Path of Exile 2 - Soul Core Reforging Odds Tested (and I made 100 Div!)

[@Tenkiei]

Patch 0.1.1 fixed the bug where you cannot reforge Atmohua, Zantipi and Cholotl! This means you have more reforging options.

[@mrle1992]

I turned 6 Divs into 0 with this strategy and never looked back. RIP

[@gibilator]

RNGG

[@breakthecode4634]

What did you do gamble all the good ones too?

[@geogeo3733]

I used 20 div on this gamble. Only got 2 azcapa so I lost about 15 div.

[@Matt24002]

This is NOT the video you show a friend youre trying to get into the game. I loved it.

[@wowisboring]

Ty for bringing down the cost of the soul cores I need lol

[@tomojk123]

And this value still is the value of the soul core sold at the preorder but if you sell a little higher and wait for someone to buy them instead of selling to who just put a preorder you could do some more probably 10k ex instead of 9.5k

[@transgirl2106]

Wow that's a lot of work, thank you💙

[@Jeff-gc2sb]

But whats the drop rate? Been farming lvl 80 trials for 5 days and haven't got a single azcapa.

[@liltilted_frank5038]

You're doing the 10 trial ones right

[@Jeff-gc2sb]

@liltilted_frank5038 yes. Level 80 10 trials.

[@WhoLeb7]

It’s just pretty low, I got one once

[@Cheoklate]

@@Jeff-gc2sb Unlucky, I get 1 azcapa per roughly 25 runs.

[@prosamis]

Respect for the time and risk you took to make this project I love this kind of content

[@Cheoklate]

The values of the base soul cores already went up 20% after this video came out and the value of the azcapas dropped 6%. So most people wont make a profit on a low starting capital. I'm just wondering if the base soul core you're using to reforge matters.

[@Tenkiei]

Because the odds of getting Azcapa are relatively low, even at the prices where I did it you were gambling with low starting capital. The important thing to remember is the ratios and use those to price check for yourself and determine an expected profit / only risk currency you're willing to lose.

[@Cheoklate]

@@Tenkiei My bad, I meant to say that you would need an even higher starting capital to see a profit now. Edit: After doing the math, you actually will not make a profit with the current prices based off of your previous returns. Previously you had a 27.7% ROI, 94.2Div/340Div. Now with a 20% higher base and a 6% cheaper azpaca you would make 0.00036% ROI. Do you think the base soul core matters for the reforge?

[@Tenkiei]

Minus the ones you cannot reforge, no I don't think so.

[@Cheoklate]

@@Tenkiei sick, love the videos btw.

[@CTL]

If only we had the technology to mass vendor things to 3-1 faster hmmmmm

[@ArnoldMejia]

It's friction to make things like this possible and slow down even bots, classic GGG.

[@CTL]

this is like one of the easiest UIs to bot though, it hurts nonbotters more

[@LooseToots]

@@CTL If you choose to do this 50 million times that is a you problem the system is fine

[@CTL]

I consider stuff like this as the "life skills" of poe, which is helpful for wealth redistribution, but it falls apart when it is too easy to script

[@LooseToots]

@@CTL Planning around bots ruins the experience for the average player. They get banned- it shouldn't bother you. SSF is always a good option.

[@mariusxxz10]

I had comment on your other video about this, explain how this works without saying data outright, ur spirit core ratio is almost perfect average, very close, just a little bit to better side outcome + what made a lot of profit here even tho your rates are worse than in last video, is price ratio increase of mana and all res cores

[@danielzhang5842]

interesting, thanks for the work.

[@Tenkiei]

You're welcome!

[@d8a_gg]

You can’t just use these numbers without checking the stock on each value. With the amount you got you’re never gonna sell at the highest market price. You’re most likely gonna dump the market since you’re flooding it and it’s gonna be saturated rather quick especially now that you made a video about it. So yes the video is cool and about correct for your own purposes but it most likely crashed the market so nobody else should attempt it lol

[@Tenkiei]

1) My goal really was not profit here, it just happened to be profitable. I just wanted to know the #s. 2) kzbin.info/www/bejne/mZzQnaV_bbWXb5o 3) The Azcapa & Citaqualotl sold very quickly at the ratios in the video. Zalatl sold more slowly but over 200 went while I was asleep at the ratio, and the other ~60 at 3.5/1 div. The market might get saturated for a few days or a week and then people will forget.

[@jaygermania]

opportunity cost for the time it took you to actually make the 300+?

[@thebeardchronicles5051]

I was trying to reforge a Soul Core of Cholotl's yet it would give out the wrong item base type error hmm

[@Tenkiei]

That doesn't work, like I explained in the video.

[@Pandemonium088]

Azcapa definitely much more rare, they can adjust the rarity on the fly to make sure that the market remains balanced in their vision.

[@jasbob1]

hey if youre up to it, do you mind running a bunch of arbiters to see if it’s profit? ran maybe 10 or so felt like it’s shit lol

[@Tenkiei]

Not sure when it'll happen but it's on my list of ideas.

[@jasbob1]

@ cheers thanks for the reply

[@rinchu6051]

RIP to all those who lost

[@jamesalvendia5229]

thanks for this. btw your voice is annoyingly soothing 😁

[@ltdank6435]

1 divine 100 exalt is all I even have, I'm sick.

[@lilturtle7631]

I did this with scarabs on settlers league and made about 400 divines thru arbitrage. Not bad for my first league🎉

[@laizerwoolf]

scarab gambling actually works though. dont know if any of PoE2 reforge gambling is as profitable.

[@jeanblack1295]

Tried it and made 40div, pretty nice strat

[@HeavenlyPalace-Y2K]

It was easy in the beginning, but I'm sure the dev has modified the weightage to skew the probability away from Azcapa.

[@Tenkiei]

I doubt it, that's probably just bias from sample size making it feel that way.

[@FalioV]

@@Tenkiei Here is something I will not agree. Let me explain why. 2 weeks a go I did what you did, but invested 1 div (116 exalts) at the time. In 40 minutes I have managed to go from 1 div to 10 and that was insane. At same moment 6-7 of my friends were doing the same and they got so much ahead. One of them had a lot of money so from 1 div they turned around 30 divs in 2-3 hours. On the very next day we went on full mode of "printing" divines. And guess what happened ... From 3 divs I made 50 exalts. Then I went again and for 5 divs I made 1. So we have collect all together and invested around 30 divs to try it again. And guess what .. in 1 hours we lost all of it. My personal record was 67 times with not a single Azcapa. Can u imagine this ? They have nerfed this to the ground. All you can do now is to waste you divs.

[@Tenkiei]

You would need to test with at LEAST 10x what you're talking about (300 div) before you can draw any conclusions / eliminate sampling bias. My first test involved over 100 Div and I still did a second test to confirm things (my numbers were within margin of error between the 2 tests, implying nothing changed between my tests.

[@HeavenlyPalace-Y2K]

@@Tenkiei I did about 2k exalted when people first discovered this a few weeks ago, and turned 10k+ in one round. Then later that week I put another 4k exalted plus soul cores I farmed in trials, and that turned into 1k exalted.

[@tanis016]

I'm pretty sure this was nerfed and they used to be equally weighted, I was doing this for a while and got the expected 1/15 azacapas and then from one day to the other I got almost none.

[@touka6456]

well 1/15 can easily turn into a 1/50 lol what osrs taught me

[@lapamin4792]

it's just RNG for you, you win some you lose some

[@YakultLitro]

thanks for your sacrifice tenkiei lol

[@richardmenz3257]

So we need to start after having 100 div. Which will result turning 100 div starting values to 110 div on avg nice, but at that point I prob would of had an epic build where making those divs wouldnt matter to me as such haha.

[@Tenkiei]

Yeah which is the case for a lot of gambling in PoE2. Buying 1 king in the mist invitation = gamble, buying 100 = should be consistent profit. Corrupting 1 item = gamble, corrupting 100 = profit. But there are other ways to make money, such as through crafting where the entry cost is much lower and you break even on "ok" items even if you don't hit something amazing.

[@uhohdd]

What did you need the 10 mil gold for?

[@Cheoklate]

using the currency exchange costs gold.

[@ZeusWRLD999]

to list them maybe?

[@uhohdd]

@Ziggurat-y7k but 10 mil gold that's still alot for thay I'd think. Not sure though

[@Cheoklate]

@@uhohdd Just enter 39k ex worth of the cheap soul cores and you'd get your answer. Don't need to buy just enter the query.

[@jakemartin5553]

He said he had to buy bulk soul cores for over 1000ex.. that much bulk costs a lot of dough.

[@Plop_Loggin]

My game doesn't let me 3 to 1 them. Do they have to be the same or different cores

[@Pravlord]

same and some cheaper soul cores cant be combined

[@Plop_Loggin]

@Pravlord it would be nice if that info was in this video, but I imagine this will be tweaked in an upcoming patch anyway

[@Tasty_Pastry]

​@@Plop_Loggin1:30

[@martinbobis6764]

@@Plop_Loggin it is in the video thats why he said he put them appart and didnd recombine them. Edit: and the reason you buy the others instead of those ultra cheap ones

[@Plop_Loggin]

@martinbobis6764 didn't have a chance to watch yet

[@puru291]

This is an example of 'get rich quick' scheme. Don't fall for it

[@Tenkiei]

No, this is an example of a get richer quick scheme.

[@reyclorox]

Noooooo, my secret sauce is now dead :(

[@Tenkiei]

It's ok, people will forget in like a week. Also because it's pretty gold intensive (or trade intensive) IDK how many people are gonna do it tbh.

[@reyclorox]

@Tenkiei the thing is there are things u can do to extract gold from the currency exchange using rog artifacts, so u can create a gold loop thereat the expense of a little bit of the profit. Now about what u said, ppl will forget it, but by the time they do the market will have already deviated to a more breakeven state ln this strat, or as close to not being very profitable as the ppl who remain doing it are willing to tolerate. Cant blame u tho, it's bc of content creators sharing info that community is able to progress so fast, which is one of the reasons i love poe

[@MrNub]

​@@Tenkiei it is possible to buy gold from tft but it isnt the most money efficient method

[@kenneraguilan2074]

no wonder the core rates went low

[@sfabok]

I’d love to know how you’re making money in general. I haven’t made a ton but I’ve filled out my build and feel like I’m really not making anything much.

[@sfabok]

I e mostly ground out ultimatum to likely fuel this experiment of yours in order to afford my not unbelievable gear

[@Tenkiei]

Most of my money comes from crafting various items. For example I'm wearing a ~50 spirit / 830 es / 70% res chest. In the process of making that I had a lot of 50 spirit / 600-700 ES / 60-80% res chests that weren't quite good enough, so I sold them.

[@tormundo]

@@Tenkiei can you make a video on crafting body armour?

[@Tenkiei]

I'll add it to my list of ideas.

[@TheOptimam]

I just did that buying two Opiloti (had 1 already), reforged and got a Azcapa - lol. Now ... continue or stop -.-

[@Matthias-ww9hx]

stop it, you will lose all of your money gambling with under 10-20 div

[@TheOptimam]

@@Matthias-ww9hx I did buy another 6 optiloti and got 1 optiloti and 1 azcapa... I swear, this is scary. I should stop.

[@Matthias-ww9hx]

@@TheOptimam may the odds be in your favour, just thought id let you know about them. i lost 2000 exalteds once :')

[@TheOptimam]

@@Matthias-ww9hx I stopped now. I did 18 more optiloti and got 1 ~12 ex core and 4, 5 ex core. Not gonna play with fire. 2 Azcapa used all my luck for now.

[@YeltraGames]

@@Matthias-ww9hx started at 9 div and got to 27 in one hour

[@NasGuardia]

Amazing

[@sober667]

There is another angle - if you run for some reason Ultimatum - you can reforge to streach your profit

[@aaaaaaxaaaaaa]

They patched this out a long time ago lol. I thought this was well known but apparently not

[@Tenkiei]

What?

[@123runforlife]

Don’t do this 😂

[@laizerwoolf]

So the best strategy is to sell cheap soul cores to these gambling bozos.

[@Tenkiei]

Best is always going to depend on the market, but that's certainly the safest.

[@francisryangonzales6201]

can you throw me some divs and ill waste them for youuu

[@Tenkiei]

IDK, I'm sure I'll think of something.

[@francisryangonzales6201]

@ haha mvp comment