The Complete Tesla DCF Valuation Model! (2023 Edition)

In this video, I build a DCF valuation model for Tesla ($TSLA) stock. You can download free models and buy this Tesla model I built here: rareliquidcareers.com/models
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[@rareliquid]

Thanks for watching! If interested, you can download free models and/or buy the Tesla model I built in this video here: rareliquidcareers.com/models Also as I mentioned in the video, check out Wall Street Prep if you want to learn how to build financial models! ► Use code RARELIQUID for 20% OFF on any course! ► gv142.isrefer.com/go/rliquid/rareliquid/

[@MalcolmHamlin]

I feel investors should focus on under-the-radar stocks, considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises plummeting stocks that were once revered. I don't know where to go here out of devastation.

[@amospan14]

Really appreciate you walking through your entire DCF valuation excel model and answering all our questions buddy! =)

[@jackb616]

Amazing video. Thank you for sharing! Super helpful for analysts to learn financial modeling.

[@kyle199705111109]

Thank you very much! Great learning resources. Really apperciate it

[@user-of4dq4ij8g]

This is so dope thank you so much

[@JoeyTang-gj3pd]

Awesome video. Could you do a 3 statement model that links to a DCF as well ? Thank you in advanced

[@gwc_davian9491]

Awesome video. Would you be able to provide the excel sheet with the calculations that u did in there? it would be helpful to look into the data and understand it more thoroughly. Thank you

[@saaho6718]

Thanks again for the Model, I have 1 question regarding the WACC. The beta you input for the WACC, it seems really low. I saw on Yahoo it is at 2.03 at the moment, is there a reason you used a lower beta?

[@tonysu8286]

awesome bro

[@diegovalero8454]

hey man I like your video, thanks for sharing, however can you tell me where can I find all the financial information you used for the model? best rgrds

[@leil607]

thanks for video :) how did you find revenue for next years? did you predict it?

[@andreschlatter5453]

I would really appreciate it if you could attach the financials from fact set in the description so we can use them to follow along

[@ChocolateSax]

@rareliquid, why do you use market cap instead of equity held on balance sheet for cost of equity? I assume it's to tie the market perception of equity and gather the cost to issue new equity vs. what is fair value of the company?

[@thitiwatruethaisawad7922]

Good video, however, I wanna ask if equity should be Owner Equity in balance sheet instead of market cap.?

[@mennodejonge906]

are you ever going to do a new DCF valuation? what do you think of ASML? personally think it's a very interesting company to look into. anyways, great vid!

[@scalop3838]

can you do one model from scratch with forecasting on your own & then DCF?

[@valentinlegoupil-maier2473]

Where did you get all your historical values? Recommend any sites to get historical figures and projections?

[@joaoalmeidahenriques9357]

Forgot tax rate in WACC calculation! Great video overall

[@halloween4103]

How do you find the analyst's estimate for your assumptions? On Factset? Is it free? I can't see the page you were on. Btw I love your work; it helps me so much

[@yassirbenkouira4317]

No, FactSet is very expensive actually (around 1k per month). Usually, when you don't have these tools (like Blmbg or FS), you would use historical data. Although your models would not be very trustworthy (since very subjective).

[@kevinsuh5313]

lets go!

[@srdjanvukovic]

Would it be possible to get that excel? Excellent work!

[@fiftyoneindustries2]

Gday. Love the video mate. Might want to double check the share count though, looks way too high. I believe it is ~3.17 basic and ~3.48 diluted today

[@aishwaryapotdar1348]

Hi, please do a 3 statement model as well, finding that very hard, thank you!

[@alpercooper5565]

hi did you update your model after the financials release for 2022?

[@MohitSharma-hn7xx]

Hello rareliquid, from where did you get the data that you pulled into the sheet and how did you forecast it for the upcoming years? also, can you provide the excel data to link DCF model?

[@pujadevi8444]

Also interested in the answer to this.

[@feliperodrigues5235]

thanks for the vid. Question: do you really need to get 9 years of historical data?

[@misael_guedes]

can you do to a financial company?

[@JaxsonGomez-kp7hs]

Thank you

[@imrana10]

Hello thank you for everything you are doing but i am waiting for your video on the LBO model when will we get the video ?

[@rareliquid]

feb

[@Sharpyour_mind]

Yes please. Also, speak a bit like, I used to do this that at JPM. Most importantly, please guide, for an investment analyst internship what should we focus the most.

[@JayB948]

Looking back at these projections, they were spot on as Tesla looks to be trading at $246 right now

[@filipsalamon]

I see that your growth is steadily slowning down. Which wasn't the case in history as it's more volatile, growth is largely stimulated by ramping up production. And we have 2 relatively new factories still not at a 100% production capacity. We might not see a high growth in 2023 givet the current economic situation but I would be more optimistic for 2024. Berlin and Texas both have max capacity of 2mil cars annualy that's 4M combined. To me this seems too Streetlike. And given their past predictions they weren't very succesfull w/ Tesla. But still thank you for your work I've learn a lot.

[@olli999]

Thank you so much for the video. I was left wondering, how did you set up the switches for Revenue and EBIT values? Im not that great with excel yet, and can't seem to figure that out.

[@Deflnitlon]

I face the same problem too, my Revenue and EBIT does not affect the share price when I switch them

[@olli999]

@@Deflnitlon Hey dude, try this: on your EBIT estimate line (the one you are calculating) write the function =choose(a,b,c,d) where a is the switch (so either 1,2 or 3), and then b is the conservative case, c is the base case and d is the optimistic case. Note that these valies are the specific year’s estimates. So for year 2024, you have estimated three different EBIT margins, for each scenarios. These are the ones you should put in your choose() function. This chooses the margin, so if you multiply this with that years revenue, you should get the EBIT. Then when you play around with the switch, it should work. Let me know if you understood my bad explanation lol.

[@olli999]

@@Deflnitlon I posted a quick one minute video where I show how I have done it. Hope it helps

[@jamil_397]

How are you forecasting future revenue?

[@proinvestmentbanking]

Please make a video on Apple dcf 2023

[@melissahauge-pedersen4865]

Can you do DCF on Equinor?

[@ImASDFx2]

What’s the purpose of switches?

[@fadhlulmukhlishin333]

can you guys please tell me how he got the income statement and cash flow projection ?

[@alberttreffer]

Can u do another one? Price is insane now

[@pujadevi8444]

Where did you get those estimates for future revenue, ebit, etc..? I thought generally you were supposed to take the latest 10-K and make your own assumptions for growth rates.

[@tsrivastava5805]

From where we can get income and cash flow? what is the source?

[@deemahdee]

Do $PLTR

[@faristamaaryasa8719]

please do banking industry?

[@youngprince97]

DIS, UBER, and MS

[@raghavdhariwal6689]

Why did you take the 2023 corporate tax rate at 21% of EBIT? Should it not be 21% of EBT and therefore a little bit lower as a percentage of EBIT (depending on the amount of interest)?

[@tanujakodagi4563]

Can someone please tell me how we need to make assumption about expected revenue?

[@Noor2Gun]

can i get full excel file in this video?

[@rushikeshgadhave3777]

Can u share excel file

[@kino7524]

Do you teach how to do a DCF model from scratch but for absolute beginners ? Like not only explaining everything you do, but how to get ALL informations that allow you to build the DCF ? Like extracting company financial info etc. And all financial indicators etc.

[@abbasnasereddine3889]

you can learn from scratch from professor Aswath Damodaran he has a youtube channel and his website

[@olli999]

Exactly what Abbas said. Professor Damodaran teaches valuation at NYU, and all his lectures are fully uploaded to youtube for free.

[@raymansingh5702]

Hi! while calculating WACC you didn't multiple the (1- tax) maybe because of this WACC wasn't calculated properly... Can anyone please explain? Did I miss something?

[@markus2614]

Yeah he forgot and made a mistake. Without multiplying the tax rate he found the unlevered cost of capital (or pre-tax WACC). Although with Tesla it doesnt matter much, as they have so little debt. By multiplying the tax, you get a WACC of 12.02 instead of 12.03.

[@raymansingh5702]

@@markus2614 ohh so i think 0.01 wont make such difference

[@markus2614]

@@raymansingh5702 yeah true

[@stephenkowalski2448]

Who also remembers KZbinrs building many DCF models that said things like peloton were a buy at $150+? How did that work out. They also say Tesla was a buy at $400+? And bynd was a buy at $150+.

[@jjmm1415]

Hi, Ben! I've been watching your videos for some time, and I was wondering if DCF valuation is also used at a hedge fund. I talked to a hedge fund analyst in Hong Kong who mentioned they only use balance sheets and past cash flow records instead of DCF. Is this correct?

[@kyle199705111109]

would like to know too!

[@NNTechService]

@@kyle199705111109 same

[@daisyboisy]

I think your figures are wrong for Income Statement (revenue and EBIT) just checked every 10K for TSLA.

[@user.user.user8274]

n + n = (n+n)(n-1)

[@drustan6890]

this video didnt have to be 1.5 hours long

[@aarondelarosa3146]

Can you code it in Python?

[@Financein10]

yes but you need an api that can extract the data. Like financialmodelingprep

[@didiermunyabarenzi3797]

no shoutout to Dr Aswath Damodaran? tut tut

[@harryzhou3926]

why is it only 17 seconds long?

[@rareliquid]

my bad i was trimming the beginning where i’m waiting for the stream to start and i cut the entire video lol but now it’s back to normal

[@harryzhou3926]

@@rareliquid no worries, thanks for the update

[@tylernorby4939]

How do you say TSLA is going to a ton in through 2025 but then have a huge decline in 2026? There's no way this DCF has any value. I know it's due to analysts not publising all the latter years, but it makes this kinda useless.

[@999NINE99]

Tesla is difficult because it has the "Dell Factor". Fundamentals don't affect in the same way as others in its sector because of its cult like following. Eventually, it will drop to price with its peers. It should not be trading more than Ford and GM. Subtract all the cult members' anomalous activity and it would.

[@user.user.user8274]

f(n) = n(n+3) think always in the function that’s the objective, forget about the above or below results. What if you need to find 30=?, that’s why the function is very important. 🫡