Russia is Bankrupt - Mathematical Proof

Russian budget and spending, as officially reported by the Office of the Accounting and Budgeting Processes in Moscow, lack independent review and transparency, leading to significant doubts regarding the accuracy and reliability of the reported financial figures. Consequently, these numbers cannot be substantiated with confidence. However, it is possible to reasonably estimate Russia's economic and monetary stability by using an indirect approach that leverages the accounting equation, mainly focusing on oil and gas revenue.
A simple mathematical model can be constructed based on arms-length market transactions, which are valued according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), such as market price or book value, to develop a more accurate picture. By analyzing these transactions, we can derive the reported revenue and a more accurate estimate of actual profit. Since profit forms the basis for tax revenue, this approach allows for a more realistic assessment of Russia's financial standing.
Furthermore, conservative estimates suggest that Russia has made financial commitments exceeding the capacity of its National Wealth Fund. This financial strain is further compounded by international sanctions, which have severely limited Russia's ability to issue bonds and access external financing-a stark contrast to the mechanisms available in free democratic countries. The impact of these sanctions on Russia's financial strain supports the argument that the country may be approaching a state of insolvency or even bankruptcy.
Let's make the world a better place and strive for transparency in reporting. If any data presented is in question, let me know. I sincerely want to be factual and hopeful that the world is moving in the right direction. Mark Biernat

[@StarskyUA]

I also remember those times when “everything was good” in russia, late 80’s, then thousands of people in the US suddenly started packing humanitarian aid for russians, “Bush Legs”, cheap chicken - to save them from starvation. Unfortunately, you will never hear them saying “thank you”.

[@worldwide9745]

Good to see you here, Starsky. 👍🏼

[@StepDub]

Apparently they complain the the food sent contained GMO etc. so thanks are not required.

[@knopkaplay0507]

Really? Did you guys from Ukraine send thank you notes to the US for Bush legs? Maybe install a monument to bush legs? I personally did thank the German family that sent us humanitarian aid. Not too impressed with US MREs they sent us after Desert storm - but I would have sent a thank you note too, if I knew who to address it to.

[@natalieturko4808]

​@@knopkaplay0507What are "bush legs"???

[@oleopathic]

Don't forget Lend-Lease in WW2 to prevent Eastern front from collapsing on Stalin's head.

[@rbir2653]

Joe Blogs has been saying this for months. The money is gone. The ruskies have 6 months left before they are finished.

[@palsci]

What will the effect actually be after these 6 months? Im genuinely curious, wont they just print more money and borrow more?

[@kevinwaalker]

@@palsci Yes they can print more worthless paper. No one will lend to them not even the Chinese.

[@-----REDACTED-----]

@@palsci That inevitably leads to further inflation or even hyperinflation. You can print as much money as you want, the relative prices stay pretty much the same. And who would lend Russia money when it has shown it will quite literally steal? Your investments are not protected at all. Even the Chinese back off of dealing with Russia because Russia is so incredibly untrustworthy, with the sanctions being an added incentive to stay clear of them.

[@grahortarg9933]

@@palsci yep, they will. They already do, wholesale printing of money goes for at least a year and a half. There will be no measurable effects for the next decade. It will greatly harm Russian people long term, but it will not influence the war. Joe Blogs says that ruskies have 6 months left for 2 years and counting. *sigh* If there is an example of propaganda we eat because we like it, Joe Blogs is the prime example. Scroll his videos to a year ago and compare to today's. Oh, well. People are stupid.

[@a0flj0]

@@palsci Printing money only gets you so far. The US can afford to print money, because the US has a functional and strong economy. The developed European countries (i.e. not Romania or Bulgaria, or, more recently, Hungary) can print money, because their economies are also strong and functional. However, if you print money in a weak and somewhat dysfunctional economy, you'll quickly kill it. Does Russia look like a strong and stable economy to you? For money to do its job and make the economy run better, it has to flow into the economy gradually, and be used to increase that economy's output, not just finance the waste of resources that is war. Russia is in a bad position to grow its economy right now - access to technology is hugely expensive due to sanctions. Therefore, it is safe to assume that in six months from now especially the industrial sector will have a lower output than it has now. Printing money won't somehow miraculously increase that output.

[@dontuckerjr]

I guess Putin got what he wanted, a return to the Soviet system, but it appears he forgot that the Soviet system went bankrupt.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Sorry, good friend: this video is a web of lies. Russia is doing very well. n'en deplaise...

[@kerriwilson7732]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 great market for fertilizer in Ukraine; Russian exports are up Up UP.

[@emceeboogieboots1608]

​@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001Well that is excluding the poor young men sent off as cannon fodder... And the families they are supposed to be supporting I guess 🤔

[@nobodynever7884]

How has Russia returned to the Soviet system?

[@Hasmasnafg]

He's just dumb jerk, this Putin

[@tanyaroberson9629]

It explains why they are only paying the refugees from Kursk a one time payment of 10,000 rubles- about $110 dollars. And they are only paying the people Russian authorities evacuated- not people who drove out in their cars.

[@hansericsson7058]

They arent even paying them that, that money was only for people who was evacuated 90% evacuated them self and they gets nothing.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

@@hansericsson7058 The money is for out of pocket expenses. The food and shelter and other essentials are provided free, Don't lie.

[@tetyanakorogoda6146]

​@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001don't lie, russia is in a habbit of not helping its people - be it in Kursk region, or those who suffered from the recent fires in the South, or those who left their homes due to floods. Because russia is a bankrupt

[@CollectiveWest1]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 Is the Kremlin paying people who left by their own transport, and were not evacuated by the government?

[@stuartmcconnachie]

Your 10,000 Ruble cheque will be posted to your registered home address. Yours, Vlad.

[@mirellafalso6112]

Nice work Mark. Simple accounting cuts through the Kremlin’s BS and I’m glad you’re pointing this out.

[@LambofSuffering]

nevermind that he said same stuff last year and year before that...Russia is about to collapse just any sec now... just w8t a bit more and more and more and maybe tomorrow ? lol

[@GalAxy-u9s]

And yet they are doing great...

[@dpelpal]

@@GalAxy-u9s I am Russian. We are NOT doing great. Have u seen what inflation rate is in Russia? lol We have BANK INTEREST RATE of 19%

[@grahortarg9933]

@@dpelpal who cares? You will eat bark for the Motherland and LOVE it. Who needs loans anyway?

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Simple accounting? This is all fake: the guy is just spreading lies. RF's economy is doing well, thank you. If it weren't. the Western pedia would be full of horror stories.

[@davidcobb464]

In Russia, the government may change, but the lies stay the same.

[@victorsmall7]

old habits!

[@Rhotz-ix8ll]

aka Different clowns same circus

[@geraldc5165]

Yep. Just like the US

[@Lund.J]

The owner of the channel is not wrong. And Brick(s) is made of clay.

[@ArnoSchlick]

@@geraldc5165 comparing the Ruble over the last 100 years with the US Dollar shows a different picture. 🫠😇

[@angusabbott5615]

Being told to “use your critical thinking “ by a kid must have been rather annoying 😳especially years later when it turns out that kid was correct

[@Chaxar]

Now this is what I am talking about😊

[@grisza77]

I've been both the kid and told. As told I regret being so deaf, as a kid I regret not being able to put my message through. Both taught me a lot and I'm thankful for having have experienced them.

[@CollectiveWest1]

When I was at state school in the UK, one senior teacher (who i thought was clever), told our class that, when we heard numbers about the UK economy, we should remember that in the UK a billion meant one million million, not one thousand million, as in the US usage. I knew that was a ridiculous statement. Even educated people can lack basic common sense about economics and numbers.

[@edtheplumber5307]

@@CollectiveWest1 He was correct. Until the 1990's a billion in the UK was a million million, which makes sense, while a billion in the USA was 1000 million which makes no sense. Nevertheless, UK adopted the US use during the Tony Blaire PMship era.

[@GARDENER42]

@@CollectiveWest1 He was right. The meaning changed some time after the mid 1970s. If you Google "a billion used to mean a million million" the first entry is the UK government one stating this.

[@ghostlightx9005]

I've been checking russia's own month P&L sheets and everything you said adds up. The are running at the highest monthly deficit in their history. Even if you assume they are cooking the books and making it look better than it is, it still looks extremely bleak. Their GDP is only up because government spending is massively up, this is NOT a good sign. They are just draining their welfare fund and thus converting that money to artificially positive GDP growth. There is no way back from this for their economy; they are already off the cliff. However, I think they can extend their economic life with 2 things though: further stealing from their population and russian companies via increasing tax even further, and of course printing more money. The former will cause huge unrest in the population and the latter will only work for a week or two until hyper-inflation brings it all crashing down. It makes for a fascinating study in economic meltdowns.

[@friedrichjunzt]

I agree -- and I was shocked about "The Economist" hyping the ruSSian economy. Shameful and one would think that the people working there are able to look behind the rising GDP gaslighting.

[@FadedRoseStoriesRussia]

They have a trap door, bringing in Right wing funds from the west. Christian Nationalists with their suitcases provide the cover for importing hard currency.

[@kasti89]

ok, so when dpes it crash down? And if not what then?

[@boblacks945]

@@kasti89 Each month the numbers get worse. It is the TREND that is the most important thing to watch.

[@ghostlightx9005]

@@kasti89 Impossible to stay due to amount of lies coming out of russia. When the money runs out basically. Money = their cash resource (welfare fund). Basically if you look at their P+L figures, they post a gigantic deficit every month. Even if you think they are cooking the books, the figures are still appalling and completely unsustainable long-term.When it runs out it runs out. And to answer your 2nd question about what if it doesn't crash down... It simply cannot be avoided UNLESS they alter their income/spending and reverse their monthly deficit. They either need to make a ton more cash every month than they currently do (impossible), or they need to reduce spending (very doable but they need to pick the war or their people).

[@diegoyanesholtz212]

I watched an old documentary about the Soviet Union from the 1980s, is exactly, things will only get better, and the future is bright for the USSR, I thought thinking in 6 years the Soviet Union wouldn't even around anymore, it had become history. Watching this propaganda documentary on KZbin shows how the Russian government lies. I think this subject should be taught I US schools, how to identify propaganda.

[@grahortarg9933]

Impossible. Once you teach children how to identify propaganda, the whole system will fall down. Everything around us is propaganda: religions, political discussions, marketing, even the guy in this video is engaging in propaganda somewhat. The whole human civilization is built on propaganda. I mean, really, do you want children to know that Jesus Christ is nothing more but a propaganda story from stone age times?

[@AtomSymbol]

I think you will like the following legendary speech by the just elected president of Czechoslovakia after the collapse of communist ideology in the country in the year 1989: "Václav Havel: New Year's Address to the Nation 1990 / Novoroční projev 1990 (English subtitles)".

[@ascra1693]

The US government would never do that since then people might notice all the propaganda the government feeds them

[@Ivan-ye8ud]

I was there, everything was in short supply, food, clothes, the country was collapsing, but then the USA and Europe came to the rescue, under the Provide Hope program, they delivered tons of food and medicine to help the citizens, instead of gratitude, only a few years later the Russian authorities they already propagandized anti-US and anti-West, that's how the Russians are, they can't do without an enemy!

[@rhondabailey9238]

Teaching without 'Critical Thinking' is only for passing tests, not for actual learning. ALL of us should Always be questioning *ourselves to be sure we really want truth. Because truth comes with responsibility...'Am I speaking up...doing the best I can...making the world, somehow better...'🦾💞💙🔱Of course i'm not perfect, but i'm not trumpMAGA or putinZomby 😆👍

[@davea691]

Every time Ukraine damages a Russian oil refinery, less high value Russian petroleum products are available to be sold to the world (i.e. less profit for Russian government)

[@ArnoSchlick]

Well, just what I thought over the last months, when guys told me Russia is so rich it must win the war - and I remembered, what everyone told me in 1990. What I now expect is history repeating, like after the Crimean war before 1856: Russia is bancrupt and gives Land for money. This time it is not Alaska given to the USA anymore, this time, it is far East around Vladivostok in Siberia given to China for money. That is what I really expect in the coming years. Greetings from Germany

[@Igors_mind]

China can't afford it also.

[@NotRelated-f1o]

@@Igors_mind they still have a large manufacturing capability and can produce a lot of cheap crap for Russia...

[@joekeegan-yc4nm]

Love it!

[@benguensche]

when's the last time germany won a war? Greetings from a fellow german

[@joekeegan-yc4nm]

@@benguensche The world wins when shitty Russia loses.

[@RMROTONDO]

They collect taxes too. However I am with you that they are in much worse shape than they claim. Cooking the books is a given.

[@ghostlightx9005]

Their tax income is also way down, by their own figures.

[@simonsweeney3947]

"Look, Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country," - J McCain

[@SuperAti15]

It's that kind of economy where they wanna have like 80% of ppl working in government paid sectors like army, army, army, military complex aaaand some administration maybe - then tax those people - and then pay them from their taxes XD. That's what is left after oil income is gone. Unfortunately oil income is only like 30% down now. So surely not gone yet.

[@RobertoEarnywho]

nobody has mentioned the skim off the top. Corruption is accepted and is rampant in russian society. The big wigs need that percentage to fund their lavish lifestyles , and a rainy day fund if they have to flee to Dubai, Montenegro or some such state if the proverbial shit hits the fan. And i bet they are skimming!! putin has in some speeches addressed this if one reads between the lines. Arrests have been made , primarily in the military circles , which lay outside the direct paths of putins inner circle.

[@Galatian1]

@@SuperAti15 The problem is their military spending has exploded to outpace their profit margins. Also, inflation is already up 40% so far this year.......and rising. The Russian ruble is almost worthless.

[@polishsausage648]

Great breakdown, cheers from Poland!

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Hello, Poland! A pity it's all fake! Russia is the world's No. 5 economy, and your hatred will not change anything to this.

[@pbreedu]

I see parallels between Russia and Venezuela. They lost access to Western and local expertise thanks to it fleeing. They also lost their access to parts and technology due to sanctions. Soon they couldn't keep pumping out much oil and things got really bad. Despite China's help they could not turn this around.

[@Lobos222]

I recommend you read a bit more about Venezuela if you think they are comparable, because they are not. Venezuela is in trouble because their used their oil wealth directly in their economy. This in turn shifted allot of their economic capacity towards oil and gas exports while the rest of the economy was not diversified (You want to make 100 000 in oil or 50 000 at a can factory?). With allot of wealth they also gained a huge trade deficit because they imported most other goods, obviously because they did not produce much more than oil and gas. Linked with subsidized fuel costs which meant that transporting goods domestically was artificially low (you could for example still make a profit on running a half full semi because low fuel cost, strategically this is BAD) and had a direct impact on cost of end consumer products. Added a government too willing to print too much while not looking at the national capacity usage and currency demand. Your nation is rife for issues when the oil prices eventually fall (ref economic theory called Dutch disease). While Russia is similar in that they are major oil and gas exporters (ca 64% oil and gas related export revenue, source OEC). They do not compare to Venezuela (95% oil and gas export revenue).

[@Judasz696]

​@@Lobos22264% is a lot

[@TheRealSykx]

Russia is pretty good at getting around the sanctions and US and European companies still value revenue and profit over Ukrainian lives. So they don't look too hard at the shipments going to Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, etc

[@gregorkielland5651]

❤ Dobry wykład, Mark is on the spot as always! The abysmal reporting in most media on everything Ruzzia since 1990's, man the amount of gazlighting

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

You swallow thi bcse you hate Russia, but there is no truth here. All silly sophistry.

[@peternolan4107]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 I think you invented silly sophistry. If you knew ANYTHING about the history of Russia you could never say anything that ludicrous. Yes, millions of people hate Russia. Just ask the citizens of neighboring countries and they will tell you they have been treated by Russia over the centuries just the way Ukraine is being treated now. Go back to your troll farm.

[@AIAudiobooks411]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 get lost, Botski.

[@andriidubinin955]

Thank you Mark! Have a great day too! 👍❤

[@newsgeekus1216]

Adding up???? The folks at Yale have also been saying, things don’t add up. In international trade there are people on the other side of the trades, Russia’s numbers don’t match their partners. You can also get satellite images and count how many ships are in ports. You can also get pollution maps to see the pollution and CO2 levels. You can see the military industrial centers are cranking, but you’re seeing a lot of reductions in other areas of the economy. More than expected. So lots of proof that the numbers are less good than announced.

[@winfordnettles3292]

As the Russian government continues to waste the national capital upon a war that they will eventually lose, the Russian people will be screaming for food subsistence next year at this time....... Maybe the hunger in their bellies will override the lies that they have been told by their criminal, terroristic madman leader Putin. Living the hell that is being created for them by their government may eventually lead to a regime and a paradigm change in Russia. However, someone has already pointed out that you just can't fix stupid.

[@karylhogan5758]

Correct

[@MattCardJacket7]

Critical thinking (with humility and objectivity) is the single most important component of true learning. Yet, we don't even begin to talk about it until post secondary education. This is a huge problem.

[@einfelder8262]

Critical thinking is a human attribute - you are born with or without it. If you are born without it, you may get finger dexterity instead so you can become an eye surgeon, for which critical thinking is not necessary (but useful). If you are born with the abstract reasoning attribute as well as the critical thinking attribute you can see the big picture of things, and be frustrated by your friends who live in a micro world as opposed to your macro view. There are tests that can determine which attributes a person has, and they are measured as a percentile of the population. I love music, but cannot play any instrument as I'm in the 5th percentile of musical ability, but I'm very high in abstract reasoning and critical thinking. It can be a curse, keeps you awake at night. In conclusion, people can learn skills, but can't learn attributes. A person with mechanical aptitude can fix your stuff, but you wouldn't want your mechanic operating on your eyes :)

[@rojodiver3344]

That's a load of garbage. Schools start teaching kids critical thinking from grade 1. It's not called that as the kid doesn't need to know the name of what he is doing before he can even add up, but it's there. When kids study things they aren't just asked to repeat what they heard in "reading comprehension" style but but questions focus on what they can infer from the reading. How they would solve a problem differently or what questions they would ask the historical figure being studied. Morons think that schools are shoving facts down kids throats and brainwashing them, most likely because they were fucking around themselves, or wishing they were somewhere else as a kid, to remember what it was like. You have no idea how much joy it brings to teachers to have kids engage with the critical thinking ideas that are asked, but so many sit there silently because there's the idea in the US society that it's "cooler to be dumb." In fact I just saw I have a grade 1 book in front of me called Reading Explorer and as soon as I opened it up I saw a heading: CRITICAL THINKING - "1. Can you think of other ways to tell if an animal is intelligent? Discuss with a partner and note some ideas." You are very wrong.

[@user-gr5tx6rd4h]

Very well said, sir - wise words! Same for @einfelder.

[@Prometheus-Unbound]

Most of the TV pundit (or youtube ones for that matter) analysis of economic issues is simplistic at best. Thanks for crunching the numbers here. Reagan and his predecessors bankrupted the Soviet Union with a cold war and a space race over 20 years - Putin is doing it single handed with a special military operation over 3 (and with some help from some very brave Ukrainians)

[@EconLessons]

Thank you Prometheus - Unbound you are correct a lot of KZbin is does not substantiate. I crunched the numbers and could not believe it, Russia is not solvent at least for the long term. I would not buy a Russian bond.

[@genrcflyer]

Reagan doubled the debt in his first term.

[@daniellarson3068]

@@genrcflyer Yes -the US debt - Then there was the Laffer curve and what his vice president called "Voodoo Economics." Some clarification regarding President Reagan is often necessary.

[@paulcheney3636]

Thanks for this information Im 54 and can remember when the USSR was strong until it wasn't abd it happened really fast Ive just had a look at your channel and you've got a new subscriber Fascinating stuff👍🇬🇧

[@Sir_Godz]

im 53, i remember it well enough. Ummmm whut are they saying on the news? And that was it... done and done

[@mertz9788]

I can’t nod my head enough with your logic. I also appreciate your ability to be open to challenges to it. The fact that logical challenges don’t arise are probably indicative of yours being correct and sound. Keep up the great work! 👍

[@EconLessons]

Be specific. How does it not add up?

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

@@EconLessons It doesn''t add up. At all. It;s amazing how easily people are fooled by such cheap sophistry. Whys can't they do their own research? A short visit to the IMF or World Bank websites would show how deluded this guy is. But no, they are ready to swallow any nonsense. so long as it is cleverly packaged..

[@Judasz696]

​@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 ok give me a direct link so we can see for ourselves

[@alanmanrick5593]

Appreciate your hard work keeping us informed. Slava Ukraini!

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

He's not informing you: he's reinforcing your hate-bred biases. None of what he says is true - as a little research will show.

[@alanmanrick5593]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001I’m open to that possibility. You got any facts to back up your claims, or you just gonna throw accusations around? Slava Ukraini!!

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

@@alanmanrick5593 try the IMF or WB websites. Plenty of facts there.

[@alanmanrick5593]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001I will, thank you.

[@andrewrigy8637]

Beggars don't deserve glory​@@alanmanrick5593

[@KPICW]

I'm more interested in reading "russia no longer exists"

[@mryouben]

Maybe not russia but the RF

That would be a good watch

[@xGoodOldSmurfehx]

More interested in reading "Putler is gone" and "First Russian freedom of the millenium"

[@somethinlike23]

It’d be amazing to see the far eastern “Russians” finally have their own autonomy. Putin loves his orthodox Christianity yet huge swaths of Russia was never Christian.

[@PedroFerreira-ze5yp]

it´s coming...

[@bartklein4362]

Hi Mark. Thanks for sharing your experience and knowledge 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇧🇪🇧🇪💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸

[@bogdan1968ful]

This is not knowledge it is pure lying in the service of propaganda.

[@oranges557]

​@@bogdan1968fulok bogdan 🤡

[@agffans5725]

Suppliers of bread, dairy, chocolate and beer in Russia have now informed retailers of impending price increases of up to 40% over the next month, the business daily Kommersant reported Thursday the 13. August, citing price-increase notices from at least 13 companies. The price hikes, slated for August and September, are being attributed to a combination of high inflation and expensive loans, as well as the rising costs of shipping, personnel, packaging and raw materials. A retail market source who spoke to Kommersant on condition of anonymity blamed the Russian Central Bank’s ongoing interest rate hikes for rising borrowing costs. The source described the price-increase notices as “atypical” and not driven by seasonal factors.

[@moffig1]

Such an underrated channel

[@michaelmichaels-tw7wd]

Fabulous Mark . i trust your numbers . ruzzian suppliers have told retailers to expect between 10 to 40% inflation of prices this month blaming the fuel prices

[@EconLessons]

Thank you, Michael.

[@richardbennett8522]

Cheers Mark.One thing the AFU have noticed in Kursk is how poor the Russians are in the territory they gained.

[@knopkaplay0507]

All you have to do to verify or debunk those claims is watch the videos from either the invading force or CNN, Hromadske, RAIuno). For starters, compare roads in Kursk vs Sumy. Take a look at the houses in Sudzha. Chances are, you'll realize AFU is just peddling AFU propaganda (as they should - it's wartime, propaganda is important. It's just not the most effective propaganda).

[@gtrdoc911]

The problem is if all they have known for centuries is authoritarianism then how is it possible to sow the seeds if democracy. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

[@knopkaplay0507]

@@gtrdoc911 we've seen your seeds of democracy, first-hand, and found them lackluster, thank you very much.

[@DementiaDon]

@@knopkaplay0507 lmao, 23% of Russians don't even have indoor plumbing. Russia is 55th in the world in GDP(PPP per capita), 120th in life expectancy. Who do you think you are fooling with this BS?

[@peternolan4107]

@@gtrdoc911 Exactly! Some people these days are contending that if Putin is overthrown, it will be a chance for democracy. These people know nothing about Russian history. Remember, when Russians are asked who were the greatest leaders in Russian history, Stalin and Ivan the Terrible are near the top.

[@mark314158]

I used to listen to 'The World Service of Radio Moscow' as well But on medium wave - as I was in London. It was modelled on The World Service of the BBC. Hours of fun...

[@Muchoyo]

They had a catchy signature tune though. Da daaa, da da da da da daaa da😅

[@geraldtraynor]

Me too. Nowadays, RT is an excellent source of information once you get past the censorship.

[@American-In-Mykolaiv]

Thanks you, Mark, for your professional opinions - I certainly believe you to be right on these issues and understand that in the near future the Russian economy will collapse, just like the Soviet economy collapsed. History repeats itself, and it does so at an ever increasing rate. Instead of 100 years, this time it will be closer to 30 years - the writing is on the wall, regardless of what the Kremlin says and how many times they say it. Slava Ukraini! Thank you, Poland for supporting Ukraine!

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Russia's economy is now no. 5 in the world. Go to the IMF and/or the World Bank websites and see for yourself. Sorry to disappoint you, but that's the truth. Russia's economy will not collapse - not in the near future, and not in the far future either.

[@craigalbrechtson5364]

Excellent analysis. For some reason this reminds me of a story. In 1905 tsar, Nicholas II was playing tennis when informed of the utter annihilation of the Russian fleet at the Battle of Tsushima. Not wanting his tennis match interrupted. He continued playing.

[@sjsomething4936]

Interesting, exactly like Putin who’s on a mini-tour right now, pretending that the incursion into Kursk is unimportant and the continuing destruction of Russian oil depots and airfields is not a problem. I’m hoping that history is indeed repeating itself, especially the outcome for Putin mirrors that of poor Tsar Nicholas II. The Nova Bolshevik movement perhaps?

[@xouxoful]

Well, given his ships had sailed for months just to get sunk in the far east, maybe a few minutes wouldn’t have changed anything there.

[@LoisoPondohva]

Almost certainly apocryphal, but he wouldn't be able to do anything anyways.

[@catladynj]

He's right. I feel for the good people of russia. Russia needs to be a free country.

[@BlaiseLikoy]

@@catladynj he’s stupid how many homeless in the us 🇺🇸 streets? Russians have no homeless people in their streets. USA is dying empire 😂😂

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Russia is a free country, Get out from under that pile of propaganda, and do your own research.

[@willmannn]

Russian political culture is deranged, so I don't have high expectations. They've never been able to get over their authoritarian, expansionist tendencies.

[@akiraraiku]

Will russia try democracy or just another system than checks and balances-less autocracy for once ? They could try the novgorod way

[@allengonch4067]

Jews were travelling in the desert for 40 years before the new generations grew up and shed the slave mentatlity. Russians don't have such desert to travel in. Even though it is desirable, I can't see the way they can grow out from their "we are small people" mindset. They envy each other, hate each other, steal from each other. Current government promotes illiteracy and drunkedness in young to make them even less able to think for themselves. I'm afraid it's a lost cause.

[@gerry4b]

There are exactly zero people who have ever assumed Russia reports accurate fiscal data. Except in the academic world?

[@ianlewis2813]

Companies are told to pay tax at the beginning of the year, not the end of the year..🎉…or pay a higher tax rate.😮

[@JohnHMarsden]

Thank you Mark…always informative

[@EconLessons]

Thank you John.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Well, in this case, it's disinformative. Why not fo your own research? Try the IMF or World Bank websites.

[@hkuiper100]

Very interesting. And to think that all that revenue has been burnt in the fire and hasn't contributed one thing to the nation. We really enjoy your videos. Always fascinating and from an interesting angle. The cover up by western economists has been unbelievable and disgusting.

[@Sir_Godz]

all the money burnt on the war vs even just investing in roads, railways and bridges which would have served them for a hundred years of increased productivity...

[@allengonch4067]

@@Sir_Godz Don't forget that Putin is not interested in serving the people - he only serves himself. He is the Tzar. His ambition is to bring ukranians to their knees or annihilate them, and it doesn't matter for him what cost will be paid for his toys. He already paid with 600,000 lives of his contry's citizens and with broken economy, but he continues to demand that his toy has to be broght to him.

[@icelake8153]

Lol The video is basically: "i know nothing but lets assume they're bankrupt"

[@oleksii_klochko]

LoL. Another ruzzian dislikes it 😂

[@j3i2i2yl7]

Consider also the long-term expense of the injured soldiers comming home. Russia promises healthcare for both Russian and foreign soldiers sent to Ukraine. By any count, the number of disabled veterans comming home from Ukraine will be very large.

[@EconLessons]

Yes expense are very high now with the on going geopolitical event. The Boyars want him out, but do not know how to remove him.

[@andresmartinezramos7513]

That has the very simple solution of walking back on the promise

[@sunnypedaal]

In the past disabled veterans were simoly neglected even transported to some remote place not to depress the other citizens . So paying , no Even saw movies of them disposing of killed soldiers , registingvthem as “ missing” not to pay the families in russia ..

[@twoninetwosevenone]

Clearly not understanding the regime . They will NOT spend a fortune on care for soldiers ... they will spend virtually nothing . Their ideal scenario is to somehow win this OPERATION and have NO ONE come ... that's to avoid the costs and to limit how much information as to what they have done !!! In the very beginning of the not-a-war ,,, they sent mobile crematoria to Ukraine to dissappear the dead and wounded . They don't what bodies comming back ... cheaper to have 400,000 missing than classified K.I.S.M.O.

[@user-gr5tx6rd4h]

Veterans coming home ... or perhaps not coming?

[@randalsaladbar]

Mark your sixth sense gives us goosebumps, and craving popcorn to this fomenting beautiful fin! Joe Blogs, is also saying it. 👍 Russian reserves are screaming from the insane squeezing pain. Yup, it feels like an early Christmas! The rubble will have no pulse, just like the yuan. Win, win! Maduro, and Cuba will succumb. My goodness, "Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it!" Haha Bueller agrees, true fruit is free I pray you continued divine favor in your race. Thank you for sharing

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

You'd like that, but it's not true. Sorry, friend. And mind your gallbladder: hatred is toxic.

[@randalsaladbar]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 Amen! Hatred is toxic, just say no to maga, and enabling apostates

[@greggerman7512]

My speculation is that the Russian economy is teetering, and that there are desperate measures taken on a daily basis to prop it up, including the sale of land to China, stolen resources from Africa, etc. There is taxation to add, of course, but I expect there are additional dark resources involved as well, including bitcoin and other crypto currencies. As a mafia state, they are likely heavily into crypto, and it has unfortunately shot up during the last year. On the other hand, they are bogged down in an expensive war, and that has to be draining the economy significantly. As expensive as it is to build an airplane or a radar system or a tank, that price has risen dramatically because the computer chips and other non-native technology has to be bought on the black market at a significant up-charge. Cheers to you and all those reading this long-winded comment. I will end with this joke that I made up about the Russian economy: RUSSIAN CUSTOMER: How much for Turnip? RUSSIAN GROCER: Two Turnips!

[@grahortarg9933]

This is not a good joke. Not a joke at all, to be honest. I would advice you to read a book or two on what constitutes a joke and how to make them.

[@isitanos]

Good joke, ignore the bot.

[@greggerman7512]

@@isitanos LOL! Thanks! I've sent the same joke on Twitter in Cyrillic to the Kremlin and other Russian government addresses off and on over the last year. They're probably tired of it!

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Your speculation is wrong.: - The Economist: "Vladimir Putin spends big-and sends Russia’s economy soaring." - Intellinews: "The Russian economy has overtaken Japan to become the fourth largest in the world in PPP terms (purchase power parity), according to revised data from the World Bank released at the start of June." - Xinhua: "Despite the unprecedented sanctions imposed by Western countries, the Russian economy has ... outpaced the global average growth rate." Sorry...

[@twoninetwosevenone]

That's a little misleading ... two turnips ... only if you buy a dozen ... and NO ONE needs that many TRUMPY'S .

[@Balance2097]

Thanks for the insight. I do have the feeling they are bluffing and are actually on the brink.

[@ArnoSchlick]

@@Balance2097 I also think, Putin is a Gambler. Only compare his reaction of last year, when Prigoshin went towards Moscow, with the Ukrainian Invasion in Kursk now: He simply has no plan how to react! And seems to be veeery nervous, indeed.

[@patrykczapski5292]

Russian Oil and gas tax is calculated on "expected" gas and oil sales based on $X price per barel where X is set in budget. X is BS of course coz not take into consideration od discounts they give to India or China. 2. National Welth Fund is now mostly (80%) filled with non liquid assets like stocks of national companies ( Gazprom, Aeroflot ect) absolute BS value on those.

[@EconLessons]

Patryk thanks you understand this National Wealth Fund as much to do about nothing.

[@peterwinkler4934]

For all of the rhetoric about how Western sanctions on Russia have been meaningless, at the end of the day, the Western sanctions freezing $300B+ in Russian currency assets in Western banks (that will never be returned to Russia) will end up proving absolutely critical to the demise of Russia's economy and war effort.

[@dmitryburlakov6920]

​​​​@@peterwinkler4934 that I would probably agree with, but where did you get that 80% number? The statutory documents set a cap of 40-50% on such type of investments (and the type of investments is limited, apart from 40% relative, $17B absolute cap is set for infrastructure projects under which Aeroflot was financed, plus accumulated debt is limited too), and only about $3B went to leasing buyouts, which for comparison is four times less than LPG investments. Corruption is not news but you would literally have to violate most of the rules for that number. Which everyone can speculate with, but is there something more than speculation you're referring to?

[@dmitryburlakov6920]

I also checked liquidity from reported data, went from 113B to 87B to 56B, which is evidence of reducing funds, but not evidence for composition, 40% is reported liquid from 60% in 2022. You don't need to be the brightest person in the room to see the paper tiger, but these 80% seem to be extrapolated from about two years in the future. This does not really relate to the video, when someone is bankrupt it does not matter what the composition of non-existent wealth is. It's more of a curiosity about where that 80% pops from, since it's not really secret data.

[@ejo1945eo]

I've had accounting, too. You're absolutely right! I wish everybody could see your video!

[@friedrichjunzt]

Thanks for your analysis -- you should tell those people working for "The Economist" that told us that ruSSian economy is not only doing fine but is booming. May be you can teach them some basic math?

[@EconLessons]

Thanks Fredrich.

[@Rio-by1eh]

Excellent CONTENT - 💯✅📈✨✨✨✨💫✅🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺

[@wojstube9359]

Hi Mark. Thank you for the interesting video. I think that if Poland had such a budget from fossil fuels, we would have already built all highways and expressways. Best regards from Pomerania in Poland.

[@akiraraiku]

I doubt it. Because fossil fuels are a factor of corruption and state financial autonomy from its people, thus enabling to disregard its economic health. The ME is a good example of this

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

Moscow horde´s war record :- 1856 defeated by Britain and France 1905 defeated by Japan 1917 defeated by Germany 1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states 1939 defeated by Finland 1969 defeated by China 1989 defeated by Afghanistan 1989 defeated in the Cold War. 1996 defeated by Chechnya 2022 defeated by Ukraine WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :- a) Hungary 1956 b) Czechoslovakia 1968 c) Moldova 1992 d) Georgia 2008

[@EconLessons]

Almost want to pin that comment or do a video on it. thank you sincerely.

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

@@EconLessons feel free , do it. + После 2-й Мировой войны 10-мильонная Белaрусь не досчиталась около 3-х мильонов своих жителей, однако околь 2-х миллионов были убиты еще до войны органами коммунистического НКВД. В Беларуси физически уничтожили 70 процентов всех белaруских писателей, убили ученых и художников. (Труппа Третьего Белорусского Государственного театра Владислава Голубка была арестована в полном составе. Почти все были расстреляны.) Убивали по национальному признаку. Ради этого был придуман ярлык "нацдем" (это значит -- национальный демократ, хотя такой партии не существовало). Этот ярлык приклеивали ко всем белорусам, которых сталинисты планировали уничтожить. В недрах НКВД была придумана несуществующая антикоммунистическая организация СВБ ("союз освобождения Белaруси"). Под придуманный фантом энкавэдисты проводили аресты, вели воображаемое следствие, допрашивали, пытали, судили, потом ссылали в paсeю и расстреливали невинных людей. После Рижского сговора в 1921 году Беларусь разделили между Польшей и paсeей. Границу раздела провели недалеко от Менска. Существовал тайный приказ НКВД уничтожать всё белорусское население вдоль границы. Российские аккупанты хотели сделать здесь безлюдную зону. Уничтожение осуществляли пограничные войска. Довереным лицам выдавали винтовку и лопату. Когда такой солдат-пограничник встречал в безлюдном месте (на дороге, в поле, в лесу) одинокого белоруса или белоруску, или ребенка, он стрелял человека, тут же лопатой выкапывал яму и засыпал труп. Такова была инструкция. Люди в деревнях не так боялись "человека с ружьём", как солдата с лопатой. (Эти факты опубликованы в белaруской печати в начале 90-х годов.) В 30-х годах на 95-99 процентов (практически полностью) была уничтожена (сослана и расстреляна) белaруская коммунистическо-партийная и советская администрация. Уничтожали даже директорат и хозяйственных руководителей. На должности убитых администраторов и коммунистических начальников-белорусов присылали “русских” из paсeии. “Русские” 🇷🇺 (так называемые "выдвиженцы") приезжали в Беларусь, занимали освобожденные должности, получали льготы, имущество, квартиры и первое, что они делали -- закрывали белорусские школы, переводили их на “русский” язык, чтобы их дети могли учиться, не обременяя себя изучением, как они говорили, "никому ненужного" белaруского языка. Таким образом оккупанты создавали в Беларуси "русскоязычное” население". Этноцид, лингвацид, мнемацид и геноцид проводзились большевиками одновременно. Уничтожение белaрусов рaсeйским НКВД продолжалось и во времена немецкой аккупации. В июне 1941 года в первые дни войны коммунисты расстреляли в тюрьмах и на этапах тысячи заключенных. Только в Брестской крепости, где была страшная тюрьма НКВД, всех арестованных ликвидировать не успели, часть из них разбежалась. Тем временем большая группа надзирателей и функционеров НКВД была заблокирована в крепости немцами. Они сидели там около месяца, пока не вымерли. Лет через 20 после войны коммунисты придумали легенду о "героической обороне" Брестской крепости. Обращает на себя внимание тот факт, что широкое советское партизанское движение было организовано только в Беларуси и частично -- на этнических белaруских землях, которые были в составе paсeии (Смоленщина, Брянщина). В оккупированой России партизанского движения не было. Почему? Да потому, что продолжал действовать план уничтожения белорусской нации. Москва, используя органы НКВД, втянула массы гражданского белорусского населения в войну против немцев, и этим подставила белорусов под немецкий удар. Необходимое дело борьбы исходило из коварного замысла и осуществлялось подлыми методами. (Сталин хотел получить двойную выгоду.) Энкавэдисты специально около белорусской деревени убивали немца или делали другую провокацию, чтобы вызвать карательную операцию гитлеровцев (которые обычно сжигали всю деревню, чаще всего -- вместе с людьми). Таким образом, кстати, в результате специальной провокации советских партизан была сожжена и известная Хатынь, которую коммунисты потом в 70-х годах разрекламировали на весь мир как типичную жертву фашистского зверства. В результате такой коммуно-фашистской совместной "работы" в Беларуси сожгли более 9 тысяч деревень. Поэтому к концу войны, в результате специальной операции НКВД, многие белaaруские командиры были посланы на смерть, отстранены от командования, убиты и репрессированы. Их места занимали русские, присланные из Мосвы, и верные энкавэдисты. Летом 1944 года, когда "красная армия" заняла Беларусь, “русские” провели мобилизацию в армию на белaруской территории. Десятки тысяч молодых белaруских мужчин, почти без подготовки, бросили на передовую линию фронта. “pусские” командиры поднимали их в ненужные атаки под огонь немецких пулеметов, не дав даже оружия в руки, или с винтовками, но без патронов. Они гибли тысячами, как трава под косой. А те, что бежали назад, попадали под пули энкавэдистских "заградотрядов". Впрочем, заградотряды стреляли и в спину. Так продолжалось уничтожение белaрусов на войне, руками немцев и “русских” одновременно. Как говорили коммунисты, "в борьбе за советскую родину". В 40-х годах русские вывезли в Сибирь и там замучили всех лесников и так называемых "кулаков" из Западной Беларуси. Вывозили вагонами, по разнорядках.

[@cybersecuritydeclassified4793]

I believe your take on this. The lack of critical thinking is depressing.

[@grahortarg9933]

your comment is what is depressing. You believe. And you blame others for lack of critical thinking. You. The believer. What else do you believe in? Fairies? Jesus Christ?

[@cybersecuritydeclassified4793]

@@grahortarg9933 Rich coming from someone in Mexico. Deal with your problems bud.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

You believe his take because you are too lazy to check the facts for yourself. Sorry, buddy: this guy is deluded.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

@@cybersecuritydeclassified4793 Come on! Mexicans have a right to express themselves - even when they talk nonsense, as in this case.

[@grahortarg9933]

@@cybersecuritydeclassified4793 what the hell are you talking about?!! Why suddenly Mexico?!

[@pascallaurent7120]

Hi Mark ! I am Huge fan of your work and channel :-) your style and wisdom reminds me of my first economy teacher when I was a student in 2000s. As for the revenues of you take the rosstat figures in relation to oil and gas it was my understanding that it was tax revenues from oil and gas majority held by the Russian government. But likewise to your statement on profit it always looked huge notably when you compare it with the latest financials posted by Gazprom for instance which has been posting losses. I would assume gas business is a net loss (because of pipeline issues etc….) so if all this cash only relates to oil business solely it again seems huge considering the remaining clients and the discount they are asking for. I agree with you that the wealth fare funds is either spent or frozen as no one is investing in Russia these days. I am still amazed that they continue to pay / are in the capacity to pay for all those military spendings but they sure are almost at the end of the story.

[@wollaminfaetter]

"By the weed".... freudian slip? Great video. Thanks.

[@VisioGuy]

I'm thinking the weed might already have been bought

[@ghostlightx9005]

@@VisioGuy There's nothing I'd enjoy more than sitting on the porch with this guy of an evening with a couple of huge doobies discussing the imminent russian economic collapse.

[@DonQuickZote]

I thought it was some cool new phrase fusing ‘by the way’ and ‘caught in the weeds’;)

[@mojopitdog]

I watch alot of Russian contributors. You are very correct in your opinion. More than opinion with the math. I know what you are saying is true. I've been telling others Russia is bankrupt but nobody listens. Great video.

[@A._is_for]

Oh man, VOA was big! Thanks for unlocking that memory...we'd listen almost every time at dinner

[@michaelmurvihill8813]

Hey, Mark, excellent analysis. I am my own thinker regarding economics and individualism, the effeciency of markets and etc. I am probably more in the Austrian school than its occultic competitors. Not quite a gold bug but hate fiat money, also. I love the scenery you backdrop your presentations with!

[@NinnaHappy]

The only person, who has some experience of sssr life, can truly understand what Russia build on.. A great pyramid of lies !! Amazing message! Thanks a lot !

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Here is a truly amazing message - another pyramid of lies:: CNBC (17/4/2024) - "Russia's economy is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies this year." FT (2/2//24): "The surprising resilience of the Russian economy ... has stunned many economists..." Business Insider (17/4/24): "Russia's economy is predicted to grow by 3.2% in 2024, outpacing all advanced economies, including the US, the IMF said." So, as you can see, this guy in the video is wide off the mark.

[@XxHaythamKenwayxX]

I'm no economist so when I see figures they go over my head more easily until someone explains it and breaks it down. And boy did this blow my little brain - it makes sense that revenue is not profit outright. And you're correct, no one seems to talk about it, not even economists. They seem to have also forgotten this. What Russia is spending on their illegal war and trying to prop up their own economy is miles more expensive than the revenue they generate from exporting oil and gas. Putin has been saving a lot of money in the past 14 years into Russian reserves and those reserves are dwindling fast.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Dwindling reserves? Well, the IMF, after revising its stats, discovered that Russia overtook Japan in 2021, to become the fourth largest economy in the world - in PPP terms. (Intellinews website, 4/6/2024) Expected growth:in 2024: 3.2%.

[@CheeseLovingGuy]

Please Do a collaboration with Joe Bloggs You are both on the money and both present differently. I think it would be a great listen. Just an open mic chat between yourselves on Russia

[@Phoenix-ov5gg]

And Igor lipsitz

[@londonsparrow9531]

Good analysis, but I think that you're being very generous to Russia, my estimate of their deficit is over 300bn.

[@knopkaplay0507]

Your estimate is as good as his :-)

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

@@knopkaplay0507 Both are false: INTERFAX, July 5: "Russia posted a consolidated budget surplus of 559.6 billion rubles in January-May 2024." That's USD 6,140B. SURPLUS - not deficit.

[@knopkaplay0507]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 that's kinda my point...

[@sgx5481]

The Russian war against Ukraine isn't helping any; I wonder how much they're spending on that --- it's a stalemate right now I believe. I remember I was in my early 20s --- in the 1990s ---when the Soviet Union collapsed at that time --- I kept hearing that the ruble was virtually worthless. The economy was so bad that experts kept saying that it was 50% worse than the American great depression; I kept hearing in the News that they started printing tons and tons of rubles causing hyper-inflation. And in the news, you saw long food lines; people waiting to buy food. Also, the Clinton administration at that time gave a loan to Russia (trying to help out). In some parts of Russia, people resorted to bartering for their goods. And the Russian population actually shrunk because people didn't want to have kids under such hellish conditions. Putin was around at that time and saw it all. I think he was part of the Kgb at that time. I don't think he wants Russia to go through that again. But then again, there's nothing he can do; if Yeltsin couldn't ---- then Putin certainly can't either. Shortly after that, I kept hearing about wars and rumors of wars occurring in some places called Yugoslavia.

[@lassikinnunen]

Theres the american great depression meals, then theres average regular 1970s finnish meals, then theres finnish 1990s depression meals, then theres 1970s ussr meals, then theres 1990s russian meals and then theres 1980s fall of ussr meals. 50% of the great depression would still be a great time in russia. Ever had gruel?

[@glareff]

Considering that US sees Russia as a geopolitical threat its very naive to think US ever wanted to help Russia in any way.

[@PDXDrumr]

I still have all my short wave radios. Awesome technology 😊

[@scottfarrar3463]

I see no flaws in your logic. I have also been confused by this, but I assumed my lack of understanding on such subjects was the reason. I have seen no one else bring this up. Well done!

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

You many see no flaws in his logic, but the whole thought process is based on faulty premisses. As regards Russia's economy, why not visit the World Bankor the IMF websites and do some reasoning of your own? And again, do a little thinking of your own: if Russia's economy was in a bad state as ths guys suggests, don't you think Bloomber, the NYT, the WaPo, etc,. and other enemies of Russia, would have been screaming about it?

[@plunderpunk2]

The Russian economy has been covered continually since 24.2.22 by the outlets you list.

[@jeroenschoot-l5h]

Well explained, Mark, thank you! I may add that RU is a major gold producer and has roughly 2500 tonnes of gold in reserve (outside the National Wealth Fund which is monetary). They use gold to do business with the UAE among others and it indirectly and partly supports the ruble. Gold enables RU to buy time and in the meantime they can squeeze out their citizens to keep the war economy running. This will not save RU from bankruptcy but it may take a little longer.

[@nancyhope2205]

I listened over and over to make sure I understood. That’s a stunning conclusion.

[@EconLessons]

Thank you Nancy.

[@richardjennison2159]

Brilliant! Thank you

[@simonshkilevich3032]

Mark please talk about Ukraine's economy and perspective in the future 3-5 years

[@AS-np3yq]

Ukraine is completely ruined.

[@EconLessons]

Simon, it has real prospects. I need to do a video on this. Thank, Mark

[@simonshkilevich3032]

@@EconLessons thanks Mark!

[@dickschlau3592]

Its bankcrupt since two years isnt it?

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

@@EconLessons Excellent! Russia's economy is collapsing (or has already collapsed?), but Ukraine's economy is promising - if not blooming... Please tell us more.

[@RichardRichiuso]

Excellent insight, Mark always happy to listen to You.

[@APW-ry2ok]

Sounds like you are spot on ,why is no one else pointing this out ? This is great news ! Keep up the great work.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

No one else pointing this out because no one else is as delusional as this fellow. There is no shortage of Russian haters in Western media, and if Russia's economy was as bad as this man claims, you'd have heard no end of it. And the same goes for the IMF, the World Bank, etc.: they're US-controlled, so have no reason to paint Russia's economy in brighter colours than it is. Go there ans see for yourself. Sorry to throw cold water on your hopes, but this man is lying to you. Russia's economy is now no. 5 in the world. Very sorry, mate, I know you hate to gear that, but it's the truth.

[@RobertRonda-o2q]

Great post

[@minnesotawyatt2821]

Thanks, Mark, for reminding us that Math reveals the truth when governments lie. This vid is timely in the sense, we in America have the same problems when it comes to blindly accepting some one saying something. The only solution is adding up what a person/organization does, and proclaims will show the truth, unless those folks need to blame people, places and things for their own faults. If a person cares about themselves, their family, and their country, they will do the math.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Math reveal the truth. But is this the truth - and VOA is lying? - : "The Russian economy in 2023 outpaced both the United States and Europe in terms of growth, increasing in size by 3.6% despite being subject to a wide array of powerful economic sanctions and being cut off from major global markets." (8 Feb 2024)

[@annaclarke7643]

You make my day Mark, when your videos pop up. I was thinking, how will Russia afford the Ukrainian reparations? Can a bankrupt country get away with paying?

[@AS-np3yq]

He shoild do an interview with Joe Blogs.

[@EconLessons]

Only while they print their currency and only for the short term as MV=PT the quantity theory of money. if they do not have access to normal debt market financing, they print. This is an anchor on the real sector and can not be sustained. Thank you Anna sincerely.

​@@AS-np3yqThat would be good

[@Rationalityislost101]

@@EconLessons How does cryptoexchange handle in this situation? Can they seek some form of foreign financial assistance through that and subvert the sanctions?

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Nankrupt? That may be your hope, but the truth is that Russia's is the world's fourth largest economy, and the only one growing among the major economies. Just google that, and you'll find out for yourself.

[@commandertopgun]

Thank you, Mark, it's true, I learned how dishonest Russians are. I too was confused about all the good news that the Russian Economy is doing so good, yet Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world. Your explanation sounds 100% plausible & true. Thank you, Mark.

[@timbuxton6839]

It costs Saudi Arabia $12 dollars a barrel to pull oil out of the ground, it costs Russia $24 dollars a barrel. Slava Ukraine, great work Mark

[@waltherbudman144]

Konstantine described the unfathomable rise of consumer credit card debt, which parallels what you say here. They need a China and Japan and Georgia event, where they want their lands back and are sick and tire of waiting for it. In Russia, thugs can come and make you pay credit card debt with muscle.

[@spdaltid]

Thanks Mark. I have to agree. There's too many questions on oil price capping, dark fleet trading and lack of demand for refined product. Who's gonna buy a Russian backed Bond? Something doesn't add up: And hell, I'm just a retired airline pilot

[@EconLessons]

Wow respect if you are/were a pilot.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

"Something doesn't add up"? Nothing adds up in this video, dear retired pilot. It is all lies. well, you may not be an economist, but if you visit the IMF or World Bank websites, you'll find all the data you need to come to your own conclusion about Russia's economy. Then you'll see how right you are to feel that "something doesn't add up".

[@user-abcxyz-xr2eg]

Just take a look at some numbers. Inflation is high, interest rate at 18%, the ruble is at 92 for one USD, unemployment rate at 2%, which means lack of working power. Putin just implemented a law which allows foreigners to immigrate to Russia. Demographically Russia is a nightmare too. People are dying much earlier than in other countries and too few babies are born.

[@336snake]

I knew it, thanks for confirming it.

[@paul.mcguinness6075]

Same is true for the USA, What is the concern? Everyone is bankrupt and they keep on spending. Can't trust any of them, foreign or domestic.

[@krisradjpaul278]

Gazprom running at a deficit first time in 20 years, 18% bank rate 2.6 unemployment.

[@mikelynch-zeroviewz2507]

India and China propping up Russian economy is the biggest slap to the face of democracies worldwide and the UN 😢

[@asan1050]

Thank you very much! Mark!

[@angelosasso1653]

I have to give credit where credit is due. Russia is doing a pretty good job at keeping the country from collapsing financially. Of course it is just applying small bandages to gaping open wounds everywhere but I do expect the country to be in complete ruin once the war is over. This war is INSANELY costly. Even ignoring the sanctions a war of this scale with this kind of losses for such a long period must wreck havic on their economy. Vietnam was putting some serious strain on the American economy back then and it was and still is the economic powerhouse of this world with an economic output dwarfing Russia in every way. The Americans lost about 50.000 people and it became a national trauma. Russia looses this amount of people in about one and a half month now. These are people that were meant to pay taxes and generate value now they fertilize the Ukrainian soil. There are just thousands of indicators that show, that this war is destroying Russia from within in a scale unimaginable. But just like the Soviet Union or other dictatorships it´s dedicated to project strength when in reality they can hardly keep themselves on their legs...

[@kyoungd]

Great observation. In my opinion, this war has ended Russia. The only question is whether they take Ukraine with them to their ruin or not.

[@bodasactra]

The U.S. war in Afghanistan cost an estimated $300 million per day for a 20 year total of $2.3 trillion. The U.S. deployed around 120,000 troops at wars height. Russia is estimated to have around 500,000 troops in Ukraine, in a much more intense war but, at a much reduced cost due to, Russian proximity to Ukraine, lower labor and production cost, and reliance on Soviet era equipment farms. I would guess the war is costing Russia about $150-$200 million per day and rising.

[@dickschlau3592]

That 2.3 trillion should be payed as reperations for the afghani population.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

I don't know about that, but the BBC wites that "Russia's economy will grow faster than all of the world's advanced economies, including the US, this year (2024)."

[@kerriwilson7732]

Ukraine may have shorter supply chains than America did with Afghanistan, but America had no damage to national infrastructure, & Russian equipment losses are high. 🇨🇦💕🇺🇦

[@bodasactra]

​@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 Math does not care what you or I know about it, like a stone on the ground, it just is.

[@ninozah]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001I see your arguments, I also like to be critical and devil’s advocate. But where is that growth coming from? It is practically all from government spending, according to the same sources. No new value is being created for the citizenry. Even Bloomberg just now wrote that this may be classical ‘growth’ where government pays somebody to dig a hole and pays somebody else to fill it up. I am also puzzled by the strength of ruble, which could also be a result of heavy government restrictions. Let me know, push back.

[@XLander7]

The terrifying thought is that they are the same species as us, showing what depth of moral fall human beings can potentially achieve

[@ellenripley4640]

Party on Garth!

[@tanyaroberson9629]

Garth! Lol!

[@dustinhamabata902]

Nah Garth had a Curly perm, Mark has a surfer do.

[@Sir_Godz]

indeed

[@kerriwilson7732]

He was inspired by the conversation with Alice Cooper.

[@AIAudiobooks411]

looks more like Iggy Pop to me...

[@ricksmithguitar]

Thanks for the clarification. We hear about GDP and we know it’s off.

[@EconLessons]

Yes, like under communist times every quarter, chocolate production is up 20%.

[@shawngrinter2747]

For a bankrupt country they sure seem to be doing OK

[@Rhotz-ix8ll]

“How did you go bankrupt?” “Gradually then suddenly”

[@glenn5328]

Think you might be slightly wrong in that thought.

[@matfax]

That's because states can't go bankrupt in their own currency. It's just the typical echo chamber rhetoric, saying what we want to hear. Ukraine wins tomorrow, etc. pp. The same applies to the military analysts who always exaggerate Ukraine's wins, luring us through hope.

[@glenn5328]

@@matfax delusional thoughts? Maybe listen more and speak less?

[@matfax]

@@glenn5328 What's your actual argument? Do you have any? Otherwise, I would appreciate if you didn't waste my time. Have a good day!

[@davidharrison5114]

Great PRESENTATION, keep up your fabulous efforts

[@bennyboy5374]

According to Inside Russia the 110 billion USD of those 140-150 billions is "investments" which was 300 billion Rubles(not USD) to save russian air companies and the remaining 107 billion USD is all like that= wither loans or infrastructure projects that they put up in the Wealth fund(it's not cash someone have to buy it from NWF). Your focused on the revenue and not the cooking of the wealth fund which is the big scam

[@EconLessons]

Profit or the bottom line is what you look at. The NWF is not liquid.

[@bennyboy5374]

@@EconLessons yes and far less liquid then it looks as much is just loans and can't be turned into cash as someone need to buy it from NWF.

[@scisher3294]

I love it when predictions/analysis are evoked using the given numbers. It’s like the polar opposite of politics. Thank you Mark 🤓😎

[@GronTheMighty]

Oh you best believe I'm sharing the vid Mark! ;D

[@nswgb69]

Great video. China stopped taking the Rubble a while ago as payment.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

So? According to the website Intellinews, "Russia overtakes Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world in PPP terms."

[@RiseAbove75]

On top of their illogical bottom line, I'm confused how the Ruble has remained so stable when the infrastructure of their primary source of income has been under attack consistently for months. Not to mention recently being invaded themselves. Yet the value of the Ruble has held. The stability of the Ruble makes absolutely no sense at all, it seems to be a total lie.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Your question is intelligent. Your "total lie" comment is not intelligent. When a curreny isstrong and stable, it means the uinderlying economic parameters are string. Ergo, this guy is delusional.

[@RiseAbove75]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 The currency is not being traded on the open market like all other global currencies. There is no meaningful public Data to back up the strength of the currency. It doesn't appear to represent a truthful view of their current economy, hence the over simplification of saying it seems like a lie. It obviously still has an income but the loss of exports into EU has not been replaced by Chinese and Indian markets. The Ruble has been very stable for months. It's not moving like other currencies based on realistic economic factors... such as being at war, losing significant oil infrastructure and losing it's own territory to name a few. It doesn't seem feasible that the current inflation and interest rates are able to help the ruble remain so stable for such a long duration given all of the events. Obviously they had a war chest but even basic math indicates it will be running out in a couple years at best... money that would run out that much quicker if it dropped 20% or more... which the vast majority of currencies would experience in the same situation. I thought calling it a lie would keep it simple and make sense. I didn't think anyone would care to dive into the details, sorry.

[@richardmanning4090]

Joe Bloggs explains this. Basically, no one trades in roubles, Russian exports are mainly in Chinese yuan. What’s left is easy enough to manipulate by the authorities. Understood that the black market for dollar exchange is two to three hundred to the dollar.

[@victor.ivanov]

@@richardmanning4090this is nonsense, there is no need for the black market for USD because you can go to your local bank and buy USD. There is a markup above CBR official exchange rate, usually around 2-3₽

[@LoisoPondohva]

​@@richardmanning4090 what black market? A genuine question on what do you mean. Like secret cross-government deals, some illegal investment deals? Because for ordinary citizens, a dollar is +-95 rubles right now.

[@thelastlostcause4148]

I really hope people start to pick up on this more. The clock is ticking, Ukraine and its allies just need to hold on. It's always darkest just before the dawn. Great presentation

Thanks mark

[@daniellarson3068]

Your numbers are probably good. However, I have a different viewpoint. Russia is a huge country. There are things they do not produce. However, they do produce the basic stuff that people need. They grow their own food. They produce their own fuel. Even today their infrastructure seems to be largely of that produced in Soviet times. They've been poor since the time f the Czars. I'm just saying that they can "get by" for a long time on what they currently have. People in the Middle Ages survived without importing and exporting a great deal to foreign countries. Much of the world was isolated for most of history. There are many remote villages in this world that are insular. I presume there are many in Russia. They lack indoor plumbing. Perhaps, this lack of imports may affect the centers of Empire, Moscow and St Petersburg, far more than the people in the hinterlands. When the de facto Czar asks for bodies to die in war, they will respond as they have for centuries.

[@j.p.ijsblok5304]

1) Demographics says no. 2) You can't win a 21 century war with barely 20 centuries means and tactics.

[@MysliusLT]

They don't cook the books. A single company can cook the books, there's no point to cook the books. Trade is bilateral, you can backtrack it. You can't hide the information, Real wages in Russia increased by 7.6% in 2023? Did it? It did. In Poland it grew only by 1.1%? Did it? It did. Russia's revenues are getting high? Are they? They are. Countries do not "cook the books" sometimes they hide the statistics, but there's 0 point to cook it. Russia's external debt went from 500b in 2022 down to 300b in 2024. Yet again, debts are bilateral. What financing by bonds are you talking about? There's no need to issue bonds. Russia's government debt to gdp decreased in 2023. 411 billion where did you get this number from. You misunderstood something, here's a reference for you: *A World Bank report released Wednesday puts the cost of Ukraine's recovery and rebuilding from Russia's invasion at $411 billion over the next decade. You said: they are running: 266 billion dollar deficit. Seriously? I mean... Seriously? That's such a unrealistic number that i don't even want to comment on it. 285 billions was Russia's TOTAL IMPORT, that's the size of it. For anyone who's good in numbers they understand that is straight up bs. You:"If my math is wrong, tell me". Me:Yes. You should double check the numbers: Federal budget spending last year reached 32.4 trillion rubles (380 billion dollars) The federal budget revenues in 2023 amounted to 29,124 billion rubles (350 billion dollars) What 266 billion usd are you talking about? That's simply not realistic even if you cook the books. Let's compare: 2023, Poland ran 2.5% deficit, U.S. ran 6.7% deficit. Russia ran 2% deficit, and is planning to run 1% deficit this year. They are not funding this war by issuing bonds or increasing government debt. This war is more like: mobilize some cannon fodder, drop them $1,792*500000*12 = 10 billions USD in salary and that's it. Weapons? they don't import, even if they do import some components, it's miniscule. THERE'S NO EXPENSES. Definitely not 266 billion you're talking about. Hyphotetically, let's say Russia does spend 266 billions annually, and let's say Russia has 500k troops. 266 billions / 500k = 532000 USD per soldier. Basically every soldier in Russia gets a tank :D annually :D Sure.... Or 10 Teslas. KZbinr's logic - they do spent hundreds of billions of dollars annually and is going bankrupt, but soldiers don't even get food or clothes. Where's the logic? Your next reasoning is probably they steal 99% of the funds. I mean... cmon. I will convert this number to iskander missiles: 2M$ each, 266b / 2M = 133000, Here's the data: "By the end of 2023, Russian forces launched about 7,400 missiles" assuming all were iskanders, the total price is only 14.8b. Not to mention that majority of this money comes back to the budget. Lao Tzu - 'There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.

[@helgeschneider9069]

you did not understand the point.....ussr or in my case gdr economy was very well all the time, till the collapse. also in the 80th some people believed the russian numbers. but it turns out, that it was all fake. if a economy is on its own, it is difficult to double check the numbers.

[@twoninetwosevenone]

Your logic is impeccabl ((( ly insane )))

[@jimhoward6584]

Russia will come out this situation however it ends???? in much better shape than most folks realize.

[@oleopathic]

Gabdulina has much answering to do to her boss. Thanks, Mark.

[@kirstenberg4869]

Hi Mark, you are just great and I am sure you are absolutely right in your calculations and it sounds like total common sense, but can't Russia just go bankrupt now so we can stop the terrible war?

[@EconLessons]

8.3% is the profit margin in integrated oil and gas companies so people quote a revenue times it by .083 and that is the profit. It all does not add up even my 75 billion is a lot considering the inefficiencies etc. They can bluff for a little while longer. I would love to see it all end. I might sometime do a video about visualizing peace. I know it is not as concrete as economics but it might be worth it.

[@geoffgill5334]

​@EconLessons and am sure it would be of great interest to those of us who follow you!! Good on ya

[@TheTabascodragon]

Russia can (and will) cook the books to hell and back but that's only scratching the surface of their long term problems. Russia, like many industrialized countries, was facing serious demographic problems even before the war started. This war is burning through their young male population VERY fast, and a very large chunk has also fled the country. Brain drain is often discussed as a result of this but it goes so much deeper than that. They're running out of men for virtually every type of skilled and unskilled labor. Their infrastructure, which really wasn't great in the first place, is completely falling apart without workers to maintain it. Energy, transportation (particularly rail, their rail network is getting very bad), basic civilian utilities, internet, etc is all going to shit. This is completely unsustainable and they'll be feeling the effects of it long after the war has ended

[@pavelzak9303]

My estimation was that ruzzia will deplete its foreign currency savings on end of this year, then there will remain only gold to sell...

[@billkranz8035]

Then Putin loads the gold on his train and heads for North Korea.

[@mabussubam512]

Gold is the one and only currency that isn't affected by inflation. FIAT money is all fake. It has no actual value.

[@kurtsoderberg]

Loads of diamonds, but start selling those will collapse the market.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

A pity it's not true. Take care of your liver: hatred is a poison.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

@@billkranz8035 I fear for your pancreas: hatred may give you cancer in that organ.

[@lovetrees1423]

Thanks, Mark🌳💖🌳💖🌳💖🌳💖🌳💖🌳💖🌳💖🌳💖🌳💖