The Final Defeat | Jiang Wei's Northern Expeditions Let's Talk Lore E10

[@fallenprince7591]

It's worth noting that the "Small bites" approach of the Northern Expeditions also allowed Wei to adjust to Shu-Han's tactics and learn from previous mistakes, as well as eliminate weaknesses like incompetent and disloyal commanders. Perhaps fewer, but larger scale campaigns could have been more effective at catching Wei off guard and capitalizing on successes.

[@SeriousTrivia]

Well the premise here is you just have to be better than whoever Wei could throw at you. Once it became clear that Deng Ai was just better than Jiang Wei, it’s over no matter which way you look at it. Zhuge Liang original intent was one big successful campaign but then Jieting happened

[@wcsdiaries]

Do you think if shu still had experienced generals as good as the old ones like zhuge liang, zhao yun, etc that these canpaigns wouldve gone differently and possibly saved shu? Or was deng ai just that good, and weis resources so great that it wouldn't have mattered? ​@@SeriousTrivia

[@SeriousTrivia]

@wcsdiaries It wouldn’t have matter. Wei had enough resources to not need their generals to be outstanding. Even if they were as horrible as Wang Jing, Wei can withstand a few mistakes so I don’t think a few talented generals would have changed much. Just to put it to scale. Shu Han maybe can muster up an army of one hundred troops if they committed their whole Kingdom to it. Just in one internal rebellion in Huainan where Wei forces fought Wei forces it was two hundred thousand troops fighting two hundred thirty thousand troops.

[@wcsdiaries]

@@SeriousTrivia geez. So really the only chance was an alliance with Wu. Sun quan was a fool to break the alliance at fan castle!! That was the turning point imo.

[@Blisterdude123]

@@wcsdiariesHonestly it goes back further than that. Quan's choice there was a consequence of a multitude of bad decisions made by Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang. Sun Quan's 'betrayal' didn't happen in a vacuum.

[@freebritishfox]

Time for Zhong Hui and Deng Ai's Lore time!

[@rodneyjasmin4800]

jiang wei was probably seething so hard during this time. guo huai finally succumbed to old age, but deng ai basically replaced him as jiang wei’s nightmare

[@futbolista24]

I think we could point to a couple of key events which sent Shu-Han down the path to its eventual destruction. While the usual obvious one as stated in another comment would be the loss of Guan Yu and Jing (and aptly so, it completely shattered the original Northern Campaign strategy that Zhuge Liang wanted to employ AND in one way or another led to the deaths of Liu Bei and Zhang Fei), but I'd say that their fate was locked in even earlier with the loss of Pang Tong during the Yi campaign.

[@ChhalySamsokrith]

I think Pang Tong lose is not as fatal as lost of Jing and Guan Yu. Coz for Liu Bei, even after Tong's death, he was still winning (conquest of Yi and Hanzhong). His force was super high in morale. Then came the news of the fall of Jing and death of Guan Yu. Liu Bei decided to attack Wu which led to his death and loss of many soldiers and resources (that takes year to gather). If Liu Bei hadn't invaded Wu, but chose to attack Wei first, it would be much more interesting since Wei was still newly established (since Cao Cao died not so much later) thus people's support was still questionable, thus he might make some crucial gain. Of course, Wei (and Cao Cao) would know how to induce Wu to attack Shu's rear... but all I want to say is that if Liu Bei was leading the northern expedition, it would had been a very different story for Zhuge Liang and Jiang Wei (maybe).

[@Blisterdude123]

I think the much overlooked KEY catalyst was Liu Bei's refusal to seize Jing after Liu Biao's death. It meant Jing was left to Cao, and then became a point of contention undermining the Wu/Shu alliance. And it remained one, through Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang's repeated scheming and conniving as they had to fend off Wu's attempts to claim it. If Liu Bei had claimed it, and then sought an alliance with Wu, the partnership would have been one of equals. Instead, Wu was left shafted, and feeling manipulated by a weaker party with Jing being a bargaining chip they already felt they were owed, having fought for it against Cao Cao. Stemming from that, you have Liang's poor judgement of character in assigning Guan Yu to hold Jing, and his arrogance and failure to maintain good relations with Sun Quan, leading to the loss of Jing. And then that led to Liu Bei's idiotic war of vengeance on Wu, wasting a vast amount of Shu's lesser strength. Which then cost Liu Bei's life, leading to his useless son becoming a pitiful emperor Liang was stuck nannying. And ultimately, Liang's futile campaigns, which by that point had no hope of success at all.

[@ChhalySamsokrith]

@@Blisterdude123 Its hard for Liu Bei to say yes to Liu Biao offer coz of 2 reasons: 1. his whole political persona based on benevolence and han restoration, if he takes Liu Biao's office it would tarnish his reputation since he would be seems as an opportunistic and favored retainers, rather than a virtousous man building up his career. I really recommend you read about Chinese view on Virtue "de" and how all Chinese monarches of the past must claim it in order to rule. 2. Jing's court is dominated by two powerful clans: the Cai and the Kuai. They did not favor Liu Bei, so had Liu Bei taken the offer, it would leads to internal war and it just weaken his side, ravage the province/people and as mentioned above, tarnish his reputation. Also lastly, again, its Liu Bei's idea to appoint Guan Yu to oversee Jing Province, not Zhuge Liang.

[@Blisterdude123]

@@ChhalySamsokrithI entirely undertand Liu Bei's thinking, and his reasons, but it doesn't change the facts. His refusal to seize Jing was the catalyst for all that came after. The revival of Han was doomed to failure from that point.

[@ZelgadisEddy]

Thank you very much for the series about Jiang Wei's campaigns, it was very explanatory (especially this last episode). I would like to especially thank you for removing that agreement with subscribers regarding the like for the release of videos (faster or less fast), unfortunately this final part of the story is not very interesting to fans, but you had the courage of being one of the few channels to produce videos on the topic. I would say that the public's interest in Sima Yi's coup d'état is much more due to the fact that the Jin dynasty became playable in dynasty warriors than to the general interest in this final period of history (which is a shame). Whenever I hear about the final part of the Shu kingdom I come across the phrase: "Huang Hao corrupted the kingdom" or "Huang Hao, the emperor's favorite eunuch, monolized power" but from his short explanation we can get an idea that things weren't that simple. There were ambitious young officers wanting their "place in the sun" (even if that meant allying themselves with people of dubious reputation), there were so-called gentry clans (always them, right? always thinking about their own well-being and damn the kingdom). Anyway, thank you very much for your series, sorry for the long comment and I look forward to the next one.

[@tonys9397]

As a Han and Shu Han fanboy the fall of shu always hurts my soul 😭 Poor Jing Wei whether by unfavorable odds or his own deficiencies the job was just too big for him . Its a shame that the newer members of Shu Han never got a crack at the northern expedition. I wonder if Liu Xuan as emperor and Zhuge Zhan, Zhuge Shang, luo Xian, Huo Yi and Dong Jue among other younger talents could have made more progress working as a team.

[@limcw6092]

Starting recently to read the 3K lore after playing a lot of total war 3k and as a Wei guy I’ve been waiting for this part hehe What a campaign this was, heroism and bravery from both sides with high highs and lowest of lows. While it didn’t turn the tide for Shu Han it did make for one hell of a story for future generations like us to learn and read.

[@JohnSmith-us9fv]

Awesome video and analysis, very interesting!

[@giangvu2335]

Yah Northen expedition startegy wasnt the issue. I think Shu-Han fate was decided by Guan Yu defeat at Jing province

[@damonslayer5248]

I am not too sure about that because I think Shu Han situation was able to still somewhat salvage it. However liu bei went on a revenge war, and not listen to Zhuge Liang advice of not going to war. We all know what happen to that war. It also resulted in his death which I believe was the decline of Shu Han, and some might argue actually Zhuge Liang death was the decline, but honestly I think Zhuge Liang was just prolonging the inevitable.

[@Blisterdude123]

Shu-Han's fate was decided when Liu Bei refused to seize Jing province after Liu Biao's death. You can trace all events that followed back to that point.

[@vinhny2406]

I know Zhuge Zhan didn’t have much time to prove himself but would be as capable as his dad ?

[@SeriousTrivia]

I mean in his one instance to prove himself, he died and along with him, Shu Han died, so can't really say too much about him

[@vinhny2406]

@@SeriousTriviahmmmm such a tragic end to the son of a legend but he gave up his life for the realm just like his dad did

[@Atom523]

@@SeriousTrivia Plus he ignored Huang Chong's advice to rush to defend the more mountainous terrain before dying. He didn't really have any experience to learn from.

[@ChhalySamsokrith]

@@SeriousTrivia but wasn't Shu force at that time low on morale and poor in training already, not to mention they don't have many people in the army (just my thinking)

[@sulimanal-souri5998]

Amazing Serie, thank you!

[@joe718gt4]

Here comes the hurt for Shu Han

[@herbangm.naibaho5405]

I used to read Romance of Three Kingdom till around chapter 104 The Falling star. I try to keep with ST till Jiang Wei's Northern Expeditions simply because for years I have no idea about how its going down hill, but now thats enough. Its a time to go and find another heart broken novel, Water Margin 😭

[@xenogunner]

Jiang Wei's expeditions are riddled with lots of missed opportunities

[@orirotem2298]

This was cool series😎🥇

[@christofellolaroh7262]

Thanks for the series, btw what happened to the nanman region in this time period?

[@SeriousTrivia]

stayed largely under Shu control with minor rebellions from time to time

[@jamesthach2504]

Hey Serious Trivia, 1. Is there any records of Jiang Wei's health during the his Northern Expeditions and what was the first sign of concern? In the 1994 tv series he keep having stroke and coughing off blood during the fall of Shu. 2. Is Zhuge Zhan's mother was Lady Huang/Huang Yueying or by Zhuge Liang's second unrecorded wife?

[@SeriousTrivia]

1. No records of any health issues. I think the show was just trying to show that he was giving it his all. 2. It’s impossible to know but it’s likely given he was born so late that it was not Huang

[@jamesthach2504]

I see.

[@oohlala444]

Imo all in all the Northern Expeditions, led by Jiang Wei and especially by Zhuge Liang, were overall successful but only served to prolong the inevitable. Once the Jing Province was lost, it was a matter of time before Shu Han was swallowed up by either Wu or Wei since both were far bigger kingdoms then Shu Han. Plus, the fall of Jing Province directly led to the death of Guan Yu and the revenge campaign of Liu Bei which sped up the decline of Shu Han greatly.

[@Zooasaurus]

Will you delve deeper into Shu-Han's internal politics or will that be covered in the Fall of Shu-Han's series?

[@SeriousTrivia]

that will just be included in the Fall of Shu Han. there was not a lot issues within the internal politics aside from the pro-surrender Yi province gentry faction vs the more hardline Han loyalists

[@LongLe-qr8es]

Hello ST, is there anything you can say about Yan Yu’s skills/talents? I know he was a pretty good administrator for the south and act as the border commander between Shu & Wu for a while but there’s not much else about him that I can find online

[@SeriousTrivia]

That’s pretty much the gist of it

[@LesegoDlamini]

Lore time

[@orirotem2298]

Lets see what comes next what series we get 👀

[@SeriousTrivia]

Check out the community post!

[@orirotem2298]

@@SeriousTrivia i will

[@Furiasu]

My Lord (Serious Trivia), since today is such an important day (Valentine's Day), I feel that my time is right. I write this letter to inform you that I will be carrying out a dangerous and very important mission (I'm going to confess to the girl I like). Wish me luck general, for if I succed I will become a ray of hope for the rest of the soldiers. I will report back soon. - General of 5 men, Furiasu.

[@arbiter7x]

my guy really tried kongming's empty fort strategy using the whole of hanzhong 🤡

[@martinmarigomen2767]

Poor zhuge family

[@ViveLeEmpereur]

Zhuge Dan got his revenge by his descendants becoming the Emperors of Jin.

[@ViveLeEmpereur]

I enjoyed this series. However, I strongly disagree with your overall thesis. I think the Northern Campaigns were a disaster, specifically Jiang Wei's. Zhuge Liang in a way got lucky that his first Northern Campaign and specifically the Battle of Jieting didn't result in catastrophic losses. If he had Duan Gu level casualties at the outset, the whole plot might have been abandoned after the first try. After that his campaigns were more measured and he didn't over commit, so he had modest gains, which is better than nothing, and better than courting catastrophe. He continually struck down Wei Yan's plan to take Chang'an because it was too risky in his view. Jiang Wei without a leash was way too reckless. To me, the biggest disaster for Shu-Han was Fei Yi's assassination because then Jiang Wei was completely untethered. In my view, Li Te had the right of it when he descended into Yizhou, looked at the terrain, and stated that Liu Shan must have truly been a complete idiot to somehow lose the land given the defensiveness of the terrain. Building up strength and maintaining a defensive posture until an actually dire existential threat menaced Wei, in my view, would have been the better play. Some things we can only know in hindsight, but if Shu-Han had actually stayed in defense mode, in my view they could have withstood the eventual invasion that took them out, or it wouldn't have been launched in the first place. At some point, in my view, the volkerwanderung that occurred historically in Western Jin times would have been a disaster for Wei or Jin or whatever dynasty was in power at the North, in a hypothetical where Han remains defensive. And then as Wei or Jin collapsed, then and only then, maybe Han could have launched a bid to become the third Han by making use of the devastation wrought by the Five Hu and other ethnic non-Chinese groups pouring into China, even absent any sort of patricidal princely civil war on the North's side.

[@SeriousTrivia]

Your statement is just an outrageous statement of hindsight that I don't even know how to response properly. First, I agree with your position that if the goal was just for Shu Han to survive, then holing up in Shu and just try to play defense would be a better option than the northern expeditions. But that is clearly not their goal or their founding principle as they exist to be a continuation of the Han. If the Han only has one ninth of their previous holding, then they are no longer the Han. At that point, it is better to get destroyed then continue. Furthermore, your point is based on an assumption that nothing ever goes wrong internally for Shu Han. No political battle for the court, no heir battle for the throne, no crazy or idiotic Emperor (Sun Hao or Sima Zhong), and no internal rebellion for the period that they just wait in Shu. This is on top of keeping the civilians happy when you would have to constantly ask them to defend a throne that offers them very little. Whatever amount of land and wealth that Shu Han can offer, the outside state can offer more given the size difference. Without a strong ideology to drive loyalty, it would just be a matter of time before a border general gets bribed to defect after being stationed endlessly at a mountain path while coming under annual attacks from whatever the outside force would be (Wei or Jin) as if you never attack, they never have to invest resources into defending a vast border and all military resources then will be pooled into attacking. Lastly, the most insane part of your argument is that the best option is to wait for the Wu Hu or an external threat that is so strong that it could topple this power that your can't topple and then be expected to defeat everyone to win. This is precisely the story of how the Southern Song invited the Mongols to wipe out the Jin. You can't beat the wolf. A tiger comes and wounds the wolf and somehow you need to kill this tiger and the wounded wolf. The time frame is also ridiculous. For anyone who has to live through the actual events and not just write about them online after reading a history book that spans centuries, no one is going to be telling their Emperor or themselves that their best bet is to hole up in Shu for one to two centuries for a possible opportunity that will surely come. People live maybe 60 years if they are lucky in this period, telling your Emperor that your best plan is to wait 10 generations so your great-great-great....grandson can emerge out of this mess is the formula to get yourself executed. It is like if someone in Ukraine today who decides that the human cost of winning this war against the invading Russian army is not the smartest decision, and that if we just accept that these lands are lost and just wait a few generations until some sort of existential crisis like a US Russian nuclear war comes around, then we can take much these homelands and perhaps even much more. See how many people sign up for that or how fast that person gets shot for treason or hung as a Russian agent.

[@eliu868]

Just wanted to point out that Wei Yan's plan as it is popularly imagined is fictional. Historically, Wei Yan's plan was only recorded in Wei Lue, a Wei history book, and there is no evidence that this was actually seriously proposed or "repeatedly struck down." If anything, this just shows that this was a plan well-known to Wei defenders. My theory is that it was actually a smear campaign against Xiahou Dun's son who Wei Yan called a coward in this account. Remember, all of Chinese historical records are political in nature. There is another record of Wei Yan suggesting an alternate attack route, but it is not at all like the Ziwu Valley idea. In fact, the record of this does not have any mention of Wei Yan's path, just that he would meet up with Zhuge Liang's main army at Tong Pass. This is actually east of Chang'an, so again it would appear that historically, Wei Yan didn't have any problems with Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition route through Qishan. Zhuge Liang would take Chang'an with his main force, while Wei Yan joins him for the final push through the Central Plains.

[@DeardropsRiho]

No need to wait so far in time, just resisting until Tufa Shujineng's revolt in 270 would've allowed Shu Han far more possibilities than Jiang Wei's wasteful and catastrophic campaigns ever did. Unfortunately, for Shu, someone removed Wei Yan's defences allowing their state to fall... Who was it again? Can't believe there will be some discussion about the "merits" of such a decision when it failed from the first attempt.

[@DeardropsRiho]

@@SeriousTrivia For us, those are just numbers but they are also human lives, do you realize the suffering Jiang Wei did to his own people? Imagine you have some dude who is leading you to his eleven campaign when the previous ten all failed. Imagine the pain when some glory seeker forces you to go on another of his catastrophic campaign.

[@ViveLeEmpereur]

@@SeriousTrivia I agree on three things. First, there is an element of hindsight bias in my argument. I admitted this myself. Second, there would be drawbacks and potential setbacks with a defensive strategy. But there were also drawbacks and potential (and ultimately definite) setbacks with the Northern Campaigns. So that's not really the best argument in their favor. Third, I agree that there are potential downsides to allying with barbarians against Wei. However, Jiang Wei himself tried this so I don't think that arguing against this idea makes the most sense either. Let's explore this discussion a little more. In a scenario where Han adopts a more defensive posture, it is less likely that Han is defeated outright. Wei might not even choose to invade as it would be more difficult to break through Hanzhong. Because it is less likely that Han is defeated outright, it is also less likely that Wu is defeated outright, even despite their many internal struggles. Jin delayed invading Wu for many years, and ultimately succeeded partially by launching a multi-pronged attack including down river from the West. In this scenario, Wu and Wei are likely still going to be fighting past AD 280. Finally, while Wei or Jin or whichever court in the North holds power has less territory and thus technically less military power, it also is actually in better shape in all likelihood to deal with the imminent invasion by various peoples, and to be clear, I do absolutely believe this was going to be inevitable. Due to colder temperatures on the steppe and various other factors, China was going to be facing the migration of these peoples at some point. However, absent the War of Eight Princes, and even with a tripartite divided China, it might have fared better. At the same time, if the plan is to ally with barbarians against Wei/Jin/whatever kingdom rules the North, there would be some opportunities to do so given time, or to absorb some of those peoples (with some admitted high risk of them turning their sword against their benefactors; I do acknowledge it's possible that Li Te, etc. in a scenario where Han survives, could easily do exactly what Liu Bei did to Liu Zhang if openly allowed into Yizhou) In terms of convincing others at court to adopt a more defensive posture, it isn't impossible to imagine. It's literally what Fei Yi essentially did. He allowed some latitude, but overall, he wasn't willing to overcommit to a Northern Campaign in the same way as Zhuge Liang. So I don't think it's impossible that given different leadership or even just absent the assassination of Fei Yi, the kingdom might have adopted a more defensive position. The idea of it being outrageous for a minister to suggest that the kingdom should attempt to pool resources, maintain a defensive position, and wait for a solid opportunity is imo not that outrageous. There likely would still be periods in which one side or the other committed more to an offensive campaign. It would have been impossible at the time Zhuge Ke launched his massive attack to refuse to commit forces to support this attack. It would have also been difficult if, during a rebellion such as the rebellions in Huainan, Han failed to attempt to capitalize in some way. Regardless, I think there is much more margin for error with a more defensive stance than with repeated Northern campaigns. Even Jiang Wei's "wins" really failed to amount to much. I feel that you are much too charitable to him in terms of how you evaluate what counts as a win versus what counts as a defeat or at the very least, something akin to a wash. In my view, his northern campaigns were a complete disaster and accelerated the demise of his kingdom. Given the defensive terrain available, they would have lasted longer barring the wasteful campaigns, in my view.

[@marshmilo4588]

😢

[@jherome95]

Do you think historical Liu Shan is an actual fool or smarter than what history portrays him as

[@SeriousTrivia]

He is definitely not a fool. History does not really portray as a fool either. He is often seen as weak and inept but that is not in my opinion being foolish. Online memes like to simplify him as a fool perhaps but like he is far from the worst Emperor of this time period much less the whole spectrum of Chinese Emperors.

[@nobblkpraetorian5623]

I'd say that being able to stay as emperor for 40 years is proof of his capabilities. He was also not a puppet emperor, even though he was easily influenced by others, he still made decisions. If you wanna see awful rulers, I would say that Sun Hao (last Wu emperor) was the worst.

[@Dakaork]

@@nobblkpraetorian5623 well, if you go further into the chaos era between Han and Tang you will find a tons more completely psycho and despotic "Chinese" emperors. Even in the fully recognized list of Chinese emperors you still have people who outshine Sun Hao in bloodthirstyness (Yongle, Hongwu etc.) or debauchery (Sui Yang Di, Wanli)

[@nobblkpraetorian5623]

@@Dakaork I'm only talking about Three Kingdoms emperors. If it's about all Chinese emperors it would take days to list all the bad ones. I would put Emperor Yang of Sui or Qin Er Shi as the worst emperors in Chinese history.

[@tonys9397]

Not a fool imo but just very incredibly passive. He basically let everyone do everything for him and didn’t show much initiative. True he probably didn’t feel he had the abilities to say plan expeditions himself or handle court affairs. His upbringing probably had a lot to do with this but still it was detrimental to the dynasty. Theres an incident post Fall of Shu where liu shan told sima zhao he didn’t miss his kingdom at a party and apparently this convinced zhao he was a fool but others have pointed out he may have purposely made an insensitive remark to make sima zhao dismiss him as a threat. His court was also free of messy succession crisis and palace coups so clearly he wasn’t stupid just very passive in peace time he probably would’ve been an ok emperor and wed all be praising but his country needed someone more involved for the war