Your black jack analogy is very apt mathematically. If you always had 17, you are entirely dependent on the dealer to bust in order to win. That happens 29% of the time on average. The likelihood that you win 4 straight hands (Ie playoff rounds) is 0.7%. If you just played basic strategy your odds of winning 4 straight are 5.5% or 7.5X better. Sounds a lot like the long shot strategy and salary structure the Leafs have pursued the last 7 years
@Robokingmen2 ай бұрын
Marners not the problem... Holl, Engvall, Kerfoot, a worse Kampf were the issues not their two best guys Marner Nd Matthews
@davestrange37182 ай бұрын
nice break down
@davidmayers16452 ай бұрын
@@Robokingmen 1. The amount of money they pay the big4 & 2.The big 4 ‘s inability to generate goals in the postseason is what forces them into players like Holl, Engvall, Kerfoot who can’t hang in key minutes in big situations. None of those guys would be on a 2nd or 3rd line/ middle D for a Cup contender. That’s the fault of management for structuring the roster and cap as they have. Something has to change and you have to move key players to do it!! It’s the structure not specific names
@austinb14002 ай бұрын
@@Robokingmenthey are the problem because they make so much money resulting in the rest of the team being dog water. It has nothing to do with their talent. They're incredibly talented players who would have been surrounded by guys like Hyman and Brown and other role players in past eras where there wasn't a salary cap
@millionfish2 ай бұрын
I think a lot of Leaf fans have deluded themselves into thinking the Leafs can catch lightning in a bottle and go on this magical run to the cup even though they've made very little progress over the last 8 years. These Leaf fans are the number one reason why the organization can fail year after year and they'll keep buying tickets and merch. To win, you have to make bold moves. Florida did it with Huberdeau, Vegas has done it multiple times by trading guys. Take emotion out of it and look at it rationally.
@austinburnham92912 ай бұрын
I would trade Tank Top Steve straight up for literally anyone😂
@cronkacola2 ай бұрын
What people don't get is that you aren't trading Marner to get someone better than Marner - you trade marner so you can afford more than one person (and these multiple people add up to be better than Marner) the entirety of the core four problem is that you need more than just a few extremely talented players - trading marner helps to solve this
@mannyo29092 ай бұрын
Yes! To be able to shore up bottom 6!
@alltheworldsastage.2 ай бұрын
No.
@cmac35302 ай бұрын
You're correct. The problem now is being able to utilize that extra cap space now that the free agency period has passed... The reality they're faced with now is do you think you can utilize Marner's $11M in cap space better by trading him for less than he's worth and trying to make his production up elsewhere? Or do you just bite the bullet and get one more year of production out of him and fix the cap situation next season?
@cronkacola2 ай бұрын
@cmac3530 their hesitation has definitely bit them here, but the truth is there's probably no way to get market value for him. Save for a few desperate leaf fans, everyone knows the leafs need to dump marner's cap, so nobody is going to make a fair offer. Everyone knows how things went with marner's last contract negotiation, and nobody is willing to trade to get him sooner knowing his agent will demand 12 mill no matter what. If you want marner at 11 or 12 mill, just take the chance during free agency. This leaves the leafs next chance at the trade deadline, except at that point they'd have to either deal him to a contender for picks + retention, then trade again for other assets, or just keep them as their own owned rental.
@Mike-sl5lu2 ай бұрын
@@alltheworldsastage.how no? Please explain this idiocy. You do understand the situation, right?
@biffstrong10792 ай бұрын
Yes I'd make this deal in a second. Necas is 25 and will easily give you 70 points with Nylander or Matthews. He's a good offensive player and a center and costs 4.4 million less than marner. He will never likely cost you as much as $10 million. Meanwhile Marner is 27 costs 10.9 million and will never cost you less than that, gives you an easy 90 points and is a little like poisoned fruit in toronto. You may not be able to resign him and you won't be able to resign him to a rational contract. That 4.4 million can be redistributed as it should be. The defense isn't good enough. Last year TJ Brodie played first pair minutes and klingberg played second pair minutes. Leafs have Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev as their first pair. Tanev was the #4 defenseman in Calgary in minutes played and the number four defenseman in Dallas. He's a number two in Toronto? Murray will be hurt, Woll will get injured. Stolarz has like a 30 game ceiling. Is Hildeby the plan? Get another goalie.
@elwizschold2 ай бұрын
To continue the black jack analogy, signing JT was removing all 2s, 3,s, and 4,s from play. So you're sitting there with 17, knowing you can't take another card even if you wanted to.
@oldhab78902 ай бұрын
Trading Marner was never going to be a "win" for the Leafs. No GM would trade major assets for Marner when they can bid for him for free next season. The trade was to free up capital to make major upgrades on defence and goaltending. Even letting Marner walk after the end of year will provide the cap space to make major improvements. Leafs fans will have a wonderful regular season. Enjoy the 82 game season.
@alltheworldsastage.2 ай бұрын
He's not leaving Toronto lol They will give him his 12mil why do u think they signed Nylander for the price they got him.
@jkp972 ай бұрын
@@alltheworldsastage.if you think Marner is going to get paid anything less than $2M more than Nylander on his next deal, you are sorely mistaken. Marner has consistently outperformed Willy in the regular season, and - for better or for worse - those are the statistics upon which players get paid. Marner will sign for $13.5M+.
@Konquerror2 ай бұрын
@@jkp97 Agreed, Nylander is just a standard good sniper whose had some playoff success (the rest of the leafs effectively had no playoff goals) Marner is an elite playmaker who you can put on any line and he will make them score 50+ goals.
@maudlewis85362 ай бұрын
As a Canes fan, I would 100% do that trade. I feel Necas would thrive in a high pressure market like Toronto, whereas Marner would thrive in a low pressure market like Carolina
@maudlewis85362 ай бұрын
@ScottStenlund New York is another market that would have his head on a stick if he has another bad playoff stint hahaha. Maybe the Isles. If he wants to stay in Toronto he needs to show up for the whole year
@maudlewis85362 ай бұрын
@ScottStenlund yeah those are good points. Maybe the Rangers would be a good fit for him. Just as long as they can translate his game into the post season he’ll be worth every penny of his deal, no matter where he is
@millionfish2 ай бұрын
I have no issue paying 4 guys what the Leafs have been paying these guys, but it can't be 4 forwards. It has to be a combination of forwards, d-men, goalie.
@Acrr012 ай бұрын
thats how tampa won their cups. stamer kuch hedman vasy
@Robokingmen2 ай бұрын
@@Acrr01can't use the Florida model ... They're getting less money because of the tax situation
@Just2Krispy2 ай бұрын
5-6m in cap space is way less valuable when ufa is over.
@nealmac90172 ай бұрын
Defense is weak. Marner for top D. Then give Montreal a pick for one of their young d
@R7U1LE2 ай бұрын
Tank top steve is crazy
@sdpn2 ай бұрын
@FREETHINKER-052 ай бұрын
Marner for Necas is the stupidest trade idea so far…….Treliving:” I’ll trade you Mitch for Necas”….One second later Carolina:”DONE”
@ryanjulian41482 ай бұрын
I agree that it is a better gamble with Necas than Marner, talent wise Leafs get crushed, however playoff wise, and more cap room for quality depth for playoff run. If Marner does sign, it will come with no trade clause and term, with or without the Leafs. However, Necas can come with a bridge deal and traceable asset if it doesn't fit. However #2, the Leafs is a prime free agent destination for the majority of talented players if they have the cap room
@DanoFSmith-yc9tg2 ай бұрын
How about; Mitch Marner and John Traveres to Calgary for Johnathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, and 1 or even 2 of MacKenzie Weegar, Daniil Miromanov, and/or Rasmus Anderson I really think Huberdeau could be had for basically a toss in at this point, and could really turn things around on a line setting up Auston and Willy. Naz to re due the JT error And right hand d to balance the value out, and fill a decades old long organizational dead spot. Calgary gets out of Huberdeau issue, and has something to build around in Marner. Plus it tickles the Brad Treliving feels, picking his old guys from his old team. It's almost too perfect really.
@DanoFSmith-yc9tg2 ай бұрын
Contracts would basically work out. Leafs dismantling the core. But replacing parts of it. Redistributing the cap for future flexibility. And Calgary has to expect to take on some bad money in return for unloading JH.
@DanoFSmith-yc9tg2 ай бұрын
Huberdeau-Mathews-Nylander Knies-Kadri-Jankrok McMann-Domi-Holmberg Dewar-Kampf-Robertson/Reeves Reilly- Calgary d-man x EkmanLarsson-Tanev 2 other Flames Dmen- or whoever else. Still a pretty solid line up, not losing much, arguably adding, while turning 2 big contracts into 3 or 4 smaller ones.
@DanoFSmith-yc9tg2 ай бұрын
I'd literally rather take a chance on Huberdeau rebounding than run back this core 4 crap for yet another year. And I'm not even a leafs fan. I cheer for the Avs.
@DanoFSmith-yc9tg2 ай бұрын
You could even add Liljegren in from the Leafs side to get the best 2 of the Calgary Right handers in return, I guess Weegar and Anderson
@DanoFSmith-yc9tg2 ай бұрын
The d core would look more like this; Reilly- Weegar OEL- Tanev McCabe-Anderson Benoit Or something like that.
@millionfish2 ай бұрын
I don't understand these trade scenarios? We all know this organization is going to give Marner whatever he wants and expect him to hopefully win them a cup in the next 8 years.
@ibrhq64252 ай бұрын
Marner, Robertson, and a 3rd, for Svechnikov, Necas, Nikishin, and a 1st, who says no?
@tonybozzelli2872 ай бұрын
the Canes will
@rosariocannistraro35612 ай бұрын
Jesus Crist lay down the crack pipe dude .
@christopherrego87062 ай бұрын
I don’t think Marner for Nikishin straight up would go through
@christophermerlot33662 ай бұрын
It seems that Steve got dangled out of his shirt.
@DeletedUser0152 ай бұрын
Except it wasn't marner for necas, it was marner for necas + bertuzzi, it was marner for necas + broberg and halloway... yes marner for necas was a great idea
@RookieHockeyCollector2 ай бұрын
If they traded Marner for Necas and somehow picked up Laine I would be game
@jeromefarrell41062 ай бұрын
No Move Clause
@stephendrown38082 ай бұрын
100% I would do this deal without hesitation
@wbj20002 ай бұрын
Perhaps Adam loves golfing in April because Leafs current lineup is only a 17, until they make a change. You can never win at a big table with 17. At the end of the season Marnier will likely walk away for nothing, because the Leafs are the RUN IT BACK re-run franchise. If this was a Vegas problem it would have been solved two years ago.
@Nimajneb420692 ай бұрын
This is the kinda trade us leaf fans will be made fun of a few years from now. There’s no situation you win a marner trade
@therearenonameslefta2 ай бұрын
Dunce crown. I'm not forgetting that lol.
@heyitsbranigan2 ай бұрын
Tavares has been the issue from the rip. Doesn't up his game. The biggest trap signing of all time. I feel so bad for Marner who has done nothing but perform in the big games when JT gets to coast and now has the age excuse. Smh
@DaveRMP122 ай бұрын
Tank top and no pants
@Lee-f9w5v2 ай бұрын
I would rather have Jarvis who we should of had already if TML were not a joke! At this point it is running it back 5.0 and we expect to win lol.
@jayvardy2 ай бұрын
Steve's "scenarios" have nothing to do with anything. He thinks they do. They don't. His "17 forever table" at a poker game has literally nothing to do with a Marner for Necas trade. Nothing.
@jsquared10132 ай бұрын
Shallow thinking. It has everything to do with Toronto's approach to the personnel situation.
@randysgutful2 ай бұрын
Marner isn't being traded. He'll sign a new contract or leave in free agency. I don't understand why you're all bothering to discuss it.
@late36192 ай бұрын
They have to do something for views.
@mannyo29092 ай бұрын
Definitely not if I was Carolina. Necas is a beast in playoffs.
@J.G.Wentworth694202 ай бұрын
Yeah. Once... last year.
@randysgutful2 ай бұрын
You can tell by the 30 points in 59 playoff games.
@Axel-ze9mx2 ай бұрын
Marner has played 2 fewer playoff games in his career and scored 20 more points lol. Goes to show how far the narrative has driven the discourse around this player
@jlalonde10002 ай бұрын
I would trade mitch and Matthews for any hope of a someone who can play in playoffs hell trade for perry he has a history of good playoffs performance
@stewartcumming8742 ай бұрын
If the team is better this year then it's not a 17 each hand.
@zascorpusa2 ай бұрын
Necas isn’t good. Shouldn’t Leafs get back more back than just Necas.
@Tones-s1m2 ай бұрын
Easy with the tank top bud....... WOAH look out....
@jesseyules2 ай бұрын
You guys are obsessed. The fact that the team was worse last, after the personnel changes is never mentioned. “Snot” didn’t work.
@iamflat2 ай бұрын
As a Canes fan: absolutely not. Necas is arguably 90-95% of the player Marner is and costs us almost half as much for the next couple years. We don't want Marner.
@aaamm40102 ай бұрын
i wouldn't trade Marner for any player presently on the Canes Roster
@iamflat2 ай бұрын
@aaamm4010 don't y'all desperately need forwards with better valued contracts, and good defensemen?
@alltheworldsastage.2 ай бұрын
@@iamflat Not no more
@martinnolet92872 ай бұрын
Very arguably like borderline delusional arguable
@martinnolet92872 ай бұрын
Oh I'm not a leafs fan I'm a habs fan so it's not leaf love
@briandonovan13812 ай бұрын
leafs will have marner on the team to start the season. He will dealt mid season. And tavares is cursed.
@Acrr012 ай бұрын
Why could i see marner in a carolina jersey and it not look wierd?
@beelzeebub12 ай бұрын
Marner is a rental that has to agree , they will get ZERO , END OF STORY
@emiljeong54212 ай бұрын
0:45 jarvis
@Michael-pg7rv2 ай бұрын
Man let Adam talk.
@JacobPasta162 ай бұрын
Yea
@giacintomatera93452 ай бұрын
No again they need to trade Marner for a #1 D or a blue chip prospect #1 D that’s ready to step in and forward help
@michaelenyart57892 ай бұрын
If Leafs get to 3rd round (with good performances from core 4) would leafs nation be happy with Brad resigning Mitch?
@arcticmonkey32 ай бұрын
No
@TalkingCatFunShow2 ай бұрын
I think Dangle might be taking steroids but whatever he's not a UFC fighter so good for him.
@petervenier5052 ай бұрын
I think Marner plays for the leafs
@goku09102 ай бұрын
yes
@jonasgorea38232 ай бұрын
Jesse is correct. Change for changes sake never works. Thats how u end up w like panarin for saad for example. It has to make sense for the team to move on which for Toronto it just doesn’t this season. It did last year which is why they should have picked between Mitch and nylander but it doesn’t now esp w marner’s value in the toilet
@jppaul12612 ай бұрын
Running it back for a 9th year works? I say no. People will bring up Washington as a team that had to take even more kicks at the can before Ovie won. The difference is that the Caps still had cap space to adjust the support cast and plug holes. They didn't have over 40 million spent on four forwards.
@jonasgorea38232 ай бұрын
@@jppaul1261 oh yea I agree they should have blown it up last year but they didn’t. Now I don’t think there is a trade that would make sense for the leafs let alone make them better
@abdouldmml2 ай бұрын
The problem is your just looking at winning a trade! While losing perspective of the cap space it brings and all the possibilities that come with it! You mention panarin for sadd but that deal had to happen because chicago was locked in big contracts! Toronto is in that same spot and if you had a panarin this summer you'd of needed to trade him to thanks to all the no trade clauses
@alltheworldsastage.2 ай бұрын
Marner isn't going anywhere 😂
@millionfish2 ай бұрын
You do realize that Panarin was traded because they couldn't pay him, right?
@aaamm40102 ай бұрын
Leafs trade Marner they will never get full value, Just sign him eventually you will have Auston, Nylander, Marner Tavares will be gone
@alltheworldsastage.2 ай бұрын
Tavares isn't going anywhere either 😂 He's retiring in toronto what you guys don't realise is John T has pull in toronto
@millionfish2 ай бұрын
You do understand that Tavares is going to re-sign for less money, right? But even if he does leave, the Leafs will still be up against the cap thanks to the raises for the big 3. And don't forget, you also need to get a second line centre to replace Tavares.
@alltheworldsastage.2 ай бұрын
@@millionfish Tavares not leaving Toronto
@raymondclouston62552 ай бұрын
That sounds like a perfect Toronto trade…really really stupid, totally effs Toronto, and replaces a great player with a good player…very on brand for Toronto
@jonah.donohue2 ай бұрын
Slow day in the office?
@mattrix42002 ай бұрын
Of ALL ''core 4'' players I've always advocated that Marner is the 'most valuable' because he's the only one who plays on BOTH sides of the puck consistently, and the only player who noticeably improves his linemates... HOWEVER... the sucky Dubas/Treliving deals (to Matthews & Nylander) have FORCED us to dump one or both of Marner & Tavares. Any talent we can get back that lets us save money & cap space (to desperately redistribute to our Def & Goalies) is a win at this point. It's another Zach Hyman situation where we need to lose the players we NEED, to afford the players we have. (Thanks again Dubas, Shanahan & Treliving for destroying literally a whole generation of hockey in Toronto).
@brandongerofsky48172 ай бұрын
Nylander to me is the only one who truly doesn't. Marner is clearly the best defensive player of the bunch though.
@jonah.donohue2 ай бұрын
😂😂😂
@cmac35302 ай бұрын
Matthews was 3rd in voting for the Selke this year with 514 voting points... Marner was 17th with just 23 voting points... Now tell me again how Marner is the only player to play both sides of the puck... Nylander had the same amount of points in the playoffs last year as Marner and Nylander only played 4 games... Oh and did you forget who got burned by Pastrnak on the OT winner in Game 7?? And the Leafs aren't being "forced" to lose Marner and/or Tavares, the Leafs have the cap space next year to re-sign both at their current rates. (Over $26M currently projected) The problem is doing so would be the literal definition of insanity. (Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results)
@mattrix42002 ай бұрын
@@cmac3530 Matthews: * In 7-yrs as a top-line centre has his FIRST season where he's not barely over +/- OR used by his NHL coaches against the opponent's 2nd line (or worse) to keep from exposing his weak defensive game! * Was never allowed to play with both Nylander and Marner because Keefe AND Babcock publicly stated they needed MORE from his defensive responsibilities and that they PREFER Marner in that role. * Was publicly shamed by Ovechkin (who himself refused to play defensive hockey for the first 6yrs of his career - until he ''got it'' and then won a cup!) When interviewed after beating the Leafs Ovi said: ''They have such young talented players who will start to really do some great things in this league...they just need to have some consistency in playing together and playing both sides." (paraphrased). Matthews was PI**ED when he heard this whereas the rest of the NHL world knew Ovi was 1000% accurate! * STILL isn't trusted by his coaches in a defensive role in the playoffs and you may want to check his plus/minus and time used on the power-kill.... So yes... I'll tell you what every single NHL expert, player, and coach has been saying for the past 7yrs - Marner is the ONLY reliable defensive player of the core-4. And if you want to look at who's ''flubbed'' more in the playoffs (are you for real?!) Check who has the most playoff points of the core-4 in the past 7yrs. And just remind me once again, who was it that ''blew a tire'' then later claimed he wasn't feeling well when the video footage showed him not even making an attempt to cover his man?
@cmac35302 ай бұрын
@@mattrix4200 Are you ok? Matthews has had one minus season (-9 in '18-'19) and then, other than his rookie year at +2, he has never dipped below +19 in his career. His last 2 seasons were +31, which literally lead the entire Leafs team. Barkov, who won the Selke had a +33... Marner was only +21 And how does every single "NHL Expert", know Matthews is not as good defensively when they all literally voted Matthews as the 3rd best defensive forward in the game today?? You're right that it was the narrative early in his career but, he has obviously grown and matured into one of the best defensive forwards in the game. If you can't see that then you're blind or willfully ignorant...
@shreksswamp11822 ай бұрын
Reading these comments makes me realize just how delusional leafs fans rlly are LOL
@Maranatha120902 ай бұрын
dumbest question this week
@skyblue26362 ай бұрын
Marner could come back and hurt you.
@johnsummerhill83232 ай бұрын
No.
@TheHowMan682 ай бұрын
Jesse being a GM wouldn’t be good..because he loves Mitch Missed The PLAYOFFS Marner…and Captain Soft as your Captain. He’ll stay at the Black Jack table dealing him 17s forever
@DPSARAUJO2 ай бұрын
Nope. No fn way never
@ronsingh65212 ай бұрын
Not a chance in hell.
@bernardoxhaferaj92562 ай бұрын
Im so tired of Marner talk. Please stoppp
@alltheworldsastage.2 ай бұрын
Fk no. Stop this bull crap M M isnt going anywhere and u know it. They just got a new coach who can show the pos marner to grow up
@timhenderson97942 ай бұрын
You must be joking lol
@markvilleneuve55372 ай бұрын
Um nope...that makes zero sense. Marner for a top rated Dman I would certainly consider.
@daltonm.strongman23972 ай бұрын
So trade Marner for a worse version of marner yea ill pass
@Ahmadmallah882 ай бұрын
Ever heard a thing called cap space?
@darcys8422 ай бұрын
@@Ahmadmallah88you know with this contract necas makes more then marner against the salary cap right? (Edit: i completely misread the contract and thought it was 13 per year, sorry im just wrong here) He has never put up the same numbers as marner and is far worse in the playoffs just based on points (30 points in 59 playoff games compared to marners 50 in 57). People complain about marner not showing up in the playoffs physically and yeah, its a problem. But instead of just giving up on the guy who has the most playoff points points on the team, maybe we should consider building around our weaknesses. Of course cap space is a big problem, but i think the management needs to sit down with these key players and tell them straight up: either take a paycut to go for a cup, or walk. That hasn't been done with the leafs in this era, and id be willing to bet its what will happen with Tavares, and probably Marner too. Tavares will probably agree to a more team friendly deal, given his current contract was considered team friendly when he signed it. Marner remains to be seen, i hope he does considering i enjoy his game and like i said, of all the leafs players he has the most playoff points while as a leaf. Id say that warrents enough to at least try and keep him around when the big complaint is that they don't show up in the playoffs
@millionfish2 ай бұрын
Is he a worse version of Marner in the playoffs?
@darcys8422 ай бұрын
@@millionfish yes, he has almost half marners points in around the same amount of games
@millionfish2 ай бұрын
@@darcys842 And that justifies paying Marner 12+ for another 8 years to play soft, perimeter hockey and get knocked out early?
@JAM_MCG2 ай бұрын
I thought Steve had a lion tattoo on his shoulder, what's this loon thing going on? 😄
@J.G.Wentworth694202 ай бұрын
Looks gay
@JAM_MCG2 ай бұрын
@@J.G.Wentworth69420 wow...... what is wrong with you
@shreksswamp11822 ай бұрын
1000% younger, MUCH better contract and with that you could add other players. Cap space is gold and with that trade you would be saving over 5 mil… that’s a guy like pesce or debrusk from this free agency.. Marner is a solid reg season player but is probably the biggest folder in the league come playoff time.
@aaamm40102 ай бұрын
Marner is to important to the leafs, answer to the question big No.
@mannyo29092 ай бұрын
Total homer response.
@aaamm40102 ай бұрын
@@mannyo2909yes and proud to be one
@millionfish2 ай бұрын
"Important" to never winning in the playoffs, right?
@mannyo29092 ай бұрын
@@aaamm4010 that is fine but you’re not very rational.
@J.G.Wentworth694202 ай бұрын
@@mannyo2909is like Stockholm syndrome for a losing team
@Mick-zz2 ай бұрын
Dangle - what's with the look? Doesn't work, trust me.
@tankdiggs89742 ай бұрын
I have been so not agreeing with everything Stee says recently
@Maranatha120902 ай бұрын
i cant listen to this
@arcticmonkey32 ай бұрын
Awful sleeve Steve.
@late36192 ай бұрын
LOL
@floxy202 ай бұрын
As a non Leaf fan they simply have to get rid of Marner now. He's a proven certified playoff dud.
@uncleike62112 ай бұрын
I would trade Marner for a bag of pucks if it means getting his obscene contract off the salary cap.
@kimepp22162 ай бұрын
I would keep Marner, Tavarres comes off the books next season. Then use that money for a defense man
@jimbeaver272 ай бұрын
guys get real, the only reason the Leafs did not win the cup last year was goal tending
@jsquared10132 ай бұрын
You spelled "make it out of the first round" wrong.
@alltheworldsastage.2 ай бұрын
Lets trade a really good player whose the biggest pos in nhl. Have you realized the coach treated marner like a child he is. This new coach going to light a fire