This LOSERS PORTFOLIO Delivered 38% Return | Contrarian Investing Strategy | Aswath Damodaran

[@shankarnath]

I analysed 3-year rolling returns of the Losers Portfolio and in 5 out of 7 years, the strategy yielded annualized return of 30% or more. Here's the data (see image): kzbin.infoUgkxTP5MnIMQRyWVJ0T1ytnmcfs08y21-MIY The worksheet of the original video can be accessed here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PknGT07Mgaju4wXoYvZAgC2YgG4yw7lvR76DEcEOCPE/edit?usp=sharing

[@jangajarn]

Thank you so much Shankar. Your best attribute is that you teach the horse how to drink, so to speak. You teach the rationale behind your thought processes, which is amazing. It helps us think of ways to innovate within those boundaries. Speaking of which, what would be the screener syntax for finding out these kinds of stocks? I want to play around with some more selections inside. Can you please help?

[@shankarnath]

@@jangajarn Hello, there's no screener query here -- atleast the way you're seeking. If there was I would have definitely shown that in the video. I did all of it manually because a screener is designed to filter but this video needed me to do some calculations that a screener can't comply

[@shankarnath]

@@vishnuvardhan5940 Thanks for the suggestion

[@vishnuvardhan5940]

@@shankarnath hope to see a video soon 😀

[@sacphilip]

Give this man a mutual fund of his own. I'm buying!

[@vaibhavbhatia7115]

Won't work on Mutual Fund platform as AUM will follow seeing returns & thus negate whole purpose

[@samiullahk7223]

Lol then he will start buying already runup stocks from HNIs likes of jhunjhunwalas 😂

[@vikram0607]

Your thumbnail creation process needs a separate video. Thanks for such thoroughly researched idea 👌👌

[@shankarnath]

Thank you! 🙌

[@rajharshtiwari2412]

Shankar ji one of the very few genuine diamonds of the finfluencer community

[@shankarnath]

Thank you. I'm glad you like my work

[@jijojose2574]

Shankar bhai, you are one of the best Orator in youtube community. Best wishes

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much

[@saurabhvarshney1]

Great analysis as always. I love the way concepts are explained and caveats are put through.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much Saurabh ji

[@parasbhawsar1694]

Mind-blowing analysis, I could have never thought of this as a Long-term investor. I have subscribed to the newsletter but I am not receiving it on my mail.

[@shankarnath]

Welcome aboard! You can read the older issues on shankarnath.substack.com/archive .. new issues are paused for now, I'll restart them very soon

[@meticulous-analyst]

Me too. Subscribed, verified LinkedIn profile, yet to receive

[@vks002]

Shankar, this is a fabulous analysis. What you presented makes sense as many of the companies which drop sharply will be good companies and so the probabilty of them rising when they turnaround, or the market rises is much greater. Also the gaps you mentioned on google sheet are probably temporary. I run into this issue many times. Google just wouldnt get back with the results for some dates and some companies. At other times, it just works fine.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much! The trick (and difficult part) is to run it as a system and equal-weighted. Ofcourse it won't work in all year but it's run rather well over the last 9 years in an Indian environment.

[@vks002]

@@shankarnath Well said, I am intrigued with this and would want to try but having conviction in such stocks over a long period requires courage - I know I wouldn't be able to do it. That said what I do is similar to this - I look for stocks which have fallen more than 66% from their top and see if the reasons for fall still exist. If they don't, then I wait for a turnaround by looking at the quarterly results, when it does, I invest in those stocks and hold it for 100% gain in one year or all time high whichever happens earlier. Works well over a period of time.

[@heliostreakproducts6491]

I have a suggestion Mr Shankarnath, before that i would like to thank you profusely for coming up with such videos and educating all and sundry, more importantly from non financial background. Now my suggestion can we start a small case of our own using this methodology? Probably if you can start on your own (not easy as it sounds) a portfolio in small case, maybe we can try investing.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much for your kind words, appreciate it 🙌 I'm keen on starting a smallcase & yes, it's not easy as it sounds. The key roadblock is the SEBI Research Analyst license and I've been made to understand that securing an individual RA license will require me to forego all other sources of income such as this KZbin channel & the newsletter monetization that I dont want to as it means I won't be able to earn from courses or webinars etc. -- in case I do that at a future point in time. I've spoken to a few individual RAs & therein lies the problem. But then, there is a solution -- a corporate RA -- which is a lot more work & a little more investment upfront. On the bright side, it's all possible to do but there are tradeoffs. In risk-return language, should I forego the assets I've built over the last 20 months (KZbin & newsletter) for something new & untested (smallcase)? And the tradeoffs are not just monetary but also mental. I spent a little over 1 year after quitting my job to create YT videos at negative income (expenses were more than the measly money I made from YT ads) -- that was a tough time. To sum up -- I would like to keep my options open, spec out the scenarios & not do anything in a whim. I'll love to build that smallcase but like everyone else, I'd like to do so on my terms. I'll continue updating on where I am on the smallcase from time to time on my channel

[@visheshmittal5651]

Epic knowledge. Out of the box. My favourite investor and guide

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much! 🙌

[@shankarnath]

👉 Download the INDmoney app now: indmoney.onelink.me/q36k/wg053pkp

[@anandsinghchouhan3959]

Yahi video hindi me convert kre , Jisse jyda se jyda samjh pyenge

[@AnkanBanerjee0]

Are you using the app yourself Shankar and is it worth the recommendation?

[@shankarnath]

Yes I am using the IND Money app myself. I loved the the mutual fund tracking feature. Just a few taps and the app pulled out the necessary data & displayed the result accurately. Very useful to someone like me who was earlier extracting the CAMS-KFintech consolidated report and uploading that PDF to valueresearchonline

[@arunkiwi]

@@AnkanBanerjee0 yes INDMoney app is too good. I am tracking my MF portfolio, stocks portfolio, EPF and NPS through a single platform now. I have even added my Fixed deposits manually so that I can keep tracking my net worth every quarter or so.

[@sanjanakalbhor302]

Shankarji please Hindi language me bhi explain karoge to Accra rahega.

[@Ravi-Krishna]

Good work, Shankar ji. Have you also compared this "LOSERS PORTFOLIO" against "WINNERS PORTFOLIO"? I mean, what if we are investing in the top N winning stocks instead losing stocks? Do you see any edge in LOSERS PORTFOLIO over the WINNERS PORTFOLIO?

[@shankarnath]

Thanks! A winners portfolio is rather similar to a momentum portfolio (we've discussed this in a couple of previous videos). In that context, a winners portfolio has been offering decent returns aswell

[@ayonmg]

5:44 is one of the most important point to note. I also have the same question, whether there is any way to find out the list of companies out of that list which has closed down. this would make the list more realistic. Nevertheless, a fantastic analysis!

[@shantilal007]

Exceptional as usual.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you 🙌

[@pranshujain25]

so well presented, thanks!

[@shankarnath]

Glad you enjoyed it! 🙌

[@ayushvarma9657]

Again an immaculate video showcasing the various models of investing. Midway through the video, I had an idea of mixing this strategy with coffee can investing(holding = 10years) and boom, you literally showed that in the second half. Great video once again. Btw Shankar, can we have a catchup on the GARP video and the excel sheet with updated returns, would love to see the performance of it.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you! On the GARP video, instead of doing this sporadically and on-demand .. may I request you to create a list on screener.in with those stocks in it. It'll take a couple of minutes but then, you can track the performance of those stock on any day basis. I can't do this myself and send you the link as one needs to be logged in from my id to view a personal list.

[@ajayghodake9914]

Great video again. Thanks Mr. Nath.

[@shankarnath]

My pleasure!

[@parameshwarhegde4080]

Wow! Shankar, you are gem of a teacher. You show us varied portfolio analysis. Did you try to become a fund manager in the past? I think you would be a best Fund manager with varied investment thesis.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much! No, I haven't pursued equity research/fund management. I'm glad the advent of platforms like YT, twitter, smallcase etc. and tools like screener, valuepickr etc. makes it easier for individuals like us to build out an investment framework & seek feedback from other investors

[@ashutoshshete4942]

Very different analysis. Well presented Shankar 🙏

[@shankarnath]

Thanks a ton

[@ralphrau]

Another brilliant video. Thanks Shankar !

[@shankarnath]

My pleasure! Glad you liked it 🙌

[@lordrdx666]

Amazing video! When are you managing a mutual fund? I wish to invest there! Amazing video.. Data & masale se bharpur!

[@shankarnath]

Thank you Ravi 🙌

[@saurabhsharma7108]

Very good information, as always sir!! One doubt- in the last example of the video, when hypothetically you invest 10,000 per company in the losers portfolio...did you invest in the same 35 companies that you chose in 2015...or was this data calculated by finding out every financial year - the list of loser stocks for that year and invested accordingly?

[@shankarnath]

Thank you! I calculated in a fresh set of 35 companies every year; kindly notice the companies are changing on 31-Mar-2015, 31-Mar-2016 and so on.

[@saurabhsharma7108]

@@shankarnath Okay got it!! Thanks for the clarification!

[@shankarnath]

@@saurabhsharma7108 Most welcome!

[@JyothiprasadBuddha]

Always something new to learn from your videos. Much appreciated. I will try this out.

[@shankarnath]

Great to hear! Thank you very much Jyothiprasad ji 🙌

[@YOJO008]

Just a thought, what if we kept holding those every year purchased shares of 3.5L each year that will be 31.5L holding any idea on whats total portfolio return if not exited?

[@shankarnath]

Yes, that's the last scenario (shared in the last few minutes of the video). The XIRR comes to 38.5%

[@YOJO008]

​@@shankarnath oops my bad have kept comment before completing video 🙂

[@sumitkrishn60]

Very insightful video. Still sceptical due to the impact of survivorship bias, but great analysis none the less.

[@shankarnath]

Thanks! Curious to know -- what do you think will be the fall in returns on account of survivorship bias and how can one establish that?

[@namanbhardwaj000]

Thanks for the analysis. Great Video. Can you please share the excel spreadsheet for better understanding and self analysis.

[@shankarnath]

Most welcome!

[@akashmotwani1517]

Absolute admire of your content. Also can you put a screener formula for this out here.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you! The screener formula is simple. Since you need stocks that are just above a minus 50% return .. use this on screener: Return over 1year > -50 .. and then you do an ascending order sort like how I explained in the video.

[@akashmotwani1517]

@@shankarnath thank you so much. Why don't you start a smallcase or a fund where people can invest directly. I have been following your channel for quite some time and i don't think there is anyone out there putting out such crisp content.

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for the suggestion

[@alarksingh]

More than amazing Shankar. This is great stuff, kudos

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much 😊

[@SunithaC-ts6wn]

Excellent topic! Always loved your insightful videos. Thank you, Mr Shankar!

[@shankarnath]

My pleasure. Always happy to help! 🙌

[@AmeyTee]

Excellent video Shankar. A check, if I were to create a small case of these companies, how would you advise I apportion my investment? Should it be by market cap?

[@shankarnath]

Thank you! My analysis was done on equal-weighting. In my view, equal weighting is better given the random nature of which of the 35 stocks might spike up in terms of returns.

[@hitstraight]

Thanks for such an unique topic of discussion, the reason I like your channel the most. I picked up UPL for this experiment even when most investors avoided it since mid 2023 and its price was going down continuously for last several months. I liked its business model and went forward to buy, once in Jan and again in March 2024, now it is standing at > 10% returns today. It was an experiment done with limited sum of money but I am happy I did it. I am an investor, not a trader, so hopefully I can pick up some more losers in future. Ideas in world of investing are really infinite.

[@shankarnath]

Glad you liked it

[@ameymhanera5333]

very informative thankyou sir

[@shankarnath]

Most welcome!

[@geetaraturi2908]

Really you are the one of wonderful teachers with great new ideas for investing. Thanks for giving such thought provoking methods of investing. Found this very interesting. Regards

[@shankarnath]

Thank you so much 🙌 Glad you liked it

[@Anbu-Ini]

Thanks for the brilliant analysis..

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much

[@jasrajjog9924]

An eye opener for sure. Can you please explain the 9 year investment in detail ? So in 2015 year you invest in loser stocks for the year 2014. In 2016, you invest in 2015 loser companies and so on. Am I right ?

[@shankarnath]

Thanks! Yes, you are right. Pick the 35 loser stocks over the last 1 year on say the 31st of March 2015 -- and invest in them on 1st of April 2016. Repeat & rinse!

[@jasrajjog9924]

Do you have a screener link for this ? Thanks

[@amitavadhar934]

Kindly use transparent version of CAPTION in your videos Sir. Lot of data get hidden due to your caption in all of your videos. Thank you

[@shankarnath]

Hello. You can click on the CC button on KZbin to remove captions. KZbin has had this feature for many years, I'm certain you would have noticed the CC button. Can you please try it and let me know

[@satheshkumar5870]

Wonderful analysis & Very Useful information video 📸

[@shankarnath]

Glad you liked it

[@pkprprempavankumar8749]

I think every video of you after few years can be classified and a good book can be made out of it ji. Your Acumen and dedication in research for bringing us video is literally something ❤. Thanks for your efforts.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you so much 🙌 I'm glad you like my research work

[@sumitalwar]

I request an interview with Kenneth Andrade of Old Bridge mfund

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for the suggestion

[@vabsintro]

Can you please make a google sheet of the current Loser list so it can be tracked in real time?

[@shankarnath]

I'll try, thx for the suggestion

[@arvindjain7295]

❤simply superb !!

[@shankarnath]

Thank you!

[@ManinderSinghAulakh-v8r]

Surprisingly enough, Mean reversion at its best! ❤❤ Loved it.

[@shankarnath]

Great to hear that!

[@avgang99]

Amazing video, however can it be that simple ?

[@shankarnath]

Many things are simple, we just complicate it. It's like what Proust once said: "The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes". I'm glad you liked my work!

[@anupamdein]

This time you didn't attach the excel sheet calculation? They are an absolute must for us ,to understand in details.

[@shankarnath]

Oh. That's odd, many viewers have accessed it. True, an absolute must

[@ajayverma1155]

Thanks for the hardwork. Very informative...

[@shankarnath]

So nice of you. I'm happy you liked it!

[@soyelahmed92]

Make more videos like this, very informative 😊😊😊

[@shankarnath]

OK. Thanks!

[@maulik2500]

Brilliant video. Mr Shankar delivers best content in the field of stock market

[@shankarnath]

Thank you so much 🙌 I'm glad you like my work, appreciate the support

[@maulik2500]

@@shankarnath 🙏🏻. Sir big fan of your work. Haven’t missed your video or newsletter.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you!

[@HH12A]

Does the returns become better or worse we choose top 50 worst stock instead of 35......any reason selecting top 35? And as usual appreciate your hardwoark Shankar ❤🙏🙏

[@shankarnath]

Thank you. I chose 35 because Prof. Damodaran's study said 35. I have a feeling he must have crunched the numbers to see if 20, 30 or 50 might have been more ideal. I honestly didn't bother much on this, went with what the good professor professed in his book

[@HH12A]

Thank you...appreciate your quick revert🙏

[@suriyakala423]

Excellent

[@shankarnath]

Thanks!

[@surajdaswani]

Hello I want to ask we should switch to new 35 losers company every year or should we continue which are performing better & add 35 new losers every year. Please suggest!

[@shankarnath]

Hello. I don't have a viewpoint yet but there are three options I have presented: 1. Switch to new losers every year (that's the big middle part of the video) 2. Don't sell the old losers but continue buying new losers (that's the last part of the video where historically the XIRR comes to 38.5%) 3. I did another analysis on 3-year rolling returns (see pinned comment in the video for the link and related worksheet) Perhaps you can do some work on this over the weekend & let me know what you are leaning on

[@thepalashjain]

Sir! I have made a 3L portfolio on this Strategy today of 29 stocks... If the market falls, I will add further and make it a 5L portfolio. Now lets wait for 3 years and hope 50% Annual returns (Haha). Would you like me to share it somehow?

[@shankarnath]

Glad to hear! Pls share after an year at [e-mail] .. thanks!

[@Badumtss2468]

Thank you for your very informative videos.

[@shankarnath]

Most welcome!

[@lakshnaramesh9733]

After watching the video till the end, I can confirm that the research, back tests, excell sheets etc... involved are wayy more than I've expected Astounding work as always by Shankar Nath & team

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much 🙌

[@vijaykedar175]

amezing videos..keep doing so.. and also pls try to do evaluating videos on your previous videos strategies..which helps to understand more how it worked..thank you

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for the suggestion

[@marketvaani370]

Hello sir I regurarly buying multiple ETFs. I keep buying whenever the ETF drops 1% or more. Also, when I get 5% or more profit, I withdraw the profit and leave the rest invested. Suppose if i buy 1000 rs unit and if i get 5% or more pfofit on it i sold only 50 rs unit and stay invest. I don't know whether my strategy is suitable for long term investment or not . I want to ask that this type partial profit booking stretegy is good for long term or not. Plz make a video on it 🙏🙏🙏

[@shankarnath]

Hello. I already have a video on Profit Booking on my channel, pls have a look at that

[@nanda280173]

Great Video Shankar. Thanks

[@shankarnath]

My pleasure. Glad you liked it!

[@HimanshuGupta-ex4yq]

Thanks Shankar

[@shankarnath]

Most welcome

[@drgdmehta]

Your videos are a treasure trove of not just information but highly balanced insights. Very rare in the Indian personal finance community. Thank you and keep up the good work. One question - Is it okay to add just two more screens to this formula? One being last 3 years return has to be positive (to rule out any well-known structural issue with the companies). The other being 3 year ROCE more than 12% as one shorthand proxy for financial quality

[@shankarnath]

Thank you! You can test out 3Y Return > 0 and 3Y ROCE > 12% on screener.in and then decide

[@shoubhikroy4555]

If the last 3 years return is positive how will the stock fall under the Losers portfolio? Do you mean the stock will have a negative return only when compared to last year otherwise it's positive in the last 3 years?

[@drgdmehta]

@@shoubhikroy4555 yes that’s what I was thinking. If the last 3 years return is negative, it is more likely that the stock has been on a downward trajectory, indicating fundamental issues with the company. Especially given the current market environment, it’s all the more important to exclude such stocks.

[@DARSHANLDCE]

What an eye opener!!!!

[@shankarnath]

Thank you!

[@eonivv]

One question probably a dumb one - does the losers portfolio constitute the same set of stocks over the 10 year period contributing to 38.5% CAGR?

[@shankarnath]

The portfolio changed every year. Throughout the video, I've shared tables of 35 stocks for each year .. please notice the stocks are different.

[@kisan9076]

Appreciate your Hardwork❤

[@shankarnath]

Thank you so much 🙌

[@ramanasomayajula]

Do we need to create new basket of loosers for that year or replace the last years basket?

[@shankarnath]

Hello. I don't have a viewpoint yet but there are three options I have presented: 1. Switch to new losers every year (that's the big middle part of the video) 2. Don't sell the old losers but continue buying new losers (that's the last part of the video where historically the XIRR comes to 38.5%) 3. I did another analysis on 3-year rolling returns (see pinned comment in the video for the link and related worksheet) Perhaps you can do some work on this over the weekend & let me know what you are leaning on

[@ramanasomayajula]

Thanks Shankar ji Wasn’t expecting a response so soon.

[@prajwalbhusari8299]

Why don't you start your own 'Losers Portfolio' smallcase?

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for the suggestion

[@bonnvoyage7697]

Thank you, would it be safe to say that the famous fund based on contrarian strategy - SBI Contra fund is also a looser’s portfolio / fund ?

[@shankarnath]

I haven't examined SBI Contra Fund so don't have any views on it. Sorry!

[@biznsplus]

My investment strategy is almost same, got remarkable results. I add few filters to pick stock , preferably from miscellaneous category + CMP near/ Above 1000. Deploy minimum capital in downtrend and add strictly on upward trend( double bottom formation).

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for sharing!

[@daksheshtailor]

Hi @ShankarNath, Great food for thought :) Can you please share the google worksheet that you created for this videos with us to play around? Thank you!

[@shankarnath]

I'll try to compile the data in a single sheet. It's right now a little dispersed

[@subodh5890]

I also do same.

[@ramamoorthyh]

Excellent video.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you very much!

[@TheYasinsonu]

Thank you!

[@shankarnath]

Welcome!

[@kkprakashcnpt]

Thanks.. but comparison between 35 stocks vs 500 stocks .. diversity bring profit down.. need to compare 35 vs 35

[@shankarnath]

I didn't understand. Even now when a mutual fund says it has done better than the Nifty 50, the MF might have 30, 32 or 80 stocks while the Nifty 50 always has 50 stocks in it. Anyways, I am curious & keen to learn -- which 35 stocks would you like the loser's portfolio to be compared to?

[@kkprakashcnpt]

@shankarnath Not 35 stock.. with 30 stocks with the following index , the one come i think is nifty 200 momentum 30.. which large and mid cap stocks..

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for this insight

[@faneeshbansal637]

Sir IRDAI has issued new advisory for cashless claim.. in which claims will be settled within 3 hours.. and plz make a video on this how this will impact on Insurance company and hospital chains..

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for the suggestion

[@yogensood8293]

Sharing this to my whatsapp homies with the caption "MUST Watch!!"

[@shankarnath]

Thanks!

[@AshokKumar-lt5sj]

Good Insight🎉

[@shankarnath]

Thanks

[@ashishkandola1861]

I would say that if we check and buy only tha fundamental sound companies ( sales , profit, and, future growth whether the company can survive or stay in next 2-3 years )each year in loser portfolio and reject the very bad ones Then our returns would be much higher. I will definitely do this experiment, as we have data of company since 2014 of sales, profit and all that .

[@shashidharreddy2959]

What is the screener software that you are using in this video? 😊

[@shankarnath]

I use screener.in

[@gulshansingh4632]

Is it lumpsum investment of upto 9 years holding period? ( time: 12:02 )

[@shankarnath]

Yes, lumpsum investment on a rolling basis over 9 years. So lumpsum investment 1 was for 9 years, lumpsum investment 2 was for 8 years and so on

[@gulshansingh4632]

@@shankarnath Thanks for reply shankar sir. Annual Returns of 31% in 4th year and suddenly it goes down to 7% in 5th year (31 MAR 2015). All you have is 7% after holding stocks for straight 5 years. Pretty scary. ( time: 12:02 )

[@shankarnath]

Ofcourse, the 5th year was the COVID. Every equity portfolio was scary then if one takes the value on 31-March-2020 as I did in this video. If this scares you, please avoid equity investing. I've already seen 4-5 such situations in the last two decades.

[@0097899]

Sir kindly make video in hindi....

[@shankarnath]

I'll try. Thanks for the suggestion

[@thepalashjain]

Can you please make a step by step guide to make this list right now? I am planning on executing this with my 5L portfolio!

[@shankarnath]

Pls let me know at which point in the process you are stuck. As explained in the video, step 1 is to identify stocks using screener where the 1yr return is -50% or lower.

[@thepalashjain]

​@@shankarnathThanks for responding Sir! Big Fan! Just to confirm, we can just run this query 'Market capitalization > 500 AND Return over 1year > -50%' And then sort by 'return over 1 year' Top 35 would be our stocks right? Ofcourse I will make a few exeptions based on my understanding. One more question. Your latest video is suggesting that we might see a bad phase for almost a year, would it be a good time to implement this? Any way I can reach out to you? I am planning on making one portfolio on GARP strategy too. (Recently got a big corpus of 40L but very less experience on creating a balanced portfolio) Thanks!

[@shankarnath]

@@thepalashjain 1. Yes, that the right query. Welldone, not very difficult was it? 2. I don't recall saying anything around difficult period, can you pls be specific with re: which video and the timestamp? 3. Sorry, I don't do 1:1 communication due to paucity of time on my part.

[@0097899]

Sir aap koi course karwate hai kya hindi me??

[@shankarnath]

Nahi. Mera koi course nahi hai .. English ya Hindi me

[@mayurlakhadive]

I'm interested to try out this strategy. But I don't know how to pull all this data. Can you help me understand how to pull this data? 😅

[@shankarnath]

Please follow the implementation steps I've explained in the video. Also go through the pinned comment wherein I've attached a post and also the worksheet

[@mayurlakhadive]

@@shankarnath First of all, super delightful to see your response!. You're a rare gem finfluencer in the whole KZbin community. I wish you big success on your KZbin journey. What I meant is if I were to continue investing each year in Loser's portfolio for the next 5 years where can I find the data each year. Do you use screener or any other sources to pull data for the top 35 loser companies.

[@shankarnath]

Thank you! Pls use screener.in. Write a query for stocks whose returns over the last 1 year are -50% or more .. and sorted in ascending order (as explained in the video).

[@abhigyanborah5406]

Great video as always! 😄 Well, there are plenty of strategies out there, but what if someone invests using all of these strategies (for example all the strategies that you have explained on your channel), i.e. invest in a handful of stocks and exit them as and when the strategy allows, while simultaneously investing in different or in the same stocks but entering and exiting at different times as per another strategy's conditions? Will the portfolio average out (if the strategy performances are cyclic and negatively correlated to each other) or create a monster winning portfolio where one strategy's investment hedges another strategy's investment? 🤔

[@mdrafeek786]

In terms of performance ratios due to macro economic factors we can access the company but acessing companies due to corporate governance is difficult. Is there any metric to access.

[@shankarnath]

I think you mean "evaluating the quality of management". Pls watch this video -- kzbin.info/www/bejne/oZq8opSaZsyta8U .. you'll find some useful measures & metrics there.

[@mdrafeek786]

@@shankarnath thank you so much

[@errortechnologies8083]

Hi Shankar, can you make a video on what can be done with 1lac capital in 1year , knowing this is the last of your savings so have to invest wisely. Big fan of your work.

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for the suggestion

[@AK-kn9ob]

would you say that the trick is to liquidate ones loser portfolio every 3 years and invest the resultant capital in a fresh round of loser portfolio?

[@shankarnath]

That might work. One can also do it on a rolling basis aswell i.e. Invest in Year 0 list, exit at end of Year 3 Invest in Year 1 list, exit at end of Year 4 Invest in Year 2 list, exit at end of Year 5 .. and so on

[@AK-kn9ob]

@@shankarnath Thats a good idea ..... identified 31 cos on 7.6.24 close prices based on Return over 1year < -10 AND Return over 1year > -50 AND Piotroski score > 3 AND Free cash flow 3years > 0 AND Market Capitalization > 1000 AND Market Capitalization < 20000 ........will start with about 10K each

[@rohitshetty8298]

Hi Shankar sir, i believe I'm a fairly aggressive investor and with age still on my side i think i would see if a company has survived more than 10 or at the least 6 years on the market (listed those many years ago) and would keep it rolling for 3 years only as that would also reduce the risk of company getting delisted as companies listed more than 10 or 6 years ago has a decent chance to survive for another 3 + I wonder would there be a way to see how many % of companies have delisted each year. That % we can use on the stocks which gave almost no returns for 3 years (-10% to +10% for 3 year cagr) and consider them-100% or money lost. As an example if 20% companies are delisted we can say 7/35 companies which performed between(-10% to +10% 3 year cagr ) as -100% or those 7 companies 10k as 0 rs. Please let me know what you think about this? I feel the first part is still viable 3 years rolling + companies survived more than 6 to 10 years as they do reduce the risk of survivability bais.

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for sharing your views. Sorry, I don't have access to a screening platform that can explain which companies have not survived over the 10 year timeline.

[@SP-xo9ri]

How to find 35 stocks like this?... Any formula in screener?

[@shankarnath]

The steps are available in the video itself. Pls watch from 05:24 onwards The screener formula is rather simple. For stocks which have delivered price returns in the range of minus 50% and minus 20%, input -- Return over 1year > -50 AND Return over 1year < -20

[@raghunathkumar6825]

Sir, the biggest risk in your calculation is that many companies may have been delisted or disappeared from the market which were a part of loser portfolio few years back, which can't be found out right now. As the screening is done today, those companies don't come into picture and the money invested in those stocks would also have gone. So how to take into account of that money while calculation. Please guide, I am interested in investing based on this principle, but full investigation must be done before investing. Please guide and reply. Also I am going through the book " Investment fables" after watching your video.

[@shankarnath]

I'm sure there are expensive but comprehensive back-testing softwares in the market that can help you reduce the risk you are referring to. If you are keen on buying any of it & running the query -- I'll appreciate if you can share the results with me aswell. Thanks in advance

[@saurabhchoudhary2332]

Ye content jordar hai. Like banta hai! Mehnat ki hai Shankar ji ne.

[@siriyaksiriyak6067]

Rattana is performing

[@Rtr.AmanJha]

Bhai ekdum mast

[@balajicanabady]

Absolutely Amazing Analysis Shankar 👍 As always it is difficult to implement than watching your analysis ... Waiting for your own smallcase or PMS or MF rather than to redo the same analysis and avoid the tracking errors...

[@shankarnath]

Thank you for your patience

[@arnabghosh4731]

Very good

[@shankarnath]

Thanks

[@losar9]

Great content, thank you. I request you to check the book, The Acquirer's Multiple by Tobias Carlisle. In this book, the author showed that Acquirer's Multiple (AM) works better than the Magic formula. The backtesting has been done over decades and it works. I am sure you will love the book if you have not already come across it. Thank you once again and wish you good health.

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for the suggestion

[@MrRashidali]

Dashing Dude

[@manishgupta90]

Hello Shankar, Can you share Working Notes- Losers Portfolio Google sheet?

[@ashwin372]

how was 35 stocks selected?

[@shankarnath]

The steps are covered in the video, pls have a look

[@amanqureshi2000]

Respected Shankar Sir, Requesting you to please make a video on Syncom formulations. Sir in spite of the fact that the company is working fine and generating profits, why is this stock acting like a dead one. Whenever it reaches to all time high, it again plunges to a zone where lays dead. Please sir, as an investor, will be a great insight and direction from you, if you make a video on it with detailed analysis.

[@shankarnath]

Thanks for the suggestion

[@amanqureshi2000]

@@shankarnath sir 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

[@shenkyagrawal1847]

Shankar sir 3 months back you are saying about momentum and 52 week high stocks and now about losing stocks. Both are contradictory to each other.

[@shankarnath]

I didn't understand your point. Can you please elaborate & also share the context?

[@kunalshah838]

Hi. I strongly believe survivorship bias will severely impact the returns. You may even underperform nifty. Not advisable to execute it live without backtesting it properly including all companies

[@neeraj3179]

I believe, if we filter the loser's portfolio further for decent fundamentals using ROCE or ROE, we would be able to avoid some of the risk of having actual bad businesses in there.