The Bond Vigilantes Are Back! And They're NOT Happy About Deficit Spending | Ed Yardeni

[@larryjoe1357]

In regards to inflation this guy lives in a different world than middle class Americans.

[@investmentdrone283]

Let's face it, inflation is very low on the moon. 😁😁. It's amazing how easily these Wall Street types lie.

[@armondlevinia9221]

I was thinking the exact same thing! His feet never touch the ground.

[@carrimycalifor]

I was thinking the same thing!! When it came a few things…

[@JA-zh5xi]

Higher rates are really good for responsible companies and individuals. Debt free people can take advantage of higher rates and are mostly unharmed by them. Hope Fed funds rate goes to 10%.

[@ssuwandi3240]

Sure when the oldies only lived up to 70s yo. Now boomers over the age of 80s are abundant which mean we are becoming more and more a welfare state nation.. the poor, middle class 30% of population.. the West is doomed.. there's no way out of this demographic set up

[@jasonport2907]

Be careful what you wish for.

[@accountfake1070]

The real interest rate is negative. Inflation is higher than interest paid = inflation is doing its job of stealing the purchasing power of savers.

[@No.1Phil]

Adam you promised this would be a good bull case, I'm literally seeing no data, no proof of claims, lots of brushing aside. Come on man, where's the pushback on this nonsense.

[@carrimycalifor]

Right on Lolol!

[@jonathanlee5185]

👍Wealthion: thanks for inviting a variety of guests👍 Ed, though, is a polite spokesperson for self-absorbed, rich retirees still luxuriating in the petrodollar dreamland. 'No guilt, here, then!'

[@erikbusenbark4865]

Employment is strong because everyone has 3 part time jobs and coming out of retirement to survive the inflation!

[@frankmarsh1159]

This guy is clueless about housing if he thinks prices have hit bottom. The downturn hasn't really got rolling yet.

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Because so much of the housing market is frozen, the marginal nominal prices will hold longer. This makes the housing market look stable but the real values will erode. Homeowners who don’t have to sell won’t, and their mortgage debt will depreciate with inflation. The Fed is intent not to let asset markets crash, but wants them to depreciate along with the debt. Managing the effects of fiscal policy will probably be their biggest challenge.

[@JA-zh5xi]

People are locked into low rates are not selling. That keeps supply side low even with lower demand side. It might not be at the bottom, but there isn’t going to be a crash either.

[@MichaelHarrington17]

@@DoubleOhSilver For who? People in my state are buying with cash and prices are still going up, but they will fade. The problem is far more complex across different markets and regions.

[@MichaelHarrington17]

@@JA-zh5xi Exactly, but people believe what they want to believe. On both sides of the trade.

[@frankmarsh1159]

@@JA-zh5xi Lot's of supply coming. New construction and Airbnb rentals. Lot's of subprime loans. All time unaffordability, 42% of average income for mortgage payments. Prices will drop through next year then in 2025 the bottom will fall out.

[@markanthony2495]

6:48 pause here. How can the economy withstand 4 to 5% when interest on the national debt has now exceeded Military Spending?

[@HoneyBadger80886]

And the interest rate is accelerating.

[@JamminJaminK]

what!? wages are rising higher than prices... okay good bye

[@thomaskelly6472]

He's in a rich man bubble!

[@jonathanlee5185]

yes, also it's generational: rich retirees still selfishly luxuriating in the petrodollar dreamworld

[@accountfake1070]

@@jonathanlee5185 There are no poor retirees ?

[@douglasgarth]

I hate to admit it but I wish I had listened to Yardeni more over the past 15 years

[@derekteetv]

Bond vigilante: A person who doesn't want to lose money on purpose.

[@dudewheresmyguitar21]

:A person whos mad that markets are irrational

[@HaveANiceDay108]

We need to educate people on Bitcoin. The rest pales in comparison!

[@BoBear79]

Kudos for going after a big fish like Yardeni and giving listeners a broader perspective. While I may disagree with the likes of this guest or a Tom Lee, smart investors need to hear all sides of the issues. Well-informed is well prepared for whatever comes.

[@BoBear79]

I should clarify. I disagree with some of his conclusions; but I have immense respect for him and his work.

[@jonathanlee5185]

👍Yes, good point about us small investors needing to hear all sides. Like your good self, I disagree with what Ed Yardeni and Tom Lee have to say -- but heed the fact that they represent the high-financial class who control markets. 👍

[@elliotthovanetz1945]

I bet this guy was all on board with 'transitory'. 'Single family housing may have bottomed'. Really? With RECORD unaffordability 😂.

[@fhowland]

He’s a total 🤡

[@johnweibel1128]

The consumers who DONT have portfolios are NOT doing well. Gross Aggregate statistics xn be VERY misleading.

[@garonkiesel1646]

Excellent interview. I disagree with Mr. Yardeni's view on housing. Housing WILL DROP significantly. It may take 1 to 3 years to happen. People wrongly assume that if it doesn't happen with the same velocity as 2008 then it isn't going to happen. I strongly disagree.

[@robertharrelson5024]

Valuable to hear some contrarian views to the preponderance of bears. It helps me be much more skeptical of anyone that is predicting the future.

[@mattanderson6672]

Ahhh he's brilliant is Ed!!! Love his analysis, l could listen to him all day!! Thanks for having him on! Great interview!

[@erikbusenbark4865]

No one can afford to move @ 8% mortgage, so housing may not crash for awhile. New homes only selling by builders buying down the interest.

[@MrAaronCard]

Great interview. Don’t agree but thanks for having him.

[@barrycalvert8219]

I don't think the Consumer is spending. They buy things they have to and those costs have rose 30% over 2 years. Thus Inflation makes it LOOK LIKE we r spending. Nothing more. His balance of his friends are 3% of the Nation. Those are smaller millionaires, and people making 100k - 3M. Unfortunately, that is 10% of the nation. 60% live PTP, and he doesn't see that as the main class.

[@Lassemalten]

What? Someone that don't think it will be a recession but just a small slow down

[@annKLR]

Awesome to see Ed on your show. You are a great interviewer Adam. Your questions are so well constructed and encapsulate many possible outcomes. Great job!

[@nmdale78]

Here in the UK i count sale signs versus sold on the way home. Today 7 for sale versus 1 sold. Last few weeks to a month lots of activity but a clear trend of houses being on the market longer. This maybe noise but i wonder if people have seen the first movers taking their advantage and the rest are starting to pile in which will begin the real move downward. Also, on the side...not tgat many people have a portfolio outside of their pension. But the chap has a point...the boomer generation is huge and many moved into retirement during the pandemic and afterwards, perhaps we are seeing a services sustained by their spending.

[@trevordowney6425]

I think this guy's got his blinders on. I have far less trust for the people in charge to keep things together.

[@vdanger7669]

Ed Yardeni watching One Piece on Netflix. Enjoyed the interview. I do think there will be an economic reckoning. You can't play stupid games and not win stupid prizes. Eventually the snake eyes show up.

[@robynopenshaw5268]

Don’t listen to critics saying your q’s are too long, Adam. I think you’re one of the best interviewers out there. I think your q’s are tight. I have been podcasting a long time too and I’m a subject matter expert so I have something to say too, and it’s okay that you do we well! Love your metaphors.

[@mdo5121]

another great interview...thanks....his views are always balanced as I am now more cautious but not to the extreme

[@Mike_Phoutrides1611]

Ed Yardeni / Michael Pento cage match on Wealthion, who's down?

[@yssopyot5487]

You should have David Cervantes on. He was on a rival show recently. He went long the 10_year recently after shorting it in the summer. Plus he has a unique perspective that you don’t hear anywhere else-comments on his recent interview were polarizing because he wasn’t saying the things some people wanted to hear.

[@gregg6992]

I'm sure the Fed will begin a new QE where the interest on government debt is returned to the government. The economy will be stuck with high interest rates but the government can skirt it.

[@bobz4968]

Absolutely. The government pays the debt to itself, basically. No one talks about that trick.

[@fhowland]

I found his dismissive, completely out of touch attitude regarding the skyrocketing cost of housing outrageous.

[@barrycalvert8219]

Go to a close factory near you ED. Don't cherry pick one. Yale University is not a factory. Finally on this... I am at the ground floor. Where people make 17/hr to assemble. Same wage this country paid in 1993, 30 years on. Plus, a recession has already been IN play for YEARS. Difference is the Goverment hides it with its spending. They account for over 25% of GDP. When need to keep GDP numbers out of negative territory they just bump up military spending, Ukraine, Israel, and more. All I hear is a Yale doctor living in 1978

[@larryhardee1914]

It would be nice to know why they were that low for that long considering we had low to no inflation for so long you forget exactly where and when it went away before.

[@Josh-ge1cr]

The "bond vigilantes" are investors who probably lost 50-60% on bonds they bought years ago during covid and now want to take that loss maybe for tax loss harvesting or allocating that capital to shorter term yields. Why hold onto something for 20-30 years that's yielding 1-2%? The sellers can also be those who held longer term bonds prior to covid and probably being scared their own bonds will go underwater due to the rate of how fast these yields are moving up, so why not minimize losses while they're near 0, and again, invest in 3M - 2Y yields? The market is literally saying fuck these yields; we want more and some just throwing in the towel.

[@GuadalupePerez-yc9kr]

Will be great if you can do like a summary of the last 10 mins of the conclusion/recommendations, I would like to listen to all your recordings but I can’t is too much time I miss one or two

[@erikbusenbark4865]

Good job Wealthion!

[@erikbusenbark4865]

If the economy is so good Ed, why is homeless everywhere, and crime rampant and growing!

[@JA-zh5xi]

Because of leftists

[@mackakiwinz4353]

Part of the plan to let it happen so you will accept the news terms the current administration want you to accept.

[@billriley2550]

He's all opinions. Never showed any charts,documents or hard facts to prove any if his points.

[@HoneyBadger80886]

Does any of what he describe where you live? What you see?

[@travismonk2804]

@@HoneyBadger80886 does anecdotal evidence experienced through biased perception matter to a global economy?

[@flightboardshawaii2169]

Love Ed Yardeni’s fact-based analysis!!

[@JonSmith531]

There's no 'bond vigilaties' this entire Concept is silly. This isn't the 1970s. People are making decisions about how to move capital and what makes sense. Eurodollar system is facing stress. People, govts, corps, need dollars so they sell liquid instruments to get those dollars. That means treasuries down, yields up, dollar up.

[@jasonweishaupt1828]

We’ve been hearing that The Fed is going to pivot for the last two years.

[@etitoonche5831]

He’s wrong we are going to have a recession, this economy CANNOT sustain those high rates when the debt level is extreme like that...

[@sedonatvcom]

Good question for Ed, Adam... debt levels are much higher now.

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank

[@ASXStockPicking]

I see you posting in Martin North videos too

[@michaelg659]

Really good to get a bullish perspective based on solid economic data analysis. So many are hung up on "the end is nigh! Buy Gold!" doom and gloom.

[@aaron159r2]

What is the cost of an entire nation be locked into their mortgage, unable to move? We act like the option to not list a home and move, to "stay put" or "just rent it out", is a neutral option with no consequence. What's the difference between that and being in a financial prison? The nation's workforce loses it's adaptability and dynamism when fewer workers can freely move about the country to arbitrage geographical employment opportunities.

[@dapred00]

"The Bond Vigilantes Are Back! And They're NOT Happy About Deficit Spending" --> 10Y yields instantly drop from 4,8 to 4,62 as investors desperately want to buy T bonds. Hmm, what a sharp view on the market. So-called Vigilantes might not be happy but they sure are not enough to fill a room.

[@John577]

The freight market has never been slower. It's been going on for over a year. It's not a roll9ng recession. Layoffs are coming. A crash has already begun..

[@robertbender73]

Great insight on both sides of the issues

[@sewnsew6770]

Although for some reason I don’t like the speaker the analysis was very real world and seemed very realistic. 51:21 We do live in a bifurcated society so the bottom 80 percent in assets being crushed. Older baby boomers many are very rich. I was a young boomer but am ok. However would find retiring in America scary due to the health insurance aspects Older boomers got private pensions etc Those don’t exist now mostly

[@futuresoundtrek8298]

The robust job market of exploding part-time jobs and stagnant full time opportunities…I am reminded of a scene in Rain Man where Tom Cruise cuts 4 fish sticks in half. Magic. 8 fish sticks.

[@jackalay23]

Single family has bottomed? I am the only one that heard that? Lord help us if single family RE has bottomed.

[@coryhilleboe6938]

Aka so much currency does not feel like a recession. Is the currency supply data even accurate???

[@cowabungaw9958]

If current low % mortgage holders want to relocate, they should rent out present home, take depreciation & roll over proceeds to new residence. if Home prices dive & they sell, its a capital loss. Of course they would require some capital to float. Home ownership requires careful planning & are meant to be a long term commitment not a roulette wheel.

[@kevinkasimov651]

Wonder what Ed thinks about that chart showing the 30-year bond total return vs S&P500 total return.

[@DanKohan]

As a real estate investor, I get how interest rates can affect housing and commercial properties. So, the housing market is holding up even though mortgage rates are higher. That's because there aren't many homes for sale, and builders can still find buyers even with those higher rates. It's a bit of a surprise. Great video!

[@klausburmester1018]

It’s time to give Simon Hunter a session again to tell us why his predictions are not playing out as stated.

[@charma2]

the only answer to Adams opening question what’s the condition of the markets.. the answer is CONTROLLED

[@investmentdrone283]

Hey buddy, my consultants' income, in tech, have been cut in half. Wages are rising?? Where? In Wall Street?

[@sewnsew6770]

My buddies tech gig vendor laid off 30 percent of consultants last month

[@johnbirman5840]

And what happens once the $27,000 rebate per employee runs out? (I believe it’s STILL being paid out) It’s easy to have great employment numbers and subsequent “profits” when the government offsets the cost of employees.

[@atluslibre9851]

Housing prices rose with rates last go round too. Why is this so surprising? Just look up case shiller and fed funds rate chart.

[@bobz4968]

The recession is rolling, not a rolling recession.

[@difigfs]

Adam, isn't it fair to say that construction is booming because many states are rebuilding through insurance and disaster funds due to all the natural disasters in the past 3 years? IAN, Kentucky flooding , NE floods, Hawaii fires, IDALIA, CA floods and Fires.... etc. .

[@JKlessig]

Love that boomer optimism.

[@carriecahill2130]

Don’t blame the boomers. Blame Yardeni.

[@PonziZombieKiller]

The 20 yr is moving now... oh the Humanity....

[@cyruschadrezzar]

operation no more rate hikes has been a success

[@cyruschadrezzar]

war vigilantes are back!

[@BoBear79]

BTW, when did you start allowing ads inside your videos? That surprised me.

[@msab930]

Asset prices (stocks, bonds, real estate, land, precious metals and Commodities ALWAYS return to the mean over time. All but commodities and precious metals haven’t come close to returning to their mean. As the lookouts screamed in the movie Titanic 🚢 “ICEBERG DEAD AHEAD”

[@dereksmith3779]

I'm pretty sure the liquidity we've seen is the .2 trillion coming out. Of reverse repo facility over last 12 months

[@dereksmith3779]

1.2 trillion

[@PonziZombieKiller]

Well I gotta go get some looting done.. see ya

[@evegreenification]

😂

[@aaron159r2]

Ed must be Alan Alda's optimistic younger brother.

[@one4change4thebetter]

Humans are resilient!

[@jeffy1551]

The speaker seems to think that average Americans can afford 8% mortgage rate at current housing prices. It just shows how disconnected they are from the average American working people.

[@viewerone]

Infuriating. I’m not sacrificing just to be told everything is fine. Economy, blow up already!

[@barrycalvert8219]

OMG... of course EARNING will be all time record high, because the REAL PRICE you pay for everything is 12% Just this year

[@glowwurm9365]

I thought that, printed trillions, prices up 12% so yeah earnings are up, now adjust that for inflation... last time i looked revenues were actually down as folks consuming less. PepsiCo is a classic example of this. Volume is down QoQ for 4 quarters but earnings are up because they charging ppl more.

[@DetVeg]

The longer, the better!!

[@trevoroertel1306]

Terrible opinion only based guest. Every time he was asked a concrete question he just brushed it off like your run of the mill politician. I don’t believe a word he spoke.

[@rupertsmith6097]

Decrease outlays and increase taxes - thats what we got in the UK. 😞

[@carriecahill2130]

It is impossible to get used to 8 percent mortgages looking at where wages are today. The employment numbers do not separate out people holding multiple jobs. Yardeni does not seem to be doing a deep dive in the numbers. His well off friends do not represent the majority of the US. There is massive inequality of wealth which is very destabilizing for our economy.

[@wheatcandle]

Ed is usually on the bullish side of the debate

[@nwpete]

For some reason I feel like we might see both 3500 and 5400 in S&P500 in 2024.

[@markanthony2495]

LOL anything is possible now.

[@erikbusenbark4865]

Why is everyone striking Ed?

[@glowwurm9365]

41:69 Banking crisis hasnt gone away, the FEDs just stepped in to back regional banks until March 24. They're still gonna have billions in unrealizes losses when the program ends.

[@sketchin6993]

I hope bond vigilantes trade turns into the widow maker trade. 😂🤣

[@michaeldonnellan8630]

Not a realistic analysis in my opinion: Regurgitating data with a poor appreciation of teh real situation. Comes from focusing on data as a primary use of time

[@TB-LivingFree]

DropComment &ThumbUp 4AIgos

[@RobWilliams007]

220, 221 - whatever it takes!

[@anonymouslyominous3]

Takes a long time to plan and bid and start large projects so yea lot of the ira prolly not distributed yet

[@cowabungaw9958]

RE inventory low? Refer to recent Melody Wright interview

[@joefer5360]

Wow. That background looks like a trap house. Lol. Look at what those venue coordinators are doing to my boy Adam.

[@scottmiller4838]

Ed said that wages are going up. For a while, I have been hearing that they are not. Where is this guy coming from?

[@PhantomO01]

Great interview; more guest like this pleaseeee! Yes I’m a Bull -always will be.

[@larryt3992]

I don't think Yardeni understands the Inflation Reduction Act. Most of it consists of tax incentives, not spending, so it wouldn't show up in any spending report (which is where he says he doesn't see any increase). Tax receipts are down, and maybe the IRA is one reason why. It sort of makes me wonder about his other analysis of the data, if he doesn't get this right.

[@johnbirman5840]

Tax receipts down. Not surprising that - what - $27,000 per employee was handed out to businesses who hung on to employees during lockdown? Billions per month! Still??!! Corporate Welfare is our Biggest cost by far. Cheers.

[@saltydog1196]

Delusional on real-estate 🤤

[@erikbusenbark4865]

No more Ed

[@STOICIZMUS]

Forever bullish. Happy person.

[@dudewheresmyguitar21]

Lol its definitely paid off for them the last 15 straight years

[@larryjoe1357]

Yes when you have zero interest rates and quantitative easing party time.@@dudewheresmyguitar21

[@cjswa6473]

Travel today is miserable and very expensive..when you come back and all you can say is..I saw strange animals and rode a donkey or Camel...who really cares

[@mikehundt4263]

Delusionally bullish

[@markmiddione6423]

I think there is some truth to boomers spending and part of the reason could be inflation; if you buy now it will be cheaper than next year

[@pmgfineart]

This guy is a talking bobble head