Seriously, Is Trump Really THAT BAD for Grain Prices??

[@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff]

I said the wrong date. It's November 14th. Happy Thursday! Is Trump really that bad for grain prices??

[@PrestigeWorldWidePWW]

Where did my comment go?

[@joshuas7618]

@@PrestigeWorldWidePWW My spicy comment got deleted yesterday too. Censorship is so 1984...

[@xx-lk3bx]

@@joshuas7618 Watch out for Elon Musk

[@pete1342]

​@@PrestigeWorldWidePWWDid you dare to insult the criminal orange fuhrer? 😂

[@Johnnywalleye1]

A trade war with out the infrastructure to protect your interests is a bad idea.

[@scottsmith6631]

Since the election, the US dollar has been on a rocket ride. Stronger dollar = weaker commodity prices. It might be just that simple right now.

[@RoyClariana]

Tariffs will raise supermarket prices

[@joshuaerickson2458]

25% tariif from US plus retaliatory 25% tariff from Mexico = 50% price increase overnight

[@billm9775]

@@joshuaerickson2458 Commercial beef is going to be insane with Mexico tariffs.

[@petem.3719]

Trade wars? No prob. We corn farmers look forward to becoming welfare queens, just like our soybean-growing counterparts. Buyers are front loading grain just like buyers of everything else. That alone = inflation guarantee.

[@jimsummers487]

DJT will outspend both FDR/reagan combined….. He is already ranked #3 after only 4 years

[@lilblackduc7312]

Insanity worldwide is so rampant that a single New York Yankee businessman has parts of the global economy flipping out. Being "Daffy" doesn't seem so daffy, anymore...🤔😳

[@neilroidt3250]

I think negotions are needed, This should help over all I believe. We need to get Mexico the GMO free corn they are looking for. My opinions

[@tomtibbits4423]

The way I understand is Mexico only wants food grade GMO free corn. Someone that grows that spec can make huge premiums. They are using commodity corn for livestock feed, my.

[@davidkottman3440]

Does anyone know if they are really trying to source the stuff, or is it just a way to protect domestic farmers from imports?

[@davidadcock3382]

They can have all the non gmo corn they want now if they want to pay the premium.

[@jimsummers487]

Retaliatory tariffs will turn farmers into welfare recipients

[@joekeusch5995]

Not a chance.

[@gregjames5070]

Trump crashed the soybean market last time and then sent out the largest round of subsidies in history. We’re still trying to recover from his tariffs.

[@davidadcock3382]

@@joekeusch5995 You are not very well education with history. Trump's tariffs with the Trade war with China has been worse for American Agriculture than Jimmy Carter's grain embargo in 1980 that took a generation to overcome. The Tariffs Trump put on China are still in place and the American people are still paying those Tariffs. Tariffs have been Highly inflationary for the American people and it is the American people who pay the Tariffs. American Farmers today are shaking in their shoes from worry on which one of our markets will he ruin next. Tariffs don't work thus the reason Trump lost the trade war with China. China went to South America and help them tear down the rainforest so South America could provide China with the grain they needed. We have lost that market forever and now South America takes China's money instead of Americans.

[@jimsummers487]

Then don’t cash the government check

[@user-zu2bw7ig5v]

Too many farmers are worried about themselves and not the big picture. They just want to keep the gravy train rollin. So frustrating

[@JackHawkinswrites]

Deleted posts don’t really go away. The underlying truth remains.

[@GlenironPa]

I like that you use "Bloomberg" and "Reuters" for some of your info.. They are straight up factual information sources. "How China reduced its reliance on US farm imports, softening trade war risks" is another good Reuters piece showing what China is doing and has done to secure it's food sources without the US.

[@steven4315]

Mexicans have acres and acres of pride. They are very sensitive (historically for good reason) to any US attempts to force them into anything. The fact that it just makes good sense for Mexico to keep buying US corn may not matter.

[@robjus1601]

You reap what you sow!

[@MrEroshan]

Y'all get what you voted for. China will shop elsewhere. Hope farmers can figure out real quick how to fill the gaps before next growing season. Or you will see farm auctions like the late 1980's. Trade negotiations are a no go, crops grow once a year and you plan around that.

[@joekeusch5995]

B.S. farming has been really good the last 15 years for grain guys. If people are cutting it close they have nobody to blame but themselves.

[@user-zu2bw7ig5v]

Manage your money better and quit leaching off of the government aka tax payers

[@full5rounds449]

In the medium to long term, the major issue that you're missing is RFKJ's stance on GMO and glyphosate. My personal guess is that you're looking at a 10-20% yield reduction across the board. Add to that a strong dislike for seed oils in food and there's a big re-structuring coming.

[@user-zu2bw7ig5v]

It needs to happen!

[@fredf3391]

Good Morning Y'all know you don't gut programs or ideas that working .You try to improve them and move on

[@davidoverwoods]

Maybe farmers should start producing food again for Americans. And get Elon cut the red tape on stuff. Crop change. I know it's not easy but my family has done it throughout the years. If these crops aren't profitable, change. That would be like a factory worker get pay docked by half so they work 80hrs instead of 40hr then apply for welfare instead of quitting the job that dosent pay and going down the street. You'd say what's the matter with you? I understand there are circumstances that make that easy said but American farmers can figure out innovations. I do think that keeping good with Mexico and Canada would be a good idea though. But countries that would love to see America go under why would we make it easy on them? Just my opinion not stating it as fact and constantly trying to learn.

[@user-zu2bw7ig5v]

Your spot on

[@davidoverwoods]

I will say though that Americans have been spoiled and it will take awhile for people to understand and realize what products are actually worth. I've had multiple people complain about my prices, then they try to raise or produce same product and it's a awakening for them.

[@Neo72]

1:23 Didn’t Trump bankrupt the farmers the last time? Just asking questions.

[@jasperstarr6804]

Yes. And lest we forget - one of the first things he did when he took office in 2017 was to cancel the TPP (trans Pacific partnership), a trade deal that Obama had been working out for years, because he had to erase everything Obama. The TPP purposely excluded China (to disempower them), but included every other country around the Pacific rim, and we had deals with those countries to purchase a lot of US ag exports. Once Trump killed it, all of those export opportunities went away as those countries found other sources. And when Trump put tariffs on Chinese goods, China retaliated by stopping the purchase of soybeans from the US. The brilliant negotiator...

[@joekeusch5995]

Nope. A lot of guys made a lot of money those years.

[@pete1342]

Farm bankruptcies reached an all time high under trump.

[@kylec1154]

If they did they were welfare queens. Trump broke more farmers than anyone till his inflation exploding 62 billion dollar gift to farmers that he’d broke with his China Tariffs.

[@Leslie-y9l]

He will this time because Project 2025 ELIMINATES all subsidies, Biofuels, Ethanol plants and mostly direct-to-farmer subsidies so you will have to survive on what the market gives you. Trade wars already started. @ days ago, Chine cancelled 34.5 Billion of grain trade. So if you voted for Frumpy, you are going to get what you want. Meanwhile when all these farms start going bankrupt, Bill Gates, Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio will gladly step in and buy your farms and then rent them back to, if you can afford it, at $300-400 an acre so they can pay their investors a decent ROI.

[@sandsock]

peter zeihan is saying china is going to break apart and collapse in the next 10-15 years, because of the aging population and lack of replacement. russia is in the same boat. we should be working on trade to india

[@Flatlanderexpress]

india .hindu.land of the sacred cow.where the big industry is turning cow manure into edible pellets for human consumption.and bovine urine is collected and bottled for human consumption. sounds like a great business partner

[@chillxxx241]

India can grow its own food. They still have allot of uncultivated land too.

[@leroymorris6036]

Mexico can't do much are you kidding? Now were afraid of tiny Mexico?

[@wheatking01]

Canada and Mexico already have a trade deal. Why mess with what is working.

[@steven4315]

My factory closed and moved to Mexico. So how exactly is it working? You want to compete against $3 an hour labor?

[@wheatking01]

@steven4315 Then quit shipping corn, quit making trade deals. Become totally insular, pay way too much for lazy factory workers. The US rural economy is a net exporter. The US farmer needs trade deals to ensure a market for its goods.

[@steven4315]

@@wheatking01 By paying way to much you mean more than $3 an hour?

[@polishtheday]

@@steven4315 The minimum wage in Canada, which varies a bit by province, is around $16-$17 per hour and our even our temporary agricultural workers have better labour protections than those in the U.S. A couple of them that I know are working on obtaining permanent residence and, once they get that, Canadian citizenship, which takes another five years. They’re a great benefit to our country.

[@steven4315]

@@polishtheday In the US immigrants both legal and illegal are looked at (wrongly) as a drain on resources.

[@michaelleach4868]

If history tells you anything in 2019 how many farmers went out of business thanks to his policy. China and Mexico will find knew markets.

[@billm9775]

China is already moving to Brazil for trade, they are getting ready to replace the US with Brazilian exports in 2025. China is also strengthening trade deals with Mexico.

[@calvinang1]

​@@billm9775💯

[@RoyClariana]

Trump is amping up a 50 year trend towards isolationism, now that the US is oil energy independent, it is possible and likely. Due to US demogra[hics, the US needs Canada and Mexico has close trading partners.

[@cucvfarmer]

The dirty little secret is we can't refine most of our oil we produce.

[@carlpreston1680]

Not all crude is created equal either depending on where it comes from it has different uses That's why we have to import some

[@RoyClariana]

@ right, our new crude is superior, light and sweet, but our refineries are tuned to the poorer stuff, the refineries will refit to take advantage of the locally available supply

[@davidadcock3382]

@@RoyClariana False. We do not have the refinery capacity to refine all the crude oil we produce. We have not built one refinery in 60 years and we lost 9 percent of our refinery capacity with Hurricane Ida on 8-24-21. Our refineries run at full capacity and shortages are made up by Ethanol and Soyoil.

[@user-zu2bw7ig5v]

​@@davidadcock3382 there is billionaires today ready to build refineries

[@bourbonbrowntrademanagement]

On a world grain price, the answer is a big yes. But it does not mean Trump will be bad for north american farmers. They can still get tons of subsidies to overcome any grain price down movement. For South American farmers for sure the scenario is very bad. Stronger U$ = expensive inputs. Tarif war = lower grain prices. And no subsidies at all in Brazil and Argentina laws. It just don't exist. Only my opinion. I may be wrong. But I am all in short grains in Chicago right now.

[@chadspurling7411]

Yeah. That's pretty much how the 80's farm crisis happened.

[@billm9775]

So your solution to keep farmers in business is welfare? Not opening new markets or increasing crop prices, just printing billions of dollars a year to keep them afloat? Sounds like a recipe for another 80's style bust.

[@jimmy999-z2j]

Good report

[@Plan_it-Farm]

Domestic beef prices are going to crank rumors are tariffs on imported beef from Australia as well. Good time for grain farmers to plant cover crops and start grazing cattle. That will help get us off the chemical inputs get livestock on the landscape. Or grain farmers at least can plant non-GMO for Mexico.

[@sandsock]

we started grazing wheat and adding wheat into grass and clover, for better volumes hay for beef cows. [central ohio] . if we go single crop with wheat and graze off the regrowth going into fall and winter. i think that is where it is at. then put in beans or corn the next year.

[@billm9775]

large amount of beef is grown in Mexico for its early life, all that will be subject to tariffs. That was a huge sticking point to the USMCA. Expect beef prices to go up as well.

[@brucejacobs3161]

Yes Trump is that bad for grain prices back when he was in office the first time our grain markets plummeted the costs to Farmers raised because he was playing games with tariffs

[@user-zu2bw7ig5v]

He's better for the US over all. There's going to be some suffering with some industries suck it up and look at the big picture. Farmers are too worried about themselves and have become too dependent on the gov.

[@Melrose51653]

You'll find out. Probably not helpful asking the question in a vacuum

[@2234Cy]

Wait until he installs his tariffs. Going too bad for the grain markets and farmers . Add in provisions for fuel blenders and the hit to ethanol.

[@cyclewisconsin105]

Corn is not a good choice for turning into fuel. Hemp produces 2.7 times the BTU's per acre compared to corn.

[@Zero01k]

Many people have been burnt on the hemp scam in the last several years

[@EricCarlson-bz2pt]

Easier to control food supply if everyone grows corn.

[@GregElbert-ug9kt]

I agree these countries know what's going to happen trump is a negotiator nothing is going to get fixed fast and there is going to be blood spilled in farming next 2 years ever things is over priced

[@NasForahtu]

China is working with Argentina who is blowing up from the new China trading agreement.

[@mikehiggins2621]

Your forgot to mention Bitcoin at ATH, $91k

[@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff]

People get mad when I talk about it lol.

[@EricCarlson-bz2pt]

Why is the all mighty Bitcoin priced in dollars?

[@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff]

@@EricCarlson-bz2pt You can price it however you want. I've seen people track BTC vs. gold, real estate, silver, crude, etc.

[@PrestigeWorldWidePWW]

​@@GrainMarketsandOtherStuffwho cares?

[@EricCarlson-bz2pt]

​@@GrainMarketsandOtherStuffExactly my point.

[@brianberns3028]

Big Ag needs a reset, maybe this election is the beginning of that.

[@tapitXq9]

What is the definition of BIG AG?

[@brianberns3028]

I think it starts with large corporations and groups, pushing their products/ideas as best practices instead of looking at how the natural ecosystems function as a whole.

[@Ligmajohnson1989]

Exactly. Why plant more and more corn and beans if the world doesn’t want or need it?

[@lilblackduc7312]

What the economy really needs is an enema.

[@tapitXq9]

@@Ligmajohnson1989 one answer to that is if the "just right" amount of acres is planted and there is bad weather the shortfall is not good. Food always needs to be over produced. Only the excess needs a home.

[@HenryVanBeek]

Nov 14

[@curtoeltjenbruns8913]

Joe, thanks for your fresh perspective. I'm tired of listening to all of the gloom and doom from a couple of other anti Trump analysts

[@2992texley]

Gotta crack a few eggs to make an omelette. Stuff isn’t going to get better overnight. If the goal is to make our economy less dependent on the globalized economy then stuff might be a little rough, but that can provide the opportunity for more diverse domestic markets. Imagine having a farm diversified enough where if corn prices are low, it may be annoying but isn’t a crisis.

[@davidkottman3440]

The complexities of a really diverse farm is great enough most people can't do it at scale... certainly most can add something though.

[@jimsummers487]

Trump will send farmers government cheese with his name on it…… Trump-cheese will save your family farm

[@richardduke9788]

After discussions with Mexico about immigration , Pre Trump could exclude agriculture products from the tariff increases .

[@KCAATV]

Anyone who believes that Trump is the answer does not understand the question.

[@michaelleffler5219]

Remember, tariffs are not an end game, but rather a negotiation tactic to level trade playing fields and to get the desired parties (countries) to the table. The US has a disadvantage in virtually every trade deal except the USMCA, of course. To most of the rest of the world; the 80s and 90s called, they want their trade deals back. As a producer, this is a tough nut to crack, but as the realization that, in fact, the CCP is a real threat to the West, always has been, and needs to be addressed as such, doesn't bode well with where producers stand in all this potentially. 45's term has shown that that administration was mindful and responded to the pain producers experienced. Something tells me that 47's administration will address this pain if it arrises in it's efforts to balance the entire world trade playing field and leverage the US's strengths for the 21st century.

[@lutomson3496]

level the playing field is one thing..protectionism is another if you study some of the import export agreements we have with other countries in detail you will find both, the protectionism garbage is bad, level playing field is good, we are good at some things we are not good at all things, if people understood this concept this country would be in a better place just my own 2c

[@billm9775]

Needing to bail out farmers at $32Billion a year while Brazil and Mexico are lining up to fill China's needs is good for who? Trump places tariffs on Mexico and they no longer have a reason to keep up the USMCA, and retaliatory tariffs would severely cripple commercial beef.

[@brucebruhn5620]

Is there a preferred hard hat for analysts to protect y’all from the sky falling and if so are they made in china .

[@davidkottman3440]

Lol, we probably should rewatch the movie "Finding Nemo" & just keep swimming.... it's all we can do anyway, unless it's time to retire.

[@mvanhasenheimer]

Corn is cheap should see more sales. Land prices up 550%, corn prices up 70% from 30 yrs ago.

[@davidkottman3440]

Yields up 100%, inflation & inputs up & farm size up... outside land investment way up! Lots of moving parts to land prices

[@mvanhasenheimer]

A new F150 is 3 times today what it was 30 yrs ago. The auto industry has increased productivity like on the farm and their inputs have gone up to. Not trying to blame anyone. Just think that beginning farmers have their work cut out for them.

[@Metallicgray_6.7]

@@mvanhasenheimerBeginning farmers have almost zero chance unless equipment, land is handed down to them.

[@Samy-c8o]

Don't worry. You are needed for ever. Can you feed and fill empty belly like djt. Have you taken a gander of his belly 😊 or even solve world hunger... 😊😊😊

[@brucewyoming2499]

If you haven't read the book art of the deal by trump i think you really need too much of his strategy is based on how he sets it up i am very positive on his cabinet picks and there is a very good chance he will be good for farmers

[@davedixon2068]

like he was last time

[@davidadcock3382]

How did it work out the last time??? Trump's tariffs with the Trade war with China has been worse for American Agriculture than Jimmy Carter's grain embargo in 1980 that took a generation to overcome. The Tariffs Trump put on China are still in place and the American people are still paying those Tariffs. Tariffs have been Highly inflationary for the American people and it is the American people who pay the Tariffs. American Farmers today are shaking in their shoes from worry on which one of our markets will he ruin next. Tariffs don't work thus the reason Trump lost the trade war with China. China went to South America and help them tear down the rainforest so South America could provide China with the grain they needed. We have lost that market forever and now South America takes China's money instead of Americans.

[@dalecoffing8655]

Trump is a "Deal Maker" he would rather make a deal than have a terrif war. IMO.

[@scottjanes9074]

Trump was never a deal maker, that was a fictional "reality show". His lawyer, Roy Cohn did his "deals" if that's what you want to call them. Trump has run every business he had on his own right into the ground.

[@bkrafter]

I only know a little about Trump's bad decision making regarding tariffs and the bad deal for farmers. I do know about his cognitive decline and his total inability to make rational decisions because of it.

[@brianberns3028]

@@bkrafter I think you have him confused with our current president.

[@davidadcock3382]

@@brianberns3028 I think he was talking about both of them!!!

[@JamesWest-iu4jx]

Certainly a bad decision for Mary to NOT have an abortion

[@EricCarlson-bz2pt]

If we grow local food for local consumption, you don't need anyone.

[@WJV9]

But we don't do we? We grow food to export and just like 6 years ago if our overseas grain customers cancel orders due to China tariffs. That bankrupted thousands of farmers and gov't taxpayers had to spend about 30 billion dollars to partially make up for export losses. Thanks Donald.

[@EricCarlson-bz2pt]

​@@WJV9FOOD is the key word.

[@JohnWood-h2f]

Rumpt is a deal breaker.

[@kensweetser6901]

Trump will end these wars and close the southern border under. Farmers and truckers for Trump

[@billm9775]

Truckers are going to make less money when overtime and safety rules are repealed, farmers are going to have a hard time finding workers as migrants don't come back. Trucking is already having a hard time finding drivers because the salary has been so low, and killing unions is just going to drive it lower. Exports will face tariffs from trade partners driving down demand for US Ag products and other markets already restrict US Ag exports due to quality concerns. This is not doom and gloom, this is what has happened already. Farmers still have not recovered lost markets from the 2018 tariffs. And as for wars, have you seen the hawks he has in place? They are talking about taking the leash off Ukraine and allowing them to attack into Russia and they are all about the Israel Gaza war.

[@carlpreston1680]

Yeah remember when steel prices jumped overnight and they never came back down since because of the tariffs

[@xx-lk3bx]

@@billm9775 100 % correct. Good luck.

[@scottdougherty4251]

Trump had 4 years to close the border and couldn't get it done

[@billcarlson1730]

I just unsubscribed from this channel. I can get the markets without the political bullshit elsewhere.

[@leroymorris6036]

Trump is not bad for grain markets, every change has its growing pains, take a breathe...The trade war won't last very long!

[@Mazel_Tov_888]

I don't think China is in a fighting mood, but I think Mex is.

[@deere7227]

Donald burnt the bridge to China. They have built needed infrastructure in South America. Only come to US when SA empty

[@davidadcock3382]

Trump's tariffs with the Trade war with China has been worse for American Agriculture than Jimmy Carter's grain embargo in 1980 that took a generation to overcome. The Tariffs Trump put on China are still in place and the American people are still paying those Tariffs. Tariffs have been Highly inflationary for the American people and it is the American people who pay the Tariffs. American Farmers today are shaking in their shoes from worry on which one of our markets will he ruin next. Tariffs don't work thus the reason Trump lost the trade war with China. China went to South America and help them tear down the rainforest so South America could provide China with the grain they needed. We have lost that market forever and now South America takes China's money instead of Americans.

[@scottdougherty4251]

China doesn't hardly need our beans anymore Trump doesn't have a leg to stand on