Space Stocks Are Rocketing. Be Very Afraid.

[@Nanalyze]

Sign up to Nanalyze Weekly to hear about the space stock we like better than Rocket Lab: bit.ly/NanalyzeWeeklyYT

[@Sergio-ry3ll]

However, I have gained over 100% returns from Rocket Lab, and it is still growing. In fact, after this clip, RKLB nearly doubled. Bubble? Let us revisit that question in two years. What I firmly believe is that each emerging space company is unique and should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. The circumstances and future prospects are crucial factors that require thorough examination, not just the current revenues. If we focus solely on the present, we risk missing out on the best opportunities. Just my perspective.

[@Nanalyze]

Paper gains are awesome and all but you don't have a return until it is captured. Experienced investors who understand the notion of intrinsic value can easily observe that when several space stocks are being hyped in unison it rarely ends well. We invest in companies, not stocks. This stock appears obviously hyped based on the decades of experience we have in observing these things. That's all we're saying here.

[@Nanalyze]

The four most dangerous words in investing - "this time it's different." Joe P.

[@peterpalumbo1963]

Revenue and profit are important but clear goals and progress towards them is important to.

[@Nanalyze]

Yes, revenues is precisely how you measure progress. Everything else is must management telling a story.

[@MrMentalpuppy]

The video I was waiting for 🎉 Enjoying a coffee to the best finance channel, can't be beat ☕️

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you so much! We appreciate the constant support :) Hope your coffee was great.

[@mattmoore6180]

Are you still feeling the same way about RKLB a few months later? They're one of my largest holdings. I'm new to investing. Started Dec. 2022. I hold to the Buffet saying of invest in your core competency. I've been in the aerospace/defense industry pretty much my whole life, working at nasa now for 6yrs. I understand that industry decently well. That's where my investing focus has been. RKLB, PLTR, KTOS, and LMT. ETFs SCHX, PPA, UFO, SOXQ, and NLR. Ive done ok so far I guess. Up 252%

[@Nanalyze]

"Are you still feeling the same way about RKLB a few later?" What has changed exactly since this video was made? Note that it's a very very bad idea to focus all your assets on one niche area. Hopefully you aren't doing that. You could be the smartest subject matter expert on the face of this planet but that will not help you navigate the markets. And paper gains mean very little. In a bull market, everyone is a winner. Until they're not.

[@Nanalyze]

Also note yesterday's piece which talks about just how richly valued RKLB is compared to the greatest and most accomplished space company out there: kzbin.info/www/bejne/m3TOkI2FrM6nn7c

[@mattmoore6180]

@Nanalyze I was thinking mainly the progress on Nuetron. But I realize that's not much of a change when you step back. I'm pretty evenly allocated between everything I listed there. I know the paperwork gains don't mean anything, that's why I said I'm doing ok I guess lol. I'll get to that piece you referenced. Thanks for the info.

[@Nanalyze]

Hey Matt. Always take a holistic look at your assets (using Excel for example) and then group things. What percentage of your assets are in stocks everyone can't stop talking about right now? What percentage in growth? What percentage in U.S.? What percentage by sector? By cap size? Etc. Being diversified is very important and also at the asset class level. We are mostly equities (largely U.S.) but very diversified across sector, for example.

[@mattmoore6180]

@Nanalyze thanks for the advice. Just signed up for the newsletter 🤙

[@GregoryYoung]

Here is the thing you didn't address regarding Rocket Lab. They are an end-to-end space company producing almost all of the components required in-house, and they mass produce those components. They do not rely on outside contractors who can hype up their prices on a whim. As far as we know, all required parts could already be sitting on the shelf, giving confidence in their pricing.

[@Nanalyze]

This wasn't an exhaustive treatise on the merits of $RKLB. It was a summary of all the hype surrounding space stocks lately. RKLB better be VERY careful with those fixed-price contracts or they will get into trouble. That's a common sense observation that seems to be overlooked by all the rah-rah RKLB cheerleaders out there. Here's our last piece on RKLB: kzbin.info/www/bejne/gJDZm36pfb-cors

[@GregoryYoung]

@@Nanalyze A company in any investment sector is only as good as its management team. Looking at them, I am sure they have the smarts and are Very careful! I, for one, would never back the stock price, over the strength of the company's leadership team. I think they have a very sound grounding in leadership at this point. Time will tell.

[@Nanalyze]

@@GregoryYoung Every company is expected to have a rockstar management team. That's why they're paid millions. So unless someone works directly with them, subjective analysis of competency doesn't mean much. What does mean something are key financial metrics. These will paint a picture of success over time.

[@jzen1455]

@@GregoryYoung RKLB still hasn't turned a profit, and its income in 2023 was NEGATIVE $182.5 Million. However, it could start becoming a profitable company in the future with the stock price skyrocketing exponetionally, but it's more likely to crash hard and possibly go bankrupt.

[@GregoryYoung]

@@jzen1455 If it wasn't for the development of the Neutron, they would already be in the black. That takes most of the risk factor out.

[@Mrkaruza]

You literally dissed the best space stocks there are 😄 I think most space stocks are in fact trash, but for the good ones, now is the time to get into. They are both about to start generating massive revenue. The market is forward looking and this is an interest rare cutting environment which will be a boon for finance-heavy small cap growth tech stocks.

[@Nanalyze]

This is literally a perfect example of a vapid comment that says absolutely nothing. Value subtracted. (Slow clap.)

[@jzen1455]

Just look at the financials of these companies. Many have negative income in the millions with no profits. It's true there's a chance they will start turning a profit, but that's a risky bet.

[@Nanalyze]

@@jzen1455 Not generating profits is just fine for disruptive tech stocks provided they have solid gross margins. Growth comes now, profitability comes later. For space companies revenues are a must and so is paying attention to gross margins.

[@dgratale]

SPACs don't screw investors. Investors screw themselves. If you buy crap you have a near 100% chance of finding yourself holding a turd. We have all been there, but the smarter folks amongst us learn from the experience and tend not to repeat the mistake...or at least repeat it less frequently.

[@Nanalyze]

Well said. They knew what they were getting into, and if they didn't... well, that's on them!

[@rayngmelb]

So you are 100% wrong about RKLB maybe an apology is in order or are you just a fraud?

[@Nanalyze]

@@rayngmelb You sound completely confused. Try and keep up here. Maybe you're just pissed because you weren't here a year ago when we published this video: kzbin.info/www/bejne/gJDZm36pfb-cors It's titled, "It's [Finally Time to Buy Rocket Lab Stock" We'll we waiting for YOUR apology.

[@rayngmelb]

@ Actually I’m seating very nicely with a base cost in the $4 range. Anyway, so why did you say what you said in this video if you recommended it in the past, did you changed your mind?

[@Nanalyze]

@@rayngmelb Maybe you've never encountered professional investors before. You can be bullish on a stock and also be critical when its overvalued. See how that works?

[@pebos1234567890]

I love rockets labs ngl lol

[@Nanalyze]

We like Rocket Lab stock, too. But we also try to be most critical of the companies we're bullish on. -Wyatt C.

[@pebos1234567890]

@@Nanalyze great fucking answer ngl

[@businesswithredbeard]

Me at night, not owning any space stocks: 😴 Me at lunch, watching this, and still not interested in owning space stocks: 😨

[@Nanalyze]

Sleeping well at night is underrated!

[@ThaiCarnivore]

Wyatt entering his teenage years..great to see. ❤

[@paratirisis]

"Young Wyatt"

[@Nanalyze]

Wyatt has a fountain of youth in his backyard. Don't let his youthful looks fool you. He comes to the table with meaningful industry and academic experience. We're all very fortunate to have him on board. Joe P.

[@paratirisis]

@@Nanalyze then who's writing the jokes?

[@Nanalyze]

@@paratirisis Honestly, they sort of write themselves around here :)

[@DJScribulz]

I bought ASTS with a cost basis of 7.90 and recently sold at 33 on the nose. That being said, I don’t necessarily think it’s a pump and dump. Agreed, no meaningful revenue is a problem and might not warrant the current valuation. That doesn’t mean that the company doesn’t have a chance of being successful. I don’t think the companies themselves care about the stock price. Just execution at this point. One can argue that a 5000% jump in Nividia is not warranted either. Just my two cents.

[@Nanalyze]

"Agreed, no meaningful revenue is a problem and might not warrant the current valuation." There you go. NVIDIA's jump IS warranted. Why? Because the fundamentals match the price action. ASTS has no fundamentals because it has no revenues. Until it has revenues, there is nothing to value.

[@mayoo6545]

Your last line that one can argue NVDA rise is not warranted completely made me ignore anything else you said 😂

[@Nanalyze]

@@mayoo6545 Oh saw you were responding to someone else. ;) NVIDIA has the fundamentals to match the jump so it's tough to argue it's complete hype. Here's a good piece on NVIDIA valuation: kzbin.info/www/bejne/hqe5nIycjK6ApsU

[@hnlkitup]

I think you should reevaluate rocket lab after neutron comes online. There are a ton of fundamentals that were not covered including their space systems department. I believe they are setting themselves up to scale into industry leading competition in many aspects of space, not just launch. Neutron, like falcon 9, will likely be used as a constellation builder, and then they will have ongoing profits either by managing the constellation or by monetizing it the way SpaceX has. Time will tell I suppose.

[@Nanalyze]

RKLB will certainly be in a lot better position to compete if they can nail reusability. This video said that, and it also talked about problems the space systems department may encounter if they continue taking on fixed-price contracts like the large one they recently landed. Also, here is our last piece on $RKLB which you might find useful: kzbin.info/www/bejne/gJDZm36pfb-cors

[@jzen1455]

There may be news about gov't contracts in the hundreds of millions, successful launches of technologically sophisticated game-changing satellites, rockstar CEO's signing women's bras, etc, but if they are reporting negative profits in the millions, the price of the stock sits of a foundation made of sand.

[@PremiumCollector.]

Getting SNOW'd in here, Joe! ❄️

[@Nanalyze]

Companies not stocks ;)

[@mk-ki3jc]

The jokes get me every time. 😂

[@Nanalyze]

Joe missed his calling as a stand-up comedian. -Wyatt C.

[@isellpillz]

Love the channel, my current investment strategy is to purchase a quantigence subscription after my 100% RKLB portfolio pops 🚀🚀🅰️🅰️😅

[@Nanalyze]

Oh boy. ;)

[@PremiumCollector.]

LOL 🫡

[@AndrewSmith-rh9kt]

SMT has a chunk of space X in it's portfolio also.

[@Nanalyze]

They seem like a great firm. Wrote about them a while back: www.nanalyze.com/2020/07/about-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust/

[@AndrewSmith-rh9kt]

@@Nanalyze nice write up. 5% of my portfolio is in SMT. Nice way to get a diversified collection of spec stocks in one place and have someone else manage it.

[@MomentaryPixels]

It's very hard to get even a neutral view when things are going good. And when they are almost too good to be true...the clear issues must be ignored or bent to justify how good it must truly be. Sadly, when people invest in a company, they also invest emotionally. Scrutinizing a company feels like scrutinizing the investor's values and competence as a person, even if it's in their own interest. Expect to get a lot of hate if this video gets more traction, even if it's not deserved. Have to say though, the exuberance made me throw in a few hundred bucks, knowing full well I'll likely loose it. At this point it's less about making money and more about the euphoric thrill, and I'm sure plenty have their senses overwhelmed by it too. That gambling euphoria can be quite something.

[@Nanalyze]

You are absolutely right about people getting emotionally involved in hype and then getting their asses handed to them because they lose all grasp on reality. Hate is par for the course when you tell the truth to people who don't want to hear it and we block anyone who has no value to add to our community of investors. We've been saying the same thing since these companies became publicly traded because - unlike speculators - we're investors with a methodology. We don't throw in any money and expect to lose it. That's what casinos are for.

[@johnnyblue1101]

Doctor Doom strikes again

[@Nanalyze]

Who dat?

[@SmokeyLove-vt4xd]

Why don’t we ever say “go to the Mars” I think we need higher standards

[@Nanalyze]

Mankind needs higher standards in general

[@SmokeyLove-vt4xd]

@@Nanalyze I concur

[@jzen1455]

Elon has set that standard. However, the amount of money and resources need to get there are astronomical.

[@Nanalyze]

@@jzen1455 Completely agree man

[@dangerbuoy]

I can be salty about being a younger, naive investor who put some throw away money on some satellite companies (who may or may not have been covered in today’s video). Or I can be grateful that, in no small part due to this channel, I’ve since become a smarter investor and know what not to do in the future.

[@Nanalyze]

That's some good perspective! Making money by blindly investing in companies is luck. Making money after creating an objective methodology and doing thorough research is prudence. In our opinion ;)

[@soundslight7754]

Yes, SPACs have been gravy trains for banks and major backers also a rip off for rest of us, should be outlawed. I can only think of DKNG, and PLTR showing reasonable revenue and prospects

[@Nanalyze]

Note that PLTR was not a SPAC

[@baarbacoa]

As to whether the Artemis will continue under the next administration, it likely will. Return to the moon began under Trump and continued under Biden. So both administrations have been favorable. If course that has no bearing on the investibility of these companies.

[@Nanalyze]

Good point. Even though it's likely, it's still a potential risk for the company. Well put. -Wyatt C.

[@leweezo33]

revenurevenue is the oxygen for business. They forgot to pack oxygen

[@Nanalyze]

Great analogy

[@stellad7315]

I made 11k on ASTS and lost it all on NVIDA calls .

[@Nanalyze]

Easy come, easy go ;) We warned about ASTS here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/fXWbYZ-KqKxsa5I

[@stellad7315]

@@Nanalyze No , I sold ASTS at the top as I knew retail would pump it entry 20 sold like at 35. I thank ASTS as long it makes money, as I don't believe in the company. I lost my ASTS money on NVIDA calls, I have done bad entry on LUNR with principal money and rocket labs, I betting on the contract win if its loses I am thinking puts if they don't win and rocket labs is hit miss whether gets 11 lack of interest

[@Nanalyze]

We invest in companies, not stocks. We don't speculate. We don't dabble in options.

[@TheKali97]

Was hoping you would cover the recent chaos surrounding ASTS & RKLB, as there aren't many publicly available objective analyses to explain the unusual trading activity, but there are plenty of delusional cheerleaders. Thank you Nanalyze.

[@Nanalyze]

Delusional is exactly right. You're most welcome!

[@PetrosTriantafyllidis]

Blacksky?

[@Nanalyze]

Happy to take follow up questions on our Discord server

[@PremiumCollector.]

Sell overpriced premium to the weekend warriors, got it!

[@Nanalyze]

Ha!! Nailed it.

[@Wildboy789789]

Im bullish on space in the long term, but even i sold... the earnings are universally negative, and the broader market is near all time highs... i think if u wait a year u can grab space stocks at least 50% cheaper... most of these companys dillute 3% and robinhood pays 5% on my cash lol

[@kylekris105]

Universally negative huh? Do you read earnings reports or are you taking about companies other than RKLB for instance?

[@Wildboy789789]

@@kylekris105 I can't name a single space stock with positive earnings or one that doesn't dillute shareholders, meaning we lose company value and own a smaller % of the company every year

[@Nanalyze]

Space and cannabis are the two riskiest themes we cover. Coincidentally or not, they're also some of the most popular among retail investors, many of whom are new to investing.

[@erubin79]

I love the important info you share. Do you have to be such a jerk about it?

[@Nanalyze]

Very happy to hear you're finding value in our video! We're doing our jobs then. :) Not sure where the "being a jerk" thing comes from, but in the world I come from, people say it how it is and don't feel the need to sugarcoat things. We're here to teach people how to become better investors. Sometimes we say things they don't like to hear. Joe P.

[@KentuckyHillbilly]

Sure, it does more views for you $$

[@Nanalyze]

Can you explain? If you're implying we're fishing for views, that's only slightly true. We don't monetize our videos, so there's no financial incentive there. But we do use KZbin to spread the word about our brand. Marketing has asked us to be a bit more clickbaity in our titles.

[@Nanalyze]

Title is spot on actually. Joe P.

[@midwestcannabis]

😮😮😮😮😮

[@Nanalyze]

Is this you being very afraid? ;)

[@midwestcannabis]

@@Nanalyze yes! 🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️

[@midwestcannabis]

​@@NanalyzeNot afraid for me though. I don't own any of that shizz 😂😂

[@SuperLeafyman]

I agree it’s a bubble now but I feel you’re missing the bigger picture. People can be right for the wrong reasons. Asts: No analysis of the product, comparing apples to oranges with spacex. ASTS has superior tech and partnered with ATT, etc., has cleared FCC milestones, clear path to revenue and cash to sustain until so, without dilution. RKLB: won’t be able to compete with spacex due to margins, scale

[@Nanalyze]

There is no "clear path to revenues" at all for ASTS. Just a long track record of broken promises. Until they have proven their platform works by generating meaningful revenues with positive gross margins they have eff all. As for RKLB, unless they nail reusability and avoid losing money on fixed-price contracts they're not going to be competing with SpaceX very well at all.

[@SuperLeafyman]

@@Nanalyze I guess my glasses are tinted as a recent investor, all the promises had been broken by the time I signed on. agree on RKLB, thanks for the response