Shocking Price Signal As Storm Clouds Gather In GTA

Dark clouds are gathering over the GTA and Hamilton real estate market.
Understanding the scale of this storm is essential for deciding whether to navigate through it or around it.
The GTA has seen a significant downturn, with prices plummeting 20% since 2022-a crash by any standard. Despite some calmer periods last year, troubling signs are now emerging in the market. We'll examine these indicators closely to gain clarity and chart a confident course through these uncertain times with a steady, composed approach.
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Thanks for watching!
00:00 Intro
1:01 Getting our Bearings & Price Signal
2:14 Toronto
6:26 Buy in 2024 or 2025?
8:09 Burlington
8:56 Hamilton
10:32 Navigating forward & Thoughts

[@gmarks1559]

The muppet boiler room condo flipping market is dead 😂

[@RealEstateShow100]

Indeed it is. And good riddance lol

[@tudvalstone]

Sales to new listings, Toronto. 3 bdrmd detached - sales up 25% new listings down 25%, so that is a pretty strong trend. Prices flat y/y. I only look at 3 bdrms, because the volume is higher and they are quite standard, so the stats are more meaningful. Selling one of these to go into the overpriced small city/rural area will prove t be a bad move.

[@RealEstateShow100]

Interesting. I haven’t looked at that segment of the market…will take a look but I’d be shocked if I found new listings down 25% and sales up 25% in 3 beds. Will get back to you on that one. Spoken like a Torontonian. There are other reason to leave the city other than the value of your home btw! Not all value is monetary. Lifestyle, less traffic accounts for a lot.

[@reality1984-cf7jw]

Prices have not dropped yet.

[@RealEstateShow100]

Did you watch my video??

[@DavidRizow]

A lot of interesting information - thanks for sharing.

[@RealEstateShow100]

Glad it was helpful!

[@walterpen371]

Detached homes that have been properly updated with upgrades are still worth high market prices. Mine is overall 70's looking and requires a complete main floor upgrades. If I sell I already know that I will be lowballed. Solid upgraded roof and foundations, I will wait it out.

[@RealEstateShow100]

Thanks for the comment. Sounds like a plan.

[@tudvalstone]

Fixed rates already went down quite a bit, they're not waiting for BofC. You can get a mtg for close to 4.5%. But at this rate, adding the stress test is the real drag. And no, we haven't been through a crash - in the USA prices halved during the GFC. In Toronto, 10-20% up or down is almost normal fluctuation since 2017 when the governments started to get heavily involved in the market.

[@RealEstateShow100]

Maybe you’re referring to stock market which fell 50% during GFC in US. Average real estate price decline in across entire US approached 30%. Some markets less. GTA fell a 20-25 and recovered 10, then fell again. If 20% isn’t a crash then what is? In the history of GTA real estate these are not normal moves. Government involved in the market in 2017 ? Not exactly sure what you’re referring to. I would assume you mean central bank money creation…

[@In_con_ceivable]

Unless you have to sell, people will only list their homes if prices are going up. So for the rest of this year, I believe we’re going to see some very low sales volume. Thanks for the info. It’s appreciated.

[@RealEstateShow100]

I totally agree and thanks for the feedback

[@PrairieSquid]

I feel like the condo prices are only down by 1% this year because the people who were investing in them are either every day people who still have long-term renters in place so they're not selling yet, or people who either actually live there and so they don't need to move yet, and the rest of them I believe are sadly the type of people who are wealthy investors, and they're probably just holding onto them empty to manipulate the market while thousands of Canadians die homeless in the streets

[@RealEstateShow100]

@cassiusjohnadams nailed it in the comments I think

[@canadahodl5941]

Can 1 million buy a downtown 2 bedroom condo yet?

[@RealEstateShow100]

Well, it is the real estate center of the world you know…

[@PrairieSquid]

we need another 75% price drop from that 20

[@RealEstateShow100]

Need? For who? I think 65% of Canadians who own homes may disagree but maybe not

[@tudvalstone]

@@RealEstateShow100 HE needs it. Alternatively, he could get a job and that way he could afford a condo at these prices.

[@AshrafulAlam-zw1xw]

Another 40% price reduction from here is inevitable in the GTA.

[@RealEstateShow100]

Inevitable? lol

[@CassiusJohnAdams]

Here's why condo prices aren't down more. Because the data only shows Sold. Home buyers are buying, not investors. So the cheaper investor-driven units aren't being included in the data whereas end-user buyers of condos are paying somewhat higher prices (vs investor units) for a place they can actually live and breath in :)

[@RealEstateShow100]

Brilliant! Thanks for that!

[@PrairieSquid]

properly valued parts, and labour. That's all Canadian should be having to pay for, for our homes. and that very large group of Canadians who lost their life's work by design , at the trusted advice of the industry itself who were government endorsed and advising them to go along with the scheme, all of those people should be compensated for their losses with a bail out just like they bailed out the auto industry so easily.

[@RealEstateShow100]

Bail out? Nah. Not sure what large group your referring to

[@dinoa.17]

Toronto Vancouver house prices ll go down % 85 imminent

[@RealEstateShow100]

Why not 90%?

[@carlschieferrealestate]

👍

[@pablosubak8567]

Buyer's are not confident in carrying huge mtgs now that's why we are where we are. Buyer's don't want to buy high and sell low.

[@RealEstateShow100]

Indeed

[@sidm3859]

wen recession

[@RealEstateShow100]

Underway - immigration hiding it

[@fire_watch7735]

This is an extremely unsophisticated and irresponsible analysis that will jeopardize people’s financial wellbeing. You must have a personal interest in seeing people invest in the housing market right now; otherwise, your advice wouldn’t be this reckless.

[@RealEstateShow100]

Love to see your video on the subject.

[@fire_watch7735]

@@RealEstateShow100 Sorry, but you put out a video that is very misleading and not thoughtful that will jeopardize anyone who would choose to follow your advice. This analysis is clearly from the perspective of someone that is a realtor or stands to gain from someone investing in real estate versus an analysis based on economics. Recommending that people buy now if they’re in it for the long term is ludicrous as all factors point towards far more losses near term with no reasonable data other than hopium that the market will recover and move ahead of where people entered the market in the medium term. If you don’t like the criticism, then I suggest you do more research or don’t make videos. Cheers

[@RealEstateShow100]

I have no problem with criticism, try to back it up with some tangible data that supports your point of view rather than blanket statements might be helpful. What makes you so sure markets will go down forever going forward?

[@fire_watch7735]

@@RealEstateShow100 - Interest rates will not decline rapidly enough provide relief before 2025-2026 when a majority of mortgages are going to be renewed. - Inventory is increasing and sales are declining - Pre-sale condos that are completing are dramatically overvalued leaving assignees vulnerable. - Variable rate fixed payment terms are extending some mortgages in excess of 50 years most likely bankrupting people when the are compelled to renew or sell and are required to do so under current market conditions with their homes worth less than they owe. - Unemployment is at 6.4% and economists are predicting it could go all the way to 8%. - Canadians are at all time highs in terms of utilizing credit and exhausting home equity. - Headline inflation, otherwise known as real inflation is still high despite core inflation decelerating… that’s why Canadians aren’t feeling any cost of living relief when the Feds are saying inflation is easing. - Mortgage fraud during the boom is surfacing now that the market is decelerating and people can’t rely on upward growth trajectory as their thesis. And on, and on, and in… that’s why people that rely on real estate for their livelihood are reckless when they give advice like you’ve given. The rationale that if you’re in it for the long term then you’ll be fine and buying now or anytime soon is a good idea is fatally flawed thesis given current economic indicators.