Ranking Option Strategies Based On Risk | Options crash Course 2024

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[@0DTE]

The "riskless trade" would start out with a WHOLE LOTTA RISK! Particularly if the market decided to drop. No different than putting on a naked Put. Your strategy is HOPING for a Goldilocks scenario in order to make it riskless. Plus, the margin required would be enormous, and this strategy wouldn't be viable on any large-cap stock or index; the margin and buying power required would be through the roof.

[@kesor6]

He didn't really say it was riskless, he just said it was free. Free + huge risk trade that will get you bankrupt if you are not lucky.

[@jschultzf3]

Correct - there is risk at trade entry, as I explained in the video. Sadly, we can't just sell risk-free strategies all day long from the start :) And if you have a cash-secured account, then yes, the margin is significant, but if you have a standard margin account, the margins are a fraction of what is required in a cash-secured account.

[@jschultzf3]

@@kesor6 lol this is the exact point I was making in the beginning of the video. Options don't have to be any riskier than long stock and can easily be LESS RISKY when sized is matched. So if avoiding bankruptcy is your goal, you'll be glad you used options because you'll stay solvent longer than you would with stock.

[@RomilCPatel]

The lowest risk is actually a box spread on European options. These box spreads are the equal to the risk free rate of return. So a 3-month box spread has the same return as a 3-month t-bill, and both come with zero risk.

[@axelmuller5040]

Can you share some details?

[@RomilCPatel]

​@@axelmuller5040 On SPX for example you can buy a 4000 call and sell a 5000 call; then buy a 5000 put and sell a 4000 put. This is essentially two debit spreads that cancel each other out, hence why it's called a long box spread. The opposite with two credit spreads is a short box spread. You have cancelled out all of your Greeks other than Rho. So the interest rate differential between calls and puts is what you are left with. That interest rate differential is equal to the rate on treasuries. So a long box spread one year to expiration should be roughly equal to a one-year t-bill in the amount it makes you. In a short box spread you can borrow from the market at the equivalent duration treasury interest rate. Riskless strategies like box spreads are essentially ways to lend into the market for a risk-free interest rate. And vice versa for borrowing. Also, these strategies should only be done on European options, so none of the legs get assigned early.

[@RomilCPatel]

​@@axelmuller5040 On SPX for example you can buy a 4000 call and sell a 5000 call; then buy a 5000 put and sell a 4000 put. This is essentially two debit spreads that cancel each other out, hence why it's called a long box spread. The opposite with two credit spreads is a short box spread. You have cancelled out all of your Greeks other than Rho. So the interest rate differential between calls and puts is what you are left with. That interest rate differential is equal to the rate on treasuries. So a long box spread one year to expiration should be roughly equal to a one-year t-bill in the amount it makes you. In a short box spread you can borrow from the market at the equivalent duration treasury interest rate. Riskless strategies like box spreads are essentially ways to lend into the market for a risk-free interest rate. And vice versa for borrowing. Also, these strategies should only be done on European options, so none of the legs get assigned early.

[@alexhere1]

The key word here is “European”, which removes early assignment risk for ITM legs. The price will be the width of the spread at all times, and you might lose few cents on the market making bid/ask spread. This is borrowing money, and you better be able to put it back by the expiration date.

[@RomilCPatel]

@@axelmuller5040 ​ On SPX for example you can buy a 4000 call and sell a 5000 call; then buy a 5000 put and sell a 4000 put. This is essentially two debit spreads that cancel each other out, hence why it's called a long box spread. The opposite with two credit spreads is a short box spread. You have cancelled out all of your Greeks other than Rho. So the interest rate differential between calls and puts is what you are left with. That interest rate differential is equal to the rate on treasuries. So a long box spread one year to expiration should be roughly equal to a one-year t-bill in the amount it makes you. In a short box spread you can borrow from the market at the equivalent duration treasury interest rate. Riskless strategies like box spreads are essentially ways to lend into the market for a risk-free interest rate. And vice versa for borrowing. Also, these strategies should only be done on European options, so none of the legs get assigned early.

[@freddonson5436]

Dr. Jim, you're the best, got so much out of this one

[@hamusyaigh3317]

Such a good options trading teacher. Thank you.

[@jschultzf3]

Preciate you, thank you!

[@johnmoser1162]

Sorry Dr Jim ... I really appreciate what you do. Buut ... obviously there is no simple recipe to make money. And therefore this is pretty much hot air. You need to have an EDGE - and that is not explained ... 🙂 ... and if you had the edge to make "millions" then why should you tell us ... for FREE ?!

[@jschultzf3]

Totally agree - maybe I'm just that nice of a guy ;)

[@johnmoser1162]

@@jschultzf3 I mean seriously - we can apply Einstein's theory of special relativity to options trading. But isn't the "edge" as "simple" as to know if the price goes up, down or stays at the same level ? Why are we not investing a lot lot more time into these topics ?

[@alessbrasil25]

I’ve been buying lowers deltas that fit my account and I can deal with taking losses or letting it run for 40%+ gainers

[@jschultzf3]

So you're just buying naked premium?

[@SvenskJim222]

I really enjoyed the free butterfly segment. I think that’s what’s missing from many of the standard explanations of trading.

[@user-bj9up7te2b]

I LOVE all your classes! Please keep posting great content. Thank you so much!

[@davidgallimore9656]

Yo Yo Yo Dr Jimmbo, I thought you were going to tell us about the SPX Box trade. No risk and earn an interest like rate of return (legally capital gains). SPX cash settled, euro style contracts, no dividend kind of thing.

[@user-kv9il9wl9y]

that's a great insight essentially leaving the wing open to act on any movement in the open direction. However it's not free, in the sense you would need (depending on the share prices) around 50k in collateral just for that one play.

[@jschultzf3]

$50k margin only if you're cash-secured...in a margin account it's a fraction of that.

[@seanbutler9429]

And if the stock goes down, you are on the hook for one of the short puts with no protection.

[@alexdasliebe5391]

Thanks so much, Tasty Live. Great informative content.

[@jschultzf3]

Awesome - thanks for watching!

[@alexdasliebe5391]

⁠Quick question,@@jschultzf3, isn’t setting up the “free butterfly” somewhat directional? How would I pick which wing to keep?

[@tchitchikov]

Great video - thank you Dr. Jim and TastyLive

[@jschultzf3]

You got it - thanks for watching!

[@davehansen2494]

Hello, in the AMZN example, you would still own the stock, but take the loss on the put...so to own the stock is better ?

[@wwrussell180]

Dr. Jim, while waiting for the opportunity to convert the ratio spread into a “free” butterfly, are you not exposed to tremendous downside risk in the interim? Seems very risky to me. Please explain what I might be missing.

[@jschultzf3]

You are exposed to undefined-risk on the downside, correct...just like a short put is exposed to the downside. As I explained when setting up the strategy, sadly, we can't put risk-free trades on at entry...that would mean there would never be any reason to ever do anything else. But having this option in your back pocket to take risk off the table, and convert trades to risk-free is a nice tool to have.

[@wwrussell180]

@@jschultzf3 thanks for the quick reply.

[@AffectionateArcticFox-ik8xo]

This is a very good observation.

[@nationalnotes]

Big if is if the market moves in your direction and basically breaking even on the trade. I don’t see the advantage vs selling a put (also a bullish strategy) and getting much better premium. Yes you can get assigned…but if you did your homework - read TA - you can always wheel out of it.

[@jschultzf3]

I don't disagree that a short put might be a better strategy. I probably use short puts more than ratio spreads myself...but having the ratio into risk-free butterfly in your back pocket for special circumstances is a nice tool to have.

[@richbalkissoon5322]

are there any videos about combining broken wing butterflys with calendar spreads?

[@msingh1403]

Very good comprehensive series! Thank you!

[@jschultzf3]

Thanks so much for watching!

[@koyomo2910]

Genius Dr. Jim. Thank you for the video. Showing it on the platform was Genius Genius.

[@rhondaw2753]

LOVE your style! Thank you!

[@joel3792]

For the Butterfly Strategy, it is NOT risk free if the market moves against you, causing that last leg to actually increase in price. The term should be "Locking in Profits" instead. I was vested in this video simply because i wondered what other risk free strategies outside of Collars exist.

[@michaelhaidee]

I have lost more on single stocks and etfs outright than I ever have with options, LoL. I have made some decent money on Synthetics with collars.

[@jschultzf3]

My man!

[@traveling-around]

Thanks good information. Do I now what good type trend for using this strategy pal? Cheer.

[@jschultzf3]

Typically a Put Ratio Spread is best used when you want positive deltas in your account, since the deltas are positive at trade entry. They do change over time and become negative deltas, though, so it may not be the best fit for everybody.

[@notseekingconverts]

When I roll a short option, my thinking is that I simply reset my premium and any gain beyond commissions is still a net gain. Am I wrong?

[@jschultzf3]

Well the added premium does help with break-even points and overall credit collected, but it's not necessarily a net gain. The current value of the position has to be below what you've collected for that to be true.

[@sushzkruz]

Hi Dr Jim, How much money you made last year & what was your account size? You guyz (you, Batisaz, Liz Dally) never disclose about your P&L.. How do we know your success rate?

[@vasudevaramachandra2704]

For the butterfly scenario, can we not use a GTC limit order for the last wing to buy to open to make it a free butterfly ?

[@stebo2984]

These courses are pure gold 🥇

[@jonathansims486]

Dr. Jim, is it possible to have a stop loss order on the original ratio spread at whatever the break even point is? So either stock price drops and we exit the ratio spread as soon as P/L = $0 or stock stays same/rises and we wait to put the free Butterfly on?

[@MTtroutfisher406]

Great explanation! Thank you!

[@jschultzf3]

Really glad it helped so much - thanks for watching!

[@ehk8029]

How can the impact on margin be managed? By not having protection, the broker will require a greater margin to open the position

[@YIWOTY]

What is the name of this ratio spread to potential risk-free butterfly trade strategy?

[@ThatTURK1]

At 14:20 you said you will have a discussion for amount of gains.When do you think you will post a video about that?

[@0DTE]

I would also note that all your high-probability trades, which you equate with low risk, are extremely risky, as the maximum loss is multiple times the expected profit. If the market moves against you, your position will be in peril. Particularly since you are expecting these positions to expire.

[@johnmoser1162]

So do you have a better example ? [edit: it's all math - the lower the risk the lower the profit and the higher the total loss. But again - it's all calculated ...]

[@0DTE]

Your are incorrectly conflating risk with win rate. High win rate has small profitspotentially high risk. Low win rate has potentially big profits and small risk.

[@johnmoser1162]

​@@0DTE Risk is related to win rate. So simple. ... oh and you are the guy with the "batman" strategy. Yep ... another failure.

[@roberttarrant7646]

I find this thread a distraction. Risk and management of that risk contains several important elements. By "all" high probability trades I presume you mean "all" defined risk strategies ? Where by definition, the risk in the trade is the difference between the Net Credit collected and the width of the credit spread. Often the risk to loss in the trade is much larger than the potential reward, say risk 2 to make 1. In my experience, repairing such a trade gone wrong (i.e. getting run over) requires a good bit of tactical trading skill. Tasty maintains an extensive video library on trade management and refers to these tactics as Tasty mechanics, and to the risk to loss in the trade (I think) you are referring to as the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). There is so much jargon in the trading business I thought I might include this mini-glossary with a view to help others understand this subject of risk better. Additionally as a practical matter, trading defined risk strategies require significant trading capital, and approx. 3x the CVaR to repair a trade. On the 0dte " batman" trade mentioned here, there is a completely different set of tactics which I have not studied because I do not qualify for trading this strategy properly within the rules for pattern day trading and thus I am limited to paper trading this completely different strategy. My only advice is to understand risk management as it relates to your particular strategy before putting your hard earned dollars at risk. Hope this helps everyone.

[@user-fj3it6qp1l]

What is the probability of that "IF"?

[@WiCapitalco]

Just collar everything

[@dmitrikristensson967]

Very interesting! Thank you!

[@jschultzf3]

You got it - thanks for watching!

[@elynno9911]

As always appreciate your time n effort

[@LMF-ct4lt]

What is the advantage of selling covered calls at 47 days to exp compared to 7 dte? You are not receiving more premium per week. Is it true that time works for you when you buy options and works against you when you sell options?

[@RomilCPatel]

Gamma risk

[@Tary88]

Backwards selling options time works for you. Buying options time works against you.

[@jschultzf3]

@@Tary88 This is the way

[@MP2001TX]

Terrific options education! Thank you Dr. JS

[@jschultzf3]

Preciate you!

[@talalztube]

This is tricky for newbies to follow for covered calls he casually said “if you have 100 shares of msft” instead of saying you need to have a min of 100 shares of the stocks to trade covered calls

[@SM-tk7qx]

Enter the position and it goes down…?

[@jschultzf3]

That's where you risk is - just like a naked short put.

[@charlies8282]

Simply the best

[@jschultzf3]

Preciate you!

[@DavidKoontz]

Great explanation on big picture risk. Q: on the free butterfly trade. Is there a way to use the GTC order for the lower wing? What am I missing?

[@kesor6]

You are missing the bit where the price of the underlying goes lower before you get the chance to buy that leg. Should that happen, and the price goes lower by a lot, your short leg has the potential for a huge amount of loss that you need to take out of pocket.

[@jschultzf3]

Yes, you could certainly do that...set a GTC for that missing wing, to create the risk-free butterfly if/when the market allows for it.

[@jschultzf3]

@@kesor6 yes, you have the same risk profile at the beginning of this strategy that you would have on a naked short put, which again, if sized the same is less than actual long stock itself. So any losses you might incur from the stock falling are actually less than what you would have to absorb on a long stock position.

[@toniasabatini4174]

@@kesor6 LOL - True.

[@SM-tk7qx]

Can someone explain what the risk would look like if you did an atm iron butterfly along with an otm bought iron condor?

[@bluesky5587]

Too complicated

[@jschultzf3]

@@bluesky5587 I second this.

[@TheLKStar]

I heard that "free fly" strategy before, it's such nonsense. You're paying what you could've sold. Imagine you're a day trader and said you had no risk when adding to a winning position if your stop was higher than the start... no, you're risking your current profit. Maybe people do this for clicks, but these "marketing" nonsensical strategies only serve to confuse newbies.

[@Lil_mar00]

Brilliant!

[@dawid.niestroj6045]

Have a 70 Dollar Spread go against me in one night to a 1200 dollar ..... So pls the are so many dangers!!!!

[@dgaz3057]

and here comes the sales pitch

[@pelefuentes1988]

LG!!! Dr Jim

[@kesor6]

So a naked put, a prayer, and a put spread. Better hope the gods of luck hear your prayer, or your “free” trade is going to put you in bankruptcy court.

[@jschultzf3]

Provably less risky than long stock

[@gutemaguutuu5117]

at 34:30 free butterfly 🦋 💜 ♥

[@abrahamgomez653]

Options have limited risk. If you go naked then that changes everything 😂

[@jschultzf3]

And by changes everything you obviously mean has a higher probability of success than long stock along with less risk when matched for size ;)

[@abrahamgomez653]

@@jschultzf3 Only if there is manipulation. Going long on a direct option has very limited risk. You might break even but it's simply insurance. People that go short are gamblers and I don't gamble.

[@eliefeinstein6182]

Please cut it out with the BS titles.

[@chillin363]

May I suggest that you eep the passionate bleeding boil out of the mix. It confuses the issue. imo I do not even want to listen to the rest now.

[@user-yl6ql9st5k]

Ugh...another misleading thumbnail "Options aren't risky"...come on... seriously?

[@thegoodoneist]

Total nonsense about free butterfly. You only assumed market up, never considered market down.