The Framework of New EU UK Relations: High Level Debate with Sir Ivan Rogers & Ambassador Tom Hanney

[@johnjeanb]

France here: the critical point is that the UK political team is not really interested in a working deal (observe how many negative actions have been made to torpedo any true working together). The result is the EU initially started dealing with Brexit in a positive - problem-solving attitude is now moving toward a much harder position where the UK will suffer mightily. The UK-EU trade is ravaged, the TCA is on hold until the WA (NIP) is complied with, the services (Financial services) will be more about how to have them transferred to the EU than any equivalence to UK-based firms. We are getting close to a point where the UK will get NOTHING. European citizens were initially very friendly with the UK but are now resenting the hostile attitude and will now support a very firm (intransigent) dealing with war-waging diplomats like Mr Frost

[@YouD0ntSay]

I underwrite that post. 100%. Very accurate analysis. The Tories want that hostility, they need it. It's the life blood of their divisive blame game, they have to stoke resentment and fear of a bullying EU among the gammons to secure their votes.

[@xIl7avantlIx]

@@YouD0ntSay This goverment want us in the EU why not take such a position to give thier EU pals exscuses to leave the U.K with nothing.Snakes at work.

[@YouD0ntSay]

@@xIl7avantlIx Which government wants whom in the EU? The UK government doesn't want anybody in the EU. And neither does the EU, apart from a few people to run their own financial services maybe.

[@xIl7avantlIx]

@@YouD0ntSay I don't think Gb will exist in ten years and will be a state of the EU.Your buying into smoke and mirrors.

[@YouD0ntSay]

@@xIl7avantlIx What did I buy into? Please explain your words or nobody discuss with you. You could with the simple question above.

[@oak699]

Maybe the EU no longer concerns itself with the UK, partly because many in the EU now expect the UK will no longer be around in five to ten years as it is now?

[@gloin10]

Well duh? Most of us who take an interest in the topic can see that Brixit has exposed the huge strains which are tearing the UK apart. And I doubt whether the UK itself will survive more than ten years.

[@YouD0ntSay]

@@gloin10 True. Brexit also has exposed a hostility, xenophobia and anti everything non-English that we would never found possible only a few years ago. England will never be seen the same again. Scotland OTOH stands out!

[@therealrobertbirchall]

@@gloin10 i hope it is much much less then 10 years, saor Alpa

[@gloin10]

@@therealrobertbirchall Ach, it will need at least two to four years to get the ball rolling regarding Scottish independence... The English and the other varied Unionists will squeal and stall, and paint a picture of a Scotland transformed overnight into a blighted wilderness where the few shattered survivors eat their own children... But then the Scots have heard all this before, haven't they?

[@therealrobertbirchall]

@@gloin10 that sounds like it could be England the way things are going there

[@erwinvereecken6031]

From Belgium here, it’s not worth the effort negotiating now. No deal, WTO, and a cool down period of a couple of years.

[@YouD0ntSay]

Well, the zero tariffs for goods is very positive for us, so no need to cancel it ourselves. But I agree we shouldn't make any more concessions. None. And if the UK is stupid enough to quit the TCA, so be it.

[@jetaddicted]

Just a couple? Make it a handful, thick headed they are, on the other side…

[@therealrobertbirchall]

No wonder the 27 states of the EU are rooting for Scottish independence, playing the long game for the disingenuous and disreespectfull way the UK government has behaved over the exit 'negotiations'.

[@johnjeanb]

@Robert Birchall "No wonder the 27 states of the EU are rooting for Scottish independence" Totally missing the spot here. All 27 EU states are friendly to Scotland but that's it. Rule number 1 in the EU is never mess in another nation's internal politics. So we see it as a purely internal British isle issue. We (EU) are not obsessed by the "Divide and Conquer" rule. Our project is about peace.

[@klausratsmann2451]

German here.. I believe from a pure trade perspective, including financial trade relationships, I don‘t see a positive UK perspective. I am convinced that the EU is highly interested in maintaining or reestablish the other agendas, like security issues, defence etc. Unfortunately the development of normal relations will take decades. However, the EU has a strong interest. Trade will not be priority 1.

[@saddoncarrs6963]

A very interesting discussion, as are most discussions on brexit. I did find it odd, however, that when Ivan Rogers was talking about expecting short term problems between the UK and the EU, with perhaps better relations in around ten years time, he never thought to mention the possibility that there may not be a UK in ten years.

[@christianfournier6862]

@Saddon_Carrs= Frenchman here. I have the utmost respect for the judgement of Sir Ivan Rogers and I think that, even on the matter of the future Independence of Scotland, he is right not to consider it as a probable outcome. Some people in France, including me, would intellectually be glad to see an independent Scotland (in memory of the ‘Auld Alliance’); but practically it is another matter altogether. A Scottish independence may have been conceivable if both England and Scotland had remained within the EU; but a fully sovereign Scotland alongside a fully sovereign England would create a host of problems compared to which Brexit is child’s play! The main of which being: •-Security problems: the island would be almost indefensible if two fleets and two air-forces were acting independently (one of which - which one by the way? - being nuclear). The French have had the same problem for a century and a half: all successful invasions went through our smaller but fiercely independent ‘neutral ally’, Belgium! •-Economic problems: I’m from the Offshore Industry and am well aware that - contrary to Norway - Scotland did not benefit enough from the Oil boom. This might explain much of the deep resentment that the Scots are demonstrating against London. But, now that the fields are more than half depleted, are the Scots in a position to build a strong economy around Offshore oil? And, if not, around what else without help? •-Identity problems: Even though the memory of Anglo-Scottish wars is strong in Scotland, comradeship at war has been equally strong for at least two centuries. The Scots have been full participants in Britain’s wars and its colonial ventures and have populated as many far-away territories as the English: the Scots are bound to the Anglosphere by multiple links of all kinds. All of this leads to a conclusion that - barring sheer ideological stupidity from the Tories (which is possible but not likely in such a grave matter) - the UK Parliament and Government have almost no other choice than to pursue a strategy of winning back the hearts and souls of the Scots by all possible means. These include but are not limited to: •-Installing a true devolution in Scotland (& in Wales for that matter). However bitter the pill appears, it must absolutely be swallowed. This won’t please English backbencher MPs and it will be a test of Downing street’s mettle and hold over its majority. I’m not sure Boris will be up to the task, but he may well be the best equipped for it: his total lack of principles and total flexibility would be handy, if he can last long enough and refrain his propension to deviousness! The Scots will at first be tempted to make an inordinate use of their devolved powers, and an iron rule will be needed to keep the English MPs in line with this policy… •-Showering the Scots with money and true growth through short and long term investments. A kind of ‘affirmative action’ from the London financial powerhouses towards a long-neglected country which is now in a situation to cost them much more (directly and indirectly) if a hostile secession occurs. •-Waging a charm offensive from the English towards the Scots. Maybe the most difficult part of the strategy, since the Tories have spent the last two scores of years drumming up a particularly xenophobic sense of Englishness in their electorate. But, here again, this is an inescapable step which must be taken whatever the cost in repressed pride. The ways and means to avoid secession are clear; and the English intelligentsia is smart enough to know what is to be done. I am convinced that it will be done, even if this represents a 180° reversal of the Downing street present policy of downplaying devolution as much as it can. From a European point of view, the partition of the UK would be a short term vindication, but a long term ailment. If the UK is ever to rejoin the EU (some thirty years from now at the earliest) we Europeans would prefer a single entity to join rather than sixty and six million separately: “Small countries which are in” are an integral part of the EU fabric, but the EU governance is simpler if their number does not grow! As for Northern Ireland, this is another matter altogether: Ireland is not the same island! __ .

[@saddoncarrs6963]

@@christianfournier6862 I would agree that it may well be the case that the UK will exist in ten years, but there is also considerable evidence to indicate that it won't - and it would have been pertinent in this discussion to at least have mentioned it. In the last UK general election the Welsh electorate voted in a majority of Labour MPs, the Northern Irish voted away from unionist parties and in Scotland the tories lost more than half their seats. The English, meanwhile, overwhelmingly voted for a particularly right wing tory and unionist party. Not a recipe for a cohesive union. The "English intelligentsia" do not run the UK - the tories do (along with, I'd suggest, the English right wing media who cheer them on) and there is no indication of them love-bombing Scotland anytime soon. If by some miracle they do, it would likely be seen by most Scots for the bribe that it is, and have little effect on opinion north of the border. The genie is out of the bottle. You may have watched footage of the 1966 World Cup. England fans, to a man, proudly waving the union flag. England fans don't do that anymore. And you may remember the queen's 25th, 50th and 60th anniversaries for her accession to the throne? Public holidays, street parties, flags flying from every lamppost. Then in 2007 there was the 300th anniversary of the union of Scotland and England - no parties, no flags, it barely got a mention in the press. It is not a celebrated union either side of the border and hasn't been for some time. Those Scots seeking independence are fully aware that North Sea oil is no longer the golden egg it once was - Scotland is very much moving on to greener energy which it has in abundance. There would undoubtedly be economic consequences for separating with the UK, especially in the initial stages, but the Scots are well able to take care of themselves. There was a strong economic argument for Ireland to remain in the UK 100 years ago. They still left. There was a strong economic argument for colonies to remain in the British empire after WW2. They still left. There was a strong economic argument for the UK to remain in the EU. It still left. Scotland will get by - just like other small successful independent nations like Denmark, Ireland, Iceland, the Netherlands, Finland etc. In 2014 the Scottish electorate voted to remain in the UK and in 2016 they voted to remain in the EU. They were then TOLD that they couldn't have both and then TOLD that they weren't to be given a choice as to their future. For many Scots, that was the last straw with regard to Westminster governance. A serious democratic deficit there and one which I would suggest may well lead to a break up of the UK within 10 years.

[@christianfournier6862]

@Saddon_Carrs= Your points are quite valid. However, I don’t think that the top management of the Tory party is as obdurately jingoïstic as its electorate is. Granted that the Tories and their “influencers” (press included) have for years up up to now whipped up English nationalism; the whole question is: can they make a U-turn and will their electorate follow? If they don’t, I agree that Independence will follow within ten years. But, frankly, I don’t think that N°10 and the UK Government will be that blinkered. The “love-bombing” has not started yet, and when it starts it may not succeed, but at least the UK Government will have tried. Have you noticed that English TV sports commentators are now referring to GB athletes as « from Great Britain and Northern Ireland »? Sounds pompous and a wee bit ridiculous (the French don’t say: from France and the French West Indies » - although many of their track athletes come from there); but for me “GB & NI” is a telltale sign that the British Government has read the writing on the wall: ‘continue like this and within ten years it is reunion of NI to the RoI, independence for Scotland, and maybe too for Wales’. I think those countries, if Independent, would be welcomed into the EU; but I persist to think that it would be « a bad good idea » in view of all the problems and antagonisms that would arise. The EU has been and remains an entity where nationalism must coexist with the “vivre ensemble”: for this, I believe that a true devolution would be a better answer. Time will tell! PS: Catalonia has been an independent kingdom for a few years, with Louis XIV as King (and with Viceroys which have had a hard time governing…). The Spanish Government is in a similar situation as the British, and they have started (albeit timidly) a “love-bombing” - cf. the recent amnesty. The problem for both is that - for a strong centralizing Government - accepting true devolution is totally against their nature. It is like cutting one’s jammed arm to be free while the ship sinks… __ .

[@saddoncarrs6963]

@@christianfournier6862 You seem to have a lot of faith in the tory party's ability to change its constitutional stance - I'd personally say there's a more likely chance of a leopard changing its spots. Their present strategy to saving the union seems to be wrapping the population of all 4 nations in union flags and getting us to sing Rule Britannia - they're even talking of building a royal yacht. In any case, I'd argue that following the economic disaster which is brexit, plus the cost of seeing the nation through covid, the UK government simply won't have enough wealth to invest sufficient funds in Scotland to make a difference. With regard to broadcasting, yes, the English commentators have recently been making an effort. Essentially, all 4 UK nations get English TV with the odd local add-on bits. Almost all broadcasting comes from London and the commentators have always struggled with who their audience is - English or British? Nowadays, they make a bit more of an effort - e.g. on national news, when talking about an educational issue, they'll now qualify it by stating "in England" (they're unlikely to broadcast an item on Scottish, Welsh or NI education). They've also stopped referring to Andy Murray as Scottish when he loses and British when he wins. Steps in the right direction, but with regard to saving the union I'd say, too little, too late. As I mentioned earlier, the Scottish electorate did vote to remain in the UK. They didn't want any splitting of nations or unions, but they are where they are. It would certainly be preferable for the EU to have the UK return to the fold intact, but the way Westminster is rushing new trade deals through, that just ain't going to happen. They're making a return as difficult as they can. The English are going down that route, so the UK has to go down that route. The only alternative for the other nations (if that's what they want) is to split from the UK - no level of devolution would get them back in the EU. I'd say it is very likely that the Scots will vote for independence within the next ten years in the hope that they can enjoy a "vivre ensemble" with the EU, in preference to one with the UK. They did want both, but that choice was taken from them.

[@garybranch807]

@@christianfournier6862 wonderfully put - I salute a Frenchman with such a deep understanding of the UK and the countrymen who make it up. As a UK man, made from English, Welsh and Scots we have been heading for disaster since we lost so much of our intelligence, common sense (from a cultural prospective) and fabric of our society in the trenches of WW1, a war the UK should never had entered with hindsight. Unlike any other European nation, the UK has undertaken such a societal change over the past hundred years due to the damage of WW1, that a very conservative (not the party) nation of people (from all the countries that make it up) are so deeply hurt by the political elites that have so poorly served us over the past century (Churchill excepted at the darkest of moments, but not at other times), that the peoples of this island feel that breaking up may give everyone a new start, smaller nations able to find new paths to overcome a century of downward fragmentation. We maybe overall richer, but the economy is so geared that many will feel less well off financially and most people feel that they have lost so much that can not have a monetary value put on it, but which makes us a happy and cohesive society. The UK may have been on the winning side of the physical battles of war, but ultimately we totally lost them and we became a broken people, still creative, but destroyed by our leaders and the demands of the USA to become the global power. Maybe we have something in common with Russia; a pride at winning the physical battle, but ultimately it hurting so much that we turn inwardly. This is so sad for a nation that once was able to understand trade and how to be nimble and successful at creating win win situations. It is so ironic that the mistakes of the past come to haunt you a hundred years later. 1916 (Battle of the Somme) - 2016 (Brexit) RIP UK.

[@Detector1977]

Well, all signs points to an antagonistic relationship which has been obvious since B. Johnson took power.

[@jeant763]

No warm or friendly relationship ahead then, a cold war between the UK and EU 🤔

[@Conservator.]

I found the video, thank you very much! 😉

[@Conservator.]

The current UK government wants to diverge as much as possible to get a competitive advantage on the EU and it has shown not to be trustworthy. 🤔

[@saddoncarrs6963]

A cold war between England and EU, perhaps.

[@johncapo2843]

I dont see anyway anyone at the EU wanting to do Boris any favors alot of these issues will end in EU court, the UK will ignore them the world will then have to take sides.( most will go with the EU due to its size) this where the EU will then squeeze the hell out of the UK ( PYTHON )

[@rhobatbrynjones7374]

Boris Johnson represents the pinnacle of a resurgent English nationalism, where to be English is not be European. His cavalier attitude to Ireland has a long history and he is now seeking to impose a Greater England model on the nations of Scotland and Wales. Johnson appears to be adopting a union of the English speaking people's approach where a supine relationship to the USA is more important than the nations of the current Union and our major trading partner, the EU.

[@garyb455]

The UK and EU has had no growth for decades because of EU policies. Consider how much the EU has already declined relative to the United States. Fifteen years ago, according to the IMF, the GDP of the Eurozone was just under $14 trillion, while the U.S. economy was marginally bigger. Today, the Eurozone’s GDP is just under $15 trillion, a modest rise by any standards. But the U.S.’s GDP has roared ahead to $25 trillion, making its economy 60 per cent bigger than the Eurozone. That’s a lot of relative economic decline for the Euro area in just a decade and a half. The failure of Europe to keep pace with America has taken its toll on living standards. The average EU country is now poorer per head than every state in America bar Idaho and Mississippi. The EU is a dismal failure just look at the facts and figures !

[@franwalsh9297]

ALL GOODS PRODUCED IN THE UK. SHOULD HAVE TO ENTER THE EU through the Greek islands

[@johncapo2843]

why is the Ambassador hiding half his face

[@gloin10]

"The Framework of New EU UK Relations..."? Not very hopeful, if Sir Ivan Rogers is to be believed...

[@ab-ym3bf]

So far he has been the only reasonable, believable Englishmen who can argue his case.

[@gloin10]

@@ab-ym3bf Unfortunately, being "...reasonable, believable..." was the reason he was fired... Speaking truth to British power during the temporary - we hope - insanity of Brixit was not a career enhancing move for Sir Ivan...

[@ab-ym3bf]

@@gloin10 so true

[@ravindertalwar553]

Wonderful 💋 Presentation

[@johnwalsh6832]

Excuse the pung but as long the tories are in power there will always be a frosty relationship

[@raatroc]

The EU has no reason to help the UK in any way now. If Brexit would have, even minor, advantages that could help counter-EU forces (i.e. ultra right wing) and that's not what we want. The U.K. and the U.S. have gone in this direction with Trump and Johnson.

[@alexanderromanov737]

According to the Mirror, the following Nando's stores are currently shut: Leicester Dudley Hornchurch, Essex Basildon, Essex Sevenoaks, Kent Chiswick, London Bethnal Green, London Park Royal, London Kensington, London Hove, East Sussex Swindon, Wiltshire Manchester, Arndale branch Manchester, Oxford Road branch Manchester, White City branch Cardiff, Wales

[@yuutonosuri772]

Ok you guys will go on front lines this time around

[@DrWrapperband]

It's spelt Brexshiiiiiiiitttttttt.

[@bicyclemanNL]

Brit in NL, or should I say Englishman as passports are likely to be various shades of blue in the near future. British exceptionalism with a patriotic apppeal bought out the worst of many Brits. Sit by the river and watch the enemies of your bodies float by - Sun Tzu. The EU don;t have to do a thing, other than to be ready to negotiate as the Brits will fall into line eventually. It could be sooner if Johnson caves but is his signature worth anything - it would be sold to the public as 'we got the EU to bend'... took back control etc. Blue wall is cracking as reality kicks in. UK will still be a mess as it is reducing it's democracy day by day.

[@jmccullough662]

Very disingenuous. As we have seen with Switzerland, the EU only has interest in what it can control. Using words like ambitious is really only intended as a mask for that control.

[@luboskulhavy7769]

Wrong - it is Switzerland who joins the EU benefits like no other third country. EU is not cancelling the existing agreements but put stop to disproportional future agreements with Switzerland which is a tax haven and quite right wing.

[@samhartford8677]

I really do not understand why people think the EU should be some kind of a charity. We pay 1% of our GDP to have the power to do deals in our favour. That's the whole point of being in the EU.

[@psf8428]

Rogers is irrelevant, he just harps on about being right and predicting problems People in the UK have moved on

[@topcat8804]

...to disaster

[@YouD0ntSay]

HAHA! Rogers was right all along. Farage, Gove and Johnson were wrong all along.

[@billpugh58]

In your brexity head perhaps:)

[@soapytowel1565]

Yeh, moved on……in a downward & backwards direction for sure