SEMI FINAL DRAW Analysis - EUROVISION 2025

[@eurovisionhistories]

Forgot to give Ireland, Australia a bump for being in the same semi as UK and each other ;(

[@eurovisionhistories]

Plus Sweden, Norway, Iceland...

[@garryd7748]

Ireland is a little friendly to Australia, but not really the UK. Our biggest voting friends in Eurovision by a long way are definitely the Nordic countries.

[@earhin_eraendhir]

As for me, the longer is qualification streak - the higher are the expectations, so it's becoming more and more difficult to match them. E. g., the last year I've heard some eurofans talking about Marcus & Martinus: "Good song, but it's not what you'd expect from Sweden". I think this may affect the voting, especially the televoting. I'm already thrilled to watch your alalysis of EMA, Vidbir and UMK. Itching to know your opinion on the songs I've already heard.

[@susanasantos9113]

Happy that Portugal has our Spanish Iberian brothers to help us ❤

[@MariaM-zh6bg]

Portugal siempre lleva calidad.

[@mrgreatbritain]

Wake up guys, the Euronerds are back in force! Haha

[@licorivivaldi3110]

What a pleasure seing you again, Eurovision Histories and what a surprise seeing also on your backround the trademark of my hometown, Thessaloniki, Greece (the White Tower), along with that of Athens (the Parthenon, of course). Althought I am not a superstitious person at all, still I like the fact the we are competing in the 2nd Semi Final, as Tuesday the 13th is the "bad luck day" for Greeks, as Friday the 13th is for others. And, since I still cannot decide between Klavdia or Enangelia, I seriously think about voting for the two gentlemen ("Paradise"). Let's have fun tomorrow and enjoy a great Eurovision year! Greetings from Greece!

[@arsenicc.68]

fingers crossed for estonia 🇪🇪🤞🏻

[@Eurovision_obsessed]

Albania 🇦🇱 and Armenia 🇦🇲 are separated after being in the same semi finals ever since 2017 😪

[@nocri2067]

As part of the Polish diaspora living in Germany I'm kinda disappointed I can't vote for Poland this year, because their selection (Gaja, Lusterka, Tempo, and I quite like Janusz Radek too) looks really promising this year. 😞 I didn't care much about Luna, Blanka, or Rafał, but if they send any of my top 3 I would absolutely vote for them this year. Too bad we're not in the same semi.

[@natasafortuna6521]

This was very interesting. After all is done, please compare the results. 😉

[@ullarajala4784]

Really good video once again. It is so good having you back! 😊

[@eurovisionhistories]

Thank youuuu

[@ΔημήτρηςΚ-ν5τ]

I love these videos ❤

[@eurovisionhistories]

Thank youuu

[@BrynjarReynisson]

I would also like to add about Poland they have a big diaspora here in Iceland and we often give them a lot of points. Like last year we gave Luna 8 points in the semi and we gave Blanka 10 points in the semi and 7 points in the final in 2023. So that helps Poland out but not a lot to help Iceland out. Sweden and Norway have not given us a lot of points except for when we have a great song like Daði and Hatari

[@elaychscrazyworld4173]

And even than, the fact Norway gave 12 points to the Roop undermined my hypothesis that they would have given that to Dadi the previous year, though I think Sweden still would have, as the mainland Nordics lacked televote bait in 2020 but all went for it in 2022

[@elaychscrazyworld4173]

*2021 I mean with Blind channel, TiX, Fyr oh flamme

[@berlineczka]

Hatari got 12 points from Poland in the semi and 10 in the final. Polish voters generally likes edgier, harder songs (they also gave a lot of points to e.g. Käärijä, Maneskin, Blind Chanel or Go_A, and allegedly gave 80% of the votes to Jann in the 2023 preselection), and whoever is in the semi with Poland and has a harder song (rock, industrial, etc.) usually profits. Unfortunately, this year Iceland's preselection is basic Nordic pop/dance only. I wouldn't count on Polish votes on that.

[@TheMrPushy]

I really enjoyed this breakdown, well done! What I would have liked to see added though is all the current information we have, and moving all the countries up or down based on that. The countries we know nothing about would stay where they are. But for instance, Latvia and Ireland have to get a massive bump for their selections and seeing Norway's selection I feel they should be way further down.

[@eurovisionhistories]

That is coming once we know the songs that are actually chosen. I mean sometimes the best song isn't even selected ;)

[@TheMrPushy]

@eurovisionhistories Good point, remember Iceland 2024 😂

[@GilmourAttard-s5p]

I love your statistics vand prediction

[@nikocrossstitch]

San Marino has very good chances to qualify, if they will choose GRISANA. It's a Ukrainian singer, which wasn't included in shortlist by producers, but has a nice song which became popular among ukrainian eurofans. So she decided to try to qualify with San Marino, which is obviously much easier. And Ukraine is in the same semis. So, 10 or 12 points from Ukraine to San Marino in the semis is quite realistic thing. Plus, maybe some votes from diaspora. So do not discard San Marino too soon.

[@earhin_eraendhir]

BTW, I'm not sure if it's OK with the rules of ESC. Can the song already announced as a participant in national selections of one country participate in selections of other country? Just asking, not assuming.

[@fonsie_games]

For what I know, as long as it was released after 1 september, yes

[@sarahenchanted]

The Hungarian band Carson Coma is participating and they have pretty good music and are pretty professional. If all goes well with SM then I could see good things happening.

[@emdove]

​@@earhin_eraendhir I think there's no overarching rule against it, but some national finals don't permit entering other national selections.

[@EurovisionESC]

If grisana goes to esc, that's an absolute EZ qualifier, no matter what. If it's only a 2 min song, the song itself it's just a blast to listen

[@nolbol1754]

It's a great draw for Malta and it's about time we have Australia and UK voting I think they have a great chance to qualify this year if they select the correct song

[@6891x]

Nice but completely useless in reality.

[@eurovisionhistories]

Exactly 😅

[@sarahenchanted]

With Poland, I think they need to have a strong/interesting song to qualify and if they send something good and don't flop on the staging they probably can be in the final with or without the diaspora countries in the same semi. Also last year they had diaspora and neighbors served up on a silver platter and still didn't qualify because the staging and vocals weren't all there (and it didn't help that the first half of semi 1 last year had 3 big fan favorites) At the moment I would say Albania will probably be one of the safest qualifiers. I know things can change and the final product could end up not being successful but right now I think they're on a good track.

[@Pierniq83]

Based on the average points assigned to Poland, we could estimate that Poland would get about 63 points. If Poland were in the second semi-final, we could have 64 points, so a little more. That’s statistic 😊

[@Eurovision_obsessed]

My quick prediction Semi one Qualifiers: 🇳🇱 🇸🇪 🇦🇱 🇪🇪 🇵🇱 🇵🇹 🇸🇲 🇧🇪 🇭🇷 🇺🇦 Non Qualifiers: 🇳🇴 🇨🇾 🇸🇮 🇮🇸 🇦🇿 Semi two Qualifiers: 🇱🇻 🇬🇷 🇲🇪 🇮🇱 🇱🇹 🇬🇪 🇫🇮 🇦🇲 🇮🇪 🇲🇹 Non qualifiers: 🇩🇰 🇦🇹 🇦🇺 🇨🇿 🇱🇺 🇷🇸

[@aleksapetkovic8722]

You crazy Serbia is always Q Montenegro Qualified?hahahahqhqhaahahah you stupid and crazy Montengro is 2nd semifinal and balads out...

[@sisarka468]

Luxembourg is qualifying, Czechia also seems likely

[@TheManInBlueFlames]

The only area I would say it massively helps is with the semi that has the UK, Ireland, Australia and Malta, from what I can see, as well as Luxembourg having France.

[@eurovisionhistories]

Yeah I completely forgot UK Ireland and Australia

[@Rafael-br9dd]

Portugal has some allies in this semi: Croatia (gave us points in the last 3 years either at semis or finals), Iceland, Netherlands, Poland (Gave us points in 3 of the last 4 years), Belgium (Diáspora) and Ukraine (large ukranian diaspora here)

[@violatorful]

Especially after croatian 12 to portugal from last year, you gave us 0! Very generously😢

[@costaspom398]

Fun video, thank you! About Cyprus: It doesn't have a big history voting with Ireland, plus the last years the UK support is very little, i don't think it's more than average (1pt in the semi last year for example)

[@nikolag.-rb5ql]

At this point I would be a little bit happier that my Croatia end in semi 2. Look at the POTENTIAL entries who can end in the SF1: Mans🇸🇪, Tommy Cash🇪🇪, Mentissa/Red Sebastian🇧🇪, Justyna🇵🇱, Albania🇦🇱 with definitely song which is Q material, than powerhouses likes Ukraine🇺🇦, Netherlands🇳🇱 and Norway🇧🇻. We definitely can qualify, I'm optimistic because there are 2-3 entries which is definitely a Q material, but we should pick smart this year. Also, I'm rooting that Montenegro🇦🇱 Q and break their long NQ streak.

[@mickeymickey570]

Ukraine will qualify for 100%. Potential winners of vidbir are not that bad to not qualify into the final lol. I like it much more than Belgium. Still don't understand the hype from bookmakers about it. Albania has a great song, really hope for a good place in the final for them. Good luck to Croatia, BTW!

[@Zakarias89]

People who have early access to the Swedish selection say that John Lundviks song is exceptionally good this year. We might not send Måns this year, but we'll see. Lundviks song is released on Friday

[@ESC-ep]

Don't forget about portugal, they have one of the srtongest nf this year and a lot of "friends country" in the semi-final

[@nikolag.-rb5ql]

@ESC-ep Yes, you are right about Portugal, sorry. This semi could be incredibly strong. I know that we don't know the songs, but at this point I am quite worried about Iceland, Slovenia and San Marino. Even powerhouse Norway is not sure bet, cause their NF this year is weaker than usual. And the real mystery is Azerbaijan, what they gonna do this year.

[@ESC-ep]

@@nikolag.-rb5ql i think norway is safe for now, lighter and the game can easily qualify, instead slovenia with this nf have no chance unfortunately

[@Sniper-Piper16]

If Grisana will represent san-Marion, they will qualify

[@silencestation557]

First time ever (since introducing two semis) there won't be any of our closest neighbours in the same SF with us. I mean other Baltics or Finland. No idea if it does even matter whatsoever but still, something feels off 😕.

[@EurovisionESC]

Norway is about to get a NQ this year

[@wk7852]

Many Poles live in Iceland, Netherlands and Sweden so polish diaspora there might help a bit

[@eurovisionhistories]

True

[@sarahenchanted]

damn Poles are giving Ukrainians a run for their money in terms of big diasporas

[@sunwalek]

Don't forget about Norway...

[@ThaGamingMisfit]

Statistics hype ! Looks like some countries in Semi 2 will on a positive tractory this year ! I was pretty happy with the draw for my country Belgium, second half and again together with our friendly rivalry neighbors, but it's going to be fighting for 8 spots because Sweden and Ukraine just have to show up to qualify 🤣

[@eurovisionhistories]

Who do you think was most helped/hurt by the draw?

[@akanichts267]

I think San Marino is most hurt, such a strong semi for them... Their show has to be crazy strong. Most helped is difficult but I would say Armenia, too.

[@akanichts267]

I think sf1 is much more exciting of who will qualify. OT: I wanted to buy tickets this time. The plan of my friend and me: Semi Final 1: Live-Show Category 1 Semi Final 2: Live-Show Category 1 Final: Public Viewing in the Arena Plus, Category 3 What we got: Semi Final 1: Evening Show Floor Semi Final 2: Absolutely nothing Final: Public Viewing in the Arena Plus, Category 3 (Inside of this category 1st row, which actually means that noone will be in front of us) So more or less we got 50 % of what we wanted 🤔😁 (🤞meanwhile I hope I can get something for the sf2 in the next selling wave as my code is still valid (only my friend bought tickets))

[@albanerausmkosovo7539]

I think that if we look at qualification record we should only look at who would've qualified under televote only from 2014-2022, Azerbaijan qualifying with 0 tele points in 2022 and thus pushing their stats doesn't make much statistical sense in televote only semi finals

[@IceTiger347]

I think Luxembourg can have a little bit help from France, my opinion

[@sisarka468]

Also rhe song is in french

[@aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaghasvdghvsjh]

13:14 (talks abt armenia) "and then also greece and georgia, their nighbours" armenians: wait, are we dreaming?

[@eurovisionhistories]

Their neoghbours was refering to Georgia

[@Joanna_Maciejewska1616]

Well, I thought my country's situation isn't that bad, but historically it kinda is 😅 But thank you for these statistics - I was curious but didn't know how to google them so it doesn't take me all day to count

[@eurovisionhistories]

Which is your country?

[@Joanna_Maciejewska1616]

@eurovisionhistories Your eastern neighbour, Poland ;-) Got into Eurovision after watching last Grand Final, so I'm trying to catch up a little by binge-watching this channel. You're super respectful 💪

[@BrynjarReynisson]

My country Iceland with the second lowest qualification rate in the last 10 editions in semi 1😢 We havent been good recently and I don't have high hopes based on the songs in our selection and we're in the first half so I hope we qualify but not high hopes

[@sisarka468]

You just need to choose a song wisely

[@txtxsz]

For me this is what i assume to happen for Semi 2: 1. Latvia (With The Ludvig) 2. Ireland (With Fire) 3. Lithuania (With Ar Mylėtum) 4. Greece (With Astromata) And the rest is unknown ngl

[@rinjoo3]

Been waiting for Semi Final draw analysis videos, but making it purely based on historical statistics when we already know some songs and many national selections feels quite pointless. Norway for example will not be sure qualifier this year for the first time in who knows how long. Estonia will be sure qualifier assuming hey choose Espresso Macchiato, which is likely. And Latvia will be sure qualifier, assuming they pic either Ligo or Ramtai which is likely. And Finland (almost whichever song they pic) and for the certain reasons Israel should be at the top of semi 2 qualifying odds currently. At this point Malta also seems very likely qualifier, assuming they don't screw up with choosing the song, which could be possible. But currently semi 1 seems more competitive, although there is still chance that semi 2 will be the higher quality one. Ukraine/Norway for example seem to have their weakest national selection for a while, meanwhile some usually weaker countries like Latvia has strong one, i feel like there could be some real surprises this year. Semi 2 has one more country though so it balances it little. Montenegro's chances are sadly low since they got put into first half with "just decent" ballad. Also just a note, decreasing Cyrpus just because they don't have Greece, but not decreasing Finland when literally all their friends are in the other semi seems weird. Although if Erika is chosen, im waiting for how Germany votes 🤣.

[@eurovisionhistories]

Ok

[@mickeymickey570]

do you really think that ramtai, espresso macchiato are better than no time to cry?

[@rinjoo3]

@@mickeymickey570 Yes, none of the Ukrainian Vidbir songs sound as interesting as the best songs in the past 3 years of Vidbir, but they tend to do some staging magic even for less interestin songs. This is weak year in Ukraine-standards, but probably still qualifies whichever song they pic because of Ukraine. Quality, but very forgettable song. Ramtai and Espresso Macchiato sound much more unique and memorable even if they are not your genre :) And Ligo is even better than Ramtai, the most interesting song released so far this season.

[@mickeymickey570]

@@rinjoo3 yes, maybe it is weak by ukrainian standards, but weak ukrainian standards I still see in the top 10. Anyway, assuming Ukraine will have any problems to qualify is not serious. I liked Espresso Macchiato too. Good entry from Estonia! But such songs are always a kind of blind game. It can finish at top 10 or it can finish like 20th. A lot depends on staging (Idk how they will manage to do good staging with a song about a man sitting and drinking coffee lmao), and competition. Last year we had a lot of such joke entries, but the audience of these entries is not limitless and they kinda stole points from each other, so none of such songs reached high results. So in terms of prediction, No Time to Cry - a stable pop electronic song with a stable good vocals has better chances imo

[@slovakian_cheese]

Israel got france germany czechia that gives them a lot of points

[@craigpacker7171]

"And then something happened..." That was hilarious!

[@basieluxanno7909]

11:50 why is it unfair for Luxembourg to give 100% the facts are there 😂

[@eurovisionhistories]

If they qualify this year I will give them 100 percent next year ;)

[@healthytrout]

idk as a ukrainian, i am concerned, we might be sending a NQ this year

[@EurovisionESC]

There's no way man. If you send Masha, that's a locked top5. Really doubt there's a chance you don't qualify this year

[@TumbleTower]

Thank you for your video, that's an interesting analysis, taking into account individual countries' qualifications in the last 10 editions, as well as country groups. By the way, how did you calculate the two percentages at the end? My own video review of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 Semi-Final Allocation Draw is available here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/gJCraHpmZamCoZo

[@ESC-ep]

My predictions (don't take it seriously) Semi-final 1 QUALIFIERS: -Sweden 🇸🇪 -Ukraine 🇺🇦 -Norway 🇳🇴 -Portugal 🇵🇹 -Netherlands 🇳🇱 -Estonia 🇪🇪 -Poland 🇵🇱 -Croatia 🇭🇷 -Albania 🇦🇱 -Cyprus 🇨🇾/ Belgium 🇧🇪 NON-QUALIFIERS: -Cyprus 🇨🇾/ Belgium 🇧🇪 -Island 🇮🇸 -Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 -San Marino 🇸🇲 -Slovenia 🇸🇮 Semi-final 2 QUALIFIERS: -Israel 🇮🇱 -Luxembourg 🇱🇺 -Armenia 🇦🇲 -Latvia 🇱🇻 -Czechia 🇨🇿 -Greece 🇬🇷 -Finland 🇫🇮 -Australia 🇦🇺 -Ireland 🇮🇪 -Montenegro 🇲🇪 NON-QUALIFIERS -Georgia 🇬🇪 -Malta 🇲🇹 -Serbia 🇷🇸 -Lithuania 🇱🇹 -Austria 🇦🇹 -Denmark 🇩🇰

[@aleksapetkovic8722]

You crazy Serbia is always Q Montenegro Qualified?hahahahqhqhaahahah you stupid and crazy Montengro is 2nd semifinal and balads out...

[@sisarka468]

I feel like Malta is qualifying (if they choose one of the fan favorites)

[@ESC-ep]

They have a strong nf but i'm worried for because the semi-finals are 100% televote and Malta has 0 diaspora

[@sisarka468]

@ESC-ep The qualified with tele in 2021(2nd place) and 2019(10th place)

[@ElfDraven]

Italy never gives points to Portugal. Spain and Switzerland yes but not Italy. Even thought they should be sympathetic for Portugal's kind of music, they gave zero points to Mimicat, 5 points out of 24 to Maro and in a year that Portugal broke point records they gave only 10 out of 24, making it one of the lowest amounts given by all the countries.

[@eurovisionhistories]

Oh thanks for the explanation ;) that is indeed strange

[@kevincika]

My Q predictions Semi 1 ✅- 🇺🇦🇸🇪🇪🇪🇳🇱🇧🇪🇦🇱🇵🇱 ⚠️- 🇨🇾🇳🇴🇭🇷|🇦🇿🇮🇸🇵🇹 ❌-🇸🇲🇸🇮 Semi 2 ✅-🇫🇮🇮🇱🇬🇷🇨🇿🇱🇻🇱🇹🇮🇪 ⚠️-🇦🇹🇦🇺🇦🇲|🇷🇸🇬🇪🇲🇹🇱🇺🇩🇰 ❌-🇲🇪

[@aleksapetkovic8722]

You crazy Serbia is always Q.

[@EurovisionESC]

Idk why you so sure about Finland qualifying. It's a weak umk and especially if erika wins, NQ is very likely. As for San Marino, if grisana ends up representing them, that's almost guaranteed qualification...

[@sisarka468]

San Marino will qualify if they choose Grisana and Montenegro can also qualify

[@sisarka468]

I don't like Erika's song but I see many people loving it, so I think it's likely to qualify

[@OlayaSoyYo]

9:46 Georgia qualified last year. 🤍