The 7 key swing states of the 2024 presidential election

[@redcapote4760]

The graphics and editing is top notch. Love it.

[@rodrigoaaron1866]

Totally

[@utopianna]

Great explanation with the history and weight by each state. Nicely paced to give us time to absorb. Free from political bias.

[@marythorpe928]

Vote blue... Vote Harris & Walz

[@brockfg]

@@marythorpe928nice job ruining the spirit of the original comment

[@bordedup546]

There isn't going to be much political bias when they're just reading past results lol

[@marythorpe928]

@@brockfg Just giving my opinion on wheo is best to be President

[@quonomonna8126]

Pennsylvania is called the keystone state It's on the license plates

[@VS257]

Pennsylvania is also the namesake address of the White House. If you win Pennsylvania, you win the White House

[@fergalhennessy775]

Nate silver is gonna be called Nate Plastic pretty soon 🤣🤣🤣

[@miAIFI]

Why is T.J Miller teaching me about the election

[@alexanderdantonio8999]

Hahahaha...exactly.

[@bottombarrelbudgetfilms1854]

TJ Miller if he was into non biased electoral news instead of being a jerk lol

[@thesoundsmith]

Doesn't sound to me like he IS...

[@soton5teve]

01:43 thank humanism he doesn't teach math 😅😅😅 "a little less than 1%." It was 0.3% !

[@flaviospadavecchia5126]

I pledge allegiance to the flag of Pennsylvania and to the Republic for which it stands.

[@rocknrollboise]

"I pledge allegiance to the flag of the divided state of Pennsylvania, and to the Republic for which it stands."

[@deansicking6257]

PA majority decides who gets to be president dang

[@XXman23]

No, you just don't like how people vote in other states

[@OctPSfever]

Yea. Its insane.

[@deansicking6257]

@@XXman23 im not hating on anything im just saying what I think the case is

[@Eldeecue]

Nah. We get Georgia and Nevada and we're still good.

[@NYCybertruck]

TJ miller really cleaned up his act. Happy for him.

[@mahadabdirisaqali5777]

Thank you for this informative video

[@ATMOSK1234]

Cool to see my county get a shout out

[@sucraloseUncle]

go vote

[@jaguarmemez]

Vote Please and do your research too ofc 💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽

[@tior598]

@@jaguarmemezvoted trump just to cancel you out!

[@jaguarmemez]

@@tior598 thanks I’m already planning to vote for him lmfao

[@newjordanera]

Great presentation

[@onelemonadestand]

thanks for this btw -- super clear and accessible

[@kelliethorman5953]

Do your OWN RESEARCH. Listen yourself to what the candidates say. What are their policies? Don’t let someone else tell you how to vote!

[@vender68]

welcome iowa for joining the elite swing state

[@j.f.fisher5318]

You forgot Iowa ;)

[@dpgreene]

Iowa is solid blue actually.

[@wa-bu3ke]

@@dpgreeneLol we’ll see

[@Godessofwisdom]

@@wa-bu3ke💙😎

[@wa-bu3ke]

@@Godessofwisdom ❤😎

[@Matt67012]

Unimaginable blue cope

[@DrProfX]

Wait?! Is this the guy who was predicting 2016?!! 😂😂😂

[@ballwizz23]

In surprised VA isn't in there. It was always a swing state growing up

[@donalexander6674]

We've matured and don't vote for as many fascists now.

[@kevinsmith1807]

​@@donalexander6674🤡

[@ballwizz23]

@donalexander6674 Funny thing is I genuinely don't know which candidate you're referring to. That's how bad this is.

[@didiiyoho2086]

@@ballwizz23you’re only playing ignorant lol. There’s only 1 fascist running for president now

[@happyapathy22]

​@@ballwizz23How is Harris possibly fascist?

[@erinhuang1563]

Would 538 talk about the Selzer poll and her methodology

[@onelemonadestand]

Maricopa County should go ahead and be the capital of the US

[@user-lg1oo6ev7k]

Why don't you talk about how the popular vote doesn't matter only the Electoral vote.

[@Fjaloeat1]

You forgot to add Iowa

[@5DogMa]

Interesting how the some of the red turned blue in the 2020 election which tells us the people were sick and fed-up of Trump. Let's hope they remember that this year.

[@mr.x817]

Lol hilarious take considering Prez. Trump turnout was higher in 2020 than in 2016. You gotta stop smoking. A larger percentage of the party isn’t sick of him. Can’t wait to vote in Pennsylvania this Tuesday 😊.

[@christophergill871]

Trump ❤2024 🇺🇸

[@kevinsmith1807]

🤡

[@BabyFarkMcGee]

Weird how he was winning all day, and then somehow lost at 3 am 😂

[@mr.x817]

@@BabyFarkMcGee you know what’s crazy Hill*ry said he was a fraudulent president no one ever called her an Election Den*er. Trump said something & liberal media tried to brainwash people against him.

[@jackclemens25]

Why not Florida? I thought Florida was like Pennsylvania? If you win it it’s huge

[@Eldeecue]

Florida is more or less the Alabama Peninsula now. Even right now the Republicans have an 800,000 early vote advantage against the Democrats.

[@hp4415]

Because they talk about swinging states and Florida isn’t one. Florida always or almost always vote red.

[@jackclemens25]

@ Florida had voted blue twice as much as N.C. in recent history yet N.C. is on this list. That’s why I’m confused

[@alexhanna2445]

This is very helpful but just remember that the electoral college should be abolished as it suppresses votes for both democrats and republicans and often picks the winner that is not the popular vote winner.

[@KennyChesty]

Wisconsin voter here. Early voting has been high and if the primaries have been any indication, I think we'll be quite blue.

[@stevep5408]

50% of Pennsylvania counties have legal cases over questionable registrations? This will mean if Pennsylvania doesn't have a clear(beyond the margin of error) winner the court cases could last for months after the election?

[@GRIM0IREG00CH]

Did anyone see the 538 forecast jump from 50/49 to 53/47 overnight? The fuck happened? I thought Iowa would’ve kept things even tighter

[@pavelow235]

behind paywall, explain.... 53 harris / 47 trump???

[@GRIM0IREG00CH]

@ nah, it is 53 Trump 47 Harris. Trump has had a slight lead in national polls that has been dwindling amid controversies, and yesterday it was 50 Trump 49 Harris, but it has just rubber banded back for some reason

[@Subby808]

“Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.” - JD Vance (op-ed for The New York Times) “I can’t stomach Trump.” - JD Vance (2015) “America’s Hitler” - JD Vance (2016) “I’m a Never Trump guy.” - JD Vance (2016) “My god, what an idiot.” - JD Vance (2021)

[@lilarrin1220]

I have a suspicion that 538 has been overcorrecting towards trump ever since they screwed up in 2016 (and will eventually swing into overcorrecting towards democrats)

[@edfromchowderheads1312]

@@Subby808bro chill, you been copy n pasting that shit everywhere

[@nikoleacosta2222]

abcnews used your video on their website

[@user-rm5rz2zh8k]

538 is owned by ABC😂

[@JamesSoetun-j5x]

Please, World need US

[@sirjanska9575]

3:49 HE REFERENCED THINGS I KNOW!!!

[@lasalleman6792]

I'm thinking Harris will squeeze by, electoral collegewise. Damned close in some states.

[@jackdavies8127]

Poor guy presenting this looks like he has bad insomnia

[@MarioBracy]

sKIstYLeS:cKiCkcTtaND

[@AntiFakeNukes]

On the polls table of your page in projects.fivethirtyeight, can you explain why very often we can see a double line for the same poll for same DATES, same SAMPLE of same TYPE, same POLSTER and SPONSOR, same RESULT, and same NET RESULT ? For example : "Nov. 1-2 2,463 LV AtlasIntel Harris 48% 50% Trump Trump +2 Nov. 1-2 2,463 LV AtlasIntel Harris 47% 49% Trump 1% Stein Trump +2 So this poll is it counted twice in the average ? Thank you.

[@samuelsirota2816]

the one poll is a outlier from the Des Moines Register-sponsored (left leaning) emerson college just put out a poll saturday with a 53% to 43% 10 point margin for trump.. stop coping Iowa is red

[@770WT]

Are only Right leaning polls ok ?

[@adilmohammed6897]

The same poll in 2016 was the first one to give iowa to Trump by a big margin than to Hillary when all polls thought Hillary would carry ig. Was it left leaning then too?

[@samuelsirota2816]

@@770WT i think alot of pollsters are coping

[@Joe-sw9nk]

Ioway has a chip on the shoulder attitude.

[@Eldeecue]

You know Selzer was the pollster that dared to show him winning by 7 or 8 points in 2016 and 2020, right?

[@NstopYoon-ow8cj]

왜 민주당은 모두 변두리 바닷가 지역에서만 우세하지 공화당은 중심부를 장악하고

[@thepuppygoesup]

It has to do with the population density in those areas. The center of the country is more rural since people are more spread out and those residents tend to vote for more republican candidates. Urban residents tend to vote more democratic, and since the coasts have a lot more big cities, that's why those areas show up blue

[@Cyynapse]

iowa coming in from the top rope

[@mrclarkson3812]

NC for Trump/Vance .. NC IS DOWN ,BUT NOT OUT!

[@JourneyofOne971]

which of these states have abortion rights issues on the ballot as well? That will make a difference in a few places, I'd imagine

[@Eldeecue]

Abortion referendums actually typically HELP GOP candidates that share a ballot with it. It gives pro choice Republicans an excuse to show up and vote for Republicans.

[@mathai5456]

Pennsylvania is the most important state for trump. Its the closest race. Yet lean toward trump in most poll. If he fail to win Pennsylvania, he is almost certainly losing the entire election

[@JAYY_JAYY]

I’m disappointed and sad for the USA . This country is taking steps back with Donnie . Absurd how much of the country just ignores everything he says and does .

[@TransKidRevolution]

Cry more😭😭😭

[@kevinsmith1807]

🤡

[@michaelschaefer1904]

Read about David daleiden.

[@6milhõesEm5AnosÉLorota]

It's about his politics , not his person.

[@Yungie201]

I'm disappointed that you want a repeat of the last 4 years. Keep being ignorant and cry some more.

[@parrotletsrunearth1173]

What lies by a major pollster.

[@Robert-t1m3p]

Be ready for some surprising shock's and terrifying time's 😮

[@mr.x817]

First time voter and I’ll be supporting Trump in Pennsylvania. Hope he wins.

[@jezkerjamez7110]

Don’t you mean 8? Apparently Iowa decided to show up and say “hold my beer”

[@samuelsirota2816]

the one poll from the Des Moines Register-sponsored (left leaning) emerson college just put out a poll saturday with a 53% to 43% 10 point margin for trump.. stop coping Iowa is red

[@someonerandom704]

@@samuelsirota2816 alright, here's what we'll do. If Iowa goes blue then I'm gonna come back to these comments and say I told ya so. If it goes red then I'm just gonna not respond to anything you say. We shall see in the ultimate poll!

[@jacksonperez5615]

That is an unbelievably fake poll, the same day Emerson (a left leaning pollster) gave a +10.5 to trump

[@hishomie1]

One outlier means nothing. Iowa is red.

[@vishalthefirst4140]

​@@samuelsirota2816 let's see bro. On Tuesday we'll know. Even if Trump wins by 3 points, it means he losing the swing states.

[@zacharyflint7901]

A video with video!

[@rhhamlin08]

PRAY 🙏 FOR 🇺🇸 AMERICA AND VOTE ❤

[@hugomarquez3189]

There’s an eighth now!

[@JosemiguelIbarra-uz4ls]

7 state to vote harris or trump Joe biden and obama join up with Harris against trump. P.s 17 year ago mr mcmahon wrestlemania 23 after hair cut mcmahon people laugh at shaves

[@Subby808]

“Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.” - JD Vance (op-ed for The New York Times) “I can’t stomach Trump.” - JD Vance (2015) “America’s Hitler” - JD Vance (2016) “I’m a Never Trump guy.” - JD Vance (2016) “My god, what an idiot.” - JD Vance (2021)

[@hydrogenbombb]

TRUMP 2024

[@kelliethorman5953]

And then he did his research…. Just as everyone else should do. JD states he believed the fake news for too long. Did his own research and changed his mind. Do your own research. Don’t let someone tell you how to vote!

[@kevinsmith1807]

🤡

[@Lukas-lp2fz]

Trump 2024

[@Joe-sw9nk]

No Furher in White House

[@BerlinBULL]

TRUMP ❤❤❤

[@boblatkey7160]

I'll vote for a woman who passed the bar as opposed to a man who keeps lowering it.

[@seanm3226]

Hilarious.

[@6milhõesEm5AnosÉLorota]

Lol

[@robinfischer5008]

MADAM PRESIDENT HARRIS FOR AMERICA!!!! ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️

[@michaeljcross87]

Lol you wish. Trump already won. Come back and look at your comment Tuesday night.

[@robinfischer5008]

@michaeljcross87 I think all of us educated Americans will!!!! We'll ALL BE LAUGHING AT CHUMP AND MAGA, GOING RIGHT DOWN THE TIOLET!!! 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@aynehkear]

AMERICA NEEDS TRUMP FOR PEACE & PROSPERITY❤❤❤

[@l.m.l.ymy_lil_lovely7055]

Ew

[@nannyg3313]

BS

[@jackiebinns6205]

What is going on today you nit wit idc about 2020 or 2016😡😷

[@JOELROBERT100]

Connecticut is currently in Republican zone

[@SEMNbronco]

MN for Trump, turning MN right

[@Subby808]

“Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.” - JD Vance (op-ed for The New York Times) “I can’t stomach Trump.” - JD Vance (2015) “America’s Hitler” - JD Vance (2016) “I’m a Never Trump guy.” - JD Vance (2016) “My god, what an idiot.” - JD Vance (2021)

[@SEMNbronco]

@ too late, everyone I know is voting Trump.

[@Subby808]

@@SEMNbronco “Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.” - JD Vance (op-ed for The New York Times) “I can’t stomach Trump.” - JD Vance (2015) “America’s Hitler” - JD Vance (2016) “I’m a Never Trump guy.” - JD Vance (2016) “My god, what an idiot.” - JD Vance (2021)

[@Joe-sw9nk]

No dictators in America

[@SEMNbronco]

@ I want a candidate that was elected through a democratic process. Trump 2024

[@MarioBracy]

2.2k/tOo pOInt tO sOMebODieS aROunD

[@user-ou4ho3qk7m]

MEN THAT RESPECT WOMEN DONT VOTE FOR RAPIEST! 💙

[@TransKidRevolution]

Learn how to spell

[@michaelschaefer1904]

Who is Tara Reade?

[@wheelmanstan]

cool, vote Trump

[@jks612]

I'm sorry. How did you decide on this list? Can you explain why certain, important states that flip and have decided elections aren't on the list? I'm looking at Florida and feeling like it should at least be mentioned in this conversation.

[@seerthewind]

Why? Florida polling has shown Trump ahead by five points. He also won that state twice by similar margins. Not to mention early ballot returns are very high for Republicans.

[@FuadMohamed-k7o]

"Who would willingly submit to the indignity that the Palestinians in Gaza and the west bank have been subjected to for decades. Gaza will decide this election.

[@drstew1]

What joy awaits America this time next week. Madam President Elect will the be the fresh start this country needs .

[@rickjames1179]

Yup she’s gonna have a lot of joy while we all suffer Nothing gonna change another 4 years of this economy is crazy Trump 2024❤❤❤❤❤ Americans first

[@TransKidRevolution]

😂😂😂

[@LordVader89]

🤮🤮🤮

[@kevinsmith1807]

She's done nothing her whole life 🤡...

[@drstew1]

@ sorry to hear your life is shit and over. There is always anther way…get on with it and stop blaming others for your shit choices.

[@andrzej2848]

„HARRIS 2024 & HARRIS 2028!! WALZ 2032 & WALZ 2036!”

[@Quiriosjeux]

Waltz will be too old in 2032, come on, we don't vote for people who are too old!

[@Lshi11]

Not a chance!

[@wowkiee]

You are in the dream

[@AlexCunradi]

Please no. I like Walz, but in 2032 he'll be far too old to be president. We need to stop electing so many old people.

[@parkersutherlin7450]

Raphael Warnock 2032

[@yuswoqc6594]

Trump and Harris is the American .. I m Indonesian .. I think the world need Trump

[@dirkboch128]

Stop thinking you're not good at it.

[@yuswoqc6594]

@dirkboch128 a freedom of speech, please.. 🙏.. US policy's affected to the world

[@netsiteing]

hope that Republicans are doing enough to rally their base to come our and vote ... the party that will mobilise their base to turn up and vote, especially in marginal/swing states, will win ... shocking that historically 25-35% of eligible Americans don't vote

[@Joseph70663]

538. Proud to talk about the polls. Knowing full well how poor the methodology is in many of them. EVERYTHING is TIED???? Gutless bullshit I can get anywhere. Thank-you for nothing.

[@soton5teve]

IF YOU CAN VOTE EARLY DO 🔵⚪️📝🗳🗽 🎈🤡🚽💩 Democracy is on the ballot

[@mr.pizzamarlon]

*WHICH LEADER WILL YOU CHOOSE: YAHWEH OR HUMANS?* I voted on April 4, 2021-my baptism. My vote was for Yahweh, the living God in the Bible, Jehovah God, No human can save us. Armageddon is near and no world leader on earth can bring you salvation. Each person is being watched and They (Jehovah God and his Son Jesus) are looking to see where trust is being placed: God's Kingdom or human governments. May everyone wake up when they hear the global ceasefire and 1 Thessalonians 5: 3 is fulfilled.

[@Pasdare]

russian intelegence will win this time trump will win

[@KhawmTiti]

How is Wisconsin became a swing state . I don't see a lot of swing people here in the state

[@TransKidRevolution]

Because you are in a bubble

[@KhawmTiti]

​@@JSSBBB😂

[@KhawmTiti]

​@@TransKidRevolutionno because I'm not a Trump koolaid drinker

[@seerthewind]

The last two elections each candidate won by less than a one percent. Wisconsin is the definition of a swing state. Sounds like you need to get out and know more people. Or you live in a very urban/rural area.

[@jacksonperez5615]

You people actually believe Iowa is in play. Y’all sound like republicans back in 2020 lmao

[@DJ_Patent]

First!!

[@johngonzales6510]

You can now add Iowa to the list

[@CT--eo2vv]

Harris wins all

[@adamwheelerproductions1607]

You mean 10, right? Harris has a very realistic shot of flipping Florida, Texas, and even Iowa now with the new poll.

[@AraP24]

😂😂😂 nice joke. Trump is easily winning Florida and Texas and 5/7 swing states.

[@joshuac8571]

Not a chance of any of that.

[@adamwheelerproductions1607]

@@AraP24 Whatever makes you feel better, buddy. I'll be over here in reality if you need anything.

[@TransKidRevolution]

😂😂😂

[@XxMayhem88]

Florida will be a close call but it will eventually go to Trump

[@TheSaltyAdmiral]

Iowa is back in play after the recent shock poll!

[@samuelsirota2816]

the one poll from the Des Moines Register-sponsored (left leaning) emerson college just put out a poll saturday with a 53% to 43% 10 point margin for trump.. stop coping Iowa is red

[@ngolong4070]

@@samuelsirota2816the word left leaning is doing some heavy lifting here when the paper leans moderate conservative

[@arcanelore0]

@@samuelsirota2816 It has never been left leaning, it has predicted the last 8 results within a 2 point margin. Both republican or democrat. I still expect iowa to go red but you are talking from your puckered bung hole

[@crashn111]

In his three-hour interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, Donald Trump dug in on his false claims about voting, election fraud and his loss in the 2020 presidential election. Rogan helped encourage some of these claims.

[@priyadesilva8871]

2020- Suddenly, at midnight, poll stations paused. The next day, people woke up and found out that the red wave had weirdly tuned blue!!

[@robertmusil1107]

They aren't false claims. Everyone knows democrats cheat as hard as they can. That's why they don't want a voter ID.