The Economic Value under Future Ecological Scenarios of Coral Reefs for the Main Hawaiian Islands

By Ashley Lowe Mackenzie
Presented September 18, 2024
Coral reefs, characterized by their rich diversity, are productive ecosystems contributing to theprovision of a wide range of ecosystem services, including recreation, coastal protection, and marine biodiversity. Climate change impacts, including ocean acidification, pose a significant threat to coral reefs and the associated provisioning of ecosystem services. The spatial variability of these impacts underscores the need to develop more nuanced and spatially explicit tools in coastal ecosystem management that integrate ecological and socio-economic frameworks. To address this gap, we employ a spatial predictive Atlantis model to project changes in coral reef cover using downscaled predictions of three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate scenarios. We link the future scenarios to welfare impacts from the recreational value of coral reefs with an explicit spatial component needed for management prioritization across heterogeneous landscapes. Our process considers both site-specific characteristics and income distributions across islands to bridge the gap between ecological consequences and economic considerations. We also highlight environmental justice concerns by identifying underserved and disadvantaged communities important for policy consideration. Our findings can inform policy decisions and resource allocation strategies promoting a more comprehensive and holistic approach to ecosystem management in the MHI.