What are your thoughts on the current housing prices and rates? Also, please share this video. KZbin doesn't notify my subscribers when videos go live anymore.
@th1nk.OUTLOUD2 жыл бұрын
Over priced Over valued && what are your movements via #bitcoin 😝
@TonyJacobsenUNBREAKABLE2 жыл бұрын
I'm happy I was able to lock in 3.75 last October! Let's go!
@ryanbeymer2 жыл бұрын
14:50 - (Mort Rates + Elevated housing cost + % of housing in ppls budget) = Correction. Things are much different because the stakes are higher. A 10% loan on a 150k back in the late 70-80's wasn't catastrophic. Now days, throw a 10% loan on a 600k house and add in the percent of ppls budget to housing. There has to be quite a correction to get back to something a millennial with a family is going to commit to buy.
@VincentDiRe2 жыл бұрын
You're are not pompous! You base your statements on facts! How is that pompous!! Now, if I was Dave Ramsey's Vetted Advisor, yes I would call you pompous ;) When the rates started going up in 2003-4 they should have slowed their ascent and keep them stable as opposed to reverse them to ZIRP and (effective -ve rates) at the first sign of distress. This would have popped bubble, and helped vet out those that can't afford homes but instead learn to save for their homes. Instead, folks want their homes NOW and blew up their debt levels and raised prices to unnaffordable levels causing vicious circle
@ryanbeymer2 жыл бұрын
I'm in Boise Idaho area and I have a bead on the real estate for land/lots. The amount of supply has increased significantly just in the last 3 weeks. In fact a 1 acre lot hit the market yesterday for 60k which is completely unheard of. People/Developers/Builders are dumping like crazy.
@NaamWynn2 жыл бұрын
Dude this is an excellent analysis. You are one of the best finance KZbinrs! #truth
@TheotisJames2 жыл бұрын
Is the best*
@daveinthemedctr66402 жыл бұрын
#truth
@donmynack2 жыл бұрын
This is my primary financial watch on KZbin. Always solid advice here.
@jonathanborowski73232 жыл бұрын
Well said Marko... I follow a bunch of YT finance channels, and yours is 100% in the top tier among the 50-75+ that I follow. Don't let the YT algorithm ever deter you from continuously producing great and unique content.
@WhiteBoardFinance2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Jon that means a lot!
@Joshua-cs6gj2 жыл бұрын
@@WhiteBoardFinance let us know when you start buying homes for -80% off from what they’re worth today… I’ll be waiting too haha.
@charcoalc52 жыл бұрын
Easily the best finance channel on YT
@chris2ferUtoob2 жыл бұрын
If KZbin doesn't promote your videos then that just cements my poor feeling about YT and social media. Your content is always well-founded and intelligent.
@Plantation19842 жыл бұрын
My wife and I do well, very little debt and currently live in a 620sq ft co-op near Long Island, with a 2-yr old. Even with our respectable salaries, equity in our current place, cash, etc. we can hardly afford to move into a bigger house. Long Island is out of control. You said don’t go above 28% net, we’ll never find a place within those parameters. Very frustrating market right now. Great videos though, bro!
@ritafong85872 жыл бұрын
This is one of the best financial channels!
@jonsfoster2 жыл бұрын
You are one of the top, perhaps the top, finance KZbinrs. Thank you for walking us through the numbers. It’s great to hear your perspective knowing you’ve studied this and have been doing this most of your life. Not many others on KZbin come from that perspective and no one communicates it like you do. Keep it up bro! Don’t let the algorithm get you down.
@WhiteBoardFinance2 жыл бұрын
Ty Jon that means a lot sir
@justcommenting49812 жыл бұрын
Shots fired with "37 of the same video with clickbait thumbnail." That is probably why you're not being shown more though, that's what the algorithm favors. I do appreciate the analysis and explanations this channel delivers though. It is very good.
@KingOfMadCows2 жыл бұрын
I don't expect things to get better for a long time, if at all. Too many people are sitting on super low mortgage rates. Unless a lot more houses get built or there's a truly massive crash that forces those people with extremely favorable mortgage rates to sell, prices are not coming down.
@WillyWooly2 жыл бұрын
Too many people want to buy and need to buy. Housing supply is low. My guess this was manufactured to make the housing prices go up just like the crappy subprime mortgage investments helped fuel prices. They purposely built less to squeeze the price to the moon.
@unknowndriver66522 жыл бұрын
@Passing Through how you know
@TonyJacobsenUNBREAKABLE2 жыл бұрын
This IS the best finance channel on YT. Your knowledge, mixed with real life experiences, is what sets you apart. Thanks for the info!
@joschujohann47172 жыл бұрын
“One of the best financial channels on KZbin” AND he’s from Ohio! Let’s go 💪
@rachelm762 жыл бұрын
Bummer about the KZbin algorithm. I've been waiting for this video because I do feel this is a quality channel and was interested in your thoughts. As far as my thoughts, I'm outside of DC, and I really hope this doesn't sustain. I've watched my local market the past decade, and it's crazy especially factoring in interest rates. I've regularly seen homes in $800k-1M price point selling for $100-200k over asking in the past couple months (that would have sold for $625-800k in 2019). Noticed a lot of home purchased and flipped for $200-300k in profit the past year. However, I have noticed homes are sitting longer and seeing a few price drops. The job market here is very strong though and could keep the market strong. We'll see. Thanks for the video!
@lukeclark73672 жыл бұрын
Anyone with an ARM loan just got hammered, here in AZ homes have gone to insane prices and if people cant see there has been a bubble brewing for a while they just dont get it.
@markowhiteboardfinance3gma662 жыл бұрын
⤴️📊 send a direct msg to me
@lawabidingcitizen50322 жыл бұрын
Great videos. I love them. I would love a video on how middle aged people 35-45 can start to increase wealth to be able to retire comfortably.
@jt57472 жыл бұрын
While there are some differences between now and 2008, we didn't have this level of inflation pushing up the prices of every item we purchase with no end in sight. It could be worse than 2008.
@Omar-et7sb2 жыл бұрын
It won't. There was a problem in 2006-7 that we have no evidence is present today. People who should NOT have been getting approved for loans were. Today's issue is one of supply, demand, supply chain constraints, and to a much lesser degree than Marko seems to imply, inflation too. But that's different than back then. Will prices correct? Most likely. Will demand cool off? Most likely. But this doesn't have to be "worse" than 2006-7 and in fact, I would bet it won't be.
@sfrealestatedealmaker60012 жыл бұрын
@@Omar-et7sb Way worst than 2008. Do a little research on the “everything bubble”. It’ll open your eyes. We’re in the reset now.
@Omar-et7sb2 жыл бұрын
@@sfrealestatedealmaker6001 You do you, but there is nothing on this video to "prove" some sort of bubble on housing that will be "worse" than last time. People have been publishing "end of the world" financial doom and gloom through every single year of the largest bull market ever (last decade). But you do you.
@jacobmoore6272 жыл бұрын
@@Omar-et7sb the fed has been artificially buying mortage back securities which has been keeping the price higher. What happens when they stop?
@Omar-et7sb2 жыл бұрын
@@jacobmoore627 You say "artificially" which makes it sound like a dark secret but that's in and of itself misleading to how the Fed works. Adding MBS to their balance sheet wasn't normal until 2008-ish when the banks were going to collapse due to the weakness of mortgage bonds (no evidence that is an issue today, but I digress). MBS's make up about a third of the Fed balance sheet (they bought some back in 2020). When they BUY them it's to stimulate spend when they LET THEM EXPIRE (what they are doing now) is to motivate private entities to carry them. It's a small way to slow cash from moving to try and slow down inflation. Will that work? I mean, maybe a little but inflation is very misunderstood and there's only so much a central bank can do. But that does not correlate the current market to 2008 in any way unless you decide to not look at any actual facts.
@cristinab22632 жыл бұрын
I always click on your videos BECAUSE they aren't clickbaity. Simple concepts with everyday application. And I like to listen to things that aren't just about budgeting, which I feel is what a lot of female finance KZbinrs tend to do. I'm in it for the long haul, not the month to month.
@Aaaa-ix7io2 жыл бұрын
Didn’t he say to buy Bitcoin a few months ago. I’m glad I ignored that.
@WhiteBoardFinance2 жыл бұрын
*years
@mrmiralg2 жыл бұрын
Let's get Marko some views. Please continue to give us this great content. I appreciate the honesty and calm delivery. So many channels get sucked into click baity thumbnails and talking about the same thing over and over. You continue to provide sound advice that I take seriously and I am part of the notification gang. Keep up the good work 👍🏾
@lucasdurham68302 жыл бұрын
Always an important reminder that owners always win, if you don’t own any assets you can’t benefit from the markets, great video Marko!
@AmpJelly2 жыл бұрын
The reason KZbin isn’t showing your videos is because your speaking facts and they don’t promote those who speak facts 💯💯
@johnbushur60802 жыл бұрын
Definitely commend Marco for his consistent and measured approach to these topics vs the majority of the clickbait out there.
@charlesfrusa50492 жыл бұрын
People still have the mentality "why should i rent, i can buy a home and it's building equity". With rents going up, many people will still buy (even if it's insane at these prices and rates)
@zdcampbell212 жыл бұрын
I work in mortgage, borrowers are qualified, lending is strict, and underwriting is way different than ever before. The housing market will not crash.
@Adks0072 жыл бұрын
For 16:04 Bro, please try to make videos as short as possible. Probably like this video or if possible, less than 10mins. Because people like scrolling the crappy reels than watching a meaningful video which is 20mins long. Marko you are the best. ⭐
@krufx2 жыл бұрын
Housing bubble starting to make me more nervous. I accepted a job out of state also planning to buy a single family house. With the interest rate is going up, i'm not sure if we can afford a $200k house with 5-6% interest rate. Ugh.
@josephkelleher88202 жыл бұрын
This is a great KZbin channel along with Scotty Kilmer and a few others.
@HowToExcelBlog2 жыл бұрын
"I don't care if this sounds pompous, it's the truth!" 🤣 I agree! Keep up the great work!
@benwintermute28042 жыл бұрын
Man what could you have done to piss off the algo? When you said it at the end, I realized I haven't seen your videos popping up as much....right when I need them the most!
@benwintermute28042 жыл бұрын
Well there's the answer^
@WhiteBoardFinance2 жыл бұрын
you think that's me? LOL
@jessicacalaci73802 жыл бұрын
We were looking to close in Oct , now we will wait till either the rates or housing prices go down . Maybe next year ….
@DemocracyManifest2 жыл бұрын
Big love from Australia mate, your channel is hands down the best and your advice is second to none. Our real estate is ridiculous out here too as our Reserve Bank starts to increase our home loan rates time will tell how the housing sector will look in the future. Cheers bro.
@MichaelWitczak2 жыл бұрын
Crazy housing prices is an understatement lol. Just have cash on deck!!
@shaolinman2 жыл бұрын
It’s not only Millennials trying to buy a home. It’s also Baby Boomers as well. The rent and housing prices going up at the same time as the interest rates going up are making difficult to buy a house at this time when supply is super low and demand is high.
@desertguy13622 жыл бұрын
I remember 2021 some of my friends were making 6k a month on unemployment add record low interest rates and free money for no reason and PPP loans with little scrutiny and You're telling me NO one upstairs saw all the signs coming for another great recession.
@catholicfran2 жыл бұрын
When rona caused the world to end, one of my mother's acquaintances told her to apply for mortgage forbearance. Right away, I told her to not do that. Alot of people who did that are going to have their chickens come home to roost and soon! Yikes!
@taker522 жыл бұрын
Odd your friend was making that much. Because each state has a cap on unemployment on how much you can get paid. My state is around 800. The stimulus was about another 800 I believe. So I think your friend was lying to you.
@adamlitton59142 жыл бұрын
Your friends were definitely Bull shitting you with the $6K amount.
@desertguy13622 жыл бұрын
@@taker52 probably not 6k by himself both him and his gf living together were both unemployed so that's probably together.
@desertguy13622 жыл бұрын
@@catholicfran interesting why would mortgage forbearance be that bad it's gets added to the loan on the end.
@danielj30102 жыл бұрын
Just hit 7% on 30y fixed.. holy moly :)
@WhiteBoardFinance2 жыл бұрын
Crazy. It was roughly 5.4% when I recorded this video.
@BarryObaminable2 жыл бұрын
In my area.. housing prices are still going up. Its just not going up as fast with the riding interest rates
@MarkNoldy2 жыл бұрын
People who did a mtg refinance 2020 are feeling fortunate.
@netomilt2 жыл бұрын
I appreciate the honesty at the end. Keep up the good honest work and you will get your day. Thanks.
@JC-ft4ri2 жыл бұрын
I've watched some of your videos and your outro made me subscribe. I can't stand clickbaiters and stupid YT thumbnails. I appreciate your educational background and the way your make your videos.
@PeterPaulMasigan2 жыл бұрын
You’re not lying, KZbin stopped showing your vids on my feed.
@kevinjiszler2 жыл бұрын
Commenting for the algorithm because your content rocks.
@WhiteBoardFinance2 жыл бұрын
🙏🙏🙏
@guillermoyelamo58162 жыл бұрын
Marko making an statement here ladies and gentlemen 🔥🔥🔥 best finance channel on YT. Period.
@straightdrive61922 жыл бұрын
Bubble will only bust based on how many people must have to sell bellow actual price , until there are enough people willing to sell below actual home prices will not fall .. my bet is because if crashing stock market and job loss, vanishing 401 ‘any people many will be forced to sell in coming months and next year .
@johnpadlo62 жыл бұрын
You are kick ass Marco, Everything you say is dead on. I wish I had access this type of information and mentoring when I was younger. I would be long retired by now. Love the channel.
@afordh2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Marko, been consuming your quality content for awhile…ever since your first guest appearance with George Gammon. I’ll indeed keep sharing! Cheers buddy.
@MortSociety2 жыл бұрын
Found your channel today. You've earned a subscriber. I haven't found another channel like yours; who is actually out here changing people's perspective about life.
@godzillacat12912 жыл бұрын
I was wondering why I hadn't seen any of your videos in my feed lately. I literally just typed in whiteboard finance because I was looking for your response on the raise in rates. Your videos are always my go to.
@catholicfran2 жыл бұрын
Home prices are insane rn. Even homes in shady neighborhoods here in SoCal are over half a million😱!!!!! A 3bed/2bath home rents out for $3400-4500. also, in not so great neighborhoods. Crazy, right?! I'm glad my rate is low, fixed and we have LOTS of equity that we've chosen to leave untouched. We were going to build onto our home but we're going to ride it out. Instead, we're going to see what comes available on the market later😉
@rubixcubesolve2 жыл бұрын
So should I buy a house late next year? First time I’d be buying a house
@banyo862 жыл бұрын
Haven’t seen your vids in a while like you said but I’m glad I saw this one today.
@Gabrielle..2 жыл бұрын
Nobody can become financially successful overnight. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals.
@lordviraj2 жыл бұрын
This is the problem! Most times people with little or no knowledge of the stock market try investing by themselves. It once happened to me, then I learned my lesson and contacted a US-based finance consultant by name WILLIAMS T KEVIN and everything changed. I started enjoying huge returns from my investment..
@lordviraj2 жыл бұрын
@Megan Cheryl His available on telegam with the name below.
@lordviraj2 жыл бұрын
@Megan Cheryl Earnwithkevin.
@ivymadanhennion81082 жыл бұрын
Speaking of being successful. I know I'm blessed if not I wouldn't have met someone who is well accredited as Williams T. Kevin.
@Jungernaut2 жыл бұрын
🔥🔥🔥 FIRE VIDEO KEEP IT UP
@WhiteBoardFinance2 жыл бұрын
Ty Brian! You're crushing it as well bro keep it up :)
@Ydiventuregroup2 жыл бұрын
Luv your videos and I saw that I was not getting much notifications. Glad to hear this info perfect time for me. U told me back in 2020 about the low rate and free money, u I followed your step by step and got a low interest loan from the Feds. Thank u so much.
@markowhiteboardfinance3gma662 жыл бұрын
⤴️📊 thanks , send me a direct msg
@JOGA_Wills2 жыл бұрын
A market is no longer a market if no one can buy, and no one can sell. Housing prices here in Phoenix are already being clipped 10-15%. But who's buying. [MLO]
@ITubeYouK2 жыл бұрын
You are definitely the best finance channel on YT. Keep up the excellent work.
@randyjames16952 жыл бұрын
Houses in the Seattle area are starting to sit on the market longer and longer and selling for under the asking price
@pianoman32552 жыл бұрын
Same here in Tampa. The only ones thY are selling are those who are doing price cuts
@joebgallegos2 жыл бұрын
“Can it fit in my monthly budget?” That is spot on American. Great vid as always!
@Funded...2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for being down to earth and transparent. KZbin doesn’t want to show quality education anymore. Keep it up Marko
@jessechen6272 жыл бұрын
Accountant here. Love your channel. Informative and unbiased. Thanks.
@BigZachDaddyproductions2 жыл бұрын
I think we are due for a major correction. A lot of foreclosures coming and so much capitol gain losses.
@oshahid19832 жыл бұрын
no way man...As long as people have jobs and credit, they can afford to make the payments. Keep in mind that a lot of people have a lot of equity in there homes. so people are able to burrow against that. We will never see large amount of foreclosures. But....who knows....
@BigZachDaddyproductions2 жыл бұрын
@@oshahid1983 I think unemployment will begin to rise here soon due to a lack of people who want to work and a struggling economy. At that point there will be a lot of foreclosures imo.
@coxmagic45572 жыл бұрын
I go to Marko whenever I want the real scoop.
@eugenebotchway33912 жыл бұрын
Pompous Marco all day everyday 👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿
@drewperez33162 жыл бұрын
Love that last 15 seconds. You the man, Marko!
@bkeith18532 жыл бұрын
It’s not crashing here in the Northwest yet, there is not enough inventory and not many people moving out of homes that they bought at a historic low interest rate.
@marktwain5802 жыл бұрын
I raised my rent from $300 to $450 two years ago. I’ll continue to live below my means while forging ahead toward land.
@contactme13332 жыл бұрын
Message me mark now on my number 👆👆
@morecowbell2352 жыл бұрын
Great video thanks. Although, I'm not sure about using a landscaping job opportunity as a talking point for low unemployment.
@jhonocampo31872 жыл бұрын
Marco, I've been watching you and your horrible hand writing on the white board for a long time. Is OK to say you're on of the best on the tube because you are. I believe a lot of us will grow old watching you 😆
@shukuraltay67812 жыл бұрын
When we look back everything make totally sense but when we look forward everything is confusing.
@sonjacruz542 жыл бұрын
TRUTH! house prices, rent prices, both are crazy !$!$!$ I've been wondering when your next video was coming along. Thanks for the data analysis and review.
@ryanraines14692 жыл бұрын
Echoing, best finance KZbin channel . Great personality, authentic, knowledgeable with education to back it up and entertaining
@Mike-zg1do2 жыл бұрын
Bring back the outtro's they are always a good laugh. Keep up the good work dude 👍
@Rojass912 жыл бұрын
" You are following one of the best finance channels in KZbin". I have to agree with you Marcos. As a follower I really appreciate your combination of knowledge and sincerity. You are truly the best channel I've found and thank you so much for your advise and honesty. Good channels are like investments. Those built based on true knowledge will grow and prevail. Cheap click baiting videos channels will make it nowhere long term. I recently created my M1 Finance and I love it, currently working on my pie and already investing in two. Keep it up and don't be afraid to say you are "the best channel", you have earned our respect and its good to hear you acknowledge that. Keep it up.
@NoirEtBlancVie2 жыл бұрын
Dang Marko, suit is looking FRESH!!!!! My man!
@ericschmid76162 жыл бұрын
Love your content Marko. But I can’t get by the fact that interest rates have been basically at zero for over a Decade. The fed has been purchasing assets since 2008 in the form of mbs. The fed raised interest rates yesterday and bond yields AND stocks BOTH went down today. How is it that this is not correlated to the “cure” of the Great Recession. Are we not heading for a “greater depression “.
@ShawnXDIVIDENDS2 жыл бұрын
I just need a good balance between Interest rates, property value, and ARV. Thanks for the insight Marko.
@DFoster4542 жыл бұрын
I'd love to move but won't because of interest rates. I'm locked in on a 15 year note at 3% for under $1,100 a month
@Casmige2 жыл бұрын
What you failed to realize in the 80s? Is that while interest rates were indeed high because of the inflation of the 1970s? Wages were also high as well. Wages have been sideways & stagnant since the 1990s & have not increased or kept up even nominally as that of the same period of inflation. In fact? I would assert that real “mean” wages have actually backpedaled & regressed.
@12IsaacE2 жыл бұрын
Don't dm this guy
@LATiiN4082 жыл бұрын
No. Thank you Marko.
@sohodon2 жыл бұрын
I swear you do a great job .. please keep going .. this information is gold!!
@NoMoneyG2 жыл бұрын
I spent a chunk of my down payment towards buying a house on a decent amount of BTC during the dip. I had to at that price! Cash flow is good & I'll just have to wait a little longer, but I'm in now hurry & hopefully it cools down in the coming year. I'm so orange pilled I not only drank the Kool-Aid, I ate the flavor packet & chased it with the Kool-Aid! lol Great info as always guy!
@WhiteBoardFinance2 жыл бұрын
LOL!
@acosrbkvat2 жыл бұрын
Hi Marko! Thank you for your videos! What do you think it’s smart thing to do in times like this, if you are planing to buy a house in a near future? Should we wait?
@northerna41582 жыл бұрын
On point financial advice with a touch of humor, that's our Marko. Cheers
@raulmartinez4292 жыл бұрын
Marko can you make another video about cars value and if is a good time to buy or sale?
@trendingwithjabroni46162 жыл бұрын
Please do not stop these videos!
@joaoescher4222 жыл бұрын
You’re great man! Been following u for so long and definitely come here for reliable content
@bluesraincancun92172 жыл бұрын
Thanks again for the info.
@plussorminus41182 жыл бұрын
By far one of the best finance channels on YT. Be the best at what you do and you’ll find success. You’re definitely on your way Marko; for now, we can consider this channel a hidden gem😉
@persakonomi51822 жыл бұрын
You are certainly the best on KZbin!!
@WhiteBoardFinance2 жыл бұрын
Wow, thanks!
@idrkok2 жыл бұрын
Is there any reason why someone couldn’t/shouldn’t buy now and refinance later?
@leilaaliyeva34692 жыл бұрын
I’m wondering about the same but buying later in the year when the house prices really drop.
@ordinaryman16032 жыл бұрын
glad just a correction 10%. media is saying housing crash..you are the expert.
@ElShowdeAndresGutierrez2 жыл бұрын
Hey Marko, towards the end you spoke about supply and demand and I agree with you there is not enough supply. In the last decade construction didn’t keep up because coming out of the recession in 2009 construction froze for several years. In addition, in the last few years a new buyer came into the game, the institutional buyer. Here in San Antonio they been buying hundreds of homes per month adding to the shortage. Investors like BlackRock and Zillow getting into the residential real estate to look for a profit. In Dallas DR Horton the largest builder built and entire neighborhood and instead of selling it, they rented it and sold as a package to Wall Street. AirB&B has also added to a short supply. If supply and demand doesn’t balance out, most of the analysts like Deustche Bank say house prices will continue to rise. Look at the population growth every decade. Prices have gone up but incomes too. Or if the banks start playing with the 40 yr mortgage affordability won’t be an issue anymore. Thanks for the great content and analysis.
@Salvitrojan72 жыл бұрын
Which neighborhood in Dallas did DR Horton rent out?
@riverjustice2 жыл бұрын
Keep at it! I always look for your old videos for advice on finance.
@contactme13332 жыл бұрын
Message me now on my number 👆👆
@VL-inquisitor2 жыл бұрын
Very informative. Good analysis backed by data and observed trends.
@shewaitsolutions92862 жыл бұрын
I used to be following your content a year ago regularly it disappeared from my algorithm for some reason. Now, you are back. I am glad your back. I know some channels-are using doomsday title for the following. Your content is great make sure to focus on point and assertive message instead of graphs and statistics. Thanks
@codythrive51542 жыл бұрын
Great video Marko. Looking nice in that coat. These are interesting times we are living in.
@zachanley21142 жыл бұрын
Loved that flex at the end. You are the best finance channel on KZbin. Concise, factual, wise, experienced, and enthusiastic. Way to go!
@davidandrews75442 жыл бұрын
Excellent information. Thank you!
@MSBJJ2 жыл бұрын
Yeah, this is exactly what I was referring to in your last video when you said the people paid so much for that flip home... Crazy. Instantly underwater with the looming crash and with bad rates compared to a couple years ago.
@grownupgaming2 жыл бұрын
14:39 My thoughts exactly, 15-20% drop, i am expecting a mild recession though. mild because unemployment is so low now, to have two periods of higher unemployment we could potentially still be at a non-horribly high percent.