The Big Mistake EVERY Live Poker Player Makes - Even the Best!

[@LivePokerGuide]

Watch next: Raise to this size in live poker! kzbin.info/www/bejne/jKSzmXl4ftdnnJo

[@lqdlqd1385]

Hi Andreas. Please explain what is the difference between "4:25 Why set-mining is often a mistake" and "7:36 When calling induces mistakes" cases? The examples seem similar, but conclusions are contradictory.

[@andrewcharles2249]

Thank you Andreas for all your invaluable content. I have learnt lots but I don't want everyone else learning too 🤪

[@LivePokerGuide]

Ha yes! I know the feeling. I don't want the whole world to know these secrets, but then again, the whole world doesn't watch my videos (I wish!), so it's okay ;-)

[@masstransitrecords7865]

You’re missing a bunch of important factors when it comes to whether a call is good or bad

[@LivePokerGuide]

What would those be? Obviously in such a short video, I can’t address everything, but it would be interesting to hear what the things are you mean.

[@CARPital]

​@@LivePokerGuideWhen gto opens to 5x or bigger it has a tight range. But your live fish at nl200 has a wider range than the 2.25x probably

[@LivePokerGuide]

@@CARPital I agree with that, but if you look at the 5X button opening range, it is still 34% of hands.

[@silentkaster]

5:25 In your exact example, you say the investment is $10. However, the player is in the BB, meaning the investment is $8. This means the player must win $64 to break even when they flop a set, according to your example and math. I know that seems nitpicky, but it turns your example from a small -ev to a considerable +ev. Unless I am missing something?

[@Nato_coffee1]

IP raised to $12

[@LivePokerGuide]

Thanks. Yes you missed something: the raise was to 6BB rather than 5BB, which is why BB has to call $10.

[@LivePokerGuide]

Correct, thanks :)

[@criostasi]

As always nice video. I agree with almost everything you said. Just some observations. 1) As you know by default I almost never flat call a raise outside bb. I do it in some specific situations from the button (openraiser is a thought oppo and there are recs in blinds) but never if the raise is bigger than 3bb. 2) In the big blind if the raise is bigger than 3x is always 3bet or fold. Never call anything against anyone. Really rare exceptions. 3) About the fold of KJ form the bb against a 5x open. Solver says it is a fold but it supposes that the opening range is right for that size and position. If we modify the range of the opener for example to 35% not so sure KJ will be a fold, even for that opening size.

[@LivePokerGuide]

Thanks, a very qualified answer as always! Regarding the fold with KJo and your question: a button opening range to 5x in GTO is 34% of all hands, which is very close to the 35% you mentioned. Against that open, KJo mixes between raising and folding, so the EV is 0. This means that it's really cuspy. If someone raises more than 35%, it becomes more of a 3bet, but otherwise I still think it's a fold. But I think we agree that it's never a call ;-)

[@criostasi]

@@LivePokerGuide I need to buy the paid version of GTO wizard and take a look at similar things... Thanks for the info.

[@LivePokerGuide]

@@criostasi yes, it’s definitely worth it, even if only for a month to play around with it. You know you can get 10% off with my code. ;-) but seriously, I do think that working with it improves the theoretical understanding a lot.

[@schnu2u]

Great video. Excellent points using data and experience

[@pokerqAK47]

Of course I make mistakes. Whatever they are… my win rate is 15bb/hr so idc much. When I started learning gto and stuff my winrate dropped to 3bb/hr soooo. I’ll just play my way. Which is 3b a lot in position, overfold oop.

[@LivePokerGuide]

If you r way works, there is not much reason to change anything.

[@pokerqAK47]

Solver doesn’t account for times when a fish raises 43s and you can call their gigantic raise (let’s forget 3b for now) with like ATo because 1. Some of them will bet any board and you can just call down 2. You can cooler them and they never ever fold. They live for hero calls. Solver doesn’t take any of that into account.

[@LivePokerGuide]

Agreed. But calling a huge bet with ATo might still not be great. What if you are dominated? What if you completely miss and he fires a cbet? If he is truly a maniac and you can call him down with A high, then maybe it's positive EV, but even then it can't be great. And if he turns bottom pair into a bluff, you even lose with your A high.

[@Bubblerainbow]

I've been playing micro stakes for about 2 years now (nl2-nl10) but I'm still a loser. How long it take to get to a stable profit at micro stakes? How about you? Should I give up after all this time spent without any success? I basically play for 3 hours a day.

[@Big_Old_Bondy]

I'm in the same position as you mate don't give up. I've started to turn the strategy around to profitability but I had a few years of being break even/loosing. You only need to find one or two mistakes that you are making on a regular basis and fix them to start making yourself profitable at the stakes you play. Do you use Pokertracker or Holdem Manager? I would personally offer to help you if you want by talking with you and going through some hand histories for you if you have them? I have 90k hands at your stakes and have a bb/100 of 2 overall. However my bb/100 over the last 10k hands is around 10.

[@LivePokerGuide]

@@Bubblerainbow playing those micro steaks is basically a losing proposition from the start. The rake is so incredibly high, and the pool is nitty, so you barely have a chance to make money there. That’s why live poker is just so much better. I don’t think that you necessarily have to give up, but it sounds like you do have to study more to improve. but even then you have to play at 25NL to get anywhere.

[@lqdlqd1385]

What is the difference between "4:25 Why set-mining is often a mistake" and "7:36 When calling induces mistakes" cases? The examples seem similar, but conclusions are contradictory.

[@LivePokerGuide]

Very good question! Sorry, I should indeed have explained that a bit better. So in scenario 2, we are in position against an early position raise with a strong range who we know can't let go of an overpair. In scenario 1, we are out of position against a late position opener, who has a very wide range. So even if we make a set there, he might not even have a pair, which means that we won't make a lot of money from him, whereas the early position opener has a much higher density of big pairs that makes it more likely to pay us off. Hope this makes more sense now.

[@razersedge2k974]

So an important factor is if he has a strong hand he's more likely to get stacked when he hits a set. For example calling 2 2 on button vs a UTG raise is fine, but calling 2 2 from the sb or BB to a button raise isn't. The reason is that you will miss your set most of the time and he will likely win the pot by betting any 2 cards. When you do hit your set you will almost never win more than like a 20bb pot because they are often raising very trash hands that are never putting in 100bbs

[@lqdlqd1385]

Thank you guys for the explenations 👍😀.

[@LivePokerGuide]

@@razersedge2k974 very good summer, thank you! :)

[@HighStakesPokerReplays]

This IS Very Cool Keep up

[@MelFinehout]

I agree with the premise. Regarding the 44 hand, you also have to account for the times you win without making a hand, however. You’re going to have some showdown value, and some bluffing opportunities. Also, you can occasionally make a straight. If you’re just set mining heads up it’s just never going to be worth it, unless you’re very deep against a very strong range. The basic mistake preople make is they think of the stack depth in bb. Like “we are 100bb deep, so we can call”. It’s true but largely irrelevant. In live poker, with stack sizes and pf bet sizes all over the place, you have to think about what the post flop SPR is going to be. Related to this, the larger the bet is the less your 1bb investment matters. If someone raises to 15 who cares if you have one bb in the pot??? You’re out of position, you better have a very high skill advantage and at least as good a range as the opener, probably better. I would call the 44 multi-way on the button or heads up if the stack depth was there and the range was tight enough. OOP, in the big blind, with 1/5th the pf bet in them it’s an easy fold. Loosen up on the button if you want to play more hands. Then you have skill, and positional advantage.

[@TheHotkarlmarxbros]

this is really the tldr of this video and most videos. you wana get splashy, do it in position. and your ep actions could probably always stand to be more nitty.

[@LivePokerGuide]

Yeah very good summary, thanks!

[@LivePokerGuide]

agreed!

[@fracritel]

You need to write the book

[@LivePokerGuide]

Thank you! Yes, working on it :)

[@fracritel]

@@LivePokerGuide I remember I read this once and I told somebody to do it. They were writing a book and I said no matter what y’all have to write one page a day you can write 10, but you must write one and they followed my advice and they did complete a book and it took them about four months, instead of what they were guessing to two years, just a thought one page a day

[@LivePokerGuide]

@@fracritel that’s great!

[@dexterous6419]

Where are the 1/2 games where it is folding to CO and then folds again to BB. Typical 1/2 games I see are: UTG - HJ (at least 3 limpers) CO-BB (someone raise between 5x-8x) - EVERYONE calls 6 - 7 handed on flop , first to act Donk leads, second cold call, third goes all in. Show me GTO strategies for these ^ kind of hands

[@LivePokerGuide]

Sadly, my games are all like this! I’d love to swap with you. But I hear you. I’m working on content for multiway pots. Unfortunately, there are no GTO solutions from them, but we can still work around them.

[@ztaher3891]

Wow ur videos are great man

[@LivePokerGuide]

Thank you so much :)

[@dvarsa3596]

the concepts seem very useful and correct but the example with the bottle of milk is off target. You are not paying more money for the same thing, you are investing 15 to win 32 for example. you need slightly better odds than investing 5 to win 12 but it isn't as the example of course. Sorry i was triggered for some reason

[@LivePokerGuide]

Sorry to hear that my milk example triggered you. I still think it was a good way to show how value works. Of course you are right with what you are saying though.

[@dano187]

…what is the button’s range in gto wiz when they raise 5x?

[@noelassoued2441]

Right, what if they 5x 50% of hands... is this still a fold?

[@LivePokerGuide]

It is a bit tighter than the normal opening ranges, but not ridiculously tight. It's still 34% of hands.

[@LivePokerGuide]

Good question! Button is meant to open 34% of hands when opening to 5x. If he opens 50% of hands, the adjustment is NOT to fold more, but to 3bet more. But whatever you do, don't call that much. Calling is the issue, not 3betting or folding.

[@xxxxrossxxxx9235]

I play 1/3 in California. Never…and I repeat never does anyone open to anything less than 3x. Usually the open is 12 or 15 bucks. What should I be opening to? 🤷‍♂️

[@Hall0w33n_l0v3r]

Don't play that game nobody wins at it. Except for the rake

[@LivePokerGuide]

Thanks! I will answer this question in more detail in my Ask Me Anything Live Stream on Monday. But here's a short version: games in California are tricky because of the drop structure. It is hard to even make a profit in those games. The right adjustment is the following: be extremely tight, and I mean tighter than you ever think you should play. In early position, you should raise really small (2.5x) or - if you have a really big hand (AA, KK) - go really big. Problem is, you will go multiway to any flop whatever you do. If you're in late position, it's a different game. Assuming that someone has raised to $15, you now have to 3bet or fold. And only 3bet the very best hands (TT+, AQ+) and fold everything else. This is very boring, but you either have to move up or if you want to play this exact game, then this is the only real adjustment to win.

[@LivePokerGuide]

Yep, sadly you are right. Playing incredibly tight will still mean that you can make a small profit, but it's hardly worth it.

[@xxxxrossxxxx9235]

@@LivePokerGuide thank you so much for the time you put into this response. I never miss a video. You’re helping has been amazing. I’ve been plying 1/3 for about 3 months. 4800 dollar profit. About 25 per hour. I just really struggle and fall into the 15 dollar open trap. When I open to 9/10/12 I get 5 callers. 15 usually 1-3 callers. 20…0-1 caller. So I just don’t know. This was very helpful!!!!

[@LivePokerGuide]

@@xxxxrossxxxx9235 that’s great to hear! Glad my content has helped you. Just try to open a bit smaller in early position and see how it goes.

[@sonnyshades5519]

The fact that you continue to use $1/$2 NL as a baseline is kind've silly. Almost no good players play 1/2.

[@LivePokerGuide]

It doesn't matter whether good players play 1/2 or not. My audience plays mainly 1/2 and 1/3, which is why I use these examples.

[@code3junkremoval466]

@@LivePokerGuideand we appreciate it, since it’s the common raise sizes that we experience