The #1 Live Poker Exploit You Can’t Afford to Miss

[@CrushlivePoker]

The exploit to recognize is that most opponents in live poker will not have enough bluffs to warrant a call when you see this type of aggression. Turn check raise vs the preflop 3 bettor followed by a river jam is an extremely value heavy line. Determining when opponents rarely have bluffs and being able to fold big hands is the #1 pro level exploit you must master to achieve a high win rate.

[@GotoyourhomeBall]

Hero gets jailed due to bad *sizing* is a better title.

[@jt4391]

I think many players are miss using smal sizes when deep, i think the concept using small sizes multi way is over rated, J 43, why you bet smal to target 1 street of medium pockets. U are not playing 100BB deep, what about reverse implied odds against 2 medium pocket pairs.

[@BroncoWalker25]

This is one of those hands where the described situation (3am, game breaking down, some players a little tilty) makes me want to call wider than usual.

[@ZenMadmanPoker]

Very cool hand. I think it's well-played by both players. When the flush comes in on the river and villain jams, sure, maybe the flushes aren't taking that size, but busted flush draws can no longer be used as bluffs, raising the question: Where are the bluffs coming from? The only logical answer is: 65s, which quite logically overcalled the flop and then bluffed the turn. This is a solver-approved line 200bb deep HJ v CO heads up to the flop. The addition of BTN in the hand juices the pot and lends extra credibility to the bluff, as a minority of players take advantage of spots like these: Heads up situations in formerly-multiway pots. I remember Bryce Paradis talking about this in a limit holdem context back in the days of yore. Meanwhile, hero's play is quite logical. The field just won't have enough bluffs on this river to warrant a call. (Even the turn call feels uncomfortable, despite the great odds.) A strong read that villain is a sicko might overrule this and allow for a calldown. You don't want the Ad on the turn (solver actually mixes fold with hero's combo in my sim), but you do want it on the river. But it only matters if villain can actually find this line with 65s, and even then it could still be close. JJ (3), 99 (1), J9s (1), 44 (3), and 33 (3) add up to 11 potential value combos, not to mention possible flushes, and we're still looking at just 3 bluffs. You'd need to significantly discount a lot of that value or find some extra bluffs to argue for a river call.

[@jacevincent2574]

Agreed, although I would heavily discount 44 and 33 on the flop. With 2 diamonds out there multiway, I would bet these low sets that unblock top pair are check raising for protection at a huge frequency. I also discount J9s because of preflop, but that might be a mistake on my end given the pot odds from the cold caller. JJ (3), 99 (1), 44 (1) and 33 (1) is still 6 value combos and 3 bluffs assuming 65s is bluffed here. I would never assume 65s is being bluffed here at 2/5 live though. Tough one!

[@ZenMadmanPoker]

@@jacevincent2574 I would expect all flopped sets to check/raise at a fairly high frequency, even top set. Sure, JJ blocks top pair, but hero has a lot of overpairs to get value from and the board is a bit wet. But I agree that 44/33 would x/r even more than JJ. I do think a lot of live players call the 3-bet with J9s, but the population certainly doesn't do this 100%. So everything's getting discounted to some extent, including 99, which might fold flop rather than overcall, especially without a diamond. But 65s should also be discounted because of the population's failure to find turn x/r bluffs.

[@MaximusMerideus]

99 seems like a fold on flop with button behind.

[@De_General23]

@@MaximusMerideus​​⁠ for that size bet that’s not a terrible call. My thoughts pocket 9’s/set on turn would lead because of board texture instead of check raise although the check raise makes sense as well. Hero hasn’t looked strong since pre flop with his bet sizing but calling the check raise HJ has to know he has something pretty damn good. The 9 on the river I’m really discounting quads especially with the lead jam. Who really lead jams with quads, or a boat for that matter? You’re looking to get value. Idk this one would have had me tanking pretty hard as well. What it comes down to is how exploitative/player type Hj is. Some guys will lead jam here and it’s what makes it look so damn bluff heavy. I would not feel good at all about calling here and not even getting 2:1 but, that’s what I would be leaning towards but, this one on the outside looking in…I honestly have no damn clue.

[@Wolf.of.Gotham]

Villian had a Boat, he called a 3Bet pre-flop, check & called the flop, ✔️ raised turn & shoved river! 5♠️6♠️ my ass. He wanted to stunt like he pulled off sum major bluff

[@royalflush8173]

Exactly

[@Perspectives4real]

I concur JJ

[@donaldshotts4429]

Idk? The hero kind of under bet so I could see 56 calling. Plus it was 3am and players tend to be tilty, tired ,etc like someone else noted. I think I would've shoved the turn, but I play $1/3 with alot of idiots and $500 isn't $2700. Hero bet so small villain might've put him on QQ or AJ...maybe TT and thought a big bluff would take it

[@bradleyhines604]

I don't know why you even have you think about the river. On the turn, most 2/5 villains are usually only check raising there with sets, J9, or flush draws. If that's his whole range, you're not beating anything on the river. I would snap fold.

[@NorCal_Poker]

Just me, or does anyone else not believe someone had a bluff if they don’t show it live but later claim it?? 🤔

[@FezTheBlockchainDev]

Yeah, not saying that the opponent is capable of bluffing that spot but I don’t think most 2/5 regs can find a 65♠️♠️ bluff there.

[@gordonrules123]

I think it doesn’t matter…. As long as you make the right decision in that moment, results speak for themselves

[@yoitsdan]

There's no hard and fast rule. They could be pulling the ol' double whammy anyway.

[@MelFinehout]

My first thought. I think they are lies over half the time. If I play with you frequently, and didn’t show in game, I’m definitely lying to you later, strategically. It’s the +EV thing to do. If I (or you) were visiting from out of town, I’d tell the truth.

[@nuklearwinter2892]

There’s zero chance the guy had 56s, come on

[@montezuma6962]

@12:15 "Now that the board is paired, is he really jamming a flush?" In what universe does a player raise the turn with a flush draw and then [with 1 pot bet left] not put the rest in when he makes his hand?

[@Millnoc]

Late night, short handed, using these tiny sizes with aces is such a leak. These guys want to be balanced… why??? Pump the pot pre, flop, turn

[@BroncoWalker25]

I agree, why are we playing 3am 2/5 live like it's some tough online game?

[@Kektamusprime]

trying to get to tricky

[@KyleHanky]

I think the board pair is not that important - in theory at least - when villain jams with an SPR of 1. I think at that SPR you can have a jamming range of good flushes and boats. If the SPR were bigger, then villain can probably have two sizes. That said, this is live poker, so I would think that there is a decent chance that villain is not thinking too structured about this. I also agree that the Ad does not matter on the river. I think it does matter on the turn: I think that having the Ad would increase my check frequency as I have lost my backdoor equity and it blocks a bunch of villain's range that will call and is a worse hand. Agreed that people are underbluffing this a ton. Great video and interesting hand.

[@Steveyyyidk]

Good points, good post. Not sure if you're saying at SPR of 1 villain could be or wouldn't be bluffing here.

[@KyleHanky]

@@Steveyyyidk I agree with Bart that villain is probably just underbluffing, even at SPR of 1. He should bluff 33% of the time, and when river is a diamond, IMO, he probably doesn't hit that threshold. If he is underbluffing, than we gotta fold all bluffcatchers, which I think AA is in this spot.

[@Steveyyyidk]

@@KyleHanky Well said. Tx for the reply.

[@supersmoo7377]

If Villain is capable of showing up here at the end with a hand like that (a weird bluff), then hero should have picked up on some tendencies on this player during the session. Hero should have known this player was capable of bluffing, or making loose plays; and it should have influenced hero towards the correct river decision.

[@1vailchris]

Bart, do we read anything into V's somewhat small turn raise sizing that would lead us to think he might be bluffing on the river? If he's repping boats on the river, don't his 2P and sets raise larger for value and protection on the turn? If he's repping non nut flushes on the river, don't those hands slow down and possibly check river when the board pairs, and hero could have drawn to the nut flush? Just seems like he can't rep both boats and flushes the way this was played.

[@danielarthur3110]

You’re really good at explaining poker

[@markfromct2]

This one is a classic thank you

[@ThePatriots010304]

What full house does hero have in a 3 bet pot with that board and would play it like this? If I’m villain there’s no way hero would have a full house in this spot. It’s strictly an overpair or flush for hero.

[@McDonaldReagan]

What about QTdd? Watching the video through to the end- that hand is screaming out to me. So much equity on the flop he cant really fold with so much in the pot, especially after button folds on the turn?

[@juhiss912]

Tricky hand I agree with hero's line just size up on preflop & turn. I'm folding this all day here. He rarely has anything but value here, cuz with the line he took he needs to float the flop & small check/raise the turn to just have air. The only hand you may do this with is 65s non-diamond. That's the only hands. I think also non-nutted flushes can jam this just for the sake of getting bluff catched. Cuz hero really doesn't have too many boats here other than with JJ. So yeah I think it's a good line to find a bluff on with 65s by villain (if he really had it) but also I think folding is correct here every time.

[@BH-fd4pl]

The small bets on flop/turn invite a bluff. Villain thinks he can make you fold. I would jam turn based on caller’s assessment that V is crafty with bluffs and get my value against draws, and if he has a set so be it.

[@seenvideos6828]

I call bs on the 56s, he’s really check raising there when the 3 bettor continues barreling on J-4-3-9 into two other players seems a bit of a stretch

[@sean3533]

Villains hand sounds like one of those the solver says jams 80%

[@dominicclark5342]

If villain cannot have nut flush then a river shove with a board pairing diamond reads a boat or a bluff. This idea of playing the open ended straight with the opportunity to bluff a flush on the river isn't the worst idea. Because the river completes the flush and pairs the board I have to put the villain on a boat or a bluff.

[@pauliseri935]

J-8,10,Q,orK of diamonds?

[@guanaco103]

I like betting 70-80% on the turn UNLESS you’re betting to induce and 3bet jamming, hero didn’t realize how disguised his hand was imo on the river.

[@MichaelTilton]

I either fold or jam the re-raise turn. There is no point in calling to fold a jam on the river.

[@omusialo]

I generally agree - with made hands, the decision is ultimately made on the turn to continue the hand or not. Once in a while a river can change the dynamic of the hand, but overall, I'm with you on this one.

[@Michael-sz7lp]

Yeah, I was assuming his calling on the turn, meant he'd call the river. The 9D seemed to me that it'd be an easier call.

[@De_General23]

And this is about the only thing I’ve come up with myself. I’m not calling the check raise just to wait and see what disaster the river brings. If losing 3k really hurts hero he shouldn’t be playing those stakes or if playing scared run it twice but, I’m with you 100 percent because the actual river here and the lead jam would just have me entirely mind fkd unless I knew hj well and what he’s capable of.

[@danielmeuler2877]

The Vilan made a good bet on the river. It got threw.

[@Steveyyyidk]

I'm not saying he misplayed it, but it seems like there's a lotta callers with big hands who try to use GTO principles while not fully understanding them, because it's not easy to play like a solver. Maybe Hero'd be better off asking himself how capable villain is of bluff shoving in general, and play the hand from that standpoint, instead of making small bets he thinks the solver would, then folding while having no idea what the solver would do.

[@yoniker83]

Play scared poker. What an exploit! Thanks, master.

[@nuklearwinter2892]

The guy had 33 or 44 and was waiting for a safe turn before springing the check raise. No way he had 56s.

[@TheDailyBanana]

Exactly. He had a set and was trying to find a way to get it all in against OP who loves to bet tiny.

[@jeremyb6022]

Can someone explain like I'm 5 why Bart says he would rather have QQ with Qd when facing a jam on this river?

[@EllieBanks333]

Because he is thinking some of the primary combo bluffs on turn would be hands like QTdd or T8dd. If hero has QdQx, then QTdd cannot be held by villain at all. Also the T8 draw involves hitting a Q & hero blocks this by holding 2 Q's. Finally, QQ & AA are basically the same hand strength here. We don't think villain ever has KK here.

[@justinhart7172]

The caller goes I don’t if this villain should be called more often cuz he’s capable and finds creative bluffs … NO SHIT that’s exactly what it means to call him

[@davidr1620]

Fold the turn and don’t tell a damn soul what you folded. X raises on turns three ways in a 3b pot is massively underbluffed

[@De_General23]

No analysis although I love everyone’s. Just a question….Who the hell really lead jams with a boat let alone quads?? The only thing I can factor into that is my opponents poker identity/personality and is he capable of it? If anyone that reads this if you could at a minimum just leave a “C”all or “F”old I’d appreciate it because this one is honestly the definition of being blended in the tank!

[@Fred-rg5vw]

St by St. I defn bet bigger on flop. I get that approx 1/3 pot is kinda standard.. but v 2 opponents with a connected board..2 diamonds id want more protection. More like 70% pot. From then on I dunno. If I'd bet small on flop..I might even check . And go into check call mode depending how it played out. Facing the check raise tough 1. It's shove or fold. Not sure which is better. Cant call imo as if villain shoves any river we are in trouble

[@revbenball]

Would any of you fold face up to induce a reveal?

[@pokerqAK47]

Never

[@Jolly-Green-Steve]

HJ could have potentially flopped a set or he could more likely have pocket 88s or J10 and bluffed you. So was this guy a knit or an action player is what I would factor in. With your amount of money committed versus the call size a fold is the better decision. It comes down to your read as well like I already said. Is he hamming it up or is he locked in stare at the felt? Is he not talking or trying to goat you? these are all factors along with just his aggression level. Pocket 99s does make sense but his 65 claim does as well especially if he plays a lot of hands.

[@TheDailyBanana]

He had 44 or 33.

[@TheBlur30]

Turn CR is very under bluffed. I think finding an exploitative told on the turn is reasonable. Also having the A of diamonds is not great.

[@jacevincent2574]

but what about the pot odds! River could be an ace!

[@soren8994]

​@@jacevincent2574what pot odds when relaying on the two aces? You're not getting enough pot odds for this😅😅

[@jacevincent2574]

@soren8994 My comment was kind of a joke but pod odds are a thing. He could be bluffing, and even if he isnt there's a 4% chance the river is an A which isnt insignificant since you're always good when that happens

[@soren8994]

@@jacevincent2574 a joke? Okay

[@Acesnickvlc]

If you fear villain having a flush draw on the turn, why wouldn’t you jam the turn?

[@RubberDuckStyle]

How do you give a hand a rating of 9.0 but you don't know what's coming?

[@mikey22355]

It seems like a bluff on the river but people are pretty dumb with value hands sometimes. Could have easily had 2 pair or trips and took a similar line before the river.

[@edb7742]

How likely is it that the Villain had a big hand, e.g., a flush or full house, but claimed he bluffed?

[@brettmasonmedia]

When villain raises turn he’s really only saying he has two hands. 99 that floated. Or QdTd.

[@Nikkithedog-t6b]

Is your comment meant as a joke? What do you know about the villain here?

[@aarona3111]

Well op doesnt know what ‘floating’ is so what do you expect

[@bomblade15]

65s...you tell him you have AA...he lied

[@MikeMane-ex1vf]

The betting size is wrong. Another opinion is that you should not let two or more players see the turn or river if you have pocket Aces.

[@TheDesertFaux]

If you aren't calling with AA with ace of diamonds, what are you calling with as a bluff catcher? Other bluff catchers: 44, 33? Hard for hero to have a 9 for bluff catching. If you aren't calling with any bluff catchers, you are overfolding. It may be right in this game to never bluff catch, but it seems very exploitative to have no calls in your range here. You could randomize and call with AdAx some percentage of the time. I mean, I'm probably just folding here because it's a big river bet, and I don't have a great hand, but that doesn't mean it's the best play.

[@lewisriddle5859]

KJ of diamonds might play like that

[@lewisriddle5859]

@stephenmcarthur8490 the hero couldn't have a full house as played. Can make a better hand fold if you shove the turn or flop & wouldn't have to depend on making a hand.

[@thefeelingofunfair4052]

I'm from Pittsburgh and never heard of Hollywood

[@philpowell3416]

It is at the Meadows in Washington, PA.

[@robert2375]

seems like heros hand is face up for the villan after he only calls raise on turn. sets up villans play on the river. shouldn't most players fold over pair on this board given the action?

[@bsheaves]

This would be a 1000 IQ play if you just had the jack of diamonds in your hand 14:08

[@JeffreyHaefner]

On River after villian jams, Hero goes “I could have some boats here” hahahahaha NOPE u have zero boats sir.

[@EllieBanks333]

Why can't he have JJ? Because he did not 3 bet jam turn?

[@bryanjohnson8162]

On the turn could hj ever be value owning himself??? With KJ AJ

[@SovietWrath]

Hey lied about having 56 SS.

[@rppoker8541]

5 6 of diamonds makes more sense

[@royalflush8173]

He had jack 9

[@omarfromthewire603]

Hero got bluffed off his AA for a $3,755 pot with 6 hi 😂😂😂

[@chelseafanfromasia]

Dont buy that story at all. If he was making a play, he would probably done either on the flop or the turn if he picked up more equity, say if the turn was the 9 of spade instead. What is the point of check raising a naked open ender on a flush draw when you only have 6 clear outs. 10d8d, Qd10d, or KdQd make more sense. Strengthened significantly on the turn, and made his flush on the river. Or he could also conceivably flopped a set or hv J9 for thick value that slow played the flop against 2 players. Good fold😊

[@whome8845]

I call and say I miss read my hand and bored😂

[@tym8091]

He was DEFINITELY bluffed lol

[@royalflush8173]

You bet 200 wiyh 2 diamonds on? You should of bet 350

[@louiemoua2894]

5-6 spades is such a BS hand to say they had. I would be more likely to believe that person had flopped a set of 3s or 4s.

[@Breezybartrading9508]

Terrible fold at 3am

[@AlienationIsReal]

The villian is full of it. If he had 5s6s, he would've raised the flop not the turn. He either had a flush or a boat. Don't be gullible. No way AA was good here.

[@11CLiv]

Call ins without reveals shouldnt be aired. Dont believe the claims to have had nonsense

[@davidtalbot9325]

He did not have 56 spades. That was simply a lie. Believe that, whether I'm right or not.

[@Gofkuself]

The biggest problem you guys have is thinking way too much. With AA you don’t get all your money into the pot? What is wrong with you?!

[@royalflush8173]

He lied he had jack 9

[@CleanMoneyLLC]

Just calls turn Why didn’t he just get it in 😂 I don’t know how any of these ppl make money playing I really don’t I want in these games I’ll play and game any stakes I don’t find any action like this anymore

[@Nikkithedog-t6b]

As I was watching I knew it was a certainty Bart would say the turn was a call and the river was a fold. The sizing both flop and turn was horrific and opened the door to the bluff. The more I hear the callers on this channel and the commentary from Bart I realize how incredibly healthy poker is because the training is horrid as is the play at almost all levels. The call on the turn is so bad rather than shove or even fold at that point, but folding is pretty exploitative.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

I know Bart often preaches his “fifth street chicken” thing of calling turn and folding river even on a brick. But this isn’t an example of that. Calling turn and folding river is completely reasonable when the river brings in a flush draw.

[@pokerqAK47]

65 my ass. Lies. He had it. Whatever it was

[@JorgeTorres-tx3rq]

Sometimes u have to randomize and the 9 of diamonds is the perfect card to call down on with such a good bluff catcher. Reduces boats, u block the nut flush, the all in action is a bit weird. And as u said, most players don’t bluff often enough so why would u give him credit for a turn bluff with diamonds?

[@TetrisPimp]

Save yourself 19 Minutes, Hero got SCARED with Pocket AA and Folded the Winner 🤦🏻‍♂️