Rebuild or Merger...Which is More Lucrative for PAC 2?

In this video, we delve into the financial intricacies facing the PAC-2 conference and explore why a merger with the Mountain West Conference could be a more lucrative option than attempting to rebuild the PAC from scratch. Let us know your thoughts in the comments!! Rebuild or Merge?
#CollegeFootball #PAC2 #Realignment
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[@jeh58]

A truly premiere G5 conference could get a pretty good media deal the would be a lot better than the other G5 conferences. Adding the teams that are always at the bottom of the conference would water down the media payouts to their fellow conference members. Maybe they wouldn't get their top team to the CFP every year but would still have the better media payouts over their counterparts.

[@DuJoLe]

Fantastic points, Its so much fun making these fantasy conferences that we often blind ourselves to logic. I still think a G5 super conference can eventually form if the money is right, but who wants to buy the rights to the New Pac and how much are they willing to buy it for? Without answers to these questions its looking like the only financially responsible move is a reverse merger. Though I would also be interested in what the comparative cost of bringing in AAC or Sun Belt schools that are somewhat western to fill certain slots or maybe be used as leverage over certain MWC schools to make them pay their way out or get left behind.

[@atgdcommish608]

Taking the MWC TV deal is financially irresponsible.

[@ranger135]

Great Deep dive Trey, your analysis is sound. A rebuilt PAC would be great but very costly. A Super G5 would garner greater media attention. But not enough to keep up with the P4. A reverse merger with the MW just might be the way to go this way the Beaves and Cougs keep the majority of the war chest there going to need it . A P4 invite is fading fast. The implosion of the ACC won't help. the P4 is deffeantly trying to pull away as reported it yesterday by Dellenger, the P4 and Baker had separate meets on governance keeping the other 28 commissioners at bay, the devision in college football is well on its way. It truly sucks.

[@carylee2002]

That's the problem when you have a strong G5 conference that plays a lot harder SOS vs the lower conferences. The CFP needs to include SOS into their equation when doing rankings. Otherwise the MW will just play FCS schools for all their non conference schedules and eliminate P4 games on their schedule. As for OSU and WSU...full reverse merger in two years is the way to go to keep the money because cash is always king. Forget paying penalties to get out of a existing conference to chase a carrot with no reward. Ask SDSU when they tried and ending up crawling back.

[@MattBuild4]

Nah, sos is sus af as a metric. Look up the 2023 schedules of Boise State vs SMU last season. If you look up SOS on ESPN - according to this nonsense stat apparently these two teams played nearly identical schedules..... One problem tho. Boise State's opponents won 28 MORE GAMES than SMU's opponents - I mean wtf - how is SMU 81 and BSU is 82? Its not even close... Theres also a history of SOS metrics not making any sense, plus there is literally published literature talking how complete garbage SOS is as mathematical metric in sports.

[@onlinepole]

Dude, your research 🧐 & numbers are spot on 💯🙌. You also made cogent points about why having the deepest g5 football 🏈 conference in terms of talent may not be in the best interest of OSU & WSU. MWC is not likely to vote to dissolve unless they get ironclad assurance from the PAC 2 that they’ll all be accepted in the New PAC 12. Prefacing my next comment that I’m an NIU Huskie fan, here are the reasons why NIU would be a fit: 1) played in a recent NY 6 bowl ( orange 🍊) vs FSU 2) Easy flight access into both Chicago O’Hare & Rockford Airports 3) in last 10 years NIU has defeated Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue & MN 4) NIU has also beaten 2 ACC teams on the road the past 3 years. 5) in addition to an on campus stadium 🏟️, NIU has relationships with the City of Chicago and Chicago White Sox. NIU has played at Soldier Field (63K, Bears 🐻) & Guaranteed Rate Field(45k). 6) NIU has a nominal exit fee from the MAC. 7) Adding NIU would give the PAC 2 the ability to consider adding FCS powerhouses SD St, South Dakota, ND St & North Dakota. All of those except SD St have indoor football 🏈 stadiums. SD St & ND St have played in the title game or won FCS championships most seasons over the past 10 years Am not aware of any exit fees for the Mo Valley Football Conference. 8) those additions would give the PAC 2 a total of 7 members. If wanting a 12 team conference, only need to add 5 MWC members who make the best fit. Don’t see Hawaii, SJ St., Wyoming (small state population) UNLV (LV now has the raiders) as being great fits. Would PAC 12 need 2 programs in greater Denver? I wouldn’t think so. Having some Midwestern based programs in PAC 12 could bring it something it has lacked in the past, fans outside of just 1 geographic region. Food for thought

[@tahuyachris]

Washington, Washington State, and Arizona have long been my 3 favorite college football teams. Now that they are in 3 different leagues, there is a better chance they could be 3 of the final four teams in the playoff. I really hope the PAC can rebuild to be a strong mid-major conference!!!!

[@Mike-aka747]

The best of the MW with the best of the AAC. MWC has more appealing teams now than AAC so 6 from MWC, 4 from AAC and OSU and WSU. PAC East Memphis USF Air Force CSU UTSA Tulane PAC West WSU OSU Fresno State SDSU UNLV Boise State

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

I wonder what type of media deal this would command And those AAC teams would likely have an exit fee north of $17M for late notice

[@Mike-aka747]

@@CollegeUnderdogs probably a far fetched idea. I know the big 12 won’t even consider more AAC teams. They’re going to get about 4-6 leftover ACC program s when they implode. The only program maybe I could see them taking is Memphis for some rivalries purposes w/Louisville or WVU or Pitt or Cincy. If common sense were to prevail then Stanford and Cal would help WSU and OSU revamp the PAC 12. I think SMU would die to inclusion in the big 12 but they’re not wanted apparently. How about this one. Just wsu and OSU w/ the 2 former members and SMU and the best of the MWC. PAC East SMU AFA UTSA Boise CSU UNLV PAC west OSU WSU Cal Stanford SDSU FSU The problem is those 2 schools in the Bay Area think they’re too good for this. But what good does it do them to be in a very very much lesser ACC if they poach a bunch of AAC schools even. That conference will look like G5 no matter what

[@Mike-aka747]

Or do we replace Wyoming with UTSA? even though I think ACC would make a big pull for them. Would make for a great rival w/SMU. Ok I’m doing this replacing Wyoming 🤔w/UTSA

[@michaelwall3393]

@@Mike-aka747okay first of all I don’t think, or based off who is in each G5 conference, that the MWC has better teams or more intriguing teams or better brands than AAC or SBC. The MWC is not the best G5. That distinction of the past two years in regular season play belongs to SBC with AAC not too far behind. I also don’t see any school East of the Rockies taking any crazy chances on something that could never happen or work or be beneficial in the long run or short run. I don’t see any of this happening unless there are significant changes in financial gains and revenue growth and development countered to what the schools currently have. By the way even if you built the best of rest G5 conference, news flash, somebody has to lose as not everybody can win or have a winning record regularly and will lose in non conference games and in other sports and thus back to having bottom feeders and top heavy teams all over again. Then there are the expenses in travel costs and training costs increased and scouting costs increased and so on that schools in AAC and SBC would realize this was a horrible decision to make and should not have left for this makeshift conference in the new PAC and MWC teams feeling the same way about going East regularly for multiple sports and multiple different types of recruitment and so on.

[@roryvance3694]

@@Mike-aka747 I would say thats a tough choice between the schools. Performance , as of right now, they are about the same. If we look at media market, UTSA wins over Wyoming. If we look back at national viewership per game, Wyoming wins. if we look at attendance , back to UTSA. So its not clear cut.

[@stevencochran]

Good analysis Trey. Keep up the good work. There are ingredients out there for a future for college football that isn’t just living in the shadow of the BIG and SEC and their bloated vision. But creativity and vision is required. Out of the box perspectives needed! Keep bringing it Trey!

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Thank you, Steven! I appreciate you 🤝💯

[@CharlesFosterMalloy]

I absolutely think you're onto something here. It needs to happen. It's going to happen. When the semi pros go their own way the punlic will lose interest and the rest of amateur College football become College Football aa we've always known it and loved it.

[@Alohanate2004]

Everything you said makes perfect sense. I am so tired of other shows that keep talking about "best of the rest". OSU has debt from their stadium remodel. WSU has been running a deficit for years. Hard to believe their respective board of regents would be ok with them spending their "warchest" on a rebuild when they could merge for free. And for what? A 14 team reverse merger would get maybe $8-$10 million per school? A best of the rest would get how much more? Maybe $12-14 million? Why spend $100 million dollars to earn $4 million more per year?

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Thank you for watching! I was on the “best of the rest” train until I took a closer look at the numbers

[@billl1127]

Most of your comments are myopic, but I'm willing to agree with you on this one.

[@jeh58]

OSU has thee revamp paid for, but WSU is in debt for theirs.

[@stevedonnie4077]

OSU’s stadium debt is already planned out over decades, it’s not an issue. And poaching 6 MW schools wouldn’t even require half of the war chest. Of course merging with the ACC/Big12 is the #1 goal for the Pac, but a “best of the rest” conference is the best option for both media value and playoff access on the G5 level imo.

[@jeh58]

@@stevedonnie4077 For the MWC schools the buy out for just 6 schools is 67.5 million, plus 5.5 million per school exit fees. They will want the PAC to cover that as well, so the is 100.5 million for six schools. Not only that there is also a departure penalty of 17 million dollars for a one year notice & 34 million for a two year notice. A one year notice will be due this June 30th (3 days from now), and a two year notice on 30 June 2025. So the totals to purchase six schools will be: one year notice=202.5 million, three year notice=304.5 million. Plus the pac has other bill that will come due as well as annual operation fees. Still think this path is affordable?

[@crab1]

I would say that if it were only about the CFP auto-bid then yeah a Best of the Rest conference doesn’t make a lot of sense, but that conference would get higher tv revenues then any existing G5 conference, and other revenue opportunities that could have a much better ROI over a 10 year period than just joining the existing MWC. A small conference of just the premier G5 programs will also not have to share TV revenue amongst 12-14 schools, meaning a higher payout for them with the added ability of adding premier programs in the future (Stanford, Cal, SMU, Memphis, Tulane)

[@michaelwall3393]

Stanford, Cal, Tulane and maybe SMU as well are not joining a conference with Boise State and Fresno State in it. They are not the only schools that would not join either. I don’t think any AAC schools or SBC schools would risk a dangerous miscalculation in this situation and join a makeshift make believe conference with maybes and could-be’s and so on.

[@CharlesFosterMalloy]

Reverse Merger is the way to start. There are only a few marginal programs in the MW and even they have value. The historical under-performers in the MW did well last season which bodes well for the merger. UNLV SJSU Wyoming Airforce All did well in 2023. In fact, I would look at adding Montana, South Dakota State, South Dakota, North Dakota State, and Northern Arizona as well. Maybe North Dakota. The latter are among the very best FCS programs and some are joining FBS soon anyway. Look at that conference geographically. Add a few of the best AAC programs and you have a great conference: Tulane UT-SA Rice UNT Texas State Tulsa Memphis La Tech New Mexico State

[@CharlesFosterMalloy]

Look at how well James Madison & Liberty have done since joining FBS. Those top FCS programs are golden, and they fill out the empty spaces on your footprint map.

[@PATRIOT904]

Thank you for talking OSU and WSU. Terrible what happened to them.

[@onlinepole]

Glad they at least were able to take the bull 🐂 by the horns and keep all the hoops 🏀 money 💵

[@kingbaldwiniv5409]

Good point. I think that a new media deal negotiation however requires ratings and markets. This comes from controlling more exclusive rights, not fewer. I see an 8 team league as putting out to sea in a row boat. They need to command a certain displacement for their ship to stay afloat in the NIL world. They will also need a conference recruiting footprint in certain recruiting hotbead states like CA. The PAC Pair need SDSU, Fresno for both recruiting and links to other media markets that matter. Southern CA, Central CA, CO, and whoever they can get in population verve is important. I like the merger, improve your programs with the warchest, and concentrate on putting out a compelling product. That is what media negotiations are about.

[@songbird9893]

If I were the PAC 2 I would reverse merge and create an endowment and live within my means. They will forever be ahead in revenue of the incoming members.

[@CoachMikejvGahr]

I am so excited about this channel. I am a new subscriber and love the content. Even though I am I'm LA keep it going!!

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Welcome to the channel! We’re coast to coast…glad you’re here 🤝💯

[@Knightowl1980]

As a ucf fan This would have been great years ago. I might check in every now and then

[@Mike-aka747]

Honestly WsU and OsU would be better off in the BiG12. Utah would be happier, for sure. And the better half of the old PAC conference would be together. I think the fans at OSU and WSU would Feel better about their chances at Competing at a higher level. A big L on Big 12’s part. IMHO. Ahh well.

[@user-bv8rv1vt7k]

IF the Big12 wanted WSU/OSU they would have invited them. They didn't and simply that ship has sailed.

[@Mike-aka747]

could be a mistake on B12’s part

[@user-bv8rv1vt7k]

@@Mike-aka747 Honestly, I think the failure was the PAC12 being too arrogant when they could have Merged with the remnants of the Big12 after the Texas/Oklahoma departure when those schools were begging to join. This would have created an amazing and competitive conference, BUT hubris and arrogance on part of the PAC12 (and very much USC's fault) caused the situation that OSU/WSU are in now. I have to say this is the biggest dose of Karma given out and OSU/WSU are suffering for it.

[@CharlesFosterMalloy]

The only MW programs you would consider excluding are: Nevada-Reno New Mexico Wyoming For me, it's just Reno, and why not add them anyway. I would add New Mexico State in addition to NM.

[@judethaddaeus9742]

SJSU spends less than $30m a year on athletics. OSU spends triple that.

[@chrisanderson2957]

I could see a possible scenario where OSU and Wsu wind up P4. Let's assume FSU and Clemson leave for the P2. Then the other ACC members vote to disband the ACC thus avoiding exit/ MR fees. The ACC schools that fail to find a P2 home - BC, Sry, WF , plus let's say two more from GT, NCS, Duke, Virginia,VT, Pitt, Louisville . 5 of these schools plus Sanford, Cal. And Smu would give you a 10 team conference with 5 East Division and 5 West Division. They could then negotiate a TV deal that couldn't be any worse then what they have now.

[@thatcollegefootballguy]

I watched this video when it first came out and I forgot to put a comment in then so I apologize. And unfortunately, some of your data is a bit old and inaccurate. But regardless of that, the best option in terms of the Pac-12's financial future is to absorb the Mountain West under the Pac-12 umbrella. I would suggest adding UTSA and North Texas to get shares of the San Antonio and Dallas metroplex markets. And try to grab Gonzaga to help out the conference since Hawaii is a football only member. You minimize travel for your athletes. Why spend tons of money to bring in other schools into this conference when there is a strong possibility you could be in a power conference around 2031? Spend the money on yourselves and put yourself in great position for a future power conference invite.

[@aBrewster29]

Reverse merger is the way to go. Bring everyone along but negotiate merit-based revenue, low exit fees for a power conference invite, and minimum commitment benchmarks.

[@marcpena266]

Reverse merger and bring in some other desirable schools like Tulane & Memphis. Then split the league in two and allow for a relegation match to boost viewership.

[@stevedonnie4077]

As an OrSt fan I completely disagree. Merging with the MW offers no benefit to the PAC compared to poaching schools and trying to build the best G5 conference. Even if they can’t get AAC schools, poaching the majority of the MW’s value by taking 6 schools right as they’re negotiating a media deal is much more lucrative than splitting a MW media deal 14 ways.

[@aBrewster29]

@@stevedonnie4077 that’s the way to go if you’re trying to build the strongest league, but I think that’s secondary to finances. The G5s are tragically undervalued compared to their on-field product, and it’s going to cost a ton in exit fees to cherry pick individual schools. LockedOnCF was reporting about $10MM+ per school. Also, keep in mind OSU and WSU still want back into the power leagues. Do you honestly believe individual MW schools are going to ditch that league for OSU/WSU without a grant of rights? I don’t. Why would you pay tens of millions of dollars to kick out San Jose St and New Mexico when you can simply negotiate terms that obligate them to up their game and make an ongoing commitment or else they can then be booted out for cause?

[@devinmathews7809]

Interesting to think of. As a premier G5 conference we would still share access with Sun Belt and AAC. But also we're separating our own conference from them. 12 team playoff give the premier G5 one spot but no at large.

[@jeh58]

For the MWC schools the buy out for just 6 schools is 67.5 million, plus 5.5 million per school exit fees. They will want the PAC to cover that as well, so the is 100.5 million for six schools. Not only that there is also a departure penalty of 17 million dollars for a one year notice & 34 million for a two year notice. A one year notice will be due this June 30th (3 days from now), and a two year notice on 30 June 2025. So the totals to purchase six schools will be: one year notice=202.5 million, three year notice=304.5 million. Plus the PAC has other bill that will come due as well as annual operation fees. Does anyone still think this path is affordable?

[@Alohanate2004]

For the MW I believe it's $17 million for 1 year notice and $34 million for less than one year notice. That's what I remember from the San Diego State to the PAC 12 drama last year. So MW schools would have to give notice by June 30, 2025 and have that final year of revenue distribution withheld from them. But yeah, spot on observation. I just don't see the return on investment spending $100 million to get a TV deal worth maybe $12 million per year per school.

[@jeh58]

@@Alohanate2004 My bad,

[@Knightowl1980]

The PAC, ACC, MW and AAC are all dumb to not fold and merge. Especially years ago when the MW and AAC should have merged years ago and they led be prime position to be the 4th best conference and equal with with a broken ACC conference.

[@CarlaJenkinsTV]

The reverse merger has always been my preferred option. Here's why: you keep the money and regain autonomous status. This autonomous status would give the conference winner an automatic playoff bid. The autonomous status would also be protection against the $20 million+ House settlement that is coming down the pike. Best believe when everything hits the fan, the Power 4 will be insulated; whereas the G5 will not.

[@Spitfirethedragon]

There is something that people missed at this point. The best of the rest out of the G5 would be more of a power conferences. We know two schools that are being giving money for their football. Boise State and Memphis. Boise State has the Albertsons grocery store chain nationally, and the chain was founded in Boise, Idaho. Since Albertsons and Krogers merged? Boise State and Louisville is now big brother and little brother by that connection. Memphis is funded by FedEx. If other corporations started to help fund MWC, AAC, SBC and MAC schools? We could see the corporations stepping in for naming rights and all that with NILs. They could build a 5th P5 league with the best schools and help pay for sponsorship of college football games. The idea is coming that a split is going to happen, and the gap between several of the G5 schools are widening from the other G5 schools. Never count out the west coast to pull out a miracle and lands a Louisville and a Pittsburgh as well. There are several G5 schools who are strong Power conference schools but no invites. USF, Rice, Tulane and UConn were also power conference schools as well.

[@billl1127]

If it takes 9 votes to dissolve the MW, then the incentive to the 3 teams voting themselves into oblivion would be to pay them off. Remember a dissolved MW would eliminate the $100M in withdrawal and termination fees, so pay off the other 3 or 6 schools left behind. You then get your rebuilt Pac-8 at a price substantially lower than a hostile take-over.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Interesting point…that would have to be a hefty payoff and I would think a landing spot would have to be in order

[@Alohanate2004]

Not a legal expert but that sounds like a bribe, which is illegal. Plus, why take a payoff when the 6 schools left behind can vote not to dissolve and get $100 million in termination fees?

[@HMbeav8404]

Everything else (acc, power 2 further consolidation) feels somewhat predictable. It’s anybody’s guess what happens with my beloved pac 2.

[@colinfletcher7520]

Boise Fresno Air Force Wyoming and San Diego state would be a dog in a power conference. Especially Fresno and Boise.

[@CCOS1214]

Pac 2's best bet is that the acc implodes big ten and sec grab what they want.. big 12 grabs 3rd tier teams.. lesser acc teams could combine with bedt of aac, sun belt and c usa.. the texas schools utsa and smu could join the western side with the pac 2 and mt west teams

[@rayrayrivers6135]

Please leave the Sunbelt and CUSA out of the discussions. No team in the CUSA or the Sunbelt has the overall status to be considered in the long run. Oh there are a couple of teams with a couple of good recent years. But none of them have the budget or national following to be taken seriously. Stop with the Sunbelt and CUSA crap.

[@BilltheTulaneGuy]

🌊🌊🌊 The AAC is the preeminent G5 conference. #RollWave

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

I would take the top tier of the AAC over anyone else’s

[@BilltheTulaneGuy]

@@CollegeUnderdogs Tulane had great retention post-Coach Fritz combined with solid recruiting and what could turn out to be a top 10 transfer portal haul for Coach Jon Sumrall. #TCB

[@andrewluke1582]

The Sunbelt overall is a better football conference. The only merger I'd humor would be pac/mw with american and Sunbelt. We can dream can't we😂?

[@michaelwall3393]

@@CollegeUnderdogsI would say the top of the SBC and the entire SBC are unfortunately better than all the other G5 schools at the moment. The AAC can regain the status as best of the Non-Autonomous schools but they have to have more bowl eligibility schools, have to win more non conference games against fellow G5, have to be at or above.500 record in bowl games played, must have four or more teams with 10 or more wins going into conference championship week to show depth at the top, must have 10 of 14 schools bowling year in and year out, no one with less than 4-5 wins preferably no less than 5, and multiple NCAA bids in all Olympic sports with 4-8 teams getting selected respectively in correlating sports. Because the AAC had a 5-7 year run of doing something like this before all these seismic shifts and changes, they can do so again. They also need to quit doing in-fighting and stop blocking progress due to own selfish interests.

[@jeh58]

In what Jan 1 games has the SBC been in? Boise has 3, Tulane has one. The other one for the AAC is Cincy and they are now gone. With current conference membership I would rate the following : 1-MWC, 2-AAC, 3-SBC, then you pick them from there. This is from what I have seen over the past 10-15 years but with the current members. you can't base things on just last year. What hurts the AAC is they keep getting poached when their teams improve to the top. I think the AAC is probably the best ran conference over the years, which is why their teams keep getting poached. The MWC schools have always been a pain in the butt for P5 schools. Plus they have had a few teams poached over the years (Utah, TCU), & BYU used to be MWC as well before they went independent.

[@rangersking6699]

I wouldn’t be surprised honestly if Oregon state and wazzu try to do something creative like.. Pay MW to be permanently football only members And then instead try to poach 6 WCC teams. You’re telling me Gonzaga wouldn’t be happy to be in a PAC-8 with Oregon State, Wazzu, St Mary’s, San Francisco, Grand Canyon, Santa Clara, and Hawaii(yes, a big west team, but they’re really good usually and the point stands) They get all the benefits of being in the existing WCC in terms of quality but with none of the baggage of playing as many conference games. The buyouts would cost much less so Oregon state and wazzu could keep more of the war chest for themselves. Idk lemme know what you think!

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

This is very intriguing! I need to think on this a little more, might be something for separate episode

[@rangersking6699]

@@CollegeUnderdogs if you think metro areas are important(maybe you do) you could go as far as 10 and bring in Portland and Seattle. I’m sure it would be helpful for engaging Oregon state and wazzu alumni!

[@tylernelson3343]

@@CollegeUnderdogs Trey what your thoughts on Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV getting involved

[@jeh58]

They couldn't afford to do that> right now they are paying the MWC 14 million a year for a total of 12 games.

[@rangersking6699]

@@jeh58 being a full time football member would be different because it would allow them to have two extra candidates to carry the flag of the conference into the playoffs.

[@HMbeav8404]

It takes 9 schools to feel confident they’ll get an invite.

[@teeduck]

I’d stay Independent, like they are for the next two years. Getting more money that way

[@jeh58]

Tee, can't do that. After 2 years the PAC as a conference would die and then the assets would revert back to splitting up between the 12 PAC12 former members.

[@teeduck]

@@jeh58 not sure about that. Then they would have to give back the warchest if they join the ACC or big 12 two years from now. I thought as long as they were pac 2 for 2 years they keep the Warchest. What if they spend it over two years. Then what? I need to see the contract that if the pac folds anytime in the future, even 10 years, they have to give the Warchest back.

[@jeh58]

@@teeduck From how I understand the results from the lawsuit is they have to keep the conference alive to keep the assets.

[@teeduck]

@@jeh58 pretty sure it’s two years. You think if the pac folds in 10, 20 years they have to return the Warchest? Come on

[@dgart7434]

@@jeh58 The only money they might lose is NCAA basketball credits that would pay out after two years. All other assets that they will have next year are owned by OSU and Wazzu.

[@MisterDigDug]

I doubt they’d pay the full exit. They’d negotiate something lower, perhaps to include future scheduling opportunities. 6 football additions makes since, as does grabbing 2-4 non football schools to boost BB. Gonzaga, St Mary’s, etc

[@Alohanate2004]

Ask San Diego State if the MW is willing to negotiate.

[@busaf95]

Correct, the going rate is usually around 60% and not even in a lump sum either.

[@MisterDigDug]

@@Alohanate2004 SD St has an AD who was clearly outplayed. Spoke far too much, gloated actually, and wasn’t professional or mature about the situation. Played correctly that could have gone differently. But in the end they were fortunate it didn’t happen.

[@Alohanate2004]

​@@MisterDigDugIf the fees are written into a contract that everyone signed them what motivation would the MW have to negotiate a lower amount? The AAC may do business like that but not the MW

[@JBK415]

I don't know the terms of the agreement with the previous Pac-12 members, but if legally allowed as part of the agreement, I would approach the Big 12 and offer a merger. This could involve paying the Big 12 to accept the merger, perhaps $75-100 million, which is less than 50% of the Pac-2 war chest (as part of the merger agreement, OSU and WSU keep the rest of the money). This would place the schools in a more relevant and better-marketed conference, positioning them on the second tier (behind the top-tier Big 10 and SEC) rather than in a third-tier conference. Following the merger, rebrand as the Allstate Conference and secure another sponsorship check. While I don't like these changes, the primary goal should be to stay as relevant as possible, bringing more attention to the schools. The secondary goal would be to retain as much of the war chest as possible while solidifying the highest annual revenue for the future.

[@jeh58]

I am sure some sort of buying into the B12 has been attempted. B12 is looking east now & trying to appease the EST members the already have. B12 Commish values teams like Louisville, PITT, UNCST, VT, & others in the ACC more than OSU & WSU. Go Beavs!

[@tylernelson3343]

Trey there is several answers to this question. 8 schools will meet NCAA requirements. Having eight schools doesn’t help with TV Networks because they want contents for their channels. In today college football having only eight schools doesn’t help when you are competing with other conferences especially if they have 16-18 schools. I think having ten schools is the bare minimum for any conference.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Good point 💯

[@CharlesFosterMalloy]

You are dead on in regards to best use of limited financial resources.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Yessir!!!

[@michaelwall3393]

Boise State had 6 losses not 4 and was 7-5 in regular season last season.

[@MattBuild4]

True theres a reason they fired their head coach and lost major players in the middle of the season it was a disaster. This was arguably the worst Boise State team since 1996. But then again thats also an insane floor for any program to have. That your worst season is better than 60% of all teams career track record.

[@DocSkirv]

A reverse merger is the worst case scenario. The PAC will do everything in their power to not do this, their very clear stated goal, if rebuilding the PAC, will include buyouts. And most of those buyouts will be aimed at the MWC top end. The list starts with the 2 priorities… Colorado State, and San Diego State. This captures SoCal and greater Denver markets. UNLV is a likely second choice. With it you get the Vegas market, but also portions of Utah and Arizona. Boise State is a pretty weak market, but it would be the other second tier candidate. Texas will be coveted, so expect a run at Rice, UTSA, or both. Then you pray for an ACC collapse and target Stanford, Cal, and SMU. Tulane a long shot. OSU, Wazzu, Cal, Stanford, San Diego State, Boise St. Colorado St., UNLV, Rice, UTSA, SMU, Tulane Something like that.

[@tylernelson3343]

Especially when Las Vegas is growing market

[@joshgrothues7871]

Sun belt has the best top to bottom con

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

And the point still stands - they’ve never been to a NY6 for same reason I discussed in video

[@chitowntiger1]

You didn't get better. The bar got lowered. You're getting better because the AAC is being demolished. Congrats!

[@michaelwall3393]

@@CollegeUnderdogsyou do know that BYU was always a G5 or non BCS and never made a BCS or NY6 bowl but were added to the Big12. Also to be further countered advocate here; the only other school in the MWC to have made a BCS or NY6 bowls is Hawaii, but they are not considered for any merger or raiding of and by the PAC unless a full reverse merger. Here is another example: if a G5/#whatever# they become, has the best record among all Non-Autonomies doesn’t mean they play in the best Non-Powerhouse League. They just happen to have the best record and be the best team: aka: Liberty from last season. AAC, SBC, and MWC teams cannot clamor and complain about Liberty’s schedule as with conference games no control whatsoever over who is good and who is garbage; but in non conference games, you can blame yourself for not scheduling a home and home and away and away series against Liberty. This season three G5 schools from different G5 conferences are going to get their shot at beating Liberty. Also, in non conference games don’t lose to CUSA teams if you are G5 vs G5. When given the opportunity in non conference games, you need to take care of business or the business will take care of you. All it takes is one playoff appearance by the SBC in the next few years and the comment about not making a NY6 or CFP game goes out the window. The interesting thing will be if PAC is rebuilt in some capacity and they eventually get to the playoffs years down the road, does that make it the first time or count the previous times when they were a Power Conference Contender? Will there be a line of demarcation between the two existences of that conference? I think so. They may say it is the same conference possibly, but it is not. It will be like the Old Big East conference becoming the American Athletic Conference but without the name change.

[@tylernelson3343]

@@CollegeUnderdogs Trey are you convinced that American will get raided

[@jeh58]

Not!

[@judethaddaeus9742]

A couple of corrections: $222m is due the PAC schools within the next 2 years. A total of $275m is due through 2030. And as we saw with the Big XII’s negotiations to poach Cincy, Houston, and UCF from the AAC, exit fees can be paid out over time. Those 3 schools pay the AAC $18m **split up over 14 years.** What’s more, not even Boise State and SDSU want to be part of the Mountain West. Both have tried to leave **twice** in the last 11 years. Reverse merging with the MW would be a disaster for OSU/WSU, especially since there are MW teams that commit less than 1/3 of the money to their athletics budgets that OSU does. Taking the top 3-4 MW teams and probably UTSA, Memphis, & Tulane (and maybe Rice) from the AAC is probably the best way to maximize media value while keeping travel within reason. If an AAC with UNT and Tulsa and FAU in it is worth $7m a year in payout, how much more would Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA make when valued in a conference with Boise State, SDSU, OSU, and WSU? They only have to make, say, $9m a year in media distribution to come out ahead with exit fees factored in, assuming they get a similar deal to leave that Cincy, UCF, and Houston got. Travel would be a somewhat bigger burden, but would still be just 3 time zones compared to all the power congerences’ 4. Even the MW is internally spread over 4 time zones. C-USA, today, with their minimal distribution, is spread over 3. In the past, when teams got left out in realignment, they joined forces with the strongest G5 programs to create a “best of the rest” conference as a launchpad for the top schools to get into the Power realm. That’s what C-USA and the MW did after the SWC collapsed. It’s what the American did after the Big East collapsed, too. And it worked. It’s how everyone from Louisville to Utah to TCU to Houston to SMU got into the upper level of FBS. If OSU/WSU can’t get back into a Power conference, it’s what they should do, too. It’s a far better path than having OSU/WSU’s media value offset by SJSU and UNM through a MW reverse merger. Exit fees can be negotiated and paid out over time.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

There’s a lot to unpack here First, thank you for watching and commenting. I always appreciate sound, well researched posts But there’s a couple of things that I think you aren’t taking into consideration in regard to your case for a “best of the rest conference” 1. The $1B media deal that the AAC is currently under was agreed to prior to UNT or FAU joining. After they lost Cincy/Houston/UCF, there was a “look in” with ESPN (Mike Aresco mentioned this to me in October and the interview is posted on this channel somewhere). Aresco ultimately chose to value media markets over programs for this last round of expansion which upset a lot of AAC fans who were hoping for better teams opposed to raiding the CUSA. I do not think it’s guaranteed that a rebuilt PAC could garner a more lucrative deal than what the AAC is currently under. And if it could, I don’t know that it would be strong enough to offset travel costs for the programs you mentioned. 2. The SWC situation is incredibly similar but also irrelevant given that it happen during a time when College Football as a whole was still a regional event. Media packages, bowl games, etc. were all regional and that is no longer the case as we all know. 3. The original AAC was composed of teams who were “power conference” teams it was composed of 6 former BE teams w 4 CUSA I believe which is much different than 2 former power teams with 6-8 mid major (or what we you want to call it). The reason the teams to move from G5 to P5 the past decade have come from the AAC is due to the media deal that have allowed those programs to invest in their programs like never before. And I’m not as confident as you are that a rebuilt PAC would get a much bigger deal than what the AAC currently has (I could be wrong) without sacrificing linear coverage. You’ve made some valid points and my inner fan would love to see a best of the rest conference formed out of this - especially if it involves west coast, Texas teams, and those southeastern teams you mentioned. (Forgive any typos/errors as I typed all this on my phone 😳)

[@judethaddaeus9742]

@@CollegeUnderdogs Hey thanks for your thoughtful consideration of my post. You also bring up good points (you're more of an expert than I am). As an Oregon State fan, I have thought about this a lot in the last 10 months because... well... what else am I going to do? So I appreciate someone outside my sphere who's willing to provide outside perspective. Thank you. I did have a couple thoughts about your responses above, if you'll indulge me a bit: 1. If the ESPN look-in is going to happen, and AAC teams are likely to get a distribution cut soon, then wouldn't that incentivize teams like Memphis and Tulane - the highest-value AAC brands left (along with USF) to look elsewhere? 2. SDSU, along with OSU & WSU were each set to make $25m a year on the Apple contract less than a year ago. $30m a year with the ESPN offer refused by the bigger brands. 3. Boise State individually makes about twice ($7-8m) what its MW peers make in media distribution, in part because they threatened to leave for the XII back in 2016. Given all of that, I have to believe that Memphis, Tulane, SDSU, and Boise State would make significantly more playing in a league with OSU & WSU than they'd make by staying in their current conferences and playing the SJSU's, FAU's, UNT's, and UNMs of the world (no offense to any of them). Your point about the AAC having been 6 former Big East teams combining with 4 CUSA teams is well taken, but remember that the Big East was also set to take Boise State and SDSU before it collapsed. And by Year 2 of the AAC, that 6/4 BE/CUSA mix had already turned drastically to 4/7. Louisville and Rutgers had already announced their departures for the ACC and Big Ten before the AAC was even officially a thing. So by year 2, the AAC had only 1 school out of 11 that wasn't a G5 member within the decade prior (UConn). Cincy & USF had only been Big East for 8 seasons. Temple had just clawed its way back to the Big East the year before it exploded, after having been kicked out a few years prior. And USF had only been FBS since 2001. At least Tulane used to be SEC at one point. Maybe it's just the orange-tinted glasses, but I really don't see how the AAC would have had that much more to offer in 2013, that a reconstituted PAC with the top MW and AAC teams, wouldn’t have today. But again, I say this as someone, like you, who also thinks it'd be WAY more fun to watch OSU play Tulane and Memphis, than the bottom 2/3rds of the Mountain West. If we can't get into the XII or ACC, that is. So maybe wishful thinking fills in the gaps in reason.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

This is good stuff man! I hope you stick around the channel, love these types of comments (I’m not always able to respond but people are reading trust me) And I don’t know if you’re on Twitter/X but Boise States AD seems to be dropping major hints at a rebuilt PAC/best of rest conference (at least not shying away from showing his support for one)…he’s had some interactions with me personally and he followed me today after “liking” my post about a “best of rest” conference funded by private equity Which opens up another can of worms if PE gets involved!!

[@judethaddaeus9742]

@@CollegeUnderdogsI saw that you and he interacted! I know Boise State was the source of the promotion/relegation idea that was discussed a few months ago, too. Glad to see folks leaving no stone unturned. I do worry about PE, though. The bills have to come due at some point, firms have to show a quick ROI, and university athletics isn’t built like any other type of business out there. We shall see. And I appreciate the opportunities to interact and talk things out. But I don’t feel entitled to your attention either. You do you. 😊Happy to stick around, though, because you’re thoughtful and represent schools that get unjustly overlooked.

[@Tevpct]

Question and a comment: Does part of that war chest need to go to previous players dating back to 2016, per the latest legal battle? As for paying termination fees, HECK NO! You want in, you pay, and you get a smaller take of the TV revenue, Ala Stanford, Cal and SMU. Otherwise, stay obsolete.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Yes, and the Comcast settlement as well Agreed on your second point (if that’s the route they go)

[@WeSRT4]

I predict a merger with the leftovers of the ACC after it falls apart. It won't be long...

[@Mike-aka747]

They going to the big 12

[@Mike-aka747]

Louisville NCS Pitt Miami Virginia Tech and GT to Big 12. Virginia and UNC to SEC Clemson and crybaby FSU off to the Big10.

[@billl1127]

If the ACC falls apart, Stanford and CAL will look to rejoin the Pac. Then it's a question of finding 4 teams that they consider snobby enough to round out to 8.

[@WeSRT4]

@@Mike-aka747 FSU, Clemson, NC, Virginia Tech to SEC. Virginia and Miami to B1G. Louisville, NC State, Pitt, and Stanford to the Big 12. Watch.

[@Mike-aka747]

@@billl1127 They’ll be knocking on big12’s door and they’ll say “hello no”. Cal and Stanford w/ their attitudes are screwed honestly and they deserve it. Theres no snobby programs In the MWC. And the PAC teams that went to the Big 12 unless they’re incredibly stupid say an Utah or ASU go back to a revamped PAC? Chances are slim To zero. Cal and Stanford, screwed! 😃

[@user-bv8rv1vt7k]

To me there is a Secondary move they could make, which is WHY did the PAC2 sign a deal with the WCC for everything BUT Football? I would like to think that the best move that can be made is Merge ALL 3 remaining western conferences. The WCC, PAC2 and MW. Simply Dissolve the MW and merge all NON-REV sports into the WCC. This leaves Basketball and Football remaining. The PAC2 becomes the Football/Basketball center for the 3 conferences' sports. For basketball you have some nice built in matchups and you can even subdivide the PAC Basketball into 2 divisions of "The Mountain West" and "Pacific Coast." This would make for some great matchups. As for football, you get some decent MW schools and hope that Cal and Stanford will come back with an ACC blow up. IF worse comes to worse, the PAC2, IMO should explore merging with the WCC. It maybe cheaper to buy those teams into the Conference than the MW. All the NCAA by laws says is they need to have 8 teams total, it doesn't say that they have to play football. Football can be independent for a few more years and wait for the blowup of college sports in 2030.

[@SeanRobison]

The reverse merger makes the most sense, and most of the experts say that the best of the rest will most likely be the group of 5 representative almost every year moving forward because the SOS will be taken into account more. It makes those most sense, so the PAC 12 won't do it. The experts say WSU and OSU would command 10 to 15 million max with BSU, SDSU, FSU and AF. If you bring any of those teams, they won't come for less than OSU and WSU would be making from a media deal. Those teams know they have that leverage with the PAC 2. The PAC 2 with a full merger can hold onto the war chest, but at least the top half of the MW would demand they get as much as OSU and WSU are getting. PAC 2 have a war chest, but the MW has the leverage.

[@atgdcommish608]

Merging with the MWC is a non-starter. It leaves way too much money on the table. The MWC TV deal is around 5M a year, and their odds of getting the lone G5 automatic playoff bid are slim. The Pac2 should instead rebuild the Pac with the best G5 programs nationally. They could get 2 to 3 times the TV deal, pretty much lock up a football playoff bid every year, and pick up more basketball tournament revenue as well.

[@atgdcommish608]

Rebuilding the Pac is the only option. Start with Oregon State and Washington State, add Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, UNLV, Tulane and Memphis to get to 8 teams. That's already way better than any other G5 conference. Then add San Jose State, Colorado State, Rice and North Texas for TV and recruiting footprint, and 12 teams. Pick up New Mexico State, UTSA, Air Force and Louisiana for some additional football strength, and 16 teams (all west of the Mississippi, except Memphis and Tulane which are on the river.) Finally, add an East Coast division with Liberty, James Madison, Appalachian State and USF (or Coastal Carolina if the ACC nabs USF first). That league would dominate the G5, earn 2 to 3x what any G5 conference does now in TV rights (around half of the Big12/ACC level), and rake in football and basketball tournament money every year. It's a no-brainer.

[@genxsports8486]

Excuse me me sir. It’s 2pac…..thank you.