Russian Economic Game Ends

If game theory is applied to the Russian Economy, the results display a timeline with a definitive trajectory. To some extent, we are just watching history unfold ex-ante. Let me know if anyone sees modifications to this model or conceptual framework. The objective, as always, is to make the world a better place and understand current geopolitical events.

[@andrewc1236]

we will know Russia is desperate when they send in Sensei Steven Seagal

[@TheFrewah]

There was a video with a Steven Seagal inspired guy that people called BlyatMan

[@AndrewBenke-hd3yc]

LMAO. Sensei. There is a whole channel dedicated to Fat Seagal.

[@cavetroll666]

:O

[@brianmartindale2221]

Seagal belongs in a wax museum, though it'd probably stress the world supply of wax to make it so

[@bro72232]

The wax would probably melt. Sensei is a moisty pig​@@brianmartindale2221

[@jojor9766]

Here is an interesting fact that shows how desperate the Russia government is for money. In Russia there are no local police. All ordinary police forces are part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The police in say Moscow are just the police that are assigned there by the ministry. Recently the Minister of Internal Affairs was called to testify before the Federation Council. The Council is roughly like the U.S. Senate. He was being questioned about the giant rise in street crime. His response was that the ministry did not have the resources that it needs. He said that because of low salaries that there was a 15% vacancy rate in the ministry. The police are the first line of defense for the regime. When a police state scrimps on the police, then things are dire indeed.

[@MattBellzminion]

That's socially significant, but not wrt regime security, at least directly. That's ensured by other agencies, including the National Guard [Natsgvardia] and their elite "Black Berets" OMON units (roughly akin to SWAT teams, but way more prone to goonery), the FSB, the president's & prime minister's security service [SBP], and Putin's own PMC [private military corp.]. But yeah, if crime continues to rampage out of control outside of the Moscow-St.-P. metro area, then disgruntlement with the Kremlin will rise even more than it already has.

[@taniadavenport2939]

Inspite of all this… police lacking … try to find something similar to Kensington, Philadelphia… How long and far would take for Russia to fall to those standards of the greatest country in the world with the biggest debt too ( presumably taken for prosperity of USA citizens).

[@christopherfritz3840]

That's.. SO.. depressing..

[@dinismantas7265]

There is a video in which the guy who is in charge of car production is pleading with the Minister of the sector to produce at least the stearing wheels in Russia. Everything comes from abroad. No production, they just assemble the cars. The face of those guys was priceless. One of the big factories in the copper sector, was announcing that it was going to build a factory in China. They have huge problems to export due to sanctions. The list goes on. The new changes in the Ministery for Defense are, in the oppinion of some, a sign that Putin is more worried now on the possibility of a coup. He is trying to remove all those regime gangs/clics from positions of power that could allow them to challenge him. The new Minister is an isolated guy that is loyal to Putin. The FSB seems to be more in control now and many high ranking officers from the Armed Forces have been arrested. That includes people such as Popov, one of the few that showed a level of competence and is well respected by his men.

[@philiptilden2318]

When you say 'no local police' I assume you mean that there are no police who are accountable to local authorities such as cities or oblasts etc, rather than there being no police whatsoever?

[@JimPfarr]

I've done a lot of gaming as a hobby, and a bunch professionally as a retired USAF officer. I can't see how this application of game theory is anything more than an Excel spreadsheet comparing inputs and outputs. I don't disagree so much about the conclusion but the logic is a big stretch. Still a good video so thanks for the effort.

[@justinjohnson9627]

I guess most games could be abstracted to an excel sheet-- blackjack and poker come to mind. In this case I think he's just pointing out solely the Russian side of the board, and only casually mentions the Ukrainian side, in the context of consistent European aid and variable American aid.

[@I_Have_The_Most_Japanese_Music]

What do you think the outcome on the ground in Ukraine will most likely look like? I've heard that whoever holds the stuff that Russia now occupies will find it to be a huge economic drain.

[@alexhubble]

Could it be modelled as a game? What would you use? Genuine question.

[@MrTiti]

@@alexhubble either colonization or Tetris 2

[@user-xp5id1kh4r]

"comparing inputs and outputs"... bruh, what thefk do you even think models are? LOL

[@alldecentnamestaken]

Not talked about enough: most of the VKS airframes are old and were only designed for 2,500 hours and started the war with 1,600 hours on average. UK Intelligence estimates that the VKS “lost” about 65 planes to wear and tear in 2022 and 2023. That’s in addition to physical losses.

[@user-od7qt7hy6o]

Британская разведка😂😂😂как там с авиацией у Британии, расскажи? 😂А у сша? Чего это опять f35 упал? 😂

[@FlyingSofa28]

​@user-od7qt7hy6o euro fighter typhoon for jets, pumas and chinooks for helicopters. When did an f-35 fall?

[@user-od7qt7hy6o]

​@@FlyingSofa28ты как то выборочно новости изучаешь? 😂

[@TheFrewah]

💯 right and not mentioned enough. Also true for tank barrels that fire crazy amounts of shells

[@frankdevo5715]

@@user-od7qt7hy6o careful, one day you may end up on the frontlines, meat.

[@stefanw6665]

Only thing i'd add is that china has the capability to prolong this conflict way longer if it decides that it cant allow russia to fail. Or thinks its beneficial for them to rack up the cost for western countries/distract them from taiwan. they have allready proven they are willing to support russia, and could gain huge amounts of ressources if russia is desperate enough to hand them over to them, which might become a possibility if the frontlines deteriorate

[@DavidAllison-qs8wn]

China is playing for China. The day that the U.S., E.U. delivers a threat of 'secondary sanctions', China will abandon the Russians. Their economy only survives if they export to western countries. It would crash in months if the west cut them off. But then we'll have to wait for a new iPhone or plastic lawn furniture. Boohoo.

[@Strideo1]

That's economically and politically risky for China though as the West could sanction them.

[@JesterEric]

Sanctions on China would absolutely cripple the west. Inflation would be out of control and the stock market would crash

[@ALFarrell-kv6ok]

Blinken reportedly told the Chinese one month ago that America would shut off China's access to global banks if duel-use products continue to be exported to Russia. The ability of the West to diminish Chinese exports to the free world is something that gives the Chinese reason for caution. Meanwhile, Russia is becoming a Chinese vassal.

[@h.alfred5320]

Nope , China will not help . "Chinese multinational Alibaba, the owner of the online shopping portal AliEpress, has stopped accepting payments in rubles and no longer allows the delivery of orders to Russia, Russian business newspaper Kommersant reported on May 28."

[@anon2645x]

This is why I love KZbin sometimes. I get recommended this completely out of the blue, and it's fascinating.

[@zawadix9574]

Wow me too lucky to be alive in 2024 all the way from Tanzania.

[@MuzzJoob]

😂

[@denniswhite4446]

I agree - it IS fascinating isn't it !

[@user-od7qt7hy6o]

Пошурудил стрелочкой по карте, победил Россию. Вот это цирк😂

[@asdfka1]

В камментах еще больший цирк

[@user-od7qt7hy6o]

@@asdfka1 вот это я заметил.

[@awsysumer3814]

Good that you understand English or just watched it. We don’t care about your reaction to the video, our goal is you to understand the content. Like it or hate it, it’s up to you. Freedom of speech😉

[@user-od7qt7hy6o]

​@@awsysumer3814так самое главное, говорить правду? А вы лжёте😂лжёте и лжёте😂

[@igor73g]

Многие хотели бы увидеть конец России, но пока им удаётся только подержать его за щекой.

[@kefaspshafuda604]

Such economist will put our country in huge risks...😢

[@carolgebert7833]

I think the biggest risk to Ukraine is not lack of production but lack of troops. Maybe add population factors to your game setup.

[@aivarasdarulis]

True, but this is where, the Europeans, come into play. Today it was officially announced numerous EU+Canada nations are "seriously considering" to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine. Not as NATO, but as individual countries. Armies are like 70% logistics and support roles, and only 10-15% are infantry (the ones who you see in those scary Telegram videos where they storm the trenches and conduct fighting at 5-100 metres). Another 20% are artillery, airforce, mechanised brigades (tanks and IFVs etc). So this will be massive help. And now it is almost put on paper that western half of Ukraine will be covered by neighboring European AA systems, so that ones operated by Ukrainians can actually focus on fighting and on frontline duties rather than mainly focusing on civilian objects; we are forcing Ukrainians to fight with one hand tied to their backs by us providing either very little armaments or in little dosages, or very late - due to our leaders lacking balls. It costs hundreds upon hundreds of lives (both Ukrainian and yes, also Russian) and it is not who are paying the price.

[@fretworka3596]

russia loss rates are far higher than Ukraine over the past year. Accurate troop loss numbers are difficult to obtain. Even looking at photographs, you can't count the bodies easily , but you can count tank losses; APVs etc. They're big and mostly identifiable. In Avdiivka, ruSSian equipment losses ranged from 8-10 to one, up to 20 to one compared to Ukraine. That's similar to what's happening now. Only the final phase of withdrawal led to high numbers of Ukraine losses compared to russia. Ukraine has a strategy of bleeding russia dry. For Kharkiv, they led a fighting withdrawal, laying a trap for russia, then springing the trap. russian losses for May are disastrous for putin. Within russia, domestic inflation is rampant. Shortages are next. They will soon have to choose between fuel for the military, or fuel for planting crops. The military will win that battle, but hungry soldiers don't fight very effectively... @aivarasdarulis' comment also applies. russia is f*&^ed, the question is how long before they break.

[@maddskillz5177]

​@@fretworka3596its not true. Russian losses are much less then ukranian. Human wave attacks is a myth, russians are very smart.

[@tlanimass952]

@@fretworka3596 The Russian losses are greatly overestimated. Remember when everyone said in January that Russia was delaying mobilization until after the Putin's elections in March. We are already in June and Russia still hasn't even mobilized yet! Meanwhile Ukrainians brought down the age of mobilization to 25 and are trying to forcibly conscript people on the street and withhold passports from people that are abroad. The reason why now Western countries are talking about actually sending their soldiers into Ukraine, is because internally they know about the acute shortages and Ukrainian manpower losses. We have no idea about the real number of losses on both sides, but so far what we can see and verify is that one side is struggling to do troop rotations on the ground or build up sufficient reserves, and it is not Russia.

[@samfkt]

Gotcha...... either Ukraine is lying or both of them are lying in this "information war". Thing is, during 3-4 months of Invasion the Russian officials stated that they had no losses, really? No losses in around 4 months since the invasion? Wtf? Couple of months later they stated that they had only about 6000 losses (yes, you read it clearly, with just 3/three zeroes), then later various sources from west and Russia talked about 20 - 50 thousand losses (more or less, both sides). The newest conservative reports saying around 100.000 losses, and some say 200 - 300 thousand losses and more (especially Ukraine itself about Russian losses). Most of them dont tell what they mean by "losses", how much deaths, how much wounded soldiers. Now, if what Russians are saying is true from the beginning or close to it then they sure dont have losses like 200 - 500 thousand but at the same time they are spreading the news that Ukraine is out of soldiers, they said it 1 year ago, they said it 6 months ago and they say it constantly the last 3 months or so...... basically that they would win in couple of months, up to year, not years. Now, you tell me....... if they that much succesful (low amount of losses) and that Ukraine is doing bad, then why didnt they win already, what are they waiting for? If they have the capacity to occupy the whole Ukraine, because remember.... you cant denacify and demilitarize the whole Ukraine if you dont occupy the whole Ukraine, then why are they waiting and not winning this war if they can do it easily? Especially considering that the west is very slow at supplying Ukraine with weapons and equipement, with dozens of rules on how and where to use specific weapons..... its no logic for Russians to wait, they should have use that in their favor and beat them up already, not? OR OR OR this is all a lie, maqybe its a lie that Ukraine lost 100 - 500 thousands soldiers (variuous soources), maybe they lost max 50 - 100 thousands.... and if that is true, then Ukraine can fight for several years from now.

[@Kenneth_James]

Holy moly! He has a house! He doesn't live outdoors.

[@roberthewko6715]

@@williamjones9662 Putin the sad clown is dancing Russia's last dance....

[@shinji1264]

@@williamjones9662 P00tin the sad clown dancing to war again, all because the soviet union was and always will be a problem as long as it exist in any shape or form. They infected north korea and china soon the world will be at war, all because of evil russia. A fossil that should've been set free after ww2. Stalin was just as bad if not worse than hitler.

[@frankgerlach4467]

@@williamjones9662 It was a certain "Nuland" who said she would "f**k the EU". Properly done, eh ?

[@SebHaarfagre]

@@williamjones9662 If "Europe" was "Dancing to war" at this point, Muscovy would lie in ruins and its soil would be burnt and salted. If _RUSSIA_ keeps it up, that's where we'll end up at. If you're part of the Solovyev/Vatnik circus 🎪 I'm sure they'll love another self-deprecating clown 🤡🤡

[@AWaBfantasy]

@@williamjones9662 Europe would love to stop dancing, but Russia is not allowing it. So here we are.

[@vaxrvaxr]

How can this even hope to be useful if it's based on heavily incomplete information?

[@spacecadet35]

It turns out that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was based on incomplete information about the Russian military. Everything in life is best guess. And this is best guess.

[@justinjohnson9627]

Rather than prediction, this game is illustration.

[@landontesar3070]

Fun with math. Add a variable. Predict it's effect. Give it a relative weight and a probability distribution that vary over time. Watch the numbers change a manager once suggested my simulations were mental masturbation. Took a long time to interpret that

[@darylrainham8962]

As any data analyst knows: Garbage in, garbage out.

[@TheFrewah]

That certainly applies to substandard nk shells. You can google to find more

[@nick-oi1xf]

Exactly, where's this guy getting his data?

[@RetiredInThailand]

What??. You think The Ghost of Kyiv would lie about how many Russian ‘squares’ Ukraine is destroying every day?

[@vazeuax]

@@nick-oi1xf from his weed-induced hippie dreams I guess

[@jhutfre4855]

@darylrainham8962 This so makes me laugh. Speaking honestly i was never into that data collection, data driven... Statistics hide so much. I find it useless.

[@dzcav3]

Two points 1. Maybe this is why Putin put an economist in charge of the Ministry of Defense 2. You could get a lot of this information by watching the updates from Covert Cabal YT channel. He uses satellite photos of the major weapons storage areas in Russia to document the draw-down of things like tanks and artillery pieces. He estimates Russia has 1.5 to 2 years left before it runs out of equipment.

[@misterserious3522]

Marxist economist is nothing more than a pirate with a degree in Piracy. Marxism is based on theft from the masses and exploitation of them by narcissistic selfentitled undeserving elites.

[@angelnum18]

Damn dude, 1.5 - 2 years of more conflicts is a lot people dead :(

[@hansleijonmarck9768]

1986 I was as a tourist in USSR and another tourist, a businessman who made some business with Soviet said "They are like children when it comes to business. Even there money are small like toy money. It will collaps soon." Nobody agreed with him (not even Soviet "experts" in the West.) but 5 years later it was a fact. I feel the situation now is the same. Russia will lose in Ukraine and will collaps as a consequence of it. The question is only when and exactly how. Likely a Black-Swan-event like Pregusin coup.

[@andyhurrell]

In 1990-1992 I worked in Istanbul with a mildly-distinguished Russian classical orchestral conductor. He was an OK kinda guy, except when he was teaching students - then he became brutal. (He also drank too much.) As soon as he could afford it, he bought himself a huge BMW. He didn't really need a car, but he told me that he wanted to own a big car "just once" to see what it felt like. After driving it for a couple of weeks, he pranged it (which, to be fair, is easily done in Istanbul) and that was the end of that. Slava Ukraine!

[@baguiobyben12]

It started my friend. The fact that Putin is now sweeping his own house of possible rebels is the proof. He’s even getting rid of his lifelong friends. When his so called, “special military operation,” failed, is when everything started going downhill. There’s no longer a scenario where he wins. He’s going to lose regardless of winning or losing in Ukraine. The sacrifices made far outweighs the gains and it’s irreversible.

[@yoxat1]

You're dreaming. Russia and China working together will end the Empire of Lies.

[@jettrd_utilitychnl4230]

I’m pretty sure you’ll be very disappointed))

[@animal11011]

Thanks for adding the dimension of game play. I am sure you will have fun expanding on this and educating your followers on the Game Play analysis.

[@jumanji5239]

So much wishful thinking in the comments 😅

[@Matheus.95]

😂😂😂😂

[@TehPwnerer]

The Russians are being attritted at 48 units production every six months with a total production capacity of 11. Those old Soviet stockpiles run deep they aren't bottomless

[@GhostScout42]

at least they make enough artillery shells. also, if not now, when use the stockpiles?

[@justinjohnson9627]

@@GhostScout42 yeah they are making the shells. I haven't heard that they are any better at making new barrels.

[@GhostScout42]

@@justinjohnson9627 didnt they lose the majority of barrel production in 1991? i have heard that this is a big issue for them, you would think that they would have fixed this with an economy as large as thiers

[@NLTops]

@@GhostScout42 "Large" economy? The only thing large about Russia is its territory. They don't have enough people to exploit all their resources. Their economy is the size of Mexico (nominal) or Germany (PPP), both of which have less territory and lower populations. That's why GDP per capita is equivalent to Kazakhstan (nominal) or Malaysia (PPP). They're a very unproductive country, economically. And it won't be getting any better for the next 30-50 years, because Russia is currently spending roughly 20-30% of their GDP on fighting a war, which is a money-sink. It won't produce any value or improve the country.

[@Test4Echos]

@@NLTops Yeah right. That's what every western "expert" thought and bet on before the SMO. Boy, where they wrong.

[@EarlT357]

IF.....it's and buts were candy and nuts , then we'd all have a Merry Christmas!! Hey, Mark, what are the winning Powerball numbers for this Saturday???

[@eugenmalatov5470]

where are the numbers from?

[@mrnobody3161]

This is an interesting perspective. I would like to add that from sources that know, ruZZia has 37 oil refineries. These refineries produce value added products mostly for domestic consumption; gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil etc. Ukraine has put out of commission 18 oil refineries. This had caused a shortage and inflationary prices for the military and consumers. Because of so many ruZZian casualties, wages are going up in for workers in war economy positions and unemployment is at an all time low. They don't have enough workers to ramp up production. It's been said that ruZZia is recruiting mercenaries from African Countries that they've been destabilizing, who are bringing their wives and families with them to ruZZia. The Wives of the mercenaries are working in the artillery factories as a source of cheap labour. It's been said by many ruZZian soldiers that 50% of the artillery shells obtained from N.korea are either duds, have low explosive volumes, or blow ip in the artillery barrel wounding or killing artillery personnel. Thanks. 💙🇺🇦🔱Slava Ukraine Forever🔱🇺🇦💛

[@petardetar5191]

You smoke too much of a weed maybe with FENTANYL :)

[@giovanni-ed7zq]

@@petardetar5191 let me translate. with sanctions and russian cash flows getting shut off, putin used up his reserve fund and put the russian budget in deficit. because of the revenue deficit, putin was printing roubles to finance his war through his budget of 35 percent for war in ukraine. as putin prints more roubles as his cost of war increases with every military aid package ukraine gets, he weakens his rouble by creating over supply in a low demand currency in trade. this in turn causes high inflation in russia. we saw the rouble lose 50 percent of its value in last 8 months as putin printed roubles to finance his war. what hitting russian refineries does it creates a shortage in fuel in russia domestically but not internationally. this in turn raises the inflation more as fuel prices have gone up 30 percent since 2024. this is with ukraine taking out 15 percent of russian refining capacity. so if ukraine keeps hitting russian refineries up to 50 percent which is possible, its gonna make inflation likely go into hyperinflation in russia. which will callapse the russian economy like 1990 ussr. basically it creates over supply of russia crude that cant be refined, and they likely have to sell russian crude at higher than the 30 percent discounts they giving india and china and brazil. in addition gasoline and diesel costs 30 percent more than market crude price. so russia is gonna be looking at a huge revenue deficit if they are gonna be importing gasoline and diesel.

[@I_Have_The_Most_Japanese_Music]

Didn't Russia announce that they would offer citizenship to any refugee in the world? I'd like to know how many takers there have been.

[@deathpunch3917]

​@@petardetar5191Can you explain and not insult someone ?

[@jensramputh]

Don't worry. Russia is in far better shape than amUrica. Just keep talking out of your ass. It won't change the reality of the situation.

[@tomasznojmiler7667]

Thank you very much for this video!

[@EconLessons]

Thank you Tomasz

[@TheDog_Chef]

Thank you Mark for this information!

[@DonaldDuck666]

Russia produce their own artillery shells now about 3 times more then United States and allies. Which causes 80% of casualties on ukranian army. With the new FAB glide bombs the destructive power and price for such bomb is way cheaper then artillery. Speed is around 500-1900 km/h that cant be intercepted.

[@randalsaladbar]

Great explanation, and interesting idea of an interactive, real time data sounds king Mark. Let's go that path

[@mykhailobichukov7258]

Thank you mark. Great video, and valuable information as always!

[@nancyhope2205]

very interesting approach! I like it.

[@fowlerfreak7420]

I just found your channel and I hope you find the mental health and restoration that you very obviously require.

[@seanlander9321]

Europe though is still financing Russia’s war by buying huge quantities of LNG and grain. Even when they have the choice of ending the punitive trade embargo they’ve inflicted on Australia for generations to replace Russian imports, they still enthusiastically support Russia instead.

[@FrikInCasualMode]

Oh my... that's terrible. Especially that contract for LNG from Russia to Europe ends this year and will not be renewed - which was already announced by EU officials. As for the grain - what are you talking about? Grain and other agricultural product imported from Russia amounts to about 1,5% of EU market. BTW, data from this year show that Russia will have big problems with grain harvest due to cold weather damaging crops in the spring. Bad harvest = no export, because all grain will have to go to internal market. If it doesn't people will get hungry. Read what happened in 1917 when Russian people began to starve.

[@seanlander9321]

@@FrikInCasualMode Well, €1.3Bn in grain from Russia to Europe isn’t insignificant, and the LNG imports have been ramped up dramatically for two years. But interesting that you mention the 1917 harvest failure in Russia, when it was the 1916 wheat harvest in America, Canada, Argentina and much of Europe that was the greatest calamity. Australia came to the rescue with enough grain to keep Britain and much of Europe fed, at significantly discounted prices, with no payment by Britain until 1919. The point being of course, that the Europeans have had a trade embargo on Australia for generations and still will do anything to maintain the grain trade with Russia before allowing trade with Australia. You people are beyond contempt.

[@Withnail1969]

if you have oil, coal and gas of your own you can fight pretty much any war indefinitely. no amount of dollar printing can match that.

[@AtomSymbol]

Domestically developed-and-produced Russian chip manufacturing equipment is 30 years behind such equipment in Taiwan.

[@brandonmcheyenehoward1077]

Great Share, Thank You

[@AtomSymbol]

Just a note: The gas (which even today is flowing to some EU countries without any decline compared to before the Russia-Ukraine war) is projected to completely stop flowing after 2025-Jan-01 because the trade agreement for gas transportation through Ukrainian territory from Russia ends and Ukraine has stated that it isn't going to extend the trade agreement; eastern EU countries are projected to be getting gas from a western direction until the Russia-Ukraine war ends.

[@savoirfaire6181]

This isn't just an economic game. It's a game of violence, which is more basic than economics. Russia has more nukes than anyone else in the world so I'm not sure how a country devoted to that type of investment doesn't intend to capitalize on it? Anyone who thinks they can play economic games with someone who is carrying weapons is delusional. Why invest in something someone isn't intending to capitalize on if the need arises?

[@HT-ww3zg]

If this is what one smart guy like Mark can figure out, I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the ISW or the Rand Corporation, to see what hundreds of analysts with huge budgets and the best technologies know.

[@I_Have_The_Most_Japanese_Music]

Less than you would think.

[@AutoMattOn]

to be fair, it's kind of obvious. mark hasn't figured out that russia is collapsing, but he has figured out a very clear and digestible way to show it, for which he deserves some acknowledgement, this is a great video. for me it's been clear for a while that the focus is breaking russia economically, because we only give ukraine enough weapons to survive - largely to avoid getting on the nuclear escalation ladder (nuclear blackmail doesn't count, it's part of the propaganda toolkit, not the nuclear one) - but on the other hand, the non-combat support has been directed very carefully at manipulating russias role in the global energy market so it operates at a compounding loss, and in a way it can't escape or turn around unless we allow it. a bit like picard putting the borg to sleep with a funky meme rather than fight it with weapons. tsun tzu would be impressed

[@huwalsh]

If this is true why are the west panicing and talking about sending in troops

[@aercegovic]

The issue is the attrition rates are propaganda on both sides. Both state that the opposition are losing vast numbers of troops and their own attrition rates are nominal. Only one side has struggled to do full troop rotations and have substantial reinforcements available. The Russians are fielding low volumes of troops because there is no effective means to deploy large clusters of troops due to the threat of drones, artillery, MLRS and so forth. It just does not work and both sides know this. There is no closed air support for precision strikes that is cost effective. FABs have changed the battlefield and reduced Russia's need for armoured fists to break positions. I think they will force Ukraine into a negotiation as even with new weapons being supplied Ukraine has an obvious and dangerous manpower shortage. They cannot train new units faster than they are being decimated.

[@paulfelkner6749]

Mark, thank you for the economic information. Ukraine is running out of troops, they fail to in-script young men, they will not have trained troops and it does not matter if the West pays for the Ukrainian civil service. it's a war of economic attrition more than a military war. The only Grande Armie that I know of was Napoleon's invasion of Russia.

[@powergirl3798]

Your information is outdated. They actually have a big surplus, to the point that they ran out of training centers and decided to lower the combat training from 2 months to 1.5 months, while the russians ran out of men at an incredibly high rate. At this pace, without a second mobilization, they are at a disadvantage.

[@oleksandr3275]

Thank you for sharing your thoughts 👍

[@EconLessons]

My pleasure!

[@GG-si7fw]

I remember a Baltic defense minister stating that if the EU or NATO countries contributed 0.5 percent of their GDP to aid Ukraine, rhat the economic attrition would wear out Russia.

[@allistairmitchell5747]

Sensible approach rather than just basing thoughts on uncalculated opinion or unfounded conjecture. Keep it up.

[@alexandershendi7428]

Thanks for the video. May I be so bold as to inquire about the sources of the production capacities and times? Thanks!

[@melissazimmerman104]

Thank you! I hope you are correct in analysis.

[@paulfelkner6749]

Mark, please expose you economic skill and explain why China stop exporting a certain ingredient to make our 155MM rounds while Russia turns out to be the beneficiary of such transactions.

[@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531]

Source?

[@paulfelkner6749]

True, would our regime allow the Red Chinese the necessary ingredients to stop the exports to our military industrial complex. That's beg economics...

[@janruddeck2779]

Could you provide the raw numbers, from wich you derived the numbers for production costs and attrition rate for Russia? I am curious why infantry costs 2, mechanized 3 and so on, and why Russia has a capacity of 11.

[@MayThai351]

It’s all very complicated stuff, he’s an economist so just “trust me bro” 😂

[@valerijoukov239]

The guy is just a lunatic - such kind of "scientist" proved that 5 out of 6 cases the Russian roulette is absolutely save)))

[@bigolboomerbelly4348]

Love the GT videos!

[@alberthenriette8976]

The same experts that been saying Russia economy will collapse for 2 years now. 🤪 PHD = Permanent head damage 😭

[@HailAzathoth]

Bruv hears the word collapse and think it means Russia will collapse in 3 months 😂 keep on keeping on smoothbrain

[@Raw_Pointer]

​@@HailAzathothindeed. I can predict with certainty that their economy will collapse. Sometime in the next 10 000 years.

[@MayThai351]

It’s always 18-24 months away.

[@LovinLnCottage]

You don’t need a crystal ball, just a good remote viewer. 🙂

[@OscarSchneegans]

Bookmarked. It'll be interesting to revisit this theory over the next couple years.

[@Meaty33]

Great video. I do have a question in regards to the attrit rate though. If the attrit rate is using the last 2 years for data then its using a rate during the offensive push. If you look at the frontline now the Russians seem to be building a large amount of fortifications in comparison to the previous 2 years. This would lead me to believe that this phase of the war may be more defensive from Russia and offensive, to regain land, for Ukraine. The question is, if there would need to be an adjustment for this, how would the math work on it then? Thanks.

[@jjolla6391]

after the initial push to secure SE ukraine, russia hasn't moved much in the last 18 months. it's by design - it is ukraine that has attempted to push forward against this front line .. and russia picking off the offenses, otherwise known as a war of attrition. also interesting that the vid doesn't include the west's numbers .. i am willing to bet they are struggling way more.

[@justinjohnson9627]

That is a good point. He had a previous video where he talked about the attacker requiring higher numbers to predict success, and if the numbers were high enough, absolute success. Overrun is relative, of course, but the complicating factor is how effectively can you concentrate forces in a non-combined-arms army, i.e., one not trained for blitzkrieg operations? Russians are tough and plentiful, but there are limits to unsupported infantry assaults and the Russians are finding those limits. I think that the Russian casualty rate could drop ten times if they just sit in their trenches, but then what? Wait for a drone to get them?

[@brettany_renee_blatchley]

I wonder the impact of this in their ability to maintain their nuclear weapons, especially tritium production. Tritium is necessary for miniaturized fission weapons, which are necessary for practical tactical weapons, and as triggers for fusion weapons. Tritium has a half-life of 12.3 years and must be entirely replaced regularly (on a much less than 12.3 year schedule), or the weapon will turn into a fizzel/dud. Tritium has a number of uses, but its production requires a lot of expensive industrial sophistication.

[@justinjohnson9627]

I've thought a lot about this as well. I don't think any experts will be forthcoming, but from a psychology perspective I think the following: it's a valuable thing to steal, but a disaster to get caught, so better to steal a million things for a dollar than one thing for a million dollars if your goal is to perpetuate the corruption. I'm not confident that they have maintained their nuclear weapons appropriately, but I am more confident the warheads do work than don't work. The missiles, though... some of them have been less than perfect and with an ICBM you would prefer a 100% reliability/accuracy rate.

[@soylentgreenb]

It’s not about the practical issues. I can replace the tritium; or I can pocket the money and say I did. You don’t even get to test the weapons. Now what do you think happened; spent the millions per wespon per year maintaining them or just pocketed 90% and maintained a few of them to use for inspections?

[@NoobaSChanaL]

Very interesting study! And Russian governmant understands the problem you are talking about. Because of this Putin have made, Belousov, an economist, a new minister of the Russian MOD. They hope to make the system more effective and less corrupted. But as a russian myself a doubt they will have any success. Also one of the main oligarchs Chemezov, who is a head of RosTec, main weapon producer, in his last interview said that most factories are almost none profitable. So I guess government will give even more money to this corporation. They raised salary taxes a couple of days ago to be able to afford new spendings. Sorry for my bad english

[@danielfioretti3496]

Thanks for the interesting take. One thing I'd question is the assumption that Russia's production is going to stay constant or even decrease over time. During WWII, German tank and warplane manufacturing peaked in 1944, despite the effects of several years of war, blockades, and strategic bombing. With the ongoing Russian transition to a war-time economy, wouldn't you expect the industrial output to increase in quantitative (if not qualitative) terms?

[@roelpiepenbrink700]

Agree with you about the direction of events, it is a process that costs time but seems necessarily to become realiteit...👍

[@Chaldon-hl6yk]

Russia is out of shovels 2 years ago

[@alexfrancis3581]

Lots of assumptions and predictions basis some very questionable input data. Must be a econ professor with a specialization on critical queer studies

[@blankmike4613]

Hi, gr8 "game" set-up. I've published many games for the last 40 years, its good work. it helps narrow the focus on the Ukraine Revolution.

[@mirellafalso6112]

Fascinating presentation - thanks for sharing your perspective.

[@john.8805]

Thanks for the take Mark! Can’t find this level of quantitative analysis elsewhere.

[@truthseeker6116]

AS usual good, solid, useful information.

[@EconLessons]

Much appreciated!

[@Querulously]

I think this is something well known as per Perun or prof Gaerdes calculations Most interesting is the easy tank replacement and loss rates which imply tanks are reducing in numbers and artillery barrels also which are harder to estimate M. Airframes likewise hard to estimate Any of these three likely to result in total failure of the army If they run out Hard numbers ? Say 1 new tanks a day and 3 refurbish Confirmed visual kills 14 ish tanks a day Tanks in service say 1500 You can do the math

[@ernestoalvarez4669]

Thank you Mark..as always awesome video.

[@EconLessons]

Thanks again!

[@tybeedave]

the moscovites won't know they lost....

[@mythbuster6126]

Because they did it in the parallel western universe

[@SebHaarfagre]

Or perhaps my comment here was removed by bots, which equalized Muscovites with creatures that leech off of others for their own benefit, and that comment was reported as "hateful speech" 😂😂 Can someone please explain to me how the above is wrong and not 100% pragmatic and just simple truth? Maybe the YT team should go take a look at the countryside outside of Moscow, or look up their history between 1500 and today?

[@ikarder]

@@SebHaarfagre comments are disappearing indeed, and i don't know what's happening on youtube, but as a russian, i'm annoyed with it too. However, maybe youtube just don't like politic videos and leaving it with low moderation, idk

[@user-mz3in7vo5b]

Living in a "bubble" they won't even notice... Thats why things can go bizzar, when feedback from consequences of action is broken.... Apply to many other situations. Power corrupts!

[@andyhurrell]

The Muscovites might realise they've lost if there's a regime change, or a coup, or a revolution. Some commentators are saying that if the Kremlin's attempted genocide of the Ukrainian nation and the theft of its territory doesn't "succeed" all hell will break loose in Russia. Slava Ukraine!

[@bjrnhjjakobsen2174]

I like the model ! But Imagine the backlog they create in regard to lack of resources for maintenance and upgrades of the infrastructure.

[@I_Have_The_Most_Japanese_Music]

I think some of this stuff blowing up is the result of the Western technical support companies pulling out and deferred maintenance.

[@alexandraoryniak5269]

Russia does not upgrade infrastructure. They fix only when a catastrophe happens in a bare minimal way. All money is designated to the war, except that 20+% gets sidelined to fraud in the military.

[@neurocaballero]

Great model. On one side we see most of the kills are FPV & drones, and the other endless shelling fireworks. How does this model explain that?

[@Joe44944]

I see you have a different background today Mark, that's refreshing 😊

[@grantp4022]

I think with North Korea's donation to Russia, Kim Jon Un's diet of 14 cheeseburgers a day, will suffer immensely. He may have to now be satisfied with just 4.

[@clementng7718]

😂😂😂😂

[@grantp4022]

@@clementng7718 It's all a matter of cheeseburgers :)

[@RichPober]

Excellent insights.

[@28pbtkh23]

It's interesting to see your gameplay for Russia. But shouldn't you also add in the gameplay for Ukraine? What if Ukraine collapses before June 2025 or January 2026? From what I have read (and I have no way of knowing if what I have read is accurate, I will admit) Ukraine is on the ropes, it is staggering. How much longer can Ukraine last. Remember, they only have a population of 38 million.

[@danielturczan2485]

That exact comment has been made for over 2 years. And yet Ukraine endures.

[@ScottsFinancialThoughts]

@@danielturczan2485They endure, but are beginning to crack. The goal wasn’t to take over the whole country. The game is attrition. The other thing people forget the real US goal is China. How long before the US simply loses interest? Without the US, this whole thing falls flat.

[@blazej799]

Ukraine still is not conscripting anyone younger then 25.

[@oleczkaify]

In the areas controlled by Kiev, estimates are at 25 million at this moment

[@Captain.Fantastic]

Fascinating stuff. Makes me hopeful.

[@bigsilverorb3492]

Great stuff, Mark. Vodka is the enemy.

[@jolly3633]

reminds me of old school Avalon Hill games....

[@juliechristianson8009]

“Breaks my heart”……..love it.

[@MrTracker614]

I used to play these games in the 70’s. It was called, “Strategy and Tactics”. Exactly the same game. Absolutely excellent, with very good results.

[@steffanreichenbach3124]

That´s the problem with any ´Game-Mechanic´ , they have rules and this are fixed and cannot change. Reality is different. For example : to build a new infantry unit the russian need 2/6 ( 2 cost over 6 month time from your table ) , but this is a givien Level of you , you can train a less equipt unit and reduce the cost to 1/4 in reality. the other point is, you don´t normaly build new units from the scratch in reality, rather you choose to fill up damaged units to combat readiness. So you have come to a conclusion based on your assumptions and I say, this assumptions are incorrect. An exampla for that too : this isn´t a fight of Russia, it is of the ´Russian-Federation´, Russia may be the most important Member of it, but far from standing alone.

[@nick-oi1xf]

Like this guy knows what's going on in Russia? What a ridiculous video.

[@jonm1999]

You’re inside!

[@juliechristianson8009]

Thank you. I need this sort of news every day.

[@craigalbrechtson5364]

Thank you for the analysis, it was quite informative.

[@peteduch2151]

There is a lot of misinformation outthere so i take any numbers on lost vehicles with a pince of salt

[@jellybean288]

Russia is indeed salty about the numbers lost during their pincers

[@NLTops]

Lol, vehicle losses are actually rather well-documented. Personnel losses are harder to track, but yeah the reported vehicle losses are all confirmed losses by videographic evidence.

[@peteduch2151]

@@jellybean288 i never said russia is lying i was saying they all ly

[@TheLumberjack1987]

Oryx numbers are very accurate when it comes to finding out what the minimum loss numbers are, as they only count what's visually confirmed.

[@autotuna3805]

​@@TheLumberjack1987have you counted every loss on Oryx?

[@jpa5038]

There's nothing wrong with using a model like this. The problem that I see is you're underestimating Russian losses so far in the war. The Russians have suffered more than 500k losses thus far in the war and when it comes to military hardware, some systems like artillery are greater than 85% destroyed of what Russia had at pre-war levels. Overall the Soviet stockpile is now more than 75% destroyed. Russian tank losses average more than 10 per day or 300 per month. Russia can refurbish a couple hundred tanks per year. This is the reason why we keep seeing older and older tanks like T-55s and T-54s. Now Russia claims it can produce thousands of modernized fully upgraded tanks like the T-90M, but if that's the case, why is it increasingly rare to see T-90 tanks on the battlefield? And more importantly, why would Russia choose to use T-55s/T-54s if it had the option to use a fully upgraded T-90M which the Russians claim they have thousands just sitting around? They wouldn't choose that option. They're not choosing that option because they simply don't have the option. Most of Russian "new production" is just refurbishing what's left in the tank yards. And satellite imagery has confirmed a serious loss of hardware just looking at the military bases that house these various systems. Tanks, APCs, IFVs and artillery have taken the brunt of the destruction of this war and Russia is running out of these systems in totality in a time frame counted in months, not years, months.

[@Nirton93]

You overestimate all this.

[@jpa5038]

@@Nirton93 If anything, the estimates I listed under-report Russian losses.

[@cactuslietuva]

yeah russian are fighting with shovels, NATO can't win against shovels it seems

[@jpa5038]

@@cactuslietuva Russians are fighting with Soviet era shiite and claiming everything in their military is fully modernized. Chinese golf carts, motor cycle attacks, literal sheds welded onto 70 year old tanks. The evidence is overwhelming.

[@amogus1337-tw7wc]

copiumus maximus

[@nodontdothat]

This is great but where are these rates coming from?

[@landontesar3070]

Always with economists, the past predicts the future. Until it doesn't. War is not a mechanical system.

[@nodontdothat]

@@landontesar3070 no I mean the sources

[@landontesar3070]

@@nodontdothat sorry, I was implying that he is using the history of the war so far to predict the future. I believe the war will slow as both sides become less capable of destructive force

[@desertvoyeur]

Why not make a systems dynamics model (Stella) and run it? Allows sliders to change variables. There’s even a gaming version allowing realtime interventions. It can also run multiple runs to discover those parameters which are most sensitive or determinative.

[@edwardhammond5582]

Another first class assessment, Mark. A credible reason to be cheerful.

[@valentinabirulina7812]

Mom, look im an cope economist today! Russia is struggling while ukraine is prosper! Source: trust me bro

[@commandertopgun]

I LOVE THIS VIDEO Mark, wow incredible analysis. I am one with the collapse of Russia's Economy, once that's bringing the war in Ukraine to an end. Thanks mark.

[@commandertopgun]

Thanks, brother, man, I so look forward to your videos, I found you back today, so I am listening to all the videos I missed so much.

[@larzkruber822]

Not the first one i heard who uses "game logic" for geopolitics

[@sveinsoermo9883]

Your videos are outstanding! 🏅

[@Kansika]

Yes, they stand out as spiteful delusional fantasies.

[@EconLessons]

Svein, I appreciate that!

[@BurninVinyl]

I miss those times where when people said China, it meant globalism, now globalists call it "multi-polar order".

[@gggg-xv7nb]

China was a quasi ally of the west and Americans specifically, up till i think 2010 or so. They even took on debt to help save the (western globalized) economy at the behest of Americans after the 2008 financial crisis, the ramifications of which (debt load) they're still feeling today. What turned them towards this "multipolarity" business (which the US and west considers open hostility), i believe, was the "Arab Spring" 2011 and subsequent activities of the West in that region. Being a non-western, authoritarian regime like those targeted by the "Spring", they realized they could easily suffer the fate of Mubarak in Egypt (an American ally that was overthrown with American blessing) at best, or Syria at worst, at the snap of a finger by the West due simply to ideological disagreements or that amorphous "interests in the region". China probably already harbored some misgivings towards the West prior to 2011 as a result of the Yugoslavia intervention of the 1990s, and Iraq w in the 00s, but those were arguably conducted for more predictable, and justifiable reasons (Iraq not because of wmds but because they invaded Kuwait a decade earlier, landing them in the "naughty" list). Arab Spring and what happened in Libya and Syria I think shook them (CCP) more profoundly because it was not clear what those targeted regimes could have done - shorting of KO-ing themselves and surrendering the country unconditionally to western "interests" and western funded NGOs - that would've prevented the West from just waking up one day and unprovokedly deciding to regime-change them, wrecking the country and harming innocents in the process. It was the final straw

[@angelnum18]

@@gggg-xv7nb Interesting summary of events

[@LACHIVA1969]

Very good analysis but I think you forgot to take into account the incredible capacity of the Russian military industry to improvsie. They are now sending huge battalions in motor bikes and chinese golf carts. Dont count them out yet.

[@spadeespada9432]

You said, "Create a game..." I heard, "I'll great a conceptual model using a fixed proven methodology with the goal of communicating the material elements of ..." What I get wrong?

[@Kansika]

Grammar, spelling and punctuation...

[@spadeespada9432]

@@Kansika So none of the important shit,!

[@spadeespada9432]

@@Kansika No body asked you! lol.

[@Kansika]

@@spadeespada9432 Nobody asked you anything, either. Nobody replied to your question, for that matter, because it failed to communicate any coherent conceptual model. You could have taken my comment without being offended and instead brushed up on your English. Mutual understanding thru proper language is important shit. If you want to talk in private with this guy you should email/PM him. Otherwise it's an open YT debate or a free-for-all roast fest depending on the topic and the participants.

[@Omegawerewolfx]

The production/attrition stuff is great. The wishful thinking that a Russian defeat/coup will make Russia better is not in line with the last two centuries of history

[@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531]

Correct. The replacement government would be operating under the burden of (so to speak) higher entropy levels.

[@Deathadder90]

The biggest issue in all of this is China.

[@user-fo8uj2ep1c]

Sir,I shall remember this evaluation and see how it ages-with all due respect-My opinion is that this is pure BS

[@slavakotelnikov2440]

Author is in for the money. As long as he gets his views he's fine.

[@APW-ry2ok]

Time will tell ,but the timeline sounds right with what is happening on the ground and in the Black Sea …..

[@user-xp5id1kh4r]

@@slavakotelnikov2440 Bro... he gets a few tens of thousands of views per video... how much do you think he's raking in for that? LOL, pennies dude. he's lucky if he gets an extra thousand bucks a month from them, and that's if they're even allowed to all be monetized since they're covering "controversial" topics. For reference, his "biggest" video has like 130k views lol

[@pepijndever]

I second that - ofcourse i'm not a monetary economist, just a logistics and procurement coordinator ;)

[@kaiser3626]

The simulation totally miss the political dimension of this war. Ukraine is not fighting with only its own production, so it depends if the western support dont fade with time. If Trump wins US elections, it will be over for Ukraine.

[@jerrywatson1958]

I like this "game" concept. You kept it simple so the masses can understand. I appreciate that. I look forward to the revisions you may make.

[@beba5865]

one more in a series of smart people who don't know what happened yesterday, don't understand today but seriously claim what will happen tomorrow. Ha, ha, ha...

[@wstoker84]

This is only believable if Ukraine is telling the truth about Russian loses. Ukraine is the only country asking for F-16s, more tanks, more patriot systems, more HIMARS, more bradleys, more ammo, and more troops. Lack of real skill and/or training has put Ukraine in a major disadvantage. Dirt cheap D-30 artillery being destroyed is not gonna hurt Russia. There is a site with a list of Russia loses of mechanized vehicles and tanks, but since Ukraine uses degraded versions of everything Russia has, how can we tell if those are actually Russian loses. While we are trying to bleed Russian equipment and troops, they planned on doing the same to us and it is working. They are also testing our equipment and quickly learn new tactics. They already know how we would fight a war. Now they are learning and proving they can handle a war with at least a NATO without a full blown American presence. Can we trust what Ukraine is saying? Israel says they shoot down 99% of the Iranian missiles and drones, but bases in the south of Israel were hit multiple of times. Those bases were the targets of Iran. They house the F-35s that the did strike in Syria which killed Iranian Generals.

[@repsaknivek]

Of course Ukraine asks for weapons, ammo, and equipment. Before 2014 it didn’t even have an army. On the other hand Russia has spent most of the last 75 years as the “other” superpower. Yet in a war with a country that’s a fraction of its size, and against a military that’s in its infancy, Russia hasn’t made any real gains in the last two years.

[@wstoker84]

@@repsaknivek and also Ukraine has plenty of Russian equipment before 2014. They had a military. Russia just slowly destroyed it over the past two years. These guys plan for war with America. Those are the tactics. America is trained for greatly inferior militaries. America's war history is filled with fighting countries that couldn't hold territory outside of its own borders.

[@mrpmrp226]

As always, I learn a lot from your videos/lectures. As I read through this info, there is one issue that concerns me most of all. At the end of next year, will there be any Ukranians left to fight? What is the probability that other, more developed countries will step up and fight to keep Russia from expanding? Nobody wants Russia for a neighbor, but are they willing to deploy troops to stop it?

[@user-ge5vf5md7r]

Thank you.

[@KrazyIvan69]

All that hippity dippity crap you started waffling on about around 12:11 almost made me lose my lunch. I'm gonna laugh when all of your predictions fail to materialize.

Thank you mark

[@tomsaunins1]

Nice effort! Thx from 🇱🇻

[@johngreg8910]

A question with infantry. Russia is using lots of functionally untrained units at low cost (~$2500 sign up cost). They also seem to be able to keep maintaining overall troop numbers. How would the scenario look/change of infantry were free. (or perhaps 1/10th the cost) and unlimited?

[@foodistzen]

They have an infinite pool of mercenaries to recruit from

[@FinianLohbar]

@@foodistzen no they dont, they are running out of time and money

[@TheFrewah]

I think russia has lost lots of people that need training to be good like S-400 system operators and tank crew. There may be a large pool of people but how well do they understand these things?

[@justinjohnson9627]

When we played out these wargames in the past we used untrained troops as "militia" combat types. They were effectively used as boundary troops. Russia right now is extending the length of the combat line because they can sit these militia combat units on one side of a border and tie up Ukrainian troops on the other side of the border, allowing the Russians to concentrate effective combat troops in one location while thinning out the defenders. Militia units are good at sitting in trenches. Russia is underestimating the West, however, because this is an obvious tactic and in the world of electronic warfare the combat capable units are obvious and that is where the Russians will attack. I assume the Russians will try maskirovka tactics using the useless troops to hide the good ones, or daring the Ukrainians to leave an area underdefended and sacrificing Russian militia units in an attack that only serves to distract and harass the Ukrainians (like Kharkhiv or Sumy). Russians essentially have free logistics inside their own borders, so making Ukraine defend an extra few hundred kilometers is a price they are willing to pay in these circumstances, and untrained-unsupported soldiers are the perfect troops to do it.

[@johngreg8910]

@@justinjohnson9627 Thank you for the assessment. The other thing I was wondering about is technology. For example, Ukrainian still does not have a good solution for Russia’s Lancet drones. I have seen Western equipment that can consistently take these out even better than the aging and limited in number Gepards. However, as it stands, Russia seems to be currently destroying Ukrainian artillery (mostly with lancets) faster than Ukraine can sustain. Can a game scenario also predict the possible swing that might occur if a solution is not produced for a delima such as this?