The Future of U.S.-China Relations - Joseph Nye

Joseph S. Nye, Jr. (Harvard Kennedy School) joins the Center for the Study of Economy & Society (CSES) at Cornell University on November 1, 2021 for the second lecture in "The American State in a Multipolar World" lecture series. The series features distinguished scholars and public intellectuals, including Francis Fukuyama, Joseph Nye, Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Andrew J. Bacevich, discussing the issues and choices facing the American state in a multipolar global economy and shifting world system.
Complete details for the series available at economyandsociety.org.
The transcript for this lecture is available at the link below:
www.economyandsociety.org/wp-...

[@dugalug1795]

Greetings from Brisbane, Australia. Some excellent points made by this speaker. He mentioned China's "economic coersion" of my country & the importance going forward of the US strengthening its alliances. It's true China stopped buying four key Australian exports: coal, wine, barley & seafood. It's been noted here in Australia that Canadian & US exports to China of these 4 commodities have surged in the last 12 months. Thanks for the solidarity guys! However, Australia's other exports to China have also surged this year to record-breaking annual amounts & China remains by far our largest export market, accounting for 40% of our total exports. Meanwhile, our politicians & media are busy preparing us for war with China over Taiwan Island which Australia, for the last 50 years under the One China Policy, regards as a province of China, not an independent country. The anti-China war propaganda has been relentless. I'm sure it's the same in other western nations. So much for not "demonising" China! I also agree with his point that problems at home need to be prioritised. In this context the economic inequality in the US has in my opinion reached grotesque & unsustainable levels, with the top 1% hoarding as much wealth as the bottom 90%. But I can almost guarantee that any president or congress person trying to tackle this major domestic issue in any meaningful way will be demonised as a "communist agitator". Let's not even get into the fact that 30-40% of the US electorate firmly believe that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent! The political divisions seem deep, bitter & irreconcilable, rendering the whole political system pretty dysfunctional. These two issues alone should be enough to keep the US political class very busy for the next few decades! (At least that would stop some of the troublemaking close to my home!)

[@deanbrunson259]

Very good mate (I lived in Perth for awhile) I think you've got. Respect, that is what every country wants, and the US is not accustomed to a country demanding it. The US must get used to playing second fiddle. GROG

[@fightignorance3598]

The US only has two political parties ( only 1 more party than China). Since each party vetos each other ( except thd anti China stance ), they might as well break in the 2 countries, so each could pursue their own version of ‘democracy’.

[@parklilys3108]

If someone hits you without reasons, what you do? Hit back of course. It is not the economic coercion against Australia by China, it is Australia doing America's bidding. As you mentioned that America exports more products to China, replacing Australian products. This is just beginning of suffering that will endure by Australians behaving an America's dog tail.

[@alaskavaper2490]

Yours is a very comprehensive and generally accurate view of a troubled former hegemon that is reduced to its militaristic foreign policy. America is now reduced to kneecapping Chinese efforts to grow its technology. These unethical tactics are tantamount to a declaration of war on China 🇨🇳. The US is flailing around and searching 🔍 some way to retard China’s progress. I was a youth during World War Two and the US was spared direct assault of the homeland. Now as as an old man living in the age of ICBMs and other weapons of great destruction I see a different outcome. The US must radically change foreign policy to one of cooperation with China and accepting our new role in a multilateral world order. 😢the US moved is toward BOOM, BOOM, BOOM. You are dead.

[@qingzhou9983]

The best talk on China I have heard so far. I just want to make one key point. Professor Nye did not make distinguish between offensive and defensive action. All the so-called PRC aggressions, Taiwan and South China Sea (11 dot lines), were Claimed without disputes by KMT (China at the time) after WWII (1945). So PRC never exceeds what ROC claimed in 1945. Hence PRC and its neighbors do view these as defensive claims by China. They are two important impacts of this point. One is that it is much easy for defensive act. It costs much less for PRC because of both the firm support of its own people and the close distance to its resources. the second is that the neighbors would not form alliance against PRC since they understand it as self-defense and not danger their own interest. So if US withdraw to second island chain, then US is in the defensive position and enjoy the huge benefits of that. PRC knows that too. So any worry about the domino effect of loss Taiwan is just silly.

[@youmaarludwig5647]

Nye has no words for America's misadventures and defines China as Xi instead of China.....a clean give away of his sense of exceptionalism

[@meggrobi]

Yes, no real self-analysis of the US and its many internal problems. China has many problems but it knows what they are and is working to solve them. That is something the US is definitely not doing. The $US should look to the English Pound and its decline to see how fast things change.

[@richiesd1]

@@meggrobi , America believes it’s “the end is history” already. So let them be.

[@VemiX1000]

Not sure how polls on what people think about China in south America are relevant. China makes trade partners and not allies (their own words). They come, make or not make a deal through negotiations and no strings attached and that is it. They recently made a tech and telecom deal with Cuba which is good but nobody is expecting to see a parade through Havana in honor of Xi. Everyone knows that a country can always negotiate and talk with the Chinese. As for the infamous "debt traps" and "charity", the road and belt initiative is not a charity project, the US was invited but declined to take part in it and the Chinese loans have flexibility in terms of repayment, have lower interest than any western loan and come without any strings attached. China is growing more powerful and influential and its options in geopolitics, defense capabilities and securing their hegemony over their region will grow and become stronger as long as there is room for economic growth domestically as well as how well they do business and strengthen diplomacy with others in their neighborhood. Fear of China waking up one morning and launching military invasions at their neighbors is baseless. Only time when Chinese officials take a strong confrontational stance is when outsiders are interfering in their domestic affairs like Taiwan or border disputes etc. Also, there will be no military takeover of Taiwan. Since it is largely dependent on the mainland for resources and trade it would be political and economic suicide to attempt secession. I trust Beijing knows what it's doing but I think it would be in the best interest for all if a stronger attempt is made to improve relations and deepen trade further with India as well as resolve the border dispute thing. At this point I am just surprised that the US didn't attempt to bring back McCarthy back from the dead.

[@isiahsteele7418]

Thanks for being the voice of reason!!!!!! We need more comrades like you're self to fight for peace internationally and domestically!!!! WAY TO GO!!!!

[@hubertschmitt4250]

It is amazing, you emphasize ideological differences and referre to human rights. Didn't USA zeroed this argument, since USA is neglecting human rights permanently e.g. Assange and committing war crimes and make regime change wars with hundred thousands of death e.g. Iraq and Syria. Just one thought regarding clima change, what is the contribution of all this war games to climate change?

[@simonlow3039]

500000 children kid in Syria is worth it: Albright

[@lowenblade4088]

What is this "rules-based" system Joe Nye said exists? How can there be a "rules based" anything when the rules don't apply to everyone? It doesn't work to insist on my rules, and you obey.

[@fungames24]

It works if you are brave enough and willing to fight for it. If you are not, then the problem is with you. Why are you less brave than the other party?

[@esoteric67]

The rules based system is no support for businesses by Chinese government. Even though the US government supports its business through government subsidies. Like Boeing gets 25% of its money of from government through pentagon. The US is the beast that speaks with a forked tongue 👅

[@isiahsteele7418]

This is an attempt to demolish the only international diplomatic institution we have and that is the United Nations and International Law!!! There IS NO OTHER OFFICIAL BODY FOR INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY!!!! US is NOT THE UNITED NATIONS but One of a 190 Countries with less than 5 % of the Global Population!!!

[@0311ohrah]

UN should set rules for international orders, and no one else !

[@fungames24]

@@0311ohrah If someone else sets the rules, what will you do? Do you report them to youtube?

[@alfredoleal2101]

Take care of your homeless population on every city in America built 70% of real road on the planet built hospitals on 10 days probay health care for your people that should be your priority.

[@huming66]

many of his assessment about China is based on narratives, but not facts

[@djhpsr900]

There is no doubt that many of the best Universities are in the US. I followed the talks with interest. I am an Indonesian University graduate but my discipline is medicine. My comment is therefore only based on general knowledge and multiple visits to the US and China vacationing. As regards the Sino American relations and the rising tensions it has created I can only liken it to a 5th grade experience when I faced the playground bully and took him down screaming, struggling and flailing . Normal and to be expected behavior. Democracy versus socialism/communism. The US gained independence 230something years ago and where are the indigenous people who lived there before the settlers came? China has a history of 5000 years or so. They still live there , no profitable real estate deals like a chest of beads and some dollars for an island. Perhaps we should let the issue of genocide and alleged reservations for the Uighurs rest. Safety was mentioned, I felt safer walking alone at midnight in Shanghai than in New York. When the US helped China join the WTO, China offered labor at lower prices in return for transfer of technology. Admittedly, more than beads but it may be considered fair I guess. Since its inception the US has engaged in multiple wars involving invasion and toppling of regimes. I just read Times, Newsweek , papers and watched CNN. Over the same period China has been invaded , occupied and humiliated by multiple western nations and Japan. Recorded History. The US rose to become a superpower in that time and China picked up the pieces and built itself up to become free of extreme poverty, having a middle class the size of the US population and advanced in the field of technology. The US spent 20 years and over 2 trillion dollars invading, occupying Afghanistan and fled the country overrun by Turbaned nomads leaving a number of US citizens and billions of weapons and equipment behind. And now it is “patrolling“ the South China Sea? The Chinese Navy has more warships than the US and its capacity to build more outstrips the US. China has hypersonic missiles that may cross the pacific in a few hours and missiles that cost significantly lower than US missiles All a matter of record. A limited war over Taiwan? Think again. Why not let it rest? Answer, it is politically incorrect to do so. Guess this is where the shoe pinches. But everyone can rightly tell me this is not my area of expertise. Another item from US News. Asking Congress to raise the debt ceiling or otherwise default. A debt of 30 trillion dollars. China holding US debt of over a trillion dollars. A 2 billion dollar budget to rebuild infrastructure shot down. 2 parties feuding non stop ( except for stance vs China). On top of all this a war with China ? Just musings of a bystander.

[@len2063]

Good points from our speaker

[@tonytan6547]

The real issues have nothing to do with ideologies.The slogan of Liberal Democracy vs Authoritarianism is just that USA is weaponizing the ideological differeces b'cos China is not interested in exporting/ forcing their system on others The actual issue is USA wants to maintain its Primacy n Hegemony so that it can continue to lord over other countries and dictate them

[@cooper1819]

Good lecture. Would think that if some reference to Chinese history & its philosophies would be useful as reference for how China could act and react to another large super powers. China had experienced various superpowers, foreign threats throughout its long history which much (Chinese) literature and studies. This would likely to be must read for senior Chinese officials, rather than Greek history. Would be very interesting to hear views of the future based on assumption that the Chinese would react based on its own history references.

[@bensonpechua3397]

The future of this relationship will depends on the USA pulling it south or upping it at least friendly normal w cooperation and respect

[@odilonduart]

Boa tarde!

[@kalipotmeng]

Prof. Nye is a voice of reason in the US, although full of the American exceptionalism. Well, he invented the notion of soft power after all. But he has limited understanding of China (I guess he doesn't speak Chinese, so no chance). He didn't get that the BRI is not an aid program. Among other things China builds infrastructure for other countries (in exchange for other things of course). So the US cannot compete with aid. Those countries cannot turn aid into infrastructure ! The US cannot offer infrastructure, so cannot compete. Prof. Nye completely ignored this point. It's true that China cannot match the US soft power, but a dose of good will will be a win for China.

[@kindface]

Nye is supposed to be a grandee in the intellectual halls of foreign policy and political thought. Yet, he trots off the same tired line about Uighurs without the slightest irony over how contentious/dubious that assertion is given how vigorously it has been variously debunked, challenged or pushed back (and not just by Beijing) for an utter lack of objective evidence. Mr Nye seems like a nice enough man so I hate to insult him but how do we take him serously? More to the point, if this someone who has been accorded guru status in the land's supposedly highest institution of learning for public administration and international relations, don't we have reasons to worry about Washington's intellectual rigour in policy decisions?

[@Cyberphunkisms]

35:00 oops.

[@hydroac9387]

A thoughtful discussion. China is a rising power...for the moment. I'm glad Mr. Nye mentioned demographics since it is one of the few areas that can be calculated and projected (e.g. it takes 40 years to get a 40 year old), and the impacts of population as age cadres is well known and can also be predicted. Much of the rest of the Great Power dynamics outlined by Mr. Nye is interesting but is opinion and speculation. China's medium and longer term threat isn't the USA but instead it's demographic collapse. China is the fastest aging country in the world. In about 2018 the average Chinese was older than the average American. An analysis of the 2020 Chinese census data by Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (a Chinese think tank) shows that by 2080 there will be more post-65 pensioners than workers, and that the current population of 1.3 billion will decline to less than 600 million by 2100. The recently updated UN report on China's imploding demographics largely agrees with the Shanghai think tank's projections. In the medium and long term it is hard to see China as a significant threat to the USA much less China being the new world hegemon if China has half-empty mega cities of pensioners. It is also a significant question how a society with more pensioners than workers can function, especially if China doesn't escape the middle income trap. In the meantime the USA is one of the few countries in the developed world that has a stable demography, which is mainly due to significant immigration and a decent birth rate. It is interesting that by 2100 America may have a larger (and much younger) population than China. What remains to be seen is how China's quickly-aging population, declining worker force, and increasing social spending on pensioners will impact productivity and economic growth - which the CCP relies upon to show its legitimacy. At the least it is likely that modest growth in China's productivity (which is low by comparison to countries like the USA and Germany) will slow down significantly, and that growth will plateau below what the CCP needs to meet massive debt obligations and provide prosperity for its citizens. So far China has defied gravity on many issues, and perhaps the CCP will find a solution. Mr. Nye also makes very good points on America's strengths (energy and food independence, reserve currency, technology/innovation, immigration & good demographics), which are also China's weaknesses (major energy and food importer; RMB not likely to be a reserve currency any time soon due to capital controls, no likely immigration). It is curious that these are mirror images of each other.

[@bensonpechua3397]

The robotics, Ai and 5 G will take care of demographics

[@dav5253]

“Human right” in America”? Have you asked black Americans, Mexican Americans, let alone the Native Americans?

[@Overthere_World]

This is the best speech of analyzing Sino-US relations I have heard so far. It is sensible and objective. In comparison, American idealism is not consistent, while China has been dominated by idealism since 1949. In history, idealism usually develops to extremes. Hitler, Stalin, Mao Zedong, the Japanese, and many Muslim countries today, etc., were or are still driven by idealism and went to extremes until they failed. More radical idealism has appeared in China today. Xi doesn't know that China’s economic achievements and overall national strength are mainly due to its integration into the post-War world order, as well as the wisdom, diligence, and hard work of the Chinese people. Of course, the existing world order is not perfect, it should be improved and perfected, and the United States is not perfect either. However, China has not realized the fatal flaws in its own culture since ancient times. As China has begun to export more and more of its cultural traditions and values ​​to the world in recent years, these flaws have been seen by most countries. And it has not been widely recognized and accepted. The root cause of the rapid deterioration of Sino-US relations in recent years is the difference in values, and part of the reason is that the United States is reluctant to lose its position as the world's No. 1. The Chinese really need this kind of healthy competition with the United States and Western developed countries. Of cause, American also have to face its domestic problems.

[@isiahsteele7418]

I think you're kind of confused? Idealism too is behind US dominance around the world, you did not mention that so I can't trust you're judgement on this subject!! China is a SECULAR Country!!!! It's not based on Idealism but Materialism. Dialectical Materialism which means there is no other but Man and the Material World and thats why China sees problems as material and does material things to get results!!!! The West on the other hand relies on magic and gods and there for the population gets a better deal in death!!! Idealism vs Materialism!!!!

[@Overthere_World]

@@isiahsteele7418 I think you are quite wrong about Chinese cultural, you know only a very little about China. Most of Chinese didn't know what is Materialism. The Chinese Communist Party calls itself a Materialist, but in fact few people really understand what Marxism and materialism are, especially Xi Jinping, who doesn't understand Marxism at all.

[@Overthere_World]

@@isiahsteele7418 And, of course, it is impossible for Marx to foresee what would happen more than 100 years after his death, and Marxist materialism also needs to develop and evolve. The world today and the era in which Marx lived have undergone tremendous changes. As for the CCP, they abide by the Marx doctrine as they understood cannot succeed inevitably.

[@iphone8046]

Lee Kwan Yew didn’t expect the US to be so hostile to immigrants and foreigners in recent years!! Mostly led by Trump and the hawks in Washington DC. If LKY saw that he would think twice about his statement.

[@prasadbinoy]

Excellent presentation. Please provide the script (or the link thereof) here as well for further reading and research. Prof. Nye was careful in presenting the "strategic ambiguity" side of the American foreign policy. The Biden administration has reiterated its commitment to the "Taiwan Act" that will oblige America to come to the aid of Taiwan if its sovereignty were threatened by the Chinese. This is not an ambiguous position. The question is whether the US will really come to Taiwan's assistance if the situation so warranted. Jim Baker, the former Secretary of State, had once clearly stated that the US would be "at war" with China if it tried to forcibly change Taiwan's status quo. Following the precipitous withdrawal of America from Afghanistan, the US credibility as a guarantor of security among the weaker countries has suffered a great deal.

[@CSESVideo]

Thank you very much for the thoughtful comment. We hope to have the transcript available in the next few days and will post a link in the video description and on our website at economyandsociety.org.

[@CSESVideo]

A copy of the transcript can now be found here: www.economyandsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/CSES-Lecture-Transcript_Joseph-Nye_The-Future-of-U.S.-China-Relations.pdf

[@prasadbinoy]

@@jhrusa8125 Will this be that easy? I doubt it. Prof Nye and other scholars, to avoid a bloody outbreak and unpredictable escalation, counsel cooperation and coexistence between the US and China. The fact, however, is that China has become such a powerful and ambitious imperial power that one day the US-led group of nations will have to come up with a grand strategy to break up the Chinese expansionist empire. I like to give the analogy of the disintegration of the Ottoman empire where the European powers had to come together to contain the Turkish Ottoman as it had become immensely atrocious and expansionist. The Realist school will argue to stop China now in its track before it becomes too late.

[@prasadbinoy]

@@CSESVideo Thanks a lot. Providing a transcript of the talk is extremely helpful because in just listening to the recording many names and expressions are missed and create confusion...Keep up the great work..Best,

[@shawnhennity1769]

@@jhrusa8125 This is the mindset when we went to the Iraq war and Afghanistan war. No politicians and generals would think that we would drag into the longest war and waste trillions in our history and retreat disgracefully. We are good at miscalculating things.

[@joem0088]

"The future of US China Relations" can be seen in US national security strategy documents. US see China as serious threat, as peer competitor. And it's self fulfilling. You lecture China, China lectures you back etc What goes around comes around.

[@edwaeable]

2050年 见。 lets meet you in 2050 and see if your prediction is correct.

[@MrBobngps]

Pl stop being a demon with your policy, the world wants peace not war