Statistician Answers Stats Questions From Twitter | Tech Support | WIRED

[@faded3870]

i love watching people talk about something that they’re passionate about

[@hopefullyhigh]

for real, those are the best kind of teachers, especially math teachers

[@cxffaye]

@@hopefullyhigh yes definitely. My maths teacher is so passionate about what he teaches and you can literally see it in his eyes lol. He’s my favourite teacher as well

[@loveyou5507]

EXACTLY bro ppl don’t get it 😭😭 it’s nice seeing how into they are about a topic idk why it makes me happy knowing that they are talking about what they love

[@cxffaye]

@@loveyou5507 ikr. These days too many people are into professions that they don’t really enjoy so it’s really nice to see someone whose actually interested in what they are doing

[@ianoblemusic]

Agreed

[@subhrajitsamanta1992]

As a PhD in a field close to statistics, I do appreciate how this man is able to explain some of the more nuanced concepts with such clarity and effectiveness. Great episode!

[@InsaneGunman]

What's your field? I'm curious

[@kakabudi]

Are you in the field of data science?

[@darthfrancium1166]

Implying someone without a PHD can't appreciate it? You donkey

[@subhrajitsamanta1992]

@@InsaneGunman Time series modeling/forecasting was my main focus area during my PhD.

[@subhrajitsamanta1992]

@@kakabudi you guessed that right 😁 I'm working with a consultancy as a senior data scientist (with a focus on fundamental ML research).

[@JG-ce3pu]

Yeah, we are gonna need a 3 hour version of this. Thank you. Extremely interesting subject and great explanations!

[@archaeologistify]

MIT has free lectures online on a bunch of subjects, including statistics. Theres your 3h version.

[@Ackow]

@@archaeologistify link please

[@mohamedaminedallali6924]

how likely is it for a Lannister to pay his debts?

[@KA-gy3lz]

You know you could just take a statistics class right?

[@JJ-iu5hl]

Soooo audit a free university stats class

[@ExperimentIV]

i took this guy’s course! i was an english major in university and took his stats course as my math credit and he made me enjoy math for the first time in my life.

[@Gallarday]

Ha! What are the odds?

[@tayk-47usa41]

@@Gallarday 50/50

[@kemonopriestess]

gosh.. you're fortunate!

[@imogensharma]

Ahh jealous, he must have been great! Such a warm demeanor and contagious passion.

[@LeanAndMean44]

I know people who, with his knowledge, would answer irritated and condescendingly to all these questions. But Jeffrey? No. He happily shares his knowledge, always keeping a smile, explaining very well, even thought it is obvious that he‘s a little introverted and shy. What a nice guy, I would love to have him as a teacher.

[@deus_ex_machina_]

I agree with your assessment, but the presenters know that their behaviour is a lot more likely to be seen by millions of strangers rather than just a class full of students whose grades he has control over.

[@alexanderhe646]

@@deus_ex_machina_ had him as a prof this year, absolutely amazing lecturer with very fair exams

[@rukus9585]

your bud, jeffrey, lmao.

[@LeanAndMean44]

@@rukus9585 no he’s not.

[@rukus9585]

@@LeanAndMean44 oh... my fault. I just figured, first name basis and all...

[@austineittreim5085]

I could listen to this guy talk all day

[@BillStrathearn]

Harvard Woody Harrelson really does have the best way of explaining statistics

[@Mighty_Dork]

Sounds like University of Toronto is the place for you

[@mcschneeman1]

I could talk about how that guy could listen to that guy talk all day all day

[@cristianpuerto5549]

right???

[@mailesmith168]

He keeps it moving

[@luvisacigarette8]

Rosenthal should be brought back not only because he's engaging and delightful but because statistics is one of the most misunderstood (or neglected) fields

[@mehwhyausername1]

*the* most neglected and important coursework in high schools. it is an elective at some schools; however, I've never heard of a public district requiring students to take it, even though something so niche like geometry is taught for an entire year because of what, Euclid's _Elements_ is influential?

[@jaytxa2791]

@@mehwhyausername1 my high school stats was a mandatory class and I thought it was pretty interesting stuff

[@nmarbletoe8210]

@@mehwhyausername1 I love stats, but didn't get any until grad school. Hard to believe we didnt' get it in undergrad biology

[@n484l3iehugtil]

@@mehwhyausername1 tbh I'm guessing statistics is taught less in high school than geometry not because of any point about practicality, but because it it's messy - it's less to do with solving some puzzle that has a precise solution, and much more about appreciating what various values, indicators and formulas mean in terms of interpreting the data. I can feel the confusion and wild questions among students (especially about whether something is the best approach to interpret the data, whether it really represents what it claims to represent, and whether the conclusion is properly justified - way more qualitative in nature), and I remember how even teachers get it wrong, especially interpreting the terminology into context. Then again, it has to be done some time, and high school is probably the best place to learn it cos the students have time and are also of a decent caliber.

[@FrenkieWest32]

@@mehwhyausername1 in what high school does one not get any statistics? I find this hard to believe. Basic math questions in lower grades are quite often some simple form of statistics.

[@jimysuave]

I respect that the hardest part of shooting an episode like this is casting somebody… And once again Wired knocks it out of the park. Such a charming gentleman.

[@krisherbst6162]

I like that wired gets some very regular looking people. Something about media always having crazy attractive people makes me not trust them at all.

[@RebeccaEvans]

I love that multiple times throughout the video he does not just answer questions but actively demonstrates the kind of dualistic/perspective change undertaking for each problem that is so valuable in stats and in thought in general.

[@Moose92411]

Agreed. He makes the information he’s giving us highly authentic and actionable

[@RelaxxedRage]

i trust this guy because of his passion and the fact he looks exactly what I'd expect a statistician to look like

[@grumblycurmudgeon]

...a flood victim?

[@derekwayne843]

This was one of my favorite professors at university of toronto. I took stochastic processes with him. I thought I recognized him!

[@CatherineBoyd]

Ooh, what are the odds?

[@benpietrzykowski9216]

@@CatherineBoyd well played Catherine

[@pasandesilva2295]

How fun was Stochastic processes, Random Walks, Ito calculus... right... RIGHT...!

[@derekwayne843]

@@pasandesilva2295 RIGHT! He actually used that frog to demonstrate random walks on lillypads lol

[@jeanc6306]

Omg I remember his frog too

[@andrewfernandes7383]

I am currently taking one of his courses. Fantastic professor and all around great guy. He's really passionate about the subject so he's a pleasure to talk to when it comes to the subject.

[@bbens999]

Was this online or in-person in Toronto?

[@rrogers2370]

Did you pass?

[@daClownie1]

Lol I’m taking his midterm at 3 today

[@cmdtrigun]

The question about "when do I need statistics in real life?" hurts me. Since the age of news misinformation, there could not be a more valuable field to understand. I also liked that he touched on the 2016 election, because that was a great example of people stuck in their bubbles convincing themselves that the election would pan out one way, mistaking their opinion for a statistical reflection of the whole nation.

[@mehwhyausername1]

I agree; the need for instruction and erudition in probability theory, statistics, and logic is even more clarified and poignant in the last number of years. specifically, there is a pathetic lack of epistemological thought in America, which is ruining our culture and economic competitiveness on the global stage; it's also hampering innovation efforts and entrepreneurial pursuits in technology and business, and leading to lossy events, such as people easily scamming others, or people "investing" in extremely risky assets without knowing the likelihood of success.

[@mrbouncelol]

It's an excellent example because it is topical but ultimately apolitical: whether or not you were happy about the result, the point is that a good number of smart people were wrong, and that is always a learning moment

[@theultimatereductionist7592]

Nothing special about the 2016 US election. ALL elections in ALL countries in ALL years have people STUPIDLY ARROGANTLY making false predictions.

[@montyollie]

@@mehwhyausername1 the staggering number of people who denied the pandemic or the R values or the mask usage or the contact tracing was ... unreal to me. But I've always loved stats, and I don't get people who ignore them.

[@alfgwahigain5544]

@@theultimatereductionist7592 Kind of like how the media, for months, have been handing the upcoming midterms to the right. It's repeated every day that they're going to win. I find it obnoxious.

[@alexc4012]

I genuinely think the world would be a better place if more people just watched this video! Jeffrey is a great speaker. Statistics is something that seems to be so lost in the general population (and it makes sense why - it's a complex subject!) and I think it's one of the reasons that science / health, etc. literacy is so lacking right now.

[@Woupsme]

This was actually really exciting. I love how you can just cook down every "what are the odds" to something factual.

[@svenlinden9312]

This professors way of describing things so explicitly and without the confusing, using examples in a clear manner. Just awesome 🤩

[@GlennC789]

This was great. People have so many serious misconceptions about statistics, and often their misconceptions lead them to conspiracy theories and other dangerous beliefs because they see what seem to be impossible coincidences that are in reality, just random patterns being detected among the noise of vast numbers of independent events that naturally occur. Some of this was demonstrated by the questions asked here. Jeffrey did a quite excellent job of explaining, but people really need to be educated better about these things.

[@Theoryofcatsndogs]

you forgot to mention religion.

[@mehg8407]

I think it has more to do as painting people as "establishment". So in this case a right winger might say that this guy is just pushing a narrative that crime is down historically (which it is). So instead of attacking this guy in particular or even the math, you go all out and say "they are pushing a narrative down your throat". So when say a virus has a random mutation and become more infectious, it then becomes easy to say things like "the Chinese created the virus" or "the virus happened in the election year on purpose". It all comes down to "don't trust them, trust us to tell you what reality is".

[@mehwhyausername1]

name a single school district that _requires_ students to take probability theory or statistics. that's right - there isn't one. they also aren't required to learn propositional logic, even in college, or any type of discrete mathematics, unless they're specifically a technical or mathematics major. our education systems are pathetic and cater to the lowest common denominator.

[@mehg8407]

@@mehwhyausername1 You don't need a full fledged probability course to know things like "vaccines are not injecting you with chips", "masking helps reduce spread", "Democrats are not eating babies". As someone with a math degree I can tell you, you don't need to be technically proficient to use common sense. Not everybody needs to take a full stats course (though that would be awesome). It's just not a viable strategy. I wish it were not true, but not everybody has the capacity to take those kind of courses. I'm not saying that people are too dumb, I'm saying that we need to focus more heavily on the critical thinking part of the picture. I think a good course would be one were kids are guided on how to spot fake news and how to identify good sources. For example, I'm not a doctor so I will defer to the consensus of medical experts about medicine. It would be great if everybody was good at stats, but the best we could do is at least make people better at navigating a world with constant info being tossed around.

[@stich21]

@@mehg8407 Lol sheep BAaaaa

[@herrschniedler4207]

you can tell this man loves his job and thats great

[@mwhawley]

I will watch ANYONE talk about what they’re passionate about

[@ecvjtv2778]

@@mwhawley Aye, so would I. It's quite a joy to behold :)

[@dark_sunset]

This video is awesome. Thanks Jeff, thanks Wired!

[@RishabhSharma10225]

He talked about some critical things that people very frequently get wrong. I was very happy to see that. Thanks for this video.

[@bertfalasco1436]

This was thoroughly delightful. Please have this gentleman back. I liked him as the guy on the couch, too, in Half Baked.

[@martintodd3009]

He was pretty good in Frasier too 👏

[@britishbeef2116]

Yep, straight up numbers and facts, I liked this dude too

[@WickedIndigo]

Well played friend🤣🤣🤣

[@robspiess]

This professor is cool, but there is no way he is as cool as Steven Wright (the guy on the couch). One of my favorite Steven Wright jokes: When I was little my grandfather asked me how old I was. I said, "Five." He said, "When I was your age, I was six." Bonus Joke: "I hate it when my foot falls asleep during the day because that means it's going to be up all night."

[@bertfalasco1436]

@@robspiess he is a hilarious man, for sure 🤙🏼

[@cruisinguy6024]

I did not think I’d enjoy this episode but turns out he was fascinating! Would love to see more of this guy!

[@mehwhyausername1]

I'm hoping more people will realize how important, useful, informative, and interesting probability and statistics theory is, and I think that passionate professors like him act as good representatives for this kind of critical thought.

[@Killer-Frost18x]

Why you think you wouldn’t enjoy it? That’s sad

[@cruisinguy6024]

@@Killer-Frost18x While I've always been "good" at math I have never enjoyed it. For this reason I avoided taking statistics in high school and college so I figured this video would not be enjoyable but he did such a wonderful job explaining everything.

[@chrisfitch972]

I love it when an expert explains concepts in a simple and easy to understand way! (Both because it helps me keep up lol and because it’s such an appealing display of empathy - he could dazzle us with complicated explanations but he’d much rather give us the gift of understanding something new!)

[@DarthScosha]

That's what makes a good teacher/educator. You can get a PhD and be very knowledgeable in a field, but that doesn't mean you'll be any good at explaining it to people who are not already experts. Gaining the ability to explain complex subjects to people with no prior knowledge is a skill that takes a long time to acquire.

[@Reir0o]

That's basically the difference between a teacher and a smartass

[@ksz7243]

Thank you for finaly explaining p-value in human words - I 'm a student and I had 2 semesters with this thing, and I know what it's for but just now I truely feel like I understand it

[@FedericoMattiello]

Unfortunately that was wrong. The definition is a mess and has been, and still is, a controversial topic for almost all statisticians

[@rudymeow]

​@@FedericoMattiello The explanation of the tool was correct, the debate is more about if p-value is a good tool, or how should we use this tool. Also plenty of people misuse this tool by mistake or purposely.

[@TAP7a]

@@FedericoMattiello I mean, any definition for statistical significance other than "a measurement where the probability of observing a value of the chosen test statistic equal to or more extreme than the measured test statistic assuming the null hypothesis is less than or equal to the a priori assigned choice of α" is necessarily going to omit some detail, but the above is fairly settled. As the other commenter said, the controversy is if whether they're still useful. I'm of the opinion that the effect size should take priority in publications, especially to the general public, with the p-value reported alongside. Sometimes only presenting "p

[@marcelohfms]

I like the plane crash example and I think it relates to cassino and roulettes. A lot of people think that because the ball hit let’s say red 10 times in a row, the probability of it being on red again is extremely small and well, it isn’t. It’s true that the probability of hitting red 11 times in a row is really small. But as soon as it has already happened 10 times, the probability of the next one being red is roughly 50%.

[@NealBurkard-ut1oo]

Yeah, I believe that's called a Markov chain. Each roulette spin is independent of the previous spin but we can still use the chain to predict the odds the next 10 spins are red. I've taken a decent amount of Stat classes in college and I will probably will never play a casino house game, the payout are always lower than the odds of winning. I do play a lot of poker but that's not a house game.

[@Decimator69420]

Man, WIRED really knows how to find paragons in their respective fields

[@b420bs]

THIS!! all of their experts besides just being incredibly knowledgeable talk about their respective fields with so much clarity and passion. I could seriously listen to all of them if they had their own podcasts haha

[@burgerslayerrr]

I love how genuinely passionate this guy is along with his eloquence to explain complicated equations in simple terms!

[@Amanda-if7ey]

I really enjoyed how clearly he explained something that can be so difficult to understand

[@emwecker]

I enjoy this man, you can see how jacked he is about stats.

[@collinsonOga]

Imagine losing your kids and getting jailed for several years for it😢

[@peanutbutternjelly4736]

Yea. That’s messed up.

[@PeterMoore66]

It happened several times in the UK over the course of a decade or so. Down to one medical statistician who mis-applied the statstics about SIDS deaths in some cases (in exactly the way described in the video), leading to 3 or 4 women being incorrectly jailed for murdering their children. All have been subsequently freed, thankfully.

[@xwwg1wgax277]

Finally sat through a full episode. First time in months. Bring this man back.

[@taahaahussain1477]

Oh wasn't expecting this. I have always wanted to know what they do

[@amar.mohamed]

This video is so important. It explains your basic statistics that would explain a majority of the events that could occur in your lifetime.

[@bradykruse1693]

I took a probability class my senior year of college. Absolutely phenomenal insight into how the world operates

[@gopackgo2234]

This is what a professor should be. Someone who is passionate and knowledgeable about something and good at explaining things.

[@assepa]

Another problem with election polls is that the polls influence the result. Some people will see the poll results and then decide to change their vote to something else, because they don't like the outcome they saw in the polls.

[@imightbebiased9311]

Additionally, you're relying on the honesty of the people in those polls. You could very easily have a concerted group of liars ruin your poll. Remember, you're only taking a 2000 person sample, 15 people saying they're going to do Thing A when they intend to do Thing B is probably enough to screw up your results.

[@monicaperez2843]

Sometimes a person will lie at a poll, especially an entrance/exit poll at a voting poll because they are accompanied by a spouse or friend, had they told them the truth, they would hear about it all day long, or even worse. That's why my parents didn't even tell each other whom they are voting for!

[@randomuser5237]

If you're a good statistician then you can account for most of those factors including the possibility that people will not be honest and/or there will be bias. There are whole fields on sample collection and analysis of possibly biased results. There's a reason people like Nate Silver and many other good statistician get consistently good results.

[@CleverAccountName303]

I don't think too many people are changing their votes, but you are correct that polling has an effect. More likely, it is people deciding to not bother to vote if they think their candidate is going to win anyway. So polls with wide spreads tend to get narrower and narrower the closer you get to the election.

[@AJ23mady]

That makes no sense

[@Hahahahaaahaahaa]

I am SO glad he brought up what he refers to as the "out of how many" issue. It is, likely one of the most compelling reasons for false convictions in the US. It happens ALL the time in all kinds of courts. The Disney example is so useful too. Linked to confirmation bias, when we see something we think is rare, we forget how many chances we had to see it, and how many other 'things' we would have felt that special about that we didn't see. Great great video.

[@erenjaegerbomb8653]

I broadly agree, thought the Disney example was certainly revealing. Though on reflection, 1 in 200 is still a chance low enough to be amazed by.

[@yesdcotchin]

I wondered if that 1/200 also factored in all the chances he'd had to be surprised by seeing someone he knew at an event since the last time that happened

[@jonatanrullman]

Not sure it was the best example though. The case in question is notable for the statistical error and deservedly considered a miscarriage of justice. But the odds of it happening by chance twice in the same family is still staggering. In the US there is, with recent statistics, only about 3000 SIDS-like deaths per year (and not all of them actual SIDS) out of about 3,5 million births. I'll let someone else calculate the odds of that happening twice in one family without an underlying cause (since the point here was the pure statistical pronsbility) but lets just say it's not an everyday occurance. So while a good example of bad statistics and flawed reasoning, it is hardly a good example of the out of how many problem and it is certainly a stretch to say it is likely to occur. The Disney example though, I thought, was excellent for that point.

[@nekrataali]

People hear "Only 1 in 283 million billion googleplex people will have this happen to them" and forget that...yeah, there's that one guy who had the thing happen to them. There has to be someone it happened to, otherwise it wouldn't be 1 in 500 trillion or whatever. It'd be a 0% chance of happening.

[@twalton]

I really liked this guy. Please bring him back!

[@quickSilverXMen]

This is one of my fav WIRED QnA video , I watched it multiple times. The level of obvious and intuitive and counter intuitive questions asked by the expert and answer given by him firstly accepting the question's obviousness is awesome.

[@_Xeto]

This guy is delightful, and seems so approachable. His students are lucky!

[@syedzohaibahmed5176]

I wish my statistics teacher was like him, I could have learned a lot more.

[@zjardynliera-hood5609]

I saw this guy live along with other stats titans of our era, truly inspirational stuff

[@zusiarosenthal4674]

I love how passionate he is about what he does. I love watching people who love what they do; their eyes always light up and they get animated. They’re the ones who make learning fun

[@will.isnull]

As a statistician, I really enjoyed the simplicity of his explanations. I would love to sit in one of his lectures!

[@phillipchristoffersen749]

Took this guy's class at Toronto, one of the best in my undergrad. Really good lecturer

[@wobblyorbee279]

the way he explains make studying the statistics is so fun! the illustrations are good, and i love how he answers step by step

[@mohammadalaaelghamry8010]

Extremely useful, very precise, straight forward and every question is very well explained, thank you.

[@rieskimo]

Jeffrey's family member "Wow! It's so weird that we saw you in Disney" Jeffrey "...It was pretty likely"

[@Najahfreeman]

Watching someone so genuine, passionate and smart talk about something is seriously what we need more everywhere. Internet tv, radio etc.

[@peterkapinos277]

Please have this guy on again. As other users have said, I could listen to him for hours, exactly as it was presented.

[@_stevenrosa9710]

This guy is giving me flashbacks to my probability and statistics for engineers and I'm UNWELL.

[@joeboo8626]

Same. I liked the probability part, but the confidence intervals and mu (meyou i don't remember the symbol or spelling)... I had no idea what I was doing. Most confusing class I ever had.

[@ObtainThePain]

@@joeboo8626 wait if you're in that class, shouldn't you already know mu being the coefficient of friction?

[@greekstreek370]

@@ObtainThePain yo man he just said he found the class confusing give him a break

[@erikrusso9808]

@@ObtainThePain mu is not the coefficient of friction in statistics, variables can be different things in other disciplines

[@mehwhyausername1]

@@erikrusso9808 maybe he's talking about the symbol itself, not its usage. most people taking a probability and statistics for engineers class would've already seen mu in a mechanics class, as it's used to represent coeff for friction in that setting. if someone says they forgot the symbol or spelling for mu, that may seem weird to other engineers and scientists, who would think that they would've remembered mu as a Greek letter often used in various contexts.

[@WestExplainsBest]

Agreed. Learning more about statistics (and numerous other things) empowers people to think for themselves. Don't be blind followers!

[@themachine9000]

“Cough cough” Trumpies

[@vspatmx7458]

the person who understands and uses stats will take better decisions than a person who doesn't use stats.

[@TheRavenfish9]

It is so exciting to me when someone really knowledgeable about a challenging topic makes it easier for the average person to understand. Just goes to show what a good teacher can do for learning. Great guest!

[@MMHay16]

Every question answered with a smile on his face. Here's someone who loves his job

[@LightningFireGG5]

I needed this when I was taking statistics last year haha

[@taahaahussain1477]

Haha same 😅

[@eddy2561]

Yup, I struggled with stats but needed the class to graduate......

[@KingTubeAR]

finally a nerd, what are the chances of a bot replying to your comment in this particular video

[@taahaahussain1477]

@@KingTubeAR high probability

[@KingTubeAR]

@@taahaahussain1477firstly that is actually wrong, there are more non replied comments than there are ones, and secondly I was asking @flxmexys

[@elnobbodor]

I love his use of the "out of how many" error. Really mind-blowing that the lady's own attorney couldn't come up with this defense for her. Does anyone know what that error is actually called? I'd love to teach it in my own class.

[@gwydionml6479]

Conditional probability error. Look up “Making a Math Murderer”. There should be a video of the specific case

[@cragnog]

@@gwydionml6479 oo la, you on that V sauce

[@iesika7387]

This kind of probability error is really important in DNA cases as well as those are usually determined to one in a few tens of thousands of people at best. It would be a really wild coincidence to get fingered for a crime by some other means and have your DNA be that close - but if you were already nabbed because you were in the same minority in the same general area where you might be related to a lot of people nearby, or if you were grabbed out of a DNA database on a partial match with no other evidence against you, DNA is not necessarily the smoking gun most jurors are going to think it is if they don't understand both the science of DNA analysis and the statistics (which is why you need a better defense attorney than you're likely to get).

[@c2thamax246]

Because the defense attorney had the same attitude every other non math major has towards math and just wanted a passing grade! Numberphile has great video on this phenomenon where they flip a coin until they get 10 heads in a row or something (which is unlikely to happen itself) but if you repeat the experiment 1000 times it becomes quite like to happen at least once.

[@garrettkajmowicz]

It's referred to as The Prosecutor's Fallacy".

[@irimac1806]

I liked the way he explained things. Really nice :D

[@aulto]

I swear this series just makes me want to become a professor. Being able to share this kind of knowledge is so cool

[@blackeye7272]

Most loved category that ever saw in this channel . Loved it so much ! Very very useful things he said ,and analyzed. Please bring him back one more time .

[@set-tes4316]

As a med student I loooove statistics, I find it essential to understand what goes on with the maths to understand research results and not just read percentages that could mean a lot of things.

[@syjiang]

Be sure to nail the interpretation of p-value like our professor here. A lot of my colleague interpret that value incorrectly. But the most important one to master is Bayesian statistics and the fagan nomogram. Just ask any cardiac consultants.

[@balltillwefall8284]

If I had to pick a statistician out of a crowd of random people, most would pick this guy!! That being said, you can tell that he loves what he does. He speaks with passion and gets his point across clear and concise.

[@B.H.56]

When my state lottery started, they gave out coupon for a free ticket. I went in and picked 1-2-3-4-5-6. The clerk looked at me askance and said "What are the odds of those numbers coming up?" I said, "exactly the same as any other sequence of numbers."

[@AntonAdelson]

power move right there!

[@robspiess]

Downside is that many, many other people picked those numbers as well (edit: myself included, whenever asked), and if they come up you would have to split the prize with them.

[@B.H.56]

@@robspiess I doubt it, most people are playing birthdays and other "lucky" numbers.

[@robspiess]

@@B.H.56 Yep, most do. But even if .01% are the type to play 123456 that'll still be a dozen people to share the pretty-much-guaranteed-not-to-happen winnings

[@Ennugia]

That story is as old as time, and it's not yours, Rebecca.

[@Hondomoto_]

These are so interesting, I could seriously not care less about most of these topics but its something about seeing a normal person speak so expertly and explaining so plainly things I haven't really considered, its addicting to watch . I mean if they did one of these about like botanists I would watch still watch it.

[@jasonavina8135]

we need a whole series on statistics like this, i'd like to see this professor and others brought in to do it, although Jeff doing it all would be great too

[@andreafeelsfantastic]

Hmmm, and maybe these professors could do this series in a big room, we could call it a “lecture hall”, and we could all gather there and take notes…

[@jasonavina8135]

@@andreafeelsfantastic actually given that ive been taken stats in a lecture hall and watched videos online i can say theres a huge role amazing series can play on youtube. i bet people would appreciate a series on stats like that. But maybe your totally uncalled for sour attude is based on the fact that you made very simplisitic videos nobody really needed or wanted to watch.

[@xynyde0]

@@andreafeelsfantastic 🤣

[@laurenlala6717]

I love learning so many different things because of this series. It makes everything so interesting. Thanks wired!

[@specialknees6798]

statistics is one subject that I find really fascinating and interesting, but it can feel super unapproachable. I'm quite intuitive when it comes to math but stats is one branch of it that I find myself having to frequently relearn. It can be frustrating, but its a super useful field of study when you know how to make use of it

[@squeakygiant]

If you are already strong in math, simulation could be a good tool to understand some of the core stats concepts. There are lots of simulation examples out there on the internet.

[@Gwendolineeve]

an expert that talks about their field is always so interesting and well explained

[@Nekology87]

That was such good vibes. Thank you Jeffrey! total delight to watch. Hooray for gaining new perspectives!

[@DustinWilder96]

This man's joyful attitude is contagious, I could easily sit through one of his lectures

[@dea9800]

Imagine if he actually got stuck down by a lightning bolt 😭

[@guspolly]

11:23 - I’m sure he skipped over it in the interest of time/simplicity, but it’s worth pointing out that birthdays aren’t equally proportioned, i.e., there are some days of the year that more people have birthdays on than others, and that can influence the calculation if you want to go that deep.

[@purplegill10]

Moreover, the time when parents actually conceive their children isn't random either. Given that they're all in the same generation, perhaps holidays, honeymoons, birthdays, or even some kind of wild tiny genetic factor all played into it and any gigantic number of other variables as well.

[@pierrickpatrygobeil3724]

I know I'm a valentine's day baby, probably like a lot of scorpions!

[@tuxedobob2]

Indeed. At that point you have to do weighted probabilities.

[@merrymachiavelli2041]

More babies tend to be born in late September and early October, as a result of conceptions in January. February 29th is the rarest birthday. You also notably get slightly fewer babies born on Christmas day and new years and more born slightly before and after, as a result of some parents choosing not to induce births on those days. In a given year you also get more children being born on weekdays, but that obviously doesn't effect birthday frequency over multiple years, as whether a date is a weekday or not varies year to year.

[@nmd4332]

An interesting point to bring up, but I don't think anything was really skipped there, the question was 'what are the odds of 3 generations being born on the same day?' and not 'what are the odds that all 3 generations were born on January 10?'

[@Mj-kl3rb]

I saw the thumbnail and immediately recognized him. He taught me stats. Glad to see him getting recognition on wired

[@ahha6304]

11:22 "3 gens born on the same day" my family has that, either it will be 18 September or 28 July, minus/plus 3 days max

[@vaklinpetkov7496]

loved how passionate and articulate this guest was

[@HolaWorld]

I really enjoyed this! His enthusiasm is contagious.

[@puzzLEGO]

I always thought statistician was a weird occupation but man, it's hard

[@nathanwycoff4627]

nah you were right we're pretty weird too

[@stevekru6518]

Surveys often show applied math occupations, like statistician, are the most satisfying, happiest careers.

[@Sanguinaryyy]

I analyzed and calculated that there was a 100% probability of me liking this video and this awesome man! Thanks for the great answers.

[@natnoiloikor989]

Dear Wired, please do more of stats support. Sincerely One of a Thai Fans

[@vmvengsub3812]

I love that even though his face isn't expressive, maybe because he's nervous, but his eyes are still full of passion.

[@digvijaysinghrana3351]

Thanks for uploading it just 18 hours before my stats exam.

[@AlanWiltsie]

I often feel like the only one but I absolutely love statistics.

[@RP-ly9rd]

im jealous of the people who have him as a teacher, delightful man.

[@NickeNacho]

RIP Jeffrey Rosenthal Struck by lightning only hours after this interview took place..

[@Cyberspine]

That story of the woman being imprisoned based on nothing but an elementary misunderstanding of probability is so depressing.

[@timothymoore2197]

I'm glad he touched a bit on "Combinatorics" for the viewers, really shows how many possible combinations and probabilities of events there are, if we are thinking about all the different aspects of the situation :-)

[@drditup]

"Gamblers fallacy" is the name for thinking being in one planecrash reduces the odds of being in another plane crash. But more commonly, if you haven't rolled a 6 on a die you believe that the odds of getting a 6 increases, but every roll has the exact same odds of rolling a 6.

[@markcarey67]

This only applies to uncorrelated, or independent events though - if events become correlated, say in a market panic or a pandemic, then this ceases to apply

[@ruinouswraith8675]

the way the question is phrased, it actually is less likely you'll be in another plane crash because the odds you die in the first plane crash are greater than zero (and if you die in the first crash you can't exactly go on another plane ride). Also, if we can assume that plane technology generally gets better over time, surviving farther into the future will mean that a 2nd plane ride is less likely to crash due to better technology, more safety features. Nitpicking, but I'd say the first point is kind of important conceptually when thinking statistically, second one is probably negligible over a lifetime

[@lecantalouprouge]

Him using the stuffed frog to explain one concept is my favorite thing in this video!

[@SeliLoves]

I love the Tech Support series! Seeing all these people talk about their passions and me and hopefully others, benefitting and learning new things. Thanks WIRED!

[@manuelmedels2624]

I'm sure his classes are already full, but after this video they will definitely fill up quick! Great job!

[@Czeckie]

Jeffrey Rosenthal wrote few great books. My favourite is his textbook on mathematical probability theory - guy has a talent for being succinct yet rigorous. If you don't need an actual serious textbook, for leisure reading I recommend his 'Struck by Lightning' that's for general audience.

[@oggouz]

Wait wtf i just read his name in ykur comment. We were using one of his books in a class in Univercity. I studied Informatics and Telecommunications in the University of Athens, Greece. Didnt even realise it was him. Glad to see he is such a nice person, his book was really helpfull as well. In fact, I think I still got it in my library

[@rizqiefajar]

Wow. I knew statistics is important, but this really opened my eyes to how incredibly crucial it is

[@Patralgan]

The most improbable thing that happened to me was when I was in a locker room in my vocational school and my friend somehow decided to test the key of his moped to my locker and to our surprise it opened the locker. We compared the keys of my locker and the moped key and indeed they were identical.

[@leslaw1979]

The most improbable part would be the story being true

[@Patralgan]

@@leslaw1979 ikr, but it IS true. That's why I thought it would be a good true story to tell in a video like this.

[@ArtificialFertilizer]

It's not that impossible. There are not so many templates of keys made by cheaper producers and duplicates are not that hard to find. Actually there were duplicate locks in lockers in my junior high school so it was possible to open somebody else's locker in some cases. :P

[@Patralgan]

@@ArtificialFertilizer I think you're right. It was still pretty wild

[@louisd.8928]

7:19 A semi-famous Canadian politician once claimed that our crime rate was way up. Journalists cornered him and said that all available official statistics pointed in the other direction. The politician's response? ''Yeah, but that's only reported crimes. The rate for unreported crimes is WAY up.'' I do wonder how one obtains data on something that is unreported.

[@lifestealer4699]

I didn't know Ron Jeremy was a statistician

[@ernest3286]

This is so helpful to explain these concepts! Statistics really is unintuitive, and I think if more people just realized that alone, we'd have a lot less irrational beliefs.

[@dopaminecloud]

The broad concept of bias is definitely worthy of being common knowledge. Both statistical and cognitive.

[@ernest3286]

@@dopaminecloud Agreed!

[@russianbigbird4161]

In theoretical mathematics 100% is a possibility, but when it comes to real life applications, there's always gonna be some outside factors skewing the data

[@onkelpappkov2666]

Lack of infinite time is a restricting factor, you say?

[@kentabenno]

14:47 I've once heard about a person who always carries a small piece of a crashed airplane in his luggage when he flies, because he believes that there is no way that this piece can fall off the sky twice... 😂 Crazy to think about the few people who have survived two plane crashes (like Ernest Hemingway)

[@BogdanMicic]

There's also an amazing joke about a guy, who carries a bomb with him, when he flies. When asked why he would take a bomb on a plane, he answers that he does it to fly safer, because it is so unlikely to be on a plane with a second bomb on the plane.

[@brianmiller1077]

flying was a lot less safe in Papa's time. :)

[@onkelpappkov2666]

@@BogdanMicic It's a great deterrent. "I have a gun, this airplane is now mine!" "I have a bomb." "Aight I'm gonna sit myself back down, forget what I said."

[@Palpatine4Senate]

This guy's hair is a Bell curve.

[@nandoaires]

Talk about a true statistics fan. 😀

[@gamingwithdingo]

😂maybe he knows

[@gamingwithdingo]

😂maybe he knows

[@ndowroccus4168]

lol…yesh humsn hair is an hilsrious joke. I bet he has more bank potential than 95% of populace. IF he were subject to corruption….

[@nb9797]

Tails are actually fatter. Don't worry, it's a normal assumption to make.

[@badnewsBH]

It's absolutely vital for people to learn about statistics. Nothing teaches you critical thinking skills better than looking at how people can use, misuse or even concoct stats to support their positions, no matter what those positions are.