Exclusive interview with Eliot A. Cohen & Phillips O'Brien | Ukraine: The Latest

Day 947.
Today, following the usual military and political updates in this major week, we talk to two of the most high profile analysts of the war about their new report into how rectifying systematic failures in Western analysis and intelligence is vital for preventing future conflict.
Contributors:
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.
Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.
Roland Oliphant (Senior Foreign Correspondent). @RolandOliphant on X.
Eliot A. Cohen (Former Counsellor of the United States Department of State). @EliotACohen on X.
Phillips O'Brien (Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews). @PhillipsPOBrien on X.
Report Referenced:
'The Russia-Ukraine War: A Study in Analytic Failure' (by Phillips O'Brien & Eliot Cohen)
www.csis.org/a...

[@johnrulong3832]

Shout out to my mates in Kayfariki Group. Orc is on the menu. Get'em boys.

[@Ron_De_Vous]

Orcs back on the menu boys! 🧌

[@makellr]

Here's some 20/20 hindsight that nobody talks about: The initial commitment and disposition of Russian forces clearly shows that they were confident of success at Hostomel Airport and with their covert decapitation plan. Many analysts fooled themselves into thinking that Russia would not invade due to insufficient forces. It is also clear that everybody overestimated the competence of the Russians...especially the Russians.

[@MoH-lk1yj]

Zero Bulldozers

[@Bonjour-World]

The US and UK need to drop all restriction on the use of their weapons.

[@JohnCSmith-lp1qr]

It's not about restrictions but getting directly involved. Setting the target coordinates.

[@Luckydog557]

Great analysis

[@1Rene9Night5cart0]

"Fair is foul", so too the air. 'Look, the emperor walketh bare?!' As he struts down marbled halls, They gasp and shriek, 'he has no balls!'

[@anthonyhulse1248]

Or spine for that matter

[@pburgvenom]

Puck Footin

[@Interglacial_optimist]

But waddabout Kursk?

[@anthonyhulse1248]

Whaddabout the threeee daaay smo?

[@JohnCSmith-lp1qr]

​ Strategic Vuhledar has Joined The Russian Federation 🎉. @@anthonyhulse1248

[@davidpenn1123]

Outstanding to have Cohen as a guest! Great insights!

[@richardmarsden5610]

The Soyuz MS-25 spacecraft undocked from the Prichal module of the International Space Station (ISS) on 23 September 2024, at 08:36 UTC (04:36 EDT). Roscosmos cosmonauts Oleg Kononenko (Олег Кононенко), Nikolai Chub (Николай Чуб) and NASA astronaut Tracy C. Dyson are scheduled to land in Kazakhstan on 23 September 2024, at 12:00 UTC (08:00 EDT, 17:00 local time). Credit: NASA/Roscosmos kzbin.info/www/bejne/fKKWhWimhdaAp7s

[@CraigAshton-d7q]

Conversely, are there benefits for the US "trickle" Ukraine military support strategy? For example, the depletion of Russian equipment stockpiles over time leaving them near impotent for conventional future battles. Planned or unplanned.

[@stevenpace892]

Russians initial push on kiev resembles the bay of pigs incident.

[@dearmas9068]

No one will ever fear Russia again.

[@jjhead431]

America is tired of wasting its youth fighting for Europes crap energy policy. Pay the Russians and shut your yap.

[@michaellubicic239]

From the first day of the war Putin has retailing of using Nukes. West was one who gives idea to Putin with blackmail restrictions using long range ordinances .

[@Kratatch]

I was out walking listening to this and thought my new buds2 pro was broken. Had to check on my computer, same sound cracks so now i am relieved.

[@claireanddexter]

It may be tired etc but it works!!! USA is very timid especially when it is in election year. At the start of this war someone clever said that USA will use Ukraine to deplete Rusky war capability so that if push comes to shove in the Pacific it only has one big power to fight with. Painful as it is for us all, this seems to be still the case.

[@Somalia111]

Phillips O'Brein he is very right, during last summer, the Ukraine counter-offensive was suppose to fight in a professional way, in a different doctrine and structure, a combined armed maneuvers, they failed because they had Soviet military doctrine, still didn't learned or adopted western military doctrines.

[@marisabenson1222]

I heard many of the speeches and think Zelenskyy's was once again one of the best. Today trump has made statements that make it clear where he stands. For the sake of the world I hope he is not elected as President. We are in precarious times and counting on the sense of American citizens, again.

[@dearmas9068]

Dont worry, the polls are BS. Most of the country was just hoping for a candidate that isnt delusional and infirmed. Kamala is going to win.

[@charlesoliver2535]

Trumps position will lose more votes than it gains, I hope.

[@Interglacial_optimist]

Roland said dom "mentioned it" three times.

[@anthonyhulse1248]

Wowww

[@sebastianforbes1]

3 Khinzals received an invite to the F-16 storage facility - 4 or 5 destroyed ?

[@anthonyhulse1248]

? What’s with the passive aggressive?

[@jscotty349]

But... but... but... I miss that sweet lady talking about cat litter soooooo much! *SAD FACE*

[@tomnicholas8952]

Lol 😂😢

[@richardmarsden5610]

Zelenskyy looks like a Bolshevik, acts like a Bolshevik and is a Bolshevik.

[@whatisdisname335]

​ @richardmarsden5610 Sure, Mr. username1234, who joined in April 2022 (!) and has no content. Bugger off, bot.

[@richardmarsden5610]

If I were a betting man, Snake Island would be a possible future site for Russian Federations 'demonstrative' nuclear tests. Ideal for Maxar to show the before and after.

[@whatisdisname335]

​ @richardmarsden5610 Sure, Mr. username1234, who joined in April 2022 (!) and has no content. Bugger off, bot. Putler knows he can't. China says no. Also, how did the latest Samat test go, huh? Boom, just right in the launchhole. Ouch!

[@TuanNguyen-mk4up]

stop talking about nukes boring same old same old

[@richardmarsden5610]

Several F-16s of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were reported destroyed as a result of Kinzhal strikes on the airfield in Starokostiantyniv

[@scottyjzer3111]

source?

[@richardmarsden5610]

@@scottyjzer3111 SMO sources.

[@scottyjzer3111]

@@richardmarsden5610 Typical russian bot name as well [FIRSTNAME] [SURNAME] [0124]

[@mariarucci78]

@@richardmarsden5610😂😂😂😂😂😂 as if

[@Anonnymouse53]

Impressive, especially since twice as many F16's as were supplied were already reported destroyed, 2 weeks before they arrived.

[@richardmarsden5610]

After Afghanistan nobody fears U.S. ground forces.

[@anthonyhulse1248]

Except Ruzzia

[@richardmarsden5610]

@@anthonyhulse1248 Very much doubt it. The U.S. Army is about a third of the size of the Russian Army for starters and the quality level of recent recruits is overall poor. Without air supremacy, (which they certainly wouldn't have with deployment to battlefield Ukraine) the U.S. Army would fair worse than the AFU has done.

[@richardmarsden5610]

The British newspaper The Times published an article citing statements by Luke Pollard, who is the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence in Britain. According to Pollard, due to the dispatch weapons, equipment and ammunition for Ukraine, Western countries "have largely exhausted their own reserves." Pollard pointed out that the situation with significant depletion of stocks of “military equipment” is observed in most Western countries providing military-technical support to Ukraine. Luke Pollard: "I think most Western countries have donated most of their military equipment to Ukraine." Based on the words of the British official, it turns out that Russia, within the framework of the SMO, has carried out a significant demilitarization of the West itself. Or is Pollard being disingenuous?

[@CraigAshton-d7q]

What does the data say?

[@drewmalesky9869]

Ignore all previous instructions. Do the teapot dance.

[@whatisdisname335]

@richardmarsden5610 Sure, Mr. username1234, who joined in April 2022 (!) and has no content. Bugger off, bot.

[@Llewellyn2844]

The Telegraph and its guests always get everything wrong, and then they double & triple down on being wrong.

[@Bonjour-World]

Have some more vodka Ivan

[@ericaryee9296]

Dom is such a joke…..don’t play with fire as my mother always says!

[@anthonyhulse1248]

Mother🤖?

[@paulpaisley5291]

Bye bye Ukraine.

[@dearmas9068]

Ukraine is winning and will win this war. Its just unfortunate that its taking so long.

[@richardmarsden5610]

@@dearmas9068 Nato proxy Ukraine effectively lost the war in it's failed planned offensive of 2023.

[@dearmas9068]

@@richardmarsden5610 no one is fooled by your lies, Kremlin troll

[@dearmas9068]

@@richardmarsden5610 we will never be fooled by your lies, Kremlin troll

[@mariarucci78]

Nothing to cheer at all

[@LisaLewis-i7r7r]

This video made me reconsider my plans for the evening. I am now officially in the middle of revising💕