The Best Semiconductor Stocks | Finding the Next NVIDIA

Want to know how to find the best semiconductor stocks? Finding the next NVIDIA means first establishing a list of semiconductor stocks which can be pulled from the three largest semiconductor ETFs out there. Some investors might be tempted to invest in Intel stock which is beaten down, but a closer look at where Intel expects to see growth come from isn't promising. The best semiconductor stocks are up and coming and may be smaller in size. When NVIDIA had their IPO in 1999, their market cap was just $600 million. So maybe finding the next NVIDIA means looking at smaller names out there such as the universe of stocks found in the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF as opposed to the larger names found in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF or the iShares Semiconductor ETF. This is the first video in a planned series on investing in semiconductors.
RESEARCH PIECES USED IN THIS VIDEO:
1. Finding the Best Semiconductor Stocks
www.nanalyze.com/2023/01/find...
2. The Right Time to Sell NVIDIA Stock
www.nanalyze.com/2022/02/time...
CHAPTERS:
Intro
How do I find a list of semiconductor stocks?
Types of semiconductor stocks
The three major semiconductor ETFs
Investing in Intel stock
ETFs or stock picking? Finding the next NVIDIA stock
Two semiconductor stocks on our radar
Conclusion
ABOUT US:
This video is brought to you by Nanalyze, a media and research firm founded by finance professionals with decades of experience. We share insights about #DisruptiveTechnology #stocks in a language that is future-proof and easy to understand.
Read all the Nanalyze Premium articles you'd like for free! Sign up for a 30-day trial of our monthly subscription with no strings attached: www.nanalyze.com/become-a-nan...
DISCLAIMER: Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with, along with independently researching and verifying, any information contained within our KZbin videos or on our website, whether for the purpose of making an investment or otherwise.
#semiconductorstocks #semiconductors

[@joepiv]

Before you start reading the comments you need to subscribe to our channel using the below link. Violators will be persecuted.👮 kzbin.info

[@keeponkeepingon983]

Turns out the next Nvidia was Nvidia

[@Nanalyze]

Good point

[@bills1779]

Great disection !! Love it, new subscriber 👍

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you! We really appreciate the kind words and all the comments :)

[@gloriabeckley7464]

Learned about GICS today . Thanks!

[@Nanalyze]

You're most welcome! It's a really useful tool for institutional investors and retail should know about it as well.

[@shabz_]

Great channel keep it up

[@Nanalyze]

Really appreciate the feedback, we will!

[@christophergilcrest7418]

been here for awhile watching the channel grow slowly, keep up these great videos and I'm sure you guys will blow up at any time. Could we get a $DNA video soon since the marketcap has been decimated? Or maybe just a general video on genomics. Thank a lot!

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you for the kind words Christopher! We're seeing some traction on KZbin so we'll continue to utilize this channel with the current format of video which seems well received. We'll start working on a $DNA update just as soon as they file a 10-K for 2022. Regarding genomics, that's a very broad label, but we often cover things like gene editing, synbio, and anything to do with sequencing (i.e. long-reads). Our cadence for any given stock/theme is about once a year to cut out the noise, but some names/themes we'll cover more often based on interest. Thank you for the support!

[@GM4ThePeople]

Ginkgo warrants down to 20 cents: pick up half a million of those for a hundred k, chuck 'em in a tax-advantaged account, & give the money printer half a chance to get turned on again: I think they have a decent chance of coming good in the end! Although current management still bugs me but wutevz. The royalty streamer model can get fluffed up to rich multiples in a good market.

[@christophergilcrest7418]

@@GM4ThePeople Could you give me a TLDR of why you'd choose warrants over stock? I currently hold the stock but always wondered about the warrants.

[@GM4ThePeople]

@@christophergilcrest7418 Leverage. E.g. w the 100k in the envisaged example, & the stock at 1.52, you could buy ~66,000 shares. 500 is ~7.57x greater than 66. You yourself could calculate the returns for stock & warrants (11.5 Calls) in 3 buy & hold 4-year scenarios: DNA goes down 90%, stays the same, or 10xes. In the first 2 cases the warrants are a wipeout (100% loss), but in the 3rd case they expire 3.50 in the money (500k worth 1.75M). A 17.5x return vs. a 10x on the stock. But a 4th example: if DNA 50x-es (1.52 -> 76 = +4,900% profit) - within the realm of conceivability, if not possibility?? - the warrants are 64.50 itm, a 32.25M position at expiry, a +16,025% profit. All disclaimers apply, right? GL&HF. o/ * edit: on top of generic disclaimers, should add that they'd very likely be called for redemption before DNA moons to 76. You can try to tease the warrant terms out of the prospectus: this can be a be a bit inchoate & tough sledding at times.

[@Nanalyze]

@GM4ThePeople Retail investors have no business using leverage in such a manner. It's extremely risky as you've pointed out and we strongly strongly advise our readers and subscribers to stay away from such strategies with a ten-foot pole. Comments like "if DNA 50X" have no place here. We're risk averse investors, not speculators.

[@tagsoneveryting]

Really good Video.

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you for the feedback!

[@shafx1987]

Thanks for another video. As weird as it sounds, its quite soothing listening to you haha. The only Semi im in at the moment is $INDI which im trying to build up slowly. Only got a small amount. What you guys think about $INDI anyways as someone has mentioned it int he comment section.

[@Nanalyze]

That soothing feeling is what leads to you eventually opening up your wallet and joining the most real investment community out there as a Nanalyze Premium annual subscriber. Noted your interest on INDI which has been raised a number of times. We'll review it along with other contenders in a coming piece. Thank you for the comment!

[@xercesss]

Great video, thanks!

[@Nanalyze]

Shore thang pardner. ;)

[@xercesss]

I didn’t get it but it was fun. Regarding IoT what about Samsara (in software)? I think you’ve done a video but a refresher will be great this year. Speaking about new year, all the best for Nanalyze.

[@Nanalyze]

Good question on Samsara! Their GICS code is 45103010 - so they're classified as application software. Given their SaaS business model it makes sense, even if they offer hardware. Analysts who choose these classifications will dig into this stuff deeply because if they incorrectly classify the company, the CEO of said company will be calling MSCI or S&P 500 to complain ;) Our last piece on Samsara was in Sept (www.nanalyze.com/2022/09/samsara-stock-plummets/) so we'll probably revisit them in fall of this year. Given we cover a large universe of stocks our cadence is usually annual checkups.

[@Nanalyze]

@xercesss All the best to you as well Guillaume!

[@prasvasu4217]

Hello, Thank you so much for this very valuable information. The semiconductor industry is very confusing due to the lack of clarity in the value chain (Silicon to chip) and the complicated/capital intensive manufacturing processes (buzzwords like etching) that goes around. I've been averse to semiconductors for this reason and your video has been so helpful. I'm new to the channel and would like to know what kind of category do equipment manufacturers like ASML fall into based on the categories discussed? Also what is the deal with the so called 'chip shortages' last year? Are understanding supply bottlenecks in the value chain and the value chain itself useful from an investing standpoint.

[@Nanalyze]

Agree that it's very confusing with lots of buzzwords and nomenclature most people (like us) don't understand. If we were to answer your questions, we'd just use Google and probably not add much to that. Others brought up ASML and they're a large firm and not on our radar (because of our size targets). Thank you for the comment, glad you found it useful, and stay tuned for some related videos coming out on the semi space.

[@terryklender4209]

Thanks Joe.

[@joepiv]

You're welcome Terry!

[@PremiumCollector.]

You guys saw today a year ago! Informed call. Wish i had put more in SMH in 2020 when we saw the headache semi shortages caused. I really want to see the Nanalyze portfolio. Until i do, I'll just assume your picks are mine. 😅

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you for the kind words, but a year is a very short time frame. ;) It's very important to not regret past investment decisions as long as they were part of your broader investing strategy. Pick a strategy, make minor refinements over time, don't take on too much risk (preserve capital), and never just keep looking forward. Wealth happens slowly not suddenly. You'll do just fine. As for our portfolio, it's just a bog standard portfolio across 12 investment themes. Lots of familiar names for sure. :)

[@ravimachado4734]

Can you do a review on SMCI-SUPER MICRO COMPUTER?

[@Nanalyze]

We're doing some follow up pieces on the semi industry but can't say if this will be included or not until the piece gets researched ;)

[@joeknight3658]

$INDI is a compelling small cap in my opinion. EV niche, rapid revenue growth (up 147% YoY last quarter) and CEO confident of profitability in late 2023. Mcap ~ $900M with a strategic backlog of $4.3B. I would be intersted to hear your analysis. Thanks for the ongoing high quality content!

[@Nanalyze]

Not sure why this stock is so popular but we'll take a look. Note that it falls below our market cap threshold of a billion dollars but not by too much. Thank you!

[@roohy1360]

@@Nanalyze incase it matters I would also like to hear your thoughts on INDI. thanks.

[@Nanalyze]

@@roohy1360 Noted, thank you!

[@AlphavQuebec]

@@Nanalyze that guy sold 50.000 shares of stock so idk how sure he would be about that profitability

[@joepiv]

@@AlphavQuebec Don't read too much into insider sales! We have a research piece teed up on this btw.

[@GM4ThePeople]

It will be interesting to watch the GICS classifications change over the coming decade. As noted, at some point, the Real Estate sector was birthed out of the Financials, like _Pallas Athene_ jumping fully formed out of Zeus' head. The relative weightings in the S&P 500 of Energy, Utilities & Materials have declined, while "IT" aka Technology has boomed. In a study I did a couple years ago, over a quarter of daily trading value was in Tech, whereas Energy, Materials, RE & Utilities together accounted for only a little over 10%. Surely a rebalancing or re-allocation is in order. I don't see why the Solar value chain, from DQ (the new "Dairy Queen", since Warren gobbled the original up?) to ENPH shouldn't be moved over to Energy (some of the O&G Svcs companies manufacture equipment, so the line is a bit blurry). You could even chuck Materials in with Industrials (B2B - physical), & re-jig what is "discretionary" & what is a "staple" to the zombified bugman consumer. At the least, semis/chips are now such an enormous component of international trade that they could or should constitute a Sector unto themselves.

[@Nanalyze]

Totally agree. Reconfiguring solar to energy seems to make sense. Indeed, lots of discretionary has moved to staples. "Got to get that $17 Starbucks concoction or the day isn't going right + I DESERVE IT" attitudes are why some people in developed markets can't live below their means to eventually escape the rat race.

[@SirBrassknuckles]

I noticed data centers wasn’t on the list of categories to choose from to begin looking for semiconductor businesses. Is there a reason you guys didn’t mention this category?

[@Nanalyze]

Covered here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/gWHOZGh5Z6lglZY

[@BriefNerdOriginal]

Seems a matter of standardized vocabulary and multi-level categorization. ML should be able to do this job quite easily. Of course, if the training dataset is good enough.

[@Nanalyze]

Fidelity found their best performing retail accounts were those people who forgot they had them or died. Knowing when to exit stocks seems to be as important as selecting the right ones. Using rules-based selection methods can work, but then you're introducing a black box when ML enters the room. Then it's just another rules-based ML selection strategy that needs to contend with minimizing turnover in the face of changing information. Maybe a top-tier hedge fund could pull it off, but not your average retail investor.

[@BriefNerdOriginal]

@@Nanalyze the "black box" argument is not that important: in principle, any tool that gives you a slight statistical edge over others is welcome. As for rules-based selection, I'd argue that other methods exist, and different methods can be combined with different strategies pertaining to different conditions... ML is there to categorize fast, recognize these conditions, associate a strategy that has proved to provide a slight edge, and apply the apt method.

[@joepiv]

@@BriefNerdOriginal The world's 15,000 hedge funds managing around $4.5 trillion in assets for their clients are on to ML models. Putting together a new one isn't going to magically generate alpha. When you can't outperform a benchmark, investors will want to know why. So in order to get investors, you will need to back test your strategy against as much historical data as possible - and outperform broader benchmarks. Then, you need to convince potential investors that your algo will show them better returns than the other alternative asset options out there (to include the world's 15,000 hedge funds). It's a great idea, but as we always say - a great idea and twenty bucks won't get you a lap dance at Mustang Sally's these days.

[@joepiv]

@@BriefNerdOriginal Do like your idea of getting a slight edge with some ML insights. That could fly if you could apply it to a more explainable strategy. But around here we try to keep things extremely simple because we're extremely simple people. It's why we joke about having a Romanian fortune teller we hired on Fiver for "that edge." It's about as valid as 75% of the gimmicks Wall Street tries peddling retail investors.

[@eddiegill]

Amd with its Xilinx acquisition

[@Nanalyze]

We touched on that in this piece: www.nanalyze.com/2022/02/time-to-sell-nvidia-stock/

[@Sayilswtor]

Why outright not investing in etfs as rule?

[@Nanalyze]

The primary reason is that we may want to create an ETF around our tech stock portfolio. Including an ETF within an ETF (like ARK Invest does with their 3DP index) creates a double taxation problem which doesn't benefit investors. Good question though, because all investors should consider the benefits of an ETF vs. stock picking. Not all ETFs are created the same.

[@sagebeer]

According to bloomberg 2 days ago they said the price of polysilicon fell by 55% due to over production, even tho the material is in literally everything, its hard to imagine a 'over supply'. Would this effect companys like tsm or not? Because they rly care about the end product.

[@Nanalyze]

You're asking a very good question. How does the price of silicon as a commodity effect the various stakeholders in the semiconductor supply chain? No idea actually. Seems like the producers just cut back production which effects their profits. The companies purchasing the product as input have to be stoked about the falling prices though, right? We'd probably need an industry SME to chime in here with some thoughts.

[@sagebeer]

@@Nanalyze yes producers will be very happy making newer products because of this, lowering the risk of fab plants sence its the first material used in wafers is polysilicon = chips, however now the question is on demand for the end products, if consumers don't buy then i imagine some kind of bottleneck even tho the risk was lowerd. Idk if i should focus more on comodity prices or end product, im currently in comod some what but is in the end product side effecent enough to take advantage? Mostly when looking at smaller companies (and not tsm) All in all im sure this makes spectacular investors like cathie woods look like a genius but me and alot of other people focused on mining stocks arnt quite sold on these fundamentals

[@musaran2]

Polycrystalline silicon is mainly used for solar cells. Chips require purer & monocrystalline silicon, much harder to make. But even then, chip cost is mainly in etching. That is why they don't mind some wafer loss by etching square chips onto round wafers.

[@joepiv]

@@sagebeer Going too deep into technical details can be overwhelming, so we try to keep things very simple. Investing in companies that are minimally exposed to the volatile nature of commodities is something we focus on in our tech portfolio, not so much in our dividend growth portfolio where you'll find names like XOM and CVX. There are many external drivers affecting demand for various types of companies that could probably use a full research piece to explore. It's likely someone has already looked at that as well.

[@joepiv]

@@musaran2 Thank you for the comment! Useful info.

[@dofus5435]

Is it too late to invest in semiconductor ETFs and “ AI oriented “ companies? is the hype priced in as of May 2024 ?

[@Nanalyze]

That's a question lots of people are asking and nobody knows the answer. You can hear both sides argued quite well.

[@eddiegill]

Wolf speed is interesting

[@Nanalyze]

Incoming: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pIPQlpWhjt5sorM

[@bumspanka0927]

I like your channel but how can you do a video on the “best” semiconductor stocks without even mentioning the only company in this entire space with the highest moat (in fact, a virtual monopoly which is expected to last for at least another 8-10 years) and stellar cash flows (albeit somewhat expensive): ASML!! Huge miss my man, so much better than (on another level) all of the other stocks mentioned in this video

[@Nanalyze]

ASML is listed on slide 9 along with 11 other large semiconductor stocks that aren't mentioned. Unfortunately, our videos have time limitations. Sounds like you found your best semiconductor stock and that's great to hear.

[@Timyeahhh]

what about indie Semiconductor ?

[@Nanalyze]

A lot of people mentioned Indie but it fell out using the screening method we used. They appear to be focused on automotive primarily while we prefer industry agnostic platforms/services/products.

[@savvysocialshow7324]

Aren’t intc spinning off MobileMe at a massive discount

[@Nanalyze]

Incoming: www.nanalyze.com/2022/10/mobileye-stock-autonomous-driving/ We'll look to do an update on them again this year, sooner than later.

[@mosswilson]

in terms of growing your channel you could mirror a lot of what ppcian does / did, he grew from the low thousands to 40,000 - brings that personal connection by sharing a lot of what he actually holds, hearing about your google investment was interesting.

[@Nanalyze]

Our KZbin channel is merely meant to drive leads to our subscription product, and it's been working quite well. We'll share small bits of information about the (checks notes) 68 stocks we're holding along with various funds and other alternative assets as time goes on. Paying subscribers get access to all this information on a constant basis. It's not all about the views ;) Nonetheless, your feedback is useful, so thank you for taking the time to comment.

[@angel1999999999]

👏👏👍👍

[@joepiv]

We'll keep it coming ;)

[@davidboyd2641]

AEHR PXLW

[@joepiv]

Thank you for the tickers. AEHR has been raised multiple times by our paying subscribers so will likely be covered. PXLW is too small to be on our radar.

[@hurlentropy6866]

Valens

[@Nanalyze]

We don't invest in companies with a market cap of less than $1 billion

[@seanjorgenson7251]

Atomera ATOM

[@Nanalyze]

This one isn't even worth us looking at. Too small. No meaningful revenue.

[@Dgkeys5]

SITM, INDI

[@Nanalyze]

Both these names were raised on our Discord server along with some others (SITM/CREDO/AEHR/INDI/VALENS). We may cover some/all/none, just depends on how the analysis goes for future articles in this series. Seems like SITM is quite popular.

[@Dgkeys5]

@@Nanalyze SITM is my 5th largest position, 4.2% of my portfolio. INDI is 16th @ 2.9%. My only semiconductor exposure. Thanks for the great content!

[@joepiv]

@@Dgkeys5 Sounds like a well adjusted portfolio! Nice work focusing on weightings and looking at your aggregate exposure to semis of around 7%.

[@ttown963]

Lattice Semiconductors

[@Nanalyze]

We haven't researched this firm.

[@ttown963]

@@Nanalyze, then you should do so and make a video! :)

[@Nanalyze]

If you're a paying subscriber, drop us an email and we might consider it.

[@ttown963]

@@Nanalyze I have already done my research though :)

[@Nanalyze]

@@ttown963 You're sorted then

[@rwatson3726]

GFS

[@Nanalyze]

Gordon Food Service?

[@Nanalyze]

We're teasing you. Any particular reasons you'd like to share with the class as to why you think GFS is a great investment?

[@Markisha64]

If by best you mean some company like NVIDIA loosing 50% of value in one year, with prospect to lose more?

[@Nanalyze]

Not sure you got the point of the video, but you do you mate. Hopefully you're not "loosing" too much money in the markets.