Dan Niles: Bullish in '24, Says Cash Top Pick for '25

[@IDTS00]

Summary * In 2024, Niles predicted a big rally for the stock market, which came to pass. However, he is more cautious about 2025, citing concerns about inflation and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as expected. * Niles believes that the market could experience a sharp multiple contraction if the Fed raises rates or if inflation remains high. He also points to potential headwinds for AI-related companies, such as slowing capex spending and disappointing consumer demand for AI-powered products. * Niles' top picks for 2025 include cash, Cisco, the KBW Bank ETF, and the iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF. He believes that these investments offer a more defensive approach to the market and have the potential to outperform in a challenging environment. * Niles also discusses the potential for M&A activity in the biotech sector and the opportunities that may arise in the Chinese market despite geopolitical risks. Overall, Niles believes that 2025 will be a more challenging year for the stock market than 2024. He advises investors to be cautious and to focus on investments that offer a more defensive approach.

[@travelingoptionseller4277]

The same guy calling for SPX 3000 relentlesly!! On CNBC week after week in 2023!!🤡🤡🤡 said EPS for 2024 was below 200. Never listen to the fools

[@Tyvaeerwat]

Csco 😳. Yeah right.

[@bananasmileclub5528]

Niles is the best! Great analysis!

[@SteelyTheVan]

Since no one will tell you, your into music completely counterfeits the expected seriousness of your program. I say this because effective communication is about the whole package.

[@roberts315]

good to listen to other perspectives and weigh against own views. Found it helpful and found comments questioning his abilities classic internet stupidity

[@tonyycheng]

Dan is a great investor, but he gets MSFT CapEx numbers wrong, I have to say he is spreading misinformation and make his analysis and predictions on AI worthless if I put it mildly. Here is what I noticed: Microsoft said it will spend $80B in this FY year from July 2024 to June, 2025. It's a fact and Dan's argument used it. Dan said Microsoft spent $20B in 1st Quarter and spent more than 20B in Sept Quarter, so actually in first half of 2025 calendar year, or second half of current FY, Microsoft CapEx will decrease, therefore, AI spending is slowing down, and AI stocks should see a decline. The logic looks good to me, But Dan really gets these numbers wrong. Microsoft actually spent $14.9B in the 1st Quarter this FY, not $20B, the spending in rest of FY or first half of 2025 calendar year will increase, not decrease. How can he make this kind of mistake?

[@qpfnexus1]

here let me google that for you Microsoft expects to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers in fiscal 2025 CNBC Jan 4th Microsoft reported $20 billion in capital expenditures and assets acquired under finance leases worldwide, with $14.9 billion spent on property and equipment, in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Capital expenditures will increase sequentially in the fiscal second quarter, Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said in October

[@viralvideosfunnyvideos]

also note that niles is talking about about 20 bill in q3 2034 (which is microsofts q1, as their year starts in june)

[@viralvideosfunnyvideos]

q3 2024, i mean

[@tonyycheng]

@@viralvideosfunnyvideos that's the I was talking about. But Microsoft only spent 14.9B, just google it.

[@veronica2764]

This guy predictions are joke! He’s been a bear for many years now.

[@有福-g7z]

This is why few people watch this channel. It's a waste of time. Who cares what this guy's son does or does not? Who cares what degrees he has?

[@watulukamedia6724]

You sound mad over nothing, R U ok?

[@oldrrocr]

🤣🤣🤣 were you expecting stock tips?

[@illegalsmirf]

Dan Niles, what a joke 🤣