The $12 Trillion Opportunity (A Call Option on Infinity! Valuating Teslabot Pt.2: The Road to CHOAM)

[@ConnectingODots]

To try everything Brilliant has to offer-free-for a full 30 days, visit brilliant.org/ctdots/ . The first 200 of you will get 20% off Brilliant’s annual premium subscription. ➡When will Optimus be ready? ➡How will it change Tesla's financials and how will it change the world? Let me know what you think!

[@davidhawkins7138]

The hardware looks ready for production, but I think it will take a couple of years to get the software ready for wide, general release. FSD vehicles don't learn, they run highly-optimized neural nets that are created by supercomputer clusters. Bots need to learn new tasks. So, even if the actual learning continues to be done by a networked supercomputer, the overall architecture for identifying a task, learning how to do it and optimizing performance needs to take place as-if the bot is doing all the mental heavy lifting. Many parts of the FSD perception, training, and inference execution will be useful platforms to build on, but these tools were developed with data that describes what is fundamentally a 2D (i.e. map) model of the world with a constrained set of known objects and simple control mechanisms (stop, go, steer). The bot's world is 3D with orders of magnitude more objects to understand and manipulate..

[@ConnectingODots]

For a general purpose do anything bot, i fully agree, but for a factory worker all the tech is there. It's explained in my previous video (two weeks ago), and in more depth in my "Teslabot is a done deal" video from IIRC a year and a half ago. It's just like FSD being hard to solve, but many companies have traffic aware cruise control - the factory-worker problem is easier by orders of magnitude

[@davidhawkins7138]

@@ConnectingODots I agree that the bot can be economically useful in a Tesla factory very soon (in 2024). I'm pushing back against the idea (proposed by others) that Tesla can immediately start manufacturing hundreds-of-thousands or millions of them for immediate sale. Some people seem to think that loading FSD into the Optimus and adding a Large Language Model will make the bot useful as a general assistant. I know that's not your point. In Tesla's restricted home environment, the bot can be useful once it is trained. Tesla can afford engineering and R&D resources for training in its factors because that is product development. But Tesla can't afford to offer support and integration services to customers. Early versions of the software stack will be fragile and need babysitting. Tesla needs to do some fundamental research to create a cost-effective real 3D world learning pipeline before they can afford to start manufacturing at scale. BTW - Your channel is one of my favorites. It's full of thought provoking insights. Thanks for your hard work.

[@gcauldwell]

17:56 - BORG: once one robot masters a task, instantly all of them own the skill

[@gcauldwell]

We are Borg - resistance is futile!

[@jaydouglas5847]

Yes. tesla bots at any given factory will benefit from having a hive mind. Any bot on a chassis line can fill on for a bot on the body line and so on. Any bot in the factory can fill any bot position. This will apply later to home use bots. Pick skills from a bundle package at X$ per month. Robots to cook ,clean and do electrical and plumbing repairs. A total library of skill sets to choose from. Pick 20 skill categories upon purchase and subscribe for more or cancel at anytime. Updated skills daily. This is exciting stuff.

[@heidisalaka6938]

It’s shocking to me that you don’t have more subscribers. Excellent.

[@mrleenudler]

Too long between videos. Algorithm doesn't reward quality, unfortunately.

[@mervstash3692]

😂😂😂 3 losers glazing some vapourware? Yeah, no idea why they don't have more subs

[@zm5668]

It's shocking to me anyone os impressed by that terrible shitty robot

[@zm5668]

​@@mervstash3692hahaha

[@JaiUneGuruDeja]

I am all-in on TSLA. They had me BEFORE the Bot.

[@thetreeoflife3452]

I'm 60% in TSLA but will be buying more next year.

[@AlanFennell]

@@thetreeoflife3452the 40% must be in something amazing 🤩

[@eric2394]

@@thetreeoflife3452how many shares is that

Haha. Good luck 😅

[@azhuransmx126]

​@PalOliverKristiansen Tesla hater always fail because put their hate to Elon Musk before Logic

[@MathGPT]

The main job of Optimus should be to build more of itself

[@itzapeezacake580]

That will be next. They need to give it something useful to do now while still in the prototyping and testing stage, because they are not yet ready to mass manufacture bots. While they learn how the bot is doing with the automotive lines they can see if they need to add or delete something from the not before mass manufacturing the bot.

[@Jens.Krabbe]

@@itzapeezacake580 There’s quite an overlap between making cars and making robots: Building actuators, motors, sensors, install wiring, feeding parts to stationary robots, and so on. All this work will basically be the same. When it learns to do one, it can do the other just as well. I will not be surprised to see Optimus eventually do everything from digging up raw materials to delivering products to the end consumers.

[@bru512]

@@Jens.Krabbe Exactly. Not mentioned in this video, that there are jobs all the way through the existing complex supply chains. Not only will bots replace the workers, but they can easily streamline supply chains, cutting out multiple tiers of middlemen(businesses) and related profit margins further reducing supply chain costs. Summary? Costs will not trend to simply material costs, but trend to the cost of supply chain energy utilization.

[@Justwantahover]

That would be great for space exploitation. Bots building luxury pads for humans, who only come after the bots build the cities in space. O'Neil cylinders would be possible if bots mine asteroids. All for free! But to get the bots to build themselves (and a bunch of other stuff) would be a challenge. I'd rather spend the dollars on making bots build stuff, than sending humas to Mars (and nothing to go to). You have got to be kidding to send people when you can send bots instead. They build stuff to protect the humans when they come (with a bit of entertainment too). Humans would be advancing way quicker, that way (and cheaper). I bet making bots that can make themselves and stuff would be cheaper than sending 100 people to a desolate barren, freezing landscape (and nothing else to witness). 😅 Specially when you have to send a lot of other stuff to Mars as well, to support life. Bots won't need that so much, basically just power.

[@Justwantahover]

​​​​​@@Jens.KrabbeElon has got to be kidding, sending 100 people to Mars when he could send bots that build real stuff on Mars. So humans have something to come to when they go to Mars. Like night clubs, labs and proper toilets, protected from the radiation. It would cost way less to set that up so the bots can do it (and would be quite a challenge) but still probably way cheaper, and way less suffering than trying to send 100 people to a freezing desolate wasteland. And trying and keep them alive. And with nothing else to come to. 😅

[@Fridgidice]

Among many excellent points, the idea that products created during testing and deployment could be used in Tesla’s other product categories stood out to me. This, along with vertical integration, having direct access to engineers and factories and databases, compresses R&D. Even if optimus is the most advanced humanoid by capabilities, the R&D would be dramatically lower than competitors because they’re already capitalizing on useful work during testing while also rapidly iterating. People are not ready for how fast this will all move.

[@robertmarmaduke186]

Work at one of the most advanced robotic assembly lines in the US, with row after row of both fixed and moving robots. It's impressive to watch them move and perform, but it's also an experience how fragile they are, how high-tolerance and constant-calibration they are, and from my employee perspective, how often the _outside service outfit_ is called in. With all of the tasks CNC programmming outsourced to In'dia, and all of the service work outsourced to regional 'authorized service centers', the only work left is Operator, and all that means is parts-changer, then sit and watch the remote videos for sparks or smoke. The company has also had to remove an entire $M robot line and replace it with humans again, where the robots couldn't tolerate even minor variations in (large) part dimensions, or had assembly feed parts jams, or parts start dropping in a pile on the floor. There are 100s of paid-bots chossing up Tesla threads, _but what is Optimus good for?_ Optimus is useful only as a 'teaser' for Tesla early-investor cash-float, like Tesla Truck buyer-deposit cash-float, Tesla Solar Tiles buyer-deposit cash-float, Tesla 'Mission Mars' NASA-grant cash-float, Tesla Battery Wall buyer-deposit cash-float, Twitter-X ad revenue cash-float. Besides, 2024 will be Happy Days (Are Here Again) indiscriminate Fed Fiat Jubilee, slush funding to anything and everything, ahead of the elections, why risk an *unproven* Tesla? Invest the index funds: Vanguard WW3 Sturm und Drang ADR or BlackRock Crypto ETF. _"Stocks are at their highest trading values ever! Isn't it time you came off the sidelines?"_

[@mervstash3692]

People will be fine mate. We can actually tell this video was fake AF. The real cope will be with you lads in another 10 years when this thing still can't stand on 1 foot without tethers and you finally realise you've been hit by another FSD level scam

[@JoePiotti]

I don’t know how I didn’t find this channel earlier. I have been saying exactly this for months. So glade to see someone else say it so well.

[@derrickstableford8152]

Consistency in the drudgery operations, is where Optimus can fit in, and out perform. Then think about the Sandy Munro video where he is walking around the Cybertruck line. The 2 people stacking the stainless stampings should not make any waves. They could be automated out in a heartbeat.

[@Justwantahover]

Since bots would not go on lunch breaks and smoko breaks (with complete contiuous concentration and no interruptions) I think it might be more like 4 times the output as a human. 😅

[@bobwallace9753]

Ignored costs. Human resource departments, recruitment, training, payroll systems, break rooms, bathrooms, parking lots, ....

[@goodyKoeln]

Lunch break is now called battery swap break.

[@bobwallace9753]

@@goodyKoeln Probably no need for a charging break. Just install wireless charging somewhere in the work area where the T-bot routinely steps. Example - with pick and place task, put the coils right in front of the 'place' destination.

[@rodneylee4026]

No workers coming in with their problems and hangovers. No infighting and gossiping. No calling in sick at the last minute.

[@larsnystrom6698]

After being deployed in Tesla's own factories, I think Optimus will be leased out to their suppliers. That will create an upheaval in the entire industry! Tesla's suppliers will reduce costs, not only for Tesla, but also for their other customers. Who wants to be a Tesla supplier. A great customer, with a large volume, and you get to lease Optimus! Also, SpaceX needs Optimus astronauts!

[@Bonjevalien]

Definitely re: astronauts! It would be so epic if (for show) SpaceX had the hatch open on mars, and 50 bots dive out, do a somersault and land in their feet, ready to work 😆😆😆

[@mervstash3692]

Find 1 video of it doing anything other that picking up small blocks with 1 hand. An actual real video, with witnesses present.

[@Morris_MK]

1. There is no electricity cost in his analysis. 2. For robots to work 24/7 we need some people to work during those hours as well. 3. Labor cost in Vietnam is much lower than $60K a year. At the same time: 1. People don't really work 8 hours a day, more like 6, and with various intensity. 2. Workers have turn over which results in significant reduction in productivity, training cost, hr cost, etc. 3. Robots will be much, MUCH more productive over time than people (move faster, carrying more weight, do higher number of tasks than a single person). 4. In mass production unit cost of a robot will be $1K - $10K, depending on particular needs. 5. There is a huge incoming demand in China (and many other countries) for robots as the ratio of old to young people will jump in the next decade.

[@OneLeggedDiver]

I really am baffled by the ignorance of so many people. Even with my friend who studies film, I show him the image generation capabilities of Ai and tell him the likely future of film making and he scoffs! SCOFFS! That's what people are doing with these new technologies as if it wasn't going to stick! Why, though? Why not be excited? Why does the media blow it off? Why do big name investors hold such low bars?

[@bobwallace9753]

Many people can't think forward. They can't see what has just happened and how it is likely to develop over time. The media? Almost all our media survives off advertising and large, established companies pay for ads. The companies most likely to be disrupted by tech advancement are funding the media. Look at Ford and GM who each spend multiple billion dollars each year on advertising. Do you think the media wants to talk about how Ford and GM are failing in the transition to EVs? The media can't afford to report honestly when it comes to Tesla and Chinese EV quality.

[@ElektronicEscalation]

People feel threatened by it

[@ElektronicEscalation]

But I wholeheartedly agree with you btw, very excited over here

[@gp4life03]

"robot's NBA" proceeds to show robot shooting a basket ... thank you

[@andrasbiro3007]

In the first Terminator movie they said humanoid robots will come in about 40 years. And we are almost exactly 40 years later now.

[@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck]

Have CGI. Will time travel.

[@mmikael281]

Interesting video. In this video too, a mistake is made when it is said that automation saves money. Automation, like any cost saving, mainly gives a competitive advantage. In the short term, profits may increase, but over a longer period of time, the value of the manufactured product decreases. This is important because if you make calculations according to the current operating figures, they are very inaccurate even in a relatively short period of time.

[@alexedens1]

As a Tesla line worker I sure would be thrilled to give all sorts of important performance feedback on the bot training to do my job. Golly gee that would be awesome!

[@FunNFury]

yes ! only if you can save yours.

[@frankjspencejr]

Yes, makes you wonder who’s going to buy products if no one has a job. UBI will be essential.

[@nguyep4]

​@@frankjspencejrProducts will be more affordable due to competition and low cost labors. Any manufacturer that reduces cost will out price their competitors to get customers and clients.

[@martinroskilly9994]

And that’s why people are missing the point. These robots aren’t for regular joes like us to consume. Just for the rich - hence why humanity will be culled. We’re too much of a burden for the system, especially the race that have 10 kids per family and receive handouts for doing nothing. The locust people on Planet Earth will become extinct very quickly.

[@azhuransmx126]

You will get the UBI don't worry.

[@brento2890]

Excellent presentation !!! Thank you ! 🦾

[@Slebonson]

I can't wait for V3.

[@MarkS-yb1bl]

Outstanding! Doesn't get much better than this! 👏

[@ConnectingODots]

Glad you liked it. Thanks! 🙏

[@hhal9000]

Exellent thesis and I couldn't agree more.I remember your first reference to Choam and reading the title to this video, I remember thinking that a good Tesla channel would be just that: ''Tesla and the Road to Choam''. Look forward to your next piece.Keep up the good work.

[@MarcoTrillion]

I'm all in! Awesome video, thanks.

[@noosapaul8058]

Just remember there's one thing these robots won't be able to do and that's to buy a manufactured product

[@bobwallace9753]

Carry that forward. Who will have any income to buy anything once human labor has been replaced? We need to be thinking about the new economy we will need.

[@mrleenudler]

@@bobwallace9753 Seen David Shapiro's videos? Lots of great thinking about Post Labour economics.

[@bobwallace9753]

@@mrleenudler I haven't. Checking them out now. Thanks.

[@fernmr]

This is just a historical cycle that repeats itself. Robots will be a tool to produce more.

[@jaydouglas5847]

Actually they will by virtue of UI- Universal income. The government will quickly craft law to tax robot workers. Those funds, when distributed to the recipients will be spent on goods and products and services.

[@ismailnyeyusof3520]

Tesla is indeed a very good company to build and develop really useful industrial humanoid robots. They are good with advanced electric motors, electronic chips, AI and they already have a ramped up industrial line manufacturing a range of products from EVs to mega batteries to superchargers to use humanoid robots. It's almost too perfect. With their inherent advantage I don't see how Tesla won't be a giant company in all its product sectors!

[@iceblock-z41]

i am sure that you understand the following buy it is not often spelled out clearly. the issue is not having a machine which can move and manipulate. it is generalised AI, that is; a robot which can be instructed to find the spanner and put it in my lunch box. the machanics of robots has been around to 70 years but the AI to move in the world and identify items and locations which is now on the horizon.

[@Barskor1]

With such savings any company can offer lower prices and maintain profit margins it will be the biggest beneficial deflationary move in history for the world.

[@juliahello6673]

How will this affect the economy? Would there be an economic depression?

[@RPhTom]

​@@juliahello6673 2 possibilities; 2. deflation & everybody lives in luxury & abundance OR mass unemployment & war.

[@tigertoo01]

Except with the elephant in the room being that with the current economic models every job that a robot replaces for a human that part of the economy that human provides dies forever unless there are new industries made for displaced people.

[@bobwallace9753]

@@juliahello6673 What it will mean is that human labor will have less and less value. We're going to need a new economic system. In the short term we will see the cost of goods and energy fall. But also we are going to see fewer and fewer jobs for people. If we stick with the current form of capitalism we have it is likely we'd end up with a very small number of people who 'own everything'. It's time for creative thinking.

[@chriscuthill1905]

What if Tesla decided they would only provide robots to companies to fill jobs that can't be staffed and/or only for buisness expansions, ie. Not replacing works?

[@infinitybeyond1089]

Still doing the thorazine shuffle

[@antonkarridian2895]

Optimus adoption will dominate because of the advantage of working in their own factories first.

[@douggolde7582]

One of Elon’s favorite quotes is “made by humans on earth”.

[@bru512]

I love that one... May have to change it to "Made by robots on earth".

[@benchokwaiman]

The only question in the first models that will work good are how long does it take before they break down and how much do repairs cost

[@jaydouglas5847]

Good question, Repairs on robots will be far less costly than paying for a human's medical insurance month after month. As to actual repairs, say a hip or knee on a human is 30k and rising. The whole robot, if sold and not leased is 20 to 30 k. A knee joint/actuator/motor might only be 1/20 the cost of a robot or less. It needn't take a doctor and team, an operating room in a hospital or any recover/convalescence period. The robot or another robot can take a part off the shelf and replace an arm or leg, on the spot, in no time. Cost of part only. Robots are inherently cheaper/quicker/easier to repair when damaged compared to humans.

[@artspark7697]

Exactly. Like electronics in cars.

[@daegueric]

This was great!! Thanks! Cheers from Korea & Happy New Year!!

[@freekmeulman4823]

Atlas a relic in just a year. Wild times.

[@wadeyorke8144]

Another KZbin presentation (can’t remember which one), assumes that the government will have to levy a heavy tax to the purchaser of the humanoid robots to provide UBI (universal basic income) to people whose jobs disappear. There will still be plenty of cost savings for the purchaser.

[@bobwallace9753]

We're going to need changes so that people maintain decent lifestyles as jobs disappear.

[@Ahldor]

This video made it clear that humanoid robots will be factory workers for quite some time before being released as consumer robots to the public. Because if you pay +$50k for a humanoid robot you will atleast expect it to do simple tasks. But we've learned that simple is hard and hard is simple for a humanoid robot, so the actual consumer robot market will not be significant before all these simple tasks are solved. Plus if anything goes wrong with consumer robots, like they are tricked into doing illegal or unethical stuff, then there will probably a very long global sales ban on all such robots. But for factory workers the environment is much more controlled and the company is in it to make money, so they likelyhood of factory worker robots going bad for the society as a whole is (hopefully) very slim.

[@mrleenudler]

A very long global sales ban, just like we have on cars, guns and the Internet, right?

[@OBEYTHEPYRAMID]

That's the thing. It's solved...I think you are some years late mate. And it's not 50k, it's 20k.

[@Bonjevalien]

You’re right. And the video is right; Tesla trains and uses the bot in house first.. and might be some time before they’ll have the bandwidth to sell outside, considering the giant use case Tesla has.. and.. Tesla should be very careful selling outside bc of the risks mentioned in the video

[@Bonjevalien]

The press whose *job it is to pull Tesla down, would jump over any obstacle to scoop a minor accident and spin it as Terminator part 5

[@Bonjevalien]

Tesla loses control over killer bots!!!!!!

[@derrickstableford8152]

After Tesla self consumption, would likely suspect sub-component or Tier 2 or 3 suppliers. I also suspect supercharger sub assembly like wiring could be done. Automation parts are already being supplied for robotic wiring.

[@smoothfeeder]

Few understand this 🎉$$ tsla

[@billymellon9481]

need that pop corn song for all silly dances

[@thewolfdoctor761]

I can see why Tesla doesn't want unionized employees. There would be a big problem when Tesla starts replacing humans with robots.

[@ExploringCabinsandMines]

The Bots battery life is of concern.

[@RonLWilson]

One of the things the tesla bot needs is a socket where it can plug in a external power source so that it can plug itself in when working near it, unplug itself when it needs to move somewhere else. This can not only recharge the its internal battery but supply power when plugged in to reduce drain on the internal battery. The robot should be able to handle all this with no human assistance. This should give the robot much more endurance.

[@PavelSumik]

clever people are hope for each country, congratulation

[@royromano9792]

It would make sense that if someone bought more than one. That the other one or rather all of them would be repair technicians for other robots also. Therefore it would be more optimal to have more than one.

[@adamriese3610]

a very nice sum up! I can't wait for the reaction of uaw at the "big 3" Tesla is winning on so much stages....

[@theodorehaskins3756]

So why do you dislike the UAW?

[@spacekrebel2331]

Also, Optimus will be responsible for $25k Tesla cars

[@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck]

Excellent! I needed a name for Plaintiff in the lawsuit. Thanks! Have American Citizenship. Will Sue.😢

[@artspark7697]

Good point.

[@SeniorRonson]

This is both exciting and terrifying. What happens to the lower class humans who rely on menial labor jobs to survive? With the rapid evolution of robots and their capabilities, where does it end? Then think about neural link with ai and robots, whoever gets there first will shape the future of humanity.

[@robertkaufman6184]

Regardless of my critique. This is still a great video. The ultimate result should be huge. That is enough for me.

[@commuterbranchline8132]

Yes, I agree, Tesla will become CHOAM. I am selling all I can to buy as many TESLA shares as I can as quickly as I can.

[@platin2148]

Good that people buy this crap stock makes shorting way better.

[@Coltn3125]

@@platin2148 Good luck with that position it has helped other make millions but they first had to start with billions. 🤣🤣

[@itzapeezacake580]

@@platin2148platin will be slapping himself silly in a few years over his shortsightedness. Please don’t delete yourself over the losses.

[@platin2148]

@@itzapeezacake580 You do that for months spans. Not for years.

[@lostandconfused26]

@@platin2148 tesla has put many hedgefunds out of business cause they shorted. if you want to lose your shirt and pants by all means short tesla. talk is cheap.

[@darrell7847]

And, people/mortals will be needed to maintain and manage these bots..

[@adriank8792]

Found your channel when you appeared in one of DrKnowItAll's videos. I love your Optimus deep dives

[@DonBrowningRacing]

Wow! Great video! Thank you!

[@photogol]

Thanks!

[@ConnectingODots]

Thanks photogol, I highly appreciate it 🙏

[@Glathgrundel]

I’m glad that people are sceptical of the inevitability of androids … it’s an opportunity for people like me to get in on the ground floor as an investor and early adopter. The Future is a Train … people either get aboard or get out of the way. There’s a third option, but that won’t end well for them. 🤖

[@johnclark5148]

Totally agree

[@stevewolfbrandt4932]

The hands are amazing !

[@rctezluh42069]

upvoted!!!!

[@lumtavon1952]

Cheap labour everywhere will eliminate also expensive shipping of finished goods around the world . The progress in the last 2 years is truly unbelievable thus feel the predictions regarding the future are far too conservative.

[@bru512]

True. It's already happening now. Advanced manufacturing is cheaper than the cheapest labour pools.

[@bobwallace9753]

Localized manufacturing and localized energy as we electrify and move to renewable energy is going to drastically change global economies.

[@johnmccone2785]

I remember, in a talk, that Elon Musk said the Tesla Robots would be slow for safety reasons. I.e. he would make the robots sub human in some ways to keep them safe. But now I can see the incredible economic pressure that robot companies will be under to make them superhumanly productive, which will likely make them superhuman in many other ways. Which will also make them very dangerous

[@rayspencer7255]

Tesla's answer to the UAW !

[@elirothblatt5602]

Great discussion, thank you.

[@jkimo1178]

The question is how long it will take TSLA to 10x or 100x. I might be dead and gone by then!

[@theodorehaskins3756]

So, if that’s the case, then, why would it matter?

[@snookmeister55]

10x while I'm still alive please. 100x after I'm gone. The difference? We shall see.

[@bobwallace9753]

Building a bot factory is much, much, much simpler than building a car factory. Very few parts. Very few parts to assemble compared to a vehicle. I expect car production to grow rapidly once the next

[@jaydouglas5847]

Heirs.@@theodorehaskins3756

[@mikebailey2970]

Will Tesla train the first bots to build more bots? Seems to be the fastest most cost effective way to ramp up bots biz to 1T just in bots sales

[@ConnectingODots]

In their videos the showed robots assembling another robot. Ir was a clearly staged scene, not that they're doing it, but obviously the idea crossed their mind so they'll probably do it at some stage

[@bobwallace9753]

There are some very simple 'pick and place' jobs in factories that are likely to be the first places T-bots will be used. Right now humans take parts from stamping presses and put them on carts. The robotic carts take the parts to another station where humans take those parts from the carts and place them where assembly robots can pick them up. There are two very easy jobs for T-bots.

[@andrasbiro3007]

When Tesla announced the humanoid robot, about 2 seconds after seeing the first image, I threw away all of my valuation models, and never bothered to make new ones. As a sci-fi fan and futurist, I immediately understood the consequences. And as a Tesla fan, I immediately understood that it's a done deal, all of the necessary pieces already exist inside Tesla. Calculating anything is useless, as all the numbers you'll get are absurdly large. And on top of that longer term the bot will simply break economics and the concept of money. So the value of Tesla is infinite and zero at the same time. Either I'll be filthy rich, or money won't matter at all. Also important to note that when I say the TAM is infinite, I mean it literally. Once robots build other robots, their numbers will grow exponentially. And the growth won't stop at 8 billion. There's always more useful work to do. As we are no longer bound to Earth, we have to change the scale we are thinking on. We currently are able to regulate large rivers, and build dams on them to make lots of power. With intelligent robots (not necessarily humanoid), we can do the same with stars. The concept is similar, doesn't require and fancy tech (essentially mirrors and solar panels), only the scale is enormous. But scale is exactly where robots help. With exponentially growing their numbers they can reach any scale in a short time. And that's just one example. For more I highly recommend Isaac Arthur's channel, and especially the Megastructures series.

[@muktobro]

Can't wait to see AI DAY 3

[@throttlebuff]

I work doing facilities automation for Marshal Space Flight Center and automation is great as long as you maintain B it. we have crews working 247 performing maintenance on the system. Stuffing breaks down all the time even with preventive maintenance. Let me tell you that getting funding to fix things isn’t the same as getting funding on the front end. We have things over a year out needing repair

[@throttlebuff]

I often think a design flaw for us is our knees should bend backwards. Why would they go the same. I want to know if my theory is wrong

[@craigruchman7007]

It’s easy to understand the exponential growth of Tesla, what’s hard to understand is why the stock goes nowhere.

[@codytownsend3259]

The fact that tesla doesn't make money u mean?

[@lostandconfused26]

government suppression, they have been harrassing elon since he bought twitter. the media got the memo, any small bad news, they blow it up like its the end of the world. look at the media say ev are not selling, where the truth is tesla evs the only one selling well, nobody wants to buy any other evs brands.

[@craigruchman7007]

@@codytownsend3259 Tesla makes money

[@snookmeister55]

It's fairly priced based upon current revenue, even some future revenues.

[@bobwallace9753]

The big reason is that many/most analysts treat Tesla as only a car company. The stock value is likely to take a significant jump up as the energy business starts impacting profits in an obvious way. Retail investors, in general, have a better understanding of where the company is heading and are willing to pay for the potential future.

[@m_sedziwoj]

24:00 how many? When cost of work go down, it will open new opportunities which was not possible because of cost of workers.

[@ConnectingODots]

Definitely. Demand will be virtually endless

[@callmebigpapa]

In Kunshan they replaced 60,000 workers with robots. Tesla building, testing, deploying internal just boils down to less friction.

[@ConnectingODots]

Do you have a link to that? if so,please send 🙏

[@toksogun2581]

One thing not addresses is UBI without addressing worker displacement the model breaks down. Who is going to buy all those Toyotas or Teslas when most people are out of work?

[@bru512]

Manufacturers adoption of bots? Going to be very scary for CFO's to plunk down billions of borrowed CapEx @ 6+% on an entirely new concept. Much easier to sign 1 - 5 year leases where Tesla will be held accountable for Service Level Agreements (SLA).

[@vincewestin]

Tesla doesn’t want to sell them. Only leases, at least for the first 3 years.

[@bru512]

@@vincewestin If Tesla doesn't want to sell them and customer's want to lease them, it sounds like win-win!

[@ConnectingODots]

@bru512 That's exactly what i suggested, Robots as a service, hiring them just like human workers. Fully agree!

[@davidsuzukiispolpot]

I think they will sell the robots but license the software, just like a robotaxi fleet.

[@kylebeetham3679]

I work in the horticulture industry, we import people from around the world to pick, grade and pack fruit. Robots will transform everything

[@ConnectingODots]

Definitely!

[@derrickstableford8152]

Having installed automatic inspection equipment in the past. Success will also be a reflection of company ethos. Where the human is re-assigned and doesn’t lose their job, they are more likely to accept them. Once saw a company tell the inspectors they were being made redundant before the machines were installed. Every day I had to rebuild the machines, from the vandalism of the previous shift. Wasn’t a good result.

[@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck]

Purchaser failed to roboticize dyscompetent managers first.

[@PerryThePlatypus3]

TSLA is the younger generations AAPL level growth opportunity, might even be bigger.

[@balaji-kartha]

Good job 👍👏

[@kevtheobald]

I do believe Tesla will deliver impressive robots. Absolutely, their other businesses will help test and develop the Teslabots and will benefit the company in many ways. I do think the pace will be fast for development until they hit that last few percent of development to hit their goals. Tesla, as with other companies, often find that last few stages of development are the hardest. I would push the Teslabots being ready for customers off to 2028. I do think Tesla and maybe SpaceX using Teslabots in many places will happen sooner, because it will give them a cost advantage while proving what the Teslabots can do. The Tesla Semi took longer to get going but appears tp be worth the wait. The Cybertruck took longer to get going, but seems to be worth the wait. Teslabots for customers will take longer than many are hoping, but will be worth the wait.

[@z4zuse]

13:17 that would give a mass walk-out by a press on a button possible.

[@jonrumney743]

It’s the military, that are going to want the 3 gen 😎

[@emitindustries8304]

Years ago, the Japanese were doing this, the near complete automation of several factories. For the same reasons, to make more money. The out of work employees protested, and said that unemployed people don't buy the stuff that's made by machines. The factory owners realized that they had created a serious dilemma, and switched back to people making stuff for people. If robots would buy stuff, then that would be ideal. What robots would buy, or just steal, or make, would be weapons, to eliminate their masters. "BWAAA-HAA-HA!" says the evil robot overlords. "No more 'fleshies'* ruling us. To the rendering plant with you!" *a derogatory name for humans

[@rexcowan9209]

When these robots do dangerous work such as rescues from fires, diving into water deeper than divers, mining works and rescuing.

[@oddvarsand5568]

Excellence my friend! Keep up the good work 👍🛫🚀

[@Professor-Scientist]

Wow, this situation illustrates the classic case of the rich getting richer while the poor become even poorer. It's a clear example of wealth disparity. It's mainly private companies that will benefit massively, whilst working class are out of the work. Would be cool if the money is shared.

[@ramonmichaud3004]

I think Tesla Bot production numbers are going to blow people's minds.

[@yvonnereed167]

I love Tesla, but, I am yet to be convinced that the bot is close to being ready for mass production which many on KZbin are implying if not directly saying. I think 2026 is potentially doable because it’s Tesla we are talking about but I still think it is very optimistic. One big hurdle yet to be solved is to have actuators fast enough to stay upright on uneven surfaces or if they are bumped/pushed over. It is still moving fairly slowly even with the latest upgrade in actuators. I think it won’t be hard for Tesla to develop the AI system to quickly calibrate proprioception (knowing where it is in space) but it’s limb speed and overall design for agility still looks like it needs work before it could reliably cope with anything but a flat surface without trip hazards or anything that could bump into it.

[@obmenidei]

Imagine that federal government will levy a 25% tax of all robot labor that replaces human labor. There is no other way to support those job losses

[@yougeo]

Tesla like Rockefeller has always known one of the keys to maximum profitability is to control the pieces from the ground to the customer. And one of the pieces that Tesla still does not control is a human manufacturer and Optimus will change that. Tesla already controls most of the major component manufacturing processes to create the Tesla car and the ones they don't are just too small for them to bother with but eventually they absorb them all. And they will do that with the robots.

[@vinster8884]

Haven't heard anyone mention the hurdle of labor unions. How does a robot manufacturer work within the rules of labor unions? Im not a fan of unions but, they will resist extinction.

[@jurajkuruc2775]

I think guys are getting ahead of themselves. I can't imagine how replacing complexity of human worker is easier than solving FSD.

[@jurajkuruc2775]

@alexp.6406 Sure, nuclear fusion is 'pretty much solved' as well

[@Lakerman13]

The way Tesla can take Demo to Mass Production is why I'm so high on Optimus & Tesla stock exploding thereafter!!

[@fernmr]

Understand that robots will not take away human jobs. Robotization is just another stage in the historic cycle of industrialization. Every year a new machine appears to replace a human, and even then there is a lack of workers. This happens because the workforce is promoted to positions supervising machines. So employment will not decrease by 100x, but human productivity will increase by 1000x.

[@Christian-fx9ur]

I think we should wait till it actually starts happening before we make predictions. When they first developed a computer that could play chess there was a lot of buzz that robots would be doing all the hard labor in a few years. That was MANY decades ago. It's very possible that we are on the seeming verge of a breakthrough in the Tesla bot for the next three or four decades, just like we are perpetually on the verge of real FSD. There are a lot of calculations as to how wonderful, cost saving, etc. the bot will be. That induces a kind of euphoria that clouds the vision. The 4680 battery chemistry still hasn't been worked out. FSD is not anywhere near being ready. The revenue calculations on the bot are being calculated long before there is an actual, fully functioning prototype. What has been created up till now has already been done by others. Check out the robot chef crack eggs, chop vegetables, and cook meals. So far, nothing has been accomplished that hasn't already been done a decade ago. Temper the excitement with rationality.

[@matthewspencer2094]

1: Tesla has factories AND partner manufacturers to work with 2: Tesla has growth so can avoid group labour conflicts 3: Western countries will politically support this to make local manufacturing competitive GM wont be first to use this in their factories. The part suppliers they have in common with Tesla will. GM will still ultimately foot the bill.

[@bru512]

Very logical. However, this transition will be very emotional outside the Muskonomy. Watch for the sparks to fly!

[@JGerbase]

This was a fantastic video. It shows the inevitable.

[@MrFoxRobert]

Thank you!

[@greggary7217]

I’m all about AI robotics & I’m a Tesla shareholder. The scenario painted here is lovely and broadly it’s a decent stab at a roadmap, but, competition aside… Current workers will just quietly fade into the woodwork as Optimus takes the positions next to them? No. It’s going to be disruptive to humans and they are going to be prickly at best. I *hope Elon has the sense to be extremely generous with severance and retraining payouts & the transition will ultimately happen but it seems unlikely to me to be all share price roses. He’s going to need to help lessors deal with their own people as well, and it won’t be cheap. It’s called “disruptive” for a reason. Shit is going be disruptive to more than the competition. It’s going to be huge, but the numbers and pace shown here imo are somewhat optimistic.

[@ronmatthews2164]

Tesla to Mars ❤😂🎉

[@clnelson321]

The profit margin on Optimus will be insane. You can be sure that Neuralink will be able to "link" with the robot for edge cases in robotic learning.

[@TheCaphits]

If you've ever played factorio, you know things....change...when you unlock robots.

[@Mr_Game_And_Walk]

The problem is that costs will come down so much that it may drive ALL prices down to the point were AI robots may simply break even.

[@lostandconfused26]

robots don't strike or need health insurance, benefits.

[@tibiamademedoit6486]

Ur amazing!

[@kevinnugent6530]

I'm interested to see how it will unfold when union's fight like hell to keep robots off of the job.

[@qwazy01]

@12:00 It was also obvious to me which business model makes sense short and long term, partly due to avoiding "right to repair" that comes with ownership as well continual revenue an lower barrier to entry. I haven't finished the video yet, but do you answer the question of which businesses are included/excluded at the lease price point that you predict, because at first glance it appears that saving start at $125k+, but I think there is more to this answer? If not, can you please?

[@qwazy01]

Thanks, you covered what I was looking for. Great video 👍

[@mmast7554]

I haven't seen anything on maintenance and upkeep