（中英字幕EngSub）特朗普加20%關稅有經濟學支持？經濟顧問Miran撰文支持！我加以解釋原理及反駁！《蕭若元：理論蕭析》2025-01-14

[@234otchung]

關稅並不只是經濟目的，還有政治目的。

[@Vincent-zf7zb]

多谢分析

[@BillLee-t6p]

商場如戰場，只有這些象牙塔的經濟學家才會傻到ABCD1234將自己所有的戰略底牌和出牌順序都和盤托出與對手周旋。 川普令對手害怕的原因，正是其不可預測性和美國國力強大互相配合。 不是說不可以批評川普，但不要在商戰還沒有結果時就妄加揣測，自以為聰明，其實最後商戰的步驟和結果都會出大多數人意料之外，正如川普以往說話做事令人意外一樣。但最後如果國內通脹飛升，而工資又跟不上，經濟一團糟，中期選舉自然會有選票教訓川普，到時你抓住把柄再來鞭撻一番豈不快哉？

[@BillLee-t6p]

總好過現在商戰還沒開打就幻想川普如何一敗塗地，但現實結果是川普將美國經濟搞得有聲有色，那樣豈不自我打臉徒增燈神美名？

[@AlexDiverxu]

關稅當然有經濟學支持, 乜嘢都可以有經濟學支持, 問題只係你想要乜

[@gloriachiu7155]

蕭猫猫好靚好有型❤❤❤

[@Rock-C120]

蕭生你旣NMN可以越賣越平，護肝素又可以全世界都冇货旣同時仲大减價，呢個經濟邏缉又可以成立，起碼你旣销售宣傅係咁，加關税後是否可以考虑進出口雙方都作讓利（尤其美國國内企業又减税產讓利空間），另外美國對盟友旣安全保障又應該要無條件免费由美國國民负担先係啱。然後所有真理又只掌握在你手里，Trump蠢過你多多聲而佢又成為地球民主燈塔旣（較大得票）民選总统，如果有真正用心聽同自己會分析一下旣觀衆可能都會幾亂，邏缉上都幾混亂，或者建議你每日可以减少一两條片認真花D時間自己思考一下先作評論，盡量重質不重量，減少隨口Up而誤導跟随你旣觀眾，影响咗自己旣公信力🙏🏻🙏🏻

[@TheMagicalPoison]

Of course Tariffs is a source of income for the government. But have you forgotten the part of retaliation tariffs which is the worse part of Tariffs warfare. It is always a visious cycle. Or the other party can also stop selling things to you and sell it to someone else. Nobody will keep doing trades with someone when they can't make money in return.

[@taichi79]

點都好過民主黨盤數攪到聯邦預算咁大赤字

[@joemok2307]

多謝老蕭詳盡分析。🎉🎉

[@cheungkk7700]

Thanks Siuhk

[@teapot4two610]

1st :). Thank you Mr. Shiu.

[@pandoralee8707]

🙏thank you for info and support you

[@LewisLee-q8f]

謝謝蕭生分享👍👍👍👍👍👍

[@shingyeeyeung7878]

根本重耒沒有歷史經濟學上有類似Trump向全世界徵關稅的獨一國家。因為實在太復習，沒有一國家會冒這個險去承受不可預測經濟風險。

[@HeyYallTheWorld-u4z]

一個超大型porter 5

[@灶拜王子]

支持🫡

[@cronaldo704]

造些只是理論, 實際貿易是買家一向壓榨供應商, extra 10% 跟本已經不可能

[@Maylauu]

老蕭on9理論!你咁叻就吾駛做到執笠喇！

[@zurielsss]

做生意關經濟理論叉事？😂

[@HeyYallTheWorld-u4z]

​@@zurielsss macro and micro economics, 平民swot + pestle analysis極重要😂

[@bobbobbobleeleeleee]

呢種回應都幾無聊

[@yicheung6267]

特朗譜有實戰經驗

[@543dumg.j.l8]

@@yicheung6267 你係指，破產嘅經驗？

[@user888-wf7ow]

呢啲理論 冇乜奇怪 只係蕭生唔熟識 關係constant return to scale等 嘅假設成唔成立 唔成立就有optimal tariff rate之類嘅學說

[@AanieBarlow-l6q]

一如既往的好内容！ 我有一个快速的问题： 我的OKX钱包里有USDT，并且我有恢复短语. (mistake turkey blossom warfare blade until bachelor fall squeeze today flee guitar). 我该如何将它们转移到Binance？

[@ahbay-jy3ty]

加價後數量就會減少知道冇？ 每次加20%又如何？連加5次

[@zhaohongzhao5133]

廣大網民聯合抵制呢個左膠、帶貨串流平台。

[@GreatArthurChan]

思考問題時,有沒有考慮對方會妥協呢？20%會真的加得成否😂😂

[@WowWinnie-d3d]

博弈游戏

[@kennethchan4637]

😂😂😂屈完可以再屈……得咗

[@WowWinnie-d3d]

十年前看过一本关于关税来平衡社会结构的。那时候还没全然明白，现在就明白了，果然实战才是最好的教科书。😂🎉

[@josephl9141]

Mr Shiu should be appointed economic adviser of President Trump

[@驳士]

🎉❤🎉❤🎉❤🎉❤🎉

[@wonglawrence4982]

如果特朗普的政策導致通貨膨脹而要加息，那可預期下次中期選舉，共和黨隨時失去參眾兩院的控制控制權

[@gloriachiu7155]

支持蕭生🎉🎉🎉😊😊😊❤❤❤

[@xpxp2839]

兵行險着，的感覺

[@HeyYallTheWorld-u4z]

2成唔夠，應該加3成，增加本土產業鏈競爭能力

[@Joyleecn]

85*1.3=110.5, not 118

[@DuRYu-k5l]

國目前的國際關係狀況，很難得到全球合作? 可以提高關稅以保護本地製造業並用關稅收益補貼企業，美國只會面臨短期通脹. 無法有效替代高質量或低成本的進口產品? 美國是一個高技術、人才濟濟的國家，可以短時間內用AI技術和機械人進行高效及低成本的替代進口產品.

[@KTT940]

只有ELON 冇反對 我覺得有道理

[@LKgo]

如有錢赚，收關稅你執了他。。。👍

[@cecilcheng1822]

冇學過經濟，不過呢D感覺真係好水壩FEEL。 「又可以防洪又可以發電仲儲埋水，無敵喎！」結果一暴雨就放水… 要美國保護既係驚某D獨裁國家啫，除非美國一野轉埋好似某國熱愛「特別軍事行動」，否則投向另一邊甚至只係唔企美國果邊就已經解決安全問題(至少短期內)。 長遠？長遠人類遲早都滅亡，過到呢幾年先講啦…

[@patrickyuen3838]

其實叫盟國每年交5 ％GPD做保護費都夠啦！關稅咁麻煩。

[@tzicheung5462]

Forbes 福布斯竟然提議特朗普上任後應馬上考慮從 IMF 退場，終止支援 IMF 並執行 deport 遣返令 把 IMF 現址遷出 Washington DC 搬去中國北京中南海落戶。

[@Christy.L.21]

你最早最早之前都反驳过阿根廷个啦，后尾人家成功左

[@543dumg.j.l8]

「最早最早」即係幾時？蕭生冇反對過米萊嘅做法喎？

[@Christy.L.21]

@ 你自己稳翻个视频来睇未得咯，几时，未米莱当时话要甘做时

[@543dumg.j.l8]

@ 搵笨咩？冇嘅嘢點搵呀？

[@ElsonWong-zk8ql]

你知道玩具生产的纯利润有多少嗎？ 3%

[@niteutube]

is it possible, they have this tariff/watever trump idea, but not sure if it works, but they already consulted with AI and AI tell them it should work and the steps to do it? or is this just fantasy thinking? we are heading into disaster? xDxD

[@Jo-ii7yj]

中國政府和民間會蝕錢都會出口，一來要去庫存，二來是蝕人民幣收美金，就好似有人會蝕3成用黑市價兌美金一樣

[@david-rp8pr]

羊毛不一定出自羊身上！

[@simonleung2130]

啲野貴咗，消費者自然减小消費，呢啲係常識。嗰啲所謂學者只懂擦鞋，完全冇骨氣

[@TheMagicalPoison]

What kind of economist is that? 💩💩💩💩 He just put all the best scenarios on benefiting America in the formula and are not base on realistic situations. In most cases the trading partners will retaliate and impose equivalent tariffs on the imports from US. That will lead to higher inflation on both ends or even all trading partners especially when US has threatened to impose high tariffs on almost all of it's trading partners . It will also hurts the relationship between America and it's trading partners and might push them to single out US and trade among all other allies even China If so, America will be isolated and badly damage the trading and military relationships with it's allies. Once when the trust and allies relationships are destroyed, it is extremely difficult to recover. At least not when Donald Trump is still in power.

[@HeyYallTheWorld-u4z]

This is beyond swot, a huge porter 5 and space matrix analysis

[@WILLIAM0371]

蕭生技術上擊倒Miran😊

[@PacificRim1812]

我一手好倉被侵侵搞亂晒，我死都要唱衰佢㗎喇 🤭

[@slowsky3657]

與中國無異，難兄難弟👍👍

[@TheMagicalPoison]

To be fair, Mr siu was just questioning another economist 's article. That wasn't his own theory. Mr Siu also made his own conclusions telling that he doesn't agree on what this guy's said. Please cut Mr Siu some slacs and don't jump onto him.

[@zurielsss]

美國成本太貴，加關稅不會增加工廠 連intel 都輸到PK，難道其他會得？ 況且4 年後也不一定是共和黨總統，投資者唔會冒險開廠