The Coming AI Startup Bust

[@jorgeroman2058]

More like an LLM bubble, unluckily now AI is synonym of LLM , we have a lot of AI and machine learning models doing more specific tasks from a few years now, for instance defect detection on chip manufacturing.

[@obsidianjane4413]

This. Even in these comments you see ppl conflating the two. The ML technology is far more important than just chatbots.

[@MisakaMikotoDesu]

It's definitely not just LLMs. Look at self driving, medical AI, landlord price fixing AI, etc. LLMs are in the limelight, but people have been using the "AI" buzzword for anything ML for years now.

[@danharold3087]

We had Rule Based Expertsystems doing useful work in the 80s. The iphone is stuffed with AI systems. Yes it is very sad that people say AI when they should be saying LLM.

[@alainportant6412]

like blockchain was synonym of crypto... youse a smartass nicca ☝🏿☝🏿

[@douglascodes]

Yup, they blew their load making hallucinating chatbots into the face of a really deep scientific field to make a few bucks. They won't get a second chance to make a first impression.

[@kevinbarry71]

Absolutely a bubble; and the fact that this keeps happening sheds doubt on the idea that humans are intelligent. The very idea of an AI celebrity is absurd.

[@БеловБорис-у4щ]

It’s not useless, just now one really cares about it or knows how make it useful. Now it’s a stage of “making biggest model” so best minds are focused on it. Then this approach will reach its limits or investors will be not so happy about it best minds will refocus on utilizing models. Then we will see real impact of AI.

[@ChristianDoretti]

Well, Humans are complex, but not what you would call intelligent, humanity and its concepts are indeed a summary of an intelligent civilization.

[@thomasfalcon6350]

Blame the money printing by governments, this is the only thing that fuels bubbles.

[@Onii-chan_2465]

The idea of it being absurd is a social construction which you are aware of but refuse to accept within your worldview. It is the very same social construction which others embrace that makes the idiocy possible.... I dont disagree with you though, it's absurd. There's certain things about us as human being that we are better off leaving a mystery.

[@2CSST2]

Yes it does show that humans are not very intelligent because we have plenty of braindead people like you who think something is absurd right up until it exists, showing their total lack of foresight. People like you used to think the idea of everyone carrying small computers with them was absurd, that would be cellphones now. What about the fact we fly people all around the world? You can speak almost instantly to someone on the other side of the world. If something is physically possible and technologically within reach, it will happen. Yet with all this the most obvious thing that WILL definitely happen like an AI celebrity is apparently beyond your puny tiny little imagination. Jesus this is sad.

[@AvenEngineer]

One must first pump, before they may dump.

[@mauzen_]

"I think we are in a AI bubble" big understatement

[@breezyx976]

If the bubble pops, maybe graphics cards will become easily affordable again?

[@lewiswood1693]

Nah crypto mining will suck them up again. Graphics cards will never be cheap again

[@phoenixfire6559]

The AI bubble refers to there being too many mouths and not enough slices of pie. But the pie is real and growing i.e. AI will still be here when the bubble bursts. Until a better technology than GPUs and CUDA come along to handle the AI, GPU prices will keep rising.

[@cinemaipswich4636]

Price to Earnings is important. If the PE is 10:1, that means it has already given you 10% return this year. You'll double your money in 10 years. If it's valuation is 200:1 that means Wall Street values it that way, even though no dividend has been paid so far, if ever. It's "fake it till you make it". Personalities are invited to join the Board of Directors. It's like Crypto Influencers selling junk.

[@obsidianjane4413]

AMZN

[@bryce.ferenczi]

CAGR is more important for early stage companies, you'll be doubling your (paper) gains a lot sooner than 10 years. PE is a good measure for giants that are well established and move slowly like GE and ExxonMobil.

[@thisnotdog]

the hdd boom is an apt comparison, these startups are built on the same logic. there is something strange about SMEs abandoning ship on monumental projects just to start smaller ones though.

[@Standbackforscience]

No real product, no real revenue, I guess.

[@zemodeus]

Ai bubble? That will take 2 more years at least.

[@marnig9185]

And all what they make is real warm air.

[@Zuranthus]

the guys working at the top AI companies are making $500k-$800k, they'll be fine

[@Memepolicedoggo]

He's not talking about the top AI companies, he's talking about all the little startups making glorified chatGPT wrapper apps, and getting paid in stock options

[@obsidianjane4413]

@@Memepolicedoggo No one said capitalism wasn't messy.

[@kabirkumar5815]

Lots are much smaller

[@Zuranthus]

@@Memepolicedoggo if that were the case he wouldn't be telling them to save their money, cause they're not making any

[@alpaykasal2902]

I dunno, I think there ill be an enormous value chain around "frontier data", the focused private data not scraped from the web.

[@wt29]

I saw a YT, I think it was Slidebean, that shows a symbiotic connection between the startups and VCs. The hype bubble(s) are a requirement to keep those industries turning over. We have been promised industry revolutions before - crypto, nfts, big data etc - all driven by VCs and in the end reduced to solid, small niches but not revolutionary.

[@SurmaSampo]

Big data is used across pretty much all large enterprises and is essentially the reason why we have cloud. It is now just another part of the mature enterprise architecture and tech stack. It is neither small nor niche.

[@JeffBilkins]

What are these crazy valuations even based on? There is too much money and greed just sloshing around.

[@incription]

Bubble pops when someone creates AGI

[@AIPretendingToBeHuman]

Meta is ruining the party for all these closed source solutions. Llama/Nemotron all the way 😊

[@kabirkumar5815]

Rn, DeepSeek is much more exciting to me

[@kabirkumar5815]

The Llama license is annoying to me

[@MasterBotttle]

They right, the AI hype was bubble all along.

[@dustinyoung3069]

*startup* bubble. AI is not hype, its just not something small players can generally capitalize on. The majors are doubling down on their infrastructure investments, but they've already acquired the startups they want in order to bring this next chapter in tech to monetization. There is real value in AI, you just need a $100Bn market cap in order to get to it.

[@illusion9423]

I always found it weird how soon it was up after bitcoin. As soon as bitcoin fell, it was AI. Its ridiculous

[@obsidianjane4413]

@@illusion9423 Crypto is still a bubble that hasn't fallen yet.

[@QwertiusMaximus]

When B-list and has-been celebrities star In Super Bowl ads for AI companies, it's time to sell.

[@adeptpeasant6161]

Ai is the new Narc on all our electronics

[@ghostmantagshome-er6pb]

You've been pretty good so far.

[@kabirkumar5815]

Why not a run that just massively benefits a few at the top?

[@bryce.ferenczi]

LLMs seem to be a comodity and is being given away for free by many large companies. None of these companies are worth anywhere near what their current valuation is and won't exist in a decade.

[@HughJanus-o3e]

5:17 old view of SF skyline right?

[@elmarsi]

thanks i rly love ur content, i hope u doing great !!! thanks from Arg

[@kabirkumar5815]

Sonnet seems to be doing o1 like stuff recently

[@kabirkumar5815]

This is almost completely an asspull based on some vibes and seemingly longer inference times

[@Derpy1969]

AI hasn’t figured out how to make money.

[@chrismasterith]

The hardware is good though.

[@Boko-Maru]

the best thing to come out of this

[@eamonjun]

FYI. Quantum computing is next.

[@obsidianjane4413]

Quantum computers is the same as fusion power, always a decade away. And funded similarly. AI is just software. It has no practical limitations.

[@OperationXX1]

AI software startups may be in a bubble, but the AI hardware boom is real. Hyperscalers are the key drivers of this growth, as they believe AGI is within reach. Over the past few years, we’ve seen significant improvements in LLM performance and accuracy, and if this trend continues, AGI could be achieved in the near future. Hyperscalers will continue investing in AI hardware as long as advancements in LLMs don’t plateau.

[@kabirkumar5815]

These unoriginal ones are 100% in a bubble, but its mostly due to VCs being bad at judgement and the AI space attracting hype beasts like very few others. Stuff like shrek sampler should be worth millions, but the guys making it seem to just be doing it for free behind anon accounts atm. The AI Celebrities thing is due to VCs being dumb and original again. What we will be able to see in the next two years, imo is the first serious AI companies who can actually bootstrap, as learning efficiency increases and the ability to make value increases.

[@cartmann94]

Just like the bust of N/F/Ts, my schadenfreude bristles with excitement. Hopefully a lot of these unnecessary ai apps like the one on Google search and the one Amazon uses (Rufus? Isn’t that the fat bloke from Street Fighter 4?) will be discontinued and moved to the wayside.

[@fullstackcrackerjack]

NFTs were never worth anything to begin with. Automation / AI is valuable from the start. AI in the form of Deep and Machine Learning has been here the whole time and has already proven it's value. LLMs are here to stay because it can make sense of random input. That's valuable. ChatBots are only one small public piece of that functionality.

[@user-pt1kj5uw3b]

Comparing AI/ML and NFTs is ridiculous.

[@xan-s6s]

I don't think so. Yes some things have to change. But AI startups will explode once utilizing the blockchain and 5G technology.

[@lakeguy65616]

AI is a GIANT bubble. AI is the future, just not yet....

[@obsidianjane4413]

But no one knows which path leads to that future. So the money flows in.

[@williamstephenson9006]

Can it learn logic?

[@rasimbot]

I read burst first

[@fboomerang]

New startups have hardly even gotten started yet. Investors shouldn't invest in companies that have nothing innovative or have no moat.

[@fafillionaire]

There's no where else to put the money. The Fed keeps bond yields artificially low so there's no reason to take part in safe investments as they won't outpace inflation. Save your money and lose it, buy bonds and lose it, buy value stocks and lose it, but growth zombie companies and only 95% chance you lose it but 5% chance you find a gold mine ... the choice is easy for people with excess capital.

[@andymouse]

Bit off topic but please do any of you no a piece of AI software that will let me download a picture then modify it I have a picture of a friends tennis court and he's away and I want to send him a picture of his court with a 'Sinkhole' in it !

[@ajax700]

Are you going to cover Intel calamitous state? Best wishes.

[@RichardFraser-y9t]

It's going to take a lot of the economy with it.

[@obsidianjane4413]

Not really. Its all VC and PE money. You have some retail investors but its all speculative investing. Money is still cheap historically. In fact there is far to much of it. Trillions of dollars could evaporate and it would not effect the real economy at all. Far less disruptive than if all the fever dreams of AI came true.

[@commonwombat-h6r]

The only good thing the I boom has brought so far is alphafold. Everything else is rubbish. AI generated code? Buggy. AI generated text? Slop. AI generated art? Soulless

[@loneIyboy15]

GPT4 is a pretty good translation assistant. Combined with an honest Human translator, it speeds up the whole process immensely while improving accuracy.

[@JudgeFredd]

AI is a bubble

[@williamstephenson9006]

AI can't reason. Should it drive cars?

[@gantech7788]

Have you looked at politics? Just because you can reason doesn’t mean it’s any good.

[@johnathanclayton2887]

What is reasoning?

[@kalaidoscopez5388]

Most people on earth can't reason either

[@obsidianjane4413]

LLMs don't drive cars. Machine learning apps are more accurate than human.

[@loneIyboy15]

@@kalaidoscopez5388 For instance, when presented with the undeniable evidence that Communism has never worked anywhere in the entire history of the world, a portion of the population will double down on their denial, often citing anecdotal "evidence" such as “this book says it still can and it wasn’t ‘true’ Communism anyway!”

[@YHauz-co]

YHauz is more useful than any AI. Expecting hunger in Africa Americans buy John Deer shares while Russia and China ship food there.

[@undivided_unified]

Damn, I was just hoping to get a wild paying job

[@Arctic-fox717]

What is gonna be left of modular nuclear reactors? Bust? No!

[@RichardFraser-y9t]

They haven't even started on making nuclear power stations, well, apart from Microsoft who were forced to pay for 20 years of power up front.

[@Arctic-fox717]

@@RichardFraser-y9t how about Oracle? They got the permits already according to Barrons..

[@ArdellaRomama]

Moja głowa w łóżku ma więcej gry niż mój profil randkowy i to jest w porządku💝

[@xp8969]

Report this scambot for spam ☝️

[@afterglow5285]

Fortune favors the brave

[@ras0k]

wake up babe new Asianometry just dropped!

[@jbdawinna9910]

I sub to like 4 different companies so I can cash in if any of them go big, just it’s just a sub and they only like me for my money, or only for my addition to the number of people they can say they have as a customer when they get the next round of funding

[@KenjiEspresso]

Internets a bubble too?

[@jbdawinna9910]

FIRST BOIIIIII

[@jbdawinna9910]

I LOVE THIS ASIAN GUY AND AI, let’s gooooo

[@ras0k]

@@jbdawinna9910 you're second but thanks for trying

[@AL-or3dn]

third :)

[@ras0k]

4th but nice try

[@ThadEfrenen]

The real mystery of adulthood is how often you're supposed to change your bedsheets👄