Stew's U.S. High Speed Rail News | October 2024 | Brightline West CAHSR Acela Northeast Corridor

[@jonathankleinow2073]

Wonder how much Southwest Airlines is spending to fund "Texans Against High Speed Rail."

[@LucidStew]

They're a nonprofit, so it should be possible to find out.

[@LucidStew]

One of their board members appears to work for an energy company called Entergy. Otherwise its mostly local judges. They also appear to be functionally broke. As far as I can tell there is no connection to Southwest, and their lobbying power is rather limited.

[@tonyburzio4107]

Airlines have no need to be afraid of trains.

[@IronHorsefan1869]

Hopefully ZERO considering they have no business doing short haul travels!

[@RussSmith-xu6kd]

I would guess “Big Oil” companies are padding the opposition🥺.

[@wflinner]

Alstom is reeeeeeeal bold to be suing like this when the trainsets they delivered were already supposed to be in service by now LOL

[@maly2ts408]

It seems like there are still a lot of nimby's or anti rail people in the US all they achieve is delaying a project so it cost more

[@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis]

NIMBYs can be a real pain.

[@lalakerspro]

Never donated on YT ever but you deserve it, best channel ive found for my foamer ass

[@LucidStew]

Thank you. I will try to keep the information flowing!

[@cornkopp2985]

I've been following the baltimore tunnel stuff a little because I live in the area and from what I understand, there's a few different groups at play. Ultimately the main criticism seems to be around a (not true) belief that the tunnels will be used by diesel freight trains, causing the ventilation building to perpetually spew out diesel smog into the community. I think this may have been a plan at some point but it was taken out of the plans long ago if so.

[@LucidStew]

I was reading through some of the responses to community questions earlier in the year. Some of them are pretty wild like 'what if there's a chemical spill?' or 'what if there's an explosion?'. There does seem to be some misunderstanding that freight will not being moving through there. The ventilation facility in question, the FRA says even if they did have to emergency exhaust, its built in such a way that ambient pollution would still be below EPA limits.

[@alexisdespland4939]

i the new casino next to brigth lines terminal in vegas shouldbe built to a railway theme.

[@LucidStew]

Station Casinos is a Las Vegas outfit. They own a bunch of casinos in the area include Palace Station on the other side of I-15 from the north end of The Strip.

[@tonyburzio4107]

The owner of Brightline West is Fortress, but Fortress is owned by Mabudala, an arm of the United Arab Emirates government. They are currently very involved in gambling (odd for a Muslim country) and auto racing which is why they are in Vegas after Florida. Everyone involved is into real estate.

[@gabingston3430]

Hopefully it buttresses Brightline's revenue stream, so that even if the train itself isn't making an operating profit the company on whole is due to real estate.

[@claybears]

Looking forward to construction videos! Thanks for all these great updates!

[@LucidStew]

Thank you! working on funding for the 5th trip now. We may need to think up additional events/equipment for these contributions.

[@georgefunk9386]

Thanks!

[@LucidStew]

Thank you. A 4th Vegas trips is just about sewed up.

[@scottydude456]

Rare “Stew posting the news in the correct month” moment

[@jaimiepotts]

with the high desert corridor, I don't get why they aren't designing a delta junction so you can have a Bay Area to Vegas service

[@LucidStew]

Cheaper to rely on transfers. They can always add connections later to respond to growth in the High Desert. CAHSR will be late to the party anyway. On the San Bernardino side, I'm not sure how much demand there is for high speed rail between Palmdale and Hesperia or Rancho.

[@tonyburzio4107]

Because the United Arab Emirates could care less, and they own Brightline West.

[@seanschannel3264]

This. Easier to do transfers initally which would be good enough. A cross platform transfer that leaves 4 minutes after your inbound train arrives is common practice. Later on, adding a flyover or two for CAHSR (when it arrives) wouldn't be that expensive and wouldn't be that complicated compared to almost everything else they've been doing. I'd say $20M maximum for a loop track and flyover track, which is pocket change for CAHSR compared to the full costs of the system.

[@LucidStew]

@@tonyburzio4107 They still have to deal with local political pressure, hence the Hesperia station and seats dedicated to commuters on morning and evening trains.

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

@@seanschannel3264 as long as there's room left for it then yeah it can always be added later if/when the demand is there. Though then it becomes a question of if the potential long term benefits still outweigh the short term costs, which the longer the wait to build the more that ratio can potentially swing toward no longer being worth it. That can apply toward infrastructure in general.

[@user-wm3hu7lo1g]

Texas in the neighborhood of Illinois?!

[@LucidStew]

In a state as big as Texas, 600 miles is practically next door.

[@Unmannedperson]

To be fair, Texarkana TX is closer to Chicago IL than El Paso TX...

[@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis]

​@@Unmannedperson That is an absolutely wild fact I did not know!

[@RVail623]

When are those Acela replacement rolling stock that's been sitting on a Philadelphia rail siding for something like 2 years now going to finally begin revenue service?

[@LucidStew]

The latest rumors I've heard is early next year.

[@tonyburzio4107]

The next year thing was totally made up by rail fans. They aren't going anywhere.

[@kevinrichard1020]

A little insider scoop. July 2025 is looking promising

[@rcoughlan3233]

I heard that the trains weren't built to the correct height standards for the train platforms. Amtrak is going to need to adjust the platforms or the trains, so we probably won't be seeing them in service for a while.

[@LucidStew]

@@tonyburzio4107 😂totally possible

[@bjturon]

Go Team Drone! 🛸

[@LucidStew]

Zoom! Thanks again. I'm going to use a few bucks while I'm up in the desert to do an HDC video, so you have that mostly covered.

[@tifskrans4464]

First vid I catch after subscribing😮

[@LucidStew]

Thanks for the sub!

[@justinmoreno3139]

LAREDO, TEXAS MENTIONED RAHHHHH

[@Canadianinvesting]

Honey, I need to go to Vegas to film a video for the channel. Seems like a pretty solid excuse to go to Vegas every month. All I can say is well done. Gentleman's clap lol

[@LucidStew]

I'm unencumbered and free of such concerns.

[@chistogo3]

🚂🎥Fund

[@LucidStew]

Choo choo fund! Thanks. I have an idea to roll some of this into a trip out to the HDC as well since the fund is getting a little ahead of the work.

[@MichelPetkovic]

This is a great project...Finally, USA will have decent trains for the 21st century. However, I don't understand why only single track, since double track is the standard in most countries that have high-speed rail...and secondly, why is the station located in Ranch Cucamonga, It's too far from downtown LA.

[@LucidStew]

Cost is the explanation on both counts. As it is, getting from the I-15 right of way to the Rancho 8th St. station on viaduct is going to be one of the most expensive singular infrastructure pieces on the project.

[@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis]

@@LucidStewthat is an excellent point about double track for high speed lines: bridges and tunnels roughly double the cost of those portions, because it usually is necessary to build two of them to allow speeds greater than 125 MPH due to track spacing.

[@Ven100]

Spain also implemented single-track on some of its HSR network. With proper planning and headways this will not be a problem.

[@chastermief3501]

first at everything apperently

[@mangoide]

Ty for the information

[@LucidStew]

You are welcome for the information!

[@ryan225360]

I live near Horseheads and Hornell - do you potentially want footage from down there? I could make a trip pretty easily.

[@LucidStew]

Footage of the construction of the plant would be sweet. Also anything coming out of the plants as a completed product is welcome. Don't go out of your way, though. If you happen to be in the neighborhood, I'm quite happy to utilize the contribution. Also, I'm happy to return the favor with credit or shoutouts, or whatever.

[@TheWolfHowling]

1:30 Sounds like Alstom is having an acute case of Sour Grapes. Somebody better summon a Wambulance for them.

[@gregfargo9325]

as a st louisan I am excited for the chicago stl video

[@jasonreed7522]

While I'm sure that Schumer demanding that HSR train manufacturing happen in NY is purely about jobs, i hope its a prelude to NY finally buying some themselves. While i know the routing would be difficult, the Empire Corridor being true HSR would do great things for the state. Especially if built all the way to Toronto so the corridor can be anchored by the largest city in both countries.

[@LucidStew]

New York state's Empire Corridor plan is designed to utilize speeds of 90mph without electricity, so I wouldn't count on them using these sets. Even if they electrified, it would be something more like the ACS-64s they use on the NEC. They make those in California now, but I suppose its not impossible they could make them at Horseheads as well, eventually.

[@timothystamm3200]

The best routing for high speed rail from New York to Buffalo and through Buffalo would likely be to mostly use the Delaware, Lackawanna, and Western with the Lackawanna Cut-Off and then whatever right of way is straightest and least infested by Norfolk Southern. New York to Montreal and Boston to Chicago via Buffalo and Detroit or Cleveland should be the ones to use New York Central, Delaware, and Hudson or paralleling rights of way.

[@jasonreed7522]

@@LucidStew i understand its mainly a marketing difference between 90mph and true HSR at 125, its just frustrating for a state that used to be a transportation leader to be so unambitious with its corridor. And that corridor is truly a no-brainer. Built by the Erie canal, and anchored by NYC and Toronto you are guaranteed ridership. And the cities in the middle could use the stimulus it would provide. At this point we probably have to settle for hoping that are smart enough to atleast make provisions for upgrades to electric and higher speeds so its cheaper if they get around to them. (Simple stuff like buying a wider and straighter corridor) In the mean time they need to work on getting the frieght trains out of the way of passenger trains. I also find it funny to put a ton of effort in securing the manufacturing of a product you don't intend to buy.

[@jasonreed7522]

@@timothystamm3200 there are definitely some no-brainer corridors in the northeast and great lakes regions. Empire all the way to Toronto. Quebec - Windsor with extension to Chicago. NYC-Montreal, Boston - Albany, and a Buffalo - Chicago via Cleveland. All of them are great city pairs with logical stops along the way. Its just the mountainous geography of the northeast isn't the most convenient for building a straight line on the cheap. (And i assume inside the cities you either have to accept the existing infrastructure or pay through the nose for grade separation of a new corridor)

[@timothystamm3200]

@jasonreed7522 do you know what the Lackawanna Cutoff is? It's already built right of way from the end of the Morristown line to Scranton PA that just so happens to conform to high-speed rail standards. Using the Empire Corridor requires detouring through Albany. Don't get me wrong, the old New York Central mainline can be useful, but Downstate to Albany through Utica to get to Syracuse has lots of people, but so does Newark through North Central New Jersey to Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, Binghamton, and Ithaca to Syracuse. For expresses and some semi and locals (by high speed standards), I would prefer the more direct route that also happens to already have some ready to go infrastructure. Again, though, I'm not counting Empire/NY Central Main Line and parallel out for other routes like New York to Montreal and Boston to Buffalo, Detroit or Cleveland, Lansing or Toledo, and Chicago, and for a local or alternate semi, you could combine parts of separate lines or run them frequently enough to make transfers seemless.

[@LMB222]

There's hope. That's good. We root for you, dear American Friends!

[@judejohnson6336]

For the algorithm

[@LucidStew]

For the Algo!

[@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis]

That podcast looks interesting, I will have to check it out.

[@LucidStew]

nice

[@gabingston3430]

8:55 Future video, anyone?

[@LucidStew]

I could see it. Maybe after the Canadian one. I was looking at it while making this.

[@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis]

It’s a bigger project than resuming the Aztec Eagle service that ran through to Mexico City.

[@mkrick]

Is the 15 Fwy widening between Hesperia and Victorville that has been going on part of the Brightline West construction or is that unrelated? Seems to start around where the station is going in at Hesperia.

[@LucidStew]

Unrelated, but they will be leaving room for it in the median.

[@V-BuccaneersisH1M]

Is it possible that the Illinois HSR can electrify, that way there can be a true HSL connecting Chicago and St. Louis?

[@elicarlson7682]

I just want HSR from Quincy to Springfield or to St. Louis 😭🙏

[@LucidStew]

Yes, that is on the table. They are considering all options. Doesn't mean they'll pick that, but possible, sure. Make sure to watch my Chicago-St. Louis video when it comes out next week. I'm going to have an option in there you might find interesting.

[@PASH3227]

AWWWWW SICK!

[@KyrilPG]

Hey Stew! Lawsuits after awarded contracts are quite common with main manufacturers. There were a few ones between CAF, Alstom, Siemens, and Bombardier in Europe (Paris, and elsewhere). Usually about the process not being perfectly followed, or relaxing a rule after the bid for one manufacturer, which is, of course, a skewing the playing field. Here, it's quite comparable, as apparently, both manufacturers weren't treated equally, which is the basis of the complaint. If one must jump through 10 hoops, the other can't be spared from jumping the same number of hoops... It's not great for the project, sure, but it's better that they file a lawsuit now to contest the way the contract was awarded than later just to demand compensation. I'm guessing it's mostly to have more leeway, by setting a precedent and-or relaxing the FRA / buy American rules for the CAHSR bid, which is the one that Alstom always was much more interested in (compared to Brightline West).

[@LucidStew]

It's interesting to note that the exemption which allowed Alstom to originally import 2 prototype sets also applied to Siemens, as they were also in contention at that time to provide the Amtrak sets for the NEC. One of the FRA's arguments is that this waiver actually still applies.

[@KyrilPG]

​@@LucidStew Yeah, but that was 25 years ago when there were basically no capabilities to build locally, and that's a part of Alstom's argument today if I recall correctly. Another thing that I forgot to add in the first commemt is that it might also be to force Siemens to team up and use an Alstom factory instead of importing a pair of prototypes (or build an important portion of said prototypes in a US Alstom factory). CAF, Bombardier, Siemens, Alstom have all done this to force an alliance using various arguments. Sometimes it's about production delays or capacity, like one manufacturer issues a complaint about the winner's claims, which forces them to team up with the plaintiff in order to meet their claims. But I'm pretty sure it's about either clearly ironcladding, or relaxing / reshaping the FRA / "buy American" rules for the CAHSR bid. As the type of trains needed for Brightline West are more Siemens forte. But the trains needed for CAHSR are Alstom forte, and they really are eyeing this one. (Proper HSR infrastructure, long distances, higher speeds, high capacity, energy constraints, that's where Alstom excells the most).

[@LucidStew]

@@KyrilPG Ah, I get you. That CAHSR order ultimately is a pretty big one, too. I take back saying it was petty. The rest probably still applies. :D

[@KyrilPG]

@@LucidStew I wouldn't be surprised if a couple US politicians were behind this lawsuit, like from a region where Alstom has factories. It seems like the reasons for a waiver to build 2 prototypes abroad no longer exist, and that's a part of Alstom lawsuit. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't have filed it without some political support. Anyway, we should know soon, starting by if the complaint is received or not. From what I understood, the lawsuit was worded in a way that it can only advance if the grounds of the plaintiff are recognized and validated. (Not sure of my own wording for this last sentence 😄). And as usual with these legal shenanigans, they could very well benefit Siemens, and others, just as much as Alstom. Given that they are often used to either define, relax or reshape regulations in a way that would benefit all manufacturers. That was the case in Europe, if I recall correctly, about an EU regulation forcing trains that won't ever run outside grade separated tracks to undergo unnecessary and costly road traffic collision tests just because they are a kind of heavy trains.

[@LucidStew]

@@KyrilPG Well, that's the thing. Schumer got both companies to commit to New York state, so I don't know. The two factory sites are only 40 miles apart. They're in different counties, but may be in the same Congressional district. I can't think of anyone who would benefit from that off-hand. It may be as simple as attempting to obstruct long enough to get the CAHSR contract since CAHSR wants to have those trains for testing in 4 years. BLW getting delayed by a year or 2 would just be collateral damage.

[@brucehain]

Thanks for all the informative stuff. I don't know why I'm not getting notifications because I've got it on full blast, but it may be the moderate moderators at Google think I'm too talkative or combative or something. OK so what's a Construction Augmentation RFP? And here's a fine example of some serious Texas politicians: "[bullet point] Within a Texas region, restrict non-transit cities from relocating businesses to transit cities." If I could figure out what it means I'd call it overkill. In any case I think Texas Politik is getting weirder if not woker. Albany Union Station has been sold for 1-million. So now I got another project: Trans-Hudson tunnel at Albany to get the Main Line (you know: "Four Tracks along the Hudson" - now down to 1 in places) and Castleton Cutoff (for the "New England States") into Union Station. It is more and more likely none of this will get done so as to have any effect. I just decided to try the tunnel on the off chance it could work, after trying off and on for years to get a feasible other route to the station. To my surprise the tunnel wouldda been a lot easier - and then I looked up Union Station and found it had been sold last month. It's so splendid! And the developer is pretty good with historic buildings... but... he wants to turn it into a bus terminal.

[@LucidStew]

You bet. I guess the Construction Augmentation RFP is a proposal they have to put out because the right of way is being augmented? The interesting part about it is that they advertise all their RFPs, so we should be able to tell that construction is imminent before heavy pieces of equipment stat moving. I often have similar experiences with existing train stations of the older type. I realize its better to put them to some use than let them rot, but a depressing amount that aren't rotten are used as event spaces.

[@brucehain]

@@LucidStew Oooooh. Boy I never wouldda fiigurred that out.. If they open that station again they'll double the ridership overnight. (Seaking of Albany.) It's not too bad - I've found out about the depth - it IS very deep. Water surface is average 2' - way up there 150 miles from the harbor I guess. Well there's a navigation channel I don't know the width yet, but I figure (even with their new rule of cover brought on by the Hudson Tunnel Proj. says cover must be 1/2 the tunnel diameter - whereas it was always 1/1 the diameter.) But Even Then - the depth is actually an asset - forces the dummy who wanted it higher to have it all underground - through this parking lot where I wanted bridges. Instead of being higher than the main (ground) level of the station as before it'll be a long story below, sticking to two percent, which is sort of a thing with me. It's a nice bite-sized chunk. Think I can get it in less than a month. I donno iif it's killing me or not - it gives me something to do, but then it's so obsessive. I'd like to come around to your Discord sometime - i still have my login - I picture trying to find out how to relate there might take a while. All my old friends think I'm ignoring them. It's like that novel the Steppenwolf, really. But on the other hand I can't seem to stop bending your ear. Chears.

[@ryccoh]

Stew, when do you realistically think the trainset in Cali will realistically first start commercially operating? I guess from Merced to Bakersfield i believe

[@LucidStew]

California High Speed Rail? I'd guess 2032 at the moment, but there's still plenty of funding that's up in the air.

[@tonyburzio4107]

Zero people want to travel between those two points.

[@JackKack-kk5dd]

​@@tonyburzio4107You're objectively wrong.

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

@@tonyburzio4107those two points will also have transit connections to the Bay Area/Sacramento and SoCal. Both ACE and Amtrak San Joaquins will connect with HSR in Merced, and Amtrak thruway buses in Bakersfield. There’ll also be other bus connections along the HSR route to other cities and destinations throughout California like the Central Coast and Yosemite and Sequoia/Kings Canyon NPs. The San Joaquins had close to 850,000 trips last fiscal year, making it the seventh busiest Amtrak route in the country, and a steady return toward the over one million annual trips it had pre-pandemic.

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

@@LucidStew my understanding is they’ll need the remainder of the funding for Merced-Bakersfield (totaling up to $7 billion) by the end of 2026 to meet the 2033 deadline. That’s according to a review of the 2024 Business Plan done this past July by the inspector general.

[@juanmontull8550]

13:20 Are they seriously building the Madera HSR Station in that location?

[@LucidStew]

Yes. I actually went up there earlier in the year. Just my luck the Ave 12 offramp was closed from the south. I ended up having to drive 7 miles out of the way, half of it through farmland, to get to the station site. No joke, Ave 13 on the north side of the site is a dirt road.

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

at least it's not CAHSR funding or building it. Though it still doesn't make sense to me as a station. First off, CAHSR will replace the San Joaquins south of Merced, presumably permanently. The Madera station is intended to be the one that passengers can directly transfer between HSR and Amtrak (even though this location will mean having to cross a parking lot), so if permanent truncation is indeed the case then there really is little point for this station. The location is less ideal for Madera than the current one in Madera Acres, and I seem to recall reading something about this station being more intended for new North Fresno neighborhoods (I'd need to find the source again though). Plus the Fresno and Merced stations won't be that far away from Madera relatively speaking (probably about 30 minutes or so on Highway 99 either way). Not to mention that compared to the other Central Valley HSR stations, this one will stand out as a bit of a sad excuse for one.

[@DanielSchramm]

You brushed over the Brightline Stuart station news, but I think it would be worth you doing a deeper read of what’s happening as it would be useful to give it some more exposure. I watched the city commission meeting and one of the commissioners was claiming that he wants the station, but Brightline has tried to change the terms that were previously agreed. If that’s true, then Brightline deserves some scrutiny to encourage them to do the right thing.

[@DanielSchramm]

The video is “9-23-2024 Regular Meeting of the Stuart City Commission” (tried to link it, but not sure if can share links in the comments) It’s a long video, but the segments relevant to Brightline are at 4:15 (this is the main part) and 4:34:30.

[@LucidStew]

I hope no one in the area thinks Brightline was going to spend $30 million just to have 4 trains a day stop at Stuart. Their foremost business is development. That's where they make their money. I'm not a lawyer, so I can't say how the language in these agreements obligates the involved parties. I would have rather heard this argument from or in consultation with a city lawyer than from a chiropractor. At some point they're talking about "Brightline agrees". To me that sounds different than "Brightline will". Again, I'm not a lawyer, but "agrees" sounds like weak language. In terms of doing the right thing... it's a private company. Their first obligation is to their business model and their investors, not the city. The city is the city's obligation. If everyone wants to renegotiate, they will. Thank you for directing me toward that commission video. I'm actually going to give you a boo boo on this because the 3-2 decision against the station agreement isn't really mysterious, is it? If I'd bothered to dig deeper, I likely would have figured that out.

[@DanielSchramm]

@@LucidStew agreed about development being the main aspect of Brightline’s business model (and rightfully so, value capture should be used to fund infrastructure development much more than it is). They mention at one point in the video that the city would be required to sell land to Brightline at a favourable rate if the area was put up for development - so the agreement is clearly focused on development potential. But why wouldn’t Brightline commit to having more frequent trains, or covering an equal share of the costs? The concerns raised by the commissioners seemed reasonable (assuming they haven’t misunderstood; as you point out it would be better to have a legal analysis). I might be missing some context, so keen to hear why you thought the 3-2 decision isn’t mysterious? Appreciate the thorough reply!!

[@LucidStew]

@@DanielSchramm Oh, I think the stripping of Brightline's 50% obligation and leaving the city on the hook was a genuine concern for the city and an understandable deal breaker. I'm a little worried for Stuart on the real estate end, though. Because here they have a private company proposing to do work to better develop their city center, and the commissioner's response to that is almost conspiratorial. Like, why WOULDN'T you want a company to come in and put TOD next to a train station and move less suitable businesses, like a lumber yard, from there to the former city dump site next to the airport?

[@DanielSchramm]

​@@LucidStew I did some more research today, and the 3 commissioners who voted to rescind the station lease in the 3-2 vote all ran on anti-development / anti-growth campaigns. Collins was elected in 2022, and that year appointed both Reed and Giobbi to the Stuart Board of Adjustment. Reed and Giobbi were then elected as commissioners only 2 months ago in August 2024. So while the concerns about station costs and lack of stops do seem valid, the underlying motivations seem to be more related to anti-development. Collins says at 5:07:05 “I would like to make sure there’s no transit oriented development”. Mayor Rich, who supports the station, has mentioned in interviews that he believes the cost of the station will be closer to "$13 million or even less." With the costs split 50:50 between City and County, that's only $6.5M for Stuart. He also makes it clear at 5:11:15 in that meeting that “Brightline did not reneg, the deal was renegotiated,” highlighting that Collin's rejection of the deal isn't due to Brightline changing terms on the City. If Stuart is able to negotiate an updated deal with Brightline which caps the cost to the city at a lower amount (the current maximum cost to the city is $30M) and increases the number of stops from 2 each way to something higher (Boca Raton, the only other limited stop station, gets 10 services of 16) then it will be harder for the anti-growth commissioners to push back on. But given the City of Stuart's anti-growth majority on the commission, I wouldn't be surprised if Brightline switches to Fort Pierce in order to maximise the development potential.

[@rickaylward8449]

Does anyone know what is holding up the new Acela trainsets? I thought they woulds be in use by now. ???

[@mattheworsini6876]

How could you do the Vizzini death scene and not do the laugh!? I want the full laugh in the next video. I subscribed! ;)

[@LucidStew]

A-hah-hah-hah-hah-hah-hah-hah-hah A-hah-hah-hah-hah-hah-hah-hah A-hah-hah-HAH

[@grantwareham946]

Is there any announcement for when the Avelia LIberty will actually begin revenue service?

[@LucidStew]

I have not heard or read anything new. The latest I've been exposed to is a rumor about early next year.

[@grantwareham946]

@@LucidStew yikes. And they have the nerve to be fighting Siemens building rolling stock for brightline West when they can't even get their own product into revenue service?! This is why we can't have nice things.

[@JasonTaylor-po5xc]

Any news about the Front Range High Speed Corridor? I know it is early days but it made the news a few months ago, at least in Colorado.

[@LucidStew]

There's isn't one. Front Range Passenger Rail is planned to be conventional passenger rail. They're talking about averaging something like 55mph.

[@JasonTaylor-po5xc]

@@LucidStew LOL, they were calling it high speed. Perhaps just marketing.

[@LucidStew]

@@JasonTaylor-po5xc Yeah, Brightline in Florida and the media coverage of that seemed to have blurred the definition of high speed rail somewhat. The media definition is something like slightly-faster-than-the-sluggish-passenger-rail-you're-used-to speed.

[@JustHitRecord_]

So theoretically…it’s going to take longer to build one bridge in Connecticut than it is to build Brightline West between LA-Vegas ….

[@LucidStew]

Possibly. And its still a moveable bridge! But that's ok, because that bridge will take 5 years less than the Susquehanna River Bridges, which are fixed span.

[@sdsd4139]

Not a boo-boo, but comparing Brightline to Pacific Surfliner comes with the asterisk that FY24 Surfliner was only partially operating thanks to Mother Nature's vengeance on the people of San Clemente

[@LucidStew]

An overall minimal impact. The failure of the Venture cars to show up in Florida in a timely manner is at least equal.

[@PlayinWithMahWii]

Stew, I'd love to see Metra coverage- last year Derwinski said the Bilevel cars from Alstom were on pace for a delivery in November 2024

[@ShluffyMonster]

As a jersey resident im concerned with how closing the tunnel stuff will affect new Jersey transit and commuters.

[@bikesfrench8524]

If I were you I would make a contract with Alstom the new French TGV will soon arrive in France its technology is incredible it consumes very little electricity😊

[@RailMan102_Productions]

Are all those circles at the top of the screen at 7:54 the amount of steps they take to ensure true high speed is a reality?

[@LucidStew]

That is characteristic prioritization. i.e. 'provide safe, consistent, reliable service' is the most important characteristic. 'allow for connection to airports' is the least important.

[@RailMan102_Productions]

@@LucidStew is it gonna take them two years to fully complete the process

[@arevolvingdoor3836]

I swear Alstom is just run by a legal team that wants to get more hours billed

[@mikeybpotts3915]

Hey Stu, Big Mike again. Maybe you’ve already broken these down before and I’ve simply missed it or forgotten…. you think you could do a quick video explaining some of the financial metrics you track in the NEC and CAHSR reports? YoY and MoM operating revenues and profits are simple enough, but risk-contingency drawdowns? I’m lost there. A lower value is good? Or bad? Thanks! Great job, as always!

[@LucidStew]

Risk contingencies are based on certainty and statistical probability. More uncertainty tends to produce a bigger spread in an estimate range. The risk contingency covers the spread. What they're saying is they think it will cost X, but since they don't have all of the input factors identified, they think it could cost as much as Y if things don't go their way. The risk contingency pot is Y-X. At the start of the last fiscal year the CAHSR Authority increased the total RC contribution to $6 billion. (if you look at the chart dark blue is the total allocated amount, light blue is what they have left). Now they only have $660 million left, so pretty not good, especially when they have months like July where 40% of expenditure is overage, AND 2 years left on the construction schedule for CPS 1-4. If they blow through the Risk Contingency, it basically means they went over budget. This is particularly bad for Merced-Bakersfield because they're $5-8 billion short already and they run past their predicted service range in 9 years, so they don't have a bunch of time to figure out where EVEN MORE money is going to come from. Any other questions, let me know!

[@parker49531]

Alstom is like a spoiled kid throwing a tantrum when they don't get their way

[@vehicles_n_stuff]

They gotta focus on making a product that works before demanding a chance to get a contract lol

[@ikea_wizard]

Nothing for PNW this month huh ? But to be honest the Pudget Sound is mainly focusing it's attention on the regional light rail extension.

[@LucidStew]

Next likely news out of the region will be a Phase 2 Corridor ID grant like Texas Central just got ($64M). There's an outside chance WSDOT will get some FSP-National money this year. I was thinking that might go to Texas Central, but not sure now. Chicago Hub is also compelling on that front, so there is competition. It can also go to non-HSR projects and there are plenty of those.

[@spencerjoplin2885]

15:23 agreed: winning 40% of the statewide vote consistently gets 0% of statewide offices.

[@LucidStew]

Also the legislature is about 80% Democrat

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

@@LucidStewand lest we forget it was two SoCal (pretty sure right-leaning) Democrats who tried to hold up the remaining Prop 1A funding, wanting it to instead go toward transit projects in their districts and have the IOS use diesels. Of course that funding did end up getting released to CAHSR, but not without the delay it caused and subsequent cost increase.

[@vxla]

17:55 you say our gold star total is 12 but 10 is showing 😂

[@LucidStew]

the large one has a 10 on it. there are two additional small ones. 10+2=12.

[@vxla]

@@LucidStew ah yes, makes sense. We will stand down!

[@NithinJune]

yo if you wanna take sponsors we would be cool with that

[@LucidStew]

I would too, but its not gonna be razors or NordVPN

[@NithinJune]

@@LucidStew cool cool. i respect that

[@NithinJune]

@@LucidStew loving the content! keep it up. (i send this to my mom who works at caltrans lmao)

[@rmdvto]

3:24 Las Vegas already built a new arena for their NHL team, is that one not NBA-compatible? Seems a bit wasteful when almost every city with both NHL+NBA has them sharing an arena 🤔

[@lalakerspro]

Its for sure NBA compatible, the WNBA plays there and preseason is held there

[@bikesfrench8524]

The brand new French TGV is the only one in the world that regenerates energy and consumes 30% less electricity very high technology😊

[@migjing23OCMCHS]

Never go in against a shummer when death is on the line!!!!!😅

[@milliedragon4418]

I have wondering about USA and Mexico for passenger rail and eventually I would like North America to be connect by high-speed rail.

[@LucidStew]

Monterrey seems easy enough. Most of the rest looks like a pretty big challenge.

[@seanschannel3264]

@@LucidStew Nogales by way of Phoenix and Tucson?

[@gabingston3430]

They better have good security, lest people smuggle in all sorts of stuff on those trains.

[@de-fault_de-fault]

The hypocrisy of Alstom saying Siemens can't do the exact thing they did only calls more attention to the fact Siemens will do something Alstom can't: deliver a train that works.

[@NithinJune]

noooo why didn’t sacramento get the contract lol

[@LucidStew]

cuz Schumer

[@NithinJune]

@@LucidStew 😭😭😭

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

@@NithinJune the Sacramento plant isn’t set up for HSR trains nor does it have the capacity right now. They’re already busy with the Charger locomotives and Venture cars. Siemens is building a new plant in NC to help take some of those orders. Plus the region of NY state Siemens chose already has a well established rail building knowledge base, including the Alstom and CAF plants there and several small manufacturers supplying those plants, in addition to an experienced workforce. So while politics almost certainly played a part, Siemens does have legit reasons to choose that area besides just politics.

[@NithinJune]

@@ChrisJones-gx7fc makes sense

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

@@NithinJune not to say that the Sacramento plant couldn’t at some future date expand to assemble HSR trains and/or components. Depending on how big HSR takes off here once the first couple routes are open, the demand could be there for multiple manufacturing plants around the country, including in Sacramento/California, especially considering those first two routes will be in California.

[@ross4]

“Texans Against High Speed Rail” should be named what it is: Airline, Oil, and Automotive Industries Against High Speed Rail.

[@LucidStew]

What's your source for that?

[@daleviker5884]

Can even one of the thousands who repeat this slogan answer me this: If the auto lobby is so powerful, why didn't it prevent the rise of the airline industry? Why didn't it prevent the market dominance of Asian-manufactured vehicles? Why hasn't it stopped the forced retooling for EVs? These are things that impact on the auto industry MASSIVELY and it hasn't been able to prevent them. By contrast, the CAHSR's own 2024 business plan anticipates that the HSR will cause a 3% reduction in car trips in California in about 20 years. Who in their right f***ing mind would think that that would even be on the radar of the auto industry compared with real issues?

[@wintermath3173]

What can political advocacy do to help all these projects finish faster? Or be cheaper?

[@tonyburzio4107]

Best bet? Stop Amtrak from getting involved. In anything.

[@LucidStew]

Depends where you live. However, lets say you're in Illinois. You have a good opportunity to weigh in early and build support. Lots of other places you're looking at an uphill battle, but maybe someplace like GA-SC-NC has a shot. Especially with the effects of the hurricane, stimulus is going to be popular. I don't really consider myself an advocate, but I voted for Prop 1A. I followed it, took an interest, and when I saw a wrong I spoke out. That's the best I can do, but I think I helped contribute a tiny bit to the public coming to terms with the reality of CAHSR rather than continuing to live in denial about it. That was my basic goal. Not exactly building a national system, but its something.

[@hartstukken]

Pete Buttigieg button: 01:13

[@carlsmith5545]

Brightline is serving people from California to Las Vegas to gamble. The United States needs something more significant than that. For example, the United States Atlantic bullet line from Boston Massachusetts to Jacksonville Florida, stopping in one city in each state it travels through. Now with this you could move millions of americans up and down the entire United States Eastern seaboard with great comfort and at speeds of up to 200 to 225 mph and not so much as a ripple on your martinis. This is something the mighty United States of America should of had decades ago. The nation that can put a man on the moon and yet can't achieve highspeed bullet train technology which is also, (fully electric).Highspeed bullet trains and maglev super train technology, the new american dream.

[@JasonTaylor-po5xc]

Well, considering the Interstate system got funded because of Cold War fears, not sure what it will take. US just flies its stuff between bases now.

[@lalakerspro]

maglevs arent real trains, plus brightline west is gonna be 200 mph. Boston to jacksonville is more suited for planes, most HSR routes around the world don go that far

[@barryrobbins7694]

13:52 Conservative estimate? Do you mean optimistic estimate?

[@LucidStew]

No. I meant what I said.

[@barryrobbins7694]

How is $130 million estimating on the side of cation, if the actual cost will require $160 million?

[@LucidStew]

@@barryrobbins7694 Oh, I see what you're saying. We're looking at it from two different perspectives. I'm saying their means of determining how much it will cost is more conservative. I basically pulled 2054 out of a hat for that $160B figure. But I see what you're saying in terms of absolute dollars.

[@AaronSmith-sx4ez]

These "buy American" requirements are just madness. Do other industries have to put up with this nonsense? Do road construction companies have to use all American equipment? It's a miracle for any domestic rail initiative to be built. Forcing rail to be a jobs program really hurts its financial viability.

[@LucidStew]

It's interesting because the things in the waiver are about the only foreign components there are. The vast, vast majority of components and material will be domestic. The passenger car bodies are the big thing because the aluminum casting and welding technology doesn't exist in the United States. However, if you look at the original Amtrak waiver that turned into the Avelia Libertys, American industry was interested in adopting the technology, but was denied because that would cause an 18-24 month delay. That was 10 years ago. XD

[@Liggie55821]

​@@LucidStewI think Buy American was Biden trying to hold on to the union / working class vote, which was showing signs of drifting to Trump and the Republicans. In retrospect there should've been waivers for projects where we're clearly not a world leader in, like HSR (maybe solar panels too? I'm not sure), but that's the hand we have to play for now

[@goarmysleepinthemud.]

If trump is in the White House next year the USA can kiss highspeed rail goodbye.

[@gabingston3430]

Brightline happened in Florida under DeSantis.

[@LucidStew]

Trump said he likes high speed rail. He said its the best, greatest ever. Fan-tas-tic.

[@thatoneotherotherguy]

I don't think anything stops Brightline West at this point. If Trump somehow got back in, he can't revoke the $3B that was already granted.

[@vehicles_n_stuff]

@@gabingston3430no, most of Brightline’s development happened under Rick Scott. And that only happened because his family had financial interests in the company. And the alternative was an actual high speed rail system.

[@daleviker5884]

The German train operator Deutsche Bahn has just announced (August 2024) record losses and 30,000 job cuts. Naturally that has not been mentioned on these sites, but taxpayers should be hoping that an adult is elected who runs more of an eye over these projects than "I went to Japan and caught a train so we should have the same."

[@bloxynews8302]

Alstom are pathetic. They are just jealous of the high market share of Siemens and their high-quality trains that aren't delayed by years! What an embarrassing and petty way for a company to act. Alstom has annoyed a lot of people in the UK also by introducing a high-floor train on a network of otherwise low-floor trains (Greater Anglia), making what could've been a 100% level boarding network into one where the godamn COMMUTER trains require a ramp, sometimes at unstaffed stations and the regional trains have level boarding. Their rolling stock isn't great in terms of quality either. Not to mention their years late crappy high floor commuter trains on Southwestern Railway. What a joke of a company.

[@coastard]

WE LOST A GOLD STAR. TRAIN NERDS LOCK THE FUCK IN.

[@LucidStew]

8 more months and I have the lead.... :>

[@MrOlgrumpy]

If you expect anyone to hear your opening dialogue,turn down the muzak .

[@LucidStew]

no

[@Matt-jq7zw]

alg

[@gumbyshrimp2606]

15:25 the reason there are so few Republicans in California comes down to demographics. California was 3% Hispanic in 1950 and fielded electoral juggernauts like Nixon and Reagan. After the 1960’s immigration act and 1980’s amnesty bill however, the demographics changed to >40% Hispanic (and more than the white population). California is effectively a one party state now because the people who live there are completely different than just 40 years ago.

[@LucidStew]

I don't think its that simple. I think at least some of it has to do with the environmental movement, importation of tech workers, and also San Francisco being a center for gay rights. Demographics have changed since the 50s, but a LOT of things have changed. The state population has quadrupled. However, in that space, Republicans have had 70 years to make their case. If they'd done a great job, I have to think they'd be more than a small minority.

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

⁠@@LucidStewyou go outside of the Bay Area and LA though and it’s mostly Republican (which is pretty typical for the country, since very generally urban areas tend to be blue and rural areas red). It’s just the population bases are so huge in those two mega-regions that they make the state vote blue, and of course the large CV cities like Fresno can have some blue, and major urban areas have some red. Also the way things are going for the GOP right now, more primarily younger voters are voting blue.

[@Pindar1215]

In Baltimore even the trains are racist. Amazing!

[@JoyClinton-i8g]

A reminder that there is already Amtrak service between Merced and Bakersfield. If CAHSR starts-up trying to charge more for their (faster) service between the two cities, its ridership may be countable on single person fingers and toes.

[@LucidStew]

SJJPA and CAHSR have an agreement. Once CAHSR is running, San Joaquins will only run north of Merced. It's also quite probable that SJJPA will end up operating CAHSR while it is only the Central Valley segment.

[@seanschannel3264]

What Lucid Stew said below about the San Joaquins being truncated at Merced. They'll be able to run a lot more trains faster this way with a short cross-platform transfer at Merced to points north (e.g., Sacramento). Also, they're thinking about extending the San Joaquins to Chico potentially.

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

@@LucidStewSJJPA will be the interim service provider for the IOS, and DB ECO North America the early train operator. That would help explain why the San Joaquins will be truncated south of Merced (why pay to run two parallel services of which one will be much faster and can run more frequently). SJJPA will pay an annual lease fee to CAHSR for use of the tracks and equipment. While ticket prices won’t be announced until closer to the start of service in 2030-33 (as things stand leaning more toward 2033), it’s probable they’ll be comparable to current San Joaquin fares (adjusted for inflation of course).

[@alhollywood6486]

You keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

[@LucidStew]

what word?

[@alhollywood6486]

@@LucidStew sorry, it was a second hand princess bride reference that apparently got lost in translation. However, was glad to see a Rentals drop!

[@teresakarr8328]

WTF

[@nickbottari4794]

$130B for phase 1 actually made me laugh

[@LucidStew]

Because its so unbelievably cheap?!

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

@@LucidStewit’s worth comparing that to what the equivalent freeway and airport expansions to meet the same demand/capacity would be, and to weigh the long term benefits of continuing to expand freeways and airports vs keep building HSR.

[@-Katastrophe]

To be fair, gas in california is well overpriced. Just like their real estate, groceries, movies that often flop, the list goes on.

[@LucidStew]

$100 rebate checks is a silly idea on its face. Beyond that the average driver probably spends over $2000 a year on gas, so its also a meaningless gesture.

[@sdsd4139]

CA Republicans will be more successful campaigning on public safety & homelessness, than on transportation where they don't really have credibility

[@ChrisJones-gx7fc]

If you think California is expensive, try living in Hawaii.

[@ecka1014]

Come on he is a republican in California his constitutis are rural people who have to drive and get fd by state gas taxes. He is doing his job to get the relief. This why the state needs to be split up

[@LucidStew]

Yeah, it's red meat. We have big problems that need addressing instead of playing around with gimmicks.

[@how_to_hallagon1]

What's petty about wanting trains manufactured in the United States?

[@LucidStew]

Upon further review I've concluded it wasn't petty as the move seems more calculated toward securing a contract with California High Speed Rail. But you have to consider that Alstom is also a foreign firm, so the profits exit the country, ultimately. Also, every Siemens HSR trainset for the U.S. market would be made in the U.S. beyond the first 2.

[@liamkelley6252]

LMAO "texans against hsr" definitely not funded by any large corporation

[@robertwalsh1724]

Thanks!

[@LucidStew]

Thank you! Vegas trip #4 accomplished.

[@adambuesser6264]

Thanks!

[@LucidStew]

Thank you! We are now working on the 5th Vegas trip once they start. We might have to come up with something special to do with the extra funds.

[@owenmorris5441]

Thanks!

[@LucidStew]

Thank you. I've had lots of Superthanks on this one. I think we're about to summer of next year at this point. I'll have to think up some other trips, I think.

[@migjing23OCMCHS]

Thanks!

[@LucidStew]

Thank you. Getting near halfway through next year at this point. This is working out well, but I believe it will end up funding other, as yet unknown trips as well.

[@migjing23OCMCHS]

@@LucidStew make the final trip between rancho and las vegas riding inside the HSR coach seat!

[@LucidStew]

@@migjing23OCMCHS Oh, I have something truly tremendous planned if the channel can get to 100,000 subs by the time they open.

[@shawng8613]

Thanks!

[@LucidStew]

Thank you! Since I covered it in this video, and I'll be in the neighborhood, and Brightline West trips are pretty well covered for the first half of next year, some of this will start rolling into a High Desert Corridor video as well. It will be a top quality affair. Dashcam footage, drone footage, renders.

[@christerman]

Thanks!

[@LucidStew]

Thank you! We have 4 trips to Vegas secured, and are also starting funding on a side trip to cover the High Desert Corridor.