Updated 2024 Senate Map Prediction (May 2, 2024)

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An updated look at the 2024 Senate Map, with a prediction approximately six months before Election Day.
0:00 Introduction & Background
1:05 Advertisement
2:08 Safe States Analysis
3:09 Likely States Analysis
6:44 Lean States Analysis
11:08 Tossup States Analysis
16:36 Outro
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#2024Election #SenatePrediction

[@RedEaglePolitics]

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[@scooterh7047]

Is there any consideration for the independent candidate out of Nebraska Dan Osborn making that race even remotely competitive?

[@vittorioluchi2134]

Thank you for your analysis. I remain perplexed by the fact that voters in swing states like PA and AZ could vote for a candidate like Trump and simultaneously vote in Democratic candidates into Senate office. Are these races merely popularity contests?

[@HaywoodJablomie-vv8mu]

You have to factor in Pennsylvania Amish population. You cant poll them and they are the most conservative group of people. With over 80,000 of them and Biden going after Amish dairy farms they are going to turn out for Trump!

[@AlvinSeville1]

Give Trump the Senate and the House, folks. Make America sane again.

[@enriqueiii9209]

Then vote BLUE💙💙💙💙

[@AlvinSeville1]

@@enriqueiii9209 I said sane, not insane. 🙂

[@enriqueiii9209]

@@AlvinSeville1 I'm just trolling you guys. LMAO

[@AlvinSeville1]

@@enriqueiii9209 LOL OK

[@patrickoligney6647]

USA vs Donald J Trump

[@luannebowling5682]

Hope Lake wins in AZ

[@fuzzymanbella]

All of those who have friends and family who never vote, do absolutely everything you can to convince them to get registered and go out to the polls on November 5 to vote red up and down the ballot. The fate of our country relies on this election.

[@chuckhoyle1211]

I think my wife will even go Red this election. Her parents are old-school union Democrats and it has been hard to break the programming. All my kids and my side of the family are all on the Trump train.

[@Raspberries9372]

Definitely. The high inflation, borders crisis, crime rates have to be dealt with the most.

[@JD10503]

You think it matters? We're already lost.

[@RedPolitics1776]

TRUMP 2024! DONATE, VOTE!

[@enriqueiii9209]

Why donate if Trump is a "Billionaire".

[@lordphoenix9698]

@@enriqueiii9209 The vast majority of that money is tied up in non-liquid assets.

[@patrickoligney6647]

No

[@starmnsixty1209]

Yes.

[@user-gf3lw5pi4t]

Kennedy 2024❤❤

[@woofy548]

I want Gallegos, Tester, Brown.... Gone

[@user-by1fh9lh2g]

And the ignorant black caucus.

[@brianjob3018]

GallegO does not need to be gone as he's not the Senator now, Sinema is--ever heard of that one?

[@woofy548]

I really hope Kari Lake can win. She deserves redemption.

[@Raspberries9372]

You mean like Stacey Abrams or Beto O’Rourke?

[@filippians413]

I will never believe Hobbs won that election fairly. There was a lot of sketchy stuff going on

[@peterjermey7235]

I think she's really screwed herself with abortion because not only was she pushing for the 1864 law a few years ago, but she's made public statements in support of it even since it became law

[@crawford1083]

The disgusting antics the Dems pulled in Maricopa in favour of Katie Hobbs - hopefully Kari can get redemption as you say.

[@Jack209]

@@Raspberries9372yeah that’s basically what she’ll become, the Republican Beto o’rourke. She’s going to continue running and each loss is going to solidify the end of her career even more. She should have run for that open house seat and built some rapport.

[@chance_ondriezek99]

The fact that some polls are saying Tester and Brown will win by 10 points with Trump on the ballot is delusional 😂

[@PowerDiva]

I'm a Democrat and even I know that's crazy lol. I think Tester is gonna be in trouble. He's a popular incumbent and if this weren't a presidential year, I'd say he has a shot. But Montana is just too red to think he can pull out another win against the odds. Sherrod Brown is also a popular incumbent whose chances are better than Tester... but it's still an uphill battle in a presidential year. I think the Senate will be 52-48 in favor of the GOP and I think MT and OH (plus WV) will be the seats that flip. NV and WI will be close, but I think Dems will pull out the wins there still.

[@dvferyance]

@@PowerDiva Could be but if I were Tammy Baldwin right now I would be worried.

[@PowerDiva]

@@dvferyance she's pretty popular and it's still early. If the polls still have her down in August, I think she should worry... I don't think she will before then.

[@dvferyance]

@@PowerDiva She was considered a shoe in and she is only up by 3 I think she has a reason to worry.

[@PowerDiva]

@@dvferyance I mean we'll see... polls this early don't actually mean much. Just like the Larry Hogan polls saying he's going to dominate the MD Senate race. I don't buy that either. I think Baldwin will be fine, but like I said - we'll see what the polls say after August.

[@daryllawson9337]

Trump train is coming 2024

[@lotsaluck721]

Vote all Democrats out!!!! MAGA!!

[@hmk5123]

I think Maryland can definitely be a lean or tilt flip.

[@hellsunicorn]

McCormick was the worst possible person the Pennsylvania GOP could have nominated, but like with Santorum I’ll hold my nose and vote for him because of how horrible Casey has been. That said, they need to get somebody serious to run against Shapiro in 2026, because he’s an absolute disaster.

[@lindarebstock8422]

Agreed

[@user-jd5zt4of8q]

Maybe get the other Shapiro :)

[@hellsunicorn]

@@user-jd5zt4of8q Unfortunately he’s too tied into living in California, Pennsylvania Democrats always rip out of staters to shreds when they run for office here, despite Josh Shapiro being from freaking Kansas City.

[@Jack209]

Why is it impossible to get someone from PA to run? Why is PA completely devoid of solid charismatic republicans?

[@hellsunicorn]

@@Jack209 Pennsylvania's GOP has a rich history of being dominated by RINO elitists that goes back to the days of senator John Heinz, some of it relates to the party's ties to the wrong side of the Coal & Rail Industry vs. the Labor Unions issue, which is the main reason why the GOP only recently managed to oust the Democrats from power in West Virginia despite how historically conservative said state is compared to the Dem party nationally, but overall it's just a quirky part of Pennsylvania political culture. We're decades behind the curve when it comes to political paradigm switches, which is why you have otherwise fiscally conservative voters in the Philly suburbs backing Biden, because the state's GOP still tilts to the left on social issues. It's a remnant fixture of Pennsylvania's latent Quaker culture, which has always been left of center when it comes to certain stuff, though we are largely a pro-free market and culturally Christian state. Another thing to consider is that, prior to late 1950s, Pennsylvania was almost as heavily Republican as South Carolina is now. It was unheard of for a Democrat to become mayor of Philadelphia, but in the early 20th century and particularly during WWII, FDR and the Democrats managed to flip 90% of the minority vote with freebies to the point that Philadelphia may never have a mayor of majority European ancestry again, let alone a Republican. Philadelphia was the original lifeblood of the Republican Party in Pennsylvania, whereas Pittsburgh and the western counties is where the Democrats were headquartered. Now it's the exact opposite and, sadly, the eastern part of Pennsylvania has the majority of the voting population. If McCormick can simply disown his past positions on outsourcing and knock off the Bush era foreign policy crap while fully embracing Trump's populism, he'd win easily. Outsourcing is a deal-breaker for 60% of the people who live here, and honestly, if it weren't for Casey being such a loyal lapdog to every crazy thing that Schumer wants to inflict on the country, I'd be tempted to vote for him over McCormick because of how much I hate Neoconservatism and Globalism.

[@Johnger1109]

Pennsylvanian here. 100% agree it will be a split verdict this year here between the Presidential and Senate race

[@247Clips-km6mp]

yeah. trump wins. tilt or lean D senate wini

[@seanpeck8748]

McCormick is just another McRomBush Republican, the only kind the GOP of PA will let run... and that will never take out Casey, short of Trump winning PA huge and his coattails dragging McCormick over the finish line... Without Trump on the ticket, McCormick has ZERO chance of getting within 5 of Casey.

[@bobfishnut]

That would be awful! It's like nullifying your own vote. No Democrat will ever vote for a Trump agenda issue ever.

[@Raspberries9372]

It doesn’t help that Dave McCormick also sucks as candidate.

[@VeritasVivet]

Voting for Trump on the top of the ticket and then Democrat down-ballot just makes no sense. Its like stepping on the gas pedal and the brake pedal at the same time. It shows your intentions aren’t really to affect policy change - you’re just voting for who you like more.

[@johninmorocco4343]

Thank you from an American in Morocco.

[@paradiseisland786]

Great update Red Eagle thank you.

[@AmazingGuy13]

Republicans need to get more than 52 Senate seats because of the RINOs like Murkowski and Collins

[@danielbidlack5072]

They most likely will. I think this time they have a floor of 54 and a ceiling of 57.

[@peggymartinez-hg9lm]

gotta love rinos

[@MC-ht6lw]

Your doing a great job 👏 👍

[@jonbruce536]

Great job!

[@janejohnstone5795]

Always like your videos...

[@FlyinGecko]

Thanks!

[@rumman1234]

Thank you for the senate prediction!!!

[@ThomasBoyd-ex5vr]

Thanks

[@MeanM]

Big fan and I only found your channel a few months ago. Always wanted to do something like this so nice to see someone doing it. Can you do the house when you can? Keep up the good work!

[@tedberwick3186]

Ty

[@TesterIsDone]

My name is right. TesterIsDone

[@jehobden]

Ms. Domenici is a half-sister of Adam Laxalt, as his father was also Domenici.

[@RedEaglePolitics]

True

[@AmazingGuy13]

Trump should be able to carry Republicans to 55-57 Senate seats in a best case scenario

[@Hanad3]

regardless Biden winning reelection the gop are favorite to flip the senate because MT & OH

[@peggymartinez-hg9lm]

never

[@dsquared341]

That obviously won’t happen. They should be happy if they get 52, because anything higher would require a collapse in turnout for democrats.

[@bruceboyer8187]

Please do a deep dive into Maine and NM.

[@81pdmatt]

I disagree with alot here, I do agree Republicans win Ohio and Montana but Hogan wins Maryland by a bigger margin than both, Dems win Nevada and Arizona, Lake is closer. Dems win Wisconsin, Republicans win Michigan. I think we end up with 53.

[@user-ut8sh8bg5f]

Is there any chance Lake could lose the primary? That sheriff she's running against is pretty good.

[@michaelwellen2866]

Dont count out Hogan. He understands his state.

[@guardianminifarm8005]

Hopefully

[@WhoWouldWantThisName]

Well so many people have said that Kari Lake is in such a strong position to win the senate race, compared to the Gov., and I don't know if anything has changed in that regard but this seems quite different than their assessment. I thought she was supposed to be something of a shoe-in, aside from the Maricopa County shenanigans of course.

[@paulpichey5876]

I think you are right

[@markcox3053]

I hope

[@brianmoore1164]

I know it would be a much larger project, but please consider a House prediction as well.

[@fm32047]

REP, dont forget you have Green Party senate candidates in AZ. Rotten Reubens in trouble

[@wildwestbassin8367]

I didn’t realize the Green Party had a senate candidate. We need them to stay in the race and not drop out for Kari Lake to win.

[@tinaharris9083]

I can only hope and pray your right.

[@Mrblue..b]

Could you do a video ranking house Republicans

[@GeneleUrbiztondoDueyEdraHansen]

And NJ

[@Sshooter444]

Its going to be sick seeing Adam Schiff as senator.

[@sosuapimp8449]

Steve Garvey can still win

[@arostilis]

Rs will have to have at least 52-53 b/c of Collins and Murkowski.

[@Rasdawg915]

Alabamas 3rd district should elect a democrat in congress. Electing Mike Rogers is basically the same thing.

[@jenniferbowie2773]

Idk about Kerri lake in az? She seems to have a good chance but ? Given there past I guess I don’t know if I believe she will win

[@stevekuresa5139]

The people of Arizona once and for all get your SH^t together. The inflation should be enough to put Kari Lake in office as your Senator.

[@user-lu9up6oj2z]

Do your predictions account for 3am ballot dumps

[@Boreasos]

This 54/46 prediction is nearly a mirror of the 2022 may prediction. I predict this will age as well as that one did.

[@bernardcoombs1778]

I agree with every prediction .. EXCEPT .. I believe Kari Lake will pull out a win in Arizona, giving Republicans 55 seats.

[@patricklonski]

I am a Republican but your analysis is always wildly optimistic especially in Senate races. I lived in Wisconsin and while I don't like Tammy Baldwin she will win. The only way Hovde can win is if Trump pulls him over the finish line and I think that is too steep a hill.

[@chrisferretti7020]

Thanks to a meme, now every time I see Montana I see Biden sniffing Idaho. 😁

[@Jamesbee1225]

I can’t believe Gallegos is ahead of Kari Lake in Arizona!

[@YoastyToasty-wr3bh]

Wisconsin is the one I’m most interested in watching

[@JingJao]

The candidates this cycle are REALLY good. People gonna hate on me for this, but I think they're awesome. Kari Lake is amazing and very reasonable. If you talk to her, I think you'll like her. Sam Brown is a nice guy I like him. Eric Hovde is another great guy. Tim Sheehy is very likeable. Moreno in Ohio is also just a really fantastic guy. I like McCormick, he's a nice guy, but a bit of a RINO. I like Hung Cao, but I don't think he'll win. I don't like Mike Rogers in Michigan, but I am rooting for him. I hope he wins. I

[@tedberwick3186]

WOW

[@cadenknightt]

Explain to me the difference between Eric Hovde and Tim Michels?

[@stevekuresa5139]

My choice for the Senate Leader are Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio or Rand Paul in 2025 definately not Rino Lindsey Graham..

[@pkr5968]

AZ is most concerning.

[@NihilistSolitude]

NJ might be tight due to the incumbents might run 3rd party and he has huge support with the large hispanic community

[@roganmuldoon3357]

Much as I would like the spread to be as you predict, I find it hard to believe that we can pull it off. In the end a lot of people will go to the polling booths, uncertain about their choices because of the proven lack of quality in the Democrats today, but will then bite the bullet and stay with the familiar choices.

[@FightandReviveShow]

As a Virginian who has been watching the Senate race very closely and been involved in it, to me it seems that Jonathan Emord is the favorite to win, not Hung Cao. Emord Happens to be my preferred candidate, but he really does have the strongest ground game and it's not even close in that regard, he's doing decently well fundraising, and Hung has run into a scandal, and his campaign is not reaching many people

[@baxtorbrowning]

What scandal?

[@sa3270]

I live in Texas (Allred's district no less) and I don't think I've seen a single Allred bumper sticker. There were tons of Beto stickers in past years.

[@SolTerran5050]

What was up with the states in white?

[@stephenyouhanaie9524]

I'd change MD

[@VeritasVivet]

There aren’t really any demographic shifts in Maryland which explain such a rightward swing in MD. Especially in an era where your party affiliation matters more than your policy to a majority of voters. 65% of Marylanders are just going to go in and vote for the D all the way down.

[@fm32047]

@@VeritasVivetthats what dems are counting on but i dont think it will work the way theyre thinking because they have really bad candidates and Hogan is extremely popular

[@AmazingGuy13]

Trump/Gabbard 2024

[@AlexBrown-uo6cy]

Garvey has a chance of pulling off a major upset in California!!!

[@nautgamingnautgaming9949]

They say Eric hovde is crazy for doing the polar plunge The polar plunge is a Wisconsin tradition n a Wisconsin thing So as a voter I am like thank you for pointing out how Eric hovde is an authentic wisconsinite lol

[@Burabshurab]

That was the worst thing they could find out about him lol. They’re scared.

[@brockward6032]

Yes he’s very authentic. With his California Villa and Company with many flinging of elder abuse.

[@chuckcombs5427]

LET'S GOOOOO,, LET'S DO IT AGAIN, GIVE PRESIDENT TRUMP ANOTHER BIG WIN, LET'S GO ❤ TRUMP ❤ 2024❤❤ MAGA❤❤❤

[@slibertas1996]

I’d be watching Justin Amash in Michigan. I know he’s more libertarian but he could upset the Michigan apple cart

[@Burabshurab]

Do a governor prediction

[@TheDuckofDoom.]

Yes. There are 11 up this round and a few that could be rather interesting, like WA.

[@Burabshurab]

@@TheDuckofDoom. yeh. I’m from Washington, and it’s a chaotic dogfight between Semi Bird and Dave Reichert. Not sure who you’re supporting, but I’m supporting Bird.

[@TheDuckofDoom.]

​@@Burabshurab Its not actually that chaotic, especially now that the state convention endorsed Bird. Reichert seems to be coasting on his name like he wouldn't mind staying retired. The rest of the under the table monkey motion is pretty typical of the state party anytime an outsider shows up at the good old boys club. I like Bird in the primary and anybody other than ol' "separate but equal Ferguson" in the general. I don't know if Bird is the most electable in the eyes of Joe average voter, but the general public has always been too fickle and irrational for me to predict. But I do know he has put in the leg work and seems to know how to pick his battles while also not being another generic milktoast copy-paste republican. (The local media is already trying to smear him with the MAGA label, even though he focuses completely on WA ignoring national politics including Trump.)

[@thomaswillingham4084]

Do a worst case senate

[@danielbidlack5072]

Worst case probably 53-54.

[@furball5543]

PA vote defeat casey!

[@paxriv]

Roger's better poised to win MI than you think.

[@tombruner9634]

That's all reasonable, but what I wonder is if there are more than four RINOs in the mix. If this is what happens and there are six RINOs, then even a loyal VP won't be able to get anything passed.

[@justins1378]

Maryland? Hogan we all don't think will win but he crushed it for Governor. I can't stand him but I think you have to put him 50/50 now

[@brianjob3018]

Stop with the intolerance of a heroic moderate, Justin. That's what wins for us in those secular humanist states, so leave that bigotry to the Democrats.

[@matthewdellarocco]

REP: as a lifelong marylander, MD is at MOST lean dem. Hogan will likely win it.

[@keninil8771]

Don't you think Shifty will be disqualified in CA b/c he doesn't live there for tax purposes? (See Gateway Pundit articles) Harvey will probably win by more than 10 if there is not an opponent>

[@bobfishnut]

I think PA and AZ are more likely than not to go red. Gotta keep up the great work in the races. Get involved and donate what you can. Let's make this Senate MAGA as much as possible! Gotta have upper and lower chambers to get MAGA bills passed! LET'S GO!

[@Jack209]

Dave McCormick isn’t going to win in a million years. He’s not even from the state and he’s basically a democrat.

[@brianjob3018]

A lot of energy and enthusiasm, Bob....Can you interpret "donate" as donate YOUR TIME and THAT ENERGY by (1) computer-/cell-calling out-of-state for select candidates, e.g., Lake, Sheehy and Moreno, and (2) witnessing to strangers around you about voting Red? Stop relying so much like a damn DemonRat on the money who do it to appeal to voters' fears, moral vanity, racial and gender bias and other selfish interests. Until you do that yourself, Bob, I think you should restrict yourself to "LETS GO, BRANDON!". P.s.: Skipped PA bc we can't overcome our #2 and #3 enemies, White RINO Broads in the 'burbs and Independents, supporting Obama-dong-sucking Casey.

[@SourceEngineChaos110]

I personally have Lake winning, I feel like her being so aligned with Trump is going to greatly help her in the general. With Gallego being so far left, all Lake needs to do is run a less aggressive campaign and she wins the moderates

[@bruceboyer8187]

My oredition is Rs hold all. Flip (in order of likelyhood) WV, MT, OH, AZ, MD, NV, WS. Possibles are NJ ( its a 3 way race w Menendez running as an ind, though my bet is he drops out so NJ will not be a flip) MI, NM, MN, ME, VA, PA as possibles w Garvey having a shot in CA. MN is in major upheaval. Dems ramming through gun control and backlash against the Somali/Moslem/Leftist/ corporate/Statists is huge.

[@VeritasVivet]

I’m not that hopeful about public attitude toward generic congressional Republicans in 2024. I feel like we could get 52 or 53 seats but I would be surprised to see anything in the rust belt flip

[@Greenacres1958]

Rinos are coming out of the woodwork! It’s crazy. Now the speaker? Again!?

[@WIGutie]

I would say New Jersey due to the Bob Menedez situation will have a marginal impact that could bring the Republican candidate (if not abysmal) within 10. Possibly 8 points.

[@kennethhartzell7689]

Arizona and Michigan will flip Red.

[@deep6301]

Florida Sen. Scott has a black challenger

[@peggymartinez-hg9lm]

scott will win people hate blacks in florida

[@PowerDiva]

Elissa Slotkin shouldn't be underestimated. She's a prolific fundraiser and excellent campaigner. Her first campaign saw her beat a popular GOP incumbent when she had no political experience to claim. She went on to beat a primary challenger in the next election with over 70% of the vote then went on to win reelection by a comfortable margin against a strong Republican challenger. In 2022 redistricting saw her pushed into a lean R district where she overperformed and beat another popular Republican who was expected to win. This is also when Democrats underperformed in House races around the country and lost control of the House - Slotkin's win defied the odds that year. Barring some huge scandal... I'm pretty comfortable saying she'll win the MI Senate seat. I'm not even sure it will be that close.

[@fm32047]

ive heard Slotkins campaign is actually not very good this time around. Also if Trump wins Michigan shes in trouble. John James outperformed Trump in his senate election in 2020 and if that trend continues, Slotkin loses.

[@PowerDiva]

@@fm32047 John James tried to take on Stabenow and lost, then he challenged Michigan's other Senate incumbent Gary Peters and also lost. He finally had success running for the House and BARELY won over a mediocre Democrat. He had a .5 percent victory. He did outperform Trump that year, but I think it was less about him and more about the failed campaign of his challenger. Slotkin has faced some pushback over Gaza recently so I'll concede that she's got an extra challenge. But that's really more of an issue for her in the primary than the general election, because Mike Rogers is far more pro-Israel than she is - which is the issue for some people. She may have a bigger primary challenge than usual, but I still think she'll do fine in the general election.

[@mikehaas3366]

Change Arizona

[@GaryDahlke]

I would change 3 states.nevada and Wisconsin going blue .Maryland red

[@user-mm9qn6mx9s]

Nevada depends on candidate. If they have a great candidate, then it can go red.

[@danielbidlack5072]

Way more likely NV and WI are red than MD being red.

[@JoseSantos-zj3ll]

55 red to 45 blue

[@JC-hi8fk]

How does someone vote for Trump, and then down ticket vote for someone who's going to oppose his on everything?

[@sa3270]

Do people understand that as a Senator, abortion won't be Kari Lake's issue anyway? So why are people getting in a tissy about her?

[@Prolificposter]

Because that’s their religion. They would elect 535 Democrats to Congress and flush the country down the Turlet for their “right to end.”

[@scottmcdonald5237]

😮

[@bidnow2946]

I still don't share your confidence about Ohio. Big city suburban voters are on the fence and waiting for any October surprise to vote D.

[@danielbidlack5072]

I think you have to look at recent history. Trump won by like 8 in 2016 and 8 in 2020. He’s expected to win by 10-15 this year. Vance won by 6 in an underwhelming GOP year. There’s no statewide dem anymore except Brown. Brown has yet to run when Trump is on the ticket. He’s barely won in a blue wave against a nobody candidate. Moreno is a strong candidate. With little split ticket voting anymore Brown would have to outrun Trump and that’s not likely when he usually only wins by like 5-8 points.

[@timothyehrler4325]

Red Eagle Politics huh? Lmfao!

[@AmazingGuy13]

MAGA 2024

[@GeneleUrbiztondoDueyEdraHansen]

We're gonna have alot of flipping

[@zakariyayahya6011]

Larry Hogan will wi this race. 61% of Democrats approve Hogan.

[@josephweems7994]

I still believe VA is going to surprise the U.S.

[@publiconions6313]

Alg

[@trentaston3784]

As always.

[@Totalfog]

I don’t know why you continue not to do your homework on Maryland. Hogan will win and he’ll be a great senator.

[@danielbidlack5072]

Hogan is insanely popular. The part you’re forgetting about is people don’t split ticket vote anymore. Because we are so polarized people just don’t vote for different parties in different races. They vote the same party up and down the ballot. So when Biden wins the state by probably 20 points or so because it’s deep blue, that means hogan would have to outrun him. That’s a tall order even for a popular governor. We saw the same thing happen to former governor Steve Bullock in Montana. He lost big to incumbent Steve Daines. Popular Dem governor in a red state against a red candidate. So Hogan is basically in a reverse spot. Would I love to have an additional senate seat? Absolutely. But it’s about looking at the environment and not kid ourselves about human behavior.

[@bearbait49]

Tester has always been elected by late vote “finds” in democrat meaning areas. Let’s hope it is not that close this year

[@user-jd5zt4of8q]

I think the difference is that Montana always had Dem Governors but now they have Gianforte