Win up to 95% Of Trades With This 0DTE Strategy | Options Back Test

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Learn about selling 0DTE SPX strangles in a Tasty Live video. The hosts discuss the strategy's success but point out buying power regulations make it impractical for most traders. They suggest using far out-of-the-money long wings to create strangle-like iron condors for lower cost and higher potential profit. Data from a study shows success rates of different strategies like selling straddles and out-of-the-money strangles. Despite recent success, future outcomes are uncertain. Hosts advise defining risk by purchasing long wings to decrease buying power needs and limit losses.
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[@user-sr6iz3ly4v]

Thank you for the strategy, it is very helpful for beginners

[@mad0316]

Thank you.👍 When the market does change course and the current trend does not continue, what changes would be advisable for trading the O DTE SPX to maintain the profitability of the past year?

[@wfranca76]

thank you very much!!! I just checked that the VIX1D has a daily pattern that should be used as part of the studies vs gamma and Theta. I guest that correlating those three greeks would bring best enter and exit time vs CVaR. Could you help us promoting this analyze?

[@myrealtv7830]

Can you show us an example trade please

[@mcop1]

Best info here is that from open to close the market has moved less than 2% - 94.3% of the time & less than 5% - 99.6% of the time. Given that info, I wonder if Iron Flies put on at open with 25 wide wings would be the better play, because you get a better win loss ratio than Iron Condors .....both taking profit @ 25% ?

[@insurancecasino5790]

Still a risk if you don't have some practice. IMO

[@DaDewBoy-gy9ll]

5:53, nice pull brother

[@elvd7437]

What does CVaR stands for or mean? Anyone can provide a helpful response to my question. Thank you all.

[@mariojahn8219]

Why not just showing a real live example on how to setup a trade?

[@alanrainey5898]

yes, at least show the strikes. its hard to follow via the video as to how this is set up with the insurance strikes.

[@MrFedemoral]

Would love to see this in SPY for smaller accounts

[@neuvocastezero1838]

Thanks, but your statistics tracked the performance on percentage, while the strikes are measured in dollar OTM. Shouldn't we be using delta or %OTM instead, especially since there's been so much growth in the indexes over the past year?

[@ahmedrehim8953]

Unlike 30 or 45DTE, Delta has less weight in 0DTE I believe

[@masonite1973]

exactly

[@rahulnanavati4864]

Everyone are running to find a best strategies which doesn't give any losses, which is impossible. The truth is that the strategy works only 10/20% while your trading phycology works or impact 90/80% and nobody or very less are working on it or able to reveal it.

[@ObsidianFutures]

I dig it

[@AgSus-xq8rz]

Thank you

[@Eqnotalent]

I don’t get when they say 10 or 30 OTM. Are they doing a 20 or 40 wide iron condor or they are selling ATM and buy 10 or 30 wide wing then become a butterfly.

[@zadokmotorfreight2423]

I believe they're selling 10 -30 out of the money.... and buying wings even further out

[@thonatim5321]

$10 OTM is $10 away from the stock/index price. This is $10 above and $10 below the price at entry.

[@Eqnotalent]

@@thonatim5321 we got that part. But is it u hedged or it’s a iron condor. If is an IC How wide are the wings?

[@thonatim5321]

@@EqnotalentAn Iron Condor is a strangle with wings. Simple. Tasty did a whole series a few years ago on buying the wings. Buying the wings are to cap the BPR. In the SPX $30 wings were perfect, $50 is not bad but $20 is to close to the short strike. I use $50 wings on my 0 DTE trades. It is a synthetic strangle because the long option decays much faster than the short option thus it does not hurt much if management is needed.

[@Eqnotalent]

@@thonatim5321 thanks. I get all the option strategies. I point is they never mention the exact trades they are comparing. 30otm IC. But the return the cvar depend on the width of the strike also. Which they don’t mention in the vid

[@Magyar1960]

Spy works the same way vs. SPX?

[@zerotaylor8139]

Not much，Options on SPX are Cash-Settled, means no assignment or exercise of shares.

[@Tom-pe8sk]

Tax treatment is different also

[@jesseporter5807]

XSP is the cash settled SPY equivalent, but the bid/ask spreads suck.

[@chuckwoolery9005]

They never focus on drawdowns or stop losses only profits.

[@richardSmith-iv3ep]

Makes no sense. According to Monday's options tables, If you sell SPY puts and SPY calls both $10 OTM for ZeroDTE, you accumulate ZERO for your two sales.

[@pa15632]

Can someone explain the structure of the trade they are describing? Is it a straddle with wings or is it a strangle with wings?

[@keithwingo514]

Either. The straddle with wings (Iron (Butter)Fly) has more credit and more risk. The strangle with wings (Iron Condor) has slightly less credit and slightly less risk. And moving the wings further out or closer in has the same effect on credit/risk. And lastly, managing the position (closing early) lessens the profit but ups the win-rate.

[@pa15632]

Thanks

[@billstevens5277]

@@keithwingo514I still don't get it. SPECIFICALLY, is this like a call credit spread that's 5 or 10 points wide? Plus a similar put credit spread? What would the deltas be?

[@Eqnotalent]

@@keithwingo514 did they ever mention how wide are the wings on those IC?

[@tchad2012]

@@keithwingo514it’s not either. The point is they tested an exact strategy. We are curious which it is, bc I agree that it is unclear.

[@Eqnotalent]

Winrate % is click bait stat. OTM take profit at 10% IC has 98% winrate. High WR% with most prem collected is what matters.

[@user-jd5fn1uy3f]

Take the ATM OTM 1 OTM2 and see what it says in their bid ask spread that is what they think that the whole month the 20 days of their 45 day trades will do cause if you look at the whole year ONLY 80% of the stock price expected so take the 80% and of that when he is saying the 2% MAX 95% of time is ONLY THAT HIGH in NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER when 50% of stocks move for the year of the 80% JFM months are 25% MOVES and so only 8.33 divide by the twenty days to get the EXPECTED MOVES so when they as market makers are calculating the MOVES per day when he is saying 95% time it will ONLY MOVE this much and ONLY BE WINNER so in JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH of the EXPECTED 80 PERCENT OF PRICE THROUGH WHOLE YEAR ABOUT AVERAGES TO 25% MOVES IN J F M/ so take 25% of the 80% of the price then divide by three months so MAX MOVE 8.33% MOVES IN the 20 DAYS of TRADING THAT MONTH so take you 80% of price get 8.33% divide by twenty days then for JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH the RATE IS LOWER MATHEMATICALLY THAN 2% as it is more like . 42 of % move so take it by the amount and calculate MAX EXPECTED MOVES for the month. THEIR BID ASK SPREADS TELL YOU HOW MUCH THEY THE MARKET MAKERS BASED ON HOW THEY MOVE MARKET TO HEDGE ALL SIDE WILL MOVE IT. In the SLOWER MONTHS OF YEAR take 25% TOTAL MOVES OVER 7 MONTHS so of the AVERAGE 80% of price change up then only 25% during SLOWER MONTHS so take 25% of the 80% average increase for any stock so take price of stock figure 80% max move on average increase in WHOLE YEAR NOT DAY to calculate HOW MUCH OF THAT MOVES PER DAY BASED ON MARKET MAKERS MOVES CONTROLLING IT during the 7 SLOW MONTHS we are coming up to in year then April MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER even OCTOBER when it starts going up the 7 MONTHS TOTAL IS 25% of years movement for the stock increase so we take 80% up figure 25% of that then divide into 7 months so 3.57 right then take that divide it down to 20 trading days in the month! SO SLOW MONTHS MAYBE IF WE ARE LUCKY COULD SEE .18 of a move WAY LOWER THAN the full 2% so when does 2 % MAX kick in? DURING THE 50% INCREASE SEASON at NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER! The stocks always at end of year make 50% of their moves in the last two months probably cause people know where finaces are and change stock buying based on tax planning for the following year maybe? But anyways the 50% of the MOVEMENT in the INCREASE of the 80% is 50% in LAST TWO MONTH of year so take 25% each month and DIVIDE by the twenty days of trading then you get to the 1.25 which is STILL under the 2 % he says for 99% of trades for the MOVES PER DAY as the MARKET MAKERS HIM he moves it to hedge against all sides and since they keep it to back within 10% of prior days they won't let it get too far above or below because they have to cover all sides on the opposite so they need their books to balance so they put in that 10% rule so it keeps it from major moves or they have to halt the things so the whole market does not crash! SO when he says 2% MAX he means it the RULES keep the whole thing no matter what stock it is , sure some seem like they climb but they will bring it back into balance and then the patterns return so that is when you get the 40/ 20 /10/5 PATTERNS when the market makers are moving it so with the 45 day ones he talks about all time he wants people to max out end it at 50% at the 20 day take profit and start a new trade on the PATTERNS of ALL the longer trading the 90/60/45/ 30 etc the 20 days of the 45 and they createates the patterns in the 10 and the 5 day trading the theta times will cause people to sell at expected max profits and they can plan and move markets along and balance it out. So people want the BIG MOVES but even in November December when it IS BIG cause 50% of its moves are then still per day only twenty good days a month so still for 25% in those months it remains at the 1.25 so just under his 2% so when he says plan for the 2% under a DAY then it wins 99% but if you try for more then that is the day trades that go volatile when markets open or close and when they CROSS the open or close of the other markets. The 20 rule in place or it all HALTS to stop wild upsurge so HALTS people to keep it balnced for their books gives them time to hedge or move it to balance their books the market makers control how much it moves so they do not collaps with wild tradings . LOOK AT THEIR BID ASK SPREAD tells you what they expect the move per that month will be really and then figure what it is that day for the max move! Keep it under then they get their fees they make money they let us trade but if people get greedy and cause big moves and try to throw off their books that is when they will move it to knock everyone out and move it past stop losses to end everyones attempt to make it move bigger so they can keep it balanced on their books you just can not fight the market makers cause they are bigger and they will control how much it moves in any day and that 10% rule for return to hold it from change too much controls the whole thing too. So he is saying in a month your range --->depending on WHAT MONTH IT IS CAUSE JFM/ are 25% AMJ/JAS/O are 25% and N D/ are 50% of the MOVES ALL YEAR and usually the stocks move at about 80 % of price for year up so it ALWAYS stays UNDER the 2% 99% of time which is what his MATH tells you cause he is saying YOU WANT IT TO MOVE MORE you CAN PUT IN THE WILD MOVES BUT YOU CAN LOSE if you try to ! SO KEEP IT UNDER 2% and win 99% of times average is .42 JFM and next 7 months coming up SLOWER so only .18 and then November December 1.25 of the 80% of stock price a day! SO ALWAYS UNDER HIS 2% he has listed! (AND YES DAY TRADERS DO WILD PRICE MOVES AT HOURS WHEN VOLATILE BUT REMEMBER THEY HAVE 20 MOVE HALTS EVEN TO STOP THOSE BIG MOVES and really it just is ONLY during VOLATILE TIMES for DAY TRADERS then it goes BACK to SLOW GROWTH DAY BY DAY INCREASE and the whole year 260 TRADING DAYS the number per day is UNDER his 2% so he is saying for the LONGER TRADES to figure how much it really moves it is between .18 and 1.25% move per day of the 80% of the stock price so pick the stock and then figure how much 80% and then go by what SEASON it is on the calendar cycles as the market goes by PATTERNS and the support and resistance is going to keep it at that based on WAVES of 10 so 6 UP 4 down and that is why he says 60% time you can win but 40% you wont UNLESS YOU GO WITH FLOW! You can follow the MARKET MAKERS MOVES AND PATTERN OF MARKET AND STAY IN HARMONY AND MAKE MONEY GO AGAINST GRAIN UPSET THEM AND THEY CAN ELIMINATE WILD TRADES BUT BY HITTING TRIGGER STOP LOSSES TOO SO WATCH OUT! THE WAVES ARE usually in fibonacci sequences 8/7 up then 8 down and then 7/8/7 up then 8 down then 7 up and thendown 8/7 so the waves PATTERNS of finacci everytimes! Usually the price he says does NOT MOVE more than 1.5 max to more rarely! SO stay under per move each day to calculate and stay in his 94% win rates 50% of time it is within 20 on either side cause that halt rule and then 80% within 35 and the otherstill at 45 each side from where it sit 100% move by move day by day return to end of day within 10% I THINK I PAID ATTENTION TO WHAT HE SAID IN VIDEOS SO FAR?lol MARGIN MUST BE 50% and need 100% more free for the moves either way or margin call so we NEED 100 for the trade 50% of total for MARGIN ALL TIMES or margin call and another 100% for the move or the rules TRIGGER MARGIN CALLS! SO PLAN COST OF TRADES AND HAVE 250% then NO MARGIN CALL! IS THAT RIGHT YES?

[@user-jd5fn1uy3f]

60 ATM 30 OTM 1 10 OTM 2 and then divide by three is what he says in other video or 60 ATM plus OTM 2 10 ADD and gives range of their ask bids yes? for month then divide by twenty again to see what math below is yes! UNDER THE 2% YES?

[@tycobrahe7663]

“OTM” at what delta?

[@dhawker1]

He's basically saying OTM at 10, 20 and 30 strike distance away on both sides. e.g. if spx is at 5000, then 30 OTM would be 5030 and 4970.

[@1879gym]

Why will this strategy not continue?

[@bentechwild]

It could. They’re just saying that you need a market where there isn’t a lot of intraday big percentage moves (bc if there are then you lose money with this strategy)

[@hsutahsi]

it's funny they don't talk much about if the market is volatile what will happen with your money

[@SM-tk7qx]

Thank you for the content. Many of us small account traders can’t do 0dte every day if under 25k. Do you have a study on which day of the week is typically most profitable, volatile, or steady? Say we wanted to trade 0dte iron fly every Tuesday only

[@SM-tk7qx]

Or is there a Vix number or market condition to look for where the iron fly would perform best? I’m a closer

[@robertcurtis1191]

use /ES

[@germangarciadarosa2611]

That would be super interesting. For this strategy It'll be necessary to know which day of the week has historically the less movement intraday

[@tvlobo202]

​@@germangarciadarosa2611 There is a lot of papers of this calendar effect...Mondays on average have less returns than any other day of the week and more volatility

[@1roxtube]

Just buy more options from us to make it practical for most players in this game….c’mon man, really?

[@ginamarchisio]

I have to make emphasis on long-term investments and compounding growth and also on the importance of not overcommitting to a single investment. It's fascinating to see the varied perspectives on achieving financial growth on the stock market.

[@demetriussullivan4088]

Creating a growth plan is crucial. Aligning with a finance consultant or advisor becomes paramount to navigate complexities. After viewing the current stock market, I’m approaching retirement therefore I'm contemplating diversifying my investments. Any thoughts on the market sector investments into a retirement portfolio?

[@DerrickMansard]

I'm in a similar position, looking for diversified retirement options. Incorporating the stock market sector investments could be a smart move, considering its potential for growth. However, understanding the risks and market trends is key. Have you considered consulting a financial advisor to fine-tune this aspect of your retirement plan?

[@ReubenAxelson]

I have been in touch with a Financial advisor. With a startup of $ 100 k, my advisor chooses the entry command of my portfolio which has grown to approximately $ 450 k in some weeks.

[@ReubenAxelson]

He not only understands the intricacies of retirement planning but also has insights into navigating the stock market sector for potential gains.

[@virgilludwig]

This aligns perfectly with my interest in diversifying my financial portfolio. Could you share the contact information of your financial advisor for further guidance?

[@geeeee8268]

Funny you should say. I bought 1 5 point put credit spread with exactly $20 OTM. Just to prove the point that efen SPX always moves against me. Needless to say it moved against me... lost $250. Not a big deal. I should've known better when premium to loss is 1to1 on 5 points spread... Point proven though.

[@masonite1973]

the point is to sell a put spread, not buy

[@geeeee8268]

@@masonite1973 Yeah, sold. sorry :)

[@fernandodavidez757]

Let the Italian make his points, this guy has a huge ego.

[@Yt-user65000]

Italian? Looks more like Native American

[@SnapFactsGuru-id7gz]

Let the math genius talk about the numbers. Lol. Stop cutting him off. It looks rude man. Not trying to offend you but he's your partner, right? .... Let him finish his sentence.

[@user-nf9pc8pj6b]

for the love of God, these two are such grifters

[@vitalsign0]

10min data is useless for backtesting 0DTE

[@KOsoulja]

Why do you think so ?

[@ricomajestic]

They are not using stops so it doesnt matter.

[@bdml77]

Too complicated

[@sjjhalaa]

Please explain better: over past 20 years, SPX has moved open to close (on a daily / weekly / monthly / yearly) basis ???? if you say it has moved less than 2% 94.3% of the time, do you mean it has moved less than 2% on a daily or weekly or monthly basis?

[@frankruping9680]

Daily, what else?

[@Yt-user65000]

In one day, sir. 😂

[@ricomajestic]

Dude it is a zero DTE study

[@masonite1973]

2% per year. 🤣🤣🤣

[@johnsaunders4577]

Always selling options. Why don't you guys talk about simply buying options for us beginners? Geez

[@kevino4846]

Most option buyers lose money. Selling options is collecting the option premium up front, from the eventual losing option buyer.

[@paulturner956]

because buying SPX odte do not work or make sense becassue of the large decay oDTE