The Future of Stocks: What to Expect in the Next 10 Years

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In today's video, we're diving deep into Vanguard's Market Outlook for 2023, exploring their annualized returns and projections for the next 10 years. Many are talking about the potential for a "lost decade" in investing, so let's see what Vanguard has to say about it.
First and foremost, we'll break down Vanguard's Capital Markets Model (VCMM), a powerful financial simulation engine that drives their investment outlook. It incorporates three key factors: the Global Dynamic Model, Attribution Models, and a Simulation Engine to model the probability of distribution of outcomes. These elements come together to shape their projections.
Next, we discuss the fixed-income category, focusing on bonds. While bonds show slightly higher average yields, we touch on why some investors may not favor them.
We'll then take a look at Vanguard's proprietary economic tracking model and how it has been relatively accurate in predicting GDP growth. We highlight key points such as the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), wage growth, and employment trends, all of which have significant implications for the economy and financial markets.
Vanguard's view on interest rates is crucial, and we discuss their expectations for policy rates and rate cuts. Interest rates play a pivotal role in shaping investment strategies and returns.
Lastly, we address the possibility of a recession. Vanguard's baseline expectation is a recession within the next 18 months, but they peg the probability at about 70%, which is more optimistic than their previous view of over 90%.
Thank you for watching, and have a prosperous day!
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If we haven’t met before - Hey 👋 I’m Marko, and I’ve been investing since 2006, and I got my finance degree in 2010. My mission is to provide my viewers with actionable content that enables them to create financial wealth. My videos reflect my real-world experience as a real estate investor, stock market investor, student of finance, and entrepreneur.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. These videos are for educational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning, at NO additional cost to you, I may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, this does not impact my opinion.

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

Join My Private Community - WhiteBoard Finance University: www.wbfuniversity.com Use the code "VANGUARD20" For 20% OFF! WBFU Includes: 🎥 4 Full-Length Courses (Stocks, Real Estate, Budgeting, Increasing Income) 🧠 Over 50+ exclusive videos, and new ones every week 📊 Full transparency into my portfolio (every buy and sell I make) 💬 Access to our private community and live chat with 100+ members ❓ Weekly Q&A Discussion and Livestream with Marko 🛠 Exclusive Tools & Spreadsheets 👨‍🔬 Monthly Guest Expert Livestreams

[@raymondbohrer8299]

to anyone reading this I signed up for WBFU last week. if you are considering this it is 100% worth it. Marko is in there almost every day.

[@khadijasajid457]

I've come to realize that the key to amassing wealth lies in making sound investments. I purchased my first home at the age of 21 for $87,000 and sold it for $197,000. My second home, acquired for $170,000, was later sold for $320,000, and my third property, purchased at $300,000, fetched $589,000, with buyers covering all closing costs and expenses. Not reaching a million before retirement feels like an unfulfilled goal.

[@tahirisaid2693]

I'm exploring different investment opportunities and would appreciate others' insights on this matter.,

[@tahirisaid2693]

Thanks to these recommendations, I successfully located her online profile and have already reached out to her with a message.-

[@RayJones-sp7ee]

All US three averages are a rollercoaster ytd. What can I do differently? Buying bonds is not for me, I reckon some people are making a killing with the bears? I cashed out early, now I have less than a 200k to get into the markets with. Any

[@VICTORIAJordan-s5w]

Don't be in a hurry to get back in. The market needs several days of strong performance to signal that the downturn might be over; It's a time to be largely, if not entirely, in cash

[@HermanOberg]

SOFI, TSLA NVDA, I also included MSFT and ServiceNow, as well as some energy plays like WFRD stock.

[@VICTORIAJordan-s5w]

Its unclear which stocks and sectors will lead the market in the next uptrend. Stay away from the stock market if you do not have guidance from a plannner and investment strategist. My finances have been in order since I got a wealth planner like Monica with a 600 M AUM working for me.

[@AnnaMoore-]

Who is this Monica you speak about? I have been searching for an advisor who can direct us on where the economy is headed next?

[@VICTORIAJordan-s5w]

Monica Mary Strigle just do your own research you’d find details. No kidding I have made a 218% gain since began rebalancing as many times as she suggested. The bear market isn’t so bad if you know where to look.

[@raymondbohrer8299]

Hey Marko! Long time subscriber that hasnt commented much lately. I joined WBFU last week and just wantd to say that I am loving it! I sent you a DM inside the community and just filled out your feedback survey yesterday. For anyone reading this comment, Marko is 100% legit and has created something really special. He genuinely cares about his audience and is in the community every day.

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

Thank you so much! I think I have an idea who you based on your username lol. I really appreciate it!!!

[@AnnaFed015]

Building steady income is quite difficult for newbies...

[@Karenlisa1]

John Desmond Heppolette has been a significant step in my financial life journey, providing valuable knowledge actionable advice and motivational content. His supportive community has boosted my confidence,

[@Windarti30]

I just discovered his exceptional resume when I searched his name online, I consider it a blessing that I discovered this comment area

[@chartuck]

I will continue investing in VTSAX and the rest into Ally HYS. Risk free 4.4% APY is hard to beat. When that APY drops to an amount too low then I will put even more into VTSAX. If stuff really hits the fan and everyone loses their jobs then I will look into more real estate transactions. You're the best Marco.

[@aureliobjm]

Scholars who study the stock market’s historical performance estimate that over time, the payment (and reinvestment, and compounding) of dividends have contributed anywhere from 30% to 90% of the S&P 500’s total returns. I want to spread across $400k into profit yielding dividend equities but unsure of which to get into.

[@georgeh.5126]

Simply put, if you’re not investing in dividend stocks, you’re doing it wrong.

[@josephbush]

I stopped paying attention to and following these KZbinrs' financial advice since, in the end, I wind up with a bewildering assortment of stocks and don't know when to sell. Actually, all I needed to do was take advantage of the situation and benefit. I've been working with a coach for some time, and in a short period of time, I turned over over $800K in earnings.

[@MarvishaN]

@josephbush Interesting you say that. If you don't mind me asking, have you always had guidance?

[@MarvishaN]

@josephbush This reference seems valid.. Just looked up her full name on my browser and found her website without sweat, over 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it

[@BrettANordsiek]

The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?

[@Tonyham198]

Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. hence I will suggest you get yourself a financial-Advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist

[@andersonedward787]

Having an lnvestment advser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near-retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for a year now mostly because I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $320K in profits so far, Its clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know that Investment advisors know.

[@brianwhitehawker1756]

Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

[@andersonedward787]

My advisor is .LEILA SIMOES PINTO. You can easily look her up, she has years of financial market experience.

[@codeblue11]

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

[@anafernandez9598]

Your videos are timely and wise. You do a great job of illustrating what may be complex, understandable to the lay person. You seem to target your information to an audience in your age / life stage. Having said this, you help all ages gain more understanding and more importantly, have money behavior for the long term. Thank you.

[@kent570253]

Mate your stuff is great, do not change anything. Your sense of humour always gets me. Keep it this way.

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

Much appreciated

[@mrslcom]

Tax consequences might influence investment decisions.

[@Jonesmatsunaga]

it is always good to have a financial plan. I work with a professional planner and fixed-income strategist in NY. the fixed income portion of your portfolio won't simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income.

[@Andres_853]

Very true, people downplay planners role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license-fiduciary advsors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience, I Liquidated 200k of 325k from my 401(k) it has yielded nearly 1 m after subsequent investments so far

[@hillarybriggs2561]

Looking for where to begin putting in some funds that will aid me after retirement. Saving up isn't giving anything in return

[@Muriel-1112]

@Sasha2cox How can I join in? I will be happy growing my money while giving a few of it away to charity, giving back is as good as receiving

[@Jonesmatsunaga]

@david18734 This is useful information; I copied her full name and pasted it into my browser; her website popped up immediately and her qualifications are excellent; thanks for sharing.

[@Jonesmatsunaga]

Great 🙏

[@kalyanvejalla]

Amazing video as always! Will share with my friends!!

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

Please do!

[@jeannettedrown7687]

i enjoy your videos. What do you think of selling covered calls? Do you ever sell them?

[@tubejim101]

Which High Yield Savings Account are you using?

[@SGS2sprint]

Variables in the equation is being defined slowly. The 4th turning is a process. These institutional processes of projecting outcomes is invalidated after Russians American war at Ukraine. And the fact the $ lost our control Energy prices.

[@Wythdrawl]

Large caps may put up a big fat 0 return for another decade.. nasdaq negative! What do you say?

[@blackvx]

Marko, thank you!

[@LuigiFan1305]

Everyday someone new cries about the recession that's on the way or already here but Stonks keep going up

[@highermountain476]

I can’t hear well

[@ApoplecticDialectics]

I wonder if we are approaching an economic singularity. Inasmuch as other technologies have disrupted finance, I think people who wave away the prospect of AI being incredibly disruptive (for better or worse) are making the "past performance is no guarantee..." error when it comes to disruptive events. Second, I think large parts of the economy have become occulted and their impact on the market overall is poorly understood. Third, I think our current situation may well be somewhat novel, in the sense that a whole lot of recession predictions have, so far, been way off. I don't know what to believe or where to put my money. In the short term I'm cycling my cash reserves through t-bills because why not, but I do not think were in a new normal. The new normal, whatever it is going to be, is yet to come. We're turning a corner and can see a few months ahead at best, given the curve of the road. I am not nearly as smart as people who study all of this for a living. But I am smart enough to know how wrong a lot of those smart people have been about a bunch of things so far.

[@beenieman79]

Wat up Marko!!

[@Gabrielcclvc02]

Great video!

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@oOBlahBlahOo12345]

This is EXACTLY the video I’ve been waiting for. Appreciate it, Marko!

[@ParasDara-ky6uo]

Nice video

[@tc3212]

Finally first comment on a Marko video! Thanks for the great content as always.

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

thanks for watching!!

[@donmynack]

What's the risk of the high yield saving account dropping the interest rate?

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

It typically follows what The Fed does with rates. When rates are low then its risk on again.

[@wbdharris]

12:18 same...I feel seen (or heard in this case).

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

haha!

[@Muricastuff]

Thoughts on mid cap index funds? Long term Roth investing

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

I buy small cap value

[@eagerbeever22]

If you are investing for short term bonds & CDs offer better risk/reward ratio but if you are investing for 5, 10 or longer number of years stocks & ETF offer much better risk / reward ratio .

[@mikederucki]

Vanguard was only 32-55% wrong from their 2013 report saying 6-9% over the next decade. Actual 13.29% I like what @CaptainBenjamins says below: "Just keep on contributing 15% or more of your paycheck into low cost index funds and get on with your life."

[@districtavarice]

There’s no way that stocks only return 5% over the next 10 years that would be so sad

[@chu-mingchang4071]

It's 5% annually, not 5% total. I think that's reasonable, even slightly optimistic.

[@TALLXXL]

pop off lol

[@NoemiSoria]

Alright Marco, I have to ask, are you now being sarcastic about the "sweet 5%". Because of you (if I recall correctly, you said stupid for leaving money in a regular bank savings) I switched over to a High Interest Savings Account and loooove it! Don't hold out.

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

Savers are still losers. If you’re earning 5% in a savings account and the price of everything you buy is going higher than 5%, you are losing purchasing power by keeping money in savings.

[@NoemiSoria]

@@WhiteBoardFinance lol I just can't win...

[@syrupsaleen]

Dude what happened to the hair 😮

[@fazotakeiteasy]

I think bitcoin solves all world financial problems.

[@noypitelekom9075]

pogiii

[@CaptainBenjamins]

Just keep on contributing 15% or more of your paycheck into low cost index funds and get on with your life. Lift weights, drink water, eat healthy, have sex, jump in the ocean, go running outside, and absolutely never ever stop investing. You do that and you'll be just fine.

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

Agreed! 😂

[@moneycessity]

Keep it simple! Amen.

[@imabeliever85]

Until you retire

[@jimmylegs06]

what about pausing my roth for 1 year to pay off debt?

[@Ymcdaj]

Most importantly give your life to Jesus christ

[@M.Morgan]

I’d say at this point, you gotta have cash on the side and exposure so that you don’t completely fumble during bearish times, just to come out with nothing but buying bags too high later on. Not a financial advisor, just my two cent of advice.

[@heatherholdings]

True, ever since the 2020 pandemic market crash, I’ve been investing from time to time with the help of a portfolio manager, and I can boldly testify to substantial benefits that comes along with it. Straight up, my initial investments worth around $250k has now generated big fat yields over the years, amassing nearly $1m as of today.

[@Castro-worldbravest]

@@heatherholdings ambitious! who is this professional guiding you please, if you dont mind me asking? only curious, no doubt having the right guidance is invaluable

[@heatherholdings]

I’m in business with "Katherine Nance Dietz" whose expertise in portfolio diversification is unsurpassed and client-focused, she's quite popular so it's right you do your research.

[@bbtank3000]

Marko is saving money on hair product with his new haircut. That says it all folks. Buckle up for cutting costs in the years ahead!

[@MSBJJ]

2% inflation? What are they smoking?

[@markamark123]

thank you white boy finance

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

You're most welcome

[@Nathanwell4t]

I recently made more purchases. Saving money for a market downturn is likewise a bad idea. There are numerous ways to look at recessions and depressions, we cannot always expect to make large returns, and taking chances is better than doing nothing. The bottom line is that you will achieve remarkable results by diversifying your portfolio and making wise decisions. My portfolio's raw earnings rose by $608k in just 5 months.

[@lacyseiler6712]

Despite my confidence in your advice, my recent stock purchases, and the fact that I am an AMC shareholder, I haven't been able to accumulate anything. I had already been in the hole for too long prior to the downturn. What's the investing procedure?

[@Nathanwell4t]

with the help of my consultant Camille Anne Hector, I've been investing for a while, and I couldn't be happier. Her company offers the broadest financial guidance currently accessible, has given me the best ROI while safeguarding my capital. It never squanders my money on dangerous speculation or poor risk-management techniques.

[@lacyseiler6712]

That is amazing! Since my portfolio has greatly deteriorated, I could really use this advisor's expertise. If you could suggest how to get her attention, I would be grateful.

[@Nathanwell4t]

Find her online, then get in touch with her. She’s well renowned for her work as a consequence of a recent Bloomberg piece. She has a homepage devoted to consultations.

[@liamwesley6882]

Long-term investors know that the market and economy will recover eventually, and are well positioned for the rebound. Personally still going hard on this crazy market and I'm doing just fine.

[@ISFASTER]

More thumbnails of you holding fake stacks of bills and a ridiculous face! 😆

[@officialMiaJackson]

There are lots of mixed opinions about stocks and there projection in the next coming years, I aim for short term solid gains from market correction and I'd definitely jump on the boat if I knew a thing or two about day-trading, but then again what do I really know? I'm just looking for the right moves to grow and hedge my stagnant reserve of $370k from inflation.

[@Tiff_Howell]

True, I thought I was doing alright profit wise, until I had the need to diversify, considering we’re not accustomed to such troubled markets and also because there are avenues lurking around in plain sight; if you know where to look. because of that I reached out to a financial advisor and in 10months, I was $58,000 shy away from $930,000 which is like 8x more than I make on my own and it wasn't some rocket-science strategy I applied, I just knew I needed a firm and reliable Expert to navigate better in these times.

[@officialMiaJackson]

Talking about financial advisor, do u consider anyone worthy of recommendations? I have about 100k to taste the waters now that large cap stocks are at a discount... thanks

[@Tiff_Howell]

I've shuffled through financial advisors and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, ''Lisa Ann Moberly'' turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.

[@officialMiaJackson]

Thanks so much! I found her page without hassle. I've contacted her and I hope she responds soon.

[@Robertgriffinne]

Hey, have you guys seen the market lately? My stock portfolio has taken quite a hit, My tech stocks have been plummeting. And also my energy sector investments have also been suffering. I have lost almost $120K in my stock portfolio. it's been a rough ride.

[@BenjaminMcLeod815]

I think there are a few factors at play. Inflation is rising, and the Fed is talking about interest rate hikes. That's spooking investors. Geopolitical tensions are playing a role too. The ongoing trade disputes and conflicts are making everyone nervous.

[@Alejandracamacho357]

When it comes to investing, the stock market can be a fantastic opportunity, but it is not without risk. My advisor thought me Diversification is essential to balance possible rewards and risk, to consider a combination of stocks, bonds, and other assets. It's a good idea to consult with a financial advisor who can help tailor your financial plan to your specific goals and circumstances

[@AliceHh_]

I get it, but I'm concerned about risk. What if I lose my savings in the market? Please who is this advisor that guides you?

[@Alejandracamacho357]

take guidance from ’NICOLE DESIREE Simon’ a well qualified California-based fiscal counselor with over a decade of experience, luckily her profile is widely visible on the internet, you should simply research.

[@AliceHh_]

excellent share, just inputted her full name on my computer and searched online, top-notch credentials. Ive seen commentaries about advisers, but not one looks this phenomenal.

[@papapickett7267]

Vanguards projections will most likely be wrong like everyone elses. Their projections will constantly change and be updated as new information comes in and realistically they are as clueless as everyone else. I will pay no mind to anything they have to say.

[@guilenzirs]

noooow you look like a financial advisor! haha

[@danielj3010]

5% is not bad at all!

[@m_rod9562]

Cash in HYS account @ 5% yield and DCA for my 401k. Ill just keep doing that for the foreseeable future, i think. Lol

[@WillBhart]

Marko dont let the bozos reshape your hairline that's never better than a regular haircut

[@khadijasajid457]

I've come to realize that the key to amassing wealth lies in making sound investments. I purchased my first home at the age of 21 for $87,000 and sold it for $197,000. My second home, acquired for $170,000, was later sold for $320,000, and my third property, purchased at $300,000, fetched $589,000, with buyers covering all closing costs and expenses. Not reaching a million before retirement feels like an unfulfilled goal.

[@MikeCline]

2% inflation Suuuuuure

[@aaronedgeworth2397]

Nice cutt bruh🔥

[@chrismattingly4947]

You can hear my thoughts??? 😳😳😳😁

[@Stefi747]

Man’s got the Jokic buzzcut

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

I was going to be Travis Kelsey for Halloween lol

[@MrRikkiRocket]

Nice video. Keep up your thoughtful and straightforward approach to educating us - clickbait and cute thumbnail pic not necessary.

[@S_L_W]

I like these simple, less click baity titles.

[@ICantSpellDawg]

Ex-us expected valuations have always been Fantasyland. I don't know where they could possibly be getting this data since those stocks have mostly lied down dead for decades

[@ds5651]

I want a lost decade. I can load up on cheap stocks. Don't plan on using any of my investments for 15-20 years. Good old S&P 500 Index Funds. 😴

[@rodneyjenkins6931]

Oh yeah, oh yeah, give me that sweet 5% interest. A man that is focused on the highest outcome...LOL😂😂

[@robertk1049]

Invest in Lego sets. Over time their value increases more than the stock market does.

[@pianokylemac]

Great info... and with a bonus happy ending to boot!

[@DoubleJabSlipRightHand]

synchrony bank 5.5% CDs.

[@johnattanlafontant9412]

Great info marko

[@beau6113]

Thank you!

[@joschujohann4717]

I LIKE THE CUT, G!

[@davidhastings2603]

Nice Job Marko❤

[@larsvargas]

My 73 yo mother would LOVE a lost decade if it means 5% on her savings for 10 years.

[@I_Am_Adrien]

W

[@gormanthomas8135]

I invested frustratingly through the lost decade of 2001-2011. It was hard to stay disciplined. I suspect many who poured money into hot markets over the last 3 years, will sour on the idea should we enter another decade of virtually non-existent returns.

[@juicebox86]

Thanks for sharing Marko!

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

My pleasure!

[@tc3212]

The lost decade...hopefully not repeating Japan in the 1990s.

[@Answers721]

Ecomomists are like climate scientists. Both can be wrong, but yet keep their jobs. Highly unlikely that the next 10 years will result in little stock growth.

[@1560727]

What’s your outlook for Bitcoin?

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

All time high summer of 2025

[@carltam9264]

@@WhiteBoardFinance why 2025?

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

@carltam9264 12-18 months after the halving

[@1560727]

@@WhiteBoardFinance please explain the halving; I don’t understand

[@marioori]

Marko, what’s happening to you?

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

?

[@darrendent8288]

When was this Vanguard statement printed? They’re really expecting more raises?

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

End of October

[@moneycessity]

Value stocks have been destroyed by growth stocks for a long time now. Are we finally going to see a comeback??

[@t3mpl3tw3]

I find it funny how I always hear him say welcome to white boy finance.

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

Maybe I am? 🤔

[@oOBlahBlahOo12345]

What about pulling money out that’s already invested in stocks to put into a high APY CD? Sounds like if there’s 70% chance of a recession in the next 18 months that it would be a good idea.

[@adamwilliams5516]

It's good information to share especially from Vanguard however absolutely no one can project that far into the future with any accuracy obviously. Diversify your portfolio, dollar cost average each month, lump sum when you can and don't ever stop investing.

[@RubyPC2]

So if you had to invest $10,000 today, where would you put it?

[@WhiteBoardFinance]

think of your net worth as a pie with different size slices. Allocate accordingly. I am outsized cash right now.

[@pmstff700]

I’m close to retirement age. Moved everything to short term t-bills, kept my 10% precious metals, some bitcoin…. though I find that confusing with all the techno involved, paid off my rental property and sitting right stock piling what I can ready to go if it all comes down:)

[@tolbintime]

Seems like a great time to be a dividend investor on a DRIP!

[@Nevy21]

F for our brother lost to the dividend investing cult