Risk & Uncertainty SIMPLIFIED | ACCA F5 / PM | Question Cement

[@SteveWillisACCA]

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[@ACCAStudyResources]

Thank you Steve for the mention. ACCA Student Study Resources are continuously adding videos to the channel to help our students and Steve is a regular face and voice on many of the PM videos :)

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Very welcome!

[@mubashirsherdil3382]

Best teacher out there. Steve Willis!

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Thanks! And good luck tomorrow :)

[@JamesWrightACCA]

Thank you for the mention Steve and a really helpful video here! 😁 Great to hear your find my ACCA materials helpful and keep up the good work! Would be great to collaborate on future projects sometime 😁 All the best! J

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Absolutely! Would be fun :)

[@JamesWrightACCA]

@@SteveWillisACCA Ping me a message on LinkedIn anytime and I'll give you a shout next time I'm in Prague too ha! 👍 Have a great day! 👍

[@jasbirsinghkhalsa3099]

Thank you very much for uploading this near to exams.... :)

[@SteveWillisACCA]

You're very welcome--good luck next week

[@afua3410]

Thankyou so much- you explained this so nice and clearly!!!

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Glad it helped!

[@shuaibmahdi167]

Thank you Steve; Really Appreciated.

[@SteveWillisACCA]

My pleasure

[@masitah13]

Thank you so much sir!! I finally understand this topic

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Excellent! Good luck next week.

[@umarkeldibekov6924]

You perfect Steve, thank you

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Glad it helped!

[@fredstar.S.A.]

thank you so much, but what about the value of imperfect information, how can we calculate it

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Hi there--it's in the video at 13:57

[@abdullahimohamudadendaakir2233]

Please whare is the link that i can get PDF

[@SteveWillisACCA]

hi there--the link is in the description of the video. It's also right here :) drive.google.com/file/d/1pv9NZNdasRe_cBQATXRFt930QUJOkBOQ/view

[@leesheridan5685]

Useful.

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Glad it was helpful!

[@razlaedappatta-1776]

Sir. Value of imperfect information is not in our chapters..?

[@SteveWillisACCA]

This is the same thing as Expected Values--profit at each possibly outcome * Probability of each outcome.

[@gracebarwe1474]

Very helpful Steve, i am not ure if its not too late for me though exam is day after tomorrow

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Fingers crossed

[@MikeHampton.]

Hi Steve, I have a Q on this. Ive just seen the mark scheme for this question, it is as follows: (a) Pay off table Calculation of profit 1 Calculation of loss 1 ‘Demand’ label 0·5 ‘Supply’ label 0·5 Weather column 0·5 Supply column - 350,000 1·5 Supply column - 280,000 1·5 Supply column - 200,000 1·5 --- 8 In your answer, there is no “weather” column, would you need to add an extra column between columns C and D to show which demand figure relates to which weather condition?

[@MikeHampton.]

Very helpful video by the way.

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Glad it was helpful! Good point on the marking guide and always good to check those out. I made a column for demand instead of weather, it looks like there was another 0.5 marks for making a corresponding 'weather' column.

[@wardasana]

i have a confusion in calculation of perfect information why we choose 1000,000*0.30 why we not choose 1000,000*0.45 or 1000,000*.25

[@SteveWillisACCA]

It's like this: "if the weather is bad, I will produce 200 and take a profit of 1000K. (that's the highest profit when weather is bad). 30% chance of this. If the weather is medium, i will choose to produce 280, that give me the highest profit, and a 45% chance of this..." Does this help?

[@wardasana]

@@SteveWillisACCA will we always choose that option in perfect informaton where demand and production are equal ?

[@wardasana]

@@SteveWillisACCA we will not see which option had more probability or which option make more profit ? because if consider that then in poor weather production 200 and demand 280 with 45% chances gives us more profit than other options 630k

[@SteveWillisACCA]

For the value of perfect info question, you need to ask yourself: (1) if weather is poor, what is the BEST profit? (2) if weather is medium, what is the BEST profit? (3) if weather is good, what is the BEST profit? After you have these 3 figures, you say (1) what is the probability of POOR? (2) what is probability of Medium? (3) what is probability of GOOD? Then, you do a weighted average profit with those figures.

[@wardasana]

@@SteveWillisACCA ohh now I got it , Thank you so much for answering and clearing all my confusions mostly teachers donot reply because they have no time

[@damilolaafolabi5054]

pls Steve in the last video you did, your VC was based on the lower between capacity and demand , but here it is based purely on production. Why the seeming discrepancy?

[@SteveWillisACCA]

Great question! It's like a bakery in this question, they make the bread in the morning but have to throw away the unsold bread at the end of the day. So if they produce 100 but sell 10, sales are 10 units, production 100 units

[@damilolaafolabi5054]

@@SteveWillisACCA thank very much. I understand. Your videos are easy to understand

[@damilolaafolabi5054]

@@SteveWillisACCA so in the exam, how would we know which one to use?

[@SteveWillisACCA]

You'll have to read the scenario and interpret the situation. The delivery van story didn't say anything about unsold good being disposed of. Cement didn't say anything about lost goodwill.