TLT and Fed Cuts, My take on the situation

  Рет қаралды 5,802

slkttop

slkttop

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 110
@javadik
@javadik Ай бұрын
Be careful looking at TMF and the history. If you zoom all the way out you will see that over the long term this trend always goes down. This is because of the leverage component and these levered ETFs are not designed to be held by many years. Therefore you can’t just expect TMF to go up to where it was say a year ago - but you can definitely for TLT. For what it’s worth, I don’t see rates going to zero and therefore I don’t expect TLT to go up to near its all time high, but there is definitely some upside. I am holding both TMF and TLT, both around break even point now
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
I don't disagree, I would like to make a video about the comparison of TLT's return over time, compared to TMF, sometime soon. For me, I am not looking to buy and hold, or set it and forget it on TMF, "or" TLT. I think of them as situational trades, not investments.
@nelsonelnene
@nelsonelnene Ай бұрын
A leveraged ETF will never reach the levels it came down from. Somehow they are designed to take the elevator when going down but take the stairs when going up. Stick with TLT guys.. stay away from leveraged ETFs.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
TMF should only be traded during a perceived up market, but its upside is not limited as you say. Otherwise, why trade it?. Please chart this yourself. Not correct for TLT vs TMF. Compare the bottom of October 2018 to the top for TLT, 60%. Now, look at TMF from October 2018 to its peak. 280%. Not just 3x, over time, but closer to 4.6x due to daily compounding. Now, you could say lower upside about USO, vs USOI, which is a covered call, and USOI certainly degrades as you say, on the upside, only. I need to make a video about this, but it won't be here, it will be on my stocks channel in the pinned comment above.
@michaelchoi1539
@michaelchoi1539 Ай бұрын
Holding TLT at 94 and TMF at 54. Why they are dropping with a big cut I am unsure of, but I guess I got to hope for a recession now(with those 2 taking up a majority of my portfolio).
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
I saw that too, this morning, and all week. I have TLT and TMF moving up and down in a large parallel channel and it is testing the bottom of the channel and maybe even a bit lower. So I see what you see. I have my concerns about the next U3 unemployment report on Friday October 4. If U3 matches expectations it might not be good. If U3 is higher, then I feel it will be August 2 all over again. If that happens TLT and TMF might spike up in their tight channel. We are betting on bad jobs reports right now. It takes time. Jobs #s are in the Sahm rule, solidly.
@felipeoropeza4653
@felipeoropeza4653 Ай бұрын
I also agree with your analysis. The fact that the S&P is at all time highs is a big red flag. Nasdaq + BTC are not and they may be a leading indicator of weakness. I find it hard to believe everything is fine at the rate the Fed is reducing rates with up coming election. However it must be made clear the case for yields to continue to go down is only contingent upon inflation not becoming a problem again in the future. Which it probably is not.... but who knows
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
thanks for commenting! Which financial sources do you like? My fave right now is Eurodollar University. His take, as is mine is that the "inflation" we incurred was largely supply-side shock, and now, just plain price-gouging, and not runaway monetary or demand inflation. He also mentions the fact it takes around 18 months for Fed rates policy to eventually benefit the average person. So, rate cuts are unlikely to spike home/car buying and rocketing prices for awhile. Not to mention, it will take almost a year to get down to 2 or 3% and... 0% is less likely these days.
@s.lindland
@s.lindland Ай бұрын
Yeah this really interesting. And seeing as the norwegian government is stopping sale of american etfs here on friday, i'll probably get in on this very soon. I've been using sqqq only so far and have been looking for alternatives, so this is perfect for me as long as the s&p tops within the next three weeks (which i've heard from somewhat credible sources will happen). Really good video and i really like the handheld cam as opposed to just screen capture.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
re: the shaky cam: LOL, I just killed a day setting up OBS on my Win 11 PC trading station. So the personal video message look is gone, but the crusty personal delivery will remain. Man, there a lot to unpack from you. Norway stopped the sale of US ETFs? I mean, why? And curious, what is the reasoning for the S&P to top in 3 weeks? P.S. I see you play guitar, I was a singer songwriter for years and electric bass was my Axe. Mark King, my hero.
@s.lindland
@s.lindland Ай бұрын
@@slkttop They're stopping sale of us etfs because it's an eu law that is supposed to protect retail traders from being scammed /rugpulled by high risk, high leverage etfs(i think but i don't really get it)(People are already making copies using germany or mexico as a proxy, but it's only a few of the etfs, and you only get half a trading day). The topping in three weeks thing is a Ron Walker theory. Strong divergences between nq and s&p, yield inversion, job market, and people realizing rate cuts don't really help. The timeline seems a bit unrealistic, but he's really good at calling tops when they happen. I am cautiously optimistic about it because it lines up well with the etf thing. P.S Hell yeah, i also play bass and keyboard, i just love constructing songs and stuff. But just haven't uploaded that stuff to this channel in a while, which i need to start doing.
@s.lindland
@s.lindland Ай бұрын
@@slkttop Norway is stopping us etfs to comply with eu regulation (might aswell just be an eu country lol). It's supposedly to stop people from gambling all their money on high risk, leveraged etfs, that wouldn't be allowed in european markets (but people will find a way around it, i'm sure). S&P peaking in the next 3 weeks is a Ron Walker theory. The timeline is a little optimistic, but he's usually good at calling market tops, even though he's not that good at calling the bottoms. It just makes sense with the fed pivot happening before recessions, and although we're not there yet with a crash or anything, i don't see there being more upside after a plausible next rally. P.S Hell yeah, i play bass aswell, i really love writing and producing my own music, but i haven't put my songs on this youtube channel for a while, which i've been thinking of doing again.
@s.lindland
@s.lindland Ай бұрын
​@@slkttop Norway is stopping the sale of us etfs to comply with eu law(might aswell be in the eu). It's to prevent people from buying high risk, leveraged etfs that wouldn't be allowed in our markets (people have already found ways around it like using mexico as a proxy). The S&P topping in three weeks is a Ron Walker joint. He's pretty good at calling tops, and he has like 20+ years of experience. Besides that, it just makes sense that we'll get one more rally post fed pivot, and then run out of juice with a bad jobs report or something, until rate cuts start being bearish and the market tanks. P.S Hell yeah, i play bass and keyboard too, although you wouldn't know it, because i haven't posted my music on this channel since 2020, but i've been thinking of going back to doing it here cause it's just so nice and casual posting stuff straight to youtube.
@s.lindland
@s.lindland Ай бұрын
@@slkttop Norway is stopping the sale of us etfs to comply with eu law(might aswell be in the eu). It's to prevent people from buying high risk, leveraged etfs that wouldn't be allowed in our markets (people have already found ways around it like using mexico as a proxy). The S&P topping in three weeks is a Ron Walker joint. He's pretty good at calling tops, and he has like 20+ years of experience. Besides that, it just makes sense that we'll get one more rally post fed pivot, and then run out of juice with a bad jobs report or something, until rate cuts start being bearish and the market tanks. P.S Hell yeah, i play bass and keyboard too, although you wouldn't know it, because i haven't posted my music on this channel since 2020, but i've been thinking of going back to doing it here cause it's just so nice and casual posting stuff straight to youtube.
@jz77096
@jz77096 Ай бұрын
Bought some TMF today, quadruple confluence on TLT: 50 rsi, 3rd touch trend line, hollow red candle, 65min 200sma. My guess is it'll grind higher from here. 2 more rate cuts this year. I will play some TLT options as well.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
today looked like a nice day to get TMF, it seems to be bottoming on its parallel down channel as I see it on any timeframe. Today it was below the 144SMA on a 5M chart.. I have a limit buy at $57 it has not scooped up yet. I need to get better at learning and using RSI. Thanks for the specifics on your post. Extremely helpful. Gold star for that. Question, have you ever explored Tradytics? I could spend a year trying to learn it and still would not be sure whether it would really help me.
@jz77096
@jz77096 Ай бұрын
@@slkttop I sold for small loss premkt today. I noticed previous runs started with a big gap up. I don't know where this might bleed to. Today's movement was very odd.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
@@jz77096 I agree with you, NVDA suddenly has bullish trend. as does the S&P. BTC does not though. I think most people, except for BTC, are going bullish on their favorite bets before the October jobs. Jolts new openings on Tuesday which has been getting worse, and then Unemployment on Friday the 4th, which, if meets expectations, is not good, and if it goes higher than expectations, will be another huge selloff on risk stocks and people get back into bonds . I had a buy set for TMF $57 and canceled it just now, premarket. I think we need to wait to see if TLT and TMF bend around and go back up before buying more.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
@@jz77096 I have thoughts on where it looks be headed, I have a new channel where I am posting my Stonk videos, from now on. kzbin.info/www/bejne/q4G0qKepnp6rf6csi=qXkFS3TGZ-yJXS3w
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
I think I see what is happening premarket today, Initial jobless claims were low, and they were lower than expected, which the market treats as good bullish stock news.Initial jobless claims have been trending down. The problem with that thinking is: the U6 unemployment is currently at 7.9 which was HIGHER than expected and trending up, fast. So, people who decided to stop looking for a job are not counted in U3, but are in U6, and certainly not counted in Initial Jobless, which to me, seems like flawed thinking that the jobs situation is improving. But you can't bet against the trend in my experience. There;s no logic and the experienced traders know that. The stock market wants to go up until they are slammed down again on another jobs report and the experienced traders will be the first ones out. Probably 2 days before like the last two reports. I think anyone still thinking of buying TLT or TMF might want to wait for next weeks Tuesday JOLTs job openings report, trending down, and Friday October 4 Unemployment report.
@Pakodot
@Pakodot 20 күн бұрын
Are you still holding TMF? or loading up even more?
@dean_cain
@dean_cain Ай бұрын
Subscribed for the content. Thanks! Although, if I may make a suggestion. Can you use screen recording rather than using your camera?
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
Great suggestion and if this crappy looking video got you subscribed for the content, then please read my pinned comment and move over to FIP aka Financially Independent Portfolio. No more stock or economic content to be posted here on my personal channel. kzbin.info/www/bejne/bmqcZaOnbZZ5Z6csi=RvyGrk51RoMYKtmI. you subscribed here, but will be bombarded with dog and cat videos, car stuff, not stocks.
@DKerch
@DKerch Ай бұрын
Great content. Completely agree with the analysis.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
Thanks for commenting. asking you as well. who do you like for financial guidance?
@mariyanstoyanov7246
@mariyanstoyanov7246 Ай бұрын
What do you think bow tlt and tmf is heading as the job numbers became hot ?
@hirosato1548
@hirosato1548 Ай бұрын
Good stuff. Do you follow anyone for the TLT play? Any downside risks you are aware of?
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
Game of Trades and Eurodollar will mention TLT, but like I said, I have not seen anyone just look at the historical charts and discuss this. Eurodollar is so in depth, its like watching a college lecture each installment. TLT, IF I am correct, and it is going up bc bond yields are going down, then draw a horizontal line and call it support and, if it were me, I would try to set a stop loss/limit somewhere above my entry price and just keep an eye on that support line. These drops in interest rates happen only a few times in a lifetime. If it's TMF, which I like to play, remember, that TMF doing 3X of TLT motion up is great, but if TLT and TMF start at a certain level on the same day, and TLT goes down and TMF goes down 3X, and then TLT goes back to that exact level, then TMF gets a bit degraded and does not quite get back to that same TMF level. So, be prepared, and don't stay on TMF in a down market. In a mostly up market, TMF will pay off, though.
@BeardedDad91
@BeardedDad91 Ай бұрын
"Two stupid guys trade stocks" and even Meet Kevin have large TLT positions. Stock Moe as well. I have a large TMF position myself. I'm a little worried about a soft landing though. A soft landing might not be so good for TLT. I need the market to crash.
@hirosato1548
@hirosato1548 Ай бұрын
@@slkttop Thanks! So risks are: - fed stops cutting (pause or hike) which seems unlikely until at least spring next year if inflation rises. - soft landing and people don't flee to bonds? I noticed TLT didnt really respond to the rate cut immediately. I assume it happens over months or it was already priced in. My guess is that it will come if we get weak economic data that will increase likelihood of longer, deeper rate cutting cycle.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
@@hirosato1548 This I agree with. Pricing in, might have been something I am getting schooled on for this round. (for the shorter term) For instance, this morning, bonds are getting their butt handed to them, I believe, bc of the LACK of any news this morning. While this morning, S&P stuff is flat. again, no news. I believe the U3 unemployment report is key in early October for up "or" down motion on bonds. The stonk market will play chicken with the U3. Greater Fools theory.
@clementdalmaszappa7180
@clementdalmaszappa7180 Ай бұрын
i have the same charts in tmf and tlt same channels with an entry price around 59 i hope this goes according to plan haha got ATM calls on tlt exp in jan 2026 and a bunch of tmf stock
@trent3727
@trent3727 Ай бұрын
best ta ive ever seen
@gwills9337
@gwills9337 Ай бұрын
Love it 💪
@HeyU308
@HeyU308 Ай бұрын
You are correct, however I believe they will get everyone in the pool before they pull the plug. Easy money coming, bag holders are needed, otherwise it’s too easy. 30-40% upside 60-80% correction. The money supply is ridiculous.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
interesting, you are thinking 30-40% S&P upside from here? If so, what do you think eventually pulls the plug on the market?
@m4xfl4xst4r
@m4xfl4xst4r Ай бұрын
huge fan of TMF TMV. unsung heroes.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
yeah right? and notice how I point out the sudden spike in volume in the last year? That did not escape my eye.
@argyristheodoulos385
@argyristheodoulos385 Ай бұрын
mate rate cut day is sell the news for TLT please check the price action for 2008 and 2019... I'm expecting it to pick up on CPI day
@mattyb400
@mattyb400 Ай бұрын
I bought calls for December on TLT. Strike is 101 102 snd 103. On TMF I have some 61 and 62 calls but they expire in mid November. I think TMF has an ex dividend date next week so I’m thinking maybe I should hold off til after that to buy any more TMF
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
I don’t play with options. Unless I’m selling covered call options. Do you do TLT and TMF more for the dividends? I’ve done a lot of dividend investing. But I don’t really think that much about TLT and TMF and their dividends. I’m doing TMF more because I want to ride the potential upward bond curve in general.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
A few are asking me what financial sources I like. I posted them in the description as "Recent fave financial videos:"
@oz3906
@oz3906 Ай бұрын
You’re right !
@philschiavone101
@philschiavone101 Ай бұрын
I bought TLT recently and now am waiting for a crash and QE.
@slkttop
@slkttop 29 күн бұрын
Please go here to subscribe to the new channel www.youtube.com/@FIP-1960/videos. No new TLT or other stock videos will be posted here.
@JamesJohnson-uw5fe
@JamesJohnson-uw5fe Ай бұрын
This guy is so sassy I love it.
@scott7521
@scott7521 Ай бұрын
Super sassy
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
please make sure you read the pinned comment above. More sass, better screen caps and you can see my ugly mug. No more sassy stock videos here. they will be on this channel instead. www.youtube.com/@FIP-1960
@dohyunee
@dohyunee Ай бұрын
tmf will never go back up like that. thats not how these instruments work, levered etf like that decay over time
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
you mean to TMF's ATH peak? yeah, I did mention I was not looking for that.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
I took a look at it, since TMF's inception and compared to TLT. While TMF might never go as high as it once did, its share price degradation is not as "bad" as I thought. Certainly nothing like comparing the WTI to USO and then to USOI which is horribly over leveraged. I will do a video on what I see for TMF compared to TLT sometime soon. great tip!
@bobbobertson7568
@bobbobertson7568 Ай бұрын
It's decay in the same way as if you are going to the casino and pulling on the $1 slot vs. 25 cent, a'lot easier to get wiped out. However it's not like the awful commodity ETFS like boil that lose value each month on contract rolls.. So you lose money even if the commodity is flat. The chart on TMF at least has some upside, the long term chart on BOIL is exponentially down.
@Rhall6451
@Rhall6451 Ай бұрын
I'm playing jan 2027 calls on TLT 🔥
@slkttop
@slkttop 29 күн бұрын
Please go here to subscribe to the new channel www.youtube.com/@FIP-1960/videos. No new TLT or other stock videos will be posted here.
@hyp3486
@hyp3486 Ай бұрын
TMF will never hit those highs again. It's a leveraged ETF so it will trend to zero over time.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
I agree, and I encourage all of us to take a closer look at Support for TLT. And compare to Support for TMF overtime. I think we are going to find that there is share price degradation on TMF. It’s just like SQQQ. Or anyone of those short type leverage stocks it’s only good when the direction is in the direction you want.
@lohti6399
@lohti6399 Ай бұрын
TMF got no trend at all. it is the inverse of US30Y yield. That's all. If you believe the yield will drop below 4% and then TMF will go up. That's simple.
@hyp3486
@hyp3486 Ай бұрын
@@lohti6399 It is 3x leveraged inverse, so it does trend to zero over time by volatility decay.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
@@lohti6399 upward motion for TLT and TMF since April of 2024, and both TLT and TMF breaking above their 50 day exponential moving average with the 50 moving up as well, for the first time since Nov. 2021 is not a chart trend?
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
@@lohti6399 I am curious, the chart is the chart. what is your definition of a chart trend?
@dmitryunique6876
@dmitryunique6876 Ай бұрын
I think that drawing any lines on TMF makes no sense because it is loosing its value over the time. So any technical analysis should be applied to TLT in first place
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
Hmmmm, maybe chart it and compare the two, yourself, It is not losing as much as you think, compared to most other leveraged ETFs and their underlying asset or index. That said, that subject of value loss over time of TMF to TLT makes a great subject for a Focus video. Please switch to my other channel "FIP" in the pinned comments. I won't be posting any more charting videos here. I chart TMF because I am more interested in it, personally. But I get your point about using TLT as a baseline. Will consider it on FIP.
@RoySanchezJr
@RoySanchezJr Ай бұрын
Funny how I've only seen few see this obvious trade.
@michaeldbouck
@michaeldbouck Ай бұрын
"Reflation trade". You're welcome.
@joefarmer7727
@joefarmer7727 Ай бұрын
You didn't follow your own rule you pointed out at the start. You bought TLT/TMF at the Top and got punished big time.. I got out at the top and wanted to scale in swowly but even that approach failed miserably so far. I hope it can hold the August lows at least..
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
Absolutely right.But at least unlike SNAP example, we have precedent for higher TLT prices. I would love to have more frank and civlil discussions like this in the future with you. I think you would like this one I made on my new channel. kzbin.info/www/bejne/pGK2qI2Lj9aWac0si=ZfsilwIq6VOe_0ui. Also Eurodollar University backs up what you and I now know about this consolidation phenomena here. kzbin.info/www/bejne/b5i5gYx8ataCoaMsi=pQUuM63en2hamo6S. This channel is not going to get any more vids like this, it's my personal channel. Please check the pinned comment at the top, or just check out my video talking about where the new vids will be posted from now on. kzbin.info/www/bejne/bmqcZaOnbZZ5Z6csi=RvyGrk51RoMYKtmI. Hope to see you there.
@YOLO-IN
@YOLO-IN Ай бұрын
I did the exact thing with TLT, I should exit now cuz everyone is doing it or thinking about it😢
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
I am curious. How did people find this video? From search for TLT? Recommended by a pal? Already subscribed to my sleepy channel about car projects and other random stuff?
@s.lindland
@s.lindland Ай бұрын
KZbin main page believe it or not
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
@@s.lindland LOL! had you been searching for to watching videos about TLT recently? perhaps the Algorithm was helping you?...
@s.lindland
@s.lindland Ай бұрын
@@slkttop No actually, but i do watch videos surrounding the rate cuts and what it means for the market. Ron Walker, to be specific, makes a lot of videos like that. Was smart of you to include fed cuts in the title.
@erics3417
@erics3417 Ай бұрын
I'm just stock junkie.
@FELLOWENTHUSIAST
@FELLOWENTHUSIAST Ай бұрын
Don't bully high school
@DeborahRobinson9Lopez-h1s
@DeborahRobinson9Lopez-h1s Ай бұрын
Davis Margaret Lee Jason Hernandez Amy
@kingtigercrownestate9102
@kingtigercrownestate9102 Ай бұрын
People run to bonds when the Fed starts raising rates in an inflationary economy but people are still also running to bonds when the Fed is cutting rates too?🤔
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
Historically, speaking? Apparently so.
@philyogaeveryday321
@philyogaeveryday321 Ай бұрын
So buy treasuries now and take profits when the yields bounce off the 40 year trend line?
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
actual treasuries? or an ETF based on Treasuries like TLT?
@philyogaeveryday321
@philyogaeveryday321 Ай бұрын
@@slkttop Me personally have various bond funds for more nimble trading and asset allocation and also individual treasuries and agency bonds for the interest and semi-annual coupon payments.
@nicholashnguyen1
@nicholashnguyen1 Ай бұрын
Try OBS for screen recording!
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
Great TIP!!!! I am going to be using it for the new channel! OBS is already set it up. Thank you.
@taylorkaplan2614
@taylorkaplan2614 Ай бұрын
I went 20k in calls on sqqq Thur and Friday lol
@BeardedDad91
@BeardedDad91 Ай бұрын
Hopefully they are long term options. Might not get the crash as soon as you think.
@csp103
@csp103 Ай бұрын
Ever heard of screen capture software?
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
LOLOL. I know, I suck. I need to figure out how to do it on a PC. I am a Mac guy. These vids were made just for me, and a pal or two, and for just in case I get hit by a bus and my kid wants to hear my point of view on this. I guess it is time to belly up to the bar.
@robertjosan
@robertjosan Ай бұрын
You lose credibility when you curse like sailor
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
I do curse like a sailor. I am just sharing my observations. is the viewpoint helpful or elucidating to you in any way?
@scott7521
@scott7521 Ай бұрын
13 days old and already not aging well. I bought 200 shares.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
I am in the same boat. I watched this other video from Oct 5. and feel more vindicated getting in so quickly after the rate cut. kzbin.info/www/bejne/b5i5gYx8ataCoaMsi=uONi7FMZqMeIMmdQ.. Bottom line: historically, big players and maybe small fish tend to consolidate after rate cuts to ensure it was the right move. If we get any more dicey jobs news in the next few weeks or month, I expect to be above water. Thanks for commenting. BTW: if you want to continue to discuss this, there will be more more vids like this on my this channel. They will be here instead. www.youtube.com/@FIP-1960/videos
@Gatesunder
@Gatesunder Ай бұрын
I think you're suffering from a logic flaw. You said the S&P hit an all time high in July, but it also hit all time highs in June, May, April, etc. all the way back to January. Don't be afraid to buy at all time highs. You're just focusing on the one all time high that happened to be a top.
@slkttop
@slkttop Ай бұрын
In an healthy, bullish market, I agree with you. But there's usually a pullback from an ATH, isn't there? If there is one, and you're bullish, then buy away. If you are dollar cost averaging, especially, it's almost OK to buy whenever. For those who are retired, and working with a fixed bolus, it seems like timing and bottoms become more important.
@oz3906
@oz3906 Ай бұрын
I don’t mean to offend you at all. But you’re not making any sense
@Gatesunder
@Gatesunder Ай бұрын
@oz3906 look at the chart and think carefully. Do you see the top in July? OK good, now cover up the chart to the right of July. What's that in June? Oh right, that's an all time high. Now cover up the chart to the right of June. What's that in May? Oh right, that's an all time high. You can do this for large portions of the stock market's history. All time highs are common. The trend is your friend. Markets have an upwards bias.
@hoshinotanecedryctensaibat9711
@hoshinotanecedryctensaibat9711 Ай бұрын
You're talking about ATH after ATH after ATH, that's called a bubble. And on top of that it's a bubble in denial of the underlying reality of where the economy is and where it has no choice but going next. And yeah you could say it's just gonna ATH again, but how far can you realistically take that logic? Trees don't keep up growing until they reach outer space. And on top of that, the current bubble is AI, which is mostly based on hype, and is currently unregulated, as most major governments are purposefully staying away from that issue, because they know investments in AI stocks is at the moment what is propping the markets up. The day one bad regulations on AI happens in any major country, the Majestic 7 will lose so much money that the S&P will deflate like an old sex doll and everything will go to shit within a few days. Sure, you can keep buying into stocks near the last ATH and you might make money, but there's a massive difference between active traders who do that as short trading activity because they know what they're doing and can survive a couple mistakes at the top, and your average joe who hears about magic stocks that don't stop pumping, who throws substantial money way too late into the cycle, and doesn't know when to get the fuck out when it goes the other way. And it's painfully obvious that the S&P is out of whack when most of the money is in a handful of companies from the same industry. If you don't see that, and don't get that it can't go up forever and shouldn't be a thing to begin with, maybe you're the one being flawed in your perception of what's going on. @Gatesunder
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