The Bond Market Will Take The Stock Market Down With It (Here’s Why) | Andy Constan

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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:16 The Script
02:49 Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes
04:17 Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession
07:29 Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)
13:10 At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market?
17:13 VaEck Ad
18:15 How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500)
22:35 Stock Bond Correlation
30:17 May Fed Meeting
31:36 Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts)
33:28 Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year
34:59 Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy
39:05 What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks?
41:24 Gold's Sudden Rise
44:53 The Japanese Yen
46:54 The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States
47:37 Chinese Equity Market
49:35 Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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[@BlockworksHQ]

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[@bilyonarelifestile2226]

bye felicia

[@bilyonarelifestile2226]

what was edited out around 19:20?

[@Riggsnic_co]

I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

[@JacquelinePerrira]

One strategy for protecting against a recession is to buy equities. Investors, especially during a recession, need to know where and how to put money in order to make money while avoiding inflation.

[@Ashley186fre2]

It has never been easier to understand how to build your money than it is right now, when you may study and experience a completely variegated market passively by employing a successful portfolio-advisor. The impacts of the U.S. dollar's gain or fall on investtments, in my opinion, are complex.

[@kevinmarten]

Working with a Financial Advisor to help guide you on your wealth-building journey if you're just starting out is a wonderful way to get started and thats how i was able to accrued good gains . They helps to manage investment overall risk profile , prevent permanent loss of capital consider maintaining a broad diversification of your investments that reflects your personal risk tolerance, time horizon, and the nature of your financial goal

[@JacquelinePerrira]

please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?

[@kevinmarten]

Credits to 'Carol Vivian Constable' she has a web presence, so you can simply

[@leonardblavatnik2690]

As we witness the current economic landscape, it's becoming increasingly clear that we're entering a recession. These times can pose significant financial challenges.

[@FairGosling]

Indeed, Recessions have a way of affecting people's financial stability and investment portfolios in profound ways.

[@BigCheckerC]

100%… it’s so crazy

[@ReubenAxelson]

Oh yeah! You can definitely say that, it does worry me a bit, but not as much as it would worry the average guy, my investment portfolio has survived a couple of recessions unscathed.

[@ReubenAxelson]

I knew it would pose a potential problem to my finances therefore, I had to acquire the services of a Top Tier financial advisor whose expertise has been pivotal in helping me navigate the complexities of economic downturns.

[@LucaZaniolo]

That's intriguing, l've been on the lookout for a financial advisor who can provide sound guidance during these uncertain times.

[@donovantobs]

the yield on bonds have decreased especially on the long end (30 and 10 Y) indicating that the demand is still there even if the supply remains huge showing a preference for safety. I'm still at a crossroad regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k

[@victoriaabott]

Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks

[@kurtKking]

I agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about $200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost $673,000

[@Adambarking]

Please will you be kind enough to share the details of the man that helped you?

[@kurtKking]

Actually its a Lady. Yes my go to person is a 'MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH'. So easy and compassionate Lady. You should take a look at her work.

[@Adambarking]

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.

[@AmandaAshley-yg9if]

*Hallelujah!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻was owning a loan of $47,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery (David), Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $12,000 and got my payout of m $270,500 every months,God bless Christy Fiore 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸..*

[@LabrumZahn]

Hello how do you make such monthly ?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦 of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God.

[@AmandaAshley-yg9if]

Thanks to my co-worker (Alex) who suggested Ms Christy Fiore

[@ChelseaBullard]

She's a licensed broker in the states 🇺🇸

[@ChelseaBullard]

After I raised up to 325k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states 🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son's surgery (Oscar). Glory to God.shalom.

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Wow that's nice She makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach her services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help me.

[@Layanalisa]

Watching the crypto market's ups and downs shows how quickly things can change. The recent misinformation incident reminds us that external factors can shake things up. In crypto, strategic, informed trading isn't a choice; it's a must. Remember, caution is as crucial as ambition here. Stay alert, diversify, and let's ride this unpredictable market together. At the core is Walter James , whose deep understanding of crypto and traditional trading is key. His all-encompassing investment approach and staying updated on trends make him a valuable ally in this crypto era…

[@Layanalisa]

HE'S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS, USING THE USERNAME...

[@Layanalisa]

@Gainwithwalter7

[@Johnbottis]

Access to good information is what we investors needs to progress financially and generally in life. this is a good one and I appreciate..

[@Alfredheranndez]

Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing Mr Walter James Henry pearl.. name been mentioned here also. Didn't know he has been good to so many people...

[@Luissierra12373]

On the grand scheme of things, once you understand the potential of trad!ng, you can bet on it but I think people need the education to fully understand...

[@bobbymainz1160]

I think the stock market will do well in 2024, so I'm thinking of putting $220,000 into stocks for my retirement. Any advice on doing this safely? Also, any important tips for the current financial situation?

[@alexyoung3126]

Yes, truly, investing in the market, even if it's just the S&P 500, can keep up with inflation, because the growth rate of stocks will always exceed the inflation rate. But if you don't have the courage, you could just invest with a financial advisor, which even has greater return on investments, while securing your investment against losses.

[@williamyejun8508]

Keeping money in the bank is like paying banks and the Govemment. Here's how it works: The bank gives out your money as loan, and charge interest obviously higher than inflation rate, and then give you, the depositor, interest lower than inflation rate. That means net loss for you. That is why I prefer to invest, and on average, my advisor makes returns that always beats inflation!

[@johnlennon232]

Glad to have stumbled on this comment, Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?

[@williamyejun8508]

Rachel Sarah Parrish a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.

[@johnlennon232]

Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance

[@lillyvazgueztk1410]

If you’re not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake, I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you prevent inflation

[@lillyvazgueztk1410]

I went from no money to lnvest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Tracy Britt Cool. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here

[@Mariacarlos11]

Hello how do you make such ?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God.

[@sarjanomshdjdgdk3157]

She is my family' personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker in the United States.

[@deeannagartenhaus6978]

After I raised up to 75k tra d ing with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery . Glory to God.shalom.

[@Watersbill89]

Wow that's nice She makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach her services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help me.

[@LeahRoberts618]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Kimberly Smith.

[@Markbowen631]

Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

[@EmmettDeclan.]

She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.

[@Stephanie_Summer]

You trade with Kimberly Smith too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@ScottBingman]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@Donnawilson736]

I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much

[@EverlyndPerez]

With the current pause in the stock market's upward trend, I'm thinking of making an investment to profit from it since I have $450K in reserve that I haven't yet used but I'm not sure what would be the best course of action.

[@Debbie.Burton]

Find stocks with market-beating yields and shares that at least keep pace with the market long term. For a successful long-term strategy you have to seek guidance from a financial advisor.

[@A_francis]

I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking.

[@benitabussell5053]

Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

[@A_francis]

“Sharon Lynne Hart” is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@BenTodd-fl8nv]

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

[@Notrocketscience101]

He forgot to mention he said "sell all assets around nov. 7th. I doubt Andy beats the markets over time.

[@yvrytry5rc]

Then got mad and deactivated his twitter lol

[@noah46644]

@@yvrytry5rc why lie? He always owns to his mistakes and constantly posts about his losses.

[@simrans3675]

Haha - true; saw many wrong calls in the past and gets upset when called out. Was calling for end of the world and doomer takes in late 22 - unreal how these folks can just flip and cover up

[@noah46644]

@@simrans3675 okay random LMFAO

[@simrans3675]

@@noah46644 I am not that cool for your 'LMFAO' lingo, Gen Z cool kid weirdo :-)

[@HelenJaneta]

Revux's impact on loyalty programs could be revolutionary. Glad to be in early!

[@davidmarilley6060]

What is Constan's time stamped compound return since 1/1/2020? Where are the numbers?

[@sailorm79]

If I had a nickel for everyone saying the economy is doomed...

[@FatherGapon-gw6yo]

If you say its gonna crash long enough…

[@DwightWalterr]

Revux's team is top-notch. Expecting big developments soon!

[@andrewmorris2820]

My favorite fade on CNBC is long bonds, Andy is short, good enough for me.

[@TammyDorothymm]

Revux's roadmap looks promising. Exciting times ahead!

[@Quantitative_Teasing]

I think Andy puts way too much weight on treasury supply. I doubt the curve will steepen if fed cuts rates, the longer end is inextricably linked to front end. For bonds the single most critical parameter driving price is inflation and inflation expectations. Hence falling bond yields in recessions (despite ever increasing issuance)

[@MarilynRuther]

Been tracking Revux's development. Impressed with the progress!

[@ChristineJenniferas]

Revux stands out in the crowded crypto space. A real gem!

[@RobertAntonyar]

Just increased my holdings in Revux. Feeling confident about this one!

[@fl0ridaman123]

i bought more HODL yesterday

[@s1n7x]

Nobody will ever accuse this guy of knowing the future. lol

[@ericfrith6358]

Thanks, Andy and Jack.

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you

[@prolific1518]

The Plunge Protection Team has a trading desk at the New York Fed. Fraud market

[@hedgedrisk6487]

Explain this please, this isn’t the first time I’ve heard this term before

[@BigTomInTheBasement]

​@@hedgedrisk6487it's government direct interference in the market.

[@NicoleKrystar]

Presale investments have been my go-to, and Revux is my latest pick. Early birds catch the worm!

[@EmilyArtemis]

Revux's low presale price is a steal. Time to load up!

[@lnd3005]

We've apparentky been stuck in Act 3 for over two years now, still waiting on those bad earnings lmao 😂

[@GereRuli]

In the next bull run, keep an eye on DOT, VRA, and SOL, but don't overlook Revux's RVX

[@bpb5541]

10 year has broken out of its 40 year downtrend… that is all we need to know

[@BatmanBoss]

Thanks Jack

[@AndersonFair-cy2bb]

Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.

[@Raymondcraw1967RaymondCrawley]

the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.

[@BrewerVera]

You're right mate! I’ve been using a fin-market expert for two years now and I own a 7figure diversified portfolio from investing in stocks. Currently, my portfolio is worth over $1m.

[@FaithAndrada-xo9ou]

thats really massive!How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

[@BrewerVera]

Whitney Kay Stacy’’ is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@FaithAndrada-xo9ou]

Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her explaining my financial market goals and scheduled a call

[@aperson1181]

why is andy stating that if the growth were to slow that would benefit 2 yr notes more than 10 yrs treasuries?

[@danman1287]

It just shows the pros r used car salesmen. Doesn't mean they cant be right once in awhile. Its a coin flip right on every investment decision

[@ca6360]

Bear market is leaving money doing nothing.

[@jayearl3591]

@6:15 Less popular show... CNBC 😁

[@easterntechartists]

This guy is gonna get clobbered 😅

[@davenchop]

yet the mkt just keeps going up...dont try to overthink it.. go with the flow.. when it turns there will be time to close out or go short.. in the meantime its just keeps rising

[@Pangora2]

Its been going sideways for awhile now. I have some normie coworkers that message me on -2% QQQ days. I keep pointing out this is just where it was the last time it did that, and the time before that.

[@Details825]

I agree with this quite a bit. We just did a correction after pushing up pretty hard earlier this year. I think we are going into a blow off top and then a massive correction. I don't think we are going down anytime soon. Bond are reaching their top and I think they will capitulate. Same with dxy which will then pop the small caps who will have massive returns this summer

[@blottolotto7648]

@@Details825 same

[@Mike-es2yg]

​@Details825 EVERYONE thinks it's headed up...everyone on one side of the boat.

[@Details825]

@@Mike-es2yg funny, most people think it's heading down as well I see

[@ramisegal6905]

Stonks mirroring inflation just like any asset

[@slowridefpv9668]

Powell says inflation will return to 2% but doesn’t say when.

[@michaelacton6246]

Powell is a clown

[@wrg2608]

A broken clock is right twice a day. #fedspeak

[@calz7744]

Not on JP watch, lol

[@michaelacton6246]

@calz7744 The longer Powell gaslights, everyone ignores the real data, and this is only going to get worse. We haven't seen anything yet. He will keep it afloat until election when he's gone, it will sink like the titanic, and he won't take any responsibility for what's coming. Probably get the medal for economics and book deals he needs to be locked up and prosecuted

[@peterbarbati]

Looks like a meade lx90 in the background.

[@jacobbrown1030]

Killer episode!

[@andyanderson480]

Bonds represent the broad outlook of growth and inflation expectations, if he expects yields to take off then he is is expecting economy to take off also, and he should be bullish on stocks, don't make much sense

[@Jean-Luc-sh2pg]

Ippolito is the boss!

[@winstonsmith6204]

Ben Bernanke

[@scott7521]

jeffrey tambor

[@briandoyle14]

Almost wondering if this was recorded before the fed meeting day last Wednesday.

[@BlockworksHQ]

was recorded the day after Powell press conference (May 2nd) -Jack

[@CliveBirse]

The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?

[@ThomasChai05]

This is still a window-shopping market. But there are a lot of intriguing stocks to watch from a variety of sectors. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.

[@mikegarvey17]

This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.

[@mariaguerrero08]

@@mikegarvey17Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?

[@mikegarvey17]

Credits goes to " Gertrude Margaret Quinto " one of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.

[@Madison-Huff]

I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

[@lancechapman3070]

Could falling equities cause older people with large portfolios to reduce spending? This could bring on a recession.

[@richardrydel4350]

don't hold your breath, they started pumping the market 15 years ago and never stopped...

[@JR-tp2rb]

Hasn’t Andy been waiting for equity sell off for a few years now. One day…

[@anonymouslyominous3]

Guy reminds me of an actor , voice and appearance

[@janreichenbach265]

As of now, I see a superhealthy bullmarket in stocks. I've done a calculation showing the NDX / Nasdaq100 should be around - no hard science - 54,000 - 58,000 points in the timeframe 2040 - 2042. I would NOT, under all circumstances, bet on a downswing in the US stockmarket. It'll cost you money long-term, because US corporate earnings know only one direction, UP -> and stockprices of course will have to follow.

[@Xmj202]

Jack is good interviewer but all of these macro 🧠 traders have been completely wrong for a very long time. They make their money (which is a lot) not from their brilliant bets but from the people that pay their consulting and subscription fees

[@jasonclement6305]

Good interview. I tastefully disagree on bonds going to new lows... no macro reason. Tlt Chart just looks to be forming a higher low on the monthly given the (alleged) "volume climax" near the lows. Happy to be wrong. Thanks for great content.

[@techbeary]

Andy is a sub seller and paper trader. He doesn’t understand macro at all.

[@BlockworksHQ]

Andy is a pro's pro and he trades for real. Per his post Damped Spring Alpha portfolio is up twice the S&P by mid April. twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1779980707990839522 Making money and being right are not the same thing at all. - Jack

[@joshuaburns3167]

Bad call on the bonds

[@sharr630]

The bond market has been overdue for a crash for more than a decade. IYKYK

[@Cammimullens]

The current market/economy is unnecessarily tougher for boomers/senior citizens, I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.

[@TitaAnderson]

Just buy Gold, the government has failed us or try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your investment is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses.

[@KarolQasba]

Indeed, gold proves to be a strong investment and a reliable hedge against the declining value of the dollar. I've held onto some gold for quite some time, and I'm thankful that my advisor's rapid adjustments to market fluctuations have likely prevented significant losses.

[@softy-bf5eg]

Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.

[@KarolQasba]

Just research the name Angela Lynn Shilling. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@softy-bf5eg]

I just checked her out and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@jerrycampbell-ut9yf]

The ongoing sell-off in bonds and worries about an escalation in Middle East hostilities are weighing on the market, I want to diversify my stock portfolio of $400K but not sure on how to mitigate risk because my portfolio has been declining rapidly since Q2 2022

[@Peterl4290]

keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.

[@larrypaul-cw9nk]

Yes, I have been in touch with an advis0r ever since the outbreak. With an initial starting reserve of $80k my advis0r chooses the entry and exit commands for my port-folio, which has grown to approximately $350k

[@sabastinenoah]

That's quite incredible! My p0rtfolio has been performing poorly and i've lost a significant amount of money, therefore I could really use their advice. Who is the advis0r?

[@larrypaul-cw9nk]

Her name is “VIVIAN CAROL GIOIA” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

[@sabastinenoah]

I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes.Thanks for sharing truly!

[@computerman9580]

Andy is as good as it gets..

[@hedgedrisk6487]

Jack looks like the legend Livermore in the beginning clip #IYKYK

[@Gyvenotjas]

Yeah three days before you said "Im all in on short" in October... We do remember it.

[@RD-kz4wr]

Dude makes no sense. BoJ 'burns' spectators by selling Yen and then losing money while Yen falls.

[@dotbasing]

10:11 onwards

[@DD-bh3gh]

😂😂😂 the market is landing huge slap on faces of the bear 😂😂😂😂

[@SilverMonsterCoind]

Bears are all in today and will be losing alot of money over the next few days on the perceived .764 ABC

[@jfausset]

The new stutter to sound smart = “you know?” becoming “”yo”.

[@DesmondMiles333]

Andy is a great guy but he seems to have lost his confidence.

[@Layanalisa]

Thanks for the continuous update! I am super excited about how my crypto investment is going so far, making over 35k weekly is an amazing gain

[@dsflat6785]

Bitcoin Cash is up about 300% in one year, so over twice the gains as BTC over the same period 🤔 BCH has the same 21M max supply, the same Genesis block, same miners and halvings 🤔 Transactions are on-chain with BCH, no need to use off-chain money transmitters...🤔 "It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on" 🌱

[@islandhopper100]

doom and gloom sells but it does not make you wealthy. time in the stock market creates wealth and everything else is a distant follower. I will glady buy a crypto etf when its underlying assets come with an earnings report. Artificial scarcity breeds contempt and distrust. Trying to predict the future and time any market is not a path to wealth for most which is exactly what this video is selling.

[@jaredpalmer2265]

-7% Q1. LOL Stop listening to this guy immediately.

[@M.Montgomery]

@7:17

[@BlockworksHQ]

I believe 7% was a reference to a drawdown (i.e. peak to trough decline in portfolio value), not Q1 total return for Andy. - Jack

[@BobbyRogery]

Revux's whitepaper blew me away. RVX is the future of crypto!