Sports Betting Analyst | Ep 183: Dan Abrams

[@petardoh]

Book ordered

[@4M6MM]

Awesome thank you sir!

[@innopva9973]

why would it matter the buy back or not. the new bet (the value buy back decision) does not know you had the old bet. it either is a good price wager or not, it does not matter if you had something earlier. right? like bet it no matter what if its a value bet...its not dependent on an earlier position. the math on the new bet has no idea you have the other bet its not corelated or associated or anything like that

[@TrademateSports]

Yeah I get what you mean but Dan's whole premise surrounds expected bankroll growth. He's not as interested in the best expected value decision, which is what you're talking about. But he also mentioned he's not going to buy back on the other side if it's a massive -EV bet, it would have to be a decent price, close to neutral EV or better, otherwise it wouldn't be a +EG move. Hope that makes sense!

[@4M6MM]

Great question and response. The EV of the buy back (new bet) does NOT depend of the old bet at all. But the EG definitely does! And it’s the EG that you want to maximize. Otherwise, if you have a big edge on the old bet, then you should have wanted to blast your entire bankroll on it in order to maximize your EV