Single vs Multi Summoning | Fate/Grand Order NA

How much does multi-rolling really help, and would you be worse off if you spent quartz on single pulls instead? This video takes a look at how the guaranteed cards are most likely implemented and the statistical differences between summoning one at a time or ten at once.
A comment thread on an earlier video got me thinking about this over the weekend and after I was curious enough to crunch the numbers I thought I might as well share my results.
Music:
Upbeat Dance by AtagoSounds is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
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Fate Grand Order OST - My Room

[@FGOTips]

Check out the follow up video where I put these ideas to the test using data collected from a bunch of people's rolls. I'll admit the results were not what I expected... kzbin.info/www/bejne/eZO5c5p7p5Wjg5I

[@KazumaShu]

I got uber lucky got a 4 star servant then 5 star servant Francis drake back to back, but i feel the 10 pull is better

[@shawnwykoff8744]

I just did 3 muilt rolls and got 7 Jing Ke and 6 Hassan of the Serenity? Do you I will adventy run out of those cards and start getting different ones? Or is there a unlimited number of them?

[@mohdrizalbeni964]

Should i roll now or should i wait for something??

[@FGOTips]

Wait until one of the Servants you really want or need is available and roll then. It helps to save up for those opportunities.

[@CptManboobs]

ACTUALLY if you only have 3 SQ left and the banner is about to end, the correct course of action is to buy 140 SQ

[@sirditley6376]

Luckily I got Jalter at the last day for NA. The tears I shed from that moment.

[@cokaneds]

😂😂😂

[@cokaneds]

If only it didn't cost more than the price of TWO AAA games, then sure why not? Well that's how much it is in AUS, $130. How much is that in the US?

[@CptManboobs]

No idea, I'm Canadian I pay 109.00 for my SQ

[@FGOTips]

80 USD for 140 quartz. I haven't checked the conversion rates lately, but that seems a little high for Australia.

[@hollow379]

imaging presenting your homework to class and its a study of waifu statistics. nice

[@lopez.jacinto.6726]

Health Poison somebody should write a thesis about the maths in FGO (or Las Vegas: Waifu paradise) .

[@100Crush]

Math is dumb. My brain no work.

[@VeritasNumquamPerit]

Presenting a paper about the math of fgo's gacha. Professors will be proud

[@illumiko]

@@VeritasNumquamPerit plot twist: the professor plays fgo

[@agentbbbuster926]

They don't give a Fuck. But if they want I'll do it

[@sakei-kun3090]

FGO: a game which will help you learn about history, mythology, legends, maths and new curses to scream when you dont get the waifu you want

[@babidi1772]

No

[@tylerthompson7329]

@@babidi1772 yes 😢

[@ghost_exe1]

after losing 133 sq and 16 tickets to a jalter banner, this hits harder than ever

[@sakei-kun3090]

@@ghost_exe1 F

[@jcsoriano916]

You always feel it when you waste 200+sq and not get a single SR.

[@scottdixon2505]

All wrong. At the end of the day, the one servant you want is the one the game won't give you...

[@rainbowfury1019]

but Gilgamesh

[@AkisNose]

Wrong..... i got tamamo no mae twice

[@elijakiger]

Got gramps twice in two consecutive multis, flawed logic

[@gamalielquinones9196]

i got gramps and i want him the most lol

[@neroesparda5004]

I have Caster and Archer Gilgamesh..

[@Roxasofmalice]

**How to determine Rolls** **Busts out the college level Pre-calculus** >Boi.

[@Bobbythundervideogamemaster900]

How do you pull a Hercules

[@peruanska4385]

estadistica, idiota

[@darkrider1878]

@@Bobbythundervideogamemaster900 You just do

[@domz577]

@@Bobbythundervideogamemaster900 Reroll

[@onemoregodrejected9369]

@@peruanska4385 Agree with this guy! It´s not Calculus (integral, volumes, derivation etc... ) its Statistics.

[@TheVoiceofSaintQuartz]

I'll admit it: I'm not too much of a math wizard myself. But! I do think you deserve props for discussing this topic at all--and in a unique way by providing your interesting calculations.

[@__needmorepower]

The Voice of Saint Quartz i love how ur all over the place sq 😘

[@zarya_gmb]

I always roll at 1 am (Japan Time) because of Rin's Logic.

[@jethrotheguy9938]

Does it end up helping?

[@xsatsuki98x]

Following Rin's logic, mine is at 8 on gmt+7

[@zarya_gmb]

Jethro The Guy sometimes. Got Banana and Rama at 1 am

[@minuano2ndtrueancestor865]

@@zarya_gmb I only roll when im at net cafe, Sherlock and Merlin come that way :v

[@yesayamarlon9586]

No u are wrong, Rin's Theory work because at 02:00 am ur mana is at the highest peak, u are wrong assuming to follow Japan timelines

[@jesussoto9181]

After being shafted 120 quartz without a 5star servant my theory is they like to see people die inside a little

[@dualia-s74m]

Got 5* Drake after my first single roll

[@Zushikina143]

@@dualia-s74m got Jeanne and Drake on my 3 10x rolls

[@dualia-s74m]

@@Zushikina143 yea drake is great. is my only ssr and she has been carrying me thru merica

[@PutraRhm]

@@dualia-s74m gods plan?

[@dualia-s74m]

@@PutraRhm RNG god plan.

[@sabersroommate8293]

I always get a 5 and 4 star in single roll but they are CEs...

[@Last_Legi0n_]

I feel your pain

[@fubukufriend1174]

same here

[@siddiqhambali2673]

Ahh the salts and tears

[@kennycai8695]

Tell me about it ...

[@genericname2593]

Can we all get an f in the chat for him

[@Baronight]

My recommendation is to stick with single roll, not because of math (this is gacha afterall) but the mentality that goes along with it... a 3x single roll = 9quartz...and 3xmulti roll = 90quartz, now imagine the worst case scenario where all you get is 4* CE from multi roll, that will be equivalent to three 3* from single roll No matter how much quartz you have, multi roll can make you easily spend them in just few clicks.. But in Single roll, you feel the pain, every roll seems giving you hint how shitty your luck is, and you can stop prematurely. Calm down, and maybe roll it tomorrow,... Changing the way i roll help me conserve my quartz and not fall into the gacha hell...if your luck is shit, multi doesnt help, i believe our luck fluctuate and always come unexpected..so dont play gacha like you were in casino with that "All In" mentality...throw a couple of quartz, set a limit, and move along when you didnt get it, sure you can do it using multi roll, but it doesnt work bcoz it all gone so fast, and you just go, ahhh fk it!!! spend it all.

[@luardkresnik1717]

No luck with multi as a F2p...So I guess Yolo.

[@MononobeNoFuton]

I told myself to roll 2 times because I was close to 30 quartz, I ended up spending it all by accident

[@MustProtectUwU42069]

You do know your just doing the same thing no matter which you pull

[@CyberMedic449]

That's actually sound advice. Comparing to casino, gambling it sure does put things into perspective. I'll follow your example.

[@Baronight]

@@MustProtectUwU42069 Its the same thing on paper, its the same exact rate, i'm talking about the mental pressure you put on doing multi roll vs single roll. Ever since i change to my technique of doing FP roll -> swap to yolo, i get a lot of unnecessary break (ex: clearing storage, lvl up CE, selling silver card for mana prism) All this extra task make me roll much longer that i should...i could clear 1000quartz in cless than 30mins when i do multi... Try that when you doing FP > Single pull...it gonna take hours, and that help you mentally to cope with the situation.

[@goddessofdeath5782]

During test.... (Math why!?!? Why is it so hard to solve your problem) Using Math for game statistics.... (10^4...etc,...etc,....etc. And that's the probability of it happening)

[@MononobeNoFuton]

Me : I want astolfo! Fate/GO : did you say Jeanne?

[@mashkiglao3185]

same but with Jack. I want Musashi...

[@genericname2593]

Same with tomoe. I got chevalier

[@chaotic9677]

Same with Amakusa Shirou, got Archer of Inferno instead

[@MononobeNoFuton]

This just happened again, still wanted astolfo but I got Francis Drake..

[@amizz178]

same with zhuge liang . I want merlin

[@SaitoAlberto]

Yorokobe Shounen

[@ttchme9816]

My man used a college leveled statistic calculation to calculate the chance of getting a waifu. Mad respect.

[@cremicilafenice4654]

Fgo... Playing it allows me to say that I'm studying history and statistics :D

[@albbb96]

And Economics whaling is hard too.

[@VeritasNumquamPerit]

I learn geo-culture from the singularities and lostbelts

[@oceanicmage]

@@VeritasNumquamPerit Ye. I also learn how to Increase my mental strength by Farming 100+ times in a row a few days ago by Doing Summer 4 Las Vegas event Stages…. Ugh

[@gudaguda5299]

"I'd rather betray the multi-roll than letting the multi-roll betray me" The complication with multi-roll is that the probability you need to calculate is conditional probability. Conditional probability happens when the events, which are the 10 rolls in every multi-roll, are not independent. There is guaranteed to be a 3 star servant and a 4 star card in a multi-roll and the presence of these certain events affects the probabilities of the rest 8 or 9 draws. So the listed probabilities cannot be used for reference in this case. There is a conditional probability formula to use, but we lack information on how exactly the drawing process is coded(can't get P(A and B) ). On the other hand, there is no reason for single rolls to be affected by other single rolls. I have pulled 20 ssrs and at least 10 of them come from single rolls, 1 from lucky bag (CN server). Some of them even showed up when they are not rated up. My average rate is 2 to 3 SRs and 1 SSR for about every 140 quartzs.

[@kriscrossx122]

I would sign up for Waifu statistically analysis if it was offered at university.

[@williamtaylor5109]

Guys no one thinks that ur chances of rolling a 5 star goes up with multis. This is the 1 and only reason why I single roll. singles let u use quarts in intervals of 3. you can stop rolling once u get ur 5 star servant. with multis its intervals of 30. ur probably not gonna get ur 5 star servant on your last pull in a 10 summons. idk to me every quart counts so even saving 12 quarts is enough for me to roll singles

[@FGOTips]

That's a great point that I didn't really mention. If the only thing you care about is getting a particular 5 star Servant and minimizing the amount of quartz it costs, single rolling is likely the efficient solution. In theory you'll get slightly worse CEs but that's probably worth it considering the amount of quartz you might end up saving, which can be anywhere between 0 and 27.

[@williamtaylor5109]

plus the odds of pulling a gold card is already 20% (2/10 cards) Although it is possible that you wont get a gold card in 10 singles, ur probably gioing to.

[@williamtaylor5109]

Regardless, great video

[@bodbyss]

Ha! look at this guy, he actually gets 5* servants ever.

[@twobrosgamers8426]

I only do multi rolls just to speed up time , sometimes my luck is just a gift from God , and some times it isnt , like my 3 first 5 stars where the 3 Altrias , each one in my first attempt at the spawn , Lancer , later got Archer twice in a row in multi rolls and last Saber in NeroFest when i was going for Nero Bride

[@gudakoalter]

Thank you for the breakdown. confidently rolled in singles and Just got Yang Qing, Emiya, Okita and the 5 star CE via 13 single rolls.

[@FGOTips]

Congrats!

[@sebastiangonzalez-rx8le]

I wish there was more of an incentive to multi rolling other than a 3 star servant

[@wererat42]

All I know is that just about every 5 star Servant I've ever gotten has come from a ticket or a single pull, while 10-rolls are Unlimited Black Keys Works

[@amai2307]

playing for 3 weeks, got 66% of my 5* from 10-rolls, got rest 33% from free 5* ticket.

[@wererat42]

@@amai2307 man you really replied to my comment from 4 years ago? Honestly these days with the pity system in place I just do 10x rolls if it’s a character I want because I know I’ll eventually get it.

[@amai2307]

@@wererat42 I started to play 3 weeks ago. And there are tons of characters I want, so eventually isnt really what I need.

[@Flaris]

I'll admit this did almost put me to sleep. But in that sense it was very much like any stats class I've attended XD. Nicely done in laying out the numbers. As expected it doesn't make any real difference. Though I don't mind doing the multi-rolls. On the rare chance (or honestly just the one time) I got really lucky with a multi, it does add to the shock value to just see all those pulls lined up together. But I agree with the idea that if you want a servant badly and you've still got 3...then use them. Your odds won't be any worse. Pull when you want to pull. The odds are low regardless so might as well take your shot.

[@mawile3037]

Alexander Hamilton took his shot 🤷‍♂️

[@erikjimenez5851]

The single greatest moment I've had in this game was getting 3 J-alters from a 10 pull little did I know 2 weeks later my phone would be stolen

[@JesahsuKuristoh]

Perfectly balance, as all things should be. jk sorry for your loss

[@erikjimenez5851]

@@JesahsuKuristoh I had her at np5 and level 96 grail man I was pissed

[@K1llerqueen-]

@@erikjimenez5851 Transfer code?

[@NoU-nz9bh]

Screen shot or didn’t happen jk

[@Kagetora-]

@@erikjimenez5851 How'd you get your phone stolen anyways?

[@espurrseyes42]

*When you finish watching this video, decide to do a 1 Pull using your last Summon Ticket (that you don't remember how you got), and get a 4 Star Servant*

[@deepprakashamin9129]

i will do that right now and be back at you see if that works Edit: did not work for me

[@espurrseyes42]

@@deepprakashamin9129 I don't even remember what this was in reference to. Maybe Wu? Because I know I got her off my last Ticket at the time.

[@deepprakashamin9129]

@@espurrseyes42 good for you man

[@afiqirfan2911]

*Gets Siegfried*

[@gamebond6248]

Ok

[@michaelangelogarcia8442]

wanna hear something salty? . . I try to pull okita souji and wasted 90 quartz and I never even got okita souji or any decent four stars. then here is my friend who has 11 quartz making a joke to me saying he could pull okita. THEN HE REALLY PULLED IT WITH JUST 3 QUARTZ!!! YES JUST 3 QUARTZZZ!! then he uses his remaining quartz on shinjuku banner. guess what? HE JUST PULLED AVENGER OF SHINJUKU IN SINGLE ROLL!! then here's me w/o any SSR wasted 90 quartz getting nothing while he used only 6 quartz to get both avenger of shinjuku and okita. . . I can feel him putting salt on my wound.

[@MononobeNoFuton]

I am genuinely very sorry for you.

[@daisukesan7755]

it hurts

[@theamazingimptini]

I'm ngl I'm kinda like that friend. My friend was jokingly teasing me and I was like ALRIGHT FUCK IT. I'm gonna use my bullshit luck to get enkidu. The next day I was using a summon ticket on his banner, I got ozymandias, instead. He still flipped.

[@crazyplinto7895]

Lol I got same avenger with 3 sq too xDDD

[@LilyBeta]

@@crazyplinto7895 Me too... Avenger Shinjuku seems...has been planned...

[@MystFGO]

Well done! I myself vastly prefer singles as my multis have pretty much never been good.

[@michaelexcel7604]

Plus IF we can get a servant we want in less than 10 singles, we can saved more quartz.

[@queenirithyll]

Thats true. Cant agree more but the problem of that is when the next banner came out, this game will require you to use a ton of SQ

[@nosoupforyou8202]

I feel like singles better than multis , 9 tickets and 54 quartz , all singles gave me Siegfried , Astolfo and Heracles , not bad

[@DaviU]

So, either way I as a ftp player get f*cked. Nice video btw

[@FGOTips]

I know it's a little depressing, but that 1% chance does work out sometimes. I think the best bet is to save quartz for the really good banners and try to maximize your chance that the 1% ends up being one of the SSR Servants you really want. And if you're willing to spend just a little bit of money once a year, you can roll on the guaranteed 5 star banner we'll probably be getting for Thanksgiving again.

[@PrincessOfDumbasses]

pretty much T_T

[@michaelarcher1577]

Sometimes a bit of luck is all it takes man, I am on my 5th month on play and I already got 3 SSRs. Vlad, Jeanne and Iskandar.

[@marchern8526]

same i have both Jeannes, Jack and spooked by Arjuna. I still have 700 squartz for Illya

[@michaelarcher1577]

Marchera XIII I am not gonna be saving for anyone long term, too many people got burned with Jalter and Tamamo so it's best if I just play by the seat of my pants. :P

[@theraysky2682]

I used to think singles were bad since i only got 3 star ces but after seeing your vid i decided to throw some tickets at the osakabehime banner and got tamamo and elisabeth bathory with a few tickets , your videos are helping people even 2 years later ! good job

[@Morbisus]

They should have made it an 11-draw for 30 quartz. I've seen it on other gacha games.

[@novadevalaiss8224]

Dud how do I tell you this..

[@youraveragemachine1013]

Late but Yorokobe.

[@zetse2544]

JP server i think.

[@SilverCrow0101]

Bruh...

[@samuel2171]

Well they did now

[@KonoLeoDa]

A lot of effort put into this video 👍

[@krownem]

holy cow, I randomly saw this in my feed and man you have grown in just two short years, keep going man!

[@elizabethbathorytrue7138]

No 5 star pulls, but all the 4 star servants I pulled (3), all of them came from single pulls.

[@FGOTips]

I hope they keep coming and bring some SSR friends soon.

[@elizabethbathorytrue7138]

Well for now they won't. I'm saving for the Round Table Knights Banner. Pulling randomly on banners, after 200+ free quartz wasted, taught me that I should hoard for some higher chances of getting good gold servants. That one is objectively the best free banner I ever saw lol...very few gold (I think less than 10) FIXED (you can't get spooked) and most of them are very good, and the other couple of them is still good. I'll mainly roll for the Alters and Saber Lancelot. But yeah, Mordred, OG Saber and Lancer Artoria are very welcome to surprise me xD. The others won't make me much happy but also not unsatisfied. My quartz are ready. If I did the math correctly, I should have around 500 plus a good amount of tickets at that point.

[@FGOTips]

Yeah, knocking most of the other SR and SSR Servants out of the pool is super helpful. Good luck! If you save that long it should turn out to be a pretty amazing roll. I'm really torn on that one though, because shortly after that we will finally see Merlin.

[@supersbluecelltheperfected7904]

How many single summon pulls did you do?

[@elizabethbathorytrue7138]

At least 70, if not 100...

[@Barron22222]

I multi rolled 550+ quartz for Abby and only ended up getting her with my last solo so I kinda prefer solos now

[@FGOTips]

Ouch, that's a lot of quartz. I'm glad she showed up eventually.

[@cweamcheesupwise4096]

While watching this I decided I was just going to do single rolls with my 10 sq, and got tamamo-no-me during the 2020 new year banner. You are my new dad.

[@user-wr5pf4sg6k]

Hey! Thanks for the guides, you have +1 subscriber =) I wish the channel prosperity and good luck to all in summon!

[@KEN-nh7om]

Thanks very much, this is really clear, best explanation of the maths behind it I've seen!

[@100Crush]

You make my brain numb. I can't keep up. Thank you Math Wizard 5000

[@DragunHoardingLewds]

The Gatcha Gods are ruthless, whimsical and never merciful.

[@luizfelipevbf5567]

I got Swimsuit Martha in my first pull of the summer event, then i got Orion and Mordred in the Story gacha. After that i never had luck again, i only get CEs and i hate it

[@The_Prophet2104]

The salt. Don't forget the salt.

[@karhawk97]

Well...I didn't expect so much math, but tbh that form of explaining is awesome, simply straight forward!

[@davidcardozo290]

Helped me better my luck, thanks for the breakdown!

[@TheShadowGamer441]

Nice vid. On this new event, I did a one and only 10x summon and I got the 5 star exclusive, 4 star emiya (archer), and a 4 star craft essence lol, guess I had good luck

[@franceseangelourabago]

EX RANK LUCK

[@oscarespinoza2064]

Math will not help you. GACHA IS HELL!!

[@rpgjans7080]

Oscar Espinoza GACHA IS BAD CIVILIZATION!!!!!

[@typeouetco1626]

MY HELL IS BETTER THAN YOUR HEAVEN

[@ChaoticShinny]

i remember seeing this and going "yeah sure totally" before pulling nightingale from a ticket

[@maganese9409]

Damn. I only got the game about 2 weeks ago, and on my third multi rolls (with SQ earnt from campaign) I got Mumma Raikou (5 star). Now I realise how lucky that actually was. Good video dude

[@lopez.jacinto.6726]

I'm a history man, so i don't really know about maths, but you explain quite well, so thanks.

[@AceLegends16]

Was scrolling through and read tons of comments saying they all got their 5 stars through singles; I had gotten Mordred through a random ticket myself, and I went "eh, might as well give it a try." I got Scathach on my second roll.

[@verodeformem9669]

Considering i just started a couple weeks ago, i'll take my chances :) haha.. interesting video btw... did not expect the math part... it was a good refresher

[@danielariyanto4903]

Very good about probability explanation, honestly im still confused about the math part, but the way you explain it, i guess it's still in the scenario about the best and the worst possibilities outcomes

[@NeAr1986]

I still think they have fun seeing us suffering. Not one 4*/5* servants in 1 month, then two Quetzalcoatl in the same x10 roll...

[@WinstonSempai]

Do you think DW even cares about us? they wont even update NA and add lostbelt thing

[@victorpassaro9676]

just subscribed beacuse of the math(not that the video was bad it was AWESOME but i love math).

[@awelder90]

well his math is incorrect very early in the video. So I feel it throws off his analysis.

[@jackjohnston8048]

That was very useful, thank you. I'm new to the game and trying to see what I should be doing

[@realblank8709]

Thank you for making this because literally the very next minute I did a Single role I got a five star king Arthur Pendragon

[@Sen-hr8qv]

EVERY SINGLE 5 STAR I HAVE PULLED CAME FROM A TICKET. EVERY.SINGLE.ONE. I have done multiple multi pulls and never pulled a 5 star servant ever. It’s a LIE.

[@Morbisus]

Phillip Vang I got a Kaleidoscope on a single pull. I've tried at least 4 multi roll and only got Chevalier d'eon and bunch of CEs and 3 star servants. Still salty about my E-rank luck.

[@TheHanzzou]

Phillip Vang I tried to get Astolfo in chaldea boys summon rate up i only did 10x pulls and i got 2 Amakusa Shirou in the first 3 10x rolls

[@lonely_warrior]

Its fun... For my work in the opposite way... Except for jeanne d arc, all my 5 star servants came from multi roll jajja

[@maousadao9572]

I got jeanne and Raikou on my first 10 roll after the tutorial in the Onigashima event in NA. RNG is the only thing that exists.

[@skeletonwar4445]

I've done 10 single pulls on multiple occasions. And i usually get 10 times 3* garbage, so I'd rather take the multi and get at least one 4* ce or servant.

[@lorddark6713]

Lol my summon of 5star Yolo>>4 Tickets>>2 Multi>>4

[@lorddark6713]

RATE UP STILL A LIES!!!!

[@elizabethbathorytrue7138]

My 5 star summons: Yolo>>0 Tickets>>0 Multi>>0 çwç

[@lorddark6713]

ouch

[@lorddark6713]

Elizabeth Bathory True one day, SSR will come to you. You most have hope about it and don't give up, 4star can be good use so...

[@FGOTips]

Ouch, I know the 1% takes awhile sometimes. I'm always looking forward to the guaranteed SSR Servant around Thanksgiving.

[@Adamlovesanime]

Not much of a mathematician but I know one thing you must teach me the way! You and the voice of saint Quartz are the teachers we never had but the ones we NEED!

[@Jazgodel]

Amazing video!

[@BLake125ESP]

I love math even if I'm not good at it, but probabilities and statistics always seemed too much for me. Thanks for making this video.

[@FGOTips]

You're welcome, I hope it's interesting! Trying to apply it to something like this always helps me understand and remember things a bit more.

[@awelder90]

He makes mistake very early on in the video about expecting a 5 star every other multipull. throwing off the rest of the statistical analysis

[@pizzaman1985]

I just finished my entrance exam full of math now I'm watching a video that has another math... My head hurt

[@the13inquisitor59]

This is quite interesting and it's good to know how this works.

[@FGOTips]

If you have the time, I definitely recommend checking out the follow up video where I tested some of this. I found out that some things are probably a bit different then I originally believed. kzbin.info/www/bejne/eZO5c5p7p5Wjg5I

[@axlegarao1523]

Me watching this just shows how low my luck is that I have to depend on statistics. Anyways, great video! You earned a new subscriber!

[@kirigayakun7982]

Tips: Never bring math to a game where luck is the number one factor. XD Nice video btw, better than any math class i've attended

[@trulymrword]

Kirigaya Kun but what if you brought the math that calculates luck?

[@khallylanijar4178]

Mordred kicks my Butt in camelot, was thanksgiving, i need something to make me Fell better, so i decide to roll with ONLY 9 QUANTZ, in the First one a 3 STAR CE, i was not hoping to get anything in the First place, i Just find the sensantion to the gacha similar like a slot machine, got scathach in my 2 try, happy day of my Live.

[@nspar9510]

Dude i was watching this video and i started thinking "following th logic in the nex roll i should get a Servant 4 ⭐ or +" and when i entered the game and threw me i gave a Servant 5 ⭐, i Give you my like and subscription

[@swigittyswooty6908]

Man this video enlighten me, afterall i got 2 *4 from single pull and complete trash from 2 x10 summon.

[@cafxne]

The point of 10 rolls are the EXCITEMENT

[@FGOTips]

True, I enjoy watching them more :)

[@msj8189]

And then the disappointment

[@sabershikik9351]

Lol no there’s more anticipation with single pulls and it makes ur rolling last longer which gives you more hope

[@ImMicku]

Its useful to note a "disadvantage to multi" that being that if you are targetting a single card, say Jalter, for the sake of the example, but only expect/want to get a single and no more than that, or another example, is that you only need the 5th copy of something to max it out, doing a multi ensures you spend all 30 SQ and more often than not, the drop that you expect does not happen on the very last card, on average you get in on the middle, meaning that instead of rolling say 5 summons and stopping there, you are already in for another 5 summons even if you dont need anything else, do I make myself clear?

[@FGOTips]

Yes, that's a great point. If you are aiming for a single copy of a specific card you'll probably be able to stop sooner if you pull one at a time. You would theoretically save an average of 13.5 quartz per banner you roll on (averaging between 0 and 27 quartz saved).

[@FGOTips]

Another good point. You have a 1% chance of pulling your first SSR on the first card. A 0.99% chance of pulling your first SSR on the second card. 0.9801% chance on the third card, and so on until 0.9135% on the 10th card (.99^9*.01). That means the average savings will actually be a BIT higher, because you have a SLIGHTLY better chance of pulling it earlier than later. If you assume that we definitely get it somewhere in the 10 summons (eg if you keep pulling singles forever until you get the SSR) then the revised percentages become 10.46%, 10.35%, 10.25%... 9.55%. This means you'll save 27 quartz 10.46% of the time, 24 quartz 10.35% of the time... and in the end you actually save an average of 13.75 quartz, slightly more than the initial estimate :)

[@ImMicku]

Charles L the only real effect the guaranteed cards happens when you roll 8 3* CE on a row and the very last 2 cards doesn't have the 3* CE cards on the summoning pool, which rarely happens (see the video)

[@ImMicku]

You most likely save SQ on average by doing singles(if, and only if, what you expect to get is something very particular, if you're targeting something), pulling 10 3* CEs on a row is extremely unlikely, you would have to be crazy unlucky to roll those and "not save" by doing singles, trying to save SQ it's a bit of a gamble by itself, but one in wich the odds are (somewhat) on your favor

[@judgment02]

Math tends to mess with me, because my mind imposes numbers really bad. I really enjoyed your input though. Me and a few of my friends had that question rolling around in our heads, thanks for video.

[@AzNZinc]

now you've quantified exactly how lucky i was to roll my few 4* every time i 10-rolled, thanks

[@justinmullins1112]

“Emperical evidence I’ve seen.” So anecdotal evidence? (I kid. Nice vid, quite concise given the subject.)

[@FGOTips]

Haha, yes you got me there. I am basing this off my anecdotal observations. I wish there was a large data set to analyze though, we could do some interesting things.

[@spycrab5574]

I had flashbacks to my 10th grade math class...

[@wdjmemes3745]

Good points on the video, there is one small thing I would like to add, is how many people actually summon we know there are at least 2 mil people playing this game, of which lets say 1% do a multi roll in a banner that's still 20k so 1/4k isn't really implausible. Pretty sure the youtuber knows this but it's basically the law of large numbers and there are a lot of people playing the game, so I would still argue that 10x would be my choice. but everything else is as the video states.

[@masonrhodes9519]

How do you get the things for special somons because I want to Ethier the pendragon saber or jeana of Arc

[@sherlockoberon_akomi9781]

I got only 3 star servants when i try multi. But when i try single pulls... i got Nero and Altria Lancer from it So... single is better than multi i guess???

[@KingOfHeroes1996]

I must say I am surprised a video like this exists, I love stuff backed by numbers and you explained this really well. Definitely checking out more of your videos.

[@FGOTips]

Thank you, I'm happy to hear that. I would definitely recommend checking out the follow up to this video where I tested the idea with a bunch of rolls: kzbin.info/www/bejne/eZO5c5p7p5Wjg5I

[@sahilm483]

Dude.... Gatcha is like the ultimate topic for math combining nearly every single topic related to statistics.. See bois? Maths follows you everywhere

[@amermuhib9113]

my luck is with single rolls. im a free quartz user. total of 9 ssr servant including np2. played for 200 days now.

[@sabershikik9351]

Same but I have 10 ssr and never spent a dime

[@switch8428]

I got more SSR using single quartz than multi pulls.. 8 SSR still f2p btw

[@Clearwateralchemist]

Mildly interesting stuff. Thanks. Since we don't know the source code, we don't know how the summoning program works outside the percentages, and percentages can be reached through a variety of ways, it's like knowing the answer to an equation, without knowing what the equation is. What I have figured out is the Summoning program uses a similar system to the exp system, in that the exp sometimes produces a super success (double exp) or great success (triple EXP). The summoning super success would be the gold orbs, guaranteeing a 4 star or higher servant and a great success is rainbow orbs, producing a 5 star servant. I believe it's how it offsets the RNG aspect to allow some people to get promoted servants. I don't have as much evidence for what I say next, but it makes logical sense to me anyway: I believe the Gacha numbers can be adjusted at any time, and as long as they can statistically prove their percentages reach the 1% for the 5 star summoning rate they're not lying or breaking any laws. I don't know if they have an AI doing it (or whatever equivalent they have) or if they do it manually themselves. At the very least, they can modify the gacha to remove the black keys after all, so it's not impossible.

[@FGOTips]

I definitely believe they can modify the percentages whenever they want, it would be silly not to program it that way. I'm not sure if they actually do in practice, but it's possible. I'm not entirely sure how specific the law is about that, whether the percentage needs to hold across the entire population or for each individual user. It would be kind of nice if they artificially boosted your odds after you fail to summon any SR or SSR Servants for awhile. This could help prevent bad luck players from being discouraged and quitting the game, and I doubt increasing the odds would be against the law in the same way decreasing them might be. If we had a large enough sample size (eg if every NA player recorded their multi-roll statistics and uploaded it somewhere) we could begin to draw some interesting conclusions. But even then, it would be hard to determine if they were tweaking the percentages per player as long as the overall population remained at the advertised rates.

[@GarkKahn]

The king of sparta is very proud of you good sir

[@RuinEx279]

I use quartz for summoning only if I have a choice in the matter

[@Sam-oo7hm]

Me too

[@katromore1421]

Doesn't change the 1% chance though

[@FGOTips]

Unfortunately we have not found a way to increase the 1%, unless you count the guaranteed SSR Servants from those occasional one time banners that require paid quartz.

[@probinguranus1324]

I've recently started doing only single rolls. I've gotten Gilgamesh, Edmond and Waver from single rolls so I think that's where my luck lies though I don't always get that lucky. Multi rolls rarely bring me what I want though there was that rare time when I've gotten Brynhildr and Francis Drake with multis. I've also gotten quite a few rare craft essences from single rolls.

[@cokaneds]

As a F2P I wish I watched this video beforehand, would've saved me so many quartz. That said I only started about a month ago so I have plenty more free quartz through campaign to get plus the events/etc. Defs going to single roll from now on. Thanks for the vid :)

[@akagimasaru6985]

This Gacha game is BAD CIVILIZATION!!

[@RM-nf5eq]

Pulled a 5* Floof Tail on my first (and only) multi roll... come at me 100% statistics

[@dualia-s74m]

Pulled Drake single roll after tutorial

[@shawnmiller4185]

All my five stars and a few of my four stars came from single rolls so I feel more comfortable doing that. Hell I recently I got Iskandar to NP2 back to back off single rolls and that all but guaranteed I wouldn't prioritize multi rolls over single rolls. I actually don't remember the last multi summon I've done.

[@dazai8501]

After reading several comments I have to say that I've got all of my SSR servants from tickets which is sad, but some of my 10x pulls I get a few SRs so eh I don't know what to think on this topic.

[@neey0_3]

I just learned this in class before watching this lmao

[@gaiusx287]

Just pulled Caster Gil and Enkidu almost one after the other today through single pulling. After weeks of garbage by multi

[@kimjongrussel7645]

Same, got lancer Medusa from a multi. Then got Quetzalcoatl using my last 3 sq

[@nautuangpu]

wtf

[@diananda2298]

On the JP server, before I gacha at the summon banner event or in the story summon. I do gacha on friend summon. If I get Exp card 5 star or 4 star and 3 star servant or more . Certainly I will get SSR or SR Servant.

[@youtuber8330]

Hahaha, I actually did a multi- roll which had nine 3 stars and the last card I pulled was a 4 star servant which was Atalante Alter. I found this very interesting when I watched this video because of the odds of it ever happening, so thank you for making my day.

[@FourOverZero]

Only 5☆ I have is Nightingale and that was a yolo roll with a ticket

[@thaliaokamura4989]

Four OverZero I've got Sangzang recently by a ticket, while my multi summon was trashy as hell. Side note: I started some days ago.

[@FourOverZero]

Thalia Okamura I'll add you if you'd like.

[@thaliaokamura4989]

Four OverZero thanks. 009,754,337 is my ID.

[@FourOverZero]

Thalia Okamura My name's Gaiseric, I added you lol

[@demetrius8184]

Same, got my tamamo no Mae with a ticket

[@Lugia21]

I've had the x9 3 star CEs and the last card being last card being a 5 star. It was glorious because I got Gramps.

[@javierc.5837]

I got Nero Claudius AND Nero Claudius (Bride) in a single 10 roll. What are the odds of that happening. 🤯 Not gonna lie, nearly dropped my phone from shock and excitement.

[@twiggy7783]

Lucky

[@TheEmperorGulcasa]

From what I have understood, since it calculates the odds of the whole 10 shot at the start, if none of the cards chosen would be a 4 star or 5 star, one of them is changed to being a 4 star CE (so no impact on 4 star servant or 5 star anything). Same with 3 star servant.

[@GeorgeMonet]

I would actually argue that the implementation does it backwards. It rolls the odds to generate the guaranteed card first with a very heavy weighting towards 4 star CE and then generates the rest of the cards after in order to reduce the chance that the player gets anything other than trash because in that implementation only 9 cards are random.

[@greatsweetnice]

I found it interesting AND boring at the same time! 🤣🤣🤣 Nice video.

[@XtremeXC29]

When did they start adding latin to math? It's like he is trying to speak words I just know it.

[@SeraphimDragon]

I think this video is still very much relevant. I started this game just recently, right at the end of 2020's Berserk Jeanne Summer event (I missed her). But I started to play with the sole intention of getting Iskandar. Was disheartened to find he was a limited servant, but figured I'd have time to save if that was the case. My timing for starting this game was both fortunate and unfortunate, because he showed up as a revival event WAY too soon. I spent all the free quartz I had and summon tickets to get him. Everything failed, even with the 10 pulls. I thought I wasn't going to get him... on my VERY LAST summon ticket I could possibly get during the event... Iskandar came to me. So yeah, I think this video is very relevant, and makes me question the value of actual 10 pulls outside of pure convenience, though personally I believe the rates are all a scam anyway and completely untrue.

[@d0d0b1rd]

I just started the game about 5 days ago, and did 10 single rolls on the Halloween 2020 summon, on my last roll I got Sitonai, my first 5 star. Then a day later, I did one single roll, and got Sitonai again!

[@SeraphimDragon]

@@d0d0b1rd Nice!! May she prove her worth in due time for you friend.

[@airimizuno27]

I would hope this would be the last time I saw those statistics formulas x.x