]

thanks for watching, and for the comment

[@engineeringhacks7978]

Excellent tutorial, I am power Engineer and i have learned nice skills here... Bravo, get us more...

[@kailashmehta7568]

Great video ! cover fundamental of forecasting . How to manage forecasting in excel , especially if products or sku is more than 5000.

[@armandohernandez1879]

Thanks you safe my life brother!

[@mauriceligulu6782]

Thank you very much sir, your videos are thorough with proper explanations

[@garymcnair2073]

Thank you so much for saving me. I have been struggling with this for a few weeks and this assignment is due on Monday. Until I found your video, I had no clue on how to do my assignment and I am grateful that you took time out to post this because I'm hoping that I can use your example to follow to do my assignment and pass my class. Forever thankful :).

[@arielspalter7425]

Extremely helpful! Thank you very much.

[@avinashrdy]

Great video. Could you also explain the Holt's winter multiplicative model in forecasting using excel? Also, some of the statistics like MAPE using excel?

[@mohitmayoor8052]

Awesome one. Made it completely clear. Thanks a lot sir

[@rdjalayer]

glad I could help, thanks for your awesome comment

[@leanaphillip8200]

awesome lesson! is there any way to include other variables such like economic factors like employment rates ?

[@rdjalayer]

many thanks to you for the comment

[@satishb9975]

Thank you i learnt so much from the videos. I really don't know liked the teaching, tone and the pace is so good to understand easy in details explained you are a great teacher and a gift to the students 👌😀

[@acekinkaid]

Great video. Pro tip: Set the playback speed to 1.5 😉

[@aboodshiru]

I built forecasting models based on this video.... THANK YOU SO MUCH

[@melsxxx1]

Really great! I got it 1st time...thank you

[@Vercingetorix061983]

Nice work, dude!

[@muhammadnazri1888]

Hi Sir, I've similar inquiry as karadic; why the first value of MA(4) been placed at the 3rd quarter instead of 4th quarter?

[@jamesperry3837]

Thanks. Thats a great! and valuable tutorial.

[@sgteamx]

Thanks for the video! What types of forecasting is this, and why was it chosen compared to say, exponential smoothing / ARMA / Weighted moving average?

[@basilchukwukelueokoye1219]

Thanks for this explanatory video.

[@yaseradventures]

Thank you for the great Videos....

[@laIlI129]

Great explanation. Thanks.

[@UwaishHusain]

This what I needed. Great explanation. Thanks a lot

[@ANTHONYSALAZARLPZ]

thanks for you tutorial jalayer, i just want to know if that example makes up all the ARIMA process thanks again

[@taylorgray3969]

Great videos for data analysis!

[@Flylikea]

Thanks, I was looking for an excel version of time series.

[@HnuyZer]

Thanks A lot. now i can do my test !

[@kanzakicyn]

10 years later, using this for my assignment. Thank you

[@almightydemons1]

Hello, thank you for this amazing video. I have a question: *What if we had 3 years of monthly sales data, and we needed to do a monthly forecast for next 12 months? How would you have approached calculating MA & CMA?*

[@rdjalayer]

Sorry, I have not made the Excel file available, you can pause and get the data, on HD setting hopefully, thanks for the comment

[@rezaulislam3885]

I did use the technique to forecast the rice of rice and gas over 20 years back data and get good result.

[@presncubez]

May you also highlight on how you will use excel to outline the general hyperbolic function followed by the prediction or the forecast line. (e.g it can be Yt = aXt^2 -bXt + c.

[@MsSmilecandy]

Awesome, thank you so much! You make practicing for exams and doing assignments a breeze :)

[@rdjalayer]

glad this was helpful, a breeze

[@LuckUzumaki]

This helped me a lot, i will be using it my final paper. Could you please tell me if there is any article where it explain the methodology or from with book you found it? Thank you for the help

[@Damodar.Shetty]

Video really helped me very much thanks a ton can you help me with the predictions for hourly in a day

[@emmanuelkwarirandunda7592]

Great video. Thank you

[@TravellingKitz]

Great information my friend.

[@user-gj5dw4kc2h]

It is very useful, thankyou ,look forward to your next vedio

[@viksabharwal2811]

Very well explained in a methodical fashion. How do i do a weekly forecast for upcoming years with historical weekly data available for previous 2 years?

[@vargheseabraham5551]

Thanks and have a blessed day...

[@easliman]

This was awesome! Thanks so much for the video!!!

[@DarraghMurray]

Have you done any videos for the additive (rather than multiplicative) method?

[@adelsakkir6183]

Excellent video!

[@marlourentucan9023]

perfect tutorial !

[@moodforfood22]

Awesome tutorial. Which method of time series forecasting are you using?

[@narendrarana]

Great set of videos on time series. Question : Are all time series based on a multiplicative model? If no, then how did you determine that a multiplicative model would fit this data. Also, why did we not try to isolate the irregularity, why just stop at trend and seasonality. Final question, why can't we use the cma value as trend, does that not indicate a trend? thank you once again

[@anthonyfernandezgonzalez8262]

Completed, thank you.

[@raoufzanati7532]

thank you sir, your explanations are on point

[@talebbagazi1435]

Can you please make a video on how to use the column chart, pie chart, and doughnut cart in a perfect professional method?

[@user-dj3rl3uz5k]

Thanks for posting this tutorial. Very helpful. Can this time series forecasting method be used for budgeting as well? Instead of revenue, take expenses and create a expense forecasting, meaning budgeting? If not, please advise what function is used. Thanks a lot!

[@ojicletus5066]

Hi Jaylayer academy I want to thank U a lot for vedio on time series in excel, is very helpful and more simpler to understand. Thanks for the great work. One more thing, do you also have vedio on ARIMA model with excel

[@datascientistoflife8550]

Excellent man...

[@orshtibelman8540]

great tutorial. please can you make us video about calculating AUC + JINI coefficient. tnx allot..

[@davidsanderson7948]

Love the explanation of the center moving average and the calculation to correct it for even numbers. I personally think you'd have done better in a real world scenario to just drop down to 3 for the moving average to plot a longer line.

[@chaitaliautade1341]

This is valuable..thank you so much!

[@rdjalayer]

sorry Sameer, I can't answer these questions in this forum, I would say that if you notice no pattern in the data as far as seasonality than you may have no seasonal factor

[@himanshusindhu6505]

Thank you so much for this! 💯

[@Jollyjoky]

That is an excellent video! If i want to work with 24 months, should i use MA4 and CMA(4) or use another amount in the average? Thanks in advance!

[@tolaniakintonde2955]

Thank you so much, video was very helpful

[@mohsenhashemi2548]

You saved a mystery for me thankkkkkks

[@chdarmaster]

Nice presentation! if you have data of 2 years (like the above -car sales)is it accurate to make a precision for 5 months later? thank you

[@user-lm8rv7vk8e]

U can check ARIMA, a very powerful method to do this

[@valeryhero8]

you're a life saver

[@NavjotSinghpatiala]

excellent explaining

[@xinqian8885]

Many thanks for your video! It's very clear and easy to understand! Can I ask you a question? There are a few missing in my time series data. Is there any possible that I can still analyse my data?

[@airswitch162]

Very clear. Thank you. I cannot understand my professor at all. Also his examples are terrible and unclear.

[@roryboytube]

Interestingly if you use a simple average growth extrapolation method you arrive at identical forecasts in under 5 minutes without carrying out all this detail. I'm not sure if that's just a special case with this example but its kind of disconcerting that maybe a lot of this detail is not necessarily getting you a more accurate forecast compared to a simple rule of thumb method?

[@Aykeikei]

@11:00 why do you take the MVA of 4 quarters and put it in the 3rd quarter location? so you have 2 from the past, 1 current, and the 1 of the future.

[@99imelda]

Did you get an answer to this ?

[@evob20]

I also would like to know why he did this

[@dioneharringtonthedionsaur]

@@evob20 at the end of the day it doesn't matter where he places it, it was just to show the average of all four within that quarter. He said it should really be in the middle but the next best visual idea was to put it in the 3rd cell going down. To clarify, the average is all four added together and divided by 4.

[@dovendriet7739]

When we use odd no moving average say 3. We need to take the moving average only for 1time that means if we take three quarter moving average of 1,2 and 3 the answer which we get by averaging them needs to be place in the centre that is 2 . But in case of even moving average say 4(1,2,3&4) the centre is 2.5 and the centre for the next observation (2,3,4,5) is 3.5 , that's why we need to do moving average again for 1time by taking the value which we get in 2.5 and 3.5 .Now the centre of 2.5 and 3.5 is 3. Hopes this satisfy you

[@tyronewalker5764]

Well done sir, and without the voodoo!😀

[@abdulelahhussien6925]

thanks for you this explain is very good and very clear