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Russia will use nuclear weapons regardless of whether the West arms Ukraine. International relations expert Samuel Ramani writes about this in his column for The Telegraph .
He recalled that over the past few weeks, Western countries have given permission for Ukraine to use NATO-class weapons to strike targets on Russian territory. At the same time, the “escalation” of the West will not determine whether the ruler of the Russian Federation, Putin, presses the red button.
"Russia's stoking of the nuclear threat has provoked two opposing reactions in the West. The first is that Russia's nuclear threats should be easily dismissed. This argument is based on the claim that Russia knows that the use of nuclear weapons would lead to a large-scale conventional attack by NATO on its forces in Ukraine or a nuclear strike in response. On the other hand, Russia may be tempted to use nuclear weapons if NATO escalates too much,” the author notes.
In his opinion, both arguments are wrong: there are realistic scenarios in which Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or, less likely, against a NATO country. At the same time, Russia's decision will depend on the behavior of the West.
"Because Russia's nuclear logic is not inherently reactive, the West should not be afraid to give Ukraine the weapons and flexibility it needs to win the war. Allowing Russia to gain more territory and Putin to believe that NATO will capitulate in the face of a nuclear attack is the worst possible outcome for West and Ukraine,” the expert sums up.
In May, former President of the Russian Federation and current Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev commented on the Russian nuclear exercises . According to him, Western leaders do not want to think logically in the context of the fact that assistance to Ukraine with manpower “will entail the direct entry of their countries into the war,” to which the aggressor country “will have to respond.”
Medvedev “scared” the West with a “world catastrophe” and noted that “Kennedy and Khrushchev were able to understand this more than 60 years ago, but those who have seized power in the West do not want to understand it today.”
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